W5190: Management and Policy Challenges in a Water-Uncertain World

(Multistate Research Project)

Status: Active

Project Menu

SAES-422 Reports

Annual/Termination Reports:

[03/31/2025] [10/10/2025]

Date of Annual Report: 03/31/2025

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 02/05/2025 - 02/07/2025
Period the Report Covers: 02/05/2024 - 02/05/2025

Participants

Attendees: Nico Quintana-Ashwell (Mississippi State University), Mani Rouhi Rad (Texas A & M University), Molly Sears (Michigan State University), Lucia Levers (USDA-ARS), Kent Messer (University of Delaware), Todd Guilfoos (University of Rhode Island), Dawoon Jeong (Clemson University), Robin Rotman (University of Missouri), Alex Maas (University of Idaho), Lixia Lambert (Oklahoma State University), Gabriela Perez Quesada (University of Tennessee Knoxville), Sarah Collins (University of Wyoming), Renata Rimsaite (University of Nebraska), Kurt Schwabe (University of California, Riverside), Steven Buck (University of Kentucky), Munib Inam (University of Kentucky), Jiameng Zheng (Louisiana State University)

Brief Summary of Minutes

Accomplishments

Objective 1: Characterize the response of water resource and human systems to climatic and anthropogenic perturbations California (Dinar, Mahajan, Ying, Nemati, Schwabe, D'odorico)   (Schwabe) Co-authored paper titled "Cultivating Climate Resilience in California Agriculture: Adaptations to an Increasingly Volatile Water Future” that highlights areas in which California agriculture is vulnerable to climate change, drought, and water scarcity and identifies management strategies and policy options to reduce its vulnerability over the next 50 years. In addition, collaborating on USDA-NIFA funded project to compare different agricultural land use schemes under water scarcity – i.e., fallow vs water-limited–in terms of short and long term profits, soil quality, dust (pm-10) generation, and carbon sequestration. Georgia (Mullen)   Evaluated the water quantity and water quality implications of expanding vegetable production in the southeast under historical and future climate conditions. Switching from traditional cotton-peanut row crop production to vegetable crops would nearly double water withdrawals per acre. In general, pesticide risks to groundwater are higher for row crop systems in the southeast, while pesticide risks to surface water are higher for vegetable crop systems. Nitrogen and phosphorous application rates are also higher in vegetable cropping systems than row crop systems. This analysis is reported in the journal Sustainability.   Idaho (Maas)   Calculated crop acreage change and corresponding if evapotranspiration volumes for the East snake plane aquifer. This work was presented to the Idaho Dairyman's Association, and the Rural Agricultural Appraisers Association. Kansas (Hendricks, Sampson) We estimated how irrigation withdrawals respond to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration and find that farmers decrease water use by less than one inch for an additional inch of precipitation. We use the results of how farmers change their water use as weather changes to project changes in water use by mid-century due to climate change. We then estimate how the projected changes in water use translate to changes in the rate of aquifer depletion across different parts of the High Plains Aquifer. Climate change is expected to increase groundwater withdrawals which will accelerate the decline in aquifer water levels and is therefore important to consider when projecting future aquifer conditions. Michigan (Asher, Nejadhashemi)   Using the evolutionary multi-objective optimization concept, we developed a novel method to optimize Best Management Practices implementation to reduce the impacts of human activities. By integrating re-optimization strategies and transfer learning, we enhanced decision-making efficiency.   Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell) Identified excess groundwater pumping driven by irrigation associated with high heat during the growing season. The excess irrigation is of such a magnitude that it decoupled irrigation applications from in-season precipitation and evapotranspiration. A review of the literature reveals that across the corn belt, university extension bulletins identify leaf curling or flipping as a signal of water stress. This is a highly visual “trigger” for irrigators who overwhelmingly still rely on visual crop cues to initiate irrigation events. We verify with soil moisture sensors in research plots that soybean leafs flip and corn leafs curl even when there is adequate soil moisture. Oklahoma (Jafarzadegan, Lambert)   Worked with researchers from Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas on application of USDA-SAS grant (title: Sustainable Irrigation and Climate Adaptation in Southern Hight Plains: a Satellite-Enabled and Peer-Led Model). $10,000,000 was awarded to the research team. We also estimated impacts of local enhanced management area (LEMA) on groundwater use reduction, change in pumping costs, and irrigated crop production from 2013 to 2023.   South Carolina (Jeong) We, Dawoon Jeong from South Carolina and Gabriela Perez-Quesada from Tennessee, estimated how farmers in South Carolina adopt irrigation in response to peer effects and drought levels.   Texas (Wilcox, Dominguez, Rouhi Rad) Published a manuscript on modeling human-groundwater systems. The paper introduces a model that fully integrates groundwater aquifer system with producer irrigation decisions that are informed by an agronomic model.  Developed a manuscript on the effects of hot days on irrigation electricity demand. Our results demonstrate that, in the short-run, an additional day above 30◦C results in about 0.4% increase electricity use for irrigation and irrigators’ spending on electricity. In the long-run, results suggest that higher temperatures result in more wells as well as more electricity use for each well. Importantly, we find that the magnitude of long-run response is considerably larger, 3.9%, compared to short-run response suggesting an increased reliance on groundwater as a climate adaptation and resilience strategy in US agricultural production over the past three decades Estimated the effects of wildfires on water quality and quantity. We study how two wildfires in California (Tubs fire and Thomas fire) have affected streamflow and water quality. Developed a manuscript on the interaction between water scarcity and salinity in irrigated agricultural production. We show that water scarcity can worsen the negative effects of salinity on irrigated agriculture.  Objective 2: Quantify the use, non-use, and natural capital (flows and stocks) value of water in different stages of the water cycle California (Mahajan, Ying, Edwards, Schwabe, D'odorico) (Schwabe) Investigating the role of return flows from irrigated agriculture on ecosystem services and human health in the Salton Sea with the Salton Sea Task Force and how adjustments in Colorado River flows that might arise from the 2026 water sharing agreements might influence those outcomes as well as agricultural productivity in Imperial Valley. Kansas (Sampson, Hendricks) Using information from southcentral and southwest Kansas, we compared irrigators’ stated concerns about their water quality and water quantity with the history of irrigated acreage, total water use, and crop choices. We find that irrigators indicating elevated concern over either groundwater quality or groundwater quantity correlates with less total water use, fewer total irrigated acres, and fewer acres of irrigated corn. Additionally, concerns over groundwater quantity generally correlate with a greater reduction in water use along multiple water use margins compared to equal concerns over groundwater quality. We developed a model that estimates the economic cost of aquifer depletion. We estimate the economic impact of projected depletion of the High Plains Aquifer. When the initial saturated thickness is less than 70 feet, most of the economic impact (63%) of a decrease in the stock of groundwater occurs through an adjustment in irrigated acreage (extensive margin), while 37% occurs through reduced irrigated rental rates (intensive margin). When saturated thickness is larger, nearly all of the response is at the extensive margin. Simulation results reveal that the average annual present value of returns to land are expected to decrease in the High Plains region by $120.6 million in 2050, and by $250.5 million in 2100.   Louisiana (Zheng)   We developed a two stage model that integrates the recreational demand model with the hedonic model. This approach gives us a more comprehensive estimate on the value of water quality, including both use value and non-use value of water. We applied this approach to three regions in the US: Long Island Sound, Puget Sound and Texas Gulf Coast.  Tennessee (Perez Quesada)   Collaborated with colleagues at Kansas State University to develop a model that estimates the economic cost of aquifer depletion (described above). We utilize high-resolution data on crop production and groundwater levels to estimate the nonlinear impacts of groundwater levels for corn and wheat production across the High Plains Aquifer in the central United States. This analysis reveals that continuing the current path of depletion will decrease corn and wheat production in the region by 6.75% and 1.08% in 2050, with the impacts primarily arriving via reductions in irrigated acreage. We provide evidence of substantial spatial heterogeneity of these impacts, which is notable for a region that employs largely homogeneous technology and management practices throughout. The largest production losses are associated with the Central and Southern portion and are as large as 40% for corn production in the Texas portion of the aquifer.    Texas (Wilcox, Dominguez, Rouhi Rad)   Developed a manuscript that estimates the value of access to water, and the security of access to water captured by water rights seniority using agricultural land transactions in Colorado. We find a large but heterogeneous value for access to irrigation. Developed a manuscript on the introduction of non-market valuation method used for valuation of water quality  Objective 3: Evaluate and compare alternative strategies and institutions to manage water quantity and quality, and the relationship to ecosystem, communities, land, and energy uses California (Dinar, Mahajan, Ying, Edwards, Nemati, Schwabe, D'odorico) (Schwabe) As part of a USDA-NIFA project, investigating how the use of AI can influence water use in semi-arid and arid regions and consequent impacts on agricultural profits as well as runoff and the nutrient loads in the runoff. Georgia (Mullen)   We estimated agricultural water demand systems for the southeastern US (TX, LA, AR, MS, AL, TN, GA, FL, NC, SC, VA) using USDA FRIS and IWMS data. In Georgia, the own-price elasticity of irrigation water was negative but very inelastic across the 4 crops investigated (cotton, peanut, corn, and soybean), while the output price elasticities of irrigation water were positive and inelastic for the same crops. At the regional level, the output price elasticities of  irrigation water were also positive and inelastic, although the own-price elasticities were not significantly different than zero. Idaho (Maas) Awarded an $800,000 USDA-NIFA grant to investigate the impacts of land use change, water scarcity, and weather on particulate matter (air quality concentrations).   Published a peer-reviewed review article for estimating water demand in PLOS-Water.   Published a peer-reviewed article in Water Resources Research investigating how location and development along a water way impact total value of water within the watershed. Kansas (Sampson, Hendricks) We conducted an experiment where we provide information to irrigators about how much water they use compared to neighboring users. Our experiment randomizes who received the information and who did not. We find that irrigators that received the information decreased their water use by about 4%. This indicates that significant water savings can be achieved at a very low cost by simply providing irrigators with information about how their water use compares to their peers. We also wrote a paper that describes the importance of water institutions for proper water management, especially given the challenges faced by climate change. This paper synthesizes the relevant academic literature and also identifies key knowledge gaps for future research. We surveyed irrigators in Groundwater Management District 5 in southwest Kansas. The survey collected information on irrigation management practices and challenges facing irrigators. Survey respondents near unanimously view regulatory uncertainty, including the risk of reduced allocations, as a top concern confronting the future of irrigation in the region. Drought, energy costs associated with operating pumping plants, and reduced pumping capacities are also highly cited as irrigation challenges and concerns. Crop consultants, the producer’s own past experiences, and peer producers rank the highest in terms of reliable provision of information. Michigan (Asher, Srivastava, Ghane, Sears, O’Neil) Field-scale outcomes: We evaluated two water management strategies at the subsurface-drained fields in southeast Michigan. These strategies included controlled drainage and saturated buffers. Both strategies showed promising flow and nitrate load reduction. In terms of phosphorus performance, the strategies presented inconclusive benefits. We will continue evaluating these strategies in 2025 to determine their effectiveness for phosphorus reduction. Decision-support tool outcomes: We evaluated the USDA’s GSSURGO soil database for use in decision-support tools. Our DRAINMOD field-scale modeling showed that the soil database can reasonably predict water quantity from a subsurface-drained field. Our next step is to develop the decision-support tool to predict site-specific water quantity in subsurface-drained fields. We evaluated the costs of using institutional controls to manage groundwater contamination in Michigan. It was determined that a lot of hidden costs were associated with this management approach and that the value of various ecological services and long-term use of the aquifers in these areas were often underestimated. A decision-support tool was developed to assist the state with assessing the long-term costs of using institutional controls and to explore alternative management approaches.  We assessed phosphorus pollution and its relationship with market prices for fertilizer, corn and soybeans. We also assessed how irrigation adoption has been shifting across Michigan.  Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell) Applying survival analysis methods to data from a survey of irrigators identified the accelerating effect of state-level USDA-NRCS funding on water-conserving practice adoption. Each additional million dollars of funding is associated with 3% faster adoption of computerized hole selection and 22.5% faster adoption of center pivot irrigation. Poisson count models indicated that participation in NRCS programs influenced the number of practices adopted but not any particular practice. The announcement of the Governor’s Delta Water Resources Task force in 2012 seems to have introduced some uncertainty among producers and was associated with 1.5 and 6 times longer adoption time for computerized hole selection and center pivot, respectively.   Oklahoma (Jafarzadegan, Lambert)    Lixia Lambert with student and colleagues: conducted drought and federal crop insurance program impact analysis. The study quantified the direct and indirect economic losses experienced by five counties in southwestern Oklahoma that experienced exceptional drought at some point from 2000 to 2021 and determine how losses are moderated by Federal Crop Insurance indemnities for corn, cotton, and wheat.  Lixia Lambert with Lucia Levers: developed a manuscript based on investigating optimal cropping patterns and changes in energy costs and water table in Oklahoma Panhandle region with respect to different extraction constraints. Texas (Dominguez, Rouhi Rad)   Developed a manuscript estimating the marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve for irrigation water in the Colorado River Basin using operation-level data on crop choice decisions. We show the heterogeneity of abatement costs across the states and basins due to the types of crops produced. Developed a manuscript on regulating non-point source pollution from the stormwater. Our preliminary results show that the MS4 policy resulted in significant declines in water pollution (turbidity, TSS, phosphorus). Developed a manuscript to study the impact of the Reclamation Act on agricultural development and population dynamics in the western United States. We find that the Act increased irrigation acres and yields for some crops, which resulted in increases in land values. It also increased population.

Publications

California  Medellin-Azuara, J., Escriva-Bou, A., Gaudin, A., Schwabe, K. and Sumner, D. 2024. "Cultivating Climate Resilience in California Agriculture: Adaptations to an Increasingly Volatile Water Future.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121<a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2310079121"> https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2310079121</a>. Kansas  Gardner, Grant, and Gabriel S. Sampson. 2024. "Groundwater quality vs. groundwater quantity. Combining information on irrigator concerns with past water use and cropping behavior." Water Resources and Economics 47: 100246. Sampson, G. S., Aguilar, J., Baldwin, C., Davidson, J., and Mehl, H. 2024. Water Management and Information Gaps in the High Plains Aquifer. Journal of the ASFMRA, 2024:116-129. Orduña Alegría, Maria Elena, Sam Zipper, Hoon C. Shin, Jillian M. Deines, Nathan P. Hendricks, Jonah J. Allen, Geoffrey C. Bohling, et al. 2024. “Unlocking Aquifer Sustainability through Irrigator-Driven Groundwater Conservation.” Nature Sustainability.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01437-0"> https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01437-0</a> Zhao, J., N.P. Hendricks, and H. Li. 2024. “Groundwater Institutions in the Face of Global Climate Change” Annual Review of Resource Economics 16:125-141.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-101623-100909"> https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-101623-100909</a> Perez-Quesada, G., N.P. Hendricks, and D.R. Steward. 2024. “The Economic Cost of Groundwater Depletion in the High Plains Aquifer.” Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 11(2): 253-285.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/726156"> https://doi.org/10.1086/726156</a> Hrozencik, R.A., J.F. Suter, P.J. Ferraro, and N. Hendricks. 2024. “Social Comparisons and Groundwater Use: Evidence from Colorado and Kansas.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 106(2): 946-966.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12415"> https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12415</a> Louisiana  Lisk, M. D., Grogan, D. S., Zuidema, S., Zheng, J., Caccese, R., Peklak, D., ... & Fowler, L. (2024). Harmonized Database of Western US Water Rights (HarDWR) v. 1. Scientific Data, 11(1), 598. Michigan  M.A. Askar, E. Ghane, M.A. Youssef, V.S. Shedekar, K.W. King, R. Bhattarai. 2024. Feasibility of predicting subsurface drainage discharge with DRAINMOD parameterized by uncalibrated SURRGO soil properties and ROSETTA3. Journal of Natural Resources and Agricultural Ecosystems. 22, 1-10.<a href="https://doi.org/10.13031/jnrae.15735"> https://doi.org/10.13031/jnrae.15735</a> Masri, Z., J. Asher, and J. R. Piwarski. 2024. Reduction of Nitrate Leaching and Threats to Surface Water Under Conservation Tillage. Journal of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 67(3): 573-588. doi: 10.13031/ja.15533  <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/iwr/MSU-FLOW_Long-term_Costs_of_Institutional_Controls.pdf">O</a>'Neil, G., Miller, S., Dempsey, D., Flaga, C., & Mann, J. (2024). <a href="https://www.canr.msu.edu/iwr/MSU-FLOW_Long-term_Costs_of_Institutional_Controls.pdf">Institutional Controls for Groundwater Management: Long Terms Costs and Policy Impacts.</a> Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy – Office of the Great Lakes Award GL21-MSU-01. Kropp, I., A. P. Nejadhashemi, K. Deb, 2024. Improved Evolutionary Operators for Sparse Large-Scale Multi-objective Optimization Problems, IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation, 8(2): 460-473. Deb, K., A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, G. Toscano, H. Razavi, L. Linker, 2024. Leveraging innovization and transfer learning to optimize best management practices in large-scale watershed management, Journal of Environmental Modelling and Software, 180: 106161. Kpodo, J, P. Kordjamshidi, A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, AgXQA: A Benchmark for Advanced Agricultural Extension Question Answering, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 225: 109349. Sarkar, Sampriti, Preet Lal, Molly Sears, Frank Lupi. (2024) “Evaluating the impact of fertilizer and crop prices on phosphorus concentrations in Great Lakes watersheds.” Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.145"> https://doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.145</a> Mississippi  Quintana-Ashwell, N. E., Al-Sudani, A., & Gholson, D. M. (2024). The cost of mismanaging crop heat stress with irrigation: Evidence from the mid-south USA. Agricultural Water Management, 300, 108907.   Roberts, C., Gholson, D., Quintana Ashwell, N. E., Locke, M., Pieralisi, B., Spencer, G., Crow, W., Krutz, L. J (2025). Economic implications of reduced tillage and cover crops in the irrigated mid-South. Agronomy Journal. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.70034">https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.70034</a>.   Russell, D., Singh, G., Quintana-Ashwell, N., Kaur, G., Gholson, D., Krutz, L. J., & Nelson, K. A. (2024). Cover crops and irrigation impacts on corn production and economic returns. Agricultural Water Management, 295, 108739. Oklahoma    Lambert, DM, LH Lambert, J Ripberger, H Jankins-Smith, & CL Silva. (2024) Public support for producer adoption of soil health practices. Agriculture and Human Values. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-024-10660-6 Welch, KL, DM Lambert, LH Lambert, & A Hagerman. (2024). The effects of disaster relief insurance on drought impacts: a case study of southwest Oklahoma. Review of Regional Studies 54, 215-240.    Tennessee (Perez Quesada)   Perez-Quesada, G., Hendricks, N.P., Tack, J. and Steward, D.R. 2024. Adapting crop production to water scarcity. Environmental Research Letters, 20(1), p.014029.   Texas (Wilcox, Dominguez, Rouhi Rad)   Nozari, S., Bailey, R.T., Rad, M.R., Smith, G.E., Andales, A.A., Zambreski, Z.T., Tavakoli-Kivi, S., Sharda, V., Kisekka, I., Gowda, P. and Schipanski, M.E., 2024. An Integrated Modeling Approach to Simulate Human-Crop-Groundwater Interactions in Intensively Irrigated Regions. Environmental Modelling & Software, p.106120.   Guerrero, V.L., Sahoo, D., Dickes, L., Walker, T., Rouhi Rad, M. and Allen, J., 2024. Adap- tive Water Governance in an Interest-Based Stakeholder-Driven Water Resource Planning Institution in South Carolina, US. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 150(6), p.05024004.

Impact Statements

Kansas (Sampson, Hendricks): Provided stakeholders with information about the economic consequences of groundwater depletion so that they can determine appropriate steps necessary to avoid adverse consequences to the agricultural community.
Michigan (Asher, Nejadhashemi, Srivastava, Ghane, Sears, O’Neil): Provided stakeholders with knowledge about how to manage agricultural water at the field scale, thereby improving their bottom line and improving water quality.
Michigan (Asher, Nejadhashemi, Srivastava, Ghane, Sears, O’Neil): Improved knowledge, understanding, and management options for state water managers related to contaminated groundwater. Tools and reports were used to help guide policy related hazardous waste and water resources.
Michigan (Asher, Nejadhashemi, Srivastava, Ghane, Sears, O’Neil): Hosted the 12th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, themed “Addressing Global Environmental Challenges through Intelligent Modelling.”
Received funding in the amount of $1.29M. The project title is “BRACE: Building Resilience in Agriculture through Climate-smart Practices and Socioeconomic Evaluation.” The PI are Nejadhashemi, A.P., J. Andresen, Y. Dong, S. Marquart-Pyatt, Y. Pokhrel, M. Sears, V. Rafiei. The funding agency is The Michigan Department of Agriculture & Rural Development (MDARD).
Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell): Warned irrigators of the high cost of a deficient rule of thumb that relies on crop visual cues to trigger irrigation events at a high cost to farmers and the aquifer.
Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell): Showed stakeholders that policy announcements without clear indication of the actions and interventions involved can cause farmers to delay investments in water conserving technologies.
Oklahoma (Jafarzadegan, Lambert): Provide stakeholders (producers and policy makers) with insights into the economic impact of drought and Federal Crop Insurance on local economies and farming communities. Deliver research-based information on crop production and strategies for extending groundwater resources in Oklahoma Panhandle region.
South Carolina (Jeong): Provided stakeholders (SC state agencies and extension agents) with information on farmers’ irrigation adoption decisions by presenting the joint work with Gabriela Perez-Quesada from Tennessee.

Date of Annual Report: 10/10/2025

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 09/25/2025 - 09/26/2025
Period the Report Covers: 02/06/2025 - 09/26/2025

Participants

Brief Summary of Minutes

Accomplishments

Objective 1: Characterize the response of water resource and human systems to climatic and anthropogenic perturbations   California (Mahajan, D'Odorico, Dinar, Nemati, Schwabe, Ying) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developed regional hydro-economic model of watershed that investigates the cost-effectiveness of managed aquifer recharge and how such recharge is influenced by different climate conditions as well as demand management strategies.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developed hydro-economic model investigating the implications of different cropping systems on nutrient runoff and loadings into arid terminal lake that looks at how changes in water allocations, economic parameters, and transfer/trading agreements impact nutrient runoff.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Continuing research investigating the costs and benefits of reduced water cropping systems relative to fallowing land to address water scarcity and groundwater overdraft. Using both programming models, econometric models, along with nonmarket valuation techniques to identify wide range of impacts and processes and how they are impacted by drought, changes in water and climate, and institutional adjustments.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Expanding the work on assessing the impact of climate change and the on-farm and political adaptation to climate-change-induced water scarcity in the agricultural sector of California. <ul> <li>We collected and purchased data on farm operations, soil properties, climate, political interactions in  and land value, across all agricultural countries in California and over time to estimate the value of different responses to climate change on farm land value.</li> </ul> </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Understanding the impacts of climate Change I and the effectiveness of Mitigation, and Adaptation in Agriculture, using cases from around the world. <ul> <li>We organized a group of economists that work on impact and adaptation of climate change in the agricultural sector, to share their approaches and findings. The works were presented in an online workshop where 23 studies were shared. The work will be culminated in a handbook (see publication section).</li> </ul> </li> </ul> Connecticut (Fragomeni) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Analyzed vegetation density and fragmentation to evaluate their influence on wetland cooling capacity in temperate climates, such as Connecticut.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Monitored meteorological conditions across three case study wetland sites, mainly looking at air temperature, relative humidity, wind flow,soil temperature, and soil moisture.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Based on meteorological findings, and previous findings on the linkages between tree removal and water impairment we expanded the research inquiry to understand how fragmentation and vegetation density are impacting soil moisture.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Initiated a collaboration with soil mycologist (Dr. Mia Maltz) to assess existing soil fungal communities and examine how landscape fragmentation and subsequent microclimatic changes may impact these microorganisms and their water filtration capacity. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Reviewed and synthesized planning documents from 10 Connecticut towns to evaluate policy linkages between forested wetland conservation and heat mitigation.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Compared in-situ results with regulatory framework for establishing and conserving forest wetland buffers widths. </li> </ul>   Georgia (Mullen and Hrozencik) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Assessed the role of water resources in the agricultural development of the western U.S. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Continued to work with Georgia’s Environmental Planning Division to forecast agricultural water diversion to support regional and state water planning and better understand how evolving climate conditions impact agricultural water use. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Evaluated how water management and scarcity driven fallowing of irrigated land impacted the incidence of Valley Fever in Arizona and California. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Assessed performance of forecasting models for irrigated acreage against mapped irrigated acreage in Georgia.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Assessed performance of forecasting models for irrigated water withdrawals against metered water withdrawals in Georgia.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Based on assessments of forecasting models, updated and estimated new irrigation acreage and water withdrawal models for Georgia. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developed and estimated irrigation and water withdrawal models for the southeast region, from Texas to Virginia, using USDA FRIS/IWMS survey data.</li> </ul>   Idaho (Maas) <ul> <li>I combined large-scale datasets linking weather and drought exposures (GridMET), land use (CDL), and human outcomes (EPA air monitors, soil health enrollments) to capture how climate variability and management affect land-us decisions and human health.  I worked with the Colorado Department of Agriculture to identified practice adoption patterns, cost distributions, and incentive effects, showing how producers respond to financial and climatic stressors. Preparatory work for the ERASE-PM (USDA-funded)  project integrated cropland composition with climate–air quality linkages, highlighting agricultural contributions to particulate matter exposures.</li> <li>We also examined the link between plastic bag bans and substitution to unregulated markets, to examine the implications for plastic waste and litter, which has substantial implications for waterways and stormwater management. </li> </ul>   Illinois (Bhattarai, Kalita) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">We analyzed the elevated risk of compound extreme precipitation events following extreme heat stress (CEPHS) in the socially vulnerable communities in the Upper Midwest. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">We analyzed the temporal shifts in extreme precipitation regime, and the implications for urban locations and major crops in Illinois. </li> </ul>   Indiana (Gitau) <ul> <li>Prevailing and anticipated future hydroclimatic scenarios require integrated solutions to ensure the sustainability of our natural and human resource systems. The integration of solar PV arrays in co-production systems involving food and energy while ensuring water availability and quality remain unimpacted, offer such solutions. We used the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model along with experimental data to simulate spatiotemporal shadow distribution (SSD) between solar panels and obtain insights on plant performance and power generation considering different panel configurations, operation, and growth periods. Results showed immense potential for co-production with any impacts on crop yield being largely dependent on spatiotemporal shadow distribution (in addition to total radiation) and its potential impact on field microclimate and soil health, suggesting the need for system optimization</li> </ul>   Kansas (Sampson, Cameron-Harp, Sorensen Montoya) <ul> <li>We estimated how hurricanes impact agricultural risk in the lower Mississippi River basin using crop losses from RMA and geospatial hurricane data from NASA. This paper demonstrates that hurricanes cause coastal counties to have systematically higher losses than counties further inland, and that the pattern of systematic risk caused by hurricanes varies by crop. We also examine how the distribution of impacts we find aligns with availability criteria for the Hurricane Insurance Protection - Wind Index (HIP-WI) Endorsement.</li> <li>We estimated how an invasive woody species in Kansas affects farmland values. Eastern red cedar and other woody species have expanded their range due to climate change and rangeland fire suppression behaviors. Transition of grassland to shrub and tree-dominated landscapes impacts water resources. Using a combination of landowner surveys and land transaction data, we find that encroachment of woody species has not yet affected farmland values in Kansas. This finding suggests that the control of invasive woody species is especially difficult because the market does not reward landowners for controlling against woody encroachment.     </li> </ul>   Michigan (Asher, Nejadhashemi, Giri) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Our work demonstrates how adaptive optimization and transfer learning can capture the dynamic responses of water resource systems to human interventions. By identifying influential BMP patterns and efficiently re-optimizing management strategies, it reveals how systems evolve under anthropogenic decisions. This enhances understanding of coupled human–water system behavior amid climatic and land-use perturbations.</li> </ul>   Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell) <ul> <li>Built panel dataset of cropland permitted for irrigation in the Delta region of Mississippi between 2014 and 2023 that includes permit to access to ground and surface water sources and presence of on-farm reservoirs. The spatially explicit dataset is enriched with crop and weather data layers. Water table elevation data for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer obtained from the USGS for the same period indicates the bottom of the aquifer cone of depression shifts over time indicating high lateral flows suggesting an opportunity for optimal management of the cone of depression to maximize recharge from the Mississippi and Yazoo rivers.</li> </ul>   Montana (Hagerty) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developed a quasi-experimental research design and analyzed data to study how water scarcity affects legal conflict.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Analyzed data to study how surface water scarcity affects agricultural groundwater use and depletion.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Analyzed data to study how groundwater irrigation affects domestic well failures, and how the effects vary across different types of communities.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Applied and refined methods to estimate consumptive water use in irrigated agriculture in Montana, in order to study how it responds to perturbations.</li> </ul>   Nebraska (Rimsaite, Schoengold) <ul> <li>Studied nitrate-contaminated groundwater in Nebraska to better understand its implications on public health. Nitrate levels data were sourced from the Nebraska Groundwater Quality Clearinghouse – a publicly available database. The team developed and published a manuscript on this topic.</li> </ul>   Texas (Wilcox, Dominguez, Rouhi Rad) <ul> <li>The Wilcox lab has determined that thicketization by woody plants on the Carrizo Wilcox recharge zone dramatically reduces recharge to the aquifer.  We have also found that in the Edward Aquifer recharge zone, trees increase soil infiltrability and during drought access water from the underlying bedrock above the groundwater.  </li> <li>Rouhi Rad studied how agricultural production in the US responds to drought using micro-level data to estimate the cost of drought. The analysis considers both irrigated and dryland production. It also considers changes in input use and costs, and output volumes and profits.</li> <li>Rouhi Rad studied agricultural producers’ irrigation response to hotter temperatures on the extensive margin (number of groundwater irrigation wells) and the intensive margin (irrigation electricity use) using data from the Rural Electric Cooperatives.</li> </ul>   Wyoming (Hansen, Collins, Asgari) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Asgari and Hansen are developing a Hydro-economic model for the Upper Green River Basin in Wyoming (headwaters to Colorado River Basin) to evaluate the economic impacts of water conservation under different water availability scenarios </li> </ul> Objective 2: Quantify the use, non-use, and natural capital (flows and stocks) value of water in different stages of the water cycle   California (Mahajan, Ying, Schwabe, D'odorico) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developing model to quantify the cost-effectiveness of green/natural capital in the form of aquifer recharge on regional watershed water supply costs.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developing nonmarket values of water use in limited cropping systems that impact human health via dust generation and respiratory illness.</li> </ul>   Georgia (Mullen and Hrozencik) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Evaluated how water supply security impacts the value of water resource using (Join with Rouhi-Rad at TAMU)</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Assessed how changing stocks of groundwater natural capital influence agricultural credit outcomes in the High Plains Aquifer region (join with Perez-Quesada at UTenn)</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Estimated the impact of terminology on consumers’ willingness to use recycled water at the residential level.</li> </ul>   Kansas (Sampson, Hendricks) <ul> <li>We estimated how access to access to irrigation through prior appropriation affect farmland values in Kansas. We also estimate how the quantity allocated from the state and seniority of the water right affect farmland values. We find that irrigation provides a 70% land market premium in Kansas. Additional quantity allocations and seniority status also increase the value of irrigated farmland. We estimate a lower bound value of access to irrigation from the High Plains Aquifer in Kansas to be $767 million.</li> <li>We estimated how CRP enrollment status affects non-irrigated and irrigated farmland in Kansas. We find no evidence of a differential land value impact of CRP enrollment between irrigated and non-irrigated farmland.</li> <li>We estimated how declines in saturated thickness of the High Plains Aquifer impact corn and wheat production. If depletion continues as it has, then we project that by 2050, corn and wheat production will decrease by 6.75% and 1.08%, respectively, in the High Plains Aquifer region due to depletion. These impacts are concentrated in the southern portions of the aquifer, with Texas losing 40% of its corn production in the region. Most of the losses are due to decreases in irrigated area and crop switching rather than decreases in irrigated yields.</li> </ul>   Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell) <ul> <li>Quantified the benefits of restoring temporary wetland function of cropland in the Delta region of Mississippi. Project funded by EPA and enhanced by EQIP incentives enrolled farmers with land in the migratory path of 34 shorebird and waterfowl species to flood cropland in the offseason. Producers reported faster breakdown of residue, increased in-season soil moisture, noticeable weed suppression, more “mellow soil” for planting and an average 4 percent increase in soybean yields (no reported yield difference in other crops). Treated fields had significantly reduced runoff of sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen when compared to unflooded control fields. Valuation of these ecosystem services is in progress.</li> </ul>   Montana (Hagerty) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developed novel quasi-experimental methods for the valuation of irrigation water and assembled data.</li> </ul>   Nebraska (Schoengold) <ul> <li>We used survey data from a discrete choice experiment on the valuation of ecosystem services from conservation programs designed to improve soil health. One of the attributes included in the survey was an improvement in water quality via reduced runoff and contamination. Results from a survey of Nebraska residents shows that households place a significant positive value on water quality improvements, and that the willingness to pay (WTP) for a program differs based on differences in nudging information provided.</li> </ul>   South Carolina (Jeong, Khedun) <ul> <li>Jeong studied how coastal residents respond to increasing extreme weather events when making wastewater management decisions, such as maintaining their septic systems or connecting to a sewer utility. I conducted a choice experiment targeting more than 400 residents across eight coastal counties in South Carolina. The results show that residents are willing to adopt improved wastewater management practices to enhance stream and estuarine water quality, but not necessarily groundwater quality. We also find that implementing mandatory management policies can significantly reduce social uncertainty related to neighbors’ potential mismanagement of their septic systems.  (Task 2.1)</li> <li>Jeong studied whether confined aquifers are valued by agricultural producers in South Carolina. We employed a hedonic framework to compare the values of irrigated and non-irrigated parcels between 2011 and 2021 across three counties where irrigation has expanded significantly. Our results indicate that groundwater is valued by farmers in South Carolina; however, we find no evidence that aquifer sharedness—measured by the number of nearby irrigators as a proxy for competition among users—reduces aquifer values. (Task 2.2)</li> </ul>   Texas ( Dominguez, Rouhi Rad, Guerrero) <ul> <li>Rouhi Rad studied the value of water security in the state of Colorado. Specifically, using a hedonic valuation method, the paper studied the value of water rights seniority across river basins in the state.</li> <li>Rouhi Rad studied the value of groundwater natural capital by considering factors beyond saturated thickness that affect groundwater use decisions of producers. Specifically, the study explicitly considered well capacity as a factor that affect that value of water in agricultural land transactions.</li> </ul>   Objective 3: Evaluate and compare alternative strategies and institutions to manage water quantity and quality, and the relationship to ecosystem, communities, land, and energy uses   California (Dinar, Mahajan, Ying, Edwards, Nemati, Schwabe, D'odorico) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Further refining model of how changes in water allocations along the Colorado River impact cropping systems in the Imperial Valley and the subsequent impact on nutrient runoff and returns flows to the Salton Sea. These impacts will be tied to ecosystem services and human health.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developing a review paper that compares alternative institutions to manage water quantity and quality under varying climatic conditions, size of the watershed, cultural background, and political frameworks from around the world. THis sub-project allowed for an undergraduate research student to benefit from exposure to the scientific work of conducting a review paper.  <ul> <li>The review compares nearly 275 published studies during the period 1995-2025. See Publication Section for details.</li> </ul> </li> </ul>   Georgia (Mullen and Hrozencik) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Conducted an on-going stated preference survey of southern Georgia irrigator preferences (WTA) for voluntary irrigation suspension contracts to meet regional water conservation objectives.  Used these WTA estimates to characterize the cost-effectiveness of differing program design alternatives aiming to meet predefined streamflow objectives (joint with Perez-Quesada at UTenn).</li> </ul>   Idaho (Maas) <ul> <li>This year I evaluated alternative water management strategies by analyzing institutional arrangements—ditch companies, irrigation districts, and utilities—and their effects on shortage sharing, recharge, and community outcomes across the western U.S. I began work examining hydrologic and institutional conditions that generate negative-, zero-, and positive-sum outcomes, linking these to ecological, land-use, and energy system tradeoffs. In addition, I am contributing to an NSF-EPSCoR grant focused on land-use change and effective policy incentives, expanding the policy relevance of this research.</li> </ul>   Kansas (Sampson, Hendricks, Cameron-Harp, Sorensen Montoya) <ul> <li>We studied how adoption of more efficient irrigation systems impacted groundwater use over time. This paper demonstrated how the change from flood or furrow irritation to center pivot systems lead to an immediate decrease in groundwater withdrawals. In addition, we find adoption of Low Energy Precision Application irrigation had insignificant impacts on water withdrawals in the short run and reduced withdrawals in the long run.</li> <li>Using data from land market transactions and water right characteristics in Kansas, we predicted the impact that alternative redistributions of water right seniority status and quantity allocations would have on irrigated farms. We find that water conservation policy that ignores quantity allocations or seniority status would transfer approximately 2.3% or 2.7% of the total economic value of the High Plains Aquifer in Kansas, respectively.</li> <li>We study how the entry of ethanol plants affects transitions of cropland in the nearby region. Our preferred specification shows that plant expansions increase the probability of cropland conversion by 1.5 percentage points and cropland retention by 0.1 percentage points in plant neighborhoods. We also demonstrate the importance of accounting for classification errors in remote sensing data. Raw data with substantial classification errors results in estimates that are counterintuitive, but using cleaned data provides much more reliable estimates.</li> </ul>   Michigan (Asher, Giri,Srivastava, Ghane, Sears) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Modeled adoption of center-pivot irrigation for field crops in Michigan, to understand drivers of adoption in a water rich environment. The next steps for the project are to evaluate the impacts this has on water-resources, and to evaluate how adoption and water availability may change by midcentury. Finished a similar project in Serbia, creating an interactive hydro-economic model that integrates drivers of irrigation adoption decisions with SWAT+ to understand the impacts of adoption on water availability under climate change. Studied the impact of crop insurance in moral hazard behavior in irrigation water use in the High Plains Aquifer.  </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Ghane: We evaluated the impact of climate change on subsurface drainage design for corn production in southeast Michigan. Using the DRAINMOD model and climate projections for 2030–2059 under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, we analyzed hydrological changes and economic outcomes for various drain spacings at two depths (75 cm and 125 cm). We informed drainage design under projected future climate.</li> </ul>   Minnesota (Peterson) <ul> <li>Developing a model and compiling data to evaluate alternative program designs for adoption of cover crops and other soil health practices to reduce nitrogen loading and soil erosion in Upper Midwest watersheds. Of particular interest are performance and outcome based payment mechanisms as compared to traditional cost-share assistance conditioned on practice adoption alone. </li> </ul> Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell) <ul> <li>Explored the factors affecting the speed of adoption of water saving technologies in the Delta region of Mississippi. State-wide funding of NRCS water management practices has an accelerating effect while the announcement of a Governor’s Groundwater Taskforce (in 2012) without a clear mandate resulting in a slowdown in adoption, particularly for overhead sprinklers.</li> </ul>   Missouri (Rotman) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developed focus group recruitment protocol and interview script for study of public perceptions of wetlands in the Blue River Watershed of Missouri and Kansas. Worked with community partners, Heartland Conservation Alliance and My Region Wins!. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Contributed to a large language model to develop a chatbot on Missouri water law.</li> </ul>   Montana (Hagerty) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developed new theoretical and statistical methods to model how and when water districts choose to participate in surface water markets, and how this choice is affected by market prices and water conditions.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Revised simulations and analysis of the benefits of surface water markets, and provided evidence to identify the main constraints to water transfers.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Analyzed experimental data to demonstrate that payments for voluntary conservation can reduce groundwater use in agriculture.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Conducted theoretical and empirical analysis on the optimal design of contracts for conservation payments in the context of groundwater irrigation.</li> </ul>   Nebraska (Rimsaite, Schoengold) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Studied groundwater allocation rules to better understand what allocation designs could advance farmers’ profitability while maintaining water conservation goals. This includes a collaboration with the Kansas Geological Survey to better understand the role of groundwater allocation designs in balancing tradeoffs between aquifer drawdown and agricultural profitability. Data about groundwater allocation rules were collected in Nebraska and Kansas.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Sought to better understand the variability of water rights systems distribution for surface water and groundwater in the U.S. Produced a map with primary water rights systems in the U.S. with input from all 50 states.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Worked on various initiatives to enhance the understanding of indigenous communities’ agricultural water management and water rights. This includes a collaboration with the Public Policy Institute of California around tribal water rights in California, organizing a conference session at the 2025 Water for Food Global Conference, and developing a factsheet about tribal water in agriculture.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">The ongoing efforts around Task 3 contributed to receiving a grant from the Kansas Department of Agriculture to review the Central Kansas Water Bank. The goal of this work is to enhance understanding of incentive-based water management tools (e.g., water transfer mechanisms) used in agriculture. In addition, I received invitations to participate in panel discussions (including at UCOWR, as organized by this group) and engage with different stakeholder groups (including publishing a few short articles in “Irrigation Today” – the quarterly Irrigation Association’s magazine) around the topics of groundwater management policy tools in agriculture.</li> </ul>   Oklahoma (Jafarzadegan, Lambert) <ul> <li>Evaluate the groundwater restrictions in Kansas’s Sheridan-6 (2013-2023) under the Local Enhanced Management Area (LEMA) Program using difference-in-difference regressions and well-level panel data. Results show a 16% reduction in water use intensity and $5.48 per acre saving in pumping costs, with no change in irrigated area. Findings indicate that farmer-led, locally governed restrictions can cut water use without reducing productivity. However, further research should measure long-term measurement of conservation outcomes under policy diffusion and producer responses.</li> <li>Compared optimal groundwater withdrawal and land allocation among field crops under different extraction, energy, and discount rates, using a hydro-economic model developed for Oklahoma’s Texas County. Findings show that higher water extraction lowers both water tables and long-term profitability, while lower extraction supports sustainability and profitability, with dryland sorghum substituting for irrigated maize. Energy costs have little effect under low extraction, and discount rates reveal that valuing long-term returns can increase irrigation benefits over time with reduced pumping.</li> </ul>   South Carolina (Jeong, Khedun) <ul> <li>Jeong studies social perceptions of adopting augmented water supply as an alternative water allocation mechanism. We developed a consumer preference survey to examine consumers’ hypothetical valuations of agricultural products grown using alternative water sources that conserve conventional freshwater. The study considers treated stormwater, reclaimed wastewater, and brackish groundwater as potential alternative sources. The survey results will provide insights into mechanisms for conserving traditional water resources and reallocating them to higher-valued uses. (Task 3.1).</li> </ul>   Tennessee (Perez Quesada) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Developed a manuscript that provides an overview of the development of irrigated agriculture in the west of the US, identifying the trends in infrastructure, technology, water sources, and cropping patterns that define the region’s agricultural economy and its responsiveness to water scarcity (with Aaron Hrozencik).</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Continuing investigating Irrigation Organizations (IOs) adaptations to water scarcity in the Western region of the US. Specifically, we explore differences in IO adaptation investments based on their past experiences of water scarcity and their organizational characteristics. This analysis leverages novel micro-level data from the Survey of Irrigation Organizations (USDA) (with Aaron Hrozencik and Mani Rouhi Rad).</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Further refining model to explore the factors that influence farmers preferred reductions in groundwater use through a water conservation program implemented by a Groundwater Management District in Kansas (with Nathan Hendricks).</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Implement an online stated preference survey combining a choice experiment and a stochastic payment card in the Flint-Chattahoochee Basins in Georgia (with Aaron Hrozencik).</li> </ul>   Texas (Dominguez, Rouhi Rad, Guerrero, Wilcox) <ul> <li>Rouhi Rad studied the benefits of large irrigation dams built by the USBR across 11 western states. The study compares irrigated acres, agricultural production, and population of counties downstream of the dams with those of the upstream counties.</li> <li>Rouhi Rad studied the trade off between canal efficiency and on-farm irrigation efficiency. The paper studies whether farms that receive their water from more efficient canals are less likely to invest in irrigation efficiency. The paper answers this question using data from two Colorado river basins.</li> <li>Rouhi Rad studied the effectiveness of regulation in the context of non-point source pollution in the US. Specifically, the paper studies the effects of municipal separate stormwater systems policy under the Clean Water Act on water quality in regulated areas.</li> </ul>   Washington (Cook, Yoder) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Completed and submitted manuscript on the empirical incidence of water rights forfeiture in Washington state</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Completed and submitted manuscript reporting the results of a survey of irrigators on views of three complementary technologies (consumptive use measurement, long-run forecasts, and smart markets)</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Completed and submitted manuscript on the potential importance of non-pecuniary preferences and “psychological ownership” to water market participation. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Manuscript accepted for publication on how concurrent short-term pauses in irrigation lead to pulse flow improvements that can be ecologically meaningful to fish</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Manuscript accepted for publication using an agent-based modeling approach to water market participation</li> </ul>   Wyoming (Hansen, Collins, Asgari) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Asgari and Hansen presented preliminary results of measuring the economic impacts of different water curtailment levels under weather induced water availability in Southwestern Wyoming (UCOWR 2025 and AAEA 2025). A manuscript is being prepared for submission.</li> </ul>

Publications

California (Dinar, Mahajan, Edwards, Ying, Nemati, Schwabe, D'odorico) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Medellin-Azuara, J., Escriva-Bou, A., Gaudin, A., Schwabe, K. and Sumner, D. 2024. "Cultivating Climate Resilience in California Agriculture: Adaptations to an Increasingly Volatile Water Future.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121<a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2310079121"> https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2310079121</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Schwabe, K. 2025. Book Review: Science Be Dammed: How Ignoring Inconvenient Science Drained the Colorado River (by E. Kuhn and J. Fleck). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1142/S2382624X25800025"> https://doi.org/10.1142/S2382624X25800025</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Crespo D., M. Nemati, A. Dinar, Z. Frankel, N. Halberg, 2025. Assessing the Economic Value of Water in the Colorado River Basin: A Hydro-economic Analysis. Water Resources & Economics, Volume 52, 100266), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2025.100266.  </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Avila, P., M. Nemati, D. Crespo, A. Dinar, Z. Frankel, N. Halberg, 2025. Public Spending and Water Scarcity: An Empirical Analysis of USBR Investments in the Colorado River Ba-sin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA), https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70042. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Kishore, S., M. Nemati, A. Dinar, C. L. Struthers, S. MacKenzie, M. S. Shugart, 2025. Cli-mate-Induced Changes in Agricultural Land Use: Parcel-level Evidence from California’s Cen-tral Valley. Climatic Change 178, 59. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03905-8. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Crespo, D., M. Nemati, A. Dinar, Z. Frankel, and N. Halberg, Developing a Decision Sup-port Model to Assess the Value of Cooperation Benefits Under Climate Change: Case of the Colorado River Basin in the United States. In: Shahbazbegian, M. and A. Dinar (Eds.), Shahbazbegian, M. and A. Dinar (Eds.), Decision Support Models to Assist International Transboundary Water Negotiations: Methodologies and Applications. Oxford University Press (Forthcoming, January 2026), Chapter 8.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Dinar, A. and R. Mendelsohn, Introduction. In: Dinar, A. and R. Mendelsohn (Eds.), Handbook on Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Agriculture, Edward Elgar Publishers: Cheltenham, U.K. (Forthcoming, March 2026). Chapter 1.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector of the Colorado River Basin: A Hydro-economic Analysis, Crespo, D., M. Nemati, A. Dinar, Z. Frankel, and N. Halberg. In: Dinar, A. and R. Mendelsohn (Eds.), Handbook on Climate Change Impacts, Mitiga-tion, and Adaptation in Agriculture, Edward Elgar Publishers: Cheltenham, U.K. (Forth-coming, March 2026). Chapter 12.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Mendelsohn, R. and A. Dinar, Conclusions of the Handbook on Climate Change Impacts, Miti-gation, and Adaptation in Agriculture, and Lessons Learned. In: Dinar, A. and R. Mendel-sohn (Eds.), Handbook on Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Ag-riculture, Edward Elgar Publishers: Cheltenham, U.K. (Forthcoming, March 2026). Chapter 23.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Pellaton, P., J. P. Colner, A. Cohen, C. Struthers, S. Kishore, S. A. MacKenzie, M. S. Shugart, M. Nemati and A. Dinar, Legislative Responsiveness to Climate Change: Politically-driven Adaptation in California’s Agricultural Sector. In: Dinar, A. and R. Mendelsohn (Eds.), Handbook on Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Agriculture, Ed-ward Elgar Publishers: Cheltenham, U.K. (Forthcoming, March 2026). Chapter 21.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Crespo, D., M. Nemati, A. Dinar, Z. Frankel, and N. Halberg. 2025. “Sharing Colorado River Water: A View from Southern California.” ARE Update 28(4): 5–8. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. https://giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1746023594/21275/. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Avila, P., M. Nemati, D. Crespo, A.Dinar, Z. Frankel, N. Halberg. 2025.“Funding the Flow: Federal Water Conservation Investments in the Colorado River Basin.” ARE Update 28(4): 9–11. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. https://giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1746023869/21276/.</li> </ul> Georgia (Mullen, Hrozencik) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Hopson, M.,  J. D. Mullen, G. Colson, and L. Fowler. 2025.  “Impact of Terminology and Water Restrictions on Consumer Willingness to Pay for Potable Recycled Water in the U.S.,” Environmental Science & Technology 59 (13), 6534-6542 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.4c12023</li> </ul> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Mullen, Jeffrey D., and Mary Katherine Rubin*. 2024. "A Rapid Assessment Technique for Identifying Future Water Use and Pesticide Risks Due to Changing Cropping Patterns" Sustainability 16, no. 11: 4853. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su16114853">https://doi.org/10.3390/su16114853</a></li> </ul> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Hrozencik, A., Perez-Quesada, G., and Donahue, H2. 2025. The Development and Current Challenges of Irrigated Agriculture in the Western U.S. Agricultural Water Management, 315, p.109474. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109474">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109474</a></li> </ul> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Sloggy, M. R., Hrozencik, R. A., Manning, D. T., Goemans, C. G., & Claassen, R. L. (2025). Insurance and extraction incentives in a common pool resource: Evidence from groundwater use in the high plains. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 130, 103125.</li> </ul> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Ward, F. A., Potter, N. A., & Hrozencik, R. A. (2025). Managing agricultural water use in the Western United States: A search for efficient climate adaptation institutions. Agricultural Water Management, 308, 109279.</li> </ul>   Idaho (Maas) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Fuller, K. B., Adhikari, K., Crants, J., Frost, K., Gudmestad, N., Maas, A., ... & Stasko, A. (2025). The economic performance of soil health practices in potato production systems. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 40, e7.</li> </ul> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Parajuli, S., Maas, A., Tejeda, H., Impact of Plastic Bag Regulations on Consumer Expenditure for Unregulated Plastic Disposal Bags.  Poster Winner at the Agricultural Economics Association annual Meeting, July 2025. </li> </ul>   Illinois (Bhattarai, Kalita) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Khan, M., Bhattarai, R., & Chen, L. (2025). Discerning the Elevated Risk of Compound Extreme Heat Stress Followed by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Socially Vulnerable Communities in the Upper Midwest. International Journal of Climatology, e8868.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Khan, M., Bhattarai, R., & Chen, L. (2025). Detecting temporal shifts in extreme precipitation regime, and the implications for urban locations and major crops in Illinois. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 70(2), 334-346.</li> </ul>   Indiana (Gitau) <ul> <li>Gupta, V., S.M. Gruss, D. Cammarano, S.M. Brouder, P.A. Bermel, M.R. Tuinstra, M.W. Gitau, and R. Agrawal. 2024. Optimizing corn agrivoltaic farming through farm-scale experimentation and modeling. Cell Reports Sustainability 1(7), 100148. DOI: 10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100148.</li> <li>Torres, C., M.W. Gitau, J. Lara-Borrero, D. Paredes-Cuervo, and B, Daher. 2024. Urban FEW Nexus Model for the Otun River Watershed. Water 16(23), 3405. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16233405</li> </ul>   Kansas (Sampson, Hendricks, Cameron-Harp, Sorensen Montoya) <ul> <li>Edwards, E.C., Hendricks, N.P. & Sampson, G.S. (2025). The Capitalization of Property Rights to Groundwater. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 107(2): 390-410.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fajae.12494"> https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fajae.12494</a></li> <li>Cameron-Harp, M. V., & Hendricks, N. P. (2025). Efficiency and Water Use: Dynamic Effects of Irrigation Technology Adoption. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 12(2), 285–312.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/732140"> https://doi.org/10.1086/732140</a></li> <li>Biram, H. D., Tack, J. & Cameron-Harp, M.V. 2025. “Measuring the Impact of Hurricane Incidence on Agricultural Production Risk Using Insurance Data.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 107(5): 1438–1456. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.70008">https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.70008</a></li> <li>Perez-Quesada, Gabriela, Nathan P. Hendricks, Jesse Tack, and David R. Steward. 2024. “Adapting crop production to water scarcity.” Environmental Research Letters, 20: 014029.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad9abe"> https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad9abe</a></li> <li>Pates, N.J., N.P. Hendricks, and T.J. Lark. 2025. “Misclassification Error in Remote Sensing Matters: The Effect of Ethanol Plants on Local Cropland Transitions” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 50(3): 467-486.<a href="https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.347706"> https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.347706</a></li> </ul>   Michigan (Asher, Giri, Nejadhashemi, Srivastava, Ghane, Sears) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Ashim Datta, Brook Wilke, Christine Charles, Marc Hasenick, Tayler Ulbrich, Maninder Singh, Molly Sears, and G. Philip Robertson. “Crop performance and profitability for the initial transition years of a regenerative cropping system in the Upper Midwest USA.” (2025) Journal of Environmental Quality<a href="http://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.70084"> http://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.70084</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Younsuk Dong, Stewart Tucker, Gurjeet Singh, Nawab Ali, Najme Yazdanpanah, Josh Vander Weide, Molly Sears. (2025) “Optimizing Soil Moisture Sensor Placement Through Spatial Variability Analysis in Orchards.” Smart Agricultural Technology<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/kwnsfk27.r.eu-west-1.awstrack.me/L0/https:*2F*2Fdoi.org*2F10.1016*2Fj.atech.2025.101273/1/0102019881e2d26b-b09d7b8f-3aa7-464d-b177-0746639b303d-000000/ZzqizxHHw2hUe5MH_xVXda8oicM=438__;JSUlJQ!!HXCxUKc!08f-ymgXQHqB3TeoNfsp6SS2wsPnFBQEdf-tTKFYhzmk-Du8bgP7BYw6EE9AgUSOalRZNw2aeo0gkuFIFI4$"> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atech.2025.101273</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Jalali, Jamshid, Nishan Bhattarai, Jillian Greene, Tao Liu, Oskar Marko, Mirjana Radulovic, Molly Sears, Sean A. Woznicki. (2025) “Climate change threatens water resources for major crops in Serbia’s Danube Basin by mid-21st century.” Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies.<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825002290"> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825002290</a></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Kpodo, J, and  A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, 2025. Navigating Challenges/Opportunities in Developing Smart Agricultural Extension Platforms: Data Source, Compilation, and Conversion, Artificial Intelligence in Agriculture, 15: 426-448.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Razavi, H. R., G. Toscano,, A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, K. Deb, Lewis Linker, 2025. Next-Generation Techniques for Parameter Reduction in Water Resources Multiobjective Optimization, Environmental Modelling and Software, 193: 106651</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Deb, K., A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, G. Toscano, H. Razavi, and L. Linker, 2024. Leveraging innovization and transfer learning to optimize best management practices in large-scale watershed management, Journal of Environmental Modelling and Software, 180: 106161.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Ghane, E, Abdalaal, Y., Tehrani, A., 2025. Paired-field evaluation of a saturated buffer reveals significant water-quality benefits through upstream weir management. Agricultural Water Management. 109664. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109664  </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Dialameh, B., Ghane, E. Youssef. M. 2025. DRAINMOD predicted impact of climate change on hydrology, corn yield, and drainage design in the Western Lake Erie Basin, United States. Agricultural Water Management. 109641. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109641  </li> </ul>   Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Roberts, C., Gholson, D., Quintana‐Ashwell, N., Locke, M., Pieralisi, B., Spencer, G. D., Crow, W., & Krutz, L. J. (2025). Economic implications of reduced tillage and cover crops in the irrigated mid‐South. Agronomy Journal, 117(2), e70034.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Oku, E., Quintana Ashwell, N., Yun, S., Curt Lacy, R., & Jason Krutz, L. (2025). Adoption timing of water conserving irrigation practices in the Mississippi Delta: An application of duration analysis. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.</li> </ul>   Montana (Hagerty) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Bruno, Ellen, and Nick Hagerty (2025). “Anticipatory Effects of Regulating the Commons.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 132: 103183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103183.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Bruno, Ellen, and Nick Hagerty (2025). “California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act: What Are Its Early Impacts?” ARE Update 28(4): 2-4. https://s.giannini.ucop.edu/uploads/pub/2025/04/30/v28n4.pdf</li> </ul>   Nebraska (Rimsaite, Schoengold) (Rimsaite) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Jayasekera, D.H., Munde, S., Snow, D.D., and Rim&scaron;aitė, R., 2025. “Trends in nitrate contamination: Implications for communities reliant on groundwater for drinking.” Environmental Research Communications, 7(8), <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adf60e">https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adf60e</a>.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Melkani, A., Rim&scaron;aitė R., Brozović, N., and Mieno T., March 2025. “Economic impact of groundwater regulation: Case study of Nebraska,” Blog. Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, <a href="https://waterforfood.nebraska.edu/news-and-events/news/2025/03/economic-impact-of-groundwater-regulation-case-study-of-nebraska">https://waterforfood.nebraska.edu/news-and-events/news/2025/03/economic-impact-of-groundwater-regulation-case-study-of-nebraska</a>. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Williss, R., Rim&scaron;aitė, R., Aiken, D., Knutson, C., and Brozović, N., 2025. “Primary water rights systems in the United States,” Infographic. Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, <a href="https://go.unl.edu/water-rights">https://go.unl.edu/water-rights</a>.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Williss, R., Rim&scaron;aitė R., Melkani, A., Brozović, N., 2025. “Irrigation and yield stability,” Infographic. Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, <a href="https://go.unl.edu/irrigation-yield">https://go.unl.edu/irrigation-yield</a>.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Williss, R., Rim&scaron;aitė R., Melkani, A., Brozović, N., 2025. “Commonly irrigated crops in the US,” Infographic. Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, <a href="https://go.unl.edu/irrigated-crops">https://go.unl.edu/irrigated-crops</a>. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Williss, R., Rim&scaron;aitė R., Melkani, A., Brozović, N., 2025. “Common irrigation methods in the US,” Infographic. Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, <a href="https://go.unl.edu/irrigation-methods">https://go.unl.edu/irrigation-methods</a>. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Rim&scaron;aitė R., May 2025. “Considering energy costs in irrigated agriculture.” Irrigation Today, Economy column, <a href="https://irrigationtoday.org/features/considering-energy-costs-in-irrigated-agriculture/">https://irrigationtoday.org/features/considering-energy-costs-in-irrigated-agriculture/</a>. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Rim&scaron;aitė R., August 2025. “Irrigation technology development and adoption challenges.” Irrigation Today, Economy column, <a href="https://irrigationtoday.org/features/irrigation-technology-development-and-adoption-challenges/">https://irrigationtoday.org/features/irrigation-technology-development-and-adoption-challenges/</a>. </li> </ul> (Schoengold) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Khanal, B., T. Mieno, K. Schoengold, and D.S. Bullock (2025) “Using Precision Conservation to Target Land Retirement: Incorporating spatially variable profit and crop insurance premiums” (Accepted for publication at Science of the Total Environment), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179315.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Mavroutsikos, C., K. Schoengold, A. Yiannaka, S. Banerjee, K. Giannakas, and T. Awada (2025) “The Role of Spatially Varying Descriptive Norms on Public Valuation of Ecosystem Services Associated with Improved Soil Health: A Discrete Choice Experiment on Nudging” (Accepted for publication at Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics), DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356159.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Spor Leal, L., T. Roy, D. Uden, K. Schoengold (2024) “Hydrological Impacts of the Conservation Reserve Program - A Mini Review”, Frontiers in Water, DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1506255.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Jayasekera, D. H., Powers, C., Aiken, J. D., Schoengold, K., & Rim&scaron;aitė, R. (2024, September 15). Nitrate contamination in Nebraska’s drinking water. The Water Report, 247, 1–11. <a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.thewaterreport.com/current-issues/__;!!PvXuogZ4sRB2p-tU!D8gjGUSWy-gDrjL-nUWQOYKRfrGYk0MY8gkEu5IktPu85Ol13gqbKumH_NE1179nIdkv7Sgc9nKjs_SZDSpn2qh0od28zQ$">https://www.thewaterreport.com/current-issues/</a></li> </ul>   Oklahoma (Jafarzadegan, Lambert) <ul> <li>Lambert, LH, Y Yao, & LR Levers (2025). Optimal cropping patterns and intertemporal groundwater usage under extraction constraints in Oklahoma’s Panhandle. Agricultural Water Management 313. DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109472</li> <li>Lambert, DM, B Golden, L Lambert, B Guererro (2025). The impacts of a local enhanced management area on groundwater use for crop production. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.358997</li> <li> Lambert, DM, LH Lambert, J Ripberger, H Jenkins-Smith, CL Silva (2025). Public support for producer adoption of soil health practices. Agriculture and Human Values 42(2): 1045-1061. DOI: 10.1007/s10460-024-10660-6</li> </ul>   South Carolina (Jeong, Khedun) <ul> <li>Jeong, Dawoon; Scaroni, Amy E.; and Motallebi, Marzieh (2025) "Assessing Septic Service Availability and Pricing across Coastal South Carolina," Journal of South Carolina Water Resources: Vol. 10 : Iss. 1 , Article 2. Available at: https://open.clemson.edu/jscwr/vol10/iss1/2</li> </ul>   Tennessee (Perez Quesada) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Hrozencik, A., Perez-Quesada, G., and Donahue, H2. 2025. The Development and Current Challenges of Irrigated Agriculture in the Western U.S. Agricultural Water Management, 315, p.109474. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109474">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109474</a></li> </ul>   Texas (Wilcox, Dominguez, Rouhi Rad) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Atalar, F., P. A. M. Leite*, and B. P. Wilcox. 2025. A comparison of three methodologies for determining soil infiltration capacity in thicketized oak woodlands and adjacent grasslands. Water 17:518.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Wang, H.-H., W. E. Grant, A. G. Birt, and B. P. Wilcox. 2025. Modeling rangelands as complex adaptive socio-ecological systems: An agent-based model of pyric herbivory. Ecological Modelling 501:111020.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;"> Kelly, A. R*., P. A. M. Leite, J. W. Walker, and B. P. Wilcox. 2025. Long-Term Legacy of Juniper Encroachment: Increased Infiltration and Reduced Compaction a Decade After Mortality. Rangeland Ecology & Management 103:71-77.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Leite, P. A. M. *, D. M. Rempe, K. J. McInnes, L. M. Schmidt, J. W. Walker, H. G. Olariu, and B. P. Wilcox. 2025. Trees Enhance Rock Moisture Storage: A Major Pool in Karst Drylands and Crucial During Droughts. Water Resources Research 61:e2024WR038692.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Olariu, H. G. *, B. P. Wilcox, and S. C. Popescu. 2025. Linking Woody Plants, Climate, and Evapotranspiration in a Temperate Savanna. EGUsphere 2025:1-35.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Bahrami, S., Rouhi Rad, M., and R. M. Nayga Jr., (2025). Dollars for Drops: Abatement Cost of Water for Irrigation in the Colorado River Basin. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, PP.1-16.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Rouhi Rad, M., Li, L., Woodward, R.T., (2025) Non-Market Valuation of Environmental Resources: An Introduction. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Busari, I., Sloggy, M.R., Rouhi Rad, M., Sahoo, D., Drury, S.A. and Escobedo, F.J., (2025). Modeling Wildfire Effects on Ecosystem Services in two Disparate California Watersheds and Communities. Environmental Management, pp.1-21</li> </ul>   Washington (Cook, Yoder) <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Basu, R., M. Brady, J. Cook, J. Gifford, K. Rajagopalan, and J. Yoder. “An agent-based model for assessing agricultural water market structure and function.” Water Resources and Economics, accepted Sept 2025.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;">Khan, R. A, M. Brady, B. Singh, M. Yourek, J. Yoder, J. Cook, G. Yorgey, and K. Rajagopalan. 2025. “Concurrent irrigation pauses can create stream flow pulses for fish during critical low-flow periods.” Water Resources Research, 61 e2024WR039127. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024W</li> </ul>

Impact Statements

California (Dinar, Mahajan, Edwards, Ying, Nemati, Schwabe, D'odorico) The intended long-term outcomes over the current reporting period were to develop models that identify the consequences of alternative water management strategies and policies on agricultural productivity, ecosystem services, and human health under a variety of environmental, economic, and institutional scenarios.
California (Dinar, Mahajan, Edwards, Ying, Nemati, Schwabe, D'odorico) The combination and comparison of different approaches to assess the impact of climate change and the effectiveness of different levels of adaptation (on-farm private adaptation, public adaptation, and political adaptation) allows a multidisciplinary collaboration, such as economists, engineers, political scientists, and others), leading to a better level of communication and guidance to the policymakers.
Georgia (Mullen & Hrozencik) Continued to engage with regional and state water resource policymakers to inform regional water planning and agricultural water conservation initiatives.
Georgia (Mullen & Hrozencik) Newly estimated forecasting models for irrigated acreage and water withdrawals will be used by regional Water Planning Councils to inform next year’s update of the State Water Plan.
Idaho (Maas) Through presentations and written information, I provided stakeholders with clearer insights into which policies foster long-term agricultural resilience. I have provided information directly to AgWest, the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, and the Colorado Department of Agriculture, supporting their efforts to evaluate water use, land-use change, and policy options. These efforts have already leveraged new resources, including an NSF-EPSCoR grant on land-use change and policy incentives, positioning the project to deliver long-term benefits by guiding more effective and equitable water management strategies.
Illinois (Bhattarai, Kalita) Our results indicate that there is a significant increasing trend in compound extreme precipitation events following extreme heat stress (CEPHS) occurrences, particularly in Kentucky, lower, central, and northern parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, central parts of Missouri, northern parts of Michigan, and western and north-eastern parts of Iowa from 1979 to 2021. Our analysis also underscores a robust association between CEPHS and convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. These insights offer valuable implications for flood hazard management strategies under climate change within the region.
Illinois (Bhattarai, Kalita) We used Fisher information theory, a novel approach, to identify regime shifts in R95 between 1950 and 2010. Notably, 50% of stations showed a significant shift primarily between 1965–1985, with increased R95 observed in northern and southern Illinois. Our results indicated that R95 had minimal impact on corn yield but showed a significant positive correlation with soybean yield. Regime shift analysis of R95 can play a crucial role in improving extreme value analysis and informing policy decisions.
Indiana (Gitau) Our results showed that a calibrated and validated APSIM crop model was well suited for use in simulating plant growth dynamics in areas where solar panels are installed, with reasonable accuracy (simulated average corn yield of 10,102 kg/ha compared with the measured 10,182 kg/ha). The model, thus, shows promise for use with co-production of other crops such as soybean and wheat, though further research is needed to determine suitable system configurations.
Kansas (Sampson, Hendricks, Cameron-Harp, Sorensen Montoya) We show that adoption of a more efficient irrigation had insignificant impacts on water withdrawals in the short run and reduced withdrawals in the long run. We also show that if depletion continues as it has, then corn and wheat production will decrease by 6.75% and 1.08% by 2050 in the High Plains Aquifer region due to depletion.
Michigan (Asher, Giri, Nejadhashemi, Srivastava, Ghane, Sears) Western Lake Erie Basin Performance-based Conservation Adoption Program ($12,000,000, MDARD): This initiative will accelerate the adoption of conservation practices across priority agricultural landscapes by linking financial incentives to measured water quality outcomes. It is expected to reduce nutrient and sediment loads into Lake Erie, enhance ecosystem health, and support sustainable agricultural productivity, ultimately improving drinking water quality and reducing harmful algal blooms that affect millions of residents.
Michigan (Asher, Giri, Nejadhashemi, Srivastava, Ghane, Sears) SHARE – Soil Health Advancement for Agricultural Resilience Enhancement ($1,274,910, MDARD): This project will enhance long-term agricultural resilience by advancing soil health practices that improve water retention, reduce nutrient loss, and increase crop productivity under variable climate conditions. Outcomes will include improved farm profitability, reduced environmental impacts, and strengthened food system sustainability through science-based soil health strategies adopted across Michigan’s working lands.
Michigan (Asher, Giri, Nejadhashemi, Srivastava, Ghane, Sears) USDA NIFA CARE – Increasing The Adoption of Controlled Drainage for Crop Production and Water-Quality Protection Using an Educational Decision-Support Tool ($300,000 USDA, project award no. 2024-68008-42638): This project aims to demonstrate the economic and water quality benefits of controlled drainage to stakeholders, encouraging broader adoption of this conservation practice. The decision-support tool being developed for the northeastern U.S. will estimate nitrogen removal from subsurface-drained farms and provide cost-benefit indices. By using local data, the tool will offer tailored evaluations of controlled drainage systems to support informed decision-making.
Mississippi (Quintana Ashwell) Identified and quantified wasteful irrigation application by Mississippi farmers driven by high temperatures even when soil moisture is adequate (received University award for research with most impact at the state level). Hosted W5190 members (Nebraska and Texas) to showcase key regulatory, environmental and agricultural differences associated with the use of water in agriculture. Plan to host at least one member per semester over the next cycle.
Missouri (Rotman) Developing a community engagement strategy for wetlands managers, with a focus on decision support for wetlands restoration and (re)establishment.
Missouri (Rotman) Presented on public participation GIS for watershed planning at Great Plains Water Conference at University of Nebraska-Omaha.
Montana (Hagerty) Continued to expand the ability of water users and managers to make sound decisions around resource management and based on an improved understanding of the relationships among surface water supplies, groundwater stocks and irrigated agriculture. Engaged with stakeholders through meetings, presentations, and outreach writing.
Nebraska (Rimsaite, Schoengold) Through research outputs, engagement with stakeholders relevant to agricultural water policy, the group’s visibility and thought leadership were advanced, which contributed to establishing new collaborations and getting new grants.
Oklahoma (Jafarzadegan, Lambert) Our work has supported water management in Oklahoma by sharing information with the Oklahoma Water Interim Study, studying best management practices (BMPs) for water quality in the Persimmon Creek watershed, exploring the cost and use of reproduced water from the oil and gas sector, and developing decision-support tools for deficit irrigation in the Oklahoma Panhandle. These efforts give producers and policymakers practical information to guide water use and conservation decisions.
South Carolina (Jeong, Khedun) Our research has supported local and state efforts in South Carolina by informing stakeholders—including farmers and government officials (such as those from the Department of Environmental Services)—through ongoing water-related meetings. We have also engaged closely with water extension agents and local community members to support informed decision-making for water conservation and water quality improvement.
Texas (Wilcox, Dominguez, Rouhi Rad, Guerrero) The Wilcox lab at Texas A&M has focused on understanding how changes in vegetation alter key ecohydrological variables including transpiration, stream runoff and recharge. We are focusing on two important aquifer systems in Texas: Edwards Aquifer and the Carrizo-Wilcox. We have determined that both systems are very sensitive to changes in surface cover including woody plant encroachment and urbanization. The intended long term outcomes are providing management agencies with information so that they can make appropriate decisions for sustaining the groundwater resources.
Washington (Cook, Yoder) We continue to engage with local decision-makers in Washington State, including the Department of Ecology, irrigation districts and local conservation districts. Our group also authored approximately 20 short “research highlight” briefs in the past reporting year, based on work from our recently-completed NIFA grant.