Duration: 10/01/2026 to 09/30/2031

Administrative Advisor(s):

NIFA Reps:

Non-Technical Summary

To support the increasing global population, agriculture needs to produce more with fewer resources while facing harsher weather, new pests and diseases, shifting markets, and higher expectations for sustainability and safety. Meanwhile, growth in farm productivity appears to be slowing, and the way research is funded and performed is shifting toward more private actors. These trends affect food prices, farm incomes, environmental quality, and the resilience of rural communities. Innovation is widely viewed as a critical means to meet these challenges. The project’s goal is to provide clear, reliable evidence that guides efficient agricultural research, innovation, and technology adoption. We will: improve productivity measurement and identify determinants of productivity; document changes in public and private R&D funding and their consequences; explain how universities, startups, and established firms innovate and transfer technology; study how consumer demand, public perceptions, and regulations shape adoption; analyze digitization and AI; and assess the benefits and risks of emerging technologies such as precision agriculture, smart irrigation, and new biotechnologies. Policymakers, research administrators, extension leaders, farmers and ranchers, agribusinesses, and consumer and environmental groups will gain accessible datasets, practical metrics, and timely analyses that clarify what works, for whom, and at what cost. We will produce public datasets; publish peer-reviewed and outreach articles; brief agencies and legislatures; and host workshops and conferences. By linking causes (funding, regulation, technology) to effects (productivity, prices, and adoption), our evidence will help direct research funding, design programs, promote promising innovations, and turne research into results for producers, consumers, and the environment.

Statement of Issues and Justification

The need as indicated by stakeholders

This project serves a diverse range of stakeholders, including policymakers engaged in the design and implementation of public policy related to agricultural research and development (R&D) and the adoption and utilization of new agricultural technologies, as well as others who are affected by new agricultural technologies—from farmers and others engaged in the value chains of U.S. agriculture through to American consumers and those who advocate for environmental quality and conservation. Ultimately, every American is a stakeholder in this project.

Agricultural R&D and innovation are essential features of the economy. They are central to maintaining access to food at reasonable costs in the face of increasing demand, by increasing yields and thus the productivity of our limited land and water resources. R&D and innovation also increase product quality and the value-added of agriculture. Innovation reduces the risks and increases the resilience of agriculture in the face of plant and animal diseases, wildfires, weather events, pandemics, and trade disruptions.

This project serves its stakeholders by conducting studies of agricultural innovation systems and by developing models and measures of the economic consequences of past and prospective changes in the technologies used on farms, and the role of public policy in facilitating those changes. These studies enable the stakeholders in U.S. agriculture to better understand how agricultural R&D contributes to the development and diffusion of new technologies that will help American farmers adapt to changes in their decision-making environments. Understanding and adapting to new technologies is a cross-cutting issue because of the diversity of factors that farmers and other stakeholders in U.S. agriculture face.

Various initiatives at the state, regional, and national level have emphasized the importance of research, extension, and technology transfer in helping farmers adapt to diverse changes they are facing. In this context, stakeholder groups have called for social science research to address various issues related to the economics of agricultural R&D and innovation. These issues can be divided into four broad, yet closely interrelated, areas related to agricultural R&D, innovation, and technology, each with a number of pressing questions:

1. Understanding how R&D, innovation, and new technologies facilitate adaptive responses to change in markets, policies, and the physical environment:

○  How does agricultural R&D and innovation respond to the ever-changing environment, pest, disease, food safety, and biosecurity challenges characterized by the emergence of adaptive dynamics?

○  How does agricultural R&D and innovation respond to global challenges, such as natural disasters or pandemics? When and how do private incentives arise for innovation to meet these very public challenges? What is and what should be the role of international public institutions (e.g., CGIAR) in addressing these challenges?

○  How does agricultural R&D and innovation respond to evolving public perceptions of different farming technologies and production systems? What is the role of the government in regulating those technologies and production systems relative to evolving public perceptions?

○  How does agricultural R&D and innovation respond to the emergence of new technological opportunities—such as those created by genome editing, precision data collection, or artificial intelligence and machine learning?

○  How does U.S. agricultural R&D respond to increasing competition from China, India, and Brazil and the increasing size and sophistication of their agricultural R&D and production capacities?

○  How does agricultural R&D respond to the introduction of new products that substitute for traditional product categories (such as margarine and vegetable shortening in the early 20th century, or dairy and meat substitutes today)?

 

2. Understanding the research and development (R&D) institutions and processes that contribute to innovations in food and agriculture:

○  Who is doing R&D and innovation for agriculture and why? What are the returns to R&D? Who is financing R&D? How is the structure of R&D changing, and why?

○  What are the roles of intellectual property and regulations in incentivizing, constraining, and otherwise shaping both public and privately funded R&D?

○  How does technology transfer affect the performance of the innovation supply chain, connecting research labs with development (whether in agricultural research stations, start-ups, or corporations), commercialization, marketing, extension, and the demand side of farmers and beyond?

 

3. Understanding the technology adoption and diffusion processes that bring innovations into commercial practice:

○  What determines the adoption and dis-adoption of different technologies? What are potential patterns of spatial and social diffusion?

○  What are the mechanisms by which technologies are introduced to farmers, whether through extension and private channels? And how effective are they?

○  How are consumer preferences, public perceptions, and private food industry standards and practices influencing technology adoption upstream by farmers?

○  To what extent is technological diffusion affected by the growing prevalence of contractual relationships in agriculture such as vertical integration?

○  What are the drivers and barriers of international agricultural technology diffusion?

○  How does adoption of technologies in foreign markets affect U.S. technology providers as well as U.S. farmers?

 

4. Evaluating the impacts of research and innovation along multiple dimensions:

○  How do we characterize and measure productivity changes? How do we account for non-market or public goods & bads in productivity measures? How important are these aspects and other omissions from the widely used productivity measures?

○  How are new information technologies and data systems likely to change agricultural value chains? What is the value and ownership structure of emerging data? What is their effect on integration of agricultural value chains?

○  How much does research contribute to rural development and increase the wellbeing of rural America?

○  Who are the winners and losers when an innovation is introduced? How are those losses absorbed? How might the incidence of losses generate opposition, economically or politically?

○  How do we understand, measure, and value the impact of new technologies on sustainability and resilience of resources on which agriculture depends?

○  What are potential changes in energy production and energy use by agriculture?

These four broad areas of stakeholder demands are intimately interconnected. The diversity of questions across all four areas share many important themes involving production, markets, the environment, health, and security. Crucially, many stakeholders understand the importance of taking a long-term, integrative, dynamic view of these interrelationships.

The first broad area, on adaptive response, emphasizes those interconnections. A unifying factor is the recognition that agricultural research and innovation play a central role in addressing emerging issues by developing and delivering new technologies that adapt the system of agriculture to meet stakeholder needs. Much applied agricultural R&D is maintenance or adaptive research, for which it is crucial to understand the Red Queen effect—the need for a (crop or livestock) species to be perpetually adapting and evolving, because competing organisms (such as pests and pathogens) do not cease evolving. This effect is accentuated and accelerated by environmental changes, including land use, water availability, and biodiversity. Thus, some R&D is needed for the industry just to stay in place. Similarly, R&D initiatives arise in response to temporary or permanent loss of access to input supplies or to important markets—whether due to trade, travel, or immigration disruptions. The development of new technologies that increase flexibility in logistics and trading relationships, re-deploy disrupted commercial links, or substitute inputs, enable the rapid response of value chain structure to mitigate or accommodate the effects of such disruptions on stakeholders. 

NC1034 research pays particular attention to the needs, conditions, or factors that induce innovation, and in turn how the resulting innovations causes or enables agriculture to adapt to meet those stakeholder needs. Such feedback or interdependencies are understood to be facilitated both by markets and by public policies. Yet, it is not necessarily a rapid process. It is recognized by stakeholders that there can be long time lags of many years from when research needs are recognized and research funding begins, to when new technologies are first available to farmers. The process of adoption itself can take considerable time and adopted technologies may continue to be used, having impacts on productivity and the environment, for decades. For this reason, changes in R&D are understood to have very long-cycle effects on productivity and economic wellbeing.

Some stakeholders might not realize they cannot take the future availability of a stream of new technologies as a given. Thus, the second broad set of issues is to understand how socio-economic factors affect the R&D institutions and processes that largely account for the supply of innovations and how evolving factors in society change public support for creating and making those technologies available to producers. NC1034 research serves this stakeholder interest by examining how public and private-sector research systems identify demands for, and engage in, the R&D processes that drive innovation.

The contributions of agricultural research depend not only on the amount of funding, but also on the sources and mechanisms of funding and the organization of the research process. Dramatic changes have been made to the organization and funding of agricultural research that pose challenges and present opportunities. Over the last three decades, the total amount of public funding for agricultural R&D has been shrinking in real terms. The share of state agricultural experiment station (SAES) research funded by state governments has declined, relative to the shares funded by the USDA, other federal agencies and the private sector. This situation has led to the recent development of research partnerships between universities, federal labs, and private industries, particularly in the areas of biotechnology and biofuels R&D. The structure and performance of such collaborations merit serious research investigation to inform public policy debates about public-private research partnerships.

In addition to domestic R&D systems in the United States, NC1034 is also concerned with the organization and efficacy of international research and technology transfer in agriculture. This setting includes the role of traditional public sector sources of research funding and technology transfer such as the World Bank and the CGIAR, as well as private foundations such as the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The NC1034 project also increasingly considers the role of private sector R&D around the world, and how competing private interests may shape incentives to innovate or may directly invest new resources in R&D for agriculture.

The third broad issue that stakeholders need to consider is how economic incentives and public policies facilitate or hinder technology adoption and thus the diffusion of those technologies across the economy. The returns to farmers to adopt a new agricultural innovation can be exceedingly different across a range of farm characteristics, and understanding how environmental, economic, and social characteristics influence uptake is key to interpreting and predicting the diffusion of new innovations. Another critical issue influencing adoption is market acceptance of new technologies, such as seen with the emergence of biotechnologies. Increasingly, farmers are expected and required to take into account societal attitudes toward their production practices, food industry production guidelines and product standards, and effects of voluntary and mandatory labeling requirements. The NC1034 project examines the direct effects of public perceptions and food industry standards toward farm and food technologies on agricultural producers and consumers, as well as the incentives and disincentives such factors create for technology development and dissemination.

The fourth broad issue important to stakeholders is impact. Foremost, this depends upon reliable measurement of the contribution of agricultural innovations to agricultural productivity. Growth of agricultural productivity is necessary to continue to feed the world’s growing population and at the same time conserve increasingly scarce natural resources and adapt to ever more challenging production environments. Productivity is a measure of the amount of agricultural production obtained from a given amount of land, water, and other inputs. It thus directly relates to the amount of resources required to achieve a given amount of production. Productivity growth is thus a fundamental requirement to meet demands for food, fiber, and biofuels without placing undue pressure on land, water, and environmental resources. Key policy questions are: (a) Is productivity growth slowing down and contributing to rising global food prices; (b) what environmental factors are altering rates of productivity growth; and (c) is productivity growth on pace to provide for future global food security? This set of questions relates directly to the environmental impacts of agricultural production. Increasingly producer groups are being asked to document their resource “footprints” to meet consumer and processor demands for more sustainable production practices.

Finally, stakeholders need common data resources to understand these complex processes. Data on research, adoption, and productivity changes were more readily available when the public sector played a larger role. Increasingly agricultural R&D is carried out by the private sector, and data on private R&D activity and outcomes is often proprietary. Thus, considerable research, data collection, and partnership development is needed to measure the intensity of private sector innovation and its impacts. This requires finding, creating, and collecting data and tracking changes in R&D spending, patenting and licensing, and product testing. Tracking public and private innovation activity (combined with an empirical understanding of the links between them) is critical to assessing whether future productivity will be sufficient to meet future demands while adapting to increasing sustainability challenges, whether in the form of new pests, new weather patterns, or new market demands.

 

The importance of the work, and what the consequences are if it is not done.

Virtually all of the analyses of agricultural R&D conducted worldwide are based on methods developed by current or past participants of the NC1034 community (or its predecessor committees). NC1034 participants have conducted pioneering work in

• agricultural productivity measurement;
• estimation of the returns to agricultural research;
• assessment of the incidence of the payoff to agricultural research (the insight being that how and when an innovator captures a benefit from what they created can matter just as much if not more than the size of the benefit they capture);
• the determinants and effects of adoption of new agricultural technologies, particularly of biotechnologies and precision agricultural technologies;
• the implications of changes in intellectual property rights for U.S. agriculture;
• improved design of biotechnology regulations;
• design of processes for research evaluation, priority-setting, and management;
• design and evaluation of research funding mechanisms and processes; and
• evaluation of the impacts of environmental factors on agricultural productivity.

Through such work, members of NC1034 have developed multidisciplinary knowledge about the performance of the research system that has been communicated to policymakers, scientists, farmers, and the public through multiple channels. Publications of group members have been widely cited in policy documents and reports, and NC1034 members regularly serve as committee members for policy advisory groups—such as National Academy of Sciences panels. We regularly respond to requests from federal and state agencies, provide testimony to Congress, and serve as expert witnesses in precedent-setting court cases. Our work is regularly cited in regulatory decisions governing approval and deployment of new agricultural technologies. If the group’s work were not done, some consequences would include:

1. A lack of an objective, data-driven knowledge base to inform public policy debates concerning new agricultural technologies;
2. A lack of understanding and appreciation of the contributions to society from agricultural research that benefit both consumers and producers;
3. A lack of understanding of barriers to the development and adoption of innovations that drive productivity growth and their consequences;
4. A lack of understanding the role of agricultural research in maintaining global food security and U.S. agricultural competitiveness while helping preserve natural resources, landscapes, and environmental quality at home and abroad;
5. A lack of understanding of the full nature of threats to agriculture posed by pest and other evolving factors, along with a lack of knowledge on R&D and technology diffusion strategies to limit those threats.

 

The technical feasibility of the research.

NC1034 members have developed robust methods for evaluating agricultural innovation systems and technologies. The group’s record of accomplishment of significant publications speaks to the feasibility of such methods. Methods developed by this group for agricultural research evaluation and priority setting have been adopted by practitioners worldwide and have received awards from the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association and other professional bodies.

The demands being placed on agricultural innovation systems have expanded over time and so have the NC1034 group’s methods. Members have drawn upon and shared a variety of novel methods, as problems require. These include applications of agricultural economics, industrial organization, intellectual property analysis, environmental valuation, quantitative modeling, rural sociology, human health and nutrition, machine learning, natural language processing models, and energy economics.

Given unprecedented recent disruptions in agriculture and the plethora of new actors engaged in the agricultural innovation system, NC1034 intends to seek ongoing feedback from various stakeholders on our research findings and continue to adapt research efforts accordingly. This will be initiated by inviting policymakers, industry leaders, venture capital investors, and others to participate in our research workshops. We will then seek out new opportunities to partner with appropriate stakeholders on specific studies.

 

The advantages for doing the work as a multistate effort.

NC1034 participants encompass agricultural economists, resource economists, and rural sociologists from a number of land-grant universities, public universities, research institutes, and governmental organizations. The work of NC1034 is made more effective as a multi-state effort because it allows knowledge sharing across fields and institutions, allows a comprehensive analysis of the spillovers from innovation, facilitates pooling of resources to increase collaboration, and creates a network for mentoring the next generation of researchers studying agricultural innovation and productivity.

NC1034 provides a vehicle for participants to share and develop the latest social science and quantitative analytical methods in evaluating returns to agricultural research and the socio-economic impacts of innovations. Most NC1034 members are also part of multi-disciplinary and multi-state research teams addressing important issues in agricultural technology development, adoption, and impact assessment. As part of those multi-state or multi-disciplinary teams, NC1034 participants take the lead in research problems associated with socio-economic causes and consequences of technological change. NC1034 as a multi-state effort allows participants to take these new evaluation methods back to their state and regional teams and apply them to local problems of interest. NC1034 allows members to benefit indirectly from knowledge gained directly by other members from multi-disciplinary projects. For example, one NC1034 member may gain valuable knowledge from working on a project with agronomists or entomologists and then convey the insights gained to others. Knowledge is thus shared so that social scientists and agricultural scientists may work more effectively together.

Agricultural research grants often require comprehensive evaluations of the socio-economic and environmental effects of new technologies and production practices. By continuing to develop cutting-edge evaluation methods, NC1034 members are better able to leverage grant funding and, most significantly, to make major contributions to large multi-state and multi-disciplinary projects. Furthermore, through publications and outreach, threats and opportunities can be conveyed to private and public decision makers altering R&D choices and improving future productivity plus reducing vulnerability.

Multistate collaboration facilitates comparative analyses that can also be more comprehensive. Adoption of technologies and their impacts spill over across state and international boundaries. While there is a certain value of studying impacts of new technologies in their local contexts, there is also value in the ability to compare and contrast how new technologies affect agricultural producers in different areas and in the identification of areas that may benefit from potential new technologies. Federal agencies, private industry, environmental groups and commodity groups are interested in evaluations of technology and environmental implications for technology that can be scaled-up to commodity-wide or national scale impacts. 

Members pool expertise across different production systems and environmental situations. For example, comprehensive evaluation of herbicide-resistant crop varieties requires knowledge of corn, soybean, and cotton production systems not only in a local situation but also in different agronomic regions. Pooling research expertise can help identify commonalities in new technology development and dissemination, as well as regional or crop-specific differences. Another advantage of multistate collaboration is that it can raise awareness of contributions in other fields of research and facilitate acquaintance with other potential research collaborators.

NC1034 has a long and successful history of working with the USDA Economic Research Service. University based participants in NC1034 have worked closely with ERS economists, and indeed ERS economists are active participants of NC1034. ERS has been instrumental in collecting and developing data to measure public and private agricultural R&D and productivity. NC1034 has been an important forum to discuss research methods related to data development, productivity estimation, and technology assessment. Through these forums, state-of-the-art methods for productivity measurement have undergone peer discussions and review.

NC1034 offers a unique and enduring community for mentoring the next generation of experts in the economics of agricultural productivity and innovation. Graduate students and junior faculty from across the United States benefit greatly from opportunities to present their research and receive constructive and detailed feedback from more experienced colleagues in a supportive and collegial environment. Senior members of the community are enriched by engaging  with younger colleagues who often bring fresh perspectives and deeper technical expertise  in emerging areas such as digital agriculture, automation, biotechnology, and sustainability analytics. This dynamic exchange makes NC1034 more than just a research group—it serves as an intellectual home where scholars at all stages of their careers can develop ideas, test methods, and refine policy-relevant insights. The community fosters collaboration that spans states, institutions, and disciplines, enabling members to build long-term professional networks and pursue joint projects that advance both theory and practice. Such collaboration is greatly strengthened by developing relationships across states and institutions. Through the newly founded AAEA section “Agricultural Innovation and Productivity," NC1034 will broaden its outreach to graduate students and early-career scholars, actively supporting their engagement in multi-institutional and multi-state research initiatives. By cultivating these connections, the section will not only expand professional opportunities for young scholars but also accelerate the generation of innovative research and policy insights that enhance agricultural productivity and sustainability nationwide.

Finally, the multi-state community of scholars also provides opportunities for members to economize and achieve synergies through

• the ability to pool resources and share data;
• avoiding redundancy in research activities;
• increasing specialization and complementarity in research (e.g., one member may work on one aspect of a general problem, while another researcher works on another);
• transfer of analytical methods across research applications;
• cross-pollination of ideas on factors that influence the demand for and impact of technology; and
• transfer of analysis results revealing threats and opportunities to other applicable areas.

 

What the likely impacts will be from successfully completing the work.

Future contributions will build on previous ones. These contributions will include:

• continued formal and informal communication with stakeholders on these issues through multiple channels;
• policy engagement as evidenced by contributions to National Academy of Sciences panels and responses to requests from other federal and state agencies;
• continued contributions to decision-making in the regulation of new technologies in agriculture;
• continued development of multidisciplinary knowledge about the performance of the research system; and
• a continued stream of high-impact publications and other public communications to disseminate and advance that knowledge.

Over the next five years, we envision future research to include studies that:

• continue the tradition of modeling and measuring the consequences of innovation with application not only to conventional agricultural technologies but also to deal with novel aspects of the new generations of genome editing and information technologies;
• develop new models and measures of the implications of the evolving funding structure and management of public agricultural R&D;
• explore the role of innovation in the historical and ongoing structural changes in American agriculture and associated productivity growth;
• develop detailed institutional and quantitative understandings of the causes and consequences of the recent trends in regulation of existing and prospective agricultural technologies;
• explore the role of consumer perceptions and demand for genome-edited foods on R&D investment and regulations;
• investigate the mechanisms by which technologies are introduced to farmers, both through extension and private channels;
• investigate the implications of the growing prevalence of contractual structures in the supply chain for technological diffusion;
• explore the impact of venture capital and private equity investment on agricultural R&D;
• explore the roles of startups and established firms in innovating new forms of agricultural enterprises, including “vertical farming,” meat substitutes, and cannabis production and marketing;
• evaluate private-sector agricultural input research using new market-based measures and intellectual property information;
• explore and analyze models of stewardship and ownership of on-farm data in order to understand their implications for the growth and distribution of productivity gains from precision agriculture data collection;
• analyze the impact of adoption of conservation agriculture practices on soil health and resilience and explore the potential of market-based programs to incentivize adoption of conservation practices by agricultural producers;
• assess R&D needs to address opportunities and potential challenges brought by natural disasters, pests, and increasing demand.

 

Related, Current and Previous Work

Scholars participating in NC1034 and its long history of predecessor projects have made unique and resounding contributions to our understanding of the profound economic and social impacts created by agricultural science, commercial innovation, and technological change in agriculture. Virtually every research proposal funded by the USDA or corporate R&D expenditure must be justified in terms of the contributions that it will make, such as improvements in farm productivity, consumer benefits, or resource savings. The work of NC1034 contributes, both directly and indirectly, to the intellectual and methodological foundations for such considerations. Many of the landmark contributions in this field have been made by current or past members of NC1034, including but not limited to the following (citation count is based on Google Scholar):

Alekseev, Oleg, Karel Janda, Mathieu Petit, and David Zilberman. "Return and volatility spillovers between the raw material and electric vehicles markets." Energy Economics 137 (2024): 107808. (cited by 5)

Alston, Julian M., George W. Norton, and Philip G. Pardey. Science Under Scarcity: Principles and practice for agricultural research evaluation and priority setting. Cornell University Press, 1995. (cited by 2,381)

Alston, Julian M., Matthew A. Andersen, Jennifer S. James, and Philip G. Pardey. Persistence Pays: US agricultural productivity growth and the benefits from public R&D spending. Springer Science & Business Media, 2009. (cited by 543)

Ball, V. Eldon. "Output, input, and productivity measurement in US agriculture 1948–79." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 67, no. 3 (1985): 475-486. (cited by 391)

Bansal, Sangeeta, and Madhu Khanna. "Corporate Social Responsibility: Motivations and Effectiveness in Developing Countries." International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics 18, no. 1-2 (2024): 123-164. (cited by 3)

Barrett, Christopher B., and Holly Wang. "Introducing Policy Comments." Food Policy 125 (2024): 102627. 

Barrett, Christopher B., Thomas Reardon, Johan Swinnen, and David Zilberman. "Agri-food value chain revolutions in low-and middle-income countries." Journal of Economic Literature 60, no. 4 (2022): 1316-1377. (cited by 387)

Chen, Xiaoguang, Jing Gao, Luoye Chen, Madhu Khanna, Binlei Gong, and Maximilian Auffhammer. "The spatiotemporal pattern of surface ozone and its impact on agricultural productivity in China." PNAS Nexus 3, no. 1 (2024): 1-15. (cited by 7)

Christian, Paul, and Christopher B. Barrett. “Spurious Regressions and Panel IV Estimation: Revisiting the Causes of Conflict.” The Economic Journal 134, no. 659 (2024): 1069-1099. (cited by 42)

Dorfman, Jeffrey H., Scott H. Irwin, Munisamy Gopinath, and David Zilberman. "The future of agricultural and applied economics departments." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy (2024). (cited by 7)

Evenson, Robert E., and Yoav Kislev. Agricultural Research and Productivity. Yale Univ. Press, 1975. (cited by 573)

Feder, Gershon, Richard E. Just, and David Zilberman. "Adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries: A survey." Economic Development and Cultural Change (1985): 255-298. (cited by 5,723)

Fuglie, Keith O., Sun Ling Wang, and V. Eldon Ball, eds. Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An international perspective. CABI, 2012. (cited by 179)

Huffman, Wallace E., and Robert E. Evenson. Science for Agriculture: A long-term perspective. John Wiley & Sons, 2008. (cited by 772)

Hutchins, Jared P., Scott H. Irwin “Productivity Growth from Genetic Improvement: Evidence from Illinois Soybean Trial Data.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2025) (cited by 2)

Hutchins, Jared. "The US farm credit system and agricultural development: Evidence from an early expansion, 1920–1940." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 105.1 (2023): 3-26. (cited by 23, won AJAE Outstanding Article Award)

Khanna, M., Basso, B., O’Hara, J., Zilberman, D., & Hochman, G. (2025). Climate-smart biofuel policy as a pathway to decarbonize agriculture. Science, 389(6761), 687–689. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adw6739 

Moschini, G., and H. Lapan, 1997. “Intellectual property rights and the welfare effects of agricultural R&D.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 79(4): 1229-1242. (cited by 338)

Rohr, Jason R., Alexandra Sack, Sidy Bakhoum, Christopher B Barrett, David Lopez-Carr, Andrew J Chamberlin, David J Civitello, Cledor Diatta, Molly J Doruska, Giulio A De Leo, Christopher J E Haggerty, Isabel J Jones, Nicolas Jouanard, Andrea J Lund, Amadou T. Ly, Raphael A Ndione, Justin V Remais, Gilles Riveau, Anne-Marie Schacht, Momy Seck, Simon Senghor, Susanne H Sokolow, Caitlin Wolfe, “A planetary health innovation for disease, food, and water challenges in Africa,” Nature, vol. 619, no. 7971 (July 27, 2023), pp. 782–787. (cited by 58)

Sunding, David, and David Zilberman. "The agricultural innovation process: research and technology adoption in a changing agricultural sector." Handbook of Agricultural Economics (2001): 207-262. (cited by 1,434)

 

Review of NIMSS data suggests there is very little duplication of NC1034 research activities. NC1034 research primarily applies two fields of social science—economics and sociology—to questions regarding the management of research and its impacts on the agricultural economy, on society, and on the environment. According to our search of the NIMSS database, we find only two recent multi-state projects with (weakly) related activities:

• NE2249: Sustainable and Inclusive Rural Economic Development to Enhance Housing, Health, Entrepreneurship, and Equity (previously, NE1749: Enhancing Rural Economic Opportunities, Community Resilience, and Entrepreneurship). NE2249’s duration is 2022-2027, and its research is centered on enhancing rural economic development with focuses on housing, health, and rural entrepreneurship. However, the scope of rural communities is much narrower than what NC1034 affiliated research tends to consider. Still, participants in NC1034 do already actively collaborate with colleagues in NE2249 and additional opportunities for collaborations or complementary work may arise.

 

• S1090: AI in Agroecosystems: Big Data and Smart Technology-Driven Sustainable Production. S1090’s duration is 2021-2026 and its focus is the technological applications of AI and big data in agricultural production. Although it has a social-economic component in the project, its analysis is confined to analyzing the impact of individual AI technology on expected net returns and economic risk upon adoption. In contrast, NC1034 covers almost every aspect of agricultural innovation, ranging from innovation funding sources to the social, economic, and environmental impact of the whole spectrum of technological innovation. Some members of NC1034 are founding members of S1090.

NC1034 members are highly productive scholars, publishing altogether over 1,000 peer-reviewed journal articles since the inception of the current project in 2016. In addition, they have made numerous contributions to edited volumes and government reports. They have also been active in several collaborative research and publishing efforts. For example, NC-1034 members have contributed: (a) several chapters to a volume by the prestigious National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) on Economics of Research and Innovation in Agriculture, edited by Petra Moser and published by University of Chicago Press, (b) co-editorship and chapters for a volume on California Agriculture Dimensions and Issues, (c) co-editorship and submissions to a special issue of the journal Sustainability on “Accelerating Bioeconomy Growth through Applied Research and Policy Change,” co-edited by Wesseler and Zilberman, and (d) co-editorship for the Choices Magazine, an outreach publication of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

NC1034 members at the USDA Economic Research Service and at land-grant universities have benefitted from their mutual engagement in the project. ERS economists responsible for construction and integration of national and state-level productivity accounts are NC-1034 participants, while academic NC1034 participants have made important contributions (see Ball & Norton, 2012) and have advised USDA regarding advances and improvements in the official productivity data (Shumway et al, 2015). In 2023, the NC1034 annual meeting was held consecutively with the Agricultural Productivity Growth Conference co-organized by ERS, creating synergies between participants of the two events. Since 2016, NC1034 members at the USDA ERS and universities have established several cooperative research agreements, including one with Iowa State University on R&D and agricultural productivity growth in the United States, one with the University of Arizona on the economics of plant disease control research, and one with Colorado State University on venture capital funded agricultural innovation. Five of the NC1034 members are research fellows (and the director) of the International Science & Technology Practice & Policy (InSTePP) program that brings together scholars at the University of Minnesota and elsewhere to engage in economic research on science and technology practice and policy, emphasizing the international implications.

Objectives

1. Improve measures of agricultural productivity growth; examine drivers and barriers to agricultural productivity growth; study the consumer and producer impacts of agricultural productivity growth; characterize and quantify the impacts of natural disasters, societal crises, and policy shocks on agricultural productivity; and analyze how technological innovations help agriculture to adapt to such challenges.
   
2. Document and explain changes in agricultural research funding by public and private sectors in both high-income and emerging economies as well as the causes and potential consequences of these changes.
   
3. Explain the benefits and risks of different types of public-private R&D linkages and technology transfer mechanisms for different technological and market contexts; examine and compare agricultural innovations by startups, incumbent private companies, and the public sector; investigate how different funding mechanisms (e.g., public, private, partnership) may affect research and agricultural innovation, and the potential improvements on and implications for university research and public-private partnership.
   
4. Explain the role of consumer demand, public perceptions, and regulation on the adoption of new technologies in agriculture and food, as well as their impact on decisions to invest in R&D of those technologies; estimate the heterogeneous effects of technology adoption on agribusinesses and producers of different characteristics.
   
5. Investigate the causes, nature, and impacts of digitization of agricultural production and artificial intelligence (AI) on supply chains as well as the influence of data and information technologies on management, productivity, and the structure of the industry; explore the different options for data ownership and management and the associated impact on farmer autonomy, technology adoption, and policy interventions.
   
6. Assess the implications of emerging novel agricultural and food technologies (such as vertical agriculture, smart irrigation systems, precision crop and livestock monitoring technologies, cultured meat products, robotics and machine learning) and how their development is influenced by changes in population, lifestyles, resources, and new technological opportunities; study how AI-driven technologies may shift the perceived risk of liabilities between producers, service or product providers, and AI developers, and the associated implications on adoption decisions and possible insurance and risk transfer mechanisms.
   
7. For each of the preceding objectives, raise awareness among key decision makers, stakeholders, and the public about the issues, provide evidence about causes and consequences, and inform choices for action and intervention.
   

Methods

Measurement of Progress and Results

Outputs

Outcomes or Projected Impacts

Milestones

Projected Participation

View Appendix E: Participation

Outreach Plan

Organization/Governance

Literature Cited

Attachments

Land Grant Participating States/Institutions

CO, IA, IL, NY, TX, WA

Non Land Grant Participating States/Institutions