OLD S1072: U.S. Agricultural Trade and Policy in a Dynamic Global Market Environment

(Multistate Research Project)

Status: Inactive/Terminating

Project Menu

SAES-422 Reports

Annual/Termination Reports:

[11/13/2018] [02/12/2020] [07/06/2021] [01/15/2022] [12/18/2022]

Date of Annual Report: 11/13/2018

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 10/29/2018 - 10/30/2018
Period the Report Covers: 10/01/2017 - 09/30/2018

Participants

Participant Affiliation
Kwan Choi Iowa State University
Amanda Countryman Colorado State University
Karen Lewis-DeLong University of Tennessee
Shida Henneberry Oklahoma State University
Lynn Kennedy Louisiana State University
David Ortega Michigan State University
Saleem Shaik North Dakota State University
Nelson Villoria Kansas State University
Jarrett Whistance University of Missouri
Osei Yeboah North Carolina A&T Univ.
Eric Young State Ag Experiment Station Directors

Brief Summary of Minutes

Minutes Attachment:

S 1072 Minutes, 10-'18.docx

Accomplishments

Publications

Impact Statements

Date of Annual Report: 02/12/2020

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 12/11/2019 - 12/11/2019
Period the Report Covers: 10/01/2018 - 09/30/2019

Participants

1 Countryman, Amanda Colorado State University
2 Durand-Morat, Alvaro University of Arkansas
3 Gallagher, Paul Iowa State University
4 Kennedy, Lynn LSU
5 Munisamy, Gopinath University of Georgia
6 Nogueira, Lia University of Nebraska
7 Ortega, David Michigan State University
8 Ribera, Luis Texas A&M
9 Schmitz, Andrew University of Florida
10 Seale, Jim University of Florida
11 Sheldon, Ian The Ohio State University
12 Steinbach, Sandro University of Connecticut
13 Whistance, Jarrett University of Missouri
14 Wahl, Tom NDSU
15 Yeboah, Osei North Carolina A&T
16 Young, Eric NCSU
17 Zhang, Lisha Clemson University

Brief Summary of Minutes

Minutes Attachment:

S-1072 DC 2019 - Minutes.docx

Accomplishments

Jisang Yu and Nelson Villoria are working on the Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates: In this paper, they estimate how farmland rental rates are affected by the changes in tariffs that U.S. export crops face. Using annual county-level data of cash rents for non-irrigated fields in 2,534 U.S. counties, the authors first directly estimate the impact of tariff changes on cash rents. The findings indicate that one percent increase in ad valorem equivalent localized tariff reduces cash rental rates by about 4.2% of the 2017 average. The authors also provide the predicted changes in cash rental rates caused by the 2018 Chinese retaliatory soybeans tariff using the estimated impact of localized tariff changes. They expect to have it under review in the summer of 2020. As part of the FAPRI group, Jarrett Whistance and Alvaro Durand-Morat collaborate the U.S. Baseline Outlook, which provides 10-year projections for agricultural and biofuel markets. The Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program (AGREP) at the University of Arkansas, led by Dr. Durand-Morat, provides the international rice market projections that are used by FAPRI to calibrate the U.S. agricultural and biofuel models. Dr. Durand-Morat and Dr. Lanier Nalley are working on a number of projects looking at the efficiency of international rice markets. We are conducting market research in Congo, Ghana, Nigeria, Mozambique, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Honduras, and Puerto Rico, collecting consumer survey data and rice samples to ascertain if rice is price efficiently in these markets according to the quality of the rice traded. We are writing 3 manuscripts for peer-reviewed publications and expect to send them for review in 2020. Dr. Durand-Morat and Dr. Nalley are also working on a project looking at the return on investment of Checkoff rice funds in Arkansas and its impact on AR rice competitiveness. In 2019, Dr. Durand-Morat and Dr. Ribera were part of a team that put together the Choices’ theme issue “The Agricultural Production Potential of Latin America: Implications for Global Food Supply and Trade.” Grant Awards <ul> <li>“Scientific Exchanges Fellowship Program.” USDA-FAS (Co-PI), J. Beghin, A. Bianchini, L. Calegare, R.E. Goodman, C. Gustafson, B. Martinez, L. Nogueira and S. Wegulo, $400,000. September 2019 – September 2021.</li> <li>“Effects of China’s Trade Policies on U.S. Distillers’ Dried Grains.” International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium Annual Meeting, December 2019, presented by Lia Nogueira</li> <li>"Ranking the Top US and Global Agri-Food Trade Shocks: A Panel Data Econometric Assessment," Funded by: Office of the Chief Economist, USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2018 - Sep. 30, 2019; PI: Jason Grant; Co-PIs: Mary Marchant, Everett Peterson, and David Orden.</li> <li>"Developing a Linked Global-Spatial Crop and Livestock Simulation Model and International Trade Elasticity Estimation," Funded by: Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2019 - Dec. 31, 2020; PI: Jason Grant; Co-PIs: Mary Marchant, Charlotte Emlinger, Everett Peterson, and David Orden.</li> <li>Title: Analysis of Agricultural Markets and Policies. Agency: USDA, Office of Rural Development. 2019. Amount: $75,000. PI: Alvaro Durand-Morat; CO-PI: Eric Wailes.</li> </ul> Seminars/Conference Sections <ul> <li>C-FARE Webinar, September 2019. “Changes in the Multilateral Trading System: Impacts to US Agriculture”. I organized and moderated this for C-FARE, with Amanda Countryman and Jason Grant as two of the presenters. Link: <a href="https://www.cfare.org/new-blog/trade2019webinar">https://www.cfare.org/new-blog/trade2019webinar</a></li> <li>IATRC Theme Day, December 2019, “Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis”. I organized this with Jason Grant on behalf of IATRC, Nelson Valloria was a discussant, and Amanda Countryman was a panelist. Link: <a href="http://iatrcweb.org/">http://iatrcweb.org/</a></li> <li>Westhoff, P., B. Soon and T. Davids. “A Hybrid Model Approach to Estimating Impacts of China’s Tariffs on U.S. Soybeans.” Annual meetings of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Atlanta, GA. July 22, 2019. Available at https://www.fapri.missouri.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/hybrid-model-aaea.pdf.</li> <li>Whistance, Jarrett, Seth Meyer, Wyatt Thompson, and Deepayan Debnath. “Year-Round E15: Could a Policy to Expand E15 Use Become a Disincentive Unto Itself?” Selected for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium. Washington, D.C. December 8-10, 2019.</li> </ul>

Publications

Ali, R.B., J. Luckstead, A. Durand-Morat, and E. Wailes. The Impacts of Trade and Self-Sufficiency Policies on Heterogeneous Rice Farms in Malaysia. Review of Development Economics 23:1659–1673. 2019. Ali, R.B., A. Durand-Morat, E. Wailes, and J. Luckstead. Self-Sufficiency and International Trade Policy Strategies in the Malaysian Rice Sector: Approaches to Food Security Using Spatial Partial Equilibrium Analysis. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, 16(1), June 2019. Bajrami, E., E.J. Wailes, B. Dixon, A. Musliu, and A. Durand-Morat. Do coupled subsidies increase milk productivity, land use, herd size and income? Evidence from Kosovo. Studies in Agricultural Economics 121: 134-143. 2019. <a href="https://doi.org/10.7896/j.1913">https://doi.org/10.7896/j.1913</a>. Baylis, Kathy, Linlin Fan and Lia Nogueira. 2019. “Agricultural Market Liberalization and Household Food Security in Rural China.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 101(1):250-269, https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay031 Clements, Y., D. Calil, and L. Ribera. “Brazil’s Agricultural Production and Its Potential as Global Food Supplier.” Choices. 3rd Quarter 34:3 (2019). Countryman, A.M., and A. Muhammad (2018) “Chinese Trade Retaliation May Diminish U.S. Wine Export Potential” Choices 33(2): 1-7. DeLong, K.L., K.L. Jensen, A.P. Griffith, and E. McLeod. 2019. “Beef Cattle Farmers’ Marketing Preferences for Selling Local Beef.” Agribusiness: an International Journal, 35(3):343-357. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21579 De Matteis, M.C., T.E. Yu, C.N. Boyer and K.E. DeLong. 2019. “Analyzing Determinants of U.S. Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles Exports.” Agribusiness: An International Journal, 35(2):168-181. Durand-Morat, A. “Agricultural Production Potential in Southern Cone: Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay” Choices. 3rd Quarter 34:3 (2019). Durand-Morat, A., E.C. Chavez, and E.J. Wailes. World and U.S. Rice Baseline Outlook, 2018–2028. B.R. Wells Arkansas Rice Research Studies (2018): 412-423. Agricultural Experiment Station. Fayetteville, Arkansas. August 2019. Hejazi, M., M.A. Marchant, J. Zhu and X. Ning. 2019. "The Decline of U.S. Export Competitiveness in the Chinese Meat Import Market." Agribusiness: An International Journal Special Issue "The Twenty-First Century Agribusiness in China." 35(1):114-126. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21588">https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21588</a> Kennedy, P.L., A. Schmitz, and K.L. DeLong. 2019. “Biotechnology and Demand Concerns: The Case of Genetically Modified Sugar Beets.” AgBioForum, 22(1): 1-13. http://www.agbioforum.org/v22n1/v22n1-kennedy.htm Marchant, M.A. and H.H. Wang, co-editors, 2018. "U.S.–China Trade Dispute and Potential Impacts on Agriculture" Theme Issue, Choices. 2nd Quarter 33:2(2018), 36 pages. This theme issue was awarded the 2019 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Quality of Communication Award. McKay, L., K.L. DeLong, K.L. Jensen, A.P. Griffith, C.N. Boyer, and D.M. Lambert. 2019. “Restaurant Willingness to Pay for Local Beef." Agribusiness: an International Journal, 35(4): 610-624. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21605 McLeod, E., K.L. Jensen, K.L. DeLong, and A.P. Griffith. 2019. “A Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes Analysis of Beef Cattle Farmers’ Information Use.” Journal of Extension, 57(3):1-13. https://www.joe.org/joe/2019june/a2.php Muhammad, A., J. Thompson, and K.L. DeLong. In Press. “Implications of KORUS on U.S. beef in South Korea.” International Journal of Trade and Global Markets. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTGM.2020.10023006 Muhammad, A., B. Meade, D.R. Marquardt, & D. Mozaffarian (2019) “Global Patterns in Price Elasticities of Sugar-sweetened Beverage Intake and Potential Effectiveness of Tax Policy: A Cross-sectional Study of 164 Countries by Sex, Age and Global-income Decile” BMJ Open 9:e026390. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026390. Muhammad, A., & A. Countryman (2019) “In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: Impacts of Fraud on Wine Imports in China” Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 63: 742-58. doi:10.1111/1467-8489.12333. Nguyen, L. and H. W. Kinnucan. 2019.  The US Solar Panel Anti-Dumping Duties Versus Uniform Tariff. Energy Policy 127: 523-532. Nguyen, L. and H. W. Kinnucan. 2018.  World Price Transmission for Differentiated Products: The Case of Shrimp in the U.S. Market. Marine Resource Economics 33: 351-372. Nguyen, L. and H. W. Kinnucan. 2018.  Effects of Income and Population Growth on Fish Price and Welfare. Aquaculture Economics and Management 22: 244-263. Okpiaifo, G., A. Durand-Morat, G.H. West, L.L. Nalley, R.M. Nayga, and E.J. Wailes. “Consumers’ preferences for sustainable rice practices in Nigeria.” Global Food Security 24. Available online December 2019. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.100345">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.100345</a>. Sharma, A.* J.H. Grant, and K.A. Boys. 2019. “The Bright Side of the Generalized System of (Trade) Preferences: Lessons from Agricultural Trade,” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 44(1): 32-61. Song, Baohui and Mary A. Marchant, in press/2019. “Enhancing Student Learning Using an International Trade Simulation Project." North American Colleges and Teachers of Agriculture (NACTA) Journal- Special Issue “Engaging Students in Global Agriculture.” Soon, B.M., and W. Thompson. “Japanese Beef Trade Impact from BSE Using a Time-Varying Armington Model.” Agribusiness: an International Journal 1-17. 2019. Soon, B.M., and W. Thompson. “Non-Tariff Measures and Product Differentiation: Hormone-Treated Beef Trade from the United States and Canada to the European Union.” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 1-15. July 22, 2019. DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12200. Soon, B.M., P. Westhoff, and W. Thompson. “The Impact of Potential Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement Renegotiation on the Korean Rice Market and Trade.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 1-16. 2019. Thompson, Wyatt, Joe Dewbre, Simone Pieralli, Kateryna Schroeder, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, and Patrick Westhoff. “Long-Term Crop Productivity Response and Its Effects on Cereal Markets.” Food Policy 84: 1-9. 2019. Wang, P., H.W. Kinnucan, and P.A. Duffy. 2019.  The Effects of Rising Labour Costs on Global Supply Chains: The Case of China’s Cotton Yarn Industry. Applied Economics 51: 3608-3623. Westhoff, P., T. Davids and B.M. Soon. “Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs.” Choices (Quarter 4, 2019). Available online: <a href="http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs">http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs</a> Westhoff, Patrick, Scott Gerlt, Jarrett Whistance, Julian Binfield, Sera Chiuchiarelli, Hoa Hoang, Wyatt Thompson, Seth Meyer, Jong-Ik Kim, and Abigail Meffert. “Baseline Update for International Dairy, Livestock and Biofuel Markets.” FAPRI-MU Report 4-19. 2019. Yoonho Choi, and E. Kwan Choi, “Quality Wars in the North,” World Economy 42 (2019), 2026-2938. Yu, T.E., B. Sharma, and B.C. English. 2019. “Investigating Lock Delay on the Upper Mississippi River: a Spatial Panel Analysis.” Networks and Spatial Economics, 19:275-291. Yu, T.E., T. Tong, and L. Kennedy. “Assessing the Potential Trade Impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.” Proceedings of the Chinese Economists Society’s Annual Conference, Dalian, China. June 8-9, 2019. Zhang, Wei* and Mary A. Marchant, in press/2019. “U.S.-China Sorghum Trade Analysis within the Trade Conflict: Growth, Trends, and Forecast.” Journal of Management Policy and Practice (JMPP). (* denotes graduate student/postdoctoral scholar)

Impact Statements

Date of Annual Report: 07/06/2021

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 12/16/2020 - 12/16/2020
Period the Report Covers: 12/16/2020 - 12/16/2020

Participants

Participant Affiliation
1 DeLong, Karen The University of Tennessee
2 Henneberry, Shida Oklahoma State University
3 Kennedy, Lynn Louisiana State University
4 Muhammad, Andrew The University of Tennessee
5 Munisamy, Gopinath University of Georgia
6 Ribera, Luis Texas A&M
7 Salassi, Michael LSU
8 Schmitz, Troy Arizona State University
9 Sheldon, Ian The Ohio State University
10 Villoria, Nelson Kansas State University

Brief Summary of Minutes

Minutes Attachment:

S-1072 Online 2020 Meeting - Minutes.docx

Accomplishments

Kansas State University The main accomplishments of the work completed during this reporting period are listed below. China has become an increasingly important importer of corn and other agricultural commodities. This motivated us to study the extent to which China’s policies directed to protect their domestic markets have a diversification objective. In an article in Agricultural Economics, we find that China’s policies, in particular their administration of the tariff-rate-quotas for imported grains committed before the WTO, have helped China to diversify suppliers. This is an interesting finding as China’s demand could stimulate more production form South America and Eastern Europe, which in turn could help to diversify exporters. Such diversification has contrasting effects for U.S. producers. On the one hand, China’s reorientation of their supply source will contribute to erode market shares. On the other, a more diversified set of suppliers may reduce concerns in importing countries about the exposure to foreign shocks, which over time, could reduce the rationale for obstructing market access to U.S. corn exports. On the area of risk management programs and trade policy, our research has help to understand how the government-supported risk management programs affect farm production and crop supply. For example, the U.S. federal crop insurance has expanded rapidly for the last several decades and one of his recent projects focuses on the impacts of crop insurance on crop supply. These policies have directly bearing on trade as their distortionary effects and compliance with the WTO framework remain underexplored. More work on this area is expected in the current reporting period. On the area of climate instability and agricultural prices, our findings suggest that increased volatility could be offset with increases in the ratio of imports to total consumption or in the stock-to-use ratio at the beginning of the crop marketing year. The fact that both imports and stocks help to stabilize domestic prices suggests that their uses should hinge on a careful cost-benefit analysis, including the risk of facing world production more variable than domestic production and the costs of carrying maize inventories over time. Virginia Tech: Listed below are the accomplishments of S-1072 Virginia team members Mary Marchant and Jason Grant, both of whom are members of the Center for Agricultural Trade at Virginia Tech's College of Agriculture and Life Sciences: GRANT AWARDS New Grants 1. "Expanding the Linked Global-Spatial Crop-Livestock Model to Include Dairy and a Prototype Fresh Fruit, Vegetable and Tree Nut Model," Funded by: Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2020 - Dec. 31, 2021; PI: Jason Grant; Co-PIs: Xin Ning, Mary Marchant, Charlotte Emlinger, and David Orden. $350,000 Description Virginia Tech's Center for Agricultural Trade continues to work with USDA baseline model specialists to extend the VT-OCE linked global livestock-crop partial equilibrium simulation model with the addition of a dairy products component including fluid milk production and processed cheese, butter, yogurt, whey, and milk powders in a multiproduct modeling framework. 2. "Implications of COVID-19 for Agricultural Trade," Funded by: Economic Research Service, USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2020 - Sep 30, 2021; PIs: John Bovay and Shamar Stewart, Co-PIs: Jason Grant. $50,000 Description In 2020, the Covid19 pandemic challenged the global economy, spreading to nearly every country around the globe, decreasing and even shuttering economic activity, and threatening the lives of some of our most vulnerable populations. However, less is know how the pandemic influenced trade in staple agricultural products. This project seeks to enhance understanding of the way in which the Covid19 pandemic impacted trade in agricultural products. Ongoing Grants 3. Effects of Contested Regulatory Measures on U.S. and Global Agricultural Trade," Funded by: NIFA/AFRI Economics, Markets and Trade Program, 2018-2021. PD: J.H. Grant (Co-PIs: D. Orden, M. Marchant and E.B. Peterson) (Collaborators: Lee Ann Jackson (WTO), Christiane Wolff (WTO)). $337,611. Description International trade is vital to the prosperity of U.S. agriculture and accounts for 20% of U.S. farm income. To contribute toward securing and creating opportunities for U.S. agriculture and food products to enter into and remain competitive in foreign markets, this project seeks to significantly enhance our understanding of the impacts of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBT) affecting the U.S and global agricultural trade. Specific objectives are: (i) to create an inventory of SPS and TBT measures affecting the U.S. and global agricultural trade using a targeted approach of exporters' revealed concerns; (ii) Develop a state-of-the-art econometric framework to provide new quantitative estimates of the impact of revealed SPS and TBT specific trade concerns on the U.S. and global agricultural trade. (iii) Develop a discretetime model to provide novel evidence on the extent to which SPS and TBT measures impact the duration and hazard rate of U.S. and competing suppliers' agricultural trade. 2018-2019 project accomplishments include a. Completed comprehensive TBT database over the 1995-2018 timeframe. b. Completed model and estimation framework to determine impacts of SPS and TBT measures on trade flows c. Completed comprehensive policy report outlining the results of this project d. Preparation of journal articles and book chapters e. This project has supported current Ph.D. student Khadija Rouchdi 4. "Developing a Linked Global-Spatial Crop and Livestock Simulation Model and International Trade Elasticity Estimation," Funded by: Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) and Economic Research Service (ERS) USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2019 - Dec. 31, 2020; PI: Jason Grant; Co-PIs: Mary Marchant, Charlotte Emlinger, Everett Peterson, and David Orden. University of Tennessee Accomplishments What was accomplished under these goals?   Impact Statement International markets account for a considerable portion of U.S. agricultural products sales thus our project serves U.S. producers and agribusiness by providing them updated and relevant information and analysis related to the impacts of domestic and international polices on trade. In the short term, our project outputs enhance the knowledge of U.S. agricultural producers and agribusiness regarding the potential impact of policies or regulations on marketing their products. In the medium term, U.S. producers and agribusiness could identify the potential markets and make more adequate investment decisions based on the knowledge provided from our outputs. Enhancing the knowledge of policy impacts on trade could also help producers and investors reduce the uncertainties and risk of counting on a single/dominant market and make a more comprehensive and long-term investment plan. In the long term, our study could benefit the society from developing a stronger agricultural sector through the improvement in the decision process and related financial condition of U.S. agricultural producers and agribusiness. Consumers will benefit from acquiring low-cost and diverse agricultural products when producers and agribusiness gain more knowledge in allocating resources more effectively.   In 2019/20, our focus is on the impacts of U.S. and foreign policies, regulations, market structures, and productivity on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment. The data used in those activities are primarily obtained from USDA or public accessed websites. We highlight two of our studies below.   <ol> <li>a) The Impact of US Sugar Prices on the Financial Performance of US Sugar-Using Firms</li> </ol> What is the issue? US sugar policy protects domestic sugar producers from world sugar prices because the world sugar market consists of heavily subsidized sugar from countries such as India and Brazil. The world sugar market is often considered the most distorted commodity market because nearly all sugar-exporting countries subsidize their sugar industries. Due to the mechanics of the US sugar program, and the fact that the world sugar market consists of mostly subsidized sugar, US raw and refined wholesale prices for sugar are typically higher than world raw and wholesale sugar prices. For instance, from 2000 to 2017, US raw sugar prices have been, on average, 10 cents per pound higher than world sugar prices. Critics argue that the US sugar policy sustains a relatively small number of jobs in the sugar industry, while causing economic losses to sugar-using industries because US raw and wholesale prices are artificially higher than raw and wholesale world prices. The goal of this paper is to investigate if the higher US price of sugar (compared to the world price of sugar) negatively impacts the financial performance of sugar-using firms. What has the team done to address the problem? The team applied a regression analysis to examine the effect of the US sugar program on the financial performance of publicly traded food manufacturers who use sugar as a primary input. We used a standard financial accounting model and included the US-to-world sugar price ratio as an explanatory variable. The null hypothesis we test is that the US-to-world sugar price ratio does not affect sugar-using firm financial performance. Unexpectantly, the regression results provide statistical evidence that as the US sugar price increases relative to the world sugar price, sugar-using firm financial performance improves. This is likely a result of sugar-using firms passing higher sugar costs on to consumers. An ex post analysis indicates that the statistical tests have adequate power. Findings provide guidelines for future analyses investigating the relationship between the US sugar program and sugar-using firm financial performance. What are the impacts of the team’s research? The findings have been cited by the American Sugar Alliance in their press release, titled “New Report Finds No Evidence that U.S. Sugar Program Harms Profitability of Sugar-Using Companies.” This study has also been featured by various popular press outlets as it provides a new evidence to a long-debated issue related to the potential impact of U.S. sugar program on sugar-using companies. Dr. DeLong, in her interview, indicated that “The U.S. sugar program buffers domestic sugar producers against heavily subsidized foreign sugar, but sugar-using firms claim that this program maintains artificially high domestic prices and therefore decreases profits. The data show that when all other conditions remain the same, there is no evidence to support these claims.” The results have also been published in Agricultural and Food Economics.   <ol> <li>b) COVID-19 and Cotton Demand in China: Implications for U.S. Exports </li> </ol> What is the issue? The COVID-19 outbreak has substantially reduced global spending on apparel and other cotton products. As the leading global market for cotton imports and leading exporter of clothing and apparel, China’s demand for cotton from exporting countries, such as U.S., has been adversely affected by this pandemic, and potentially influences U.S. cotton exports. What has the team done to address the problem? We examined Chinese demand for imported cotton by product form (raw cotton and yarn) and by source (e.g., U.S., India), as well as the dynamic price relationships across countries. Using year-to-date trade, demand estimates, and price forecasts, we assessed the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese imports and the countries supplying this market. What are the impacts of the team’s research? Based on our analysis, the most severe impacts of COVID-19 on Chinese cotton imports are either behind us, or the latter half of 2020 could potentially be just as bad as the early part of the year. The outcome depends on the impact of manufactured-product prices on imports. This research has increased understanding of the potential impact of the pandemic to U.S. and Tennessee agriculture. With the signing of the U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement in January 2020 and retaliatory tariff exemptions by the Chinese government in March 2020, the expectations for U.S. cotton exports to China in 2020 were significantly higher than the level in 2019. Our results suggest that Chinese imports of U.S. cotton in 2020 will fall well short of this goal. This study has been accepted by Agribusiness: An International Journal.

Publications

Oklahoma State 1    Shayanmehr, S.; Henneberry, S. R.*, Sabouhi Sabouni, M.; Shahnoushi Foroushani, N.*. 2020. “Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity”.  Sustainability, 12(23), p. 9890. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12239890   2    Bragoli, G. D., M. C. Edwards, S. R. Henneberry, C. E. Watters. 2020. “Interpreting the Impact of a Professional Development Program: The Views of Entrepreneur Fellows from Kenya, South Africa, and Uganda One Year Later". Journal of Agricultural and Extension Education (JIAEE), Forthcoming (accepted on 10.19.20, manuscript # 2020-1332). 3    Fakari Sardehae, B.; Shahnoushi, N.; Mohammadi, H.; Rastegari Henneberry, S. 2021. “The Limitations and Capacities of Crops and Horticultural Production in Iran.” Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, Vol 23, Issue 4, July 2021. www.Jast.modares.ac.ir 4    Henneberry, S. R. and R. Radmehr. 2020. “Quantifying impacts of internships in an international agriculture degree program.”  PLOS ONE, August 17, 2020. https://doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0237437             5    Radmehr, S. and S. R. Henneberry. 2020. “Energy Price Policies and Food Prices: Empirical Evidence from Iran.” Energies, Special Issue: Energy Policy and Policy Implications 2020, 13(15), August 4, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13154031    6    Shayanmehr, S.; S. R. Henneberry, M. S. Sabouni; N. Shahnoushi Foroushani. 2020. “Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Special Issue: Environment and Applied Ecology Section. Published 7/21/20. doi:10.3390/ijerph17145264 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17145264   7    Liu, W., Radmehr, R., Zhang, S., Henneberry, S. R., and Wei, C. 2020. “Driving mechanism of concentrated rural resettlement in upland areas of Sichuan Basin: A perspective of marketing hierarchy transformation”, Land Use Policy, 99:104879, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104879. 8    Wu, T.; S. R. Henneberry; J. Ng’ombe, R. T. Melstrom. 2020. “Chinese Demand for Agritourism in Rural America.” Sustainability. Special Issue: Emerging Destinations Tourism Economics, 12(7), 3052, April 10, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12073052 9    Zayone, T. I., S. R. Henneberry, and R. Radmehr. 2020. “Effects of Agricultural, Manufacturing and Mineral Exports on Angola’s Economic Growth. Energies (ISSN 1996 -1073).” 13 (6): 1494. March 21, 2020.  https://doi.org/10.3390/en13061494 10    Gao, Y., Z. Zheng; S. R. Henneberry. 2020. “Is Nutritional Status Associated with Income Growth? Evidence from Chinese Adults.” China Agricultural Economic Review, CAER-11-2019-0216.R2. ISSn 1756-137X, April 28, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-11-2019-0216   University of Florida 1.    Adams, D.C., Soto, J.R., Lai, J., Escobedo, F.J., Alvarez, S., and Kibria, A.S.M.G. (2020). Public Preferences and Willingness to Pay for Invasive Forest Pest Prevention Programs in Urban Areas. Forests, 11(10),1056. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11101056 2.    Ferreira J-P, Ramos PN, Lahr ML. (2020). The rise of the sharing economy: Guesthouse boom and the crowding-out effects of tourism in Lisbon. Tourism Economics, 26(3), 389-403. Doi:10.1177/1354816619839849 3.    Ferreira, J.-P, Isidoro, C., Moura Sá, F., Mota, J.-C. (2020) The economic value for cycling – a methodological assessment for Starter Cities. Hábitat y Sociedad ,13: 29-45. http://dx.doi.org/10.12795/HabitatySociedad.2020.i13.03 4.    Lahr, ML, Ferreira, JP, Többen, JR. (2020) Intraregional trade shares for goods‐producing industries: RPC esimates using EU data. Pap Reg Sci. 99: 1583– 1605. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12541 5.    Lai, J., Morgan, S., Kassas, B., Kropp, J., and Gao, Z. (2020). Spending of Economic Stimulus Payments and Changes in Food Purchasing During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Choices, 35(3),1-8. 6.    Lai, J., and Widmar, N.O., (2020). Revisiting the Digital Divide in the COVID‐19 Era. Applied economic perspectives and policy, 00(00),1-7. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13104 7.    Lai, J., and Widmar, N., and Bir, C. (2020). Eliciting Consumer Willingness to Pay for Home Internet Service: Closing the Digital Divide in the State of Indiana. Applied economic perspectives and policy, 42(2),263-282. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13000 8.    Morgan, S.N., N.M. Mason, and M.K. Maredia. (2020). “Lead-farmer extension and smallholder valuation of new agricultural technologies in Tanzania.” Food Policy 97: 1–11. 9.    Moss, Charles B. and Dong Hee Suh. (2020). Effect of Compliance Cost on the Supply of Bank Credit to Agriculture: A Differential Approach. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 102(3): 713-726. [DOI: 10.1002/ajae.12074] 10.    Oehmke, James F., Charles B. Moss, Lauren Nadya Singh, Theresa Bristok Oehmke, and Lori Ann Post. (2020).  Dynamic Panel Surveillance of COVID-19 Transmission in the United States to Inform Health Policy: Observational Statistical Study Journal of Medical Internet Research , 22(10):e21955. [DOI: 10.2196/21955] 11.    Post, Lori A., Salem T Argaw, Cameron Jones, Charles B. Moss, Denielle Resnick, Lauren Nadya Singh, Robert Leo Murphy, Chad J. Achenbach, Janine White, Tariq Ziad Issa, Michael J. Boctor, James F. Oehmke. (2020). A SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance System in Sub-Saharan Africa: Modeling Study for Persistence and Transmission to Inform Policy. Journal of Medical Internet Research 2020;22(11):e24248. [DOI: 10.2196/24248] 12.    Post, Lori Ann, Tariq Ziad Issa, Michael J. Boctor, Charles B. Moss, Robert L. Murphy, Michael G. Ison, Chad J. Achenbach, Danielle Resnick, Lauren Nadya Singh, Janine White, Joshua Marco Faber, Kasen Culler, Cynthia A. Brandt, and James Francis Oehmke. (2020). Dynamic Metrics for Public Health Surveillance Are Imperative to Gain Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic in America: Longitudinal Trend Analysis. Journal of Medical Internet Research (In Press) [DOI: 10.2196/24286] 13.    Neuhofer, Z., B. McFadden, A. Rihn, X. Wei, H. Khachatryan, and L. House (2020). Can the updated nutrition facts label decrease sugar-sweetened beverage consumption? Economics & Human Biology 37: 100867. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2020.100867 14.    Schmitz, Andrew, Charles B. Moss, and Troy G. Schmitz. 2020. The Economic Effects of COVID-19 on the Producers of Ethanol, Corn, Gasoline, and Oil. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization 18(2) [DOI: 10.1515/jafio-2020-0025]. 15.    Simnitt, S., L. House, S. Larkin, J. Sweeney Tookes, and T. Yandle (2020). Using Markets to Control Invasive Species: Lionfish in the US Virgin Islands. Marine Resource Economics, 35(4): 319-241. 16.    Spreen, T.L., L.A. House, and Z. Gao (2020). The Impact of Varying Financial Incentives on Data Quality in Web Panel Surveys, Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 8(5): 832-850. https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smz030 17.    Stainback, G.A., Lai, J., Pienaar, E., Adam, D.C., Wiederholt, R., and Vorseth, C. (2020). Public preferences for ecological indicators used in Everglades restoration. PLOS One, 15(6),e0234051. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0234051 18.    Van Treese II, J. W. and Olexa, M.T. (2020). Application of the Florida-Friendly Landscaping Statute to Homeowner Disputes Regarding Violation of Restrictive Covenants. The Florida Bar Journal. Volume 94(6):  34-41. November/December 2020 19.    Widmar, N., Bir, C., Lai, J., and Wolf, C. (2020). Public Perceptions of Veterinarians from Social and Online Media Listening. Veterinary Sciences, 7(2),75. https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci7020075 1.    Campbell, J., A. Rihn, and H. Khachatryan. 2020. Factors Influencing Home Lawn Fertilizer Choice in the United States. HortTechnology, 30(3), 296-305. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTTECH04454-19 2.    Hall, C.R., Hodges, A.W., H. Khachatryan, and M.A. Palma. (2020). Economic Contributions of the Green Industry in the United States in 2018. Journal of Environmental Horticulture, 38(3), 73-79. https://doi.org/10.24266/0738-2898-38.3.73 3.    Khachatryan, H., A. Rihn, G. Hansen, and T. Clem. (2020). Landscape Aesthetics and Maintenance Perceptions: Assessing the Relationship between Homeowners’ Visual Attention and Landscape Care Knowledge. Land Use Policy, 95, 104645.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104645 4.    Knuth, M., B. Behe, P. Huddleston, C. Hall, R. Thomas, and H. Khachatryan. 2020. Water Conserving Message Influences Purchasing Decision of Consumers. Special Issue Water Use and Scarcity, Water, 12(12), 3487.  https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123487 5.    McGinnis, E., A. Rihn, N. Bumgarner, S. Krishnan, J. Cole, C. Sclar, and H. Khachatryan. 2020. Enhancing Consumer Horticulture’s Millennial Outreach: Social Media, Retail and Public Garden Perspectives. HortTechnology, 30(6), 642-649.  https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTTECH04697-20 6.    Wei, X., H. Khachatryan, and A. Rihn. (2020). Production Costs and Profitability for Selected Greenhouse Grown Annual and Perennial Crops: Partial Enterprise Budgeting and Sensitivity Analysis. HortScience. 55(5), 637-646. https://doi.org/10.21273/HORTSCI14633-19 7.    Walters, L., Wade, T., & Suttles, S. (2020) Food and Agricultural Transportation Challenges Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic. Choices, 35(3). 8.    Wei, X., H. Khachatryan, and A. Rihn. (2020). Consumer Preferences for Labels Disclosing the Use of Neonicotinoid Pesticides: Evidence from Experimental Auctions. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 45(3), 496-517.  doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.302462    9.    Zhang, X., and H. Khachatryan. (2020). Investigating Monetary Incentives for Environmentally Friendly Residential Landscapes. Special Issue Urban Environmental Policy and Planning: Land Use and Water, Water, 12(11), 3023.  https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113023 Ohio State 1    S. McCorriston and I.M. Sheldon, “Economic Nationalism: US Trade Policy vs. Brexit”, Ohio State Business Law Journal, 14(1), 2020. 2    J. Eum, I. M. Sheldon and S. Thompson, “Product Quality in Food and Agricultural Trade: Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Trade Costs,” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, forthcoming. 3    I.M. Sheldon, “Reflections on a Career as an Industrial Organization and International Economist,” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, forthcoming. 4    D.C.K. Chow and I.M. Sheldon, “Understanding the Economic and Political Effects of Trump’s China Tariffs,” William and Mary Business Law Review, forthcoming. 5    I.M. Sheldon and J. Grant, “Global Trade in Agricultural Products: The Likely Impact of COVID-19”, in Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Food and Agricultural Markets, CAST, June 2020. The University of Tennessee 1.    Dellachiesa, A. and T.E. Yu. 2019. “The Impact of Output, Energy and Trade on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Mercosur Member States: A Panel Cointegration Analysis.” Brazilian Review of Economics and Agribusiness, 17:151-170. 2.    DeLong, K.L., K.L. Jensen, S. Upendram, E.A. Eckelkamp. 2020. “Consumer Preferences for Tennessee Milk.” Journal of Food Distribution Research, 51(2): 111-130. 3.    Ellis, J., K.L. DeLong, D.M. Lambert, S. Schexnayder, P. Krawczel, and S. Oliver. 2020. “Analysis of Closed Versus Operating Dairies in the Southeastern United States.” Journal of Dairy Science, 103(6): 5148-5161. 4.    Hong, C, W Wu, and A Muhammad. 2020. “The Spillover Effect of Export Processing Zones” China Economic Review 63, 101478. 5.    Koç, A.A., T.E. Yu, T. Kıymaz, and B. Sharma. 2019. “Effects of Government Supports and Credits on Turkish Agriculture: A Spatial Panel Analysis.” Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, 9:391-401 6.    Muhammad, A, SA Smith, and S MacDonald. 2019. “How Has the Trade Dispute Affected the U.S. Cotton Sector?” Choices 34(4). 7.    Muhammad, A., J. Thompson, and K.L. DeLong. 2020. “Implications of KORUS on U.S. beef in South Korea.” International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 13(4): 378-393. 8.    Trejo-Pech, C.J.O., K.L. DeLong, D.M. Lambert, and V. Siokos. 2020. “The Impact of US Sugar Prices on the Financial Performance of US Sugar-Using Firms.” Agricultural and Food Economics, 8(6): 1-17. 9.    Ufer, D, A Countryman, & A Muhammad (2020) “How Important are Product Attributes for U.S. Lamb Imports? International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 23(3): 411-423 Michigan State 1.    Ortega, D. L., Lusk, J. L., Lin, W., & Caputo, V. (2020). Predicting responsiveness to information: consumer acceptance of biotechnology in animal products. European Review of Agricultural Economics. Accepted, online 2.    Lin, W., Ortega, D.L., Ufer, D., Caputo, V., Awokuse, T. (2020). Blockchain-based traceability and demand for U.S. beef in China. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. Accepted, forthcoming Louisiana State University 1    Lazard, P.M., and P.L. Kennedy (2020), “Trouble at Old River: The Impact of a Mississippi River Avulsion on U.S. Soybean Exports,” Journal of Food Distribution Research, 51,3(Nov. 2020): In Press. 2    Kennedy, P.L., A. Schmitz, A., and F. Zhang (2020), “Sugar Recovery Rates in Louisiana, Florida, and Australia (1900–2018): Sugarcane Varietal Development and Cultural Practices,” Crop Science, 2020;1–11. https://doi.org/10.1002/csc2.20281.   3    Schmitz, A., P.L. Kennedy, and F. Zhang (2020), “Sugarcane and Sugar Yields in Louisiana (1911-2018): Varietal Development and Mechanization,” Crop Science, 60,3:1303–1312. Online version at https://doi.org/10.1002/csc2.20045. &emsp; Kansas State University 1    Perry, E.D., J. Yu, and J. Tack. 2020. Using insurance data to quantify the multidimensional impacts of warming temperatures on yield risk. Nature Communications 11(4542). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17707-2 2    M.R. Taylor, L. Sudbeck, C. Wilson, and J. Yu. 2020. Quality Effects on Kansas Land Price Trends, Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, 167–170. 3    Goodrich, B.K., J. Yu, and M. Vandeveer. 2020. Participation Patterns of the Rainfall Index Insurance for Pasture, Rangeland and Forage (RI-PRF) Program, forthcoming, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice (Special Issue on Agricultural Insurance), https://doi.org/10.1057/s41288-019-00149-3 4    Yu, J., and N. P. Hendricks. 2020. Input Use Decisions with Greater Information on Crop Conditions: Implications for Insurance Moral Hazard and the Environment, forthcoming, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaz035 5    Kim*, Y., J. Yu, and D. L. Pendell. 2020. Effects of Crop Insurance on Farm Disinvestment and Exit Decisions, European Review of Agricultural Economics, https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbz035   6    Chen, Bowen, Nelson B. Villoria and Tian Xia (2020). “Trade Impacts of Tariff Quota Administration in China’s Grain Markets: An Empirical Assessment.” Agricultural Economics 51:2, pp. 191-206. 7    Villoria, N.B (2019) “Consequences of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Growth for the Sustainability of Global Farming: Accounting for Direct and Indirect Land Use Effects.”  Environmental Research Letters, Volume 14, Number 12, November 2019, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4f57. 8    Yu, J., N.B. Villoria, and N.P. Hendricks, The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates, 2019 International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium Annual Meeting, Washington DC, December 8 – 10, 2019 9    Yu, J., N.B. Villoria, and N.P. Hendricks, The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates, Agricultural Economics Seminar, Mississippi State University, February 28,2020 10    Yu, J., N.B. Villoria, and N.P. Hendricks, The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates, National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on “Agricultural Markets and Trade Policy” (Virtual), April 30 – May 1, 2020 11    Villoria, N.B., Shourish Chakravarty* and Michael Delgado. “Land Supply Elasticity in the U.S. A Spatially Explicit Approach” Selected Paper at the 2020 AAEA Annual Meeting. Virtual. August 10-11, 2020. 12    Villoria, N.B., Shourish Chakravarty and Michael Delgado. “Land Supply Elasticity in the U.S. A Spatially Explicit Approach.” 23rd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis. Virtual. June 17-19, 2020. 13    Yu, Jisang*, Nelson B. Villoria, and Nathan Hendricks. “The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates.” NBER Agricultural Markets and Trade Policy Conference, Online due to COVID-19. April 30-May 1, 2020.

Impact Statements

Date of Annual Report: 01/15/2022

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 12/13/2021 - 12/13/2021
Period the Report Covers: 12/16/2020 - 12/16/2021

Participants

1 DeLong, Karen The University of Tennessee
2 Henneberry, Shida ERS/USDA
3 Kennedy, Lynn Louisiana State University
4 Muhammad, Andrew The University of Tennessee
5 Munisamy, Gopinath University of Georgia
6 Ribera, Luis Texas A&M 7 Salassi, Michael LSU
8 Schmitz, Troy Arizona State University
9 Sheldon, Ian The Ohio State University
10 Villoria, Nelson Kansas State University
11 Robe, Michel University of Illinois
12 Steinbach, Sandro University of Connecticut
12 Yu, Jisang, Kansas State
14 Yeboah, Osei NC A&T
15 Coi, Kwan, Iowa State
16 Durand-Morta, Alvaro Arkansas University
17 Villoria, Nelson Kansas State
18 Wang, Holly Indiana

Brief Summary of Minutes

Minutes Attachment:

Hatch (S-1072) 2021 Annual Meeting Notes.docx

Accomplishments

University of Tennessee The team members have received an AFRI grant, titled “Strengthening U.S. Beef Export Markets: Analysis of Consumer Willingness to Pay and Import Demand” to examine consumer preferences for U.S. beef and to estimate beef import demand in several major beef importing countries within Asia, Europe and Latin America. We are in year two of working on this grant and are about to launch surveys in Mexico, Japan, Germany and the UK to investigate those consumers’ preferences for US versus domestic beef. The research team has already launched a survey in China examining their preferences for US versus domestic beef. Results are currently being analyzed and written into a manuscript that will be submitted for publication. Team members have also received another USDA AFRI grant titled, “Food Loss and Waste (FL&W) Reduction at the Consumer-Grocery Retailer Interface,” to examine consumer food waste. Team members have just conducted an experimental auction (n=200) that evaluates consumer perceptions of lunch meat and salad with varying best if used by dates while controlling for sensory evaluation of these products. This data is being analyzed and will be used to create a manuscript that will be submitted for publication. Our research aims to help national and state policy makers, local and regional agricultural producers, agribusiness and rural communities. We also expect to contribute to the literature in related research areas. University of Michigan 1. Creating value for Michigan’s beef traceability system 2. Demand for plant based and cultured meat and dairy alternatives in China 3. Marketability of US (Hawaii and Puerto Rico) coffee in the world market University of Ohio 1. Focus on incentives for firms to maintain existing standards as private standards when public standards are reduced, e.g., food safety standards negotiated in possible US-UK FTA. 2. Looking at legal and economic issues relating to China’s use of industrial subsidies and targeting of SOEs. University of Virginia Listed below are the accomplishments of S-1072 Virginia team members Mary Marchant and Jason Grant, both of whom are members of the Center for Agricultural Trade at Virginia Tech's (VT's) College of Agriculture and Life Sciences along with Charlotte Emlinger and David Orden. 1. "Non-Tariff Measures and Agricultural Trade: Developing a Framework for Analysis" Funded by: Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2021 - Sep. 30, 2022; PI: Jason Grant; Co-PIs: Charlotte Emlinger, Mary Marchant, and John Beghin. $200,000 Description Non-tariff measures continue to impact the competitiveness of U.S. agricultural exports. Virginia Tech's Center for Agricultural Trade was awarded a new project with USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service to quantify the impact of certain non-tariff measures and developing a framework for analyzing the different channels by which these measures impact trade quantities an prices. 2. "Competitive FTA Scenarios, "Natural" Trading Levels, and the Role of Trade in Climate Change and Environmental Shocks" Funded by: Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), USDA, Performance Period: Sep 30, 2021-Sep 30, 2022; PI: J.H. Grant, Co-PIs: Alla Golub, Charlotte Emlinger, Mary Marchant, and Ford Ramsey, 2021-2022 Description Several large regional free trade agreements (FTAs) have recently been concluded, or are in the process of being ratified by member countries including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the region-to-region EU Mercosur agreement, and China's application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Transpacific Partnership (CPTPP; Korea and Taiwan have also indicated they intend to apply for membership). These large mega-regional trade agreements have the potential to affect the competitive position of United States agricultural exports. This project seeks to enhance our understanding of the impacts of competing FTAs on US agricultural exports using the VT-OCE Linked Livestock- Crop simulation model projected to 2030. Concurrently, the expanding trade chapter of the U.S.-China Phase One Trade Deal will expire on December 31, 2021. The second objective of this project is to evaluate existing distortions and natural trading levels between the US and China. Finally, this project will attempt to provide some preliminary empirical evidence of the sensitivity of trade to severe climate and weather shocks impacting production agriculture. All projects supported graduate students and their opportunities for training and professional development through faculty/student mentoring, and support for students and faculty to present project findings at professional meetings and to government agency officials. Graduate students supported by these projects were able to interact with USDA senior economists and trade policy negotiators in helping shape national and international agricultural policy. Training includes weekly meetings with faculty, culminating in the development of abstracts, grant proposals, and journal article manuscript preparation as well as scientific presentations. University of Connecticut New grants: National Institute of Food and Agriculture, AFRI Program: \DSFAS-CIN: Harnessing Mobility Big Data and Artifical Intelligence Through a Transdisciplinary Research Network in Food Production, Processing, and Consumption Systems," with Cristina Connolly, Suining He, Dongjin Song, Debarchana Ghosh and Tao Lu, Co-Principal Investigator (USD 1,000,000) National Institute of Food and Agriculture, AFRI Program: Evaluating the Impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on Agricultural and Food Trade: New Insights from Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning," with Caiwen Ding and Dongjin Song, Principal Investigator (USD 650,000)

Publications

University of Tennessee  1. Jensen, K.L., J.N. Yenerall, X. Chen and T.E. Yu. 2021. “United States Consumers’ Online Shopping Behaviors and Intentions During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 53(3):416-434. 2. Chen, C.R., T.E. Yu, and R.J.C. Fu. 2021. “Strategic Management for Community-Based Markets: from Consumers’ Perspectives and Experiences.” Sustainability, 13(10), 5469. 3. Jensen, K.L., D. Hughes, K.L. DeLong, C.O. Trejo-Pech, M.B. Gill. 2021. “Factors Influencing Tennessee Adults’ Craft Hard Apple Cidery Visit Expenditures and Travel Distance.” Journal of Food Distribution Research, 52(2): 1-23. 4. Jensen, K.L., K.L. DeLong, M. Gill, and D. Hughes. 2021. “Consumer Willingness to Pay for Locally Produced Hard Cider in the USA.” International Journal of Wine Business Research, 33(3): 411-431. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJWBR-06-2020-0029 5. C.N. Boyer, A.P. Griffith, K.L. DeLong. 2021. “Evaluating Optimal Purchasing and Selling Decisions of Beef Cattle Replacement Females.” Agricultural Finance Review, 81(3): 430-443. https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-08-2020-0118 6. Velandia, M., K. Jensen, K.L. DeLong, A. Wszelaki, and A. Rihn. 2020. “Tennessee Fruit and Vegetable Farmer Preferences and Willingness to Pay for Plastic Biodegradable Mulch.” Journal of Food Distribution Research, 51(3): 63-87. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/309030?ln=en 7. Muhammad, A, SA Smith, & JH Grant (2021) “Can China Meet its Purchase Obligations Under the Phase One Trade Agreement?” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13180 8. Muhammad, A, SA Smith, & TE Yu (2021) “COVID-19 and Cotton Import Demand in China” Agribusiness: An International Journal 37(1): 3-24. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21682freference. 9. Greear, EK, & A Muhammad (2021) “Tariff Elimination and the Competitiveness of Wine-Exporting Countries in Japan” Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. 50: 76-98. doi:10.1017/age.2020.25. 10. Muhammad, A, & K Jones (2021) “The End of the Trade War? Effects of Tariff Exclusions on U.S. Forest Products in China” Forest Policy and Economics 122: 102350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102350. University of Ohio 1. Eum, I. M. Sheldon and S. Thompson, “Product Quality in Food and Agricultural Trade: Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Trade Costs,” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 46(1), 2021. 2. M. Sheldon, “Reflections on a Career as an Industrial Organization and International Economist,” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 43(2), 2021.  3. C.K. Chow and I.M. Sheldon, “Understanding the Economic and Political Effects of Trump’s China Tariffs,” William and Mary Business Law Review, 12(3), 2021. 4. M. Sheldon, “The US’s Power-Based Bargaining and the WTO: Has Anything Really Been Gained?”, Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, forthcoming. 5. Heerman and I.M. Sheldon, “Sustainable Agricultural Production, Income and Eco-Labelling: What Can Be Learned from a Modern Ricardian Approach,” presented at EAAE sustainability seminar, and currently in review. 6. M. Sheldon, “If the US Steps Back from ‘Power-Based’ Bargaining: What are the Implications for Agricultural Trade?” Andersons Policy Bulletin, 15(1), August 2021. University of Michigan 1. Vroegindewey, R., R. Richardson, D.L. Ortega, V. Therieault, 2021. “Consumer and Retailer Preferences for Local Ingredients in Processed Foods: Evidence from a Stacked Choice Experiment in an African Urban Dairy Market”. Food Policy, 103 2. Signorini, G., DL Ortega, R.B. Ross, H.C. Peterson, 2021. “Heterogeneity in farmers’ willingness to produce bioenergy crops in the Midwest USA”. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 50: 367-393. 3. D. Ufer, Ortega, D.L., W. Lin, 2021. “What’s the Farmer Worth?”, Choices, 35(4)  Virginia Tech Sabine Duvaleix, Charlotte Emlinger, Carl Gaigné, Karine Latouche, Geographical indications and trade: Firm-level evidence from the French cheese industry, Food Policy, Volume 102, 2021. Charlotte Emlinger, Houssein Guimbard, Shipping the good agricultural products out: the differentiated impact of per-unit duties on developing countries, European Review of Agricultural Economics, Volume 48, Issue 3, July 2021, Pages 598–623 Balagtas, J.V., J. Cooper, and M.A. Marchant, editors, 2021. “Agricultural Market Response to COVID-19," Choices, Quarter 3. Available online: https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/agricultural-marketresponse- to-covid-19 Grant, J.H., K.A. Boys, and C. Xie. 2021. “A New President in the White House: Implications for Canadian Agricultural Trade,” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 69(1): 45-58 Ning, X., J.H. Grant and E.B. Peterson. 2021. “Estimating Structural Change in the Japanese Beef Import Market in the Wake of BSE: A Smooth Transition Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.307461 Grant, J.H., S. Arita, C. Emlinger, R. Johansson and C. Xie. 2021. “Agricultural Exports and Retaliatory Trade Actions: An Empirical Assessment of the 2018/19 Trade Conflict,” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 43(2): 619-640 Wieck, C. and J.H. Grant. 2020. “Codex in Motion: Food Safety Standard Setting and Impacts on Developing Countries’ Agricultural Exports,” Euro Choices, 20(1): 37-47 Sharma, A*, J.H. Grant, and K.A. Boys. 2021. ”Truly Preferential Treatment? Reconsidering the Generalised System of (Trade) Preferences with Competing Suppliers," Journal of Agricultural Economics, 72(2): 500-524 NCATSU 1. Yeboah, O., Saleem S., Victoria T. 2021. Assessing US Agricultural Export Under North American Free Trade Agreement: A Shift Share Analysis. Journal of Applied Business & Economics Vol. 23(6) 2021. 2. Yeboah, O., Saleem S., Michael W. 2021. AGOA: Economic and Political Effects on FDI flows into Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Applied Business & Economics Vol. 23(5) 2021. 3. Yeboah, O., Saleem S., Jamal M. 2021.Impact of AGOA on Agricultural Export Growth of Member Countries: A Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis. Journal of Applied Business & Economics Vol. 23(4) 2021. 4. Yeboah, O., Saleem S., Jamal M. 2021. Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic and Poverty on Food Insecurity: Yearly Spatial Analysis. Scientific Research Vol.12, No.4 5. Yeboah, O; Saleem S. 2020.The Influence of Climate Change on the Demand for Ethanol. Renewable Energy. 164 (2021); 1559-1565. Kansas State Yu, Jisang, and Gyuhyeong Goh, “Estimating Temperature Impacts on Perennial Crop Losses in California: Insights from Insurance Data.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, forthcoming Yu, Jisang, Daniel A. Sumner, and Hyunok Lee. "Premium rates and selection in specialty crop insurance markets: Evidence from the catastrophic coverage participation." Food Policy 101 (2021): 102079. University of Connecticut <div class="page" title="Page 2"> <div class="layoutArea"> <div class="column"> Steinbach, Sandro Exchange Rate Volatility and Global Food Supply Chains Sandro Steinbach,NBER Working Paper No. 29164, August 2021 Ahn, Soojung, Steinbach, Sandro COVID-19 trade actions in the agricultural and food sector, Journal of Food Distribution Research, 2021   </div> </div> </div>

Impact Statements

International markets account for a considerable portion of U.S. agricultural products sales thus our project serves U.S. producers and agribusiness by providing them updated and relevant information and analysis related to the impacts of domestic and international policies on trade. In the short term, our project outputs enhance the knowledge of U.S. agricultural producers and agribusiness regarding the potential impact of policies or regulations on marketing their products. In the medium term, U.S. producers and agribusiness could identify the potential markets and make more adequate investment decisions based on the knowledge provided from our outputs. Enhancing the knowledge of policy impacts on trade could also help producers and investors reduce the uncertainties and risk of counting on a single/dominant market and make a more comprehensive and long-term investment plan. In the long term, our study could benefit society by developing a more robust agricultural sector by improving the decision process and related financial condition of U.S. agricultural producers and agribusiness. Consumers will benefit from acquiring low-cost and diverse agricultural products when producers and agribusiness can allocate resources more effectively. In 2020/21, our focus was on the impacts of U.S. and foreign policies, regulations, market structures, and productivity on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment. The data used in those activities are primarily obtained from USDA or public accessed websites.

Date of Annual Report: 12/18/2022

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 12/12/2022 - 12/12/2022
Period the Report Covers: 12/01/2021 - 12/01/2022

Participants

Karen DeLong, University of Tennessee
Jason Grant, Virginia Tech
Lynn Kennedy, Louisiana State University
Andrew Schmitz, University of Florida
Andrew Muhammad, University of Tennessee
Sunghun Lim, Louisiana State University
Gopinath Munisamy, University of Georgia
Suzanne Thornsbury, University of Florida

Brief Summary of Minutes

Incoming President Dr. Karen DeLong brought meeting to order.

Introductions of the members followed.

Motion was introduced for Dr. Sunghun Lim of LSU to be the Incoming President. Motion was seconded. Motion passed unanimously.

Motion was introduced for the Fall meeting of this Hatch project to once again be joined with the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium meeting. Motion was seconded. Motion passed.

State reports were collected and briefly discussed.

It was discussed this group would consider submitting a joined track session to AAEA for 2024 presentation.

It was discussed this group would submit a conference proposal grant to USDA NIFA on issues related to trade.

The writing committee was created and consists of Drs. Steinbach, DeLong, Lim and Kennedy. The new HATCH project writing committee was tasked with meeting objectives outlined by Dr. Salassi's notes he sent to the meeting.

Immediate goals of the group is to write the new project.

Meeting was adjourned.

Accomplishments

Reporting Participants: E Kwan Choi, Iowa State University      Accomplishments: published one joint paper (2022), another joint paper last year (2021, but probably not reported) ____________   University Michigan State University   Reporting Participants David L. Ortega   Accomplishments   Policy Forums <ol> <li>WSJ Global Food Forum. June 2022, invited participant</li> <li>Michigan Agribusiness Association Outlook Forum. September 2022, participant</li> <li>Consumer Federation of America, National Food Policy Conference. September 2022, invited panelist</li> </ol> Select Popular Press and Outreach <h4> </h4> <h4>1.      Agence France-Presse (AFP)/ Barron’s: <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/how-has-surging-inflation-gripped-voters-ahead-of-the-midterms-01666923008">How Has Surging Inflation Gripped Voters Ahead of the Midterms?</a> October 27, 2022.</h4> <h4>2.      Vox: <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/13/23402361/inflation-food-cpi-prices">Why food keeps getting more expensive.</a> October, 13, 2022.</h4> <h4>3.      PBS NewsHour: <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/the-major-factors-driving-up-the-cost-of-food">The major factors driving up the cost of food.</a> October, 11, 2022.</h4> <h4>4.      The Detroit News: <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/retail/2022/10/12/detroit-struggles-to-improve-grocery-options/7895386001/">Food Fight: Detroit’s struggle to improve grocery options.</a> October 11, 2022.</h4> <h4>5.      CNN: <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/30/business-food/grocery-store-prices-food/index.html">Grocery store prices aren’t coming down anytime soon.</a> September 30, 2022.</h4> <h4>6.      Marketplace: <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2022/09/21/biden-pledges-addition-2-9-billion-in-aid-global-food-crisis/">Biden pledges an additional $2.9 billion in aid to help fight the global food crisis</a>. September 21, 2022.</h4> <h4>7.      Quartz: <a href="https://qz.com/why-higher-food-prices-could-be-here-to-stay-1849515372">Why Higher Food Prices Could be Here to Stay.</a> September. 9, 2022.</h4> <h4>8.      Michigan Live: <a href="https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2022/09/food-inflation-explained-through-a-chocolate-chip-cookie-recipe.html">Food inflation – explained through a chocolate chip cookie recipe</a>. September 5, 2022.</h4> <h4>9.      New York Times: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/09/dining/dinner-bill-restaurant-costs-inflation.html">Why the Dinner Tab Has Soared. Here are All the Reasons.</a> August 9, 2022.</h4> <h4>10.   Marketplace: <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2022/08/01/food-price-increases-show-signs-of-moderating/">Food Price Increases Show Signs of Moderating.</a> August 1, 2022.</h4> <h4>11.   Mashed: <a href="https://www.mashed.com/945853/how-costco-keeps-its-hot-dog-combo-price-consistent/">How Costco Keeps Its Hot Dog Combo Price Consistent</a>. July 30, 2022.</h4> <h4>12.   NPR: <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/06/28/1107185064/inflation-arizona-tea-food-costs-dollar-slice-costco-hotdog-loss-leaders">Inflation Killed the $1 Pizza Slice. Long Live the 99c Iced Tea.</a> June 28, 2022.</h4> <h4>13.   Gothamist: <a href="https://gothamist.com/news/food-insecure-new-yorkers-feel-the-squeeze-from-rising-grocery-prices">Food Insecure New Yorkers Feel the Squeeze from Rising Grocery Prices</a>. June 28, 2022.</h4> <h4>14.   Mashed: <a href="https://www.mashed.com/901480/the-unseen-reason-for-the-rising-price-of-food/">The Unseen Reason for the Rising Price of Food.</a> June 20, 2022.</h4> <h4>15.   Fox47News: <a href="https://www.fox47news.com/news/local-news/michigan-state-professor-discusses-why-food-prices-are-rising">Michigan State professor discusses why food prices are rising.</a> June 16, 2022.</h4> <h4>16.   CBC: <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6460194">Global food crisis fuelled by war in Ukraine could provoke unrest</a>. May 20, 2022</h4> <h4>17.   World Economic Forum: <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/increasing-food-prices-expert-explains/">Food prices: Why are they increasing and when will they go back down?</a> May 16, 2022.</h4> <h4>18.   Futurity: <a href="https://www.futurity.org/rising-food-prices-2737572/">When will Food Price go back down?</a> May 10, 2022.</h4> <h4>19.   Associated Press: <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-fires-ap-fact-check-7b524067956a38e0568cc15141bd56e1">Food plant fires fuel conspiracy theory</a>. May 3, 2022.</h4> <h4>20.   Quartz: <a href="https://qz.com/2159564/as-prices-rise-consumers-are-treating-themselves-with-snacks/">As prices rise, consumers are treating themselves with snacks</a>. April 27, 2022.</h4> <h4>21.   NPR: <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/16/1093189733/how-americans-are-adjusting-to-record-inflation">How Americans are adjusting to record inflation</a>. April 16, 2022.</h4> <h4>22.   NPR: <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/12/1092414592/the-rate-of-inflation-made-its-sharpest-spike-since-1981">The rate of inflation made its sharpest spike since 1981</a>. April 12, 2022.</h4> <h4>23.   NPR: <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/12/1092315132/inflation-keeps-getting-worse-is-a-recession-next">Inflation Keeps Getting Worse. Is A Recession Next?</a> April 12, 2022.</h4> <h4>24.   Politico: <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/16/bidens-supply-chain-canadian-railway-strike-00017533">Biden’s latest supply chain hurdle: A looming Canadian rail strike</a>. March 16, 2022.</h4> <h4>25.   Politico Pro: <a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2022/03/senators-press-trudeau-to-resolve-railway-strike-threatening-key-u-s-canada-energy-and-agricultural-trade-00017215">Senators press Trudeau to resolve railway strike threatening key U.S.-Canada energy and agricultural trade</a>. March 15, 2022.</h4> <h4>26.   Quartz: <a href="https://qz.com/2112901/most-americans-see-the-rise-in-food-prices-more-than-they-feel-it/">Why most Americans see the rise in food prices more than they feel it.</a> January 13, 2022.</h4> <h4>On-going projects</h4> <ol> <li>Effects of Misinformation on Consumer Food Choice Behavior.</li> <li>Creating value for Michigan’s beef traceability system</li> <li>Demand for plant based and cultured meat and dairy alternatives in China</li> <li>Marketability of US (Hawaii and Puerto Rico) coffee in the world market</li> </ol>   ___________________ University: Ohio State University   Reporting Participants: Ian Sheldon   Accomplishments:   <ol> <li>Revised and completed work on estiimation of trade elasticities using modern Ricardian model</li> </ol>   <ol start="2"> <li>Revised and completed work on impact of tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) on food quality</li> </ol>   <ol start="3"> <li>Revised and completed work on interaction between peace and preferential trade agreements (PTAs)</li> </ol>   <ol start="4"> <li>Multiple outreach efforts relating to Russian invasion of Ukraine, and its impact on global commodity markets</li> </ol>  ________________ University of Tennessee Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics   Reporting Participants <ol> <li>Edward Yu, Karen DeLong, and Andrew Muhammad</li> </ol> Accomplishments Participants will continue to research international trade and policy issues. The output/outcomes of their research include several publications and presentations that enhance academic and the public’s understanding of international trade and policy. Educational output occurs through the form of academic, Extension and popular press outlets. Intended Activities in the Next Year Drs. Yu and DeLong are members of an USDA NIFA AFRI grant about food waste and they will publish work from that project. Drs. DeLong and Muhammad and members of an USDA NIFA AFRI grant about US beef export markets and they will publish work from that project. Drs. Muhammad and DeLong are members of a group researching issues related to the infant formula shortage and will pursue publications in that area. _____________   University of Nebraska-Lincoln   Reporting Participants   Azzeddine Azzam     Accomplishments   Developed a structural dominant-duopoloy competitive-fringe model and applied it to the world soybean export market, where the US and Brazil are the dominant duopoly and the rest of soybean exporters are the fringe. Competition is not rejected.   The article contribute to developing empirical trade models with imperfect competition as part of objective 1b. __________ University Texas A&M University   Reporting Participants Kashi Kafle   Accomplishments We started this project entitled “Interlinkages between climate change, agriculture, and migration” in July 2022. This is a small project that aims to understand the role of climate change on migration of small-scale farmers in developing countries. The primary objective of this project is to document the relationship between climate change and migration among farming households in Uganda, a deveoping country in East Africa.   We conducted desk reviews of existing literature and rigorous analysis of the secondary data collected by the World Bank and the Uganda Bureau of Statistics. We also consulted with local experts in Uganda and presented the preliminary findings in three different scientific workshops, one each at the Univerisity of Minnesota, the University of New Mexico, and Texas A&M University. These activities helped us achieve the project objective of understanding the role of weather shocks on migration of small-scale farmers in a developing country setting.    Our target audience is researchers working in the area of climate change, migration, and international development, both in the United States and abroad. We presented the preliminary findings in three different US universities to more than 100 researchers. Our target audience benefitted by understanding how short-term weather shocks, which contribute to climate change in the long run, affect farmers' migration decisions. In the next several months, we plan to present these findings to researchers, development practitioners, and policymakers to highlight the importance of understanding the weather-migration relationship in designing targeted agricultural interventions in the future.   Our research is still being finalized, so we have not shared the findings and their implications with the broader public yet. Once the research is finalized, we plan to prepare a press release and a journal article to avail the research findings to the broader public in the US as well as in other countries across the globe.  ______________ University   University of Connecticut   Reporting Participants   Sandro Steinbach   Accomplishments   <ol> <li>Outreach efforts relating to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and its impact on global trade</li> </ol>   <ol start="2"> <li>Outreach efforts relating to the supply chain disruptions and U.S. agriculture</li> </ol>   <ol start="3"> <li>Research efforts related to agricultural trade and policy, foreign direct investment, and data science</li> </ol>  _____________ 2022 Multistate Hatch Project S1072 Georgia Report – Gopinath Munisamy   Presentations/media <ul> <li>Gopinath, M, “American Agriculture Needs Predictable and Equitable Trade Policies” Testimony to the U.S. Senate Agriculture Sub-Committee on Commodities, Risk Management and Trade, Washington DC, June 9, 2022. <a href="https://www.agriculture.senate.gov/hearings/agricultural-trade-priorities-and-issues-facing-americas-farmers">https://www.agriculture.senate.gov/hearings/agricultural-trade-priorities-and-issues-facing-americas-farmers</a></li> <li>Gopinath, M., “Commodity Market Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict” Understanding Ukraine, Deans’ Council Webinar, University of Georgia, March 17, 2022. (<a href="https://vimeo.com/ugalaw/review/690048420/19f4c57091">a recording of the event here.</a>)</li> </ul> <ul> <li>Gopinath, M. “Georgia’s Agricultural and Rural Economy Outlook” Ag Issues Summit, House-Senate Agriculture and Consumer Affairs Committee, Perry, Georgia, August 30, 2022.</li> <li>Interviewed for “Farmers Feeling the Effects of Russia-Ukraine Conflict" April 6, 2022 <a href="https://www.gfb.org/media-and-publications/news.cms/2022/1242/farmers-feeling-effects-of-russia-ukraine-conflict">https://www.gfb.org/media-and-publications/news.cms/2022/1242/farmers-feeling-effects-of-russia-ukraine-conflict</a></li> <li>Annual Meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association.</li> </ul> Khadka, S., and M. Gopinath. “Anomalies and Recoveries in Agricultural Trade” Selected Presentation, July 2022, Anaheim, CA.   Students and Trainees <ul> <li>Master’s – Ashish Adhikari and Bimal Karki (Spring 2022)</li> <li>PhD – Sei Jeong (Fall 2022)</li> <li>Fulbright-Nehru Post-Doctoral Fellow (Fall 2022, India)</li> </ul>

Publications

Michigan State University <ol> <li>Ufer, D., Ortega, D., Wolf, C., McKendree, M., Swanson, J. (2022). Getting Past the Gatekeeper: Key Motivations of Dairy Farmer Intent to Adopt Animal Health and Welfare-Improving Biotechnology. Food Policy, forthcoming.</li> <li>Herrington, C., Maredia, M., Ortega, D.L., Taleon, V., Birol, E., Sarkar, A.R., Rahaman, S. (2022). Rural Bangladeshi Consumers’ Willingness to Pay for Rice with Improved Nutrition via Zink Biofortified Rice and Decreased Milling Practices. Agricultural Economics, forthcoming.</li> <li>Ufer, D. J., Christensen, S. A., Ortega, D. L., Pinizzotto, N., & Schuler, K. (2022). Stamping out wildlife disease: Are hunter‐funded stamp programs a viable option for chronic wasting disease management?. Conservation Science and Practice, forthcoming.</li> <li>Maredia, M., Goeb, J., Ortega, D., Synt, N.L.K., Zu, A. M. (2022). Preferences for pandemic recovery policies: Perspectives of Myanmar agri-food system participants. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, forthcoming.</li> <li>Ortega, D., Sun, J., Lin, W. (2022). Identity labels as an instrument to reduce meat demand and encourage consumption of plant-based and cultured meat alternatives in China. Food Policy, 111, 102307.</li> <li>Ortega, D.L, Lin, W., Ward, P. (2022). Consumer Acceptance of Gene-Edited Food Products in China. Food Quality and Preference, 95, 104374.</li> <li>Ufer, D., Ortega, D.L, Wolf, C., Swanson, J., McKendree, M. (2022). Market Acceptance of Animal Welfare-Improving Biotechnology: Gene-Editing and Immunocastration in U.S. Pork”. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 47(2), 444-461.</li> </ol>   Iowa State University Yoonho Choi and E. Kwan Choi, “Why Exchange Rate Pass-Through Matters in Foreign Exchange Market, “ Economic Modelling, May 2022 (110), 105795    Yoonho Choi and E. Kwan Choi, “Selling High-Tech Inputs to the Enemy,” April 2021 (234), 108040    (I do not understand why page numbers are not given. There must have occurred a format change.)   University of Tennessee <ol> <li>Yenerall, J.N., K.L. Jensen, X. Chen, and E. Yu. 2022. “COVID-19 Risk Perception and Restaurant Utilization after Easing In-person Restrictions.” Food Policy, 107:102266, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102206">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102206</a>.</li> <li>Sharma, B., E. Yu, B.C. English, and C.N. Boyer. 2021. “Economic Analysis of Developing a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply Chain Incorporating with Carbon Credits: A Case Study of the Memphis International Airport.” Frontiers in Energy Research, 9:802, http://doi: 10.3389/fenrg.2021.775389.</li> <li>Jensen, K.L., J.N. Yenerall, D.W. Hughes, C. Trejo-Pech, and L. DeLong. 2022. “Demographics, Alcoholic Beverage Purchase Patterns, and Attitudes Driving Hard Cider Expenditures.” Journal of Food Products Marketing, 28(5):228-241.</li> <li>DeLong, K.L. and C. Trejo-Pech. 2022. “Factors Affecting Sugar-Containing-Product Prices.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 54(2): 334-356. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2022.12">https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2022.12</a></li> <li>Smith, K.V.1, L. DeLong, A.P. Griffith, C.N. Boyer, C. Martinez, S. Schexnayder, and R.T. Trout Fryxell. 2022. “Costs of Horn Fly (Diptera: Muscidae) Control in Tennessee and Texas, 2016.” Journal of Economic Entomology, 115(1): 371-380. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/toab239">https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/toab239</a></li> <li>Cheng, H., D.M. Lambert, L. DeLong, and K.L. Jensen. 2022. “Controlling for Inattention and Availability Bias in Attribute Premium Estimation for a Biobased Product.” Agricultural Economics, 53: 274-288. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12679">https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12679</a></li> <li>Muhammad, A, M Prince, KL DeLong, T Gill (2022) “Effects of Timing, Customer, and Location on Smallholder Broiler Sales in Rwanda” Journal of Applied Poultry Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japr.2022.100268</li> <li>Muhammad, A, & J Thompson (2022) “Whiskey, Brexit, and the Trade War” The International Trade Journal. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2022.2111006</li> <li>Muhammad, A, SA Smith, & JH Grant (2022) “Can China Meet its Purchase Obligations Under the Phase One Trade Agreement?” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 44: 1392-1408. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13180</li> <li>Muhammad, A, & A Countryman (2021) “Safeguard Measures and Fresh Produce Trade: The Case of U.S. Blueberry Imports” Q Open. qoab018. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoab018">https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoab018</a></li> </ol>   University of Georgia <ul> <li>Jeong, S., and M. Gopinath. 2022. “International Market Information and Agricultural Commodity Price Dynamics.” Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies (forthcoming).</li> <li>Wang, J. Chandrasekaran, F. Haberkorn, Y. Dong, M. Gopinath and F. A. Batarseh, "DeepFarm: AI-Driven Management of Farm Production using Explainable Causality," 2022 IEEE 29th Annual Software Technology Conference (STC), 2022, pp. 27-36,</li> </ul> doi: 10.1109/STC55697.2022.00013.   University of Connecticut <ol> <li>Heidi Schweizer, Sandro Steinbach and Xiting Zhuang (2022). “A Portrait of Firms that Trade in Meat Products,” Western Economics Forum, forthcoming.</li> </ol>   <ol start="2"> <li>Soojung Ahn, Dongin Kim and Sandro Steinbach (2022). “The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on Grain and Oilseed Trade,” Agribusiness: An International Journal, first published online.</li> </ol>   <ol start="3"> <li>A Carter, Sandro Steinbach and Xiting Zhuang (2022). “Supply Chain Disruptions and Containerized Agricultural Exports from California Ports,” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy (first published online).</li> </ol>   <ol start="4"> <li>Soojung Ahn and Sandro Steinbach (2022). “The Impact of COVID-19 Trade Measures on Agricultural and Food Trade,” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy (first published online).</li> </ol>   <ol start="5"> <li>Sandro Steinbach (2022). “Port Congestion, Container Shortages, and U.S. Foreign Trade,” Economics Letters, 213: 110392.</li> </ol>   Texas A&M   Kafle, Kashi and Yuanhang, Wang. 2022. “Do weather shocks induce migration among small-scale farmers? Evidence from Uganda”. Draft. In preparation for submission to American Journal of Agricultural Economics.   Ohio State University <ol> <li>Sheldon, I.M. 2022. “The US’s Power-Based Bargaining and the WTO: Has Anything Really Been Gained?” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 44(3): 1424-39.</li> </ol>   <ol start="2"> <li>Heerman, K., and I.M. Sheldon. 2022. “Sustainable Agricultural Production, Income and Eco-Labelling: What Can Be Learned from a Modern Ricardian Approach.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 44(4): 1614-36.</li> </ol>   <ol start="3"> <li>Sheldon, I.M. 2022. “Ukraine: The Breadbasket of Europe,” Origins: Current Events in Historical Perspective, Ohio State University.</li> </ol>   <ol start="4"> <li>Sheldon, I.M. 2022. “Filing WTO Violation and Non-Violation Complaints: A Possible Solution to China’s Market Access Commitments?”, Working Paper, Andersons Program in International Trade.</li> </ol>   <ol start="5"> <li>Chow, D.C.K., and I.M. Sheldon. Forthcoming 2023. “A Private Bargaining and Efficient Breach Approach to the Problem of U.S.-China Trade: Bringing a Non-Violation Case in the WTO.” Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law.</li> </ol>   University of Nebraska Lincoln   Azzam, A. and S. Dhoubhadel. 2022. "A Dominant-Duopoly Competitive-Fringe Model of the World Soybean Export Market." International Journal of Trade and Global Markets (in press).

Impact Statements

International markets account for a considerable portion of U.S. agricultural products sales thus our project serves U.S. producers and agribusiness by providing them updated and relevant information and analysis related to the impacts of domestic and international policies on trade. In the short term, our project outputs enhance the knowledge of U.S. agricultural producers and agribusiness regarding the potential impact of policies or regulations on marketing their products. In the medium term, U.S. producers and agribusiness could identify the potential markets and make more adequate investment decisions based on the knowledge provided from our outputs. Enhancing the knowledge of policy impacts on trade could also help producers and investors reduce the uncertainties and risk of counting on a single/dominant market and make a more comprehensive and long-term investment plan. In the long term, our study could benefit society by developing a more robust agricultural sector by improving the decision process and related financial condition of U.S. agricultural producers and agribusiness. Consumers will benefit from acquiring low-cost and diverse agricultural products when producers and agribusiness can allocate resources more effectively. Society will benefit from having a better understanding of quantifying the winners and losers of global trade. Further, given global supply chain disruptions ranging from COVID-19 to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this group provides relevant information to society regarding how these disruptions will lead to changes in agricultural input and output prices and how this impacts welfare.