Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

Jisang Yu and Nelson Villoria are working on the Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates: In this paper, they estimate how farmland rental rates are affected by the changes in tariffs that U.S. export crops face. Using annual county-level data of cash rents for non-irrigated fields in 2,534 U.S. counties, the authors first directly estimate the impact of tariff changes on cash rents. The findings indicate that one percent increase in ad valorem equivalent localized tariff reduces cash rental rates by about 4.2% of the 2017 average. The authors also provide the predicted changes in cash rental rates caused by the 2018 Chinese retaliatory soybeans tariff using the estimated impact of localized tariff changes. They expect to have it under review in the summer of 2020.

As part of the FAPRI group, Jarrett Whistance and Alvaro Durand-Morat collaborate the U.S. Baseline Outlook, which provides 10-year projections for agricultural and biofuel markets. The Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program (AGREP) at the University of Arkansas, led by Dr. Durand-Morat, provides the international rice market projections that are used by FAPRI to calibrate the U.S. agricultural and biofuel models.

Dr. Durand-Morat and Dr. Lanier Nalley are working on a number of projects looking at the efficiency of international rice markets. We are conducting market research in Congo, Ghana, Nigeria, Mozambique, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Honduras, and Puerto Rico, collecting consumer survey data and rice samples to ascertain if rice is price efficiently in these markets according to the quality of the rice traded. We are writing 3 manuscripts for peer-reviewed publications and expect to send them for review in 2020. Dr. Durand-Morat and Dr. Nalley are also working on a project looking at the return on investment of Checkoff rice funds in Arkansas and its impact on AR rice competitiveness.

In 2019, Dr. Durand-Morat and Dr. Ribera were part of a team that put together the Choices’ theme issue “The Agricultural Production Potential of Latin America: Implications for Global Food Supply and Trade.”

Grant Awards

• “Scientific Exchanges Fellowship Program.” USDA-FAS (Co-PI), J. Beghin, A. Bianchini, L. Calegare, R.E. Goodman, C. Gustafson, B. Martinez, L. Nogueira and S. Wegulo, $400,000. September 2019 – September 2021.
• “Effects of China’s Trade Policies on U.S. Distillers’ Dried Grains.” International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium Annual Meeting, December 2019, presented by Lia Nogueira
• "Ranking the Top US and Global Agri-Food Trade Shocks: A Panel Data Econometric Assessment," Funded by: Office of the Chief Economist, USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2018 - Sep. 30, 2019; PI: Jason Grant; Co-PIs: Mary Marchant, Everett Peterson, and David Orden.
• "Developing a Linked Global-Spatial Crop and Livestock Simulation Model and International Trade Elasticity Estimation," Funded by: Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), USDA; Performance Period: Sep. 30, 2019 - Dec. 31, 2020; PI: Jason Grant; Co-PIs: Mary Marchant, Charlotte Emlinger, Everett Peterson, and David Orden.
• Title: Analysis of Agricultural Markets and Policies. Agency: USDA, Office of Rural Development. 2019. Amount: $75,000. PI: Alvaro Durand-Morat; CO-PI: Eric Wailes.

Seminars/Conference Sections

• C-FARE Webinar, September 2019. “Changes in the Multilateral Trading System: Impacts to US Agriculture”. I organized and moderated this for C-FARE, with Amanda Countryman and Jason Grant as two of the presenters. Link: https://www.cfare.org/new-blog/trade2019webinar
• IATRC Theme Day, December 2019, “Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis”. I organized this with Jason Grant on behalf of IATRC, Nelson Valloria was a discussant, and Amanda Countryman was a panelist. Link: http://iatrcweb.org/
• Westhoff, P., B. Soon and T. Davids. “A Hybrid Model Approach to Estimating Impacts of China’s Tariffs on U.S. Soybeans.” Annual meetings of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Atlanta, GA. July 22, 2019. Available at https://www.fapri.missouri.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/hybrid-model-aaea.pdf.
• Whistance, Jarrett, Seth Meyer, Wyatt Thompson, and Deepayan Debnath. “Year-Round E15: Could a Policy to Expand E15 Use Become a Disincentive Unto Itself?” Selected for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium. Washington, D.C. December 8-10, 2019.

Ali, R.B., J. Luckstead, A. Durand-Morat, and E. Wailes. The Impacts of Trade and Self-Sufficiency Policies on Heterogeneous Rice Farms in Malaysia. Review of Development Economics 23:1659–1673. 2019.

Ali, R.B., A. Durand-Morat, E. Wailes, and J. Luckstead. Self-Sufficiency and International Trade Policy Strategies in the Malaysian Rice Sector: Approaches to Food Security Using Spatial Partial Equilibrium Analysis. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, 16(1), June 2019.

Bajrami, E., E.J. Wailes, B. Dixon, A. Musliu, and A. Durand-Morat. Do coupled subsidies increase milk productivity, land use, herd size and income? Evidence from Kosovo. Studies in Agricultural Economics 121: 134-143. 2019. https://doi.org/10.7896/j.1913.

Baylis, Kathy, Linlin Fan and Lia Nogueira. 2019. “Agricultural Market Liberalization and Household Food Security in Rural China.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 101(1):250-269, https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay031

Clements, Y., D. Calil, and L. Ribera. “Brazil’s Agricultural Production and Its Potential as Global Food Supplier.” Choices. 3rd Quarter 34:3 (2019).

Countryman, A.M., and A. Muhammad (2018) “Chinese Trade Retaliation May Diminish U.S. Wine Export Potential” Choices 33(2): 1-7.

DeLong, K.L., K.L. Jensen, A.P. Griffith, and E. McLeod. 2019. “Beef Cattle Farmers’ Marketing Preferences for Selling Local Beef.” Agribusiness: an International Journal, 35(3):343-357. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21579

De Matteis, M.C., T.E. Yu, C.N. Boyer and K.E. DeLong. 2019. “Analyzing Determinants of U.S. Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles Exports.” Agribusiness: An International Journal, 35(2):168-181.

Durand-Morat, A. “Agricultural Production Potential in Southern Cone: Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay” Choices. 3rd Quarter 34:3 (2019).

Durand-Morat, A., E.C. Chavez, and E.J. Wailes. World and U.S. Rice Baseline Outlook, 2018–2028. B.R. Wells Arkansas Rice Research Studies (2018): 412-423. Agricultural Experiment Station. Fayetteville, Arkansas. August 2019.

Hejazi, M., M.A. Marchant, J. Zhu and X. Ning. 2019. "The Decline of U.S. Export Competitiveness in the Chinese Meat Import Market." Agribusiness: An International Journal Special Issue "The Twenty-First Century Agribusiness in China." 35(1):114-126. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21588

Kennedy, P.L., A. Schmitz, and K.L. DeLong. 2019. “Biotechnology and Demand Concerns: The Case of Genetically Modified Sugar Beets.” AgBioForum, 22(1): 1-13. http://www.agbioforum.org/v22n1/v22n1-kennedy.htm

Marchant, M.A. and H.H. Wang, co-editors, 2018. "U.S.–China Trade Dispute and Potential Impacts on Agriculture" Theme Issue, Choices. 2nd Quarter 33:2(2018), 36 pages. This theme issue was awarded the 2019 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Quality of Communication Award.

McKay, L., K.L. DeLong, K.L. Jensen, A.P. Griffith, C.N. Boyer, and D.M. Lambert. 2019. “Restaurant Willingness to Pay for Local Beef." Agribusiness: an International Journal, 35(4): 610-624. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21605

McLeod, E., K.L. Jensen, K.L. DeLong, and A.P. Griffith. 2019. “A Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes Analysis of Beef Cattle Farmers’ Information Use.” Journal of Extension, 57(3):1-13. https://www.joe.org/joe/2019june/a2.php

Muhammad, A., J. Thompson, and K.L. DeLong. In Press. “Implications of KORUS on U.S. beef in South Korea.” International Journal of Trade and Global Markets. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTGM.2020.10023006

Muhammad, A., B. Meade, D.R. Marquardt, & D. Mozaffarian (2019) “Global Patterns in Price Elasticities of Sugar-sweetened Beverage Intake and Potential Effectiveness of Tax Policy: A Cross-sectional Study of 164 Countries by Sex, Age and Global-income Decile” BMJ Open 9:e026390. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026390.

Muhammad, A., & A. Countryman (2019) “In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: Impacts of Fraud on Wine Imports in China” Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 63: 742-58. doi:10.1111/1467-8489.12333.

Nguyen, L. and H. W. Kinnucan. 2019.  The US Solar Panel Anti-Dumping Duties Versus Uniform Tariff. Energy Policy 127: 523-532.

Nguyen, L. and H. W. Kinnucan. 2018.  World Price Transmission for Differentiated Products: The Case of Shrimp in the U.S. Market. Marine Resource Economics 33: 351-372.

Nguyen, L. and H. W. Kinnucan. 2018.  Effects of Income and Population Growth on Fish Price and Welfare. Aquaculture Economics and Management 22: 244-263.

Okpiaifo, G., A. Durand-Morat, G.H. West, L.L. Nalley, R.M. Nayga, and E.J. Wailes. “Consumers’ preferences for sustainable rice practices in Nigeria.” Global Food Security 24. Available online December 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.100345.

Sharma, A.* J.H. Grant, and K.A. Boys. 2019. “The Bright Side of the Generalized System of (Trade) Preferences: Lessons from Agricultural Trade,” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 44(1): 32-61.

Song, Baohui and Mary A. Marchant, in press/2019. “Enhancing Student Learning Using an International Trade Simulation Project." North American Colleges and Teachers of Agriculture (NACTA) Journal- Special Issue “Engaging Students in Global Agriculture.”

Soon, B.M., and W. Thompson. “Japanese Beef Trade Impact from BSE Using a Time-Varying Armington Model.” Agribusiness: an International Journal 1-17. 2019.

Soon, B.M., and W. Thompson. “Non-Tariff Measures and Product Differentiation: Hormone-Treated Beef Trade from the United States and Canada to the European Union.” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 1-15. July 22, 2019. DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12200.

Soon, B.M., P. Westhoff, and W. Thompson. “The Impact of Potential Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement Renegotiation on the Korean Rice Market and Trade.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 1-16. 2019.

Thompson, Wyatt, Joe Dewbre, Simone Pieralli, Kateryna Schroeder, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, and Patrick Westhoff. “Long-Term Crop Productivity Response and Its Effects on Cereal Markets.” Food Policy 84: 1-9. 2019.

Wang, P., H.W. Kinnucan, and P.A. Duffy. 2019.  The Effects of Rising Labour Costs on Global Supply Chains: The Case of China’s Cotton Yarn Industry. Applied Economics 51: 3608-3623.

Westhoff, P., T. Davids and B.M. Soon. “Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs.” Choices (Quarter 4, 2019). Available online: http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-farm-income-and-government-programs

Westhoff, Patrick, Scott Gerlt, Jarrett Whistance, Julian Binfield, Sera Chiuchiarelli, Hoa Hoang, Wyatt Thompson, Seth Meyer, Jong-Ik Kim, and Abigail Meffert. “Baseline Update for International Dairy, Livestock and Biofuel Markets.” FAPRI-MU Report 4-19. 2019.

Yoonho Choi, and E. Kwan Choi, “Quality Wars in the North,” World Economy 42 (2019), 2026-2938.

Yu, T.E., B. Sharma, and B.C. English. 2019. “Investigating Lock Delay on the Upper Mississippi River: a Spatial Panel Analysis.” Networks and Spatial Economics, 19:275-291.

Yu, T.E., T. Tong, and L. Kennedy. “Assessing the Potential Trade Impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.” Proceedings of the Chinese Economists Society’s Annual Conference, Dalian, China. June 8-9, 2019.

Zhang, Wei* and Mary A. Marchant, in press/2019. “U.S.-China Sorghum Trade Analysis within the Trade Conflict: Growth, Trends, and Forecast.” Journal of Management Policy and Practice (JMPP). (* denotes graduate student/postdoctoral scholar)