Climate change, with increased precipitation variability and drought conditions have led to uncertain water supplies and timing. Increases in urban and agricultural water use have put upward pressure on water demand as supplies have become more uncertain. With projected changes in the timing of precipitation and reduction of snowpack, declines in groundwater storage and availability, and increased competition for water resources, disentangling both the extent of water resource changes and the repercussions to water users is essential. Beyond knowing the extent of the problem, careful research also needs to be conducted on water management strategies that are effective and equitable. Given complexities in differing hydrological systems, as well as differences in water users and needs, it is not feasible to design universal management schemes that provide sufficient resources to all current and future water users (human and environmental), while preserving water quality. Historically, water management has suffered from a mismatch in spatial resolution, where water problems are local, but the management or policies are implemented at a much broader scale of political demarcation that may or may not coincide with relevant hydrological boundaries. Knowing the conditions under which water management policies are effective, and at what scale, remains critical.

Some twenty years ago, in its inaugural proposal, this committee anticipated that water conservation acquired through traditional cost-share conservation programs would be insufficient to meet the needs of growing non-agricultural water demands, particularly for environmental purposes. Despite the technical progress that has steadily improved irrigation efficiency, and the resulting reduction in applied water, irrigated acreage in the west has been declining alongside the supporting aquifers (Hrozencik and Aillery, 2021). Work from this group warned that the reliance on technical progress in the form of increased irrigation efficiency may not result in total water savings (Peterson and Ding, 2005; Huffaker, 2008; Ward, F. A., and M. Pulido-Velazquez. 2008; Warziniack and Brown 2019; Brown et al. 2019). The adoption of technological solutions has been incentivized with public funding with various degrees of success but generally at great cost.

Consequently, there is dissatisfaction with respect to the efficacy and effectiveness of the prevailing water allocation laws, institutions, and procedures to efficiently, equitably, and sustainably allocate water among emerging water uses and users. In recent work, our members have provided significant insights into existing and potential institutional water management arrangements. For instance, sharing information about nearby farmers’ groundwater use induced reductions in subsequent water use of 4% compared to farmers that did not receive comparison information (Hrozencik et al., 2023). The equity in outcomes of the allocations of water that result from established water and property rights in rural and indigenous communities in the face of water scarcity or uncertainty have also been assessed by our members (Sanchez, L., Leonard, B., & Edwards, E. C., 2023). This multistate committee will continue to evaluate alternative institutional arrangements to account for the emerging uncertainties related to water management, while also satisfying public equity requirements.

This proposal for W5190 lays out the plans to continue developing on its historic themes and expand based on important emerging issues. This iteration includes an explicit goal to contribute by developing data, measurement, and theoretical approaches to understand the factors that affect the value of water as a natural capital, as well as its use and non-use values (see Objective 2). Serving stakeholders is a goal of W5190. This group of stakeholders includes agricultural producers, irrigation, conservation, and water management districts, private water-supply organizations, state environmental/water quality management programs, federal agencies such as the Bureau of Reclamation, Army Corps of Engineers, USDA (e.g., NRCS, NIFA, RMA, and FSA) and the EPA, and non-governmental organizations such as the Western States Water Council, the Western Governors Association, and the Nature Conservancy. Potential collaborators include Trout Unlimited, Ducks Unlimited, The Nature Conservancy, Western States Water Council, conservation districts, groundwater management districts, and state agencies.

Across objectives, W5190 includes tasks aimed at explicitly reflecting the work its members will carry out in terms of translational economics in the form of outreach, extension, teaching, media, and policy briefing activities related to their respective areas of expertise. Translating the theoretical and empirical findings from this group is critical to inform water managers and policy makers at local, state, and federal levels. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) provides generational investments in ecosystem restoration and wildfire risk reduction; and the Inflation Reduction Act includes $4 billion for water management in the Colorado Basin in addition to $8.3 billion for drought mitigation in Western states. The investments in water management infrastructure and institutions must be informed by the economic and behavioral insights that emerge from work in this committee. We explicitly aim at producing such informative output over the next 5 years.

Although DEI has not been an explicit goal of our multi-state group, it has consciously increased the number of women, researchers of color, and early career participants. For example, in the inaugural W1190 report, 6 female participants were listed (20% of membership) in the project while our terminal W4190 membership counts 23 female economists (34% membership). In terms of leadership, the committee started with no female representation in the inaugural committee leadership to being represented in the last 3 years of W4190 and in the inaugural W5190. We do not ask members to self- identify in terms of demographics so we shall not provide an estimate with regard to other under-represented groups, but suffice it to mention that we have made conscientious efforts towards inclusion. Our proposal will continue these efforts by encouraging participation of underrepresented groups both in membership and leadership.

Importance of Work: The research proposed for W5190 responds to stakeholder needs for information and analysis, addressing national and regional priorities for water management. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) identified ten research questions to address the highest priority water resource and science challenges for the U.S. over the next 25 years (National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, 2018). Five of those questions relate directly to the research proposed for W5190: 1) How do human activities affect water quantity and quality; 2) How does changing climate affect water quality, quantity, and reliability, as well as water-related hazards and extreme events; 3) How can long-term water-related risk management be improved; 4) How do institutions, governance, and institutional resilience impact the quantity and quality of water; and 5) How can competing uses for water resources be managed and maintained to sustain healthy communities and ecosystems in a changing world. The National Strategy to Develop Statistics for Environmental- Economic Decisions, creates a system to account for natural assets and track their condition, quantify their value and understand their economic role in order to ultimately improve the nation’s ability to fight the climate crisis, build a strong and sustainable economy, and advance economic equity (White House, 2023). These topics are at the heart of the W5190 proposal.

Advantages of Multistate Collaboration: Research and outreach on water management lend themselves naturally to multistate collaborations particularly as rivers and groundwater aquifers do not respect state boundaries. Policymakers from adjacent states regularly work together to manage shared water resources; water resource researchers similarly collaborate across state boundaries to address shared water management challenges. The collaborative relationships facilitated by W5190 also improve the flow of information and ideas across state boundaries. Tools implemented successfully in one location can rarely be applied entirely to other locations without some adaptation to local circumstances, but inspiration for management approaches and institutions can often be found by examining what has worked well in other locations. This cross-fertilization and testing of new ideas also improves stakeholder engagement and facilitates transmission of knowledge from one generation of researchers to the next through mentorship.

Members of this multistate group have expressed an intention to work and collaborate in the following cross-state groupings (in no particular order): (i) Texas-Colorado-New Mexico; (ii) Montana-California; (iii) Kansas-Texas-Colorado-Nebraska-Tennessee; (iv) South Carolina-Tennessee-Indiana-Georgia-Delaware-Nebraska; (v) California-Oklahoma-Minnesota; (vi) Nebraska-Kansas-Missouri-South Dakota-Iowa; (vii) Mississippi-Louisiana-Arkansas-Missouri-Tennessee-Texas-Oklahoma; (viii) Missouri-Illinois-Montana-Oklahoma; (ix) Texas-Tennessee-Mississippi-Colorado-Georgia; (x) Kansas-California-Kentucky- -Nebraska-Oklahoma; (xi) Nebraska-Colorado-Rhode Island-South Carolina-Wyoming; (xii) Michigan-California-Kansas_Nebraska-Oklahoma-Texas-Ohio-Indiana-Illinois-New York-Wisconsin. We expect more combinations to emerge as the multistate group expands.

One of the goals of multi-state groups is to foster development of projects that can address the various agency priority areas. Our group has been successfully addressing these priority areas and securing extramural funding from various sponsors. Examples from the previous iteration of this project include dozens of funded grants totaling more than $7 million (see appendix A).

Technical Feasibility of the Proposed Research: The proposed research has a high degree of technical feasibility. Our multistate team includes water professionals with rigorous training in conceptual, theoretical, and applied aspects of biophysical sciences and water resource economics. Team members also have extensive experience analyzing water management practices, policies, and institutions. Current membership of W4190 includes 55 researchers from 26 states (half of which are located east of the 100 meridian, a region where water quantity concerns are now developing), USDA- ARS, USDA/FS, and USDC-NOAA; we anticipate many current W4190 members will sign up for W5190. Agricultural and natural resource economists comprise the largest portion of the team, followed by soil scientists. Solutions to water management challenges are often inherently interdisciplinary. We enthusiastically welcome colleagues from irrigation engineering, agronomy, and hydrology and water quality, as well as other social sciences besides economics.