Slow-moving stressors that have manifested over the past 40 years (e.g., population aging, industrial transformation, rising income inequality, affordable housing shortages, infrastructure decay, climate change) and short-term economic, environmental, and public health shocks (e.g., natural disasters, extractive industry booms and busts, the drug overdose crisis, COVID-19) have affected rural people and places differently than their urban counterparts due to greater concentrations of some vulnerable groups, less diversified economies, fewer local services, and cultural differences in rural areas. These shocks and stressors have important implications for human population change - fertility, health and mortality, and migration patterns. Yet, rural places are not monolithic, and we cannot assess problems, develop policies, or deliver adequate services to rural areas without understanding both rural-urban and within-rural variation. The overarching objectives of this 5-year project are to describe recent trends in rural population change and wellbeing; investigate the roles of contemporary health, environmental, and economic shocks and stressors in driving these changes; and identify how communities and institutions adapt to these challenges.

The Need, as Indicated by Stakeholders

The U.S. rural population is changing in size, composition, and structure. Population aging is occurring more rapidly in rural than in urban areas, rural areas are home to larger shares of older and sicker people, and rural-urban and within-rural disparities in health and mortality are large and growing. Rural areas are also depopulating, raising questions about the implications for the people and places left behind. However, the rural U.S. is diverse in racial/ethnic, age, and economic composition, health and wellbeing, and infrastructure. Indeed, many rural places are healthy and prosperous. Understanding the causes of this variation is critical to informing policies to improve outcomes in the places that are struggling.

This Committee has long been dedicated to addressing rural population issues that matter to policymakers, communities, and residents. Our objectives come in part from information gathered from stakeholders during meetings, briefings, field studies, and participation on other committees over the past five years. Committee members have consulted locally and at the highest levels of state and federal government as experts for the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP), task forces, advisory boards, and more. Through these meetings, we have heard from stakeholders concerned about the impacts of population aging, climate change, the drug overdose crisis, COVID-19, housing shortages, infrastructure challenges, Census 2020 data challenges, and various federal and state policy changes on rural communities. Accordingly, underlying our proposed work is a motivation to better understand drivers and consequences of rural population changes and adaptations in the context of health, economic, and environmental shocks and stressors. We highlight specific areas of need below:

Health and Aging: Rural people are sicker and die younger than their urban peers, a trend that has grown worse since the mid-2000s.^1,2 However, the causal mechanisms driving these trends, as well as within-rural variation in these trends, are not clear. Improving our understanding of the causes and consequences of rural health, aging, and disability is of high priority to the National Institute on Aging (NIA), a source of research support for several Committee members.³ Moreover, mental health receives less attention than other measures of health and well-being in the rural population sciences, a gap we aim fill. Social, economic and environmental shocks and stressors not only shape, but also risk exacerbating the rural health and mortality disadvantage. For example, COVID-19 threatens to widen the existing rural mortality penalty due to higher rural COVID-19 mortality rates.^4,5 Other shocks and stressors (e.g., overdose epidemic, climate change, housing shortages) are also critical foci for understanding rural health trends.

Economic Wellbeing: Rural people, places, and institutions face multiple enduring and emerging challenges to prosperity and well-being. This Committee has a long tradition of conducting research on rural economic wellbeing, with particular emphasis on labor markets, patterns of earnings, and household income. Efforts to understand economic wellbeing are intimately connected to demographic change. For example, the urbanization of America creates a demographic paradox of inequality. For urbanizing rural communities, economic prospects are bright, with higher education and income, lower poverty rates, and less population aging. Other rural communities are remote and isolated and often depend on extraction, low-wage manufacturing, and service industries.⁶ Both poverty rates and income inequality are important indicators of population level social and economic disadvantage.^7-13 Poverty signifies insufficient income to obtain the necessities of life. Inequality indicates broad exclusion from institutional opportunities and resources. Populations with high inequality are thought to have limited social mobility, unequal opportunities for civic engagement, and high risk of social disintegration. Thus, it is critical to understand both rural poverty and inequality and their sensitivity to public policy, infrastructural changes, and demographic change.

Infrastructure: Infrastructure is essential to wellbeing, encompassing housing, water systems, energy, transportation, communication systems, and access to food and healthcare. A recent survey of rural development practitioners (Extension, nonprofit leaders) identified physical infrastructure and services (especially broadband), economic development, workforce development, and health as priorities for the next five years.¹⁴ Communities across the U.S. are struggling with aging infrastructure,¹⁵ but those experiencing depopulation also face decreasing revenues and insufficient tax bases. With many rural places facing depopulation due to natural decrease and net out-migration,^16,17 the intersections of population change and physical infrastructure are ripe for applied research. Rural community- and household-level infrastructure have received renewed attention as a result of COVID-19, especially in terms of health care, housing security, and broadband,¹⁸ with implications for education, employment, and access to health care.

Environmental Challenges: The physical environment is an understudied but critical factor for understanding rural population and wellbeing trends. Our research on the impacts of local area environmental change and natural and humanmade disasters in the U.S. show the importance of rural-urban context in shaping community impacts.^19-21 The uneven distribution of resources and infrastructure necessary for effective planning, adaptation, and mitigation makes studying impacts of environmental shocks and stressors on wellbeing and health paramount for rural America. In particular, research is needed on the challenges facing resource-constrained and aging rural communities and their ability to respond to environmental shocks and stressors.¹⁹

Policy Responses and Challenges: In the face of shocks and stressors, effective governments are critical to ensuring resilient and sustainable rural communities.^22-26 We have previously shown that the impacts of federal policies vary between rural and urban areas and different types of rural communities.²⁷ In addition, we have shown that county governments play an important role in economic development²⁸ and adaptation to environmental and demographic changes.^29-31 This prior research makes clear the importance of a multiscalar government response to shocks and stressors. State-level policies can enhance or constrain local action. For example, state aid to localities and state standards for infrastructure and public health can promote rural wellbeing.^30,32 COVID-19 highlighted the importance of state policy choices on health and economic outcomes.^33-35 But states can also constrain local action, as seen through the increasing use of state preemption of local authority to enact public health, labor, tax, and environmental policies.^36-38 In interviews, state directors of local government associations explained how state policies constrained their ability to meet local needs related to infrastructure finance, environmental review, and broadband extension.³⁹

In sum, although we know a lot about the determinants of rural population change from our previous multi-state projects, research on rural population change and adaptation (including policy) within the context of contemporary health, economic, and environmental shocks and stressors lags behind. Moreover, rural people and places are more diverse than ever. The “new” rural America is characterized by significant variation in racial/ethnic, age, and economic composition, livelihoods, politics, and health. More interactions are occurring at the interface of rural and urban spaces.^40,41 In addition, different processes may be at play in generating change and adaptation at different spatial scales (e.g., neighborhoods, counties, labor markets, states).⁴² Research is needed to describe and explain how and why health, economic, and environmental shocks and stressors are differentially associated with rural population dynamics across different demographic groups, spatial units, and the rural-urban interface.

To address the needs outlined above, W5001 brings together scientists with expertise in rural demographic change (fertility, health and mortality, migration, composition) with those with interests in development, policy, and governance. As with our previous multi-state projects, our objectives are intentionally broad to enable us to incorporate stakeholder feedback as we refine and prioritize our research questions.

Importance of the Work and Consequences if it is Not Done

Rural communities are essential to food production, natural resource management, and environmental sustainability. Many multistate committees focus on solutions to challenges in these areas. However, the adoption and effectiveness of solutions depend on understanding demographic, social, and behavioral dynamics, and how differences and changes in these dynamics affect the implementation of science-based knowledge. The urgency of examining the trends discussed above has been heightened by contemporary macro-level economic, environmental, and public health shocks and stressors.

Better understanding the multilevel and multidimensional causes and consequences of rural population change and adaptation requires building interdisciplinary collaborations, recruiting and training new scholars with diverse perspectives, developing data and analytic resources, and disseminating findings to scholars, policymakers, and the public. W5001 brings together scientists with multiple disciplinary, theoretical, and methodological approaches to conduct comprehensive analyses of population processes affecting rural areas and provides stakeholders with policy-relevant findings. The needs outlined above are among the most pressing challenges of our time and are at the forefront of policy considerations for rural sustainability. In an era of heightened interest in rural America, our work provides critical context for scientists, policymakers, and rural community leaders who must decide where science-based knowledge and public interventions are required and what actions to take.

Technical Feasibility of the Research

The considerable accomplishments of our predecessor committees demonstrate our ability to collaborate effectively. In 2020, W4001 was awarded both the WAAESD and the National Excellence in Multistate Research Awards, substantiating the impact of our research and dissemination efforts. Our committee is prolific and has built a sustained multigenerational, multi-institutional, and multidisciplinary membership of rural population scholars. Many mid-career members were mentored by participants of predecessor committees and now mentor its early career scholars. In its first four years (2017-2021), W4001 produced six books; 235 peer-reviewed journal articles; 73 book chapters; 115 public briefs and op-eds; several data resources; and multiple capacity-building workshops for community organizations. Committee members secured nearly $22 million in research funding and an additional $3.5 million in research network funds to leverage multistate research support. We conducted 150+ presentations to stakeholders, including Congress, GAO, OMB, Office of Rural Health Policy, ONDCP, NASEM, NIH, state legislatures, regional rural development centers, and Cooperative Extension officials. Attesting to its global impact, our research has been covered in numerous high-impact media outlets (e.g., New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, CBS, US News, AP News, NPR, Forbes, Atlantic, Bloomberg, BBC, USA Today, The Guardian, The Conversation).

Collectively, our funded projects involve collaboration among multiple committee members, and are enhanced by our group’s research base, support, and mentorship. For example, related to W5001’s objectives, Committee members received a $1.6 million grant from the NIA to build an Interdisciplinary Network on Rural Population Health and Aging (2019-2024). The Network will enhance scholarly collaborations to build data and analytic resources, conduct policy-relevant research, and ensure sustained impact on rural population health and aging research.

We do not envision any new technical issues that would hinder the accomplishment of W5001’s proposed objectives. Over half of the members plan to participate in all three objectives with most of the rest participating in two objectives. Members have extensive experience compiling and analyzing large datasets from several sources and geographic scales. Many have skills in spatial analysis and using geographic information systems to map and analyze population patterns. Several members have qualitative research expertise to conduct field studies and in-depth interviews with rural community leaders and residents. In recent years, we have seen how Zoom can be used to successfully hold virtual or hybrid meetings. We had 39 attendees at our 2021 virtual annual meeting. Even after meetings return to in-person, we anticipate providing a virtual component to maximize attendance and participation.

Advantages of Doing the Work as a Multi-State Effort

The multi-state framework provides an essential venue for interdisciplinary research that is both national in scope and committed to understanding regional and local contexts of demographic change. W5001 is a large and diverse group of world-class leaders in rural population research whose work affects not only the West but stretches across the country, continent, and world. Our previous projects have demonstrated the distinct advantages of conducting our work as a multi-state effort. Our impacts have been multiple and broad in scope and have been seen locally, regionally, and nationally in a variety of fields in science, practice, and policy. At the time of our W5001 proposal submission, we have 31 investigators at 19 institutions with expertise in sociology, demography, economics, geography, public health, regional planning and development, social work, policy, and Extension (Several more Appendix E requests are in process). Many members come from universities that are not traditional multi-state project participants. Our expanded membership over time has widened the scope and impact of our research from the rural West. Our research activities are now informed by in-depth knowledge of the Pacific Northwest, Mountain West, northern Great Plains, upper Great Lakes, Mississippi Delta, Appalachia, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Several committee members hold Extension appointments, and their expertise provides on-the-ground, stakeholder-informed knowledge of issues facing different rural communities and planning needs of county, state, and regional agencies. Although collaborations take place year round, input on ongoing and new research occurs during well-attended annual meetings (15-20 attendees annually), which we hold in geographically diverse locations to enable involvement and input from community stakeholders from different regions. These annual education, training, and networking opportunities have helped applied scholars, some in traditionally under-resourced institutions, to build capacity to use data, understand rural population change, and inform rural development policies and practices.  

Likely Impacts from Successfully Completing the Work

W5001 will provide timely science-based knowledge about the social, economic, and health contexts within which public policy operates in our diverse and changing rural populations. We will draw attention to how demographic change plays out unevenly and how recent health, environmental, and economic shocks and stressors have been experienced differently across various segments of the U.S. rural population. Our primary goal is the production of high-impact policy-relevant research that informs users about current demographic trends and their implications for rural policy. We aim for a broad stakeholder audience and will continue our strong record of impact described below. Ultimately, our work is critical to helping policymakers decide where public intervention is most needed, and the forms such actions might take.

The impacts of W4001 (our predecessor committee) through our research, new data resources, and outreach have been numerous. We were among the first to identify rising rural opioid overdose rates and explanations for those trends, leading to rapid resource allocation to rural areas. Our research has informed anti-poverty policies, leading to changes in official measurements of poverty and underemployment, and ultimately, how safety net resources are distributed. We were the first to show that the rural population was shrinking due to young adult outmigration, fewer births, and increased mortality. This research shaped outreach aimed at federal policy audiences through USDA’s Rural America at a Glance and the Agricultural and Rural Prosperity Task Force, increasing the likelihood that federal rural development programs are adapted to population trends. Our disaster resilience research and outreach informed placement and training of community health workers after the Deepwater Horizon disaster, resulting in enhanced preparedness and capacity. W4001’s Net Migration Patterns for U.S. Counties Database is the go-to website for county age-specific net migration trends (350,000+ visits; 8,000+ data downloads; 360,000+ maps and charts created). Multiple stakeholders report that they use these data to understand market demand and resource needs and to inform planning, program and infrastructure development, and resource allocation. Reflecting our broad scope and ability to respond rapidly to challenges, W4001 was among the first to provide essential information about COVID-19’s effects on rural communities, which included journal publications, public briefs, and presentations on geographic disparities in testing, case, death, and vaccination rates; rural vulnerabilities related to age and chronic disease prevalence; economic impacts; spread of misinformation; and implications of reopening. These are just a few examples of the types of impacts we anticipate for W5001.