• Basic Information
• Additional Info

Basic Information

• Project No. and Title: W3001 : The Great Recession, Its Aftermath, and Patterns of Rural and Small Town Demographic Change
• Period Covered: 10/01/2016 to 09/30/2017
• Date of Report: 11/01/2017
• Annual Meeting Dates: 09/14/2017 to 09/16/2017

Participants

see Minutes for list of participants

Accomplishments

Impacts

1. Objective 1. Document the realignment of U.S. nonmetro population growth and decline during the periods before, during, and after the Great Recession of 2006-2009, examine the dynamics of these changes (births, deaths, internal and international migration), and investigate their social and economic determinants, paying close attention to regional and local variation. The project investigated the impact of the Great Recession on migration patterns in rural America. State and local governments, school districts, business owners, economic and regional planners, community organizations, and media are among those that are affected and will benefit from the evidence based information produced by this project. Project members developed detailed estimates of net migration for different age groups ; examined migration patterns affecting rural communities before, during, and after the Great Recession; estimated the social and economic consequences of migration into rural communities; provided easily accessible and understandable data, maps, and analyses of migration patterns relevant to local, state, and regional issues and their respective stakeholders. They used detailed data (i.e., actual birth and death counts) to generate more accurate small area estimates of migration for specific age-race-sex groups; used data that followed individuals and places over time to elucidate how migration dynamics change over decades; and developed access points to engage audiences and encourage users to combine local knowledge with data to enhance the utility of demographic analysis in general and specifically migration estimates. The major outputs included peer-reviewed journal articles and policy briefs; an innovative publicly accessible interactive website that has, to-date, over 300,000 unique users including public and “non-expert” users; a webinar delivered through the Population Reference Bureau in Washington DC; presentations to local, state, and national audiences including legislators, planners, educational administrators, and Extension specialists and county-based educators across programming areas; and frequent interactions with local, regional, and national media . Among the project’s cutting-edge data applications, participants launched an NSF-funded Twitter Initiative, collecting, and managing geo-tagged Twitter data as well as the capacity to analyze the data easily and efficiently. As part of this endeavor, they predict Twitter user demographics as a first step in Big Data for population research by developing scalable methods and applying them to real-time, large-scale Twitter data. Knowing the demographics of users is the first step for almost all population research using Twitter data. Academic researchers are also beginning to access data through twitter, hence, this project will also strengthen academic research in many social science disciplines that use demographic data. The project raised awareness and increased knowledge about community change through gains or losses of migrants of specific ages and race groups, and the potential implications these changes have for the provision of services and infrastructure. Examples include school districts confronting shrinking or growing child populations and subsequent class sizes; implications of changes in the working age population and subsequent impacts on labor supply and economic community vitality; prevalence and implications of “deaths of despair” in certain kinds of rural communities, provision of health services for aging populations in areas with extremely old populations; and the implications for community cohesion of changing local area racial composition . For example, in Iron County, Wisconsin, a small community losing young people at an alarming rate, age-specific migration estimates were the impetus of local planners to develop strategies to retain and attract young adults by engaging them in planning the community’s future. The migration estimates were a catalyst for additional funding to support further research on community responses to the potential loss of young adult residents.
2. Objective 2. Describe shifts in rural unemployment and investigate linkages between job loss and population dynamics, notably the impact of rising unemployment on shifts in migration flows between nonmetro and metro areas and changes in levels of immigration to rural destinations. One of the most significant effects of the Great Recession was job loss and, consequently, rising unemployment and poverty rates. Rural areas were not disproportionately affected during the recession, but they have recovered much more slowly. During the post-recession, poverty rates have been higher in rural vs. urban areas, and many rural areas have not recovered. These trends raise questions about the well-being of rural residents and the long term economic viability of rural economies and communities. Complicating this issue is that there are methodological shortcomings with how to measure poverty and unemployment in the U.S. These are issues of immense concern for national and state policymakers who must project demand for federal and state safety net resources, and make decisions about budget appropriations, minimum wage changes, and modifications to programs like the Earned Income Tax Credit. These issues are also of concern to local government leaders and welfare officials who are aiming to better understand what it may take to alleviate poverty, improve household income, reduce unemployment, attract skilled labor industries, and promote overall socioeconomic well-being in their communities. Researchers analyzed individual-, county-, and state-level data from multiple government sources (Current Population Survey, American Community Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics) to examine these issues. Project members also participated in briefings, webinars, conference presentations, and engaged with the media. In one study, researchers examined 126 explicit measures of working poverty and developed a working poverty index. In so doing, they demonstrated how changes in the measurement of who is considered to be “working poor” affects our estimates of rates of worker poverty. This program of research advanced knowledge on the economic status of rural America, including new estimates of working poverty rates. The findings from this research point to a richer and sometimes surprising portrait of poverty and employment in post-recession rural America, including significant regional variation in levels of social and economic well-being . A specific example of new knowledge that was generated from this research is that the working poor has replaced the welfare poor as a focal point for policy intervention, thereby emphasizing the need to shift attention from unemployment to underemployment. This research also demonstrated for the first time that reductions in rural/urban disparities in poverty are driven by rising rural unemployment rates thereby pointing to the need for policies that invest in education and attract skilled industries and workers to rural areas. Another example of research contributing to this objective was the publication of a comprehensive monograph titled, “Rural Aging in 21st Century America.” This book highlighted research by project members and examined the determinants rural aging and consequences of aging for rural people, economies, institutions and community structure. The editors met with interested legislators in a Congressional Briefing held on Capitol Hill in Washington DC. The outputs (academic journal articles, conference presentations, research and policy briefs, webinars, government briefings, newspaper op-eds, and media interviews) stemming from this body of research reached a wide array of stakeholders, including the public, academics from multiple disciplines, and policymakers. As one example, a public research brief describing the rural-urban divide on issues related to poverty, unemployment, and disability was tweeted 517 times and posted to Facebook over 2000 times (need to get how many times this article was clicked from The Conversation). By informing both the public and policymakers about working poverty in rural areas, this research has the potential for changing official measurements of poverty and underemployment, and thereby changing the way safety net resources are distributed. Through these articles, briefs, presentations, and webinars, this research has the potential to contribute to and inform much-needed discussions among lawmakers and their staff about pending legislation surrounding poverty, job growth, taxation, and social safety net programs. The results have the potential to influence the approaches taken by state welfare administrators in their outreach programs and rule-making for program participants.
3. Objective 3 Examine dynamics in rural housing markets in light of shifting rural population composition and new economic realities, in particular how increased socioeconomic diversity in rural areas (age, race, household structure, class) alters the demand for different forms of rural housing, how poverty concentration in some areas and wealth in others creates housing stress, and how communities were differentially impacted by the housing-led recession Researchers also addressed how common subprime lending was in rural America and what types of places and people were most susceptible to and impacted by subprime loans. The constituents that care about this issue include rural borrowers, rural lenders, rural communities, and anyone concerned about wealth creation/retention in rural regions. With leveraged funding from USDA- ERS and HUD, researchers analyzed loan level data to identify subprime loans by county as well as characteristics of borrowers receiving subprime loans. Geographically specific loan level data are relatively new and underutilized. Researchers accessed loan level records through the unique Home Mortgage Disclosure Act – Loan Applicant Record database (HMDA LAR). The major results were that subprime lenders targeted the most vulnerable rural places: remote places with high minority populations persistent population loss, low median housing values, and lower levels of education. These results were published in Housing and Society, and presented at the Annual Meetings of the Associations of American Geographers, and research seminars at Economic Research Service and HUD. Media representations of the subprime lending crisis portrayed the problem as an urban phenomenon. This work brought to light the extent to which subprime lending was proportionally more common in rural regions having a greater impact or rural homeowners and rural communities. The results of this project informed policy makers of the extent of subprime lending in rural regions. Objective 3 also focused on the shifting population composition and the increasing socioeconomic diversity in micropolitan areas, which present both challenges and opportunities for communities. This issue is an interest for stakeholders and decision-makers alike, including a variety of potentially marginalized groups, such as disabled residents, older adults, LGBTQ populations, etc. The importance of this issue lies in the fact that tolerance and diversity are associated with economic and rural development, and economic prosperity. More diverse populations include a richer store of social capital and social resources. Given the fact that tolerance leads to economic prosperity, we expect that as micropolitan areas become more diverse they will become more economically prosperous. Thus, policy makers need to be sensitive to the needs of such groups. The project measured the prevalence of same sex partnering in micro areas; estimated the return on education among Hispanics; estimated the rates of disability across types of disability, nationally, regionally and by rural and urban populations; and estimated availability of services in communities with extremely old populations. An example for the knowledge created in this objective, the explanations for lower return on education for Hispanics could increase the potential for policies that improve educational attainment. Eliminating the gap in returns to education would increase the human capital and development prospects of rural America. This is especially important as Hispanic workers comprise an increasing proportion of the rural workforce, in fact a majority in some areas. Groups impacted included vulnerable populations, rural leaders, and service providers, such as health care professionals who hire Hispanics and who care for the elderly.
4. The University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies (CPS) was deeply engaged in W3001. The CPS was able to learn and network with others to advance efforts to further develop mixed-methods research approaches to inform the work of nonprofit community building organizations trying to improve quality of in Mississippi in the aftermath of the Great Recession, especially the Delta region of the state. Working through service-learning courses, internships, and externally funded grants and contracts, CPS faculty, staff, and students developed, implemented, and evaluated efforts to utilize demographic, socioeconomic, and health data in development efforts in the Delta and elsewhere in the rural south. Tools arising from this body of work, in collaboration with nonprofit partners, included the Design with Data workshop series, Mississippi Health and Hunger Atlas, and a Resilience Index.
5. W3001 researchers collaborated on multi-disciplinary studies examining the impact of the Great Recession on rural population growth and related socioeconomic changes. Findings show that rural population is shrinking for the first time on record, due to long-term outmigration of young adults, fewer births and increased mortality among working-age adults, and an aging population. The number of nonmetro counties losing population reached an historic high of 1,351 during 2010-16. New areas of population loss emerged throughout the eastern United States, especially in manufacturing-dependent regions. Through a close collaboration with USDA’s Economic Research Service, these research findings have shaped the content of policy briefings and publications aimed at a federal policy audience, such as Rural America at a Glance. Findings were included in the initial 2017 report of the President’s Agricultural and Rural Prosperity Task Force, headed by USDA Secretary Perdue. In this way, W3001 research has increased the likelihood that federal rural development programs are adapted to current and projected population trends.
6. The national Academy of Sciences turned to W-3001 to organize a national workshop on the measurement of rural. This is critically important rural status is an eligibility criterion for dozens of national and state programs. A W-3001 member was selected as chair of the organizing committee and a two day workshop was held at NAS headquarters in November of 2015. 50 social scientists from academia, government, and business organizations participated in the workshop. The final report made recommendations for strengthening the nations system of statistical geography which will deepen our understanding of rural transformations and enhance the accuracy of targeting assistance to disadvantaged rural communities and households.
7. The Population Trends in Post-Recession Rural America is a publication series of the W3001 Research Project. The series provides information about current trends confronting rural people and their communities in the United States. Content addressed in the briefs are based on cutting-edge research conducted by the W3001 members, and are translated to reach a broad, non-expert audience with social, political, and economic interests in rural America’s populations and communities. The briefs are available in an interactive format and can be downloaded as PDFs to maximize access and use among stakeholders. Announcements of new briefs in the series are distributed through W3001 membership networks and include, for example, Cooperative Extension, state and local governments, school districts and administrators, economic and regional planners, community organizations, and media. Reflecting the W3001’s collaborative relationships across multiple institutions, the series is funded by the Applied Population Laboratory at the UW-Madison, Community and Regional Development Institute at Cornell University, and the Center for Population Studies at the University of Mississippi. Since its inception in May of 2016, more than 1,000 unique users from each of the 50 states have visited the website, with the top 5 number of sessions originating in Wisconsin, California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York. The brief series has raised awareness among stakeholders on how the Great Recession changed migration patterns, differential rates of health insurance coverage among communities with large Hispanic populations, differential migration trends in communities across rural America, and access to services for aging rural Americans. Impacts of this effort are on-going.
8. Finally, it is important to note that the scholarship produced by members of the group have long term impact implications. One example is the International Handbook of Rural Demography, published in 2012, where the editors and many contributors were from then W2001 project. Springer Publishers measures “popularity” via a “usage” metric that counts the number of times a chapter from a Handbook is accessed on-line and downloaded. The International Handbook of Rural Demography has received 30,354 downloads over the years, attesting to the global impact made by researchers in this project.

Publications