W4190: Management and Policy Challenges in a Water-Scarce World

(Multistate Research Project)

Status: Inactive/Terminating

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SAES-422 Reports

Annual/Termination Reports:

[01/24/2020] [12/15/2021] [12/20/2022] [11/24/2023]

Date of Annual Report: 01/24/2020

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 10/03/2019 - 10/04/2019
Period the Report Covers: 10/26/2018 - 10/03/2019

Participants

Jeremiah Asher
Ariel Dinar
Eric Edwards
Mark Eiswerth
Margaret Gitau
Todd Guilfoos
Kristiana Hansen
Robert Hearne
Nathan Hendricks
Glenda Humiston
Kent Kovacs
Lucia Levers
Alexander Maas
Mehdi Nemati
Karen O'Neill
Glen O'Neill
Doug Parker
Krishna Paudel
Jeffrey Peterson
Nicolas Quintana Ashwell
Karina Schoengold
Jordan Suter
Garth Taylor
Travis Warziniack

Brief Summary of Minutes

Minutes Attachment:

meeting notes - 2019.docx

Accomplishments

Objective 1: Characterize water resource and human system response to climatic and anthropogenic perturbations.   California (Dinar, D’Odorico) Used available data from Riverside county over the past 20 years to explain farm parcel sales and values as affected by extreme droughts.   Colorado (Eisworth, Goemans, Suter) Completed a manuscript that uses hedonic method to evaluate the internalization of flood risk prior to and after a major flooding event in Boulder County, CO Designed laboratory economics experiments with colleagues at the University of Delaware that evaluate behavioral responses to risk and uncertainty associated with use of a common pool groundwater resource. Initiated collaborative work (with federal agencies) to assess the impacts of invasive weed species on the quality and human uses of the Western U.S. sagebrush biome, with linkages to wildfire, drought, and climate change.   Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Advised a graduate student who finished a dissertation estimating how climate change is projected to impact water use and aquifer saturated thickness in Kansas. The results were presented as a poster at an academic conference. Advised a graduate student writing a dissertation chapter on the effects of Renewable Fuels Standards on crop patterns and groundwater depletion in Kansas. The dissertation chapter has been submitted for presentation at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association meeting.   North Carolina (Edwards, Fell) Researchers at North Carolina State University secured grant funding from NOAA COCA/SARP: “Wastewater Infrastructure Tipping Points: Prioritizing Implementation of Climate Adaptation Plans in Decentralized Systems,” and engaged in outreach with farm managers and landowners to convey academic findings in the area of water and climate change.   Oklahoma (Mirchi) Collected data for developing a distributed hydrologic model of HUC8 watershed that contains Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) in the Middle Section of the Rio Grande River. Furthermore, projected surface water availability conditions generated by collaborators on USDA NIIFA funded project led by the University of Texas at El Paso were obtained for climate impact assessments.   Developed, calibrated, and validated a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of EBID. Assessed potential impacts of drier futures on different components of the main components of the water budget (i.e., streamflow, ET, and groundwater recharge). Preliminary results indicate that Elephant Butte will likely become a much less reliable surface water source in the future, which has important implications for the sustainability of irrigated agriculture in the Middle Rio Grande region. Increased variability and overall decline of surface water availability underscores the importance of groundwater management in the Mesilla Basin as a key element of water sustainability in the conjunctively managed system. The focus on the characterization of drier future was in response to stakeholder requests who were interested in learning about likely water sustainability challenges under plausible scenarios of declining surface water availability, which is overall consistent with observational streamflow records (e.g., San Marcial gaging station upstream of the Elephant Butte Reservoir in the Middle Rio Grande Region).    Indiana (Gitau) Researchers in Indiana have developed a reliable climate database for the entire Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) for use in hydrologic, water resources, and other applications in the basin (Mehan et al., 2019a). The resulting climate database is published as open access and accessible through the Purdue University Research Repository. A study using a suite of nine GCMs rather than ensemble data, so as to capture a band of influence of watershed responses with evaluations conducted across different timelines, provided insights into management practice suitability in relation to anticipated future climate.  Results showed that more nutrient losses could be expected due to extreme precipitation events with overland flow being a major transport pathway.   Idaho (Maas, Taylor) Served as a researcher for Idaho’s Climate-Economy Impacts Assessment, designed to help Idahoans better understand the economic risks and opportunities linked to Idaho’s changing climate.   US Forest Service (Warziniack) Scientists at the US Forest Service, in collaboration with Colorado State University have used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to estimate water yield across the coterminous US for 10 climate futures at the 4km x 4km scale and daily time step. The data will soon be archived and available for public download. Results are used to project impacts to water storage and likelihood of shortage in watersheds throughout the US. Scientists at the US Forest Service are working to update the Watershed Condition Classification Framework, specifically looking at the possibility of using newer forms of data (e.g., remote sensing) and whether or not national data can be combined with local knowledge for multi-scale assessments of watershed health throughout the country. Results will be used to study the impact of anthropogenic stressors on watershed health and aquatic biodiversity.   Objective 2: Quantify water demand and value of water in competing and complementary water uses. Arkansas (Kovacs) Examine the heterogeneity in time preferences of agricultural producers for an investment on-farm surface irrigation. Use a choice experiment to determine the value of groundwater services to the Arkansas public.  Jointly estimate the time preferences of the Arkansas public for those services. Use a dynamic programming model to estimate the total value of a groundwater stock and the responsiveness of that value to the groundwater levels for alternative degrees of lateral flows.   California (Dinar, D’Odorico) Estimated the effect of future climate change on cost of wastewater treatment and the social cost of not taking future climate change effects into consideration.   Colorado (Suter, Goemans, Eisworth) Collaboration with researchers at Nebraska (Mieno), CSU (Suter, Rouhi Rad), and ERS (Hrozenzic) evaluates the importance of including well yield in the estimation of the price elasticity of demand for groundwater. Estimated industrial water demands, including responsiveness to price and weather. Completed manuscript that uses data from a stated preference survey to evaluate economic values related to groundwater conservation in the Ogallala region. Completed analysis of complementarities between residential water and electricity use. Implemented field experiment with colleagues at ERS, University of Delaware, Johns Hopkins, and Albany State University related to monthly groundwater reporting in Colorado and Georgia that varied the incentives paid for participation in the program Estimated impacts of recent droughts on the western United States. Implemented field experiment with colleagues from ERS and Johns Hopkins that provided groundwater users in Colorado with social comparisons of annual groundwater use   Idaho (Maas, Taylor) Worked with the Palouse Basin Aquifer Committee to elicit residents’ preferences for new water sources. Worked with the Urban Water Innovation Network, a consortium of multiple academic institutions and key water industry partners with activities currently in six regions across the U.S. designed to address water challenges in a variety of contexts from coastal communities to high plain desserts. My research addresses a variety of water management issues, with an overarching goal of increasing society’s net benefit from limited water resources. For example, development and refinement of quantitative models and policy analyses will improve researchers and stakeholders’ ability to evaluate field, farm, and watershed-level impacts of alternative surface and ground-water policies. My co-authors and I have changed the vocabulary of water benefit-cost analysis to include hydro-externalities. Policy makers have gained understanding of the impact of climate change on surface water irrigation resources. Water planners have an accessible tool to calculate irrigation demand. Policy makers have gained insights and policy analyses tools of water prices, allocation and hydrologic externalities. Given policy makers in the Northwest a greater understanding of the non-market value and impacts of water related recreation and uses. Water planners have the tools to conduct correct cost/benefit analysis of water projects that includes conjunctive use externalities. The strong record of outreach and collaboration with local extension will be continued: 1. Consultations and testimony to the Governor’s Office and Idaho Legislature. 2. Presentations to the Mid-Snake River Commission 3. Presentations to Idaho Department of Water Resources and Idaho Water Board. 4. Planning meetings and workshops with the Bureau of Reclamation. 5. Meetings and presentations to Idaho’s water user groups, Farm Bureau, farmers, Idaho Water Users Association and irrigation districts. 6. Presentations to county and municipal officials such as county commissioners and Planning and Zoning Boards.   Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Published paper titled, “Land Market Valuation of Groundwater Availability.” This paper uses parcel-level land sales in Kansas to estimate how the availability of irrigation increases the market value of land and how the market valuation depends on the saturated thickness of the aquifer. A key contribution is that we estimate the marginal value of groundwater in storage and not just the average value. Paper accepted for publication titled, “Peer Effects in the Diffusion of Water Saving Agricultural Technologies.” This paper uses field-level irrigation technology data in Kansas to estimate the influence of peer growers on decisions to use dropped-nozzle irrigation systems. Estimates from this project indicate that adoption of dropped-nozzle irrigation technology would have been about 10% lower between 2001 and 2014 in the absence of any peer grower influence. Additionally, it is shown that growers adopt dropped-nozzle technologies in response to higher energy prices.   Michigan (Asher) Compare effectiveness of vegetation in a two-stage wetland treatment system to reduce and treat nonpoint source pollution in agricultural tile drains. Jeremiah Asher and Glenn O’Neil conducted research on improving fish habitat through ground water recharge in the Maple River Watershed. The SWAT model was used to quantify impacts of landcover changes and groundwater recharge.   Minnesota (Lucia Levers, Jeff Peterson) Designed and administered a non-market valuation survey for aquatic invasive species management using water quality indicators for a MAISRC grant. Analyzing survey data (choice experiment) to estimate growers’ willingness to accept subsidy payments to grow cover and perennial crops for a Minnesota BWSR grant. Designing a farmer survey for conservation practice analysis for an NSF INFEWS grant.   North Carolina (Edwards, Fell) Researchers at North Carolina State University disseminated findings on the cost of increasing water inflows and providing ecosystem services to the Great Salt Lake in Utah to state representatives and environmental nonprofits.   North Dakota (Hearne) Assessed Missouri River navigation and found no impact of water levels on barge traffic.  Observations of Missouri River barge movements were so low as to make conclusions insignificant.    Rhode Island (Guilfoos) We developed a survey in Guatemala to investigate how water quality and perceptions impact demand for water quality interventions.   Wyoming (Hansen) Under the direction of W3190 members Hansen (WY) and Peck (USDA-ARS), a graduate student is analyzing the economic, hydrologic, and policy conditions under which adoption of water use efficiency technologies could improve farm net revenues in southeastern Wyoming (Ogallala Aquifer).   US Forest Service (Warziniack) Scientists at the US Forest Service have developed a model for water demand for the coterminous US at the county spatial scale. The model is used to estimate water demand projections out to 2100 for several climate scenarios, including 5 GCMs, 2 RCPs, and 5 SSPs. Scientists at the US Forest Service have created the Denver Urban Field Station, a collaborative research effort among federal, state, and local agencies, universities, and NGOs. One of the primary areas of research is the connection between water users in semi-arid urban areas in the American West with the forests from where their drinking water originates.   Objective 3: Evaluate and compare coordinated/integrated management of water sources and land use practices.   Arkansas (Kovacs) Build hydro-economic model in collaboration with the USGS and UC Davis to evaluate the economic feasibility of managed aquifer recharge in the Lower Mississippi Delta. Co-hosted workshop in Washington D.C. on the economics of managed aquifer recharge. Analyze how the rate of technological adoption of efficient irrigation practices influence groundwater depletion when there is a rebound effect between the irrigation practice adoption and land use. Evaluate the amount of acreage and use of alternative irrigation practices in the Arkansas Delta.   California (Dinar, D’Odorico) Developed a regional model for surface water/groundwater/wastewater purchase and use by avocado farmers in Escondido, California   Colorado (Suter, Goemans, Eisworth) Worked with graduate student Di Sheng to develop hydro-economic modeling framework that allows for optimal selection of conservation on land parcels within a tile-drained sub-watershed. Compared nutrient reductions and costs to outcomes when information on the tile-drain network is ignored. Also compare optimal outcomes to outcomes under various uniform payment schemes. Developed hydro-economic modeling framework with Goemans, Manning, Suter and Rouhi Rad at CSU and Schoengold at UNL that predicts well-level water use, profitability and groundwater levels under a range of management policies in central Kansas. Estimated impact of crop insurance on groundwater use in the Ogallala   Indiana (Gitau) A study on the effectiveness of Green Infrastructure (GI) on improving hydrology and water quality in an urban watershed showed that select combinations of practices would generally be more effective than individual practices implemented on their own (Chen et al., 2019). Including more would not necessarily lead to the achievement of runoff and pollutant reduction goals and applying practices to all possible areas would not necessarily provide the most cost-effective solution.   Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Advised a graduate student is writing a dissertating studying how groundwater salinity impacts irrigation water use and land values. Results were presented as a poster at an academic conference. Started project that matches groundwater salinity measurements to geospatial data on land use patterns. The objective of the project is to provide information on the extent of groundwater salinity in southwest Kansas and to empirically estimate whether planted acres of specific crops declines as salinity thresholds for those crops are exceeded.    Minnesota (Lucia Levers, Jeff Peterson) Analyzed scenarios to increase water quality by removing row crops from areas close to waterways and replacing them with perennial grasses and solar panels for a grant with the Science Museum of Minnesota.   Wyoming (Hansen) Hansen is analyzing the ecological and economic trade-offs associated with programs encouraging voluntary water conservation practices on irrigated rangelands that would allow Wyoming to meet its obligations to downstream states under the Colorado River Compact. Collaborators include Trout Unlimited, The Nature Conservancy, conservation districts and ranchers in the area.   Objective 4: Evaluate and compare alternative water quantity and quality management strategies and institutions.   California (Dinar, D’Odorico) Developed a regional model to assess the performance of GW management institutions in Managed Aquifer Recharge in Kings GW Basin in California   Colorado (Suter, Goemans, Eisworth) Integrated a hydro-economic modeling results with WTP estimates based on stated preference survey results to estimate the economic benefits associated with a groundwater retirement program in Kansas Estimated the impacts of groundwater retirement on the groundwater use behavior of wells that neighbor retired wells to evaluate the potential for conservation spillovers. UNC faculty and students conducted activities aimed at enhancing the capability of a Colorado-based payments for water-based ecosystem services program to better assess program benefits. UNC faculty and students interacted with and carried out activities in response to information needs of a collaborative, adaptive management, watershed-based program in the Platte River Basin of WY/CO/NE. Served on Stakeholder Committee for a Colorado PWES program that acts as a watershed fund to match investors with land managers implementing practices to enhance forest and water quality.   Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Worked with a graduate student to write a paper that surveys collective action efforts in Kansas. We use the insights from Elinor Ostrom to understand what factors affect support for the management plans and compare the plans to Ostrom’s design principles. Results of the research were presented as a poster at an academic conference. Continued collaboration with Mieno and Shoengold to analyze how water restrictions impact water use of those who are just outside the policy boundary.   Minnesota (Lucia Levers, Jeff Peterson) Published two articles using a hydro-economic model of the Salton Sea, which highlights a leasing scheme to transfer water from ag to environmental use. Published a dynamic framework to compare innovation to regulatory strategies as policy tools for environmental protection   North Carolina (Edwards, Fell) Researchers at North Carolina State University created a guide to municipal water conservation pricing an engaged in outreach to municipal water utilities.   North Dakota (Hearne) Assessed the use of the bankruptcy model as a cooperative game theoretic tool for water allocation during drought periods in the Missouri River.    Wyoming (Hansen) With University of Wyoming Extension colleagues, Hansen is assisting the Wyoming State Engineer’s Office to assess stakeholder interest in a water demand management program, which could help Wyoming and other Upper Colorado River Basin states meet their obligations under the Colorado River Compact.

Publications

Impact Statements

Wyoming (Hansen) A long-term outcome of research and extension activities related to potential demand management program in the Colorado River Basin is informed decision-making and improved management.

Date of Annual Report: 12/15/2021

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 10/14/2021 - 10/15/2021
Period the Report Covers: 10/04/2019 - 10/14/2021

Participants

Participants listed in the "Summary of Minutes" section of the report.

Brief Summary of Minutes

Minutes Attachment:

minutes_W4190_Annual_Meeting2020&2021.docx

Accomplishments

<h1>STATE REPORT</h1> W4190: Management and Policy Challenges in a Water-Scarce World <h1>10/01/2020 to 09/30/2021</h1>   <h1>Reflection on what stakeholders want to know & see</h1> Stakeholders have a variety of needs related to projecting future water resource supplies and demands for decision-making at various levels. When considering costly investments in long-term, capital-intensive infrastructure investments, decision-makers want to know the value of project water for agricultural production and other uses. There is also interest in understanding how conservation and water efficiency efforts may impact long-term water supplies and demands. Related, knowledge of best management practices can enhance long-term water quality and quantity (e.g., groundwater management can reduce the likelihood of subsidence and can support certainty of long-term water quality and quantity). Finally, stakeholders would like to identify institutional changes that support the allocation of water resources in ways that can benefit all users. <h1>Plans for the coming year</h1> Stakeholders of W4190 members will continue pursuing research and activities relevant to the stated objectives of the Multistate Hatch Project on Management and Policy Challenges in a Water-Scarce World. The group will maintain contact through professional gatherings and via remote interactions on collaborative research projects and activities.  The annual meeting will take place in October 2022 in Kentucky and will serve as an opportunity to support collaborative research activities and preparation of multistate research proposals addressing our four objectives.   <h1>Accomplishments</h1> Please describe activities, outputs, and short-term outcomes over the current reporting period of 2020-2021. Please indicate significant evidence of linkages both internal to the project/committee and to external peer groups, stakeholders, clientele, and other multistate activities.   Objective 1: Characterize water resource and human system response to climatic and anthropogenic perturbations.   California (Dinar) Agricultural growers respond to droughts and water scarcity and deteriorated quality by adaptation of growing practices, changes to their crop mix, using water from various sources, and introducing institutions to better manage their water.  Our team completed and published a couple of studies addressing groundwater management and conjunctive use with surface water and treated wastewater to help mitigate drought effects on irrigated agriculture.  A regional study in the Kings River Basin of California developed a regional dynamic model, which (1) assessed the effect of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) on the ability of farmers to respond to severe water shortages and profitability under several scenarios of water scarcity, and (2) evaluated the value of the MAR under various scenarios.  In a study of avocado growers in the Escondido region of San Diego County, we were able to (1) understand the behavior of avocado growers in selecting responses to water shortages, and (2) to estimate the economic value of treated wastewater that could be used for irrigation of avocado plantations in that region.   Colorado (Eiswerth, Goemans, Suter, Kroll) Suter conducted a two-phase survey of agricultural landowners in Colorado and Nebraska, with assistance from Karina Schoengold (UNL) and Todd Guilfoos (URI), to understand how reported stress levels correlate with water availability and preferences for water management.   Idaho (Maas, Taylor) Conducted analysis around water availability and quality.  This includes working on projects involving chemical spills, dairies, and agricultural use. Published work around citizen preferences for new water sources in the Palouse Region.   Indiana (Gitau) We investigated the time distribution of extreme rainfall events as a significant property governing the design of stormwater management structures. Comparisons included: peak rainfall intensities; number of first, second, third, and fourth-quartile storms; dependence of peak rainfall intensity on total depth and duration; and, return levels and return periods of peak discharge when these extremes were applied on a hypothetical urban catchment.   Illinois (Kalita, Bhattarai) Our team recently completed a study where we investigated the historical shift in extreme precipitation regime in Illinois using Fisher Information. The manuscript is under review.   South Carolina (Rouhi Rad) Hotter and drier conditions are expected to affect the demand for water across different sectors, such as agricultural irrigation and energy production. Researchers at Clemson collected data for studying the effect of climatic changes on groundwater demand for irrigated agricultural production in South Carolina. The work is currently ongoing.   US Forest Service (Warziniack) Scientists at the US Forest Service and Colorado State University have modeled water yield and water demand across 20 climate and socioeconomic futures. They examine changes in the frequency, duration, and drought throughout the Continental United States. They find that despite reductions in water demand for much of the U.S., reductions in yield will make shortages more severe. Short term droughts will extend in duration and flash droughts will become more frequent and severe.   Objective 2: Quantify water demand and value of water in competing and complementary water uses. Arkansas (Kovacs) Invited to attend a first ever groundwater summit for Arkansas in September.  The summit was delayed unfortunately due to restrictions from COVID.  A second stage hedonic model is in development to estimate the demand for in-situ groundwater.  This will allow for the valuation of non-marginal changes in the stock of groundwater available for agriculture.   California (Dinar) Water demand and value in various competing and complementary uses in the San Diego region and in the San Joaquin Valley Region were quantified via the studies of a regional MAR and a regional wastewater reuse analyses that were described in more detail under Objective 1. Results suggest that the value of water is affected by the scarcity scenario and the existing institutions in the region.   Colorado (Suter, Goemans) Developed a manuscript that evaluates how salinity levels and surface water canal access are capitalized into agricultural land values in Otero County, Colorado.   Georgia (Mullen) A grant from the GA Environmental Protection Division was secured to generate agricultural water demand projections for 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 for the current state water plan. The projections were done by county and aggregated to the watershed level. Projections were based on crop acreage and monthly water applications under different weather conditions. Acreage projections for 2020 that were made in 2010 and 2016 were evaluated based on observed irrigated acreage in 2020 and found to have been quite accurate -- within 5% for all projected crops. A new map of irrigated acreage in Georgia was created based on aerial photography in 2020. Access to data from the FRIS survey instruments has been acquired and a new southeast regional model to estimate the extensive and intensive margins of water use is in development and will be estimated with the FRIS data.    Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Published study of the total, extensive, and intensive irrigation demand response to local ethanol market expansion in Kansas from 2003-2017. Ethanol plants incentive feedstock production (i.e., corn) in localized areas because proximity to the plant increases price received net of transport costs. Moreover, much of the corn produced in western Kansas is irrigated due limited rainfall. We estimate that ethanol expansion in Kansas has increased irrigation water use. Specifically, a 10 million gallon/year increase in refining capacity within 50 km leads to a 1.03 acre-ft increase in water use per field. Moreover, we detect increased irrigated corn acreage and decreased irrigated soy and alfalfa acreage when an ethanol plant is constructed or expands its refining capacity. Finally, we predict that approximately 4% of current statewide irrigation water use is attributable to ethanol markets. Accepted manuscript examining agricultural land value capitalization of ethanol market expansion in Kansas using transaction-level data for 1995-2017. We hypothesized that corn prices and thus land values in the vicinity of an ethanol plant are higher relative to parcels located farther from a plant. We further hypothesized that irrigated parcels capitalize on ethanol expansion to a greater extent than non-irrigated parcels due to differences in corn water demand and precipitation in Kansas. We estimate that an irrigated (non-irrigated) parcel having one or  more ethanol plants situated within 50 km fetches an 8.8% (6.3%) price premium relative to  more distant irrigated (non-irrigated) parcels, on average. We estimate the average marginal  effect of a 10 million gallon per year increase in ethanol capacity within 50 km is a 4.8%  (1.8%) increase in irrigated (non-irrigated) land value. One concern raised by this study is  greater financial leverage of irrigated farms, potentially leading to increased future vulnerability  to declining income, slackening of bioenergy mandates, or declining irrigation water availability  due to climate change or aquifer drawdown. Published a paper on the relationship between farm size and groundwater depletion using historical data on water use in Kansas. Presented a poster at a national academic conference on estimating intraseasonal irrigation using remote sensing soil moisture data from NASA.   Kentucky (Buck) Completed research on forecasting residential urban water demand in California.  A comprehensive review of academic literature and utility reports on long-term forecasts of water demand shows that water forecast models are not selected on forecast ability and usually only report a single forecast for the future.  In response, we develop a forecast selected on prediction performance and report a range of forecast estimates.  We compare our forecasts of residential urban water demand in California to forecasts from public utility reports using the same data.  The comparison reveals our approach drastically outperforms existing forecast approaches used in public reports. On-going research on the effect of salinity on crop choice in California went through scientific review, which resulted in comparisons of the effect of salinity on crop choice for producers without recent changes in land-use versus producers with recent changes in land-use. The results of this comparative analysis are consistent with our overall finding that there is statistically and economically significant heterogeneity in the effect of salinity on agricultural land-use. This work is important because it sheds light on how alternative water quality management regimes may impact crop composition between low and high value crops in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region of California. On-going research on the consumer welfare impacts of mandated conservation standards (water restrictions) in urban areas of California went through scientific review, which resulted in comparisons of welfare impacts inferred using alternative statistical models and subsamples for estimation of the demand curve’s slope.  This type of comparison is significant since inaccurate estimates of the demand curve’s slope can lead to economically large differences in the monetized impacts consumers experience from water restrictions.  Consistent with this recognition of variable impacts, the overall significance of the work is to illustrate that consumer impacts in response to mandated water restrictions vary across space.  The work also discusses variation in the methods utilities used to achieve mandated water restrictions in their respective service areas as well as the pattern of compliance with restrictions across space.   Mississippi (Quintana) Developed a dataset for the Delta region in Mississippi that includes field level data on groundwater pumping for irrigation and other beneficial uses. The dataset is enriched with crop choices, weather variables, and aquifer water table elevation for the corresponding years. Additionally, it incorporates surface water sources including on-farm water reservoirs for irrigation and aquaculture. Secured two EPA and one CIG grants that will find multidisciplinary research into farmer adoption of water conservation and irrigation automation practices over the next three years. The project includes two large surveys of irrigators across the Lower Mississippi River Basin including Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Missouri. Additional stand-alone surveys are planned for the Mississippi portion of the Delta to explore farmer willingness to adopt some of the experimental practices in the project. A farmer-to-farmer EPA grant funds a research project that consists in shallow off-season flooding of cropland to create temporary habitats for migratory birds. The ecosystem services provided and additional activities required would be evaluated over the three-year period ending in mid-2024.   Missouri (McCann) A graduate student presented a paper at the 2021 AAEA meetings on the economic impacts of irrigation using the Edwards Aquifer (in Texas) after pumping technologies were available.    Nebraska (Brozovic, Schoengold) Researchers collaborated with colleagues in other institutions, in industry, and in the National Drought Mitigation Center around estimating agricultural water use and the value of water in agriculture. Much of this work was interdisciplinary and combined economic, hydrologic, and agronomic methods and datasets. Key results show that there are high levels of spatial and temporal variability in measurement errors when comparing in situ and satellite-derived water use estimates; and in average water values for corn production in the High Plains. These multiple sources of variability complicate drought mitigation and water policy planning.   North Carolina (Edwards) Brought together a group of 15 water economists, policymakers, and practitioners to explore forthcoming issues in water markets over nine hours of presentations and discussions, leading to the development of policy discussion papers.   Oklahoma (Lambert) Published two peer reviewed research articles on climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and productivity in the Southeastern U.S. Findings are useful to local field crop producers in aiding decisions on irrigation technologies and land use at the farm and watershed level.   South Carolina (Rouhi Rad) Analyzed water withdrawal and use for the major sectors in the state, including agriculture, energy production, and public supply. It was shown that water use for cooling purposes in energy production is one of the largest users of water in the state.However, there are significant gaps in data availability when moving from water withdrawals to water consumption. The first article from this series is under review.   US Forest Service (Warziniack) Scientists at the US Forest Service and Colorado State University have modeled water yield and water demand across 20 climate and socioeconomic futures. They examine changes in the frequency, duration, and drought throughout the Continental United States. They find that despite reductions in water demand for much of the U.S., reductions in yield will make shortages more severe. Short term droughts will extend in duration and flash droughts will become more frequent and severe.     Objective 3: Evaluate and compare coordinated/integrated management of water sources and land use practices.   Arkansas (Kovacs) Assessed the use of afforestation as a tool to sequester mitigate groundwater overdraft in the Arkansas Delta.  Evaluated the influence of climatic uncertainty on the choice of surface water reservoirs or MAR in the Arkansas Delta. Continue research using a sample selection model to evaluate the choice and amount of farmland that uses specific irrigation practices in the Arkansas Delta.   California (Dinar, D’Odorico) Coordinated/integrated management practices of water sources and land use practices in the San Joaquin Valley Region were evaluated via the study of a regional MAR that was described in more detail under Objective 1. Results suggest that MAR is a sustainable strategy to address water scarcity, while improving the regional welfare. INtegration of use of various sources of water has been proven important for the regional economy.   Colorado (Suter, Goemans) Sent groundwater use comparison mailers to groundwater users in Colorado and Kansas as part of a Randomized Controlled Trial that is collaborative work with Nathan Hendricks (KSU) and Aaron Hrozencik (ERS).   Illinois (Kalita, Bhattarai) Published a review paper that summarized the current research state on the use of waste materials and their modified forms as adsorbents for dissolved reactive P removal from wastewater. Various performance improvement methods were compiled into the research outcomes to highlight three significant efforts that scientists have contributed to promoting the application of waste-based adsorbents: (i) how to enhance the P removal efficiency; (ii) how to scale up implementation; and (iii) how to achieve sustainable management. Published a review paper on the generation, fundamental characteristics, environmental concerns to potential applications, and benefits analysis of coal bottom ash. High-value applications and current research related to CBA, including construction and ceramic industry, wastewater remediation, soil amelioration, energy catalysis, valuable metals recovery, and material synthesis, were systemically presented and compared in the paper.   Indiana (Gitau) We identified critical periods for water resources management to facilitate robust water-resources decision-making at the Food-Energy-Water nexus. A composite look at all the FEW nexus elements showed that critical periods for water management in the study watershed occurred in the early and late season —primarily related to water quality—and mid-season, related to water quantity. This suggests the need to adapt agricultural and other management practices across the growing season in line with the respective water management needs.   Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) A student completed a master’s thesis that provided a techno-economic analysis of an Anaerobic Membrane Bioreactor (AnMBR) system to capture methane and clean water from livestock waste.   Michigan (Asher, Najadhashemi, O’Neil, Wolfson) A graduate student at MSU evaluated the robustness of several soil moisture metrics of temporal dynamics to growth and yield under climate extremes Objective 1a: Developed an interface for a national drought forecasting system, utilizing model outputs for generated by Michigan State University’s Weekly Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (WDMPS) (funded by USGS 104b).  Objective 1b: Modeled the potential risks to human health from harmful algal blooms in western Lake Erie Basin communities (both in Michigan and Ohio) and in the Saginaw Bay region (funded by Michigan Sea Grant).  Objective 2a: Started a project to evaluate the feasibility of employing a groundwater trading program in Ottawa County, MI. Generating models of aquifer recharge under various conservation strategies, which will then be used to guide proposed trades between buyers who have regulatory limitations on water withdraws and sellers who are willing to adopt conservation practices that increase recharge (funded by USGS 104b).  Collaborated with surface water modelers in MSU’s Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering to simulate the impact of various agricultural conservation strategies on phosphorus runoff in the Saginaw River watershed. Developed an online mapping tool allowing users to evaluate those strategies on a field by field basis (funded by EPA-GLRI). Developed a phosphorus runoff mapbook for soil and water conservation district technicians in southeast Michigan to help prioritize conservation outreach activities (funded by MDARD).  Objective 3b: Collaborating with surface water modelers from the University of Michigan to explore the impacts of urbanization, green infrastructure, and real-time water monitoring on water quality and quantity in the Clinton River watershed of southeast Michigan (funded by EGLE).  Objective 3c: Developed a groundwater model for the L’Anse reservation in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula to explore potential pathways for arsenic contamination (funded by USDA-NIFA, as a subaward to the Keweenaw Bay Ojibwe Community College). Floating Wetland Research Research on Floating Plants in a Constructed Wetland for Phosphorus Removal from Tile Drain Runoff <ul> <li>Presented project and research results at the Michigan Inland Lakes Convention (online)</li> <li>Co-presented paper at the UCOWR/NIWR conference (online)</li> <li>Year 2 results found seasonal 61.3% reduction of phosphorus from entering to leaving the first wetland; determined which plants did best in P uptake and which had the greatest biomass increase.</li> </ul>   Mississippi (Quintana) Published an article that evaluates the profitability and risk of reducing the amount of water application by half on soybean and cotton when compared to existing agronomical prescriptions. The practice of skip-row irrigation is dominant for cotton farming but costly and risk-increasing for soybean producers. The paper suggests there is room for optimizing the current irrigation decision rules associated with soil moisture sensor based management. An article currently in R&R explores the long-term implications and optimality of pluvial and irrigation capture, storage and reuse in irrigation. Results suggests that free-market outcomes result in underinvestment in capture and storage infrastructure.   Nebraska (Schoengold) In a recent publication, Schoengold and co-authors examine whether the current crop insurance program creates an incentive to adjust irrigation application. Results suggest that under the current program design and current irrigation costs, little incentive exists to modify irrigation use. However, if the program is modified and/or irrigation costs increase substantially, it may create an incentive to reduce irrigation below the economically optimal level.   Oklahoma (Lambert) Applied research on rainfed wheat-based double crop options for the southern great plains region including Oklahoma and Kansas; collaborated with colleagues from agricultural economics and plant and soil science disciplines to estimate the economic value of soil moisture information and insurance options in assisting farmer decision making for summer crops choices following winter wheat.   South Carolina (Rouhi Rad) Developed and modified an integrated model for groundwater use in the Kansas portion of the High Plains Aquifer (with Suter, Manning and Goemans from Colorado State). The model is used to analyze the effectiveness of two different types of conservation subsidy payments for reducing groundwater use. This work is important because groundwater availability is important to local producers. Showing the effectiveness of different policies would provide local communities with an understanding of the tradeoffs between different types of policies.   Wyoming (Hansen) A graduate student mentored by Hansen received the 2021 Western Agricultural Economics Association Outstanding Masters Thesis award for her analysis of the ecological and economic trade-offs associated with programs encouraging voluntary water conservation practices on irrigated rangelands in the Colorado River Basin.     Objective 4: Evaluate and compare alternative water quantity and quality management strategies and institutions. California (Dinar) Water quantity and quality management strategies and institutions of water sources in the San Joaquin Valley Region were evaluated via the studies of a regional MAR and a regional wastewater reuse that were described in more detail under Objective 1. Developed a regional model to assess the performance of GW management institutions in Managed Aquifer Recharge in Kings GW Basin in California. And Developed a regional model to assess the possibilities of interactions between urban centers and agricultural growers in use of urban wastewater.   Colorado (Suter, Goemans, Eiswerth) Initiated research that compares groundwater use behavior on leased state land board land parcels in comparison to privately held irrigated land in Colorado   Georgia (Mullen) A comparison of two water management strategies -- irrigation buyout auctions versus source switching -- is near completion. The comparison uses IMPLAN to estimate, by county,  the direct, indirect and induced costs of taking irrigated land out of production via a buyout auction. The expected present value of costs of managing water shortages during drought with a buyout auction over a 25-year time horizon are dependent on the probability that auctions would be need to be held. The expected present value of costs of source switching are developed based on the fixed costs of drilling new wells to the Claiborne aquifer which has limited hydrologic connectivity to surface water, the increase in variable costs due to pumping water from a greater depth, and the probability that the new Claiborne aquifer will run dry due to over-drafting. Preliminary results suggest that in the absence of a threat of over-drafting, source switching is a more cost-effective management strategy than a certain buyout auction in year 1 for all counties in the study area. As the probability of holding an auction falls, however, the auction becomes more effective, but in a uniform manner across the study area. The heterogeneity of the cost-effectiveness of the auction allows us to identify which counties to prioritize for source-switching.   Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Published study of irrigator water quality testing behavior and perceptions of the impact of low water quality on crop outcomes. In total, we evaluated survey data for 637 producers operating over the Kansas portion of the High Plains Aquifer. We find that producers exhibit greater concern for groundwater quantity than the quality of groundwater. For instance, one-third of respondents indicated “moderate” or “major” concern over the agricultural impacts of low water quality. By comparison, one-half of respondents indicated “moderate” or “major” concern over the agricultural impacts of low water quantity (as measured by well yield). Finally, we estimate producer willingness to pay for a marginal improvement in water quality (as measured by salinity levels) using contingent valuation. We estimate willingness to pay ranging from $26/well to $39/well for an incremental increase in the salt content of irrigation water.  Published a paper that synthesizes lessons that can be learned from the recent experience of local efforts to manage groundwater in Kansas. We utilized several different sources of data to determine some measure of support or resistance to local groundwater management by individual users and examined if certain resource characteristics were correlated with their support. We also provided a qualitative analysis of different management plans and examine what factors may have led to their degree of success. Collaborated with a Groundwater Management District (GMD) board of directors and conducted a survey of irrigators to ask if they support different types of water management plans. Results from the survey were presented at the GMD annual meeting and will also be analyzed further for future academic publications. Presented a poster at a national academic conference that examines how different characteristics of water users and the aquifer affect and individual’s support for groundwater management using survey data we collected.   Michigan (Ghane) Ghane developed eight new Extension Publications to address stakeholder questions regarding drainage water quantity and quality. In response to questions that Ghane received via phone calls and emails from Michigan stakeholders, he has written eight Extension bulletins as first author. These publications offer new and practical information about addressing common drainage issues, as well as information about conservation drainage practices. These publications are available on Ghane’s Drainage Extension website.  Effort: (Obj. 4) – Ghane published a paper about optimizing crop production for subsurface-drained field. This paper is the scientific basis for the Drain Spacing decision-support tool. This paper led to the Drain Spacing Tool. Outcome: (Obj. 4) – E. Ghane, M.H. Askar, R.W. Skaggs. 2021. Design drainage rates to optimize crop production for subsurface-drained fields. Agricultural Water Management. 257, 107045.  Effort: (Obj. 4) – Ghane published a paper showing the water quantity and quality benefits of the conservation drainage practice of shallow drains. This paper was converted to an Extension bulletin to disseminate research to stakeholders. Outcome: (Obj. 4) – E. Ghane and M.H. Askar. 2021. Predicting the effect of drain depth on profitability and hydrology of subsurface drainage systems across the eastern USA. Agricultural Water Management. 258, 107072.  Effort: (Obj. 4) – Ghane published a paper providing the means of measuring water quantity, so it can be used for water quality evaluation of conservation drainage practices. Outcome: (Obj. 4) – M.S.B. Shokrana, E. Ghane*. 2021. An empirical V-notch weir equation and standard procedure to accurately estimate drainage discharge. Applied Engineering in Agriculture. In Press.   Missouri (McCann) Published a paper with researchers from Tunisia on groundwater management institutions and the potential for institutional change using Ostrom’s theories of collective action.    North Carolina (Edwards) Published study exploring groundwater management across the globe which developed a novel method to explain what type of management emerges by assessing the magnitude of the benefits of reduced externalities and the costs of implementing management.   Oklahoma (Lambert) Conducted a national study on water quality violations and assessed if social media was useful for examining local water quality perceptions. The research quantified the relationship between consumer social media perceptions and reported drinking water quality to generate insight for state water managers and policymakers. Results demonstrate that, in many cases, water violations in one urban area emerge as national news, which had the effect of eclipsing local water issues circulating on social media.   Wyoming (Hansen) Completed an assessment of the regional economic impacts of water transfers in the Wyoming portion of the Colorado River Basin. The study has assisted water rights holders and other stakeholders in evaluating a potential demand management program (water conservation) in the region; and highlighted scientific data needs to better improve decision-making.   US Forest Service (Warziniack) Scientists from the US Forest Service have been working with partners to form the Western Water Network, a collaboration across researchers, extensions specialists, and stakeholders to address sustainability issues related to water use in the West. The network has received rapid response funding from NIFA and hopes to hold its first congress in 2022. <h1> </h1>

Publications

<h1>Publications (10/01/2020 to 09/30/2021)</h1> Arkansas Kovacs, K., R. Haight, K. Moore, M. Popp. 2021. “Afforestation for carbon sequestration in the Lower Mississippi River Basin of Arkansas, USA: Does modeling of land use a fine spatial resolution reveal lower carbon cost?” Forest Policy and Economics, DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102526">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102526</a> Tran, D., K. Kovacs. 2021. “Climate uncertainty and optimal groundwater augmentation.” Water Resources Research, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030114">https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030114</a>  Kovacs, K., H. Snell. 2021. “Heterogeneity in time preferences for an investment in irrigation.” Land Economics, 97(4): 27-40. West, G., H. Snell, K. Kovacs, R. Nayga. 2021. “Flexible estimation of groundwater service values and time preferences.” Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 8(4): 825-861.   California Reznik, A. and A. Dinar, Local Conditions and the Economic Feasibility of Urban Wastewater Recycling in Irrigated Agriculture: Lessons from a Stochastic Regional Analysis in California. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, (Accepted for publication, September 10, 2021). Reznik, A., Y. Jiang and A. Dinar, The Impacts of Climate Change on Wastewater Treatment Costs: Evidence from the Wastewater Sector in China. Water, (Accepted for publication, No-vember 19, 2020), 2020, 12(11):3272, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113272. Reznik, A., and A. Dinar. “Reuse of Recycled Municipal Wastewater by Irrigated Agricul-ture in the Escondido Region, California.” ARE Update 23(4) (2020): 5–8. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. Rightnar, J. and A. Dinar. “Welfare Consequences on the Salton Sea Region of Re-allocating Colorado River Flow Deficit.” ARE Update 23(6) (2020): 5–8. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. Reznik, A., A. Dinar, S. Bresney, L. Forni, B. Joyce, S. Wallander, D. Bigelow, and I. Kan. “Can Managed Aquifer Recharge Mitigate Drought Impacts on California’s Irrigated Agri-culture? The Role for Institutions and Policies.” ARE Update 24(4) (2021):5–8. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics.   Colorado Hrozencik, R. A., Manning, D. T., Suter, J. F., & Goemans, C. (2021). Impacts of Block‐Rate Energy Pricing on Groundwater Demand in Irrigated Agriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Rouhi Rad, M., D.M. Manning, J.F. Suter, and C. Goemans. Forthcoming. Policy Leakage or Policy Benefit? Spatial Spillovers from Conservation Policies in Common Property Resources. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. Brown, Thomas and Stephan Kroll (2021). “Inequality Hinders Group Efforts to Avoid Environmental Disasters,” Q Open 1/1, Article qoab006.  Suter, J.F., M. Rouhi Rad, D.T. Manning, C. Goemans, M. Sanderson. 2021. Depletion, Climate, and the Incremental Value of Groundwater. Resource and Energy Economics. 63: 101143. Manning, D., M. Rouhi Rad, J.F. Suter, C. Goemans, Z. Xiang, and R. Bailey. 2020. Non-market Valuation in Integrated Modeling: The Benefits of Water Right Retirement. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 103: 102341. Cherry, Todd L., Steffen Kallbekken, Stephan Kroll and David M. McEvoy (2021). “Does Solar Geoengineering Crowd Out Climate Change Mitigation Efforts? Evidence from a Stated Preference Referendum on a Carbon Tax,” Climatic Change 165, Article 6.   Florida Medina, M., R. Huffaker, R. Muñoz-Carpena, and G. Kiker (2021). An empirical nonlinear dynamics approach to analyzing emergent behavior of agent-based models. AIP Advances, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0023116">https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0023116</a> . Medina, M., R. Huffaker, J. Jawitz, and R. Muñoz-Carpena (2020). Seasonal dynamics of terrestrially sourced nitrogen influenced Karenia brevis blooms off Florida’s southern Gulf Coast. Harmful Algae 98, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2020.101900">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2020.101900</a> . Huffaker, R. and E. McLamore (2020). A protocol for reconstructing the dynamics of real-world systems from observational data: Application for establishing a digital proxy of a bioreactor (DIYBOT). Protocol Exchange DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.pex-1052/v1. McLamore, E., R. Huffaker, M. Shupler, K. Ward, S. Palit, A. Datta, M. Banks, G. Casaburi, J. Babilonia, and J. Foster (2020).  Digital Proxy of a Bio-Reactor (DIYBOT) combines sensor data and data analytics to improve greywater treatment and wastewater management systems. Nat. Sci. Rep. 10.8015, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598%E2%80%90020%E2%80%9064789%E2%80%905">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598‐020‐64789‐5</a>.   Georgia Brown, Marilyn A., Blair Beasley, Fikret Atalay, Kim M. Cobb, Puneet Dwivedi, Jeffrey Hubbs, David M. Iwaniec, Sudhagar Mani, Daniel Matisoff, Jacqueline E. Mohan, Jeffrey Mullen, Michael Oxman, Daniel Rochberg, Michael Rodgers, Marshall Shepherd, Richard Simmons, Laura Taylor, L. Beril Toktay. (2021) “Translating a Global Emission-Reduction Framework for Subnational Climate Action: A Case Study from the State of Georgia,” Environmental Management. <a href="https://nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1007%2Fs00267-020-01406-1&data=04%7C01%7Cenv-mgmt%40lists.gatech.edu%7C96727e6656924a34ece208d8b9afd50a%7C482198bbae7b4b258b7a6d7f32faa083%7C0%7C0%7C637463512418831289%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=dshFx7rHWzcz3uLKUA%2BHoa%2FRrzyuVSw2QdSbLPm0zIk%3D&reserved=0">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-020-01406-1</a> Marilyn A. Brown, Puneet Dwivedi, Sudhagar Mani, Daniel Matisoff, Jacqueline E. Mohan, Jeffrey Mullen, Michael Oxman, Michael Rodgers, Richard Simmons, Blair Beasley, Lalith Polepeddi. (2021) “A framework for localizing global climate solutions and their carbon reduction potential,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aug 2021, 118 (31) e2100008118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2100008118   Idaho Burton, K., A. Maas, and K. Lee. 2021. “The Temporal and Spatial Extent of Property Value Losses Following a Freshwater Chemical Spill”. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. Awad, K., A. Maas, and C. Wardropper. 2021. “Preferences for Alternative Water Supplies in the Pacific Northwest: A Choice Experiment.” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 147(4). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001342">https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001342</a>      Indiana Rohith, A. N., Gitau, M. W., Chaubey, I., & Sudheer, K. P. (2021). A multistate first-order Markov model for modeling time distribution of extreme rainfall events. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 35(6), 1205-1221. Schull, V. Z., Mehan, S., Gitau, M. W., Johnson, D. R., Singh, S., Sesmero, J. P., & Flanagan, D. C. (2021). Construction of Critical Periods for Water Resources Management and Their Application in the FEW Nexus. Water, 13(5), 718. Torres, C., Gitau, M., Lara-Borrero, J., & Paredes-Cuervo, D. (2020). Framework for Water Management in the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus in Mixed Land-Use Watersheds in Colombia. Sustainability, 12(24), 10332.   Illinois Zhou, H., Margenot, A. J., Li, Y., Si, B., Wang, T., Zhang, Y., Li, S., & Bhattarai, R. (2021). Phosphorus pollution control using waste-based adsorbents: Material synthesis, modification, and sustainability. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, 1-37. DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10643389.2020.1866414">10.1080/10643389.2020.1866414</a> Zhou, H., Bhattarai, R., Li, Y., Si, B., Dong, X., Wang, T., & Yao, Z. (2021). Towards sustainable coal industry: Turning coal bottom ash into wealth. Science of The Total Environment, 804, 149985. DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149985">10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149985</a>   Kansas Gardner, G., G.S. Sampson, and D. Presley (2021). “Irrigator perceptions and the value of groundwater quality in the High Plains Aquifer.” Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 00118, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.2021.00118">https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.2021.00118</a>. Sampson, G.S., A. Al-Sudani, J. Bergtold (2021). “Local irrigation response to ethanol expansion in the High Plains Aquifer.” Resource and Energy Economics 66, 101249, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101249">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101249</a>. Gardner, G. and G.S. Sampson (forthcoming). “Land value impacts of ethanol market expansion by irrigation status.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics doi:10.22004/ag.econ.313314. Ao, Y.Z., N.P. Hendricks, and L.T. Marston. 2021. "Growing farms and groundwater depletion in the Kansas High Plains" Environmental Research Letters 16: 084065. Perez-Quesada, G. and N.P. Hendricks. 2021. “Lessons from Local Governance and Collective Action Efforts to Manage Irrigation Withdrawals in Kansas” Agricultural Water Management 247: 106736. Parker, Emily. 2021. “Anaerobic Membrane Bioreactor (AnMBR) economic viability on swine operations” MS Thesis, Kansas State University.   Kentucky (Buck) Buck, S., Auffhammer, M., Soldati, H., & Sunding, D. (2020). Forecasting residential water consumption in California: rethinking model selection. Water Resources Research, 56(1), e2018WR023965. Uz, D., & Buck, S. (2020). Comparing Water Use Forecasting Model Selection Criteria: The Case of Commercial, Institutional, and Industrial Sector in Southern California. Sustainability, 12(10), 3995.   Michigan M.S.B. Shokrana, E. Ghane*. 2021. An empirical V-notch weir equation and standard procedure to accurately estimate drainage discharge. Applied Engineering in Agriculture. In Press. <ol start="2021"> <li>Ghane and M.H. Askar. 2021. Predicting the effect of drain depth on profitability and hydrology of subsurface drainage systems across the eastern USA. Agricultural Water Management. 258, 107072.</li> <li>Ghane, M.H. Askar, R.W. Skaggs. 2021. Design drainage rates to optimize crop production for subsurface-drained fields. Agricultural Water Management. 257, 107045.</li> </ol> Eeswaran, R., Nejadhashemi, A.P., Alves, F.C. and Saravi, B., 2021. Evaluating the applicability of soil moisture-based metrics for gauging the resiliency of rainfed agricultural systems in the midwestern United States. Soil and Tillage Research, 205, p.104818. Eeswaran, R., Nejadhashemi, A.P. and Miller, S.R., 2021. Evaluating the climate resilience in terms of profitability and risk for a long-term corn-soybean-wheat rotation under different treatment systems. Climate Risk Management, 32, p.100284.   Mississippi Quintana‐Ashwell, N., Anapalli, S.S., Pinnamaneni, S.R., Kaur, G., Reddy, K.N. and Fisher, D., 2021. Profitability of twin‐row planting and skip‐row irrigation in a humid climate. Agronomy Journal. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.20847">https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.20847</a>   Missouri Soula, Rania, Ali Chebil, Laura McCann, and Rajouene Majdoub.  “Water Scarcity in the Mahdia Region of Tunisia: Are Improved Water Policies Needed?”  Groundwater for Sustainable Development, February 2021, 12: 100510.   Nebraska Foster, T., T. Mieno, and N. Brozović (2020) “Satellite‐based monitoring of irrigation water use: Assessing measurement errors and their implications for agricultural water management policy,” Water Resources Research, v. 56 (11), e2020WR028378. Rimsaite, R., J. Gibson, and N. Brozović (2021) “Informing drought mitigation policy by estimating the value of water for crop production,” Environmental Research Communications, v. 3, 041004. Suchato, P., T. Mieno, K. Schoengold, and T. Foster (2021) “The Potential for Moral Hazard Behavior in Irrigation Decisions under Crop Insurance” Agricultural Economics, available online 30-AUG-2021, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12676. Young, R., T. Foster, T. Mieno, A. Valocchi, and N. Brozović (2021) “Hydrologic‐economic trade‐offs in groundwater allocation policy design,” Water Resources Research, v. 57 (1), e2020WR027941.   North Carolina Edwards, E.C. and Guilfoos, T. In Press. The Economics of Groundwater Governance Institutions Across the Globe. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy.   Oklahoma Lambert, L. and Bir, Courtney. Evaluating water quality using social media and federal agency data. Journal of Water and Health. (forthcoming) Lambert, L. H. and Hagerman, A. Industrial hemp production and market risk analysis: a case study in Oklahoma. Journal of Applied Farm Economics. (forthcoming) Lambert, L. H., Burton C. English, Christopher C. Clark et al. (2021). Local effects of climate change on row crop production and adoption. Climate Risk Management 32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100293 Pasaribu, K.N., Lambert, L. H., Lambert, D.M. et al. (2021). Profitability of irrigating for corn, cotton, and soybeans under projected drought scenarios in the Southeastern United States. Irrigation Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00271-020-00707-x Bir, C., and Lambert, L.H. Considering water quality in Oklahoma. Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service Fact Sheets, March 2021. https://extension.okstate.edu/fact-sheets/considering-water-quality-in-oklahoma.html   South Carolina Mieno, Taro, Mani Rouhi Rad, Jordan Suter, and Robert Hrozencik. "The Importance of Well Yield in Groundwater Demand Specification." Forthcoming Land Economics (2021). Mani Rouhi Rad, Dale T. Manning, Jordan F. Suter, and Christopher Goemans. “Policy Leakage or Policy Benefit? Spatial Spillovers from Conservation Policies in Common Property Resources” Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 2021 8:5, 923-953 Araya, A., P. H. Gowda, M. Rouhi Rad, C. B. Ariyaratne, I. A. Ciampitti, C. W. Rice, and P. V. V. Prasad. "Evaluating optimal irrigation for potential yield and economic performance of major crops in southwestern Kansas." Agricultural Water Management 244 (2021): 106536. Manning, Dale T., Mani Rouhi Rad, Jordan F. Suter, Christopher Goemans, Zaichen Xiang, and Ryan Bailey. "Non-market valuation in integrated assessment modeling: The benefits of water right retirement." Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 103 (2020): 102341.   Wyoming Hansen, K., R. Coupal, E. Yeatman, and D. Bennett. 2021. “Economic Assessment of a Water Demand Management Program in Wyoming’s Portion of the Colorado River Basin: Summary” Bulletin B-1373. Laramie, WY: University of Wyoming Extension. Hansen, K., R. Coupal, E. Yeatman, and D. Bennett. 2021. “Economic Assessment of a Water Demand Management Program in Wyoming’s Portion of the Colorado River Basin.” Final Report to The Nature Conservancy. March 15, 2021. 112 pages. <a href="https://www.uwyo.edu/uwe/wy-dm-ucrb/econ-report.html">https://www.uwyo.edu/uwe/wy-dm-ucrb/econ-report.html</a>   US Forest Service Champ, P. A., Meldrum, J. R., Brenkert-Smith, H., Warziniack, T. W., Barth, C. M., Falk, L. C., & Gomez, J. B. (2020). Do actions speak louder than words? Comparing the effect of risk aversion on objective and self-reported mitigation measures. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 169, 301-313. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., Warziniack, T., & Kao, S. C. (2020). Assessing shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of US river basins in response to climate change over the 21st century. Earth's Future, 8(10), e2020EF001657. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., Ghanbari, M., & Warziniack, T. (2020). A probabilistic approach for characterization of sub-annual socioeconomic drought intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships in a changing environment. Water, 12(6), 1522. Wang, Z., Nong, D., Countryman, A. M., Corbett, J. J., & Warziniack, T. (2020). Potential impacts of ballast water regulations on international trade, shipping patterns, and the global economy: An integrated transportation and economic modeling assessment. Journal of Environmental Management, 275, 110892. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., & Warziniack, T. (2021). Effects of climate change on natural-caused fire activity in western US national forests. Atmosphere, 12(8), 981. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., Warziniack, T., & Kao, S. C. (2021). Shifts in hydroclimatology of US megaregions in response to climate change. Environmental Research Communications. Heidari, H., Warziniack, T., Brown, T. C., & Arabi, M. (2021). Impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic conditions of US national forests and grasslands. Forests, 12(2), 139. Chinnasamy, C. V., Arabi, M., Sharvelle, S., Warziniack, T., Furth, C. D., & Dozier, A. (2021). Characterization of Municipal Water Uses in the Contiguous United States. Water Resources Research, e2020WR028627. Warziniack, T., Haight, R. G., Yemshanov, D., Apriesnig, J. L., Holmes, T. P., Countryman, A. M., ... & Haberland, C. (2021). Economics of invasive species. Invasive Species in Forests and Rangelands of the United States, 305. Rasmussen, S., Warziniack, T., Neel, A., O’Neil-Dunne, J., & McHale, M. (2021). When Small Is Not Beautiful: The Unexpected Impacts of Trees and Parcel Size on Metered Water-Use in a Semi-Arid City. Remote Sensing, 13(5), 998. Olander, L., Warnell, K., Warziniack, T., Ghali, Z., Miller, C., & Neelan, C. (2021). Exploring the Use of Ecosystem Services Conceptual Models to Account for the Benefits of Public Lands: An Example from National Forest Planning in the United States. Forests, 12(3), 267. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., & Warziniack, T. Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across US River Basins. Earth's Future, e2021EF002278.   <h1>Publications (10/01/2019 to 09/30/2020)</h1>   Arkansas Tran, D., K. Kovacs, S. Wallander. 2020. “Water conservation with managed aquifer recharge under increased drought risk.” Environmental Management DOI 10.1007/s00267-020-01329-x Tran, D., K. Kovacs, G. West. 2020. “Spatial economic predictions of managed aquifer recharge for an agricultural landscape.” Agricultural Water Management 241: 106337. Kovacs, K, A. Durand-Morat. 2020. “The influence of lateral flows in an aquifer on the agricultural value of groundwater.” Natural Resources Modeling, 33: e12266. Nian, Y., Q. Huang, K. Kovacs, C. Henry, J. Krutz. 2020. “Water management practices: Use patterns, related factors, and correlations with irrigated acres.” Water Resources Research, 56: e2019WR025360. Tran, D., K. Kovacs, S. Wallander. 2019. “Long run optimization of landscape level irrigation through managed aquifer recharge or expanded surface reservoirs.” Journal of Hydrology 579: 124220.   California Reznik, A., Y. Jiang, and A. Dinar, Policy Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Wastewater Treatment Costs: Evidence from China. UCR SPP Working Paper Se-ries, April 2019 - WP#19-01. (https://spp.ucr.edu/sites/g/files/rcwecm1611/files/2019-05/041819_Climate%20Change%20Impacts%20on%20Wastewater%20Treatment%20Costs_WP.pdf.) Tu, C., S. Suweis, and P. D’Odorico, (2019). Impact of globalization on the resilience and sustainability of natural resources, Nature Sustainability, 2, 283-289. D'Odorico P., J.A. Carr, K. F. Davis, J. Dell'Angelo, DA Seekell (2019). "Food inequality, injustice, and rights", BioScience, 69(3), 180-190, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biz002. D’Odorico, P., J.A. Carr, C. Dalin, J. Dell’Angelo, M. Konar, F. Laio, L. Ridolfi, L. Rosa, S. Suweis, M. Tuninetti, (2019). Global virtual water trade and the hydrological cycle: Patterns, drivers, and socio-environmental impacts, Environmental research Letters, 14, 053001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab05f4. Rulli, M.C., S. Casirati, J. Dell’Angelo, K.F. Davis, C. Passera, P. D’Odorico, (2019). Interdependencies and telecoupling of oil palm expansion at the expense of Indonesian rainforest, (2019). Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 105: 499-512, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.12.050. Rosa, L and P. D’Odorico (2019). The water-energy-food nexus of unconventional oil and gas extraction in the Vaca Muerta Play, Argentina, J. Cleaner Production, 207:743-750. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.039 . D’Odorico, P. (2018), The challenges of meeting future food, energy, and water needs, Eos, 99, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EO098891.  Peer Reviewed Publications (journals and book chapters) Reznik, A., Y. Jiang, and A. Dinar, Policy Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Wastewater Treatment Costs: Evidence from China. UCR SPP Working Paper Series, April 2019 - WP#19-01. (https://spp.ucr.edu/sites/g/files/rcwecm1611/files/2019-05/041819_Climate%20Change%20Impacts%20on%20Wastewater%20Treatment%20Costs_WP.pdf.)  Reints, J., A. Dinar and D. Crowley, 2020. Dealing with Water Scarcity and Salinity: Adoption of Water Efficient Technologies and Management Practices by California Avocado Growers. Sustainability, 12(9), 3555. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093555.  Rightnar, J. and A. Dinar, 2020. The Welfare Implications of Bankruptcy Allocation of the Colorado River Water: The Case of the Salton Sea Region. Water Resources Management, 34:2353–2370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02552-1. Ashraf, A. and A. Dinar, 2020. Impact of Short-Run Weather Fluctuations on Farmland Sales and Values. Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, 1:137-147. Purvis, L. and A. Dinar, 2019. Are Intra- and Inter-basin Water Transfers a Sustainable Policy Inter-vention for Addressing Water Scarcity? Water Security, 9:100058, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2019.100058.  Reznik, A., A. Dinar, and F. Hernandez-Sancho, 2019. Treated Wastewater Reuse: An Efficient and Sustainable Solution for Water Resource Scarcity. Environmental and Resource Economics, 74(4):1647–1685. Dinar, A., D. Parker, H. Huynh, and A. Tieu, 2020. The Evolving Nature of California’s Water Economy. Chapter 5 in: P. L. Martin, R. E. Goodhue, and B. D. Wright (Eds.), California Agriculture: Dimensions and Issues. Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics Press. Policy Publications Reznik, Ami and Ariel Dinar, 2020. Reuse of Recycled Municipal Wastewater by Irrigated Agriculture in the Escondido Region, California.” ARE Update 23(4) (2020): 5–8. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. Rightnar, Jacob and Ariel Dinar, 2020. Welfare Consequences on the Salton Sea Region of Re-allocating Colorado River Flow Deficit. ARE Update 23(6) (2020): 5–8. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. Draft Working Papers Reznik, A., A. Dinar, L. Forni, S. Bresnik, B. Joyce, and I. Kan, 2020. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) as a Strategy to Mitigate Drought Impacts in Irrigated Agriculture: The Role of Climate Shocks, Institutions and Policies with Application to California. Final report to USDA-ERS. To appear in 2020 as UCR School of Public Policy Working Paper. Dinar, A., E. Esteban, E. Calvo, G. Herrera, P. Teatini, R. Tomás, Y. Li, P. Ezquerro, and J. Albiac, 2020. We Lose Ground: Global Assessment of Land Subsidence Extent and Determinants. To appear in 2020 as UCR School of Public Policy Working Paper. Dinar, A., E. Esteban, E. Calvo, G. Herrera, P. Teatini, R. Tomás, Y. Li, and J. Albiac, 2020. Land Subsidence: A Groundwater Overexploitation Problem. To appear in 2020 as UCR School of Public Policy Working Paper. Seekell, D.A., P. D'Odorico, and G.K. MacDonald, 2018. "Food, trade, and the environment", Environm. Res. Lett., 13(10), 100201. Rosa., L., M.C. Rulli, K.F. Davis, D. Chiarelli, C. Passera, P. D'Odorico, 2018. Closing the yield gap while ensuring water sustainability, Environm. Res. Lett., 13 104002. Dell'Angelo, J., P. D'Odorico, and M.C. Rulli, (2018). "The neglected costs of water peace", WIREs Water, 5(6), e1316. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1316. Davis, K.F., A. Bhattachan, P. D'Odorico, and S. Suweis, 2018, "A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: Examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh", Environm. Res. Lett., 13, 064030, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d4. D’Odorico, P., K.F. Davis, L. Rosa, J.A. Carr, D. Chiarelli, J. Dell’Angelo, J.A. Gephart, G.K. MacDonald, D.A. Seekell, S Suweis, M.C. Rulli, “The global food-energy-water nexus”, Reviews of Geophysics, 56, 456-531, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017RG000591   Colorado Manning, D., M. Rouhi Rad, J.F. Suter, C. Goemans, Z. Xiang, and R. Bailey. 2020. Non-market Valuation in Integrated Modeling: The Benefits of Water Right Retirement. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 103: 102341. Duke, J., Z. Liu, J.F. Suter, K.D. Messer, and H. Michael. 2020. Some Taxes Are Better Than Others: An Economic Experiment Analyzing Groundwater Management in a Spatially Explicit Aquifer. Water Resources Research. 56(7). Hennighausen, H. and J.F. Suter. 2020. Flood Risk Perception in the Housing Market and the Impact of a Major Flood Event. Land Economics. 96(3): 366-383. Rouhi Rad, M., E. Haacker, V. Sharda, S. Nozari, Z. Xiang, A.A. Berhe, V. Uddameri, J.F. Suter, and P. Gowda. 2020. MOD$$AT: A Hydro-economic Modeling Framework for Aquifer Management in Irrigated Agricultural Regions. Agricultural Water Management. 238: 106194. Zia, A., S. Ding, K.D. Messer, H. Miao, J.F. Suter, J.R. Fooks, T. Guilfoos, S. Trandafir, E. Uchida, Y. Tsai, S. Merrill, S. Turnbull, and C. Koliba. 2020. Characterizing Heterogeneous Behavior of Non-Point Source Polluters in a Spatial Game under Alternate Sensing and Incentive Designs. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 146(8): 04020054 Suter, J.F., S. Collie, K.D. Messer, J.M. Duke, and H.A. Michael. 2019. Common Pool Resource Management at the Extensive and Intensive Margins: Experimental Evidence. Environmental and Resource Economics. 73: 973-993.              Palm-Forster, L.H., J.F. Suter, K.D. Messer. 2019. Experimental Evidence on Policy Approaches that Link Agricultural Subsidies to Water Quality Outcomes. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 101(1): 109-133.                                                            Zhong, Hua, et al. "Who pays for water scarcity? Evaluating the welfare implications of water infrastructure investments for cities." The Annals of Regional Science (2019): 1-42.  Flyr, Matthew, et al. "Modeling Commercial Demand for Water: Exploring Alternative Prices, Instrumental Variables, and Heterogeneity." Land Economics 95.2 (2019): 211-224.  Maas, Alexander, et al. "Complements of the house: Estimating demand-side linkages between residential water and electricity." Water Resources and Economics (2019): 100140.  Boyd, C., D. Davis, L. Garner, M. Germino, M. Eiswerth, S. Boyte, D. Tekiela, K. Mayer, M. Pellant, D. Pyke, M. Ielmini, and S. Franklin. 2020. “Invasive Plant Species.” 59 pp. Chapter 10 in: Tom Remington et al. (Eds.), Sagebrush Conservation Strategy. Draft. Boise, ID: Western Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies. (Peer reviewed.) Eiswerth, M.E., and G.C. van Kooten. 2019. “Maximizing Returns from Payments for Water-based Ecosystem Services: Incorporating Externality Effects of Land Management.” Journal of the American Water Resources Association 55(5) (October 2019): 1335-1348. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12788">https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12788</a>.   Florida Medina, M., R. Huffaker, J. Jawitz, and R. Muñoz-Carpena (2020). Seasonal dynamics of terrestrially sourced nitrogen influenced Karenia brevis blooms off Florida’s southern Gulf Coast. Harmful Algae 98, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2020.101900 . 2.           Huffaker, R. and E. McLamore (2020). A protocol for reconstructing the dynamics of real-world systems from observational data: Application for establishing a digital proxy of a bioreactor (DIYBOT). Protocol Exchange DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.pex-1052/v1. 3.            McLamore, E., R. Huffaker, M. Shupler, K. Ward, S. Palit, A. Datta, M. Banks, G. Casaburi, J. Babilonia, and J. Foster (2020).  Digital Proxy of a Bio-Reactor (DIYBOT) combines sensor data and data analytics to improve greywater treatment and wastewater management systems. Nat. Sci. Rep. 10.8015, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598‐020‐64789‐5. 4.            Medina, M., R. Huffaker, J. Jawitz, and R. Muñoz-Carpena (2019).  Nonlinear dynamics in treatment wetlands: Identifying systematic drivers of non-equilibrium outlet concentrations in Everglades STASs.  Water Resources Research, 55. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024427   Georgia Jeffrey Mullen, Agricultural Water Policy during Drought: A Strategy for Including Groundwater Permits in Future Irrigation Buyout Auctions in the Flint River Basin, Water.   Idaho Awad, K., A. Maas, and C. Wardropper. 2020. “Preferences for Alternative Water Supplies in the Pacific Northwest: A Choice Experiment.” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. Maas, A., Wardropper, C., Roesch-McNally, G., & Abatzoglou, J. 2020. “A (mis) alignment of farmer experience and perceptions of climate change in the US inland Pacific Northwest.” Climatic Change, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02713-6 Puri, R. and A. Maas. 2020. “Evaluating the Sensitivity of Residential Water Demand Estimation to Model Specification and Instrument Choices.” Water Resources Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026156 Maas, A., J. Burkhardt, C. Goemans, D. Manning, M. Arabi. 2020. “Complements of the house: Estimating demand-side linkages between residential water and electricity.” Water Resources & Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2019.02.001 Flyr, M. et al. Modeling Commercial Demand for Water: Exploring Alternative Prices, Instrumental Variables, and Heterogeneity. Land Econ. 95, 211- 224 (2019). Maas, A., Goemans, C., Manning, D. T., Burkhardt, J. & Arabi, M. Complements of the house: Estimating demand-side linkages between residential water and electricity. Water Resour. Econ. 100140 (2019). doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2019.02.001 Taylor, Garth. (2019).Book Review: “Water Paradox" by E. Barbeir 2019; Water Economics and Policy. Larson, Ryan Johnson, D. M., John R. McKean, and R. Garth Taylor. 2019 Valuing Snowmobile Recreation. Applied Economics Forthcoming    Johnson, D. M., John R. McKean, and R. Garth Taylor. Comparing a Hierarchical-Decision Travel Cost Recreation Demand Model to the Traditional Model and Implications for Survey Design. Journal of Leisure Science Forthcoming.  Levan Elbakidze; Hannah Vinson; Kelly Cobourn; R. Garth Taylor. 2018 "Efficient Groundwater Allocation and Binding Hydrologic Externalities" Environmental and Resource Economics 53(1) 147-161.   Indiana Schull, V.Z., B.T. Daher, M.W. Gitau, S. Mehan, and D.C. Flanagan. 2020. Analyzing FEW nexus modeling tools for water resources decision-making and management applications. Food and Bioproducts Processing. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbp.2019.10.011. Aboelnour, M., M.W.Gitau, and Engel, B. 2020. A comparison of streamflow and baseflow responses to land-use change and the variation in climate parameters using SWAT. Water. 2020, 12(1), 191. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010191">https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010191</a>.   Illinois Singh, S., Bhattarai, R., Negm, L. M., Youssef, M. A., & Pittelkow, C. M. (2020). Evaluation of nitrogen loss reduction strategies using DRAINMOD-DSSAT in east-central Illinois. Agricultural Water Management, 240, 106322. Li, S., Bhattarai, R., Cooke, R. A., Verma, S., Huang, X., Markus, M., & Christianson, L. (2020). Relative performance of different data mining techniques for nitrate concentration and load estimation in different type of watersheds. Environmental Pollution, 114618. Jeong, H., Bhattarai, R., Adamowski, J., & David, J. Y. (2020). Insights from socio-hydrological modeling to design sustainable wastewater reuse strategies for agriculture at the watershed scale. Agricultural Water Management, 231, 105983.   Kansas Pates, N. and N.P. Hendricks. 2020. “Additionality from Payments for Environmental Services with Technology Diffusion.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102(1): 281-299.   Louisiana (Paudel) Deborah Williams and Krishna P. Paudel. Migration, Remittance, and Adoption of Conservation Practices. Forthcoming Environmental Management    Santosh Pathak, Hari K. Panta, Thaneshwar Bhandari, and Krishna P. Paudel. Flood Vulnerability and Its Influencing Factors. Forthcoming Natural Hazard    Krishna P. Paudel, Ashok K. Mishra, Mahesh Pandit, Sherry Larkin, Rodrick Rejesus, and Margarita Velandia. 2020. Modeling Multiple Reasons for Adopting Precision Technologies: Evidence from U.S. Cotton Producers. Computer and Electronics in Agriculture 175(August):105625.   Michigan Rasu, R., A. P. Nejadhashemi, F. Couto Alves, B. Saravi, Evaluating the Applicability of a Soil Moisture-based Metrics for Gauging the Resiliency of Rainfed Agricultural Systems in the Midwestern United States, Soil & Tillage Research, in review.   Minnesota Levers, L., Pradhananga, A., & Peterson, J. (In review) Whom do you trust? Willingness to accept for perennial crop adoption. Levers, L., Story, D. & Schwabe, K. (2020). Boons or Boondoggles: An Assessment of Salton Sea Water Importation Proposals. California Agriculture.        Mississippi Quintana-Ashwell, N.; Gholson, D.M.; Krutz, L.J.; Henry, C.G.; Cooke, T. Adoption of Water-Conserving Irrigation Practices among Row-Crop Growers in Mississippi, USA. Agronomy 2020, 10, 1083. Pinnamaneni, S.R., Anapalli, S.S., Reddy, K.N., Fisher, D.K. and Quintana Ashwell, N.E., Assessing irrigation water use efficiency and economy of twin‐row soybean in the Mississippi Delta. Agronomy Journal 2020.   Missouri Fan, Yubing and Laura McCann, 2020. "Adoption of Pressure Irrigation Systems and Scientific Irrigation Scheduling Practices by U.S. Farmers: An Application of Multilevel Models," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 45(2). Lee, Seungyub and Laura McCann. 2019 “Adoption of Cover Crops by U.S. Soybean Producers.”  Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Vol 51 (4): 527-544.   New Jersey Karen M. O’Neill and Heather Fenyk. 2019. Engaging the Community to Envision the Coastal Climate Future. Pp. 155-169 in Elizabeth Mossop (ed.). Sustainable Coastal Design and Planning. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.   North Carolina Edwards, E.C. and Guilfoos, T. Forthcoming. The Economics of Groundwater Governance Institutions Across the Globe. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. Sanchez, L., Edwards, E.C., and Leonard, B. 2020. The Economics of Indigenous Water Claim Settlements in the American West. Environmental Research Letters, vol. 15, 094027. Ge, M., Edwards, E.C. and Akhundjanov, S.B. 2020. Irrigation Investment on an American Indian Reservation. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 102(4), pp.1083-1104. Branan, R., Edwards, E.C., Hutchens, A., and Sutherland, S.A. 2019. How North Carolinians Benefit from Water Pollution Credit Trading. NC State Economist, NC State University College of Ag and Life Science, Fall 2019.   Oklahoma Samimi, M., Mirchi, A., Bailey, R., Ma, L. SWAT-Salt simulation of salinity in Elephant Butte Irrigation District. 2020 Annual International Meeting of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers; Singh, A., Mirchi, A., Daggubati, S.&dagger;, Mirchi, A., Taghvaeian, S. Analysis of Oklahoma’s agro-climatic trends using divisional and mesoscale data. 2020 Annual International Meeting of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers; Sheng, Z., Ahn, S., Jung, C., Park, S., Bailey, R., Granados-Olivas, A., Mirchi, A., Samimi, M., Hargrove, W.L. Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW modeling for determining groundwater sustainability under climate and pumping scenarios in a semi-arid agricultural watershed. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco, California; Singh, A., Daggubati, S., Mirchi, A., Taghvaeian, S. Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends using mesoscale climatological records in Oklahoma, US. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco, CA.;  Samimi, M., Mirchi, A., Townsend, N.T., Gutzler, D.S., Ahn, S., Moriasi, D., Granados-Olivas, Mayer, A., Alian, S., Hargrove, W.L., 2019. Climate change impact assessment for an agricultural watershed in the US Desert Southwest. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco, CA.  Mirchi, A., Heyman, J., Tchobanoglous, G., Minakata, D., Walker, S., Samimi, M., Guerrero, B., Handler, R. (2019). Community implementation of potable reuse of treated wastewater. In: Halvorsen, K.E., Schelly, C., Handler, R., and Knowlton, J.L. (Eds.). A Research Agenda for Environmental Management. Edward Elgar Publishing. Cheltenham.    Ahn, S., Abudu, S., Sheng, Z., Mirchi, A., (2018). Hydrologic impacts of drought-adaptive agricultural water management in a semi-arid river basin: Case of Rincon Valley, New Mexico. Agricultural Water Management 209, 206-218.    Samimi, M., Tahneen Jahan, N.*, Mirchi, A. (2018). Assessment of climate change impacts on surface water hydrologic processes in New Mexico-Texas-Mexico border region. Proceedings of the 2018 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress: Protecting and Securing Water and the Environment for Future Generations, American Society of Civil Engineers. Minneapolis, Minnesota.       Rhode Island Weir, M.J., Ashcraft, C.M., Leuchanka Diessner, N., McGreavy, B., Vogler, E. and Guilfoos, T., 2020. Language effects on bargaining. Plos one, 15(3), p.e0229501.   South Carolina Rouhi Rad, M, Araya, A., & Zambreski, Z. “Downside risk of aquifer depletion.” Irrigation Science (2020).   US Forest Service Warziniack, T., Sims, C., Haas, J. (2019). Fire and the joint production of ecosystem service: A spatial-dynamic optimization approach, Forest Policy and Economics. (refereed) [1] Warziniack, T., Brown, T.C., (2019). The importance of municipal and agricultural demands in future water shortages in the United States, Environmental Resource Letters. Wang, A., Nong, D., Countryman, A., Corbett, J.J., Warziniack, T. (2020). Potential impacts of ballast water regulations on international trade, shipping patterns, and the global economy: An integrated transportation and economic modeling assessment, Journal of Environmental Management 275. Heidari, H. Arabi, M., Warziniack, T., Kao, S. (2020). Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century. Earth's Future. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., Ghanbari, M., Warziniack, T. (2020). A Probabilistic Approach for Characterization of Sub-Annual Socioeconomic Drought Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Relationships in a Changing Environment, Water 12 (6). Champ, P.A., Meldrum, J., Brenkert-Smith, H., Warziniack, T., Barth, C.M., ... (2020). Do actions speak louder than words? Comparing the effect of risk aversion on objective and self-reported mitigation measures, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 169, 301-313

Impact Statements

US Forest Service (Warziniack) Scientists at the US Forest Service have developed models of water demand and use around climate and socioeconomic futures to examine the vulnerability of water supplies. They find that despite reductions in water demand for much of the U.S., reductions in yield will make shortages more severe. Scientists at the US Forest Service have developed risk indices of watersheds throughout the United States, examining risk from development, wildfire, and mineral extraction. They find development is the leading cause of risk to watershed health in the United States. Scientists at the US Forest Service are working with water utilities to assess risks to watershed health and develop conservation finance tools for long-term sustainability of source watersheds.

Date of Annual Report: 12/20/2022

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 10/20/2022 - 10/21/2022
Period the Report Covers: 10/01/2021 - 09/30/2022

Participants

Participants Attachment:

W4190_2022_Annual_Meeting_Minutes.docx

Brief Summary of Minutes

Minutes Attachment:

W4190_2022_Annual_Meeting_Minutes.docx

Accomplishments

Objective 1: Characterize water resource and human system response to climatic and anthropogenic perturbations.   California (Dinar) Our study on Managed Aquifer Recharge in California (Institutions and the Economic Efficiency of Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Mitigation Strategy Against Drought Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture in California) addressed water availability and system institutions effects on water resource management performances in a regional context. The project allowed a postdoc to gain experience in analysis of regional optimization of water management under scarcity, present in international fora and publish a technical and policy paper.   Colorado (Eiswerth, Goemans, Suter, Kroll) Characterized the historic reliability of water rights in South Platte across different ditch systems and compared these estimates to conditions experienced post 2002 to (a) obtain a better understanding of how water right reliability has changed relative to the 1950-2002 period and (b) to estimate how changes in the producer beliefs regarding the reliability of their water rights impacts their investment in water efficient irrigation systems.    Idaho (Maas, Taylor) In 2022 we: <ol> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Quantified changes in water use across municipal and agricultural users and the corresponding relationship with crop production and farm revenues;</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Began a project investigating the implications of increased drought (and corresponding fallow and bare land) for particulate matter and human health;</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Submitted two grants to the USDA to investigate the potential of Low-tech Process-based Restoration technologies as an effective adaptation strategy to increased drought in the West. </li> </ol>   Michigan (Nejadhashemi, O’Neil, Wolfson) A group of my graduate students at MSU demonstrated the applicability of agricultural innovation in generating practical recommendations for farmers in the region to mitigate the negative impacts of climate variabilities and changes on crop production.  Innovization means discovering innovations through optimization.  Through a collaborative, multi-disciplinary project with the University of Michigan (UM), the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University (IWR-MSU) developed an online decision support system to guide water management in the Clinton River watershed. The Clinton River Watershed Explorer (<a href="https://iwr.msu.edu/ClintonRiver/">https://iwr.msu.edu/ClintonRiver/</a>) allows users to evaluate the impacts of urbanization, wetland loss, climate change, storm intensity, and land conservation on a range of hydrologic outputs, including surface runoff, groundwater recharge, and E. coli likelihood. The tool allows users to explore how those outputs vary spatially under both short and long-term projections of climate change, and in response to hypothetical extreme storm events. The tool also provides access to real-time and historical water level monitoring data from sensors deployed by UM and IWR-MSU, and includes narrative components to inform more general audiences about water resources in the region. Local stakeholders were heavily involved in the tool’s design and testing. A webinar for stakeholders was held in August 2022 (<a href="https://umich.zoom.us/rec/play/2wIa3t_tUZs6iZnZ8kztfwsKXRUD17knDU6vWg8beLa6-RLFn9UdFTWOjOMg0qxO0MSTo5u4ncSz0aXC.udvH4uPkkH875JHg?startTime=1661967109000&_x_zm_rtaid=Xq6xuBlBRbiUA6xI9dLhiA.1664565584448.cee76b5a7731d77516a87ab6f4fc1045&_x_zm_rhtaid=721">https://umich.zoom.us/rec/play/2wIa3t_tUZs6iZnZ8kztfwsKXRUD17knDU6vWg8beLa6-RLFn9UdFTWOjOMg0qxO0MSTo5u4ncSz0aXC.udvH4uPkkH875JHg?startTime=1661967109000&_x_zm_rtaid=Xq6xuBlBRbiUA6xI9dLhiA.1664565584448.cee76b5a7731d77516a87ab6f4fc1045&_x_zm_rhtaid=721</a>).  PFAS is an anthropogenic chemical that has gotten into groundwater, a major source of drinking water in the state of Michigan.  There are many unknowns about the chemical’s effect on human health. This study is exploring attitudes and perceptions concerning PFAS and other contaminants in drinking water, particularly private water wells. An online Qualtrics survey is being conducted across the state, in areas of known PFAS contamination and areas where it has not been reported.  Persons on either private well water or public water supplies can complete the survey. Results will help inform Universities and state agencies where further research or information directed to the public is needed.   US Forest Service (Warziniack) The US Forest Service recently completed its 2020 Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, scheduled to come out in 2023. The Assessment examines trends in the supply and demand of water throughout the conterminous United States and projects likely shortage due to climate and socioeconomic change. Despite many areas seeing decreases in water use, the assessment shows population growth and drought are likely to lead to increased shortage in some of the driest parts of the country.    USDA Economic Research Service (Hrozencik, Potter) Studied how investments in irrigation infrastructure (e.g., canal lining and piping) can address water scarcity issues.  Began a project characterizing the economic impacts of reduced snowpack in the western U.S.    Texas (Rouhi Rad) Studied the effect of Tubbs Fire in California on ecosystem services including water quantity and quality.   Wyoming (Hansen) Hansen conducted two surveys of Wyoming community members and water managers regarding their risk perceptions of water-related natural hazards. Hansen submitted a grant to USDA to facilitate improved agricultural decision-making around weather and climate in Oregon and Wyoming. Hansen completed a summary of projected climate change impacts in the Northern Plains region (CO, MT, NE, ND, NS, WY) for an Environmental Defense Fund report on agricultural water stress. Objective 2: Quantify water demand and value of water in competing and complementary water uses.   Arkansas (Kovacs) We use climate change narratives to evaluate the stated preferences for long-term groundwater management.  We randomly assigned respondents to an individualistic cultural narrative about climate change to test for framing effects predicted by culturally congruent and incongruent messaging.  Other work considers the heterogeneity in time preferences for an investment in irrigation.  We use a random time parameter bivariate probit to estimate individual time preferences using exponential and hyperbolic discounting forms for agricultural producers making an irrigation investment.     California (Dinar) We were able to estimate in our study on Managed Aquifer Recharge in California  ((Institutions and the Economic Efficiency of Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Mitigation Strategy Against Drought Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture in California) the value of water for different users under various scenarios of climate change, water availability, and institutional arrangements in the region under analysis. The project allowed a postdoc to gain experience in analysis of regional optimization of water management under scarcity, present in international fora and publish a technical and policy paper.   Colorado (Suter, Goemans) Completed a project that  used remote sensing to map annual irrigation quantity at the field-scale within the central Ogallala aquifer region of the United States. Annual irrigation volume data at the field scale in the Republican River Basin of Colorado for 2015–2018 and at the Public Land Survey System (PLSS) section scale in western Kansas for 2000–2016 was used with satellite ET data to calibrate a model that was then used to predict annual irrigation amounts at the field level for areas where such data is not available.   Used data on agricultural property transactions in Otero County, CO to estimate costs associated with soil salinity to irrigated agriculture. The research also evaluates how receiving irrigation water from specific canals in the county impacts property value and the extent to which this reflects the value of water right seniority from specific canals.   Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Supervised a dissertation, where one essay estimates the economic cost of aquifer depletion. The paper was submitted to a journal and received a revise and resubmit. The results from this paper and some other studies were used to write an extension publication titled “The Value of Groundwater in the High Plains Aquifer of Western Kansas.” This paper summarized research that estimates on groundwater stocks affect land values, annual economic returns to land, and spillovers into the livestock and agribusiness sectors. Supervised a dissertation, where one essay estimates how groundwater stocks affects corn production across the High Plains Aquifer. We find that indeed corn production is smaller in areas with smaller groundwater stocks. We decompose the overall change in production into a change in total irrigated acres, a change in proportion of irrigated acres planted to corn, and a change in irrigated corn yield. We also wrote a paper and presented it in two different meetings that estimate the impact of irrigation efficiency upgrades on water use. We utilize new econometric methods that avoid bias in previous estimates and show how farmer adapt over time to an improvement in irrigation efficiency.  Participated in workshop on water markets. Also presented a paper that estimates the farmland value of water right seniority and allocation depths in a hedonic framework.    Kentucky (Buck) Completed and published research on the effect of salinity on crop choice in California went through scientific review, which resulted in comparisons of the effect of salinity on crop choice for producers without recent changes in land-use versus producers with recent changes in land-use. The results of this comparative analysis are consistent with our overall finding that there is statistically and economically significant heterogeneity in the effect of salinity on agricultural land-use. This work is important because it sheds light on how alternative water quality management regimes may impact crop composition between low and high value crops in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region of California. Completed and published research on the consumer welfare impacts of mandated conservation standards (water restrictions) in urban areas of California went through scientific review, which resulted in comparisons of welfare impacts inferred using alternative statistical models and subsamples for estimation of the demand curve’s slope.  This type of comparison is significant since inaccurate estimates of the demand curve’s slope can lead to economically large differences in the monetized impacts consumers experience from water restrictions.  Consistent with this recognition of variable impacts, the overall significance of the work is to illustrate that consumer impacts in response to mandated water restrictions vary across space.  The work also discusses variation in the methods utilities used to achieve mandated water restrictions in their respective service areas as well as the pattern of compliance with restrictions across space. Mississippi (Quintana) Enriched a water use dataset obtained from Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality. The obtained data includes flowmeter readings, irrigated acres and crop receiving irrigation water for the reported period by permitted well. The data was enriched by obtaining GIS data on the permitted acreage, including CDL crop choice data by year, weather variables for the permitted field. From data obtained from USGS, we further enriched the dataset with depth-to-water information. Work is in process to geolocate on-farm water storage facilities along with collaboration with USDA-ARS partners to estimate the available stock of captured water available for irrigation from those sources. Once completed and updated, the data will eventually be made available to researchers via the National Center for Alluvial Aquifer Research.   Missouri (McCann)  Co-authored a poster (with Tanya Pongspikul) presented at the AAEA meetings regarding factors affecting desalination plant adoption.  Submitted a grant to USDA regarding integration of water quality and water quantity issues with Karina Schoengold of the W-4190, and others.     North Carolina (Edwards) Co-organized a workshop of 15 economists, legal scholars, and practitioners to explore forthcoming issues in groundwater markets over two days of academic paper presentations and discussion. Edited a volume of policy pieces exploring emerging issues in water markets based on a prior workshop.   Oklahoma (Lambert) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Began research on the marginal value of irrigation water in the Oklahoma Panhandle region</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;"> Received a seed grant from Oklahoma State University Rural Research Initiative to quantify drought severity and impacts on Oklahoma’s rural communities</li> </ul>   US Forest Service (Warziniack) The US Forest Service recently published projections of water use throughout the conterminous United States, which includes projections for household, agricultural, and thermoelectric water use out to 2070. The work was published in a recent issue of Earth’s Future.    USDA Economic Research Service (Hrozencik, Potter) The USDA continued to publish information collected in the 2019 Survey of Irrigation Organizations which collected novel data on the institutions (e.g., irrigation districts, acequias, ditch companies, etc.) that deliver water to the irrigated agricultural sector.  Part of this research program characterizes water demand by irrigated ag sector rely on off-farm (i.e., delivered by an irrigation organization) water..    Texas (Rouhi Rad) Studied the management of water resources in the southeastern US. We have seen significant shifts in water management institutions in the southeast in the past few decades. We studied whether these shifts are towards better defining property rights or towards more central management of water. We find mixed evidence. We also argue that a major driver such policy shifts have been an increase in water scarcity, such as temporal droughts or population growth. The paper was presented at the UCOWR annual meeting.   Objective 3: Evaluate and compare coordinated/integrated management of water sources and land use practices.   Arkansas (Kovacs) We use optimization of a structural dynamic model to evaluate the cost of carbon sequestration when afforestation subsidies are used to encourage private landowners to switch from cropland to forestry.  We apply the model to a portion of the Lower Mississippi River Basin in Arkansas where groundwater overdraft lowers the profitability of irrigated crops.  We explore the joint use of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) and on-farm reservoirs and tail-water recovery system to sustain groundwater and agricultural income with climate variability by farmer risk preference. We find that MAR use declines slightly with greater risk aversion and declines rapidly with MAR cost. California (Dinar, D’Odorico) Our modeling framework developed in the study on Managed Aquifer Recharge in California (Institutions and the Economic Efficiency of Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Mitigation Strategy Against Drought Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture in California) was based on introducing various integrated/coordinated management options of water across the region studied, such as mixing surface and groundwater, changing water-applications for various crops, and moving water across users in different parts of the region. The project allowed a postdoc to gain experience in analysis of regional optimization of water management under scarcity, present in international fora and publish a technical and policy paper.   Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Presented a poster on the impacts of soil salinity on crop choices in California. Presented a paper on whether crop choices and irrigation behaviors align with stated concerns over groundwater quantity and quality.    Michigan (Asher, Najadhashemi, O’Neil, Wolfson, Sears)  The Clinton River Watershed Explorer was mentioned above under Michigan’s accomplishments for Objective 1. With regards to the topic areas of Objective 3, the tool allows users to evaluate how land use change impacts surface runoff at a field-scale (under various climate scenarios and temporal scales). It also provides a watershed-scale view of the impacts of land use change (especially urbanization) on water volume and the likelihood of E. coli events in streams. IWR-MSU completed a collaborative project with Keweenaw Bay Ojibwe Community College (KBOCC, part of the L’Anse Reservation in Michigan’s upper peninsula) modeling groundwater flow and its relationship to Arsenic concentrations. The resulting groundwater flow maps informed ongoing and future monitoring of residential drinking wells by KBOCC, and in the college’s exploration of potential sources of the arsenic contamination on the reservation. KBOCC and IWR-MSU are continuing the collaboration with additional funding to further model the arsenic hot spots revealed by the initial project’s monitoring, and to begin exploring the fate and transport of uranium in the reservation’s groundwater.  The project, Floating Plants in a Constructed Wetland for Phosphorus Removal from Tile Drain Runoff is exploring the removal of phosphorus and nitrogen from tile drainage from an alfalfa field through the use a floating wetland and determining the best plant species to use based on their increased biomass and resiliency over time. The two-stage wetland has resulted in decreased phosphorus leaving the wetland and entering the receiving stream, a tributary to Lake Erie.  Mississippi (Quintana) Research on the benefits of irrigation and pluvial runoff capture and re-use is ongoing. A first article looking at the optimal management of irrigation water from aquifer and on-farm storage sources was published with the insight that the main benefits of the practice became evident when evaluated over the life of the aquifer as opposed to a business plan time-horizon. Currently, the model is being enriched to account for the positive externalities associated with sediment and nutrient retention that result from tailwater recovery, storage and reuse.   Nebraska (Schoengold) Published a paper on the effect of different policy designs on the public value of ecosystem services (including water quality) provided by conservation investments in agriculture.  Presented a paper that evaluates the public’s value for ecosystem services with varying spatial benefits, including improvements in water quality (AAEA, 2022).   Oklahoma (Lambert) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Published research on public willingness to pay for farmer adoption of BMP in Oklahoma’s Fort Cobb Watershed.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Supported graduate student research and thesis on dryland double cropping systems’ technical and economic efficiency analysis</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Submitted a grant application  to USDA on climate-smart crop production in the U.S. central plains</li> </ul>   Texas (Rouhi Rad) Building an integrated modeling framework for Colorado’s Lower Arkansas Valley in a collaboration with Suter (Colorado State) to estimate tradeoffs associated with managing water salinity externalities and study the benefits of a land fallowing program.   Wyoming (Hansen) Nothing to report.   Objective 4: Evaluate and compare alternative water quantity and quality management strategies and institutions.   California (Dinar) The study on Managed Aquifer Recharge in California (Institutions and the Economic Efficiency of Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Mitigation Strategy Against Drought Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture in California) evaluates different water policy interventions (such as: salinity regulations and quantity of surface water and GW constraints) and a set of institutions to manage groundwater stocks (such as SGMA-based allocations, and GW credit exchanges). The project allowed a postdoc to gain experience in analysis of regional optimization of water management under scarcity, present in international fora and publish a technical and policy paper.   Colorado (Suter, Goemans, Eiswerth) Developed a regional water allocation model of the South Platte River basin that was used to examine the impact of climate change and population growth under alternative institutional settings (e.g., prior-appropriation versus proportional sharing). A manuscript was completed and submitted for publication. A generalized form of the model was also developed that allows user types and characteristics to randomize location throughout the basin. This model was utilized to explore the sensitivity of the results to how high/low priority, high/low value, and high/low consumptive use users were located throughout the basin. The results provide insight into when proportional allocation institutions are preferred to prior appropriation and vice-versa.   Building an integrated modeling framework for Colorado’s Lower Arkansas Valley in a collaboration with Rouhi Rad (Texas) to estimate tradeoffs associated with managing water salinity externalities.   Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Published a paper that estimates the environmental impacts of the Renewable Fuels Standard. Published a paper that estimates capitalization of ethanol market expansion into irrigated and non-irrigated farmland values in Kansas.    Michigan (O’Neil, Asher, Ghane)  Michigan State University (Asher and O’Neil) partnered with the non-profit organization For Love of Water (FLOW) to evaluate the economic costs of utilizing institutional controls as a response to groundwater contamination in Michigan. The collaborative effort is using a case-study approach to explore the histories at eight sites of contamination in Michigan in which forms of institutional controls (e.g., restrictive covenants, ordinances) were adopted to address the problem. At some of the sites these methods were adopted in lieu of more aggressive (and more costly) clean-up options, such as soil excavation or pumping and treating. For each site the team is working with state and local agencies, local communities, and (when available) liable parties to build a historical record of the costs incurred by relying on institutional controls, and a projection of economic impacts (from health, property value, to lost recreational opportunity) that can happen when a contamination is allowed to run its course. The primary output of the project will be a decision framework that will help communities, consultants, and regulators evaluate the long-term costs of institutional controls when faced with future contaminations. The two-year project just completed its first year. The project team shared the project design and some initial findings at the 11th Annual Michigan Section of the American Institute of Professional Geologists Workshop in June 2022 (<a href="https://mi.aipg.org/workshop/2022/Workshop%20Agenda%202022.pdf">https://mi.aipg.org/workshop/2022/Workshop%20Agenda%202022.pdf</a>). Ghane developed ten peer-reviewed Extension Bulletin to address stakeholder questions regarding the choice of pipe material in how fast water can be removed from the field. In response to questions that Ghane received via phone calls and emails from Michigan stakeholders, he wrote bulletins as the first author. These publications offer new and practical information about addressing common drainage design issues. These publications are available on Ghane’s Drainage Extension website. These activities resulted in four Extension awards, three national and one university-wide awards.     Effort: (Obj. 4) – Ghane published a paper about the effect of pipe material on the performance of a drainage system and the bottom line of the producer. This paper was transferred to an Extension bulletin to disseminate research to stakeholders.  Outcome: (Obj. 4) – E. Ghane. 2022. Choice of pipe material influences drain spacing and system cost in subsurface drainage design. Applied Engineering in Agriculture. 38 (1): 685-695.<a href="http://www.doi.org/10.13031/aea.15053"> www.doi.org/10.13031/aea.15053</a>    Effort: (Obj. 4) – Ghane published a paper showing how geotextiles can remove water from the field more quickly. This paper was transferred to an Extension bulletin to disseminate research to stakeholders.  Outcome: (Obj. 4) – E. Ghane, AbdalAal, Y., Dialameh, B., M. Ghane. 2022. Knitted-sock geotextile envelopes increase drain inflow in subsurface drainage systems. Agricultural Water Management. 274, 107939.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107939"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107939</a>     Effort: (Obj. 4) – Ghane published a paper showing how water sampling should be performed to get an accurate estimate of phosphorus loss from the subsurface-drained farm. This leads to accurate evaluation of conservation practices.  Outcome: (Obj. 4) – B. Dialameh, E. Ghane. 2022. Effect of water sampling strategies on the uncertainty of phosphorus load estimation in subsurface drainage discharge. Journal of Environmental Quality. 1-12.<a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20339"> www.doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20339</a>    North Carolina (Edwards)  Used statistical and modeling to understand the role of water transfers on the local economy and environment of rural economies. Presented this work to academic audiences via five presentations: two online seminar series, a regional economics workshop, and two departmental seminars at Iowa State and Penn State. Performed a long-run land use econometric analysis to assess the impact of water rights settlements on the economic outcomes of Native American groups in the western United States. Presented the work to two academic audiences at Montana State and the Center for Indian Country Development.   Oklahoma (Lambert) Published research  on understanding  switchgrass production impact on surface water runoff and sediment; the economic impact of flood-induced disruption on waterway transportation; and economic value of weather decision support systems for Oklahoma public safety officials.    Wyoming (Hansen) Hansen has been working with partners from across the western U.S. to form the Western Water Network, a collaboration across researchers, extensions specialists, and stakeholders to address sustainability issues related to water use in the West. The network received rapid response funding from NIFA, held an initial assembly in 2022, and will hold its first congress in 2023.  Hansen and colleagues completed a stakeholder feasibility assessment of a water conservation program (Demand Management) for the Wyoming portion of the Colorado River Basin, for the Wyoming State Engineer’s Office, informing policymakers of stakeholders views and educating Wyoming water users/stakeholders of an important and impactful water availability situation in southwestern Wyoming.   US Forest Service (Warziniack) Nothing to report.

Publications

Arkansas West, G., K. Kovacs, R. Nayga. 2022. “The influence of a climate change narrative on the stated preferences for long-term groundwater management.” Environmental Management 69: 61-74. Kovacs, K., H. Snell. 2021. “Heterogeneity in time preferences for an investment in irrigation.” Land Economics 97(4): 819-835. Kovacs, K., R. Haight, K. Moore, M. Popp. 2021. “Afforestation for carbon sequestration in the Lower Mississippi River Basin of Arkansas, USA: Does modeling of land use a fine spatial resolution reveal lower carbon cost?” Forest Policy and Economics 130: 102526. Bailey, V., K. Kovacs, C. Henry; Q. Huang, L.J. Krutz. 2021. “Peer Irrigators and the Choice of Field Management and Water Control Practices for Irrigation in Arkansas.” Agronomy 11: 2473. Tran, D., K. Kovacs. 2021. “Climate uncertainty and optimal groundwater augmentation.” Water Resources Research 57: e2021WR030114.   California Reznik, A., A. Dinar, S. Bresney, L. Forni, B. Joyce, S. Wallander, D. Bigelow, and I. Kan, 2022. Institutions and the Economic Efficiency of Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Mitigation Strategy Against Drought Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture in California. Water Resources Research, (Accepted for publication May 16, 2022),<a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021WR031261"> https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021WR031261</a>. Reznik, A., A. Dinar, S. Bresney, L. Forni, B. Joyce, S. Wallander, D. Bigelow, and I. Kan. “Can Managed Aquifer Recharge Mitigate Drought Impacts on California’s Irrigated Agriculture? The Role for Institutions and Policies.” ARE Update 24(4) (2021):5–8. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. Reznik, A., A. Dinar, S. Bresney, L. Forni, B. Joyce, S. Wallander, D. Bigelow, and I. Kan, Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Strategy to Mitigate Drought Impacts in Irrigated Agriculture: Role of Institutions and Policies with Application to California. Paper presented at the 26th EAERE annual conference, 23-25 June, 2021, Berlin, Germany. Reznik A., A. Dinar (Presenter), S. Bresney, L. Forni, B. Joyce, S. Wallander, D. Bigelow, and I. Kan. Managed Aquifer Recharge as a strategy for Mitigating Drought Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture in California. Paper presented at the UC Center Sacramento, April 6, 2022.   Colorado Blumberg, Joey, Chris Goemans, and Dale Manning. Producer Beliefs and Conservation: The Impact of Perceived Water Scarcity on Irrigation Technology Adoption. No. w30080. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2022. Filippelli, Steven K., et al. "Remote sensing of field-scale irrigation withdrawals in the central Ogallala aquifer region." Agricultural Water Management 271 (2022): 107764. Meiselman, B.S., C. Weigel, P.J. Ferraro, M. Masters, K.D. Messer, O.M. Savchenko, and J.F. Suter. 2022. Lottery Incentives and Resource Management: Evidence from the Agricultural Data Reporting Incentive Program (AgDRIP). Environmental and Resource Economics. 82 (4), 847-867. Ahsanuzzaman, A., L.H. Palm-Forster, and J.F. Suter. 2022. Experimental Evidence of Common Pool Resource Use in the Presence of Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 194, 139-160. Hrozencik, A., D.M. Manning, J.F. Suter, and C. Goemans. 2022. Impacts of Block-Rate Energy Pricing on Groundwater Demand in Irrigated Agriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 104(1), 404-427.   Idaho Becker, D. A., Maas, A., Bayham, J., & Crooks, J. (2022). The unintended benefits of the Conservation Reserve Program for air quality. GeoHealth, 6(10), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GH000648. Burton, K., A. Maas, and K. Lee. 2022. “The Temporal and Spatial Extent of Property Value Losses Following a Freshwater Chemical Spill”. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 2022, 47(3) Du, X., Elbakidze, L., Lu, L., & Taylor, R. G. (2022). Climate Smart Pest Management. Sustainability, 14(16), 9832.   Kansas Lark, Tyler J, Nathan P. Hendricks, Aaron Smith, Nicholas Pates, Seth A. Spawn-Lee, Matthew Bougie, Eric Booth, Christopher J. Kucharik, and Holly K Gibbs. 2022. “Environmental Outcomes of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (9): e2101084119. Perez-Quesada, G. 2022. “Essays on the economics of groundwater depletion and management in irrigated agriculture.” PhD Dissertation, Kansas State University. https://krex.k-state.edu/dspace/handle/2097/42160  Hendricks, N.P. and G.S. Sampson. 2022. “The Value of Groundwater in the High Plains Aquifer of Western Kansas.” Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics Extension Publication. February 10, 2022. Available at: https://www.agmanager.info/ag-policy/water-policy/value-groundwater-high-plains-aquifer-western-kansas   Gardner, G. and G.S. Sampson. 2022. “Land Value Impact of Ethanol Market Expansion by Irrigation Status.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 47 (3): 563-579. Lee, J. and N.P. Hendricks. 2022. “Irrigation Decisions in Response to Groundwater Salinity in Kansas.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 47(3): 616-633.    Kentucky Buck, S., Nemati, M., & Sunding, D. (2021). Consumer welfare consequences of the California drought conservation mandate. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. Uz, D., Buck, S., & Sunding, D. (2022). Fixed or mixed? Farmer‐level heterogeneity in response to changes in salinity. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 104(4), 1343-1363.   Michigan (Ghane, Nejadhashemi, Asher, O’Neil) Thomas, J. Asher, G. O'Neil, J. Allan. 2022. A decision support tool for measuring and tracking the social benefits of water resources in Michigan coastal communities, Journal of Great Lakes Research, ISSN 0380-1330, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2022.07.005. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0380133022001757) Ghane, AbdalAal, Y., Dialameh, B., M. Ghane. 2022. Knitted-sock geotextile envelopes increase drain inflow in subsurface drainage systems. Agricultural Water Management. 274, 107939.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107939"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107939</a> Ghane. 2022. Choice of pipe material influences drain spacing and system cost in subsurface drainage design. Applied Engineering in Agriculture. 38 (1): 685-695.<a href="http://www.doi.org/10.13031/aea.15053"> www.doi.org/10.13031/aea.15053</a> Dialameh, E. Ghane. 2022. Effect of water sampling strategies on the uncertainty of phosphorus load estimation in subsurface drainage discharge. Journal of Environmental Quality. 1-12.<a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20339"> www.doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20339</a> Helmers, L. Abendroth, B. Reinhart, G. Chighladze, L. Pease, L. Bowling, M. Youssef, E. Ghane, L. Ahiablame, L. Brown, N. Fausey, J. Frankenberger, D. Jaynes, K. King, E. Kladivko, K. Nelson, J. Strock. 2022. Impact of controlled drainage on subsurface drainage drain flow and nitrate load: A synthesis of studies across the U.S. Midwest and Southeast. Agricultural Water Management. 259, 107265.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107265"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107265</a> Kropp, I., Nejadhashemi, A.P., Jha, P. and Hernandez-Suarez, J.S., 2022. Agricultural Innovization: An Optimization-Driven solution for sustainable agricultural intensification in Michigan. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 199, p.107143.  Mississippi Quintana-Ashwell, Nicolas E., and Drew M. Gholson. "Optimal Management of Irrigation Water from Aquifer and Surface sources." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 54.3 (2022): 496-514.   Nebraska Alhassan, M., Gustafson, C. R., & Schoengold, K. (2022). Effects of information on smallholder irrigation farmers’ willingness to pay for groundwater protection. Agricultural Economics, 53(2), 191-203. Khanal, B., Schoengold, K., Mieno, T., & Schulte Moore, L. (2022). The impact of policy design on willingness to pay for ecosystem services from prairie strips. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 1(3), 352-369. Rimsaite, R., Gibson, J., and Brozović, N., 2021, Informing drought mitigation policy by estimating the value of water for crop production, Environmental Research Communications, v. 3 (4), 041004. Suchato, P., Mieno, T., Schoengold, K., & Foster, T. (2022). The potential for moral hazard behavior in irrigation decisions under crop insurance. Agricultural Economics, 53(2), 257-273. Young, R., Foster, T., Mieno, T., Valocchi, A., and Brozović, N., 2021, Hydrologic‐economic trade‐offs in groundwater allocation policy design, Water Resources Research, v. 57 (1), e2020WR027941.   North Carolina Edwards, E.C. and Smith, S.M. 2021. Water Storage and Agricultural Resilience to Drought: Historical Evidence of the Capacity and Institutional Limits in the United States. Environmental Research Letters, 16(124020). Edwards, E.C. and Guilfoos, T. 2021. The Economics of Groundwater Governance Institutions Across the Globe. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 43(4): 1571-1594. Edwards, E.C. and Thurman, W.N. The Economics of Climatic Adaptation: Agricultural Drainage in the United States. Forthcoming in Gary Libecap and Ariel Dinar eds. American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change. National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago Press. Edwards, E. and I. Burnett. 2022. Coastal Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems: Prioritizing Investment through Abatement Cost Analysis. NC State Extension Report. URL: https://ncseagrant.ncsu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/The-Economics-of-Onsite-Coastal-Wastewater-Treatment.pdf   Oklahoma Lambert, LH, Lambert, DM, & Ripberger, JT (2022). Public Willingness to Pay for Farmer Adoption of Best Management Practices. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 54(2):224-241. [doi:10.1017/aae.2022.4] Ramanathan, R, Lambert, LH, Nair, MN, Morgan, B, Feuz, R, Mafi, G, & Pfeiffer, M. (2022). Economic Loss, Amount of Beef Discarded, Natural Resources Wastage, and Environmental Impact Due to Beef Discoloration. Meat and Muscle Biology 6(1) Iowa State University [doi:10.22175/mmb.13218] Zou, CB, Lambert, LH, Everett, J., & Will, RE (2022). Response of Surface Runoff and Sediment to the Conversion of a Marginal Grassland to a Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) Bioenergy Feedstock System. Land 11(4). [doi:10.3390/land11040540] Welch, K., Lambert, LH, Lambert, DM, & Kenkel, P. (2022). Flood-induced Disruption of an Inland Waterway Transportation System and Regional Economic Impacts. Water 14(5). [doi:10.3390/w14050753] Na-Yemeh, DY, Legg, TA, & Lambert, LH. Economic Value of a Weather Decision Support Systems for Oklahoma Public Safety Officials. Annals of the American Association of Geographers. [doi:10.1080/24694452.2022.2108747]   Texas Rouhi Rad, Mani, Taro Mieno, and Nicholas Brozović. "The Role of Search Frictions and Trading Ratios in Tradable Permit Markets." Environmental and Resource Economics 82, no. 1 (2022): 101-132. Nix, Heather, and Mani Rouhi Rad. "Water Withdrawal Regulation in South Carolina." (2022).   Wyoming Paige, G., K. Hansen, A. MacKinnon. 2022. Wyoming Demand Management Feasibility Investigation: Stakeholder Engagement Process, July 2019-December 2020.” Bulletin B-1384. Laramie, WY: University of Wyoming Extension.   US Forest Service Heidari, H., Warziniack, T., Brown, T. C., & Arabi, M. (2021). Impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic conditions of US national forests and grasslands. Forests, 12(2), 139. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., Warziniack, T., & Kao, S. C. (2021). Shifts in hydroclimatology of US megaregions in response to climate change. Environmental Research Communications, 3(6), 065002. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., & Warziniack, T. (2021). Effects of climate change on natural-caused fire activity in western US national forests. Atmosphere, 12(8), 981. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., Warziniack, T., & Sharvelle, S. (2021). Effects of urban development patterns on municipal water shortage. Front. Water, 3, 694817. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., & Warziniack, T. (2021). Vulnerability to Water Shortage Under Current and Future Water Supply‐Demand Conditions Across US River Basins. Earth's Future, 9(10), e2021EF002278. Warziniack, T., Arabi, M., Brown, T. C., Froemke, P., Ghosh, R., Rasmussen, S., & Swartzentruber, R. (2022). Projections of freshwater use in the united states under climate change. Earth's Future, 10(2), e2021EF002222.   USDA Economic Research Service Steven Wallander, Hrozencik, R. Aaron, and Marcel Aillery, 2022, Irrigation Organizations – Drought Planning and Response, Economic Brief No. 33, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, January, 30 pp. Hrozencik, R. Aaron and Marcel Aillery, 2021, Trends in U.S. Irrigated Agriculture: Increasing Resilience Under Water Supply Scarcity, Economic Information Bulletin No. 229, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, December, 55 pp. Hrozencik, R. Aaron, Steven Wallander, and Marcel Aillery, 2021, Irrigation Organization – Water Storage and Conveyance Infrastructure, Economic Brief No. 32, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, October, 24 pp. Mieno, T., M. Rouhi Rad, J. Suter, and R. A. Hrozencik, 2021, “The Importance of Well Yield in Groundwater Demand Specification,” Land Economics, 97(3): 672-687,<a href="http://le.uwpress.org/content/early/2021/09/20/wple.97.3.030320-0031R1.abstract"> doi:10.3368/wple.97.3.030320-0031R1</a> Hrozencik, R. A., D. Manning, J. Suter, and C. Goemans, 2021, "Impacts of Block‐Rate Energy Pricing on Groundwater Demand in Irrigated Agriculture," <a href="https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fideas.repec.org%2Fs%2Fwly%2Fajagec.html&data=04%7C01%7C%7C7df017adfb784cd2810408d8f453212d%7Ced5b36e701ee4ebc867ee03cfa0d4697%7C0%7C0%7C637527985160913747%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=TS%2Bd2lUbwek%2F7uiSat9vyBDXP%2BjYDuE3XRFPzDMyhew%3D&reserved=0">American Journal of Agricultural Economics</a>, 104: 404-427.<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ajae.12231"> doi:10.1111/ajae.12231</a>

Impact Statements

Kentucky (Buck) Agricultural stakeholders and the state of California make long-term water quality management decisions and investments in water infrastructure based on expectations of future agricultural water quality. The results of our work on the effect of salinity on crop choice in California has the potential to shape these management and investment decisions. During the recent multi-year drought in California, the State Water Resources Control Board imposed mandatory water restrictions on urban water utilities. The results of our work on the consumer impacts of mandated water restrictions across space will inform on-going water quantity management decisions in California where urban and agricultural water-use and management are interconnected.

Date of Annual Report: 11/24/2023

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 09/28/2023 - 09/29/2023
Period the Report Covers: 10/17/2022 - 09/29/2023

Participants

Participants Attachment:

Participants_W4190_092023.docx

Brief Summary of Minutes

Minutes Attachment:

Minutes from W4190_092023.docx

Accomplishments

Summary of accomplishments across the entire W4190 project period: Across various states, researchers participating in W4190 acquired external federal funding, developed workshops, created new collaborations, and published multiple papers to address the objectives of W4190. Under the objective 1, which is to characterize water resource and human system response to climatic and anthropogenic perturbations, researchers have made significant strides in understanding and addressing the challenges posed by climate change on water resources and agriculture. In California, studies focused on the impact of drought on agricultural practices and the economic value of treated wastewater for irrigation. Colorado researchers evaluated flood risk and behavioral responses to common pool groundwater resource use, while also studying the impact of invasive species on the sagebrush biome. Kansas scholars estimated climate change's impact on water use and aquifer sustainability. In North Carolina, grant funding was secured to prioritize climate adaptation plans for wastewater infrastructure. Research in Oklahoma developed hydrologic models to assess future water availability, while Indiana studies provided insights into management practices against future climate scenarios. Idaho contributed to understanding the economic risks linked to the changing climate. The US Forest Service produced models estimating water yield across the US, aiming to project impacts on water storage and shortages. Studies in various states like Michigan and Mississippi utilized innovative methods to mitigate climate impacts on water use in agriculture, as well as exploring public perceptions of water quality issues. This collective research has spanned from analyzing current water management practices to projecting future conditions and exploring new policy and management strategies to ensure sustainability and resilience in the face of changing climate conditions. Under objective 2, which is to “Quantify water demand and value of water in competing and complementary water uses”, the efforts by researchers in W4190 has provided deeper insights into the management and valuation of water resources in agricultural and natural systems amid climate change. Studies have focused on the value generated by irrigation from major dams, the benefits to smallholders, and the adoption of water conservation methods by farmers and households. Researchers have evaluated the effectiveness of demand management programs and the economic outcomes of groundwater curtailment, alongside estimating agricultural water use and nutrient management across various landscapes. Additionally, the impact of climate change on groundwater withdrawals and the preferences for groundwater management have been quantified, with findings presented to inform policy and stakeholder decisions. In tandem, investigations have explored the economic cost of over-irrigation in response to extreme heat, the role of water availability in coupled human-agricultural-ecosystems, and the response of power plants to drought conditions. The marginal value of irrigation water, the effects of water quality on crop choice, and consumer welfare impacts under conservation standards have also been scrutinized. Groundbreaking work has been done to enhance datasets on water use, integrating variables such as weather, crop choices, and water table elevations, supporting the development of more accurate and comprehensive models for water management. Collectively, this research provides a vital foundation for advancing sustainable water use practices, improving the resilience of farming systems, and shaping water policy to address the challenges of a changing climate. Under objective 3, which is to “Evaluate and compare coordinated/integrated management of water sources and land use practices”, researchers addressed the economic aspects of managed aquifer recharge, assessing its feasibility and exploring the broader economic impacts. The adoption rate of efficient irrigation practices and their interplay with land use, particularly their influence on groundwater depletion, has been one of the key focuses. Additionally, studies have evaluated the use of alternative irrigation practices and their coverage, aiming to inform and optimize resource use in agricultural practices. Parallel efforts have honed in on hydro-economic modeling to predict water use, profitability, and aquifer levels under various management policies, including the impact of insurance policies on groundwater use. Projects have also delved into the effectiveness of Green Infrastructure in urban water management and the economic and ecological trade-offs associated with voluntary water conservation practices in rangelands. Integrated management practices of water sources and land use have been analyzed to gauge their sustainability and regional economic impact which has been crucial in developing strategies for resource conservation, understanding the economic values associated with water use in agriculture, and informing policy for sustainable water management amidst climate change challenges. Finally, under Objective 4, which is to “Evaluate and compare alternative water quantity and quality management strategies and institutions”, Research by researchers of the W4190 has focused on the development and assessment of water management strategies and their economic implications. For example, a regional model has been developed to evaluate groundwater management institutions in relation to Managed Aquifer Recharge, aiming to understand the performance and impact of institutions on aquifer sustainability. Efforts have also been made to integrate hydro-economic modeling with willingness-to-pay estimates to gauge the economic benefits of groundwater retirement programs and to assess the potential for conservation spillovers from retired wells. In addition, activities have been carried out to enhance the efficacy of payment programs for water-based ecosystem services and to address the information needs of watershed-based management programs. Collaborative efforts have involved using principles from collective action theories to understand support for water management plans, examining the impacts of water restrictions, and engaging in outreach to inform municipal water utilities about conservation pricing. Studies using hydro-economic models have explored innovative water transfer schemes to balance agricultural needs with environmental conservation. At the same time, researchers have employed game-theoretic tools to manage water allocation during droughts and have worked on assessing stakeholder interest in water demand management programs to meet interstate water-sharing obligations. These comprehensive research initiatives are aimed at optimizing water use, ensuring the sustainability of water resources, and informing policy development in the context of climate change and growing water scarcity.   Current year's report: Objective 1: Characterize water resource and human system response to climatic and anthropogenic perturbations.   California (Dinar, Mahajan, Yang, Parker, Schwabe, D'odorico) Several working papers and papers in technical journals were published by teams led (or co-led) by Dinar which characterize system responses with respect to the extent and impacts of both current climate changes and anticipated future climate conditions on water resources (e.g., groundwater), and implications for management interventions (Reference list below). Several of these have been presented in professional conferences (Reference list below).   A ‘Choices magazine’ paper by Libecap and Dinar (Reference list below) summarizes and synthesizes the results from a Chicago University Press book on the ability of US agriculture to sustain climate change.   D’Odorico: AI methods were developed to relate groundwater levels in the Central Valley of California to snow cover and precipitation in the Sierra Nevada (May-Lagunes, in press) and infer groundwater response to precipitation trends and declines in snow cover. Similarly, Machine Learning approaches were used to map the expansion of greenhouses for Berry production in Mexico (Hartman et al., 2022). The social impacts of climate change impacts on water resources were explored with respect to migration (Wolde et al., 2023) and urban conflict (Sardo et al., 2023). The coupled dynamics of user behavior and common pool resources were investigated both empirically and theoretically, finding that cooperation emerges in the presence of (a) feedback between resource level and decisions; (b) the presence of shared goals within groups of users (Tu et al., 2020). The impact of climate change on dryland ecosystems and agriculture was analyzed in Wang et al (2022)   Colorado (Goemans, Eiswerth, Suter) Suter Initiated a new cooperative agreement with the USFS to analyze the impacts of wildfire on community drinking water systems. The research will evaluate demographic characteristics of impacted communities as well as wildfire impacts on drinking water quality and costs.   Kentucky (Buck) Conducted research on the measurement of extreme weather events relevant to winter wheat yields in Kentucky.  Studied how projections of extreme weather events under climate change projections may impact wheat yields.  Presented the initial results and value of the analysis to the Kentucky Small Grain Growers’ Association.    Michigan (Asher, Nejadhashemi, O'Neil, Wolfson, Seedang) Nejadhashemi: Through the application of multi-objective optimization techniques, we identified several data-driven strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change and variability on water usage as related to crop production. Asher and O’Neil: Modeled the combined effects of climate and urbanization on stream flows, E. coli formation. Developed an online decision support tool and network of low-cost water stage stream sensors to assist local planners and stakeholders in the Clinton River watershed with managing stormwater discharge and E. coli contamination.  <a href="https://iwr.msu.edu/clintonriver/">https://iwr.msu.edu/clintonriver/</a> Wolfson: Assessed attitudes and perceptions of people on private wells versus those using public water systems concerning PFAS and other contaminants in their drinking water. Statistics are currently being run to understand how awareness translates into risk perception and what barriers exist to well testing.   Mississippi (Quintana) Employing well-level water use data obtained from Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality and enriched with weather and land use data, we estimated the potential for off-season precipitation to offset in-season groundwater pumping in the Delta region of Mississippi that overlies the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. Preliminary results indicate that precipitation pattern shifting towards off-season would alleviate rate of depletion, all else equal, but not sufficiently to overcome increased in-season irrigation pumpage needs. In contrast, greater conservation potential and aquifer sustainability appear ensured with runoff capture, storage and reuse. In another working paper exploiting this dataset, we identify that farmers over-irrigate in days with extreme heat regardless of soil moisture conditions and provide an estimate of the excess groundwater pumped and its economic cost–these costs can be expected to worsen with climate change.   Texas (Rouhi Rad) Was awarded a USDA-NIFA grant with Hrozencik to study the adaptation of irrigators and irrigation organizations. Developed a working paper with Hrozencik (USDA), Uz (UNR) and Li (TAMU) studying the effects of climate change on electricity use for groundwater wells across the US   USDA (Peck, Warziniack, Hrozencik, Potter) Potter and Hrozencik have developed a working paper, which was presented at AAEA, exploring how changes in snowpack translate into agricultural outcomes at the county level.  This work highlights the importance of non-local weather in determining the profitability and climate resilience of western agriculture.     Warziniack and colleagues at the US Forest Service recently released the Resource Planning Act Assessment, a report on the status and trends of the nation’s renewable natural resources. The Water Assessment, led by Warziniack, includes projections of water use, supply, and shortage based on climate and socioeconomic futures. The report can be found here <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/inventory/rpaa/2020">https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/inventory/rpaa/2020</a>.   Wyoming (Hansen) Hansen (along with other UW researchers, Extension professionals, and community college faculty) conducted scenario planning focus groups with rural agricultural community members to determine impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on local communities and their likely responses.   Hansen and UW researcher/Extension colleagues conducted focus groups of Technical Service Providers (personnel from UW Extension, conservation districts, FSA, NRCS, State Engineer’s Office, BLM, etc.) to assess their current capacity for assisting the Wyoming agricultural community deal with weather/climate variability; and to identify knowledge/resource gaps.   Hansen submitted a grant to USDA-NIFA (key partners: Northern Plains Climate Hub, Wyoming State Climate Office, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System, NOAA Western Watershed Assessment) to facilitate improved agricultural decision-making around weather and climate in Wyoming.   Objective 2: Quantify water demand and value of water in competing and complementary water uses.   California (Dinar, Mahajan, Parker, Schwabe, Nemati, D'odorico) In a series of research work in Africa, Dinar co-advised 3 PhD students from the University of Cape Town and produced works, published as working papers, and presented in professional conferences. These works include adoption of water conservation methods by farmers, and by households (Reference list below).   The value generated by irrigation in agriculture was estimated for the commend areas of major irrigation dams built in Africa this century for different crop distribution scenarios. The extent to which smallholders benefit from such irrigation schemes was also evaluated (Tatlhego et al., 2022).   Colorado (Goemans, Suter, Eiswerth) (Goemans) Completed and published paper exploring heterogeneity in the effectiveness of social comparisons demand management programs.   (Suter) Worked with groundwater irrigators and state representatives in the Republican River Basin to write state-level legislation that appropriates funding for a study of the impact of mandated groundwater curtailment on regional economic outcomes.    Idaho (Maas): <ul> <li>Estimated total agricultural water use for all groundwater management areas in the East Snake Plain Aquifer.</li> <li>Estimated alignment of nutrient (NPK) imbalance between cropland requirements and Dairy CAFOs manure production across southern Idaho.</li> </ul>   Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Published a paper that estimates how climate change is projected to change groundwater withdrawals in Kansas. Gave a keynote speech for Kansas Department of Agriculture on the value of groundwater and producer preferences for groundwater management.   Gave a track session presentation for the AAEA Annual Meeting on the land market value of water right allocations and seniority status.   Kentucky (Buck) Conducted research on water availability the value of water for coupled human-agricultural-natural systems in the context of land-use and residential water demand.  Supported a graduate student exchange to the University of California, Riverside.  measurement of extreme weather events relevant to winter wheat yields in Kentucky.  Studied how projections of extreme weather events under climate change projections may impact wheat yields.  Presented the initial results and value of the analysis to the Kentucky Small Grain Growers’ Association.    Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell) Employing well-level water use data, we estimate the excess groundwater pumped and the economic cost of farmers in the Delta region of Mississippi who attempt to cope with extreme heat by applying excess irrigation. Lower-bound estimates indicate that over half-million acre-feet of groundwater is being misused for this purpose with an approximate $25 million of excess pumping costs across the Delta.     North Carolina (Edwards) Worked with colleagues at Duke University and Clemson University to publish a paper on teaching how to teach about the economics of urban water use and pricing. Created teaching materials for inclusion with the article.   Built a dataset to understand the US power plant response to drought and the interaction of water rights and market/non-market electricity grid operating regions. Oklahoma (Lambert)   <ul> <li>Completed research on the marginal value of irrigation water in the Oklahoma Panhandle region. Under development of a working paper.</li> <li>Interviewed farmers and stakeholders in southwest Oklahoma to quantify drought severity and impacts on Oklahoma’s rural communities. Also worked with undergraduate rural scholars on developing a travel cost method study on Lake Lugert of Southwest Oklahoma.</li> </ul>   Tennessee (Perez Quesada)   Perez-Quesada published a paper (with Nathan Hendricks) focusing on the economic cost of groundwater depletion in the High Plains Aquifer. This work estimates how changes in groundwater stocks affect the returns to agricultural land in the High Plains Aquifer and avoids bias from feedback effects by exploiting hydrologic variation in predevelopment saturated thickness.   Perez-Quesada has developed a working paper (with Nathan Hendricks), which was presented at UCOWR, exploring how observed differences in the stock of groundwater affect corn and wheat production in the High Plains Aquifer. To account for the endogeneity of groundwater stock, this study exploits variation in current saturated thickness due to variation in pre-development saturated thickness.     USDA (Warziniack, Hrozencik, Potter) Potter and Hrozencik published an ERS report focusing on the quantities of water delivered by irrigation organizations in the U.S. This report leverages data from the 2019 Survey of Irrigation Organizations to detail regional surface water demand by sector and how that demand compared to total freshwater availability.   Warziniack and colleagues at the US Forest Service recently published projections of freshwater use throughout the United States based on climate and socioeconomic futures. The work was published in Earth’s Future.   Wyoming (Hansen) As part of Wyoming’s Track 1 EPSCoR project on water and climate change, Hansen and an MS student conducted a survey of anglers to identify their preferences for fishing experiences under alternative climate scenarios in the Snake River headwaters.   Objective 3: Evaluate and compare coordinated/integrated management of water sources and land use practices.   California (Dinar, Mahajan, Yang, Parker, Schwabe, Nemati, D'odorico) Dinar led (co-led) two studies in California and in Spain addressing negative land subsidence consequences of groundwater over-pumping. Presentations have been made in professional conferences (Reference list below) and papers have been submitted.   (D’Odorico) A new study (Ricciardi et al., 2022) investigated the hydrological impacts of afforestation projects for climate change mitigation worldwide. It was found that in most areas suitable for tree growth afforestation would enhance water scarcity in adjacent or downstream agricultural regions as a result of decreasing streamflow or groundwater recharge.   Colorado (Suter, Eiswerth, Kroll) (Suter) Worked on a USDA-NIFA funded project with Mani Rouhi Rad (Texas A&M) to evaluate the costs of salinity in Colorado’s Lower Arkansas Basin and the benefits associated with coordinated salinity management using an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework.   Michigan (Asher, Srivastava, O'Neil, Wolfson, Sears) (Sears) Leading project on valuing irrigation in Michigan, estimating land use changes given changes in irrigation management policies. Three related outreach presentations to agricultural stakeholders in Michigan. Leading two projects on agricultural production changes under declining water quality (salinity) conditions in California. Co-PI on NASA project in Serbia on agricultural land use changes based on soil moisture projections under climate change scenarios (2030-2050).     Oklahoma (Mirchi, Lambert) (Lambert) <ul> <li>Published research on Oklahoma grower competition in corn production concerning irrigation and fertilizer application.</li> <li>Published research on landowners management for wildlife habitat.</li> <li>Supported graduate student research and thesis on dryland double cropping systems risk analysis.</li> <li>Submitted two grant proposals to USGS: 1) Understanding the dynamics of water storage in farm ponds and their effects on streamflow in semi-arid regions; 2) Statues and outlook of the southern great plains water economy.</li> <li>Submitted AFRI-SAS proposal on ‘Satellite to sustainable water management-strategizing transitions from irrigated to rainfed production and promoting peer-led adaptation”</li> </ul> Rhode Island (Guilfoos) Completed surveys on J. Suter (Colorado) and K. Schoengold (Nebraska) evaluating mental stress on preferences for groundwater management.  This study led to a recent publication which connects salience to prices and water availability to changes in support for groundwater management.    Texas (Rouhi Rad, Sheng) (Rouhi Rad): Developed a hydro-salinity-economic model to study the management of salinity in the Lower Arkansas River Valley of Colorado with Suter (Colorado) A working paper was developed with a MS student that shows that “Water Scarcity Exacerbates the Negative Effects of Salinity on Irrigated Agriculture.”   Objective 4: Evaluate and compare alternative water quantity and quality management strategies and institutions.   California (Dinar, Mahajan, Parker, Schwabe, Nemati) Dinar led a paper on water quality management in the Central Valley of California, as part of a special issue: “Decision Support Tools for Water Quality Management” that was co-guest-edited by several colleagues. The special issue was also published as a book (Reference list below).   Dinar (in a project led by Nemati and with a postdoc–Crespo) completed the design and application of a hydro-economic model for the entire Colorado river basin, published a working paper (Reference list below), presented it in several conferences (Reference list below), and submitted a proposal to NIFA for funding of policy runs and a user friendly interface.   Dinar co-advised a PhD student from South Africa and published one of the PhD papers on regulation of nonpoint pollution (Reference list below).   Colorado (Goemans, Suter, Eiswerth, Kroll) (Goemans) Modified existing water allocation model (one based on the South Platte and one pure simulation) to explore the relative effectiveness of land use (where development occurs, intensity of use, and return flow percent) and demand management policies under a range of climate change scenarios. Co-authored two working papers related to this work.   (Suter) Conducted analysis with C. Goemans and Mani Rouhi Rad that uses a hydro-economic model to estimate the economic tradeoffs associated with implementing an incremental subsidy for groundwater conservation relative to groundwater rights retirement for a study area in Finney County, KS.     Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Published a paper that estimates how farmers adapted to a restriction in water use where the stringency of the restriction differed by water right seniority. Gave an outreach presentation that shared results on producer preferences for groundwater management.   Awarded grant from National Science Foundation to identify the barriers to adoption of microbial soil amendments for improved water availability in agriculturally relevant soils.    Michigan (Asher, Ghane, O'Neil, Wolfson) (Ghane) published five papers to quantify water quality at the edge of the field. Developed a new decision-support tool (drainage coefficient calculator) that estimates the water capacity of a subsurface drainage system. Michigan offered one 3-day Drainage Workshop and one drainage field day in 2022. Wrote one new Extension bulletin to quantify the water-quality benefit of conservation practices at the edge of the field.   (Asher and Wolfson) Conducted floating wetland research to determine the effectiveness of various plants at removing phosphorus from agricultural tile drains. Held two field demonstrations, generated two promotional videos, presented at four conferences, generated a final report, and are working on a publication.   (Asher and O’Neil) Modeled land cover changes and agricultural BMPs on groundwater recharge with the goal of improving fish habitat in the Maple River watershed. Developed an online tool to estimate recharge and enroll producers in a Regional Conservation Partnership program to cost-share BMP implementation and then quantified the groundwater recharge benefit through the tool.     Mississippi (Quintana) Research on the benefits of irrigation and pluvial runoff capture and re-use is ongoing. A model is being enriched to account for the positive externalities associated with sediment and nutrient retention that result from tailwater recovery, storage and reuse. Preliminary results indicate that between 30 and 150 million tons (US) of nitrogen can be retained on the fields over the life of the aquifer under the sustainable level of on-farm runoff capture and storage.   Nebraska (Mittelstet, Schoengold) (Schoengold) Completed two surveys to measure preferences for ecosystem services from ag conservation incentives program. One of the attributes included is water quality improvements. Respondents were the public for the first survey and farmers for the second survey. Results from the public survey were presented at AAEA and at two invited seminars. Results show that respondents value improvements in water quality (measured in WTP), and that the value is higher for a program in one’s own state versus another state. Results from the farmer survey were presented by Schoengold’s PhD student at WAEA and AAEA and show that farmers don’t want to pay for ag conservation programs.   (Brozovic) Along with DWFI researcher R. Rimŝaitė, Brozovic published a report that explains the rules governing groundwater transfers for seven of Nebraska’s Natural Resources Districts. Groundwater trading rules are locally determined, and the report provides a comprehensive and consistent summary of those rules for a large portion of the Nebraska section of the High Plains Aquifer.     North Carolina (Edwards) Worked with researchers at Kansas State (Sampson and Hendricks) to improve understanding of the role of appropriative water rights to groundwater in addressing common pool resource problems. Project created a new dataset of linked water right data and land value data in Kansas.   Worked with researchers at San Diego State University and Arizona State University to model dust pollutant effects of dried lakebed playa as a result of agricultural water diversions in the Salton Sea.   Tennessee (Perez Quesada) Perez-Quesada has developed a working paper (with Nathan Hendricks) exploring the factors that influence farmers preferred reductions in groundwater use through a water conservation program implemented by a Groundwater Management District in Kansas. This study uses unique data obtained from consequential stated preference surveys on preferences of farmers for mandatory reductions in water use through the establishment of a LEMA.   Texas (Rouhi Rad, Sheng) (Rouhi Rad): Developed a working paper studying the evolution of surface water rights in the southeastern US     USDA (Peck, Warziniack, Hrozencik, Potter) Hrozencik and Potter published an ERS report focusing on institutions of groundwater management in the U.S. This report uses data from the 2019 Survey of Irrigation Organizations to describe how these entities manage groundwater resources and the resource concerns informing their management decisions.   Warziniack and colleagues at the US Forest Service participated in drafting the National Strategy for Environmental Economic Statistics. The USFS leads the development of forest accounts, including an assessment of water provided by forests throughout the United States. During the past year, a draft implementation plan was completed and pilot accounts have begun.   Wyoming (Hansen) Hansen has been working with research, extension, and stakeholder partners from across the western U.S.(including other W4190 members)  to form the Western Water Network, whose mission is to advance collaborative, proactive, science-based water decision-making that supports dynamic human and natural systems in the West. The WWN held a Workshop in June 2023 (with UCOWR annual meeting). The workshop resulted in a Vision Paper that identifies ways that land-grant and agency researchers and extension can act to advance water security in the western United States and a case study publication on network formation. At the request of a congressional aide, the WWN provided input on potential federal legislation related to the 2023 Farm Bill.   Hansen and two MS students began work examining agricultural and municipal responses to changes in water supply availability in the Wyoming portion of the Colorado River Basin, as part of an assessment (regional economic impacts, value of storage) of voluntary conservation/water transfers and mandatory cutbacks in the Wyoming portion of the Colorado River Basin.

Publications

Arkansas (Kovacs)   California (Dinar, Mahajan, Yang, Parker, Schwabe, Nemati, D'odorico) Peer-reviewed and Policy Publications: Quinn, W. T. N., A. Dinar, I. Kan and V. K. Sridharan (Eds.), Decision Support Tools for Water Quality Management. MDPI (2023), https://www.mdpi.com/books/book/7403-decision-support-tools-for-water-quality-management.    Libecap, G. and A. Dinar, American Agriculture Can Adapt to Climate Change-Induced Water Extremes. Choices, Volume 38, Quarter 4.   Apio, A. T., D. R. Thiam and A. Dinar, Farming Under Drought: An Analysis of the Factors Influencing Farmers' Multiple Adoption of Water Conservation Practices to Mitigate Farm-level Water Scarcity. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, (Accepted for publication June 14, 2023).   Aina, I., D. Thiam and A. Dinar, 2023. Economics of Household Preferences for Water-Saving Technologies in Urban South Africa. Journal of Environmental Management, Volume 339, article 117953, (Accepted for publication April 14, 2023). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117953.    Wang, Z., M. Nemati, J. Wang, and A. Dinar, 2023. Does Farm Size Matter for Participation in a Land Fallowing Policy? Evidence from China. Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy (Accepted for Publication January 18, 2023). https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2023.2171494.    Nemati, M, and A. Dinar, 2023. Teaching Principles of Water Economics to Non-Economists: Lessons from California. Applied Economics Teaching Resources (AETR), 5(2):1-13, (Accepted for Publication January 9, 2023).   Aina, I., D. Thiam and A. Dinar, 2023. Substitution of Piped Water and Self-supplied Groundwater: The case of residential water in South Africa. Utilities Policy, 80:101480 (Ac-cepted for Publication December 21, 2022). May Lagunes, G., V. Chau, E. Ellestad, L. Greengard, P. D’Odorico, P. Vahabi, A. Todeschini, M. Girotto,“Forecasting Groundwater Levels Using Machine Learning Methods: The Case of California’s Central Valley”, J. Hydrol., in Press.   Wolde S.G., P. D’Odorico, and M.C. Rulli (2023). “Environmental drivers of human migration in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Global Sustainability, y 6, e9, 1–33. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2023.5">https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2023.5</a>.   Sardo, M., I. Epifani, P. D’Odorico, N. Galli, and M.C. Rulli (2023). “Exploring the water-food nexus reveals the interlinkages with urban human conflicts in Central America”, Nature Water,  doi 10.1038/s44221-023-00053-0.   Tu, C., P. D’Odorico, Z. Li, S. Suweis (2023). “The emergence of cooperation from shared goals in the governance of common pool resources”, Nature Sustainability,  <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-01008-1">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-01008-1</a>.   Hartman, S., M. Farfan, J. Hoogesteger, P. D’Odorico (2022), “Mapping the widespread expansion of berry greenhouses onto Mexico’s ejido lands”, Environmental Research Letters, 17 (2022) 115004, doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9ac8.   Wang, L., W. Jiao, N. MacBean, M.C. Rulli, S. Manzoni, G. Vico, and P. D’Odorico (2022), “Dryland productivity under a changing climate”, Nature Climate Change, Nature Climate Change, 12, 981–994 (2022). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01499-y">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01499-y</a>.   Beltran- Peña, A. and P. D’Odorico (2022). “Future Food Security in Africa under Climate Change”, Earth’s Future, 10, e2022EF002651, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002651.   Ricciardi, L., P. D’Odorico, N. Galli, D.D. Chiarelli, M.C. Rulli (2022). “Hydrological implications of large-scale afforestation in tropical biomes for climate change mitigation”. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 377: 20210391. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0391">https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0391</a>.   Tatlhego, M., D.D. Chiarelli, M.C. Rulli, P. D’Odorico (2022). “The value generated by irrigation in the command areas of new agricultural dams in Africa “, Agric. Water. Management., 264, 107517, doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107517.   Working Papers: Divya Prakash, Mehdi Nemati, Ariel Dinar, Scott MacKenzie, Cory Struthers, Matthew S. Shugart, Advancements to The Ricardian Analysis in the Past Quarter of the Century. UCR SPP Working Paper Series, February 2023 WP#23-01.  (https://live-ucr-spp.pantheonsite.io/sites/default/files/2023-03/02282023_spp-wp_advancements-to-the-ricardian-analysis.pdf).    Crespo, D. M. Nemati, A. Dinar, Z. Frankel, and N. Halberg, 2023 Hydro-Economic Analy-sis of the Colorado River Basin: A Comprehensive Framework for Water Management. UCR SPP Working Paper Series, February 2023  (WP#23-02. https://live-ucr-spp.pantheonsite.io/sites/default/files/2023-09/Hydro-Economic%20Analysis%20of%20the%20Colorado%20River%20Basin_0.pdf.)   Presentations: Apio, A.  (Presenter) T., D. R. Thiam, A. Dinar, and J. Meyerhoff. Farmers’ willingness to accept compensation to control agricultural nonpoint source pollution in the Limpopo River Basin of South Africa. Paper presented at the African Economic Conference, Balaclava, Mauritius, 9-11 December 2022.   Crespo, D. (Presenter), M. Nemati, A. Dinar, Z. Frankel, and N. Halberg, Policies to Achieve Sustainability in the Colorado River Basin under Climate Change Conditions and Growing Demand: A Hydro-economic Analysis. Paper presented at the EGU-General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria & Online, 23–28 April 2023.   Crespo, D. (Presenter), M. Nemati, A. Dinar, Z. Frankel, and N. Halberg, Policies to Achieve Sustainability in the Colorado River Basin under Climate Change Conditions and Growing Demand: A Hydro-economic Analysis. Paper presented at the 2023 UCOWR/NIWR Annual Water Resources Conference, Fort Collins, Colorado, 12-14 June, 2023.   Wang (Presenter), Z., M. Nemati, Jinxia Wang, A. Dinar, Seasonal Land Fallowing Policy as a Strategy for Sustainable Management of Groundwater: Evidence from China. Poster presented at the 2023 UCOWR/NIWR Annual Water Resources Conference, Fort Collins, Colorado, 12-14 June, 2023.   Esteban, E. (Presenter), A. Dinar, E. Calvo, J. Calatrava, J. Albiac, G. Herrera, P. Teatini, R. Tomás, Y. Li, and P. Ezquerro. Modeling the Optimal Management of Land Subsidence Due to Aquifer Overexploitation. Paper presented at the 2023 EAERE Conference, Nicosia, Cyprus, June 27 – 30, 2023. Crespo, D. (Presenter), M. Nemati, A. Dinar, Z. Frankel, and N. Halberg, Policies to Achieve Sustainability in the Colorado River Basin under Climate Change Conditions and Growing Demand: A Hydro-economic Analysis. Poster presented at the 2023 AAEA Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, July 23-25, 2023.   Aina, I. (Presenter), D. Thiam and A. Dinar, Hydro-economic Modelling of irrigated Agriculture Water Use: Evidence from an inter-basin transfer scheme in Southern Africa.” Paper presented at the 2023 AAEA Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, July 23-25, 2023.   Nemati, M. (Presenter), M. Sneed and A. Dinar, Impact of Land Subsidence on Housing Sales Value: Evidence from California. Paper presented at the 2023 Annual Meeting of The Association of Environmental & Engineering Geologists, Portland Oregon, September 20-22, 2023. Colorado (Goemans, Suter, Eiswerth, Kroll)   Lurbé, S., Burkhardt, J., Goemans, C., Manning, D., & Hans, L. (2023). Further evidence on social comparison and residential water use. Water Resources and Economics, 41, 100214.   Gharib, A. A., Blumberg, J., Manning, D. T., Goemans, C., & Arabi, M. (2023). Assessment of vulnerability to water shortage in semi-arid river basins: The value of demand reduction and storage capacity. Science of The Total Environment, 871, 161964.   Blumberg, J., Goemans, C. and Manning, D. (2022) “Perceived Water Scarcity and Irrigation Technology Adoption.” American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change, ed. Gary D. Libecap and Ariel Dinar. University of Chicago Press. URL: <a href="http://www.nber.org/chapters/c14698">http://www.nber.org/chapters/c14698</a> (forthcoming) Suter, J.F., T. Guilfoos, K. Schoengold. 2023. Seasons, Stress, Salience, and Support for Cooperative Groundwater Management. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. Hrozencik, A., J.F. Suter, P.J. Ferraro, N. Hendricks. 2023. Social Comparisons and Groundwater Use: Evidence from Colorado and Kansas. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.   Meiselman, B.S., C. Weigel, P.J. Ferraro, M. Masters, K.D. Messer, O.M. Savchenko, and J.F. Suter. 2022. Lottery Incentives and Resource Management: Evidence from the Agricultural Data Reporting Incentive Program (AgDRIP). Environmental and Resource Economics. 82(4), 847-867.   Ahsanuzzaman, A., L.H. Palm-Forster, and J.F. Suter. 2022. Experimental Evidence of Common Pool Resource Use in the Presence of Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 194, 139-160.     Idaho (Maas) Burton, K., Maas, A., & Lee, K. (2022). A Case Study in Contamination: Persistent Home Value Losses Associated with the Elk River Spill. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 47(3), 697-712.   Adhikari, K., Maas, A., & Trujillo-Barrera, A. (2023). Revisiting the effect of recreational marijuana on traffic fatalities. International Journal of Drug Policy, 115, 104000.     Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) Earnhart, D. and N.P. Hendricks. 2023. “Adapting to Water Restrictions: Intensive versus Extensive Adaptation over Time Differentiated by Water Right Seniority.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 105(5): 1458-1490. Obembe, Oladipo, Nathan P. Hendricks, and Krishna Jagadish. 2023. “Changes in Groundwater Irrigation Withdrawals Due to Climate Change in Kansas.” Environmental Research Letters 18: 094041. Presentations Hendricks, N.P. “Preferences for Groundwater Management: A Survey of Kansas Irrigators” Governor’s Conference on the Future of Water in Kansas, Manhattan, KS, November 17, 2022. Hendricks, N.P. “The Value of Water in Kansas” Kansas Ag Growth Summit. Kansas Department of Agriculture, Manhattan, KS, August 17, 2023. Edwards, E., N.P. Hendricks, and G.S. Sampson. “Agricultural Land Market Value of Prior Appropriation Water Rights.” Track Session Presentation, 2023 AAEA Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C. July 23 – 25.   Michigan (Asher, Srivastava, Nejadhashemi, Ghane, O'Neil, Wolfson, Sears, Seedang) <ol> <li>B. Dialameh, E. Ghane. 2023. Investigation of phosphorus transport dynamics using high-frequency monitoring at a subsurface-drained field in the Western Lake Erie Basin. Journal of the Great Lakes Research. .<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2023.04.005"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2023.04.005</a></li> <li>Y. AbdalAal, E. Ghane. 2023. Comparison of newly proposed and existing design criteria for saturated buffers. Journal of the ASABE. 66, 431-440.<a href="https://doi.org/10.13031/ja.15246"> https://doi.org/10.13031/ja.15246</a></li> <li>G.W. Feyereisen, E. Ghane, T. Schumacher, M. Williams, B. Dalzell. 2023. Can woodchip bioreactors be used at a catchment scale? Nitrate performance and sediment considerations. Journal of the ASABE. 66, 367-379.<a href="https://doi.org/10.13031/ja.15496"> https://doi.org/10.13031/ja.15496</a></li> <li>G.W. Feyereisen, H. Wang, P. Wang, E.L. Anderson, J. Jang, E. Ghane, J.A. Coulter, C.J. Rosen, M.J. Sadowsky, S. Ishii. 2023. Carbon supplementation and bioaugmentation to improve denitrifying woodchip bioreactor performance under cold conditions. Ecological Engineering. 191, 106920.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2023.106920"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2023.106920</a></li> <li>M.S.B. Shokrana, E. Ghane, Z. Qi. 2023. Calibration and validation of RZWQM2-P model to simulate phosphorus loss in a clay loam soil in Michigan. Journal of the ASABE. 65(6), 1-12.<a href="https://doi.org/10.13031/ja.15283"> https://doi.org/10.13031/ja.15283</a></li> <li>* Kropp, I., A. P. Nejadhashemi, P. Jha, J. S. Hernandez-Suarez, 2022. Agricultural innovization: An optimization-driven solution for sustainable agricultural intensification in Michigan, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 199: 107143. </li> <li>Chikafa, M., A. P. Nejadhashemi, K. Moller, H. Razavi, J.C. Bizimana. 2023. Multidimensional Evaluation of the Impacts of Agricultural Interventions to Achieve Food Security in Malawi. Food and Energy Security, 00:e486, 1-17.</li> <li>Steinman, A.D.; Uzarski, D.; Lusch, D.; Miller, C; Doran, P.J; Zimnicki, T.; Chu, P.; Allan, J.; Asher, J.; Bratton, J.; Carpenter, D.; Dempsey, D.; Drummond, C.; Esch, J.; Garwood, A.; Harrison, A.; Lemke, L.D.; Nicholas, J.; Ogilvie, W.; O’Leary, B.; Sachs, P.; Seelbach, P.; Seidel, T.; Suchy, A., and Yellich, J. Groundwater in Crisis? Addressing Groundwater Challenges in Michigan as a template for the Great Lakes. Sustainability 2022, 14(5), 3008;. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14053008. </li> <li>Thomas, M.; Asher, J. O’Neil, G.; Allan, J. 2022. A Decision Support Tool for Measuring and Tracking the Social Benefits of Water Resources in Michigan Coastal Communities. Journal of Great Lakes Research, Volume 48, Issue 6, 2022, Pages 1401-1416, ISSN 0380-1330, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2022.07.005. </li> </ol>   Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell, Paz)   Publications: Maher, A.T., Quintana-Ashwell, N.E., Tanaka, J.A., Ritten, J.P. and Maczko, K.A., 2023. Financial barriers and opportunities for conservation adoption on US rangelands: A region-wide, ranch-level economic assessment of NRCS-sponsored Greater Sage-grouse habitat conservation programs. Journal of Environmental Management, 329, p.116420.   Nelson, A.M., Quintana Ashwell, N.E., Delhom, C.D. and Gholson, D.M., 2022. Leveraging Big Data to Preserve the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer: A Blueprint for the National Center for Alluvial Aquifer Research. Land, 11(11), p.1925.   Quintana-Ashwell, N.E. and Gholson, D.M., 2022. Optimal Management of Irrigation Water from Aquifer and Surface sources. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 54(3), pp.496-514.   Quintana-Ashwell, N., Gholson, D., Kaur, G., Singh, G., Massey, J., Krutz, L.J., Henry, C.G., Cooke III, T., Reba, M. and Locke, M.A., 2022. Irrigation water management tools and alternative irrigation sources trends and perceptions by farmers from the delta regions of the lower Mississippi River basin in South Central USA. Agronomy, 12(4), p.894.   Russell, D., Singh, G., Quintana-Ashwell, N., Kaur, G., Gholson, D., Krutz, L.J. and Nelson, K.A., 2023. Cover crops and furrow irrigation impacts on soybean production in sub-humid climate. Agricultural Water Management, 284, p.108347.   Sehgal, A., Singh, G., Quintana, N., Kaur, G., Ebelhar, W., Nelson, K.A. and Dhillon, J., 2023. Long-term crop rotation affects crop yield and economic returns in humid subtropical climate. Field Crops Research, 298, p.108952.   Singh, B., Kaur, G., Quintana-Ashwell, N.E., Singh, G., Lo, T.H. and Nelson, K.A., 2023. Row spacing and irrigation management affect soybean yield, water use efficiency and economics. Agricultural Water Management, 277, p.108087.   Presentations: Roberts, C., Gholson, D.M., Locke, M.A., Pieralisi, B., Crow, W., Spencer, D. and Quintana-Ashwell, N., 2023, October. Cover Crops Affect in-Season Soil Moisture in Cotton. In ASA, CSSA, SSSA International Annual Meeting. ASA-CSSA-SSSA. Nebraska (Mittelstet, Schoengold, Brozovic)   Papers: Balasubramanya, S., Brozović, N., Fishman, R., Lele, S., & Wang, J. (2022). Managing irrigation under increasing water scarcity. Agricultural Economics, 53(6), 976-984.   Garrick, D., Balasubramanya, S., Beresford, M., Wutich, A., Gilson, G. G., Jorgensen, I., ... & Mendoza, K. V. (2023). A systems perspective on water markets: barriers, bright spots, and building blocks for the next generation. Environmental Research Letters, 18(3), 031001.   Rim&scaron;aitė, R., & Brozović, N. (2023). Groundwater Development Paths in the US High Plains. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Environmental Science.   Rim&scaron;aitė, R., & Brozović, N. (2023). Groundwater Transfers in Nebraska. Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute Report.   Suter, J., Guilfoos, T., & Schoengold, K. (2023). Seasons, stress, salience, and support for cooperative groundwater management. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.   Presentations:   Essakkat, K., & Schoengold, K. (2023). Producers’ Willingness-to-Pay for Policy-Driven Soil Health Enhancement: A Comparative Analysis of Location Preferences. WAEA Annual Conference, Whistler, BC, Canada, July 17-19.   Essakkat, K., & Schoengold, K. (2023). How much are producers willing to pay for ecosystem services that promote soil health?. AAEA Annual Conference. Washington, D.C. July 23 – 25.   Melkani, A., Mieno, T., Hrozencik, R. A., Rimsaite, R., Brozovic, N., & Kakimoto, S. (2023). Economic Impact of Groundwater Regulation in Nebraska: A Hedonic Price Analysis. AAEA Annual Conference. Washington, D.C. July 23 – 25.     North Carolina (Edwards) Papers: <ul> <li>Sanchez, L., Edwards, E.C., Leonard, B. Paper Water, Wet Water, and the Recognition of Indigenous Property Rights. In press at Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C., Hassett, A., Sutherland, S.A. Teaching Elasticity of Demand and Marginal Analysis Using Water Utility Pricing. In press at Applied Economics Teaching Resources.</li> </ul>   Presentations: <ul> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2023. Environmental Justice in Agriculture-to-Urban Water Transfers. Conference on Economics of Inequity in Agricultural, Food, and Environmental Systems, Minneapolis, MN, May 2023.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2023. Left in the Dust? Environmental and Labor Effects of Rural-Urban Water Sales. Colorado School of Mines Economics Department Seminar. April 2023.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2023. Left in the Dust? Environmental and Labor Effects of Rural-Urban Water Sales. San Diego State University Economics Department Seminar. April 2023.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2023. Left in the Dust? Environmental and Labor Effects of Rural-Urban Water Sales. University of California San Diego Economics Department Seminar. April 2023.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2023. Creating American Farmland: Institutional Evolution and the Development of Agricultural Drainage. Iowa State University Department of Economics Seminar. January 2023.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2023. Left in the Dust? Environmental and Labor Effects of Rural-Urban Water Sales. University of California Davis Ag and Resource Economics Department Seminar. January 2023.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2023. Paper Water, Wet Water, and the Recognition of Indigenous Property Rights. University of Wyoming Department of Economics Seminar. January 2023.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2022. Left in the Dust? Environmental and Labor Effects of Rural-Urban Water Sales. University of Rhode Island Environmental and Resource Economics Department Seminar, November 2022.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. and Ferraro, G. 2023. The potential for coordination within SWISLR and agricultural research. SWISLR Webinar, February 2023.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. The Economics of Water Management: Coordination in Irrigation and Drainage. 2022 Mid-Atlantic Crop Management School. November 2022.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2022. The Economic Impact of North Carolina’s Commercial Fishing Industry. North Carolina Coastal Conference. November 2022.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2022. Water Conservation Pricing, Basics and Emerging Issues. Western North Carolina Water Quality Conference. October 2022.</li> <li>Edwards, E.C. 2022. Economic Issues in Agriculture and the Environment. NC Extension Annual Conference. October 2022.</li> </ul>     Oklahoma (Mirchi, Lambert, Alian)   (Lambert) Publications Lambert, LH, HE Shear, & J Warren (2023). Grower Production and Economic Efficiency in Semi-Arid Southern Great Plains. Journal of ASFMRA. https://www.asfmra.org/resources/asfmra-journal/2023journal    Na-Yemeh, DY, TA Legg*, & LH Lambert (2023). Economic Value of a Weather Decision Support Systems for Oklahoma Public Safety Officials. Annals of the American Association of Geographers 113(2):549-565.   Welch, K, LH Lambert, DM Lambert, & D Shideler. (2023). Multi-State Economic Contribution and Multi-Congressional District Impact Analysis of the Inland Waterway Disruption. Journal of Case Studies on Transport Policy 13:101043. doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2023.101043   Westbrook, L, DM Lambert, AD Hagerman, LH Lambert, EA DeVuyst, & CA Maples. (2023). Should Producers of Rainfed Wheat Enroll in Agricultural Risk Coverage or Price Loss Coverage? Choice 38:4. https://www.choicesmagazine.org/UserFiles/file/cmsarticle_867.pdf   Mishra, B, J Omkar, W Rodney, B Chapagain, & LH Lambert (2023). Intentions of Landowners towards Active Management of Ecosystem for Deer Habitat. Environmental Management 72: 529-539.     Presentations:  Yao, YQ, Lambert, LH, Levers, L. (2023). “Dynamic Hydro-economic Optimization Model for Sustainable Agricultural Water Management: A Case Study of Oklahoma Panhandle Region”. The University Council on Water Resources (UCOWR), June 13-15, Fort Collins, CO.   Welch, KL, Lambert, DM, Hagerman, A, Krueger E., Lambert, LH, Ochsner, T, & Weckler, P. (2023). “Quantifying Drought Impacts on Oklahoma’s Rural Communities.” Western Agricultural Economics Association (WAEA) Annual Meeting, July 18-20, Whistler, BC.    Boateng, M, LH Lambert, DM Lambert, & C Jones (2023). “Are Rainfed Double Cropping Systems Preferred by Risk-Averse Producers?” Selected paper. Southern Agricultural Economic Association (SAEA), February 5-7, Oklahoma City, OK.      Rhode Island (Guilfoos)   Suter, J., Guilfoos, T., & Schoengold, K. (2023). Seasons, stress, salience, and support for cooperative groundwater management. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.     Texas (Wilcox, Rouhi Rad, Sheng)   (Rouhi Rad): Nix, H.B. and Rad, M.R., 2023. An Introduction to Consumptive Use of Water in South Carolina. Journal of South Carolina Water Resources, 9(1), p.10.   Hrozencik, R.A., Rouhi Rad, M. and Uz, D., 2023. Electricity Demand by the Irrigated Sector in Response to Climatic Shocks.   Bahrami, S., Rouhi Rad, M. and Nayga, R.M., 2023. Saving the Colorado River Through Conservation Payments to Irrigated Agriculture.       USDA (Peck, Warziniack, Hrozencik, Potter) Hrozencik, R. A., Suter, J. F., Ferraro, P. J., & Hendricks, N. (2022). Social comparisons and groundwater use: Evidence from Colorado and Kansas. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.   Hrozencik, A., Gardner, G., Potter, N., & Wallander, S. (2023). Irrigation Organizations: Groundwater Management. USDA, Economic Research Service. EB-34   Potter, N., Hrozencik, A., & Wallander, S. (2023). Irrigation Organizations: Water Inflows and Outflows. USDA, Economic Research Service. EB-34   Caldwell, P. V., Martin, K. L., Vose, J. M., Baker, J. S., Warziniack, T. W., Costanza, J. K., ... & Mihiar, C. M. (2023). Forested watersheds provide the highest water quality among all land cover types, but the benefit of this ecosystem service depends on landscape context. Science of The Total Environment, 882, 163550.   Sanchez, L., Warziniack, T., & Knowles, M. (2023). The inequitable exposure of socially vulnerable groups to water shortages across the United States. Environmental Research Letters, 18(4), 044022.   Blachly, B., Sims, C., & Warziniack, T. (2023). Natural Capital Externalities: Evidence from Over 700 US Watersheds. Available at SSRN 4329537.   Warziniack, T., Arabi, M., Brown, T. C., Froemke, P., Ghosh, R., Rasmussen, S., & Swartzentruber, R. (2022). Projections of freshwater use in the United States under climate change. Earth's Future, 10(2), e2021EF002222.     Wyoming (Hansen) Bennett, D.E., M. Lewis, H. Mahowald, M. Collins, T. Brammer, H. Byerly Flint,L. Thorsness, W. Eaton, K. Hansen, M. Burbach, and E. Koebele. 2023. Agricultural Water Users’ Preferences for Addressing Water Shortages in the Colorado River Basin. September, 2023. 40 pages.   Hansen, K., S. Brodnax, R. Coupal, J. Lamb, A. MacKinnon, G. Paige, E. Peterson, M. Purcell. Wyoming Conservation Exchange: A Case Study in Grassroots Conservation Program Design. Journal of Extension. Forthcoming.   Hansen, K., S. Buck, D. Godwin, A. Fernald, B. Gaolach, G. Paige, T. Warziniack, R. Heinse, and H. Braithwaite. 2023. The Western Water Network: A Vision for the Future of Water Management in the West. A Vision Paper prepared by members of the Western Water Network 2023 Workshop Organizing Committee.             Hansen, K. and R. Heinse. 2023. Water Resilience in Agriculture. In: Zhang, Q. (eds) Encyclopedia of Smart Agriculture Technologies. Springer, Cham.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-89123-7_192-3"> https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-89123-7_192-3</a>.   Warziniack, T., R. Heinse, A. Fernald, M. Gaffney, K. Hansen, B. Hess, L. Houglum, G. Paige, and Q. Zhang. 2023. “Western Water Network: A Case Study in Water Network Formation.” Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education 178: 47-56.

Impact Statements

During W4190, researchers provided insights into the effects of climate change on wildfire risk, invasive species, drought, and water availability. They studied the effect of climate change on aquifer depletion. They developed new climate databases. Developed models and tools for managing water under a changing climate.