Duration: 10/01/2025 to 09/30/2030

Administrative Advisor(s):

NIFA Reps:

Non-Technical Summary

Strong, adaptable produce businesses are important contributors to societal priorities for food, nutrition, health, and rural communities as identified by a broad group of government, academia, and industry stakeholders. The research proposed in this project is focused on the economics of innovations impacting supply and demand aspects of specialty crop sectors and food systems as well as potential policy dimension to address the identified needs. Outcomes will provide benefits for businesses, government agencies, and technical assistance providers who seek to improve specialty crop markets and food system performance.

Statement of Issues and Justification

The need as indicated by stakeholders

Innovations in specialty crop production and food systems are identified as a need by a broad group of government, academia, and industry stakeholders. A government report focused on research for food and agriculture noted that “the challenges that faced agriculture mid-20th Century were single-focus challenges to increase production, today’s challenges require high impact, transdisciplinary and convergent research” including a focus on technology and advancements for specialty crops (USDA, 2023). The NSF Technology, Innovation and Partnerships (TIP) Directorate inaugural roadmap indicates that global competitiveness hinges on harnessing technology's power to bridge long-term goals and productivity.

In academia, the Association of Public Land Grant Universities and the Experiment Station Committee on Organization and Policy—Science and Technology Committee identified needs in their 2019 Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture (https://bit.ly/2K2JNYh). Included were: a) competitive U.S. food and agricultural producers; b) economically and environmentally sound food and agricultural systems; c) supply chains that can adapt to unforeseeable shocks; and d) safe, healthy, and affordable foods.

Industry groups, such as the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA) identify similar needs. In the IFPA Future Trends Report, priorities identified included markets (e.g. labor, on-farm technology, biosecurity, trade), consumers (e.g. technology, price), and technology advancements (e.g. mechanization and automation, supply chain, food loss and waste, water). Similarly, the Specialty Crop Farm Bill Alliance identified scientific breakthroughs, technological innovation, and data-enabled decision-making as needs that must be addressed to drive long-term profitability for specialty crop industries (SCFBA, 2023).

In addition to these stakeholder needs, project members draw on their working relationships with industry associations and programs to frame research and extension activities, and future collaborative work. In 2025, S-1088 participants represented 23 states across the U.S., spanning the country from the Northeast to the West Coast. This widespread group of researchers is uniquely positioned to identify cross-cutting needs of U.S. stakeholders.

 Importance of the Work

Strong, adaptable produce businesses are important contributors to societal priorities for food, nutrition, health, and rural communities. Moving forward, innovation throughout all aspects of specialty crop food supply chains will be critical (Klerkx and Begemann, 2020; Western Growers, 2022). We focus our activities on the economics of innovation that impacts markets, supply chains, and policy dimensions for specialty crops and food systems.

Food:

For the past decade, overall consumer spending on food has steadily increased, with only a slight decrease during the 2009 recession and 2020 COVID-19 (USDA ERS, 2024). The total 2023 U.S. food expenditure was $2.6 trillion. Even with an overall upward trend, buying patterns can shift rapidly. COVID-19 impacted retail purchase patterns among produce categories (fresh, frozen, canned, dried) and retail purchase methods (online, in-store, delivery) (Jensen et al., 2021). These shifts in purchase patterns continue to impact food retailers, especially smaller retailers, who are less likely to participate in online food sales. Sales at food service outlets, including restaurants, schools, and hotels declined rapidly as consumers turned to buying fresh produce almost entirely through the retail channel (Chenarides, L. et al. 2021). but by 2023 expenditures on food-away-from-home had rebounded (USDA ERS, 2024). At the same time, there is evidence that the pandemic potentially solidified consumer interest in direct-to-consumer market outlets such as community supported agriculture (Hobbs, 2020).

A large percentage of retailers identify the produce department as one of the top three most successful in generating sales and driving traffic (Progressive Grocer, 2019). The popularity of fresh produce offers considerable potential for enhanced marketing revenues if producers can recognize and harness opportunities. Consumers continue to demand new foods, new characteristics, and foods produced in unique ways (Newton et al., 2020; Bir et al., 2019; Chen et al., 2018; Govindasamy et al., 2018; McFadden and Huffman, 2017; Rana and Paul, 2017). Although the U.S. agricultural market is currently dominated (in terms of volume) by foods produced with conventional practices, alternative production practices have emerged and the number of differentiated specialty crops continues to grow. For example, certified organic acreage increased by 189 percent to 3.5 million acres between 2000 and 2019 (Carlson et al, 2023).

Specialty crop growers and handlers must rapidly adjust production and marketing practices in response to new crops, evolving production practices, and food characteristics (both visible and unobservable) and to differentiate themselves. The result is a proliferation of specialty crop offerings in a sector that was already highly fragmented. For example, a collaboration between Washington State University researchers, tree fruit growers, and industry representatives resulted in a new apple variety (Cosmic Crisp) designed to fulfill consumer demand for sweet to tart taste ratio (Hollenbeck, 2019). Work in Colorado has contributed to elevating the visibility and market access of Pueblo peppers in cooperation with cultivar breeders and community food coalitions (Colorado Department of Agriculture and Colorado State University, 2022).

Nutrition and Health:

Availability, accessibility, and affordability of fruits and vegetables continues to be a U.S. public health concern. Fresh fruit and vegetable consumption has an important role in the efforts to protect individuals against serious and costly chronic diseases such as obesity, heart disease, type 2 diabetes (CDC, 2018; CDC, 2020). A majority of consumers share concerns about fruit and vegetable product availability and quality, caloric and nutritional sufficiency, and product safety. Layered upon this, consumer tastes, preferences, and values shape purchase and consumption decisions. This has resulted in the multiplying of food production, process, and handling standards, certifications, and labels with claims concerning production characteristics, geographic origin, organic status, and other attributes. The use of these voluntary labelling programs enables firms to transform commodities into high value differentiated food products.

Even though consumers are currently eating more fresh fruits and vegetables per capita than in 1970, the average U.S. diet is still not aligned with the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans for fruit and vegetable consumption (Stewart and Hyman, 2019; USDA, ERS, 2020; CDC, 2018). Government efforts to increase fruit and vegetable consumption continue (USDA, ERS, 2020; USDA FNS, 2019; Minor and Perez, 2018; Cook, 2011). An example of a market model trying to promote access to local and healthy foods is Fresh Stop Markets (FSMs). FSMs are “pop-up” farm fresh markets in public spaces in food-insecure neighborhoods to provide local fresh produce on a sliding scale based on income. Evaluating farmers' willingness to sell produce through FSMs is crucial for assessing the replicability of the model in other regions of the country. Veggie Rx-type programs are also emerging, bringing stronger connections to produce, food lifestyles, and wellness together with a need to link market innovations with wellness research and practice. (Rossi and Woods, 2021, 2024; Biddle et al, 2023).

Rural Communities:

Specialty crops include a myriad of diverse commodities, markets, and supply chains– many of which are individually small in terms of national acreage or farm numbers. Yet, in aggregate, specialty crops production contributed nearly $75 billion to the total U.S. agriculture value of $355 billion in 2020 (USDA ERS, 2022) and the sector provides substantial local and regional economic contributions (Raszap Skorbiansky et al, 2021). When compared with grains, specialty crop markets tend to be “thin” with relatively few buyers and/or sellers and a high degree of price variability. Thus, they are typically fast-moving and high-risk (Hadacheck et al, 2022). Economic evaluation of emerging innovations to support these industries is needed to maintain profitability and robust local communities. Global competition is fierce. Although the overall U.S. agricultural trade balance has been positive for the past three decades, the first negative balance of $1.3 billion was recorded in 2019 . In contrast the U.S. specialty crop trade balance has been consistently negative for the past two decades (USDA ERS and FSA, 2024; USDA, ERS, 2024). Domestic fresh fruit and vegetable production have decreased significantly since 2000 (Young and Ribera, 2024) even as demand increased. Between 2000 and 2022 fruit imports increased from 36.6 to 54.8 percent of total U.S. supply and imported vegetables as a share of U.S. supply increased from 9.5 to 29.3 percent (Young and Ribera, 2024).

An often cited priority concern impacting the supply side of the U.S. fresh produce industry is labor availability and affordability (Hertz and Zahniser, 2013; Richards, 2018; Calvin and Simnitt, 2022; Eisele and Ohlemeier, 2024). The COVID-19 pandemic showed that disruptions to the availability of agricultural labor can have serious implications on the supply (and price) of food products. Because fruits and vegetables heavily depend on agricultural labor, any event that causes a large share of workers to become unavailable will significantly affect the produce supply (Richards, 2018; Rutledge and Merel, 2023). Therefore, it is important to understand how labor disruptions could impact rural communities and how markets adjust to these disruptions in the short and long term.

Technical Feasibility

Members of this committee have a long history of building industry and government partnerships to address research and extension priorities for specialty crop markets. Past projects and publications illustrate their ability to secure competitive grant funding, obtain necessary data, and develop case studies or other analyses that are appropriate. Every research approach (e.g., survey, experimental, analysis of retail scanner or other secondary data, simulations) has challenges and limitations. A significant value of working together is that the team members can give and receive feedback on data collection, compare the characteristics of specialty crop supply chains across states, leverage our collective resources to respond to emerging and pressing research needs, and collaboratively solve problems for the benefit of stakeholders in our respective states.

To achieve our goals, we may encounter barriers such as decreased funding and institutional support for some research and extension activities due to financial and staffing shortages at key government partner agencies (e.g., USDA NIFA, USDA ERS). That said, as researchers, we are problem solvers and adaptable as needs emerge. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, S-1088 members in multiple states mobilized to support specialty crop supply chains and other agricultural producers through collaborative research initiatives and integrated outreach partnerships with industry organizations, non-profit organizations, and state and federal agencies.

Advantages of a Multistate

Specialty crop supply chains that connect consumers and producers take many different forms and present a variety of unique research needs. Inter-state collaboration offers significant benefits, and a continuing multistate effort to facilitate coordination is desperately needed. Programs focused on economic considerations of fruit and vegetable production and marketing have historically received less attention relative to commodity crops or meat animal production. Many agricultural and/or applied economics programs have one, very few, or no faculty members focused on these products. Given limited human resources, states face research and extension capacity constraints when trying to respond to the plethora of specialty crop sectors and issues that need to be addressed.

Although they may differ in their details, economic and supply chain challenges for individual fruit and vegetable production and marketing are often similar within regions. Conducting research and developing materials through collaborative efforts or obtaining information and resources from another nearby state, and adapting it to local circumstances, offers a more efficient approach to this work. Furthermore, as fruit and vegetable production and processing are seasonal, many industry stakeholders have a presence in several states, resulting in S-1088 members overlapping in the industry stakeholders they support. Finally, consumer demand assessments frequently include a broader geographic area than a single state as sales are widespread (nationally and internationally).

A particular advantage of multistate efforts focused on specialty crops is the ability to coordinate and share data. Data, core to economic research, is notably sparse for specialty crops (Johnson, 2024) and current S-1088 members often collaborate on data collection. For example, the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey, conducted by members from the University of Illinois and Purdue University, monitors public perceptions of issues relevant to the politics of the food system, including topics relating to produce. Over time, more than 10,000 U.S. consumers have been surveyed as a part of this effort. Results have led to the publication of 31 outreach reports with more than 30 media appearances. S-1088 members also collected data from households regarding their food shopping behaviors and household food waste to determine the relationship between household time use, food waste quantities, and the value of their food waste. Separately, online and telephone survey data was collected to determine how households that are food insecure or live in limited access food environments value attributes of online grocery shopping services. Members investigated if households' self-reported use of or barriers to using online grocery influenced their valuation or attributes such as delivery speed and window, refund policy, and hypothetical programs such as a certified picker and protective produce packaging that are designed to encourage the purchasing of fruits and vegetables online.

Our long-term goal continues to be referred to as the leading group of academics that offers economic information and data-driven results about the impact of technology, consumer preferences, and other supply chain considerations on specialty crop markets in the United States. We have a long history of answering the most pressing economic, marketing, and policy questions facing specialty crop markets and our members have contributed to new knowledge in this arena at the state, national, and international levels. Pooling expertise and leveraging the impact of our deliverables through high-profile venues will allow us to maximize impact on a broad-based societal issue such as economics of innovation in the specialty crop food supply chains.

Three selected examples to illustrate benefits from the successful collaboration that occurred in the current S-1088 project follow:

COVID-19:

COVID-19 had profound impacts on food systems, both for short-term adjustments and long-term structural change. Many S-1088 members collaborated to provide research and extension on high-profile needs including impacts on  online marketing of food, agritourism and direct marketing events , and local and regional food systems. Multiple S-0188 members participated in a local food systems response project to rapidly gather data from consumers and industry and share adjustment strategies across sectors in response to COVID-19. A local food vitality index was developed to help inform specialty crop supply chain actors about food marketing channel development (Rossi and Woods, 2023; Rossi et al, 2020). Several members contributed to articles published in a special issue of Applied Economics and Policy Perspectives that highlighted strategies and best practices that allowed local and regional food businesses to stay viable during the pandemic.

Labelling

Product labels convey information to consumers, particularly focused on production practices that are not directly observable. A better understanding of food labeling strategies offers significant benefits to firms involved in food manufacturing and processing, as well as researchers who examine factors affecting linkages to nutrition and health outcomes. Understanding consumer preferences is vital for understanding the future market of products grown using specific practices. Multiple S-1088 members conducted research on labeling strategies. For example, the impact of color-coded Nutrition Facts Panels (NFP) on consumer behavior to reveal new insights into label effectiveness in guiding healthier food choices of snacks and fresh produce. Another project focused on increasing grower knowledge of potential benefits from labeling products produced with best management practices as well as increased consumer knowledge. Members from multiple states evaluated aspects of state labeling programs (e.g., Grow LA, KY Proud). Members from Washington, Mississippi, and Texas collaborated to assess the impacts of labeling on purchase intention for blueberries and cranberries. Members from California and Utah evaluated consumer reactions to labels for local independent food co-op promotions and consumer preferences for specialty/artisan bakery goods. At Colorado State, researchers are studying the incentives of food retailers to support investments in innovative food assistance access programs and best practices for retailers to support new market or production practices.

Wildfires, Vineyards, and Grapes:

West coast wildfires impacted specialty crops across the region, particularly the grape and wine industry. The S-1088 project convened a special symposium held during the 2023 SAEA meetings on this issue with project members from Oregon, California, Utah, and Kentucky discussing the economics of risk, market loss measurement, agritourism considerations, and strategies for risk mitigation in the event of future fires. The specialty crop industry in the U.S. is characterized by high value enterprises with adjacent enterprises like agritourism, food processing, land development for residence. The S-1088 project provided a mechanism to bring economists together to discuss the unique, complex, and economically significant market issue and policy response that would otherwise prove difficult.

Likely Impacts

With its multistate focus, the research generated by S-1088 members can reach all aspects of fruit and vegetable production, processing, marketing, and consumption. Outcomes of the proposed project objectives will provide benefits for businesses, government agencies, and technical assistance providers who seek to improve performance with better information and assessment of areas where markets could be more efficient or effective. The research outcomes generated by S-1088 will be a valuable input to improve the ability of the government, academic, and industry programs to develop products that target consumer preferences and needs. Our work will provide research-based information on the benefits and cost of participating in alternative marketing channels, as well as the effectiveness of policies to address remaining barriers for participation. Results can enhance supply chain effectiveness by providing evidence about the methods, policies, and organizational structures that yield the best outcomes for producers, consumers, and marketing channel intermediaries. In partnership with industry, government, and non-profit organizations, we will facilitate and evaluate new marketing channels for specialty crops.

New or differentiated specialty crops and production practices continue to emerge at an ever-increasing pace. Project team members will develop and update studies related to marketing issues that affect both producers and consumers, including studies which assess producer acceptance and willingness to use production/processing practices, novel technologies that address consumer needs; short- and long-term costs and benefits of adopting innovations at the farm and industry levels; impacts from policy and industry-led programs; global supply, trade, and consumer preferences; consumer demand for various products attributes; and supply chain innovations.

Related, Current and Previous Work

An overview of REEport Search

Searches were conducted using several different key terms, including produce, marketing, supply chains, and consumer demand. Results showed many complementary studies to the proposed project, with a significant share in the states (and with partners) that also participate in this project:

• Specialty Crops – 301 active projects (188 internal to USDA, 117 focused on crop protection and management)
• Specialty Crop Economics – 30 active projects (12 were members of S-1088; 6 internal to USDA)
• Produce Supply Chains – 8 active projects (6 internal to USDA)
• Produce Supply Chain Economics – 7 active projects (4 focused on bioenergy)
• Produce Markets- 308 active projects (180 formula funding, 63 food insecurity, 6 capacity building)
• Fresh Produce Supply Chains – 3 active (3 internal to USDA)
• Consumer Demand – 203 active (97 internal to USDA; 10 were members of S-1088)
• Specialty Crops and Consumer Demand – 1 active
• Fresh Produce and Health – 4 active (4 internal to USDA)
• Specialty Crops and Novel Technology – 3 active (3 internal to USDA)

Several active projects may be useful for us to interact with or collaborate with, as our work progresses; however, we did not identify a project that has the focus and breadth of coverage that we can achieve through our multi-state efforts. There are commonalities with other regional research committees in the REEport system. When looking closely at the projects that center on topics similar to S-1088, we found that most are related to health aspects of specialty crops, supply chains, or production practices. There are not many projects covering consumer demand or novel technologies, therefore this is a critical research gap filled by S-1088. We are likely to interact with members of these projects, as these groups might be interested in exploring the demand implications related to the production practices and technologies they are exploring, as well as the relative costs and benefits of adopting these practices and specific technologies at the farm level. By strengthening the connection of projects in this way, we are helping expand the impacts of the above mentioned projects. We will collaborate with members of other projects in specific publications and other project outputs when appropriate.

Research by previous S-1088 committee members

Members of S-1088 are very active in research and extension efforts that provide answers and solutions to real-world questions facing stakeholders in the specialty crop industry. They disseminate this information to a wide community of producers, other supply chain participants, and policymakers. Between 2020 and 2024, S-1088 members obtained 71 grants that resulted in the authorship of 247 refereed journal articles, along with 256 outreach industry presentations, 204 extension/outreach industry publications, 23 books or book chapters, 29 refereed conference proceedings, plus multiple academic presentation, blog posts, and podcasts. Given the complexity of issues addressed, the extent to which these outputs alone have increased economic profitability for domestic fruit and vegetable producers and marketers cannot be determined. However, our contributions support the adaptation of producers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers to new market dynamics and advance the assessment of outcomes. In addition to the examples provided above, selected examples of S-1088 research related to the markets, supply chains, and policy dimensions of specialty crops and food systems are shared below.

Through professional development workshops and producer conferences led by S-1088 at the University of Tennessee, practical knowledge among fruit and vegetable producers and Extension agents was increased to assist growers in making more informed decisions about whether to transition from polyethylene (PE) mulch to biodegradable mulches (BDM). The team provided information about the factors influencing the economic feasibility of adopting BDM to 20 producers from various states at a virtual conference and 30 Extension agents from Connecticut, New York, and New England regions during a professional development workshop. Results successfully increased awareness among manufacturers about farmers’ willingness to pay for BDM, and awareness among policymakers about the economic incentives that might be required to increase BDM adoption and reduce potential pollution associated with the use of PE mulches.

S-1088 members regularly coordinate efforts to provide updated farm management information for use in farming operations for both new and emerging sectors. For example, members have provided economic information on commercialization and adoption of new specialty crop cultivars vital for long-term development of a viable industry. Additional joint research has focused on soil issues in high tunnels and impacts of season-extension and vertical farming, and dynamic controlled atmosphere storage production practices in farm operations. Multiple S-1088 members developed enterprise budgets that are provided free of charge to the public. Sensitivity risk-rated enterprise budgets were developed in Georgia (a State that produces over 35 different vegetables and 12 different commercial fruits and tree nuts) to evaluate changes in input costs and impacts on growers profit margins. At Washington State University, 22 enterprise budgets (five for conventionally produced apples in 2020, three for pears, four for sweet cherries, two for organically produced apples, four for blueberries, and four for conventionally produced apples in 2024) were developed. Enterprise budgets provide information farmers need for their day-to-day farm management decisions and obtaining loans. They also support transdisciplinary research. For example, investigating adopting marker-assisted plant breeding provided useful insights on the plant breeding characteristics that would define the costs and revenues for academic plant breeding programs of adopting this new technology.

Rapidly emerging policy and market factors create challenges for economists to focus singularly on their own states. The S-1088 project provides a platform to quickly convene project partners to share expertise on this topic and to better frame more impactful industry support. A Washington State University project elicited information on H-2A workers’ preferences to offer critical guidance for policymakers on the job attributes workers prioritize. The goal is to increase satisfaction of H-2A workers and help support long-term sustainability of the H-2A program. Research projects by Mississippi State University and the University of Florida simulated how streamlining the H-2A program could increase profits for fresh produce farms and reduce crop waste, and they also examined the potential impacts of H-2A hires on the domestic labor market. University of Tennessee members developed outreach presentations, publications, and a Podcast to educate specialty crop farmers about the different foreign nonimmigrant worker visa programs that could help them better navigate labor challenges. The S-1088 will present a special session on labor economics in specialty crops for the 2025 AAEA meetings involving produce industry leaders together with project members from Florida, Washington, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky.

Several members engaged in research concerning farmer adoption of specific new production and harvesting innovations to address challenges and enhance farm viability. Members from Washington State University and Texas A&M worked on the economic impacts of pests in specialty crops.  Similar work was conducted by members at the University of Georgia, which analyzed the impact of white flies on the fresh food industry. Members from Ohio State and Cornell Universities completed a project on the economic impacts of citrus greening disease in partnership with the USDA ERS. University of Tennessee members conducted research on the adoption of automation technologies in the nursery industry. Members in Oregon and Pennsylvania engaged in research related to the wine industry including how climate change affects the wine industry through rootstock quality and other impacts on grape production and the use of cover crops in wineries. Members from Cornell engaged in research concerning the role of fuel taxes applied in the shipping industry for agricultural products. This work determined that fuel taxes need to be higher than previously thought to have a meaningful impact on shipping speed and fuel use for bulky agricultural products.

S-1088 members from Colorado State University showed that the promotion of local markets and policies that allow flexibility in the regulatory system appear correlated with food manufacturing start-ups. This is important evidence for those who believed (but had little proof) that local and regional food systems could be a potential economic development strategy. In addition, this group found initial evidence that having food retailers and farmers markets align with local food producers increased the economic activity catalyzed by those programs. Additional research, supported by the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR) found the acquisition of school meals was related to overall household healthfulness. Recently, Colorado State University was selected to coordinate the $30 million USDA Regional Food Business Center for the Northwest and Rocky Mountain states of CO, ID, OR, WA, WY, and MT with technical assistance that significantly leverages market research from this committee’s past and current work.

Willingness-to-pay was evaluated for multiple specialty crops and their attributes, and the technologies used to produce them. Members from Cornell and Washington State elicited consumer opinions about new breeding technology for grapes and consumer willingness-to- pay for foods that have applied technologies. Texas A&M members completed research regarding the influence of social status, physical activity and socio-demographics on willingness-to-pay for organic foods. Utah State and Purdue University members collaborated on a project to research consumer preferences and willingness-to-pay for organic bakery products. A Mississippi State University member, along with co-authors from the University of Idaho and West Virginia University, evaluated how consumers' risk preferences influence their willingness-to-pay for food safety attributes in locally grown fresh produce.

Utah State University members provided fresh produce pricing information and developed and delivered curricula focused on enhancing grower ability to determine the market value of their products. Curricula was delivered to approximately 900 growers and farmers' market managers through four one-day workshops, one large multi-state conference, and two field day/growing workshops, as well as through the USU Extension website. After one year, follow up evaluations with program participants found that 75% had increased their customer base as well as their sales, 66% had adjusted their prices for each market served, and 33% added new markets to their sales efforts.

University of Kentucky members developed analyses related to local marketing channels with particular emphasis on specialty crops. They collaborated with partners across the U.S. South to look at local food system vitality from a resident consumer perspective at a community level (urban vs rural) as well as across the state of Kentucky. Additional research explored employee adoption of CSA vouchers for produce as part of an employer wellness program in collaboration with UK Wellness and the National CSA Innovation Network. A recent best-worst values survey identified divergent values between voucher explorers (strongly prioritizing price) and voucher redeemers (strongly prioritizing quality and health). This helped frame an employee peer support program and strategies for targeted marketing to diverse segments.

Objectives

1. • Analyze the development and adoption of novel technologies across the specialty crop supply chain from production to post-consumption.
   
2. • Evaluate emerging (or anticipated) demand trends and drivers for buyers and consumers of specialty crops.
   
3. • Inform policy response and analyze potential impacts of new programs and policies on specialty crop supply chains and food systems.
   

Methods

In this section, we discuss methods that correspond to each of the preceding objectives.

Objective 1: Analyze the development and adoption of novel technologies across the specialty crop supply chain from production to post-consumption.

We will address economic and behavioral aspects of the emergence of novel technologies relevant to specialty crop supply chains, including producer acceptance and willingness to use production and processing practices, novel technologies, and technological innovations that address consumer needs. We will also evaluate the short- and long-term costs and benefits of adopting these practices and technologies at the farm and industry levels. In addition, we will explore the relative benefits and costs to producers of government and industry-led programs, as well as the impact these programs have on production and technology adoption decisions, global supply, trade, and consumer preferences. Although we will cover a variety of topics, we will include a particular emphasis on labor issues faced by the produce industry. The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the importance of labor on the production of fruit and vegetables, forcing slight temporary modifications for the H-2A program (Velandia, Wszelaki, and Bailey, 2020) to guarantee an appropriate labor supply to avoid additional disruptions in the fruit and vegetable supply chain. Feasibility of adoption of mechanization and automatization solutions as a short and long-term alternative to solve labor issues, including potential adjustments or disruptions in produce supply chains (e.g. Charlton et al., 2025).

We will use a broad range of methods, including experimental economics with choice experiments and other survey methods, like the ones used in Velandia et al. (2020a, 2020b) to evaluate the factors correlated with the use of alternative production practices among fruit and vegetable farms and Mulibi et al. (2019) to assess the factors influencing the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices; partial budget analysis (Velandia, Wszelaki, and Galinato, 2019); feasibility studies; risk assessment; and econometric analyses using data collected from surveys and other sources.

Partial budget analysis and feasibility studies will use sensitivity risk-rated enterprise budgets that depict changes in input costs (e.g., variable costs, harvesting and marketing costs, and fixed costs) to evaluate impacts on profit margins. Components of these budgets will include: a) scale-appropriate information that addresses different farm sizes and different targeted customers; b) revenue streams that are closely linked to willingness-to-pay studies to highlight how changes in consumer demand affect farm-level profitability; and c) interactions between biophysical, climatic, and management factors and the costs of production. When available, we will combine field trials, on-farm experiments, and secondary data to develop deterministic budgets (Velandia, Wszelaki, and Galinato, 2019; Fonsah et al., 2018; Kaninda et al., 2018; Ahmadiani et al., 2016). We will also use stochastic budgeting to analyze the risk associated with producer’s decisions (Awondo et al., 2017).

 

Objective 2: Evaluate emerging (or anticipated) demand trends and drivers for buyers and consumers of specialty crops.

We will use a variety of demand analysis methods to understand and predict consumer behavior in the specialty crop markets of interest, including forecasting, measurement, and testing the impact of policy or marketing strategy changes on demand. Demand estimation and forecasts are important for predicting future firm or aggregate market sales and growth, firm inventory planning, and revenue and profit consequences of alternative marketing strategies (e.g., pricing strategies) and can be used to understand consumer reactions to novel products or changing market conditions. Analyses focused on measurement using observed data such as consumer welfare, beliefs, risk, or other preferences can be structural, with explicit assumptions on preferences and information on consumer characteristics (i.e., demographic information, beliefs, preferences), or impose minimal structure such as experiments which use randomized control trials with a marketing intervention as the treatment. A third option is to use non-parametric models of demand. When combined with information on exogenous variation in demand, non-parametric approaches can address causal effects with minimal assumptions (“causal-effects” or “reduced-form” analyses). Finally, analyses may be focused on testing or evaluating the impact of policy, marketing strategy, or tactic changes on consumer demand for raw or processed fruit and vegetable products. While randomized experiments are ideal, simple models that exploit exogenous variation are also used for these analyses (Chintagunta and Nair, 2010). Sensitivity testing is often used to assess if the results are robust to model assumptions.

Much of the consumer demand analyses that will be undertaken by S-1088 members will be incorporated in larger interdisciplinary research projects or have important interdisciplinary implications. A variety of research techniques can be used to offer insights into consumer preferences and tradeoffs, which, in turn, can inform the development of new production practices, plant varieties, and fruit and vegetable products, and marketing techniques. Economic experiments, for example, can make use of sensory evaluations to understand how much consumers value taste, mouthfeel, and other palatability attributes, and preferences can adapt to repeated exposure (experience).

 

Objective 3: Inform policy response and analyze potential impacts of new programs and policies on specialty crop supply chains and food systems.

S-1088 members will engage in both qualitative and quantitative analysis. Descriptive assessment of current fruit and vegetable market structure and production trends can provide a benchmark for evaluation of changes in marketing strategy, either ex-ante or ex-post (e.g., Jablonski, Sullins, and Thilmany McFadden, 2019). Case studies, anecdotal evidence, literature reviews, qualitative analyses, and econometric analyses are all tools likely to be employed in descriptive models. Econometric analyses can also be employed to evaluate causal inference (e.g., Boys and Fraser 2019; Cleary et al. 2019; Plakias, Demko and Katchova 2019). Simulation methods may adopt game theoretic techniques to provide an analysis of strategic interaction between agents in marketing channels (e.g., Rickard et al. 2018). Results will contribute to a better understanding of the underlying market structure and can increase the multi-state research effort by transferring insights to other cases, firms, or industries.

A wide variety of reduced-form and structural econometric methods will also be used by S-1088 members to analyze primary data and secondary data collected from food system stakeholders to answer important questions and test key hypotheses related to this objective. New primary data will be collected via surveys, and research will facilitate the collection of transaction data from specialty crop marketing venues, including farmers’ markets and produce auctions. Also, members will continue to develop and update new data products that can be used in a variety of analyses by all of our S-1088 members. Simulation models calibrated with data on trade flows, agricultural production, marketing practices, and other variables will be used by researchers to conduct ex-ante analyses to understand the possible impacts of policies or other shocks that may affect specialty crop marketing channels.

Measurement of Progress and Results

Outputs

• disseminate research results to academic, government, and supply chain stakeholder audiences via: (a) a diverse series of publications (e.g., journal articles, case studies, industry reports, fact sheets, extension bulletins, online publications, and webinars); (b) decision tools and policy briefs; (c) integrated data series and market databases that provide market assessment and coordination tools for stakeholders; (d) presentations at professional, industry, and extension meetings; and (e) social media (e.g. Podcast) as appropriate. Comments: We will submit a proposal for a special issue to Choices, the Journal of Agribusiness, the International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, or the Journal of Food Distribution Research in year three, and at least two other "theme" issues in the agricultural and applied economics or agribusiness fields over the term of the project. Other collaborative publications will focus on local and regional specialty crop supply chains, emerging markets, specialty crop quality and safety, and the role of specialty crops in relation to health and wellness.
• collaborate on and distribute survey instruments, experimental auction scripts, and other research tools to ensure all our members are engaged in “best practices” and to enable cross-state comparisons in our research Comments: We will prepare and submit at least one multi-state grant proposal to a USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture program based on one of the team’s specific objectives.
• develop joint proposals for organized symposia Comments: We will develop joint proposals for organized symposia through the Specialty Crop Economics; Agribusiness Economics and Management; Community and Regional Economics; Extension; Food and Agricultural Marketing Policy; Labor Economics, or Food Safety and Nutrition track sessions at future Agricultural & Applied Economics Association meetings, and regularly present our findings at the Food Distribution Research Society meetings, which generally coincide with the S-1088 annual meeting.

Outcomes or Projected Impacts

• generate new insights about costs and benefits associated with various aspects of innovation and specialty crop production, demand, and supply chains
• enhance and facilitate coordination and sharing of best practices among specialty crop supply chain participants
• provide actionable recommendations that can be used by policymakers and supply chain stakeholders to improve outcomes for specialty crop producers, consumers, and supply chain businesses.

Milestones

(2026):Propose at least one track session for submission to the 2026 Agricultural and Applied Economics Annual Meeting and submit at least one proposal for a topical issue for publication in Choices relevant to project objectives

(2027):Develop ideas for a special issue journal devoted to one of our three identified objectives and at least one symposia or activity to disseminate research results to relevant stakeholder groups outside academia.

(2027):Members will frame at least one coordinated project by the Fall 2028 meeting as the basis for proposals to be developed.

Projected Participation

View Appendix E: Participation

Outreach Plan

Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals, extension publications, trade publications, and popular press publications, and will be made available on the internet. Committee members will make a special effort to participate in meetings reaching new stakeholder groups including emerging crops, new and beginning producers, and small and mid-sized producers and supply chain businesses. A broad-based outreach plan will be developed to assist trade organizations, producers and supply chain businesses with accessing and using the embers’ applied research results. Business models, marketing strategies, and decision tools informed by committee members’ research will provide producers and supply chain businesses with the ability to assess the economic costs and benefits of adopting different production, marketing and business strategies and distribution approaches. In addition, fact sheets produced by members will help provide accessible information about applied research outcomes and enable specialty crop stakeholders to make evidence-based decisions. Extension publications will be developed, published, and posted on the internet. Possible online venues for such factsheets and publications, include members’ respective web pages, the Market Maker web page, and eXtension. Members will also make presentations to marketing, horticulture, and certification organizations. Research summaries will be published in trade association newsletters, or presented at annual stakeholder meetings.

Organization/Governance

The committee governance structure consists of a chair and chair-elect, both of which serve two-year terms. Nominations are requested in the Fall, with terms beginning in October (when typically the group meets along with the Food Distribution Society annual meetings). Duties performed by the committee leadership include organizing the annual meeting and requesting its authorization from the administrative advisor, conducting the annual meeting, completing and submitting the annual report, recruiting new members, and facilitating the organization of special issues in academic journals, symposia, presentation sessions, and similar research/outreach activities. Research planning and coordination will be conducted by establishing subcommittees for each project objective.

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Attachments

Land Grant Participating States/Institutions

Non Land Grant Participating States/Institutions