Duration: 10/01/2018 to 09/30/2023

Administrative Advisor(s):

NIFA Reps:

Non-Technical Summary

Statement of Issues and Justification

Related, Current and Previous Work

Objectives

1. 
   
2. Determine the impacts of international trade agreements and institutions on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment. Specifically, to examine the potential implications of the following:
   Comments: a. renegotiating preferential trade agreements (e.g., NAFTA), b. not engaging in preferential trade agreements (e.g. Trans Pacific Partnership), and c. future preferential trade agreements

Methods

Methods to accomplish these objectives include econometrics, simulation, spatial and optimization models, and time series analysis. Market behavior, supply and demand along with risk and uncertainty will be studied using these methods. The economic impacts will focus on changes in output, value added, employment, the welfare of consumers and producers, and government expenditures. Measures of economic performance will focus on prices, trade, economies at the regional and national level, and the environment. In addition, we will develop new methods and extend existing methods to accomplish these objectives.

 

Objective 1: Determine the impacts of U.S. and foreign policies, regulations, market structures, and productivity on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the agricultural sector, the economy, and the environment. Specifically, research oriented toward this objective will seek to identify the effects of: i) foreign direct investment and multinational firms; ii) international and national events and policies; and iii) c.     economic growth and changing policies of developing and emerging economies, including safeguards or other mechanisms that target food security. The current state of affairs related to each of these sub-objectives is such that there is tremendous uncertainty in the area of U.S. food and agricultural trade. In the past five years, exporters of US agricultural goods have faced new restrictions for a variety of reasons (e.g. China restricting corn and/or dried distillers grain imports due to SPS restrictions on unapproved genetic traits, new TRQs in place for ethanol imports into Brazil, etc.) and have even sought to impose their own new restrictions (e.g. the sugar export restriction against Mexico and, potentially, biodiesel export restrictions against Argentina and Indonesia). This project will consider how these and other potential policy changes might affect food and agricultural trade.

 

For Objective 1, researchers will focus appropriate methods on selected trade or policy issues. In keeping with multistate collaboration, the issues were specifically selected by the committee because they represent the current state of affairs. The collective results will address the multi-dimensional aspects of international trade. The meta-themes of this goal include understanding the effects on agricultural trade of foreign direct investment and multinational firms, trade deficits, domestic and foreign policies and standards, and trade with developing economies. Individually and collectively the team will generate research to address these issues across multiple commodities and policies.

 

Regarding Objective 1a, specifically, there are multiple aspects of foreign direct investment (FDI) and multinational firms that researchers in this project propose to investigate. For example, researchers have identified a need to expand previous work that examine the impact of international capital movements on product trade and to expand on previous literature that studies the relationship between multinational firms, specifically multinational agriculture firms, and intellectual property rights (Florida). Another line of investigation would examine effects of trade deficit and FDI on countries’ gains from agricultural trade (Iowa). Other output might include estimates of the effects of Canadian FDI in the U.S. forestry industry in response to the Pine Beetle outbreak in Canada (Louisiana).

 

Objective 1b focuses primarily on the impact of specific events and policies in the U.S. and abroad and their effects on agricultural trade. The research questions and subsequent methods applied toward meeting this objective are wide-ranging. Many empirical trade models (e.g. the gravity model), general equilibrium models (e.g GTAP), and partial equilibrium models (e.g. FAPRI-MU) will be further developed and adapted to examine the relationships between policy announcements, or other major events, and international trade flows.

 

From a strictly trade policy perspective, researchers are proposing to develop econometric models to estimate the relationship between market access and barriers to entry (e.g. conditions, tariffs, non-tariff measures, etc.) that might hamper bilateral trade flows (North Carolina, North Dakota, Iowa). Specifically, they seek to put these results into perspective by examining state-level trade flows. Retaliatory measures and their effects have also been identified as an area for proposed research. In particular, researchers will seek to understand how such measures affect U.S. agricultural competitiveness in the global marketplace and how changes in trade flows might affect rural economies from both the production and consumption perspectives (Louisiana).

 

As the current farm bill is set to expire in 2018, there is particular interest in analyzing the impact of farm bills, past and present, as well as the impact of any potential changes in farm bill legislation that occur in the near term (Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota). A related research thrust will apply a simulation model to further examine how U.S. crop insurance premium subsidies affect international trade in relation to WTO agreements (Kansas).

 

We also anticipate a demand for scientific assessment of agricultural and biofuel policies after the near-term needs as the next farm bill takes shape (Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and North Dakota). Furthermore, China’s recently announced target of completely transitioning their motor gasoline use to a 10% ethanol blend by 2020 could have wide-ranging impacts on not only the trade flows of agricultural commodities (e.g. corn, distillers grains, and ethanol), but it could also have important consequences for the environment in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, land use change, etc. Participants from Missouri anticipate partnering with other project participants to examine environmental effects that arise from such policy changes.

 

There is also potential for changes in U.S. immigration policy to affect bilateral trade flows between the U.S. and countries around the globe, and potential for such policy shifts to alter the output mix of U.S. agriculture. Further, the importance of migration on production-trade efficiency will be examined following the methods outlined in Glazyrina and Shaik (2011). Researchers in this project propose to develop econometric models to analyze the effects of immigration policy shocks on trade flows specific to East Asia and Latin America, and the extent to which the output mix U.S. livestock, fruit, and vegetable production is affected (North Carolina, North Dakota).

 

Researchers are also proposing to develop and apply economic tools to further investigate the effects of food fraud and food labeling laws in a globalized world (Tennessee, Wyoming). Typical ways of eliciting consumers’ preferences for food labeling laws and opinions of food fraud include using surveys and experimental approaches. For example, choice experiments, experimental auctions, and contingent valuation methods are typically used to determine consumers’ willingness to pay for different food labels.

 

Objective 1c covers the need for further research relating to food security issues and trade with developing economies. Several researchers have proposed further studies related to U.S.-Africa trade, in particular (Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and North Dakota). Specifically, some studies will develop tools to highlight the importance of distribution in addressing food security (Florida, Louisiana), while others will apply input-output and dynamic gravity models to focus on the specific effects of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (North Dakota and North Carolina).

 

Others propose to undertake more commodity specific analyses, paying special attention to rice, cocoa, and coffee (Missouri, USDA). Methods include simulation models, demand system analysis, input allocation models, and other dynamic frameworks to assess how trade flows to developing countries have evolved over time and how they might continue to in response to different trade policies or consumer preferences.

 

Objective 2: Determine the impacts of international arrangements and institutions on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment. Specifically, research oriented toward this objective will examine the impacts of: i) renegotiating existing preferential trade agreements; ii) pulling out of, or otherwise not engaging in, preferential trade agreements; and iii) future preferential trade agreements.

 

International institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are still significant players in international trade. Keeping up with changes in these institutions is vital to the movement of international trade. Previous work considered the impacts of new trade agreements, such as the recently signed FTAs with Colombia and Korea (KORUS) and the potential Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), U.S-EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). However, there has been a recent push to reexamine or renegotiate some of these existing regional trade agreements (e.g. NAFTA and KORUS) and to pull out of other agreements entirely (e.g. TPP and Brexit) perhaps in favor of more bilateral trade agreements. Thus, there is a renewed effort to examine how these changes might affect agricultural trade and other sectors of the economy, in general. The project will also consider other agreements that do not include the U.S. such as COMESA and MERCOSUR that may affect U.S. trade relationships. In addition, it is important to determine the impact of existing and new trade agreements on the environment.

 

To meet objective 2a, researchers have proposed many projects that aim to investigate the effects of renegotiating preferential trade agreements. Of particular note are the analyses of NAFTA renegotiation talks that are in process at the time of writing. Previous iterations of this project examined the effects of NAFTA when it was first negotiated, and researchers have identified the need to revisit and expand those studies in light of any changes in the renegotiated terms (Florida, Louisiana, Ohio State, Missouri, and Tennessee)

 

Researchers have also identified a need to assess the impacts of withdrawing or pulling out of trade agreements. The motivation stems, in part, from the U.S. deciding to pull out of the TPP, and there is already research examining the potential cost of that withdrawal (Florida and Tennessee) There is also a motivation from the potential of a withdrawal from NAFTA and KORUS (Missouri and USDA) as well as the stagnation of a TTIP agreement between the U.S. and the EU.

 

Finally, there is some interest regarding future, or potential, preferential trade agreements. If the current aversion to large, multilateral trade agreements leads to a number of new bilateral agreements, researchers involved with this project are poised to examine the effects of these agreements on U.S. agricultural trade flows. (Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, Tennessee, Iowa, and USDA).

Measurement of Progress and Results

Outputs

• Journal Articles
• Books and Book Chapters
• Professional Papers
• Conference Presentations
• Organized Conferences

Outcomes or Projected Impacts

• Increase ability to understand and predict changes resulting from changes in trade agreements.
• Increase ability to understand and predict changes resulting from changes in domestic policy
• More clientele exposure to trade research and information.

Milestones

(2019):Organize and conduct organized symposia and invited paper sessions at regional, national, and international professional meetings and other fora to extend the applied research results obtained within this regional research project.

(2020):Organize and conduct a major conference outlining the changes occurring in trade agreements and their effects on U.S. agriculture

(2021):Conduct a regional workshop related to emerging issues in trade agreements and their effects on important clientele groups and commodities in the United States. Proceedings from this conference will be disseminated as a web-based regional experiment station bulletin

Projected Participation

View Appendix E: Participation

Outreach Plan

Information will be made available to users through refereed and non-refereed articles, technical publications, as well as through organized symposia and selected papers at professional meetings, and books. In addition, the committee regularly sponsors, participates in, and/or organizes major regional and national conferences with both web access to proceedings and popular press coverage.

Organization/Governance

All members of this multi-state HATCH project are eligible for office. This organization is as follows: 

Officers: The chairperson is elected by the voting members to a one-year term and may be re-elected for additional terms of office. The chairperson, in consultation with the administrative advisor, notifies the committee members of the time and place of meetings, prepares the agenda, and presides at meetings of the committee and executive committee. He or she is responsible for preparing the annual report of the project. The existing S-1062 chairperson will serve as the chair of the new committee for a one-year term (through Fall 2018). Following the end of the chairperson’s term, the secretary of the project will then become chairperson.

Secretary: The secretary records the minutes and performs other duties assigned by the committee or the administrative advisor. He or she is elected by the voting members to a one-year term and will then become chair of the committee. The existing S-1062 secretary will serve as the secretary of the new committee for a one-year term (through Fall 2018). At that time, a new secretary for the new committee will be elected for a one-year term as secretary and then will become chair in the following year. 

Subcommittees: The Project has an executive committee that is designated to conduct the business of the committee between meetings and perform other duties as assigned by the committee. It consists of the Project chairperson, secretary, and two other members of the committee. These two members are elected by the voting members of the committee to one-year terms and may be reelected for additional terms of office. Other subcommittees are named by the chairperson as needed for specific assignments such as developing procedures, planning conferences, and preparing publications.

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