Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

Key events from this year’s meeting include the University of Wisconsin taking responsibility for the secretary position (either Deller or Conroy) which then evolves into the chair of the project; introduction and remarks from our new project Administrative Advisor, Margaret (Peggy) Brennan, and discussion of where to hold next year’s meeting. 

Peggy Brennan noted that while we (NE 1749) have done a lot of varied work as individuals, we need to identify a few key areas that are driving rural economic development and helping rural communities thrive, then what policies can we propose supported by that research.  Steve Deller noted that one of the strengths of this group is diversity, but most of us have extension appointments so it’s hard to predict what we’ll be working on 5-years from now because of the respective state demands.  He also noted that this group is very beneficial to develop collaborations.  Mark Skidmore reinforced this sentiment, saying he benefits a lot by hearing of the varied projects in which others in the group are involved.  It was agreed that the project’s objectives and methods should be focused more concisely.  After subsequent discussion within the group, we are working to focus the project’s mission/rationale around the central concept of "rural resiliency" with sub-themes relating and connecting the variety of research the various members are conducting. 

Station reports were presented for Wisconsin, Idaho, Missouri, Michigan State, Ohio State, Yong Chen, Heather Stephens, Anders Colorado State, Georgia, Oklahoma State, and New Hampshire. 

Accomplishments:  One of the major accomplishments over the past year was the successful termination of our previous multistate project NE 1049 (Community Health and Resilience) and the development of our new project, stemming from the working group of our 2017 meeting in Santa Fe.  The proposal for the new project was drafted in summer of 2017 and subsequently approved.  Key objectives of NE 1749 are:  1) Enhancing rural economic opportunities and entrepreneurship and 2) Factors and Policies affecting the resiliency of Rural Communities. 

     Objective 1:  The University of Missouri is addressing issues of wealth/income distribution.  The impact of tax and expenditure limits (TELS) on funding of education, which affects human capital development and contributes to private wealth, and its potential role in income inequality are important areas of study. Wisconsin, Missouri, and University of Nebraska-Omaha are collaborating to investigate the impact of TELs on inequality. Preliminary findings indicate that TELS are related to higher income inequality.  The study focuses on whether a relationship exists and does not address whether this is an intended or unintended consequence.  

University of Wisconsin research has proceeded along three lines: effects of TELS on state performance with an eye toward unintended consequences, entrepreneurship with a focus on rural outcomes, and regional economic structure on stability and resilience.  Researchers also finished work on the relationship between local foods and community well-being.  At the University of New Hampshire, research on local foods and community well-being is progressing and will be on-going through the next year.

Researchers at North Carolina State University have examined returns to Federal broadband infrastructure investments and estimate a roughly 7-8% rate of return on rural broadband investments, but that these returns are largely confined to communities located in counties adjacent to metro areas.  Ongoing research focuses on the impact of state and local promotion programs on the performance of local food systems.

Researchers at Colorado State University are using a dual focus on rural and urban areas to leverage neglected symmetries and synergies between traditionally disparate geographies as this may be key to unlocking untapped potential for economically-marginalized populations in both the city and countryside.  Past work identified issues like perceived access barriers for food insecure populations in remote rural and inner-city areas to understanding the differential market dynamics faced by rural economic sectors such as banking and tourism to identifying and supporting new links between San Luis Valley agriculture and the urban brewing industries.  Work going forward will focus on a core theme: to partner with colleagues in other states to understand and bridge the rural-urban divide that has become increasingly apparent in recent years.  Work is also continuing to analyze the dynamics and potential for job creation of both inner-city and rural areas with structured analytics that demonstrated the job, income, and value-added potential of oft-overlooked initiatives such as the food supply and brewing material chains needed to support Denver’s new Food Plan and the nationally recognized craft brew sector, brownfield redevelopment, and retail opportunities in central Denver.  In partnership with Oklahoma State University, CSU created economic benchmarks of different food marketing strategies, aggregated as direct, intermediated and combined direct-intermediated, but also broken down by scale.  These benchmarks of profitability and technical efficiency will be published in the coming year, and are the basis for continued work on standardized performance benchmarks for the sector.  Our hope is use the new USDA ERS local foods survey to do more detailed benchmarks in the future, though initial work with the data shows there are some data sample limitations. 

     Objective 2:  Researchers in North Dakota have focused on policies and strategies contributing to the viability and resiliency of communities in responding to economic and policy changes as well as natural and human-made shocks. They examined the impact of Bakken region shale oil development on water use and found that increased industrial water use for oil production and increased domestic use of water by the growing population in western North Dakota had limited impacts on the region’s water resources.  Researchers also tested the social disruption hypothesis by examining the relationship between rural crimes and shale oil development at the Bakken using county-level data for Montana and North Dakota from 2000 through 2014. Results found statistically significant evidence of increased aggravated assaults, burglaries, larcenies, and motor vehicle thefts in shale-oil producing counties during the boom.  

 At the University of Nevada, Reno a number of areas were researched, including developing Social Accounting Matrix model to coordinate solutions at the ranch level to a regional Computable General Equilibrium model; developing procedures to incorporate risk into solar energy investments and the impact of potential changes in income tax policies on these investments; developing procedures to estimate potential loss of economic impacts by a new lithium mine if closed by sage grouse habitat; and estimating economic, employment, and labor income impacts to a rural five-county study area if expansion of Fallon Naval Air Station airspace for training is enacted.

At the University of Missouri, researchers addressed the question of why some areas are lagging in recovering from the recession, what we learned from the recession, and what policies aided resilience and recovery.  Using a panel of 15 years of data from the budgets of 89 rural counties, researchers are focusing on the effects of recessions on local government budgets.  Using trends in fiscal ratios, they are attempting to identify 1) counties in which fiscal stress is related to long run trends, prior to the recession, and trends beginning with the recession, 2) tax or expenditure budget structures that lead to faster or slower budget recovery.   Missouri is working with Iowa State, Kansas State, and Michigan State to identify policies that have helped or hindered county government recovery from recession, and to identify innovative responses to fiscal stress.    

Michigan, Wisconsin and Missouri are focusing on impacts of pension reductions on rural areas.  Existing research focuses on the impacts on public budgets or on individual retirees.  Using IRS data on tax returns by county the original analysis focused on NC states because of the potential bankruptcy of a multiemployer pension funds with large memberships in those states. They also selected 8 counties with a variety of characteristics in MN, MI, WI  and MO for IMPLAN analysis.  The analysis is funded by the North Central Rural Development Center and a webinar was produced:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_lxvVIhYKQ&feature=youtu.be  They are now extending the analysis using a multivariate for the United States.   

 Researchers at Colorado State University have joined a Rural-Urban Initiative launched by CSU and Denver University.  Upcoming 2018 and 2019 events will start, inform, and enhance the dialogue between rural and urban areas on how the policy, regulatory and technical support environment differentially affects rural areas. Top of Form

 Researchers at the University of New Hampshire continue researching the economics of the changing solid waste management landscape.  Newer findings highlight the problems in managing plastic bags (film) and in implementing pay as you throw and single stream management systems. 

Short-term Outcomes: Examples of research products of group members presented for use by local government, policy makers, etc.:

 Thilmany, D., B. Jablonski, J. O’Hara and B. Raison.  Farm to School and your Local Economy: How can you Explore the Linkages?  Session for the 2018 National Farm to School Conference.  Cincinnati, OH. April 2018.

 Roy, P., B.Angelo, D. Thilmany, and B. Jablonski, Navigating strategic food system change: A road map for community food and agriculture plans.  National Good Food Conference. Albuquerque, NM. March 2018.

 B.B.J. Jablonski, G. Graff and D. Thilmany. Colorado Blueprint of Food and Agriculture Release Presentation. CSU AgInnovation Summit 2.0.  September 2017. Posted here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LndsyySdXyc&feature=youtu.be

Thilmany, D., D. Hughes, K. Keck and A. Hodges. “Framing an Economic Evaluation of Tribal Food System Initiatives,” Joint program with Oklahoma State University and the Choctaw Nation.  April 2017.

 Thilmany, D., A. Morales. D. Tropp, A. Bauman, and S. Schaffstall. “Evaluating Economic Impacts of Local and Regional Food Systems,” In-Service Training for Growing Food Connections. Las Cruces, New Mexico.  February 2017.

Outputs:

 Regarding outputs of research that are provided directly to policy makers, researchers at the University of Nevada-Reno developed procedures to derive state sole proprietorship employment and income by economic sector from US Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Also employing dynamic shift-share procedures to Nevada sole proprietorship data to determine if there were structural changes to sole proprietorships during and after the great recession. 

 Similarly, Missouri assembled a data set of the budgets of the 88 most rural counties in the state from 1996 to 2013 and is updating it to 2017 in an interactive spreadsheet.  In Missouri counties budgets include the past year, the current year and the future year for which the budget is being developed.  This three-year focus leads to short-term thinking rather than a consideration of long term trends.  The spreadsheet provides the ability to see long term trends and to benchmark against other counties.  It is posted on the web for download and use. Several extension bulletins are planned:  fiscal ratios for counties that focus on liquidity, taxes and expenditures per capita and per $100 of income.  University of Nebraska-Omaha (not a member), Wisconsin and Missouri are applying for a grant to work on data visualization for local governments.

 With funding from the North Central Regional Rural Development Center, Kansas State University, Iowa State University and the University of Missouri surveyed the executive directors of the state associations of counties, using both an on-line and a phone survey.  The survey focused on the fiscal condition of counties, the causes, what counties are doing and state actions that affected the fiscal conditions positively or negatively.   Several of the questions focused specifically on the fiscal conditions of rural counties.  A report was filed and an NCRRDC webinar was given.  The survey found that faster economic recovery resulted in faster recovery for local governments, but even then they continue to face challenges.  A major finding is that the recession resulted in a structural change in the fiscal relations between state and local governments.  Many revenue-sharing programs were eliminated or reduced and state now employ a more targeted and limited approach to fiscal assistance to counties.  Tax and expenditure limitations imposed by the states in the past have also exacerbated fiscal stress. 

 Colorado State University published the following for direct use by policy makers:

 Colorado Blueprint Regional Opportunity Reports (for each of 11 Colorado regions).  2017.  Posted at: http://foodsystems.colostate.edu/research/colorado-blueprint/

 Thilmany, D., A. Bauman, D. Shideler and P. Watson. 2018. Conducting an Economics Impact Study of a Local or Regional Food Project.  Local Food Economics fact sheet.  Funded by USDA NIFA and AMS.  Posted at: https://localfoodeconomics.com/benchmarks/.

 Thilmany, D., B. Jablonski, D. Shideler and J. O’Hara. 2018. Impact of Local Food Production on Food and Beverage Retail Sales.  Local Food Economics fact sheet.  Funded by USDA NIFA.  Posted at: https://localfoodeconomics.com/benchmarks/.

 Thilmany, D., B. Jablonski, A. Bauman, D. Shideler and B. Angelo. 2018. How to Write a Good Case Study on a Food Value Chain.  Local Food Economics fact sheet.  Funded by USDA NIFA.  Posted at: https://localfoodeconomics.com/benchmarks/.

Bauman, A and D. Thilmany. 2017. Exploring Localized Economic Dynamics: Methods Driven Case Studies of Transformation and Growth in Agricultural and Food Markets.  Economic Development Quarterly. 31(3): 244-254. August. DOI: 10.1177/0891242417709530

Borden, B. and T.R. Harris. “Economic and Fiscal New Lithium Mine and Lithium Processing Operation in Humboldt County”, Nevada. University Center Technical Report UCED 2017/18-08 November 2017.

Colorado Department of Agriculture. Public Attitudes about Agriculture in Colorado. 2017. (with Chad Chriestenson, Michael Martin, Martha Sullins and Becca Jablonski). 79 pages.

Colpaart, A. and D. Thilmany. Identifying Key Drivers for Food Business Managers to Engage in the Access Economy. Selected paper for the 2017 WAEA Annual Meetings. Lake Tahoe CA. July.

Conroy, T., Deller, S.C. and Tsvethova, A. 2017. “Interstate Relocation of Manufacturers and Business Climate.” Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies.  29(1):18-45.

Das, Biswa, John Leatherman, Judith I. Stallmann, Craig Maher, Mark Skidmore and Bonnie Bressers. Fiscal Stress after the Great Recession: A Study of Rural Counties in the U.S.  Mid-Continent Regional Science Association/IMPLAN Conference.  Kansas City.  June 6-8, 2018

Das, B., J. Leatherman, J.I. Stallmann, C. Maher, M. Skidmore and B. Bressers.  “Fiscal Stress after the Great Recession:  A Study of Rural Counties in the US.”  North Central Regional Rural Development Center.  Grant Report.  August, 2017.  

Deller, Steven C. and Conroy, Tessa. 2017. “Business Survival Rates Across the Urban-Rural

Divide.” Community Development. 24(1):67-85.

Deller, Steven C., Canto, Amber and Brown, Laura. 2017. “Food Access, Local Foods and

Community Health.” Community Development. 48(5):616-638.

Deller, Steven C., Conroy, Tessa and Watson, Philip. (2017). “Women Business Owners: A Source of Stability During the Great Recession?” Applied Economics. 49(56):5686-5697.

Deller, S.C. and Conroy, T. 2017. “Innovation and Economic Performance: R&D within Wisconsin.” Patterns of Economic Growth and Development Study Series No.5. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin – Madison/Extension.

Deller, S.C. and Conroy, T. 2017. “Innovation and Economic Performance: Policy Options for Wisconsin.” Patterns of Economic Growth and Development Policy Brief No.5. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin – Madison/Extension.

Deller, Steven C., Lamie, David and Stickel, Maureen. 2017. Local Foods Systems and Community Economic Development.” Community Development. 48(5):657-680.

Gallardo, R., Whitacre, B., and Grant, A.  “Broadband’s Impact:  A Brief Literature Review.”  Purdue University Center for Regional Development Publication 001.  December 2017.  18 pp. 

Han, Kwideok and Brian Whitacre. “Estimating Spatial Heterogeneity in Hay Yield Responses to Weather Variations in Oklahoma.”  Selected paper presented at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Jacksonville, FL.  Feb 4-6, 2018. 

Han, K. and B. Whitacre. “Does School Size Matter for Student Academic Achievement? A Two-stage Spatial Quantile Regression Approach.”  Selected paper presented at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Jacksonville, FL.  Feb 4-6, 2018. 

Harris, Thomas R. “Incorporating Risk in Analysis of Tax Policies for Solar Power Investments”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 7, (2017): 112-118.

Harris, T.R. and J.F. Packham. “The Economic Impact of Northeastern Nevada Regional Hospital on the Elko County Economy”. University Center Technical Report, UCED 2017/18-04, September 2017.

Harris, Thomas R. Analysis of Commuting Patterns and Residential Adjustment for Western Nevada Development District. University Center Technical Report 2017-18-09, December 2017.

Harris, Thomas R.” Economic Impact Analysis Report: Fallon Range Training Complex Expansion”. University Center Technical Report 2017/18-16, March 2018.

Hill, R. D. Thilmany, M. Sullins, A. Van Sandt, S. Hardesty and C. Snyder. Agritourism in the West: Outreach approaches and strategies that work for producers and communities exploring new and expanded efforts.  Organized symposium for the 2017 WAEA Annual Meetings.  Lake Tahoe, CA. July.

Jablonski, B. and D. Thilmany. Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Innovative Agricultural Marketing and Infrastructure Investments: A USDA AMS Toolkit. Selected paper for the 2017 WAEA Annual Meetings. Lake Tahoe CA. July.

Kandilov, I. and M. Renkow. 2018. “The Impacts of the USDA Broadband Loan and Grant Programs: Moving Towards Estimating a Rate of Return.” Paper presented at the Farm Foundation/Economic Research Service Workshop on The Economic Returns to Rural Infrastructure Investment, National Press Club, Washington, DC, April 10-11, 2018.

Lee, Kangil and Brian Whitacre.  “The Impact of Unconventional Drilling on House Prices in Central Oklahoma.”  Selected paper presented at the Southern Regional Science Association Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.  Mar 15-17, 2018.   

Lee, Kangil and Brian Whitacre.  “Regional Employment Impacts from Recent Energy Development Activities in Arkansas, Kansas, and Oklahoma.”  Selected paper presented at the Southern Regional Science Association Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.  Mar 15-17, 2018.   

Lee, H. and Whitacre, B.  2017.  “Estimating Willingness to Pay for Broadband Attributes among Low-Income Consumers:  Results from Two FCC Lifeline Pilot Projects.”  Telecommunications Policy 41(9): 769-780. 

Lim, S.H. 2018. Does Shale Energy Development Mean More Crime? The Case of The Bakken Oil Boom. Growth and Change. Forthcoming. DOI:10.1111/grow.12242.

Lin, Z, T. Lin, SH Lim, MH Hove and W.M. Schuh. 2017. Impacts of Bakken Shale Oil Development on Regional Water Uses and Supply. Journal of the American Water Resources Association. Forthcoming. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12605.

Lin, Z., SH Lim, T. Lin, M. Borders.  “A Multi-Agent System of Water Allocation and Management in the Bakken Region” Modelling for Sustainable Food-Energy-Water Systems. Proceedings of the 9th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. June 24-28, 2019, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Lin, T., Z. Lin, and S.H. Lim.  “An Agent-based Model for Groundwater Allocation and Management at the Bakken Shale in Western North Dakota.”  Presentation at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, December 11-15, 2017.

Lipetzky, T., M. Sullins and D. Thilmany. “Coloradans’ Perceptions About Agriculture: 2016 Survey Results & Implications,” Governor’s Forum on Colorado Agriculture, Denver, CO.  February 2017.

Maher, Craig S., Steven C. Deller, Sungho Park and Judith I. Stallmann.  “The Effects of Tax and Expenditure Limits on State Fiscal Reserves.”   Public Policy and Administration. 32(2):130-151.  2017.  http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0952076716660607

Martin, M., C. Chriestenson, D. Thilmany, B. Jablonski, and M. Sullins. FSR 17-02. Perception of Trust in Sources of Information on Agriculture and Food Issues. March 2017. 9 pp.

McLaughlin, M.E. and J.M. Halstead.  2018. “The Ubiquitous Plastic Bag—and What to Do?”  In Writing Arguments: A Rhetoric with Readings. 11^th edition.  J.D. Ramage, J.C. Bean and J. Johnson. Boston, MA:  Pearson Education

McLeod, A., L.A. Harris, and J.M. Halstead.  “Factors Affecting Restaurant Purchase of Locally Grown Foods.” Presented at 2018 Southern Regional Science Association Annual Meetings. March 15-17.  Philadelphia, PA.

Miller, Steven, Steven Deller and Judith I. Stallmann.  2018. “Rural Exposure to Pension Reductions.”  Choices.  Quarter 1.  http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/submitted-articles/rural-exposure-to-pension-reductions

Miller, S., S. Deller and J.I. Stallmann.  “Impacts of Reductions in Pension Payments on County Growth.”  Southern Regional Science Association. Philadelphia.  March 15-17, 2018.

Miller, Steven, Steven Deller and Judith I. Stallmann.  “Potential Impacts of Pension Reductions.”  North Central Regional Rural Development Center Webinar.  January 23, 2018. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_lxvVIhYKQ&feature=youtu.be

Miller, Steve, Steve Deller and Judith I. Stallmann.  “Potential Rural Impacts of Pension Reductions.”  Policy Brief. North Central Regional Rural Development Center.  2017. http://ncrcrd.msu.edu/uploads/files/Pension_Report_17.pdf

Miller, S., Deller, S.C. and J. Stallman. 2017. “Potential Rural Impacts of Pension Reductions.” Policy Brief, North Central Center for Rural Development, Michigan State University.

Reese, J., M. Becker, J. Lightfoot, S. Wall, and B. Whitacre.  “Rural Broadband Panel Session.”  Oklahoma Rural Development Conference & Workshop. Oklahoma City, OK. December 5, 2017. 

Shi, W., J.M. Halstead, and J-C Huang.  “The Status Quo Effect in Local Agriculture Purchase Decisions.”  Presented at 2017 Southern Economic Association Annual Meetings. November 9-11.  Tampa, FL. 

Stallmann, Judith, Maher, Craig, Deller, Steven C. and Park, Sungho. 2017. “Research on the Effects of Limitations on Taxes and Expenditures.” Journal of Public and Nonprofit Affairs. 3 (2): 197-222.            (NOTE: Winner of the Best Paper Award for 2017.)

Thilmany McFadden, D., S. Low and M. Castillo. Rural Development Implications of Foodie Culture:  What factors drive food and beverage manufacturing firm dynamics?  Organized session for the 2017 North American Regional Science Association meetings.  November 2018.

Thilmany, D., C. Chriestenson, M. Martin, M. Sullins, and B. Jablonski. FSR 17-01. An Overview of Coloradans’ Perceptions of Agriculture. February 2017. 9 pp. http://webdoc.agsci.colostate.edu/DARE/FSR/FSR17-01.pdf

Thilmany, D. R. Hill, M. Haefele, A. van Sandt, C. Thomas, M. Sullins and S. Low. An Overview of Agricultural and Rural Outdoor Recreation Tourism in the United States: A Framework for Understanding Economic and Employment Dynamics. Chapter for Agricultural Policies and Rural Jobs. Co-Editors: S. Davidova, K. Thomson and A. Mishra. Fall 2018 expected publication.

Van Sandt, A., S. Low and D. Thilmany.  2018. A Spatial Analysis of Agritourism in the US: What’s Driving Clusters of Enterprises? Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. Published online February 2018. https://doi.org/10.1017/age.2017.36.

Van Sandt, A., D. Thilmany and R. Hill. “Targeting Agritourism to Leverage the Unique Natural Resources Base and Heritage of the Rural West.  Chapter accepted for Agritourism, Enotourism, Aletourism: Tourism Niches and Local Entrepreneurship in Peripheral Areas. Expected publication. 2019.

Van Sandt, A., M. Costanigro and D. Thilmany. Proximities to Attractions and Visitor Reviews in Determining Traveler Behavior: A Choice Experiment on Agritourism.  Selected Paper for the 2017 AAEA Annual Meetings. Chicago IL. July.

Watson, Philip and Deller, Steven C. 2017. “Economic Diversity, Unemployment and the Great

Recession.”  Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 64(May):1-11.

Werner, S., S. Lemos, J.M. Halstead, and J-C Huang.  “Consumers’ Willingness to Pay for Locally Grown Produce in Northern New England.”  Presented at 2017 NAREA Annual Meeting. June 11-14.  Washington, DC.

Werner, S.L., S. Lemos, J.M. Halstead, and J-C Huang.  “The Local-organic Premium for Agricultural Produce:  A Northern New England Case Study.”  Presented at the 56th Annual Meetings of the Southern Regional Science Association.  March 30–April 1, 2017. Memphis, TN.

Werner, S.L. and J.M. Halstead.  “The value of the local label in farmers’ market.”  Presented at the New Hampshire Farm and Forest Exposition.  February 17, 2017.  Manchester, NH. 

Werner, S.L., N.A. Haddad, and J.M. Halstead.  2017.  Why Do (or Don’t) New Englanders Buy Local Produce?  University of New Hampshire Cooperative Extension.  Durham, NH. 

Whitacre, B.  2017.  “Fixed Broadband or Mobile:  What Makes Us More Civically Engaged?”  Telematics and Informatics 34(5): 755-766.

Whitacre, Brian, Devon Meadowcroft, and Roberto Gallardo.  “Determinants of Rural Business Innovation.”  Selected paper presented at the North American Regional Science Association Conference, Vancouver, CAN. November 9-11, 2017.

Whitacre,. Brian “Loaning Out the Internet: 2 Pilot Projects in Rural Oklahoma.”  Presentation for Oklahoma State University Center for Family Resiliency (CFR) Research Seminar.  Tulsa, OK.  April 20, 2018. 

Wright, C., J.M. Halstead, and J-C Huang.  2018. “Estimating Treatment Effects of Unit-based Pricing of Household Solid Waste Disposal."  Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.  In press.