Many rural communities across the western U.S. rely on the economic activities and supply of human capital, as well as the social community cohesion that results from ranching operations. Previously, economic analyses of rural ranching communities have quantified and evaluated outputs most frequently at either the ranch scale or the industry scale, while infrequently analyzing rangeland systems as interconnected (Phelps & Kelly, 2020; Hruska et al, 2017). For instance, common metrics such as the supply of calves to the domestic beef supply chain are important to understand production trends or supply and demand balance, but they miss the contributions of ranching to the place-based socio-economic systems that dominate large swaths of the rural western US (e.g., le Polain de Waroux, 2021, Huntsinger et al, 2014, and Plieninger et al, 2014). Moreover, among the extant microeconomic models of rangeland management, few have taken a perspective of analyzing the rangeland-community interconnections as an explicit element of modeling. Because many of these models do not incorporate the flows of resources between ranching operations and communities, this limits the ability to understand the complete picture of rural economic development, and the role that ranching operations play in the well-being of rural communities. 

A robust modelling framework is needed to understand the long-term viability of ranching in the context of complex tradeoffs of land use, economics, and social wellbeing.  This information is needed before the social-ecological systems of ranching decline to the point of no return. The ranching operations that rely on rangelands of the western U.S. face numerous threats to their long-term viability. The average age of operators has steadily increased, and many ranches are facing difficulty operating past the current generation. Ranching often has a significant cultural and historical significance for many communities, and the decline of this industry could lead to the loss of traditional knowledge and practices, as well as the disruption of local economies. Moreover, while the ecological benefits and drawbacks of grazing on rangeland ecosystems vary from region to region (Piipponen et al., 2022; Souther et al., 2020). in many regions, keeping working ranches prevents land fragmentation that would likely occur under further development pressures that are growing West-wide (Huntsinger and Sayre, 2007).  These important dynamics are often researched at isolated scales and/or in case-study approaches that do not allow a full understanding of landscape-level effects across broader regions, especially in the face of increasingly stochastic and unpredictable change (Narducci et al. 2019).

To evaluate these systems under increased pressure from drivers of change (e.g., land-use change, policy, climate) conceptualization and evaluation that considers the complexity and heterogeneity of the system with an appropriate modeling framework and vocabulary is more appropriate. We propose a multi-scale framework to analyze and describe the inter-relations of human systems and natural systems, in concert with the causes and effects of flows among ranches, communities, and regions. Flows of resources, information, and capital among ranches, communities, and regions can be thought to occur in an interconnected system that includes ranch-level outcomes, community economic development, and ecosystem services provisioning. 

Figure 1 below describes some of the interconnections between ranches and community economic development, as well as the provisioning of ecosystem services, that we propose to model with our multi-scale modeling framework. Example topics that this group may pursue include: 1) how public lands policy impacts private ranches and the communities that rely on them; 2) how climate projections will impact ranch viability in the western U.S., including how alternative management actions can lessen these impacts, including how goals of Green-House Gas (GHG)  net-neutrality will alter ranch- and community-level profitability and social welfare; and 3) how new technologies and management practices can be used to enhance ranch sustainability, and how adoption of these new technologies will transform local communities

 Payment for goods and services demanded by ranching operations can be a major source of income for rural communities, and ranches can provide the existence of open space, biodiversity, and other non-market benefits for communities. Rural communities also frequently provide the ability to create off-ranch income, which reduces financial pressure in the ranching operation. The entire interconnected system can also be at risk from exogenous impacts, particularly economic downturns at the state, country, or global scale. 

As shown in Figure 1, dollars and ecosystem services will be the primary currencies that we model. Using the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment framework as a guide, Table 1 outlines the range and types of core services generated in ecosystem services (Figure 1, brown box and associated arrows).  Assessment of these provisioned services is important across the various levels of analysis and assessing ecosystem services helps understand the contributions of rangelands to human well-being and livelihoods. For example, by evaluating the provision of forage for livestock grazing, water availability, and cultural services like tourism or recreation, it becomes possible to develop sustainable livelihood strategies that balance conservation and economic development goals.

Our research will further the disciplines of rangeland economics, rangeland ecology, and rangeland management, because a more complete understanding of the ecosystem services that are produced on rangelands and to whom they accrue is an important aspect of analyzing rangeland systems from a social perspective. Ecosystem services assessment depends on scale and the degree of site-specificity needed to analyze the benefits and tradeoffs.  In cases of rangelands -- often vast amounts of acreage, and provisioned services such as water quality downstream, wildlife habitat, and preventing wind erosion -- may not be directly observed or evident as public goods given the bulk of the population is not proximate to these systems.  As such, some perceive the core benefits from such services accrue primarily to private rangeland managers who steward vast amounts of these rangeland resources Further, as the distribution of private versus public rangeland evolves through the intermountain west and management potentially becomes disjointed through changes to land ownership, characterizing and understanding the clear delineation of ecosystem services becomes a useful framework for management through periods of change. In this context, it is vital to develop core social adaptation archetypes of rangelands – at ranch, community, and regional scales – similar to how others have applied this construct to communities affected by wildfire in the wildland urban interface (WUI) (Paveglio et al. 2015) or ecological restoration contexts (Hallett and Hobbs, 2020).  Archetypes will include assessed variability of identity, motives, and vulnerabilities relevant to shifts in demographics, impacts related to owner/operator decision-making affecting land-use change, and how rangeland managers orient to the services occurring (or not) from the landscape (Carroll and Paveglio 2016; Evers et al. 2019).

Another result of our research will be the ability to assess and compare pathways for sustainable development. Instead of only allowing economic forces to determine the decline of ranching, it may be more effective to support a transition towards resilient forms of ranching that can balance economic, social, and environmental factors. This can involve initiatives such as promoting alternative land management practices, assessing local markets for sustainable meat products, and providing support for small-scale and family-owned ranches. A transition towards sustainable ranching practices could support the long-term viability of rural communities, while also preserving important ecosystem services and cultural traditions. 

Formation of a Multistate Research Project will facilitate co-created experimental design and implementation among states to better understand both regional differences in responses to/outcomes of economic stressors as well as common themes of these threats, allowing us to show the ability (or lack thereof) of ranches to remain viable across the western U.S.. By taking a comprehensive approach that considers economic, environmental, and social factors, we can evaluate where and when support (be it financial or otherwise) is warranted for ranching.