Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

Outputs/Activities: Brent Sohngen: A number of researchers have suggested that benefit cost analysis does not apply when there are concerns about irreversibility, such as species extinction. This research shows how benefit-cost analysis can be undertaken when thresholds or irreversibilities exist. Paul Jakus: Arsenic contamination exceeds EPA standards in some rural regions. This study explained the factors that influence households' perceived risk of arsenic contamination of drinking water and the decision to treat drinking water to remove the contaminant. Primary data were collected in Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin during Fall 2006 and Spring 2007. Econometric modeling shows that perceived risks of arsenic contamination of drinking water increase with increases in concentration levels. Scientists have documented that smoking, when combined with arsenic consumption, causes the objective risk to increase; the econometric modeling of perceived risk indicates that people understand the importance of smoking in evaluating the risk arsenic ingestion. A Heckman selection model was used to estimate the effect of perceived risk on the decision to buy bottled water. The more overt characteristics of tap water quality (taste, smell, clarity) dominate the role of perceived risk in the decision to buy any bottled water, but perceived risk is a statistically significant determinant of the amount of money to spend on bottled water. W. Douglass Shaw: Presented instream flow work at "The Instream Flow Workshop" Dept. of Ecology, Washington State. Gathering of some 50 professionals in wildlife and water management from Alaska, Oregon, and Washington State, June 2008. Presented instream flow work at the Brown Bag Invited Speaker Series, Environmental Defense Fund, Boulder, Colorado, July 2008. A collection of EDF employees interested in economic approaches to the instream flow allocation problem. Presented various papers at 12 other universities (for invited seminars), conferences, or workshops. Klaus Moeltner: The simulated models produced the following results and insights: By switching from an aggregate to an individual-level estimation framework, we are also implicitly adopting the more complex and more highly nonlinear properties of the underlying theoretical model structure. This hampers the ability of a linear MRM to produce meaningful BT (beneft transfer) estimates, at least for our simulated application. Conceptually, the structural ILMRM would utilize the original data to directly generate welfare predictions for any desired BT context consistent with a common utility-theoretic framework. In contrast, the reduced-form ILMRM proceeds in two steps: First, raw data are used to generate welfare estimates for each individual. Second, these estimates are then regressed against a set of explanatory variables (as needed for the BT function) in a standard linear meta-regression framework. In theory, the structural ILMRM should be more efficient than the reduced-form ILMRM as it avoids the second estimation step. However, its feasibility hinges crucially on the homogeneity of outcome variables employed in the original studies. Randall Rosenberger : A discrete duration model was developed to evaluate and measure the effect of land use policy changes on economic development. The model was fit with data for wilderness designations in the Appalachian Region of the U.S. Results show a statistically significant positive, but not practical, effect of wilderness designation on local economic development in the eastern U.S. A Bayesian method using model search and model averaging was developed to define the optimal scope of metadata for meta-regression analysis. The Bayesian-derived, scope-augmented metadata are shown to produce more efficient benefit transfer estimates than conventionally defined scope and smaller metadata sets. Use of this model should increase the efficiency of benefit transfers. A survey of recreational visitors to Mt. Jefferson Wilderness area in Oregon was conducted. The survey evaluated the effects of a past wildfire on visitor use patterns, recreational access, and satisfaction levels. Wilderness visitation to the Mt. Jefferson Wilderness area did not change dramatically following the B&B Fires of 2003. Displacement of visitors was minimal. However, changes in policy and management have a greater impact on visitation than natural disasters based on historical visitation records. John Loomis: Research was performed and accepted for publication on pricing options for USDA Forest Service to reduce congestion at 14,000 foot peaks. This information is being used by the USDA Forest Service and the Colorado 14er Initiative. It was also the basis for a successful grant to USDA NRI. Our recreation valuation results were used in a publication for California Department of Boating and Waterways. Our estimates of recreation and scientific economic values were used by the Wilderness Society in their publication this year. These examples suggest significant cost savings are being realized by agencies and non-governmental organizations being able to apply our new and existing studies to emerging natural resource policy issues without having to conduct their own expensive studies and without having to delay management decisions while new economic studies are conducted. In addition to this US impact, the research undertaken has been requested in several countries around the world including The Netherlands, Italy, Jamaica and Thailand. Diane Hite: Based on analysis of survey data from anglers, we found that the baseline value of fishing in Alabama averages about $250 per person. Responses to other questions in the data, such as the types of site characteristics that could enhance individual anglers' experiences will be used to further identify ways in which fishing tourism can be enhanced in the Black Belt. We also found a baseline impact of $135.5m in total value added to the state from recreational fishing, which could potentially be increased to $142.2m. We also estimate a Black Belt baseline value of $38.3m, which could potentially increase to $43.4m with improvements to fishing sites in the region. Policy makers in state tourism will be able to use the information from this project to help guide operators of both public and private fishing venues on ways to increase individual and regional profitability. With respect to climate and agricultural profitability, we found at the watershed level (Kelley Creek in SE AL) that cotton is adversely affected by increasing temperatures, while other crops may perform better than normal; we additionally found that in this watershed, conversion of subwatersheds from forest to agricultural uses would have a negative impact on both water quality and per hectare profitability. Our findings for the Black Belt region suggest ENSO impacts on agricultural profitability can be mitigated somewhat with increased forecasting precision of climate phases. In addition, we are able to use the model to identify which parts of the Black Belt are more adversely impacted than others by ENSO phases; for example, Hale County is much better off in terms of profitability during El Nino, while Choctaw, Macon and Russell counties are much worse off. These findings will play an important role in the strategies employed by agricultural producers to cope with climate change. John Braden: One important finding is that language affinity does have significant effects on welfare estimates derived from survey responses. The results suggest that mail surveys addressing environmental issues that may affect a linguistically diverse population should be designed at the outset with multiple languages in mind. A second finding is that aquatic sites contaminated with hazardous materials are consistently associated with diminished values of nearby properties. Survey research results reveal a positive willingness to pay for cleanup of these sites, but the WTP estimates show much less influence of proximity to the site and may capture expression of "warm-glow" preferences. Kathleen Bell: The research on household decision making, arsenic contamination of drinking water, and invasive forest pests is contributing to a change of knowledge by providing important information to public agencies and private businesses. The results of this research will help promote changes in action by supporting the development of improved risk communication and prevention programs. Such changes can support more cost-effective strategies to maintain human and forest health. The national wildlife refuge study provides a change in knowledge related to the valuation of open space lands by providing evidence that residents value proximity to these lands and highlighting the sensitivity of results to the measurement and classification of open space lands. Research on voting behavior provides a change in knowledge by examining public preferences for land protection over time and space. These advances in knowledge can help citizens, policy-makers, and private businesses make informed decisions about land use and land management. Don McLeod: The projects I have been involved with relate to open space preservation/conservation issues across a variety of natural resource considerations, particularly land and water resources. Exurban sprawl and landscape fragmentation continue to be critical issues with respect to resource management and local governance. The research efforts constitute work in progress or mid project outcomes related to funding. The audiences for the outcomes consist of water policy makers, landowners, land use planners, land trusts, federal and state agency personnel, other researchers, elected official and concerned citizens. Two funded projects (NRI and WWDC) provide additional resources to pursue analysis of emerging conservation easement markets and environmental impacts of public projects. The former is becoming an important public/private tool in addition to standard land use controls. The latter is increasingly relevant due to the infrastructure demands of both exurban residential and energy development. The work is intended to provide decision makers with evidence of land use impacts as well as assist in developing mechanisms to mitigate unwanted or unintended consequences of public policy/projects. WWDC project is chiefly designed to determine the relationship between exurban sprawl and regional water project siting in Wyoming. It is policy relevant as it provides measure, records and data to consider or think about as per regional water project siting choices. I am working with colleagues in the Ruckelshaus Institute of the Environment and Natural Resources as well as the Wyoming Geographic Information Sciences Center to construct a decision support framework for exploiting synergies between water resource planning and land use planning.