W4133: Costs and Benefits of Natural Resources on Public and Private Lands: Management, Economic Valuation, and Integrated Decision-Making

(Multistate Research Project)

Status: Inactive/Terminating

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Date of Annual Report: 04/19/2018

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 02/21/2018 - 02/23/2018
Period the Report Covers: 03/01/2017 - 02/28/2018

Participants

Ando, Amy-University of Illinois
Backstrom, Jesse-Texas A&M University
Bell, Kathleen-University of Maine
Bi, Xiang-University of Florida
Dissanayake, Sahan-Portland State University
Dunda, Steven-Oregon State University
Garnache, Cloe-Michigan State University
Gibson, Matthew-Williams College
Graming, Ben-UIUC, Purdue
Hansen, LeRoy-ERS
Hearne, Robert-North Dakota State University
Interis, Matthew-Mississippi State University
Jacobson, Michael-Pennsylvania State University
Jakus, Paul-Utah State
Johnston, Robert-Clark University
Kelsoe, Caroline-Mississippi State University
Kolstoe, Sonja-Salisbury University
Landry, Crag-University of Georgia
Lewis, Lynne-Bates College
Lupi, Frank-Michigan State University
Manning, Dale-Colorado State University
McLeod, Donald-University of Wyoming
Meldrum, James-USGS
Moeltner, Klaus-Virginia Tech
Mueller, Julie-Northern Arizona University
Nelson, Nanette-University of Montana
Parthum, Bryan-University of Illinois
Penn, Jerrod-Louisiana State University
Petrolia, Daniel-Mississippi State University
Ready, Richard-University of Montana
Rollins, Kim-University of Nevada, Reno
Shaw, Douglas-Texas A&M University
Shonwiler, Scott-University of Georgia
Shr, Yau-Huo (Jimmy)-Iowa State University
Sohngen, Brent-Ohio State University
Tanaka, John-University of Wyoming
von Haefen, Roger-North Carolina State University
Yun, Seong Do-Mississippi State University
Zhong, Hua-University of Nevada, Reno
Zimmerman, Emily-Iowa State University

Brief Summary of Minutes

The business meeting portion of the workshop included Frank Lupi, Roger von Haefen, Amy Ando, Brent Songhen, Dale Manning, Dan Petrolia, Seong Yun, Robert Hearne, Ben Gramig, Jared Penn, Don McCleod, Scott Shonkwiler, Matt Innteris, Klaus Moeltner, Julie Mueller, Xiang Bi, Michael Jacobsen, Kathleen Bell, John Tanaka, Paul Jakus, Kim Rollins, Rich Ready, and Cloe Garnache.

The meeting began with Ben Gramig rotating off of organizing committee. Dale Manning is president, with Craig Landry as vice president. New secretary is Matt Interis—his nomination was seconded and approved by the group.

Action items included a system for compiling accomplishments and impacts from W4133 members. It was decided that Manning would use a standard format for reporting that would make recharter easier in the future. After Manning is granted access to reporting system, he is to compile and submit the report.

John Tanaka noted that there is a need for w4133 members to integrate work better, perhaps by jointly seeking grants (e.g., NIFA CAP grants). Therefore, next year’s meeting will be centered around key topic areas. After presentations of current work, we will leave time for discussion and potential avenues for joint research moving forward.

John Bergstrom (UGA) submitted a statement voicing concern over capacity for W-4133 meeting; in the future, organizing committee needs to commit to timely release of call for abstracts and attendance to gauge the necessary size of the meeting space early enough to take measures to accommodate all W-4133 members, other researchers (including those at federal agencies), and graduate students. This will be considered moving forward.

Finally. Julie Mueller was recognized for her work organizing the re-charter effort.

Accomplishments

Northern Arizona University used matching methods to understand the impacts of post-wildfire flooding on house prices. The work incorporates GIS hydrological maps into a hedonic property model, and finds that post wildfire flooding has a significant and negative impact on house prices  Northern Arizona University, led a research effort to further understanding of the impacts of proximity and viewshed on Willingness to Pay (WTP) for forested watershed restoration in Flagstaff, Arizona. The study incorporates data from the largest landscape scale forest restoration project in US history. The results have policy relevance for decision-making regarding future restoration in the Western US. Northern Arizona University, incorporated valuation methods to estimate preferences for restoration of springs in Grand Canyon National Park. The valuation was aimed at improving understanding of losses from uranium mining and the potential designation of the Grand Canyon National Heritage Monument. The work is published in Land Use Policy. The Ohio State team conducted economic analysis of natural hazards associated with climate change, including assessment of effects of climate on coastal zones and public and private forestland. In addition, the members of the team examined the costs and benefits of methods to address water quality problems in agricultural systems.  The Ohio State team made advances in valuation techniques, in particular with continued development of advanced hedonic methods, and to assess the impacts of water quality damages on recreational resources in Ohio. Members of the Ohio State team assessed impacts and changes to important state, national and international ecosystem services related primarily to forested and aquatic ecosystems, including assessment of how important ecosystem service flows can benefit society through mitigation of climate change. Research by Pennsylvania State University completed this year, under Objective 1, resulted in an improvement in our understanding of climate change impacts in a number of areas: (1) how water institutions in the U.S. affect the efficient allocation of scarce water; (2) how climate change-induced increases in irrigation can exacerbate unsustainable groundwater extraction; (3) how climate change-induced shifts in location choice in the U.S. is dampened by changes in labor wages; and (4) how FEMA adaptation strategies affect property damages from hurricanes. Target audience(s) reached during this reporting period include US government agencies (US Department of Energy; US Environmental Protection Agency); United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; National Science Foundation, climate change research community. The project has funded three graduate students in the past year. Pennsylvania State University will be pursuing two key areas of research.  The first is to continue our work connecting statistical modeling with water balance modeling to study the implications of climate change on irrigation decisions, and the effects on water supply.  We will be connecting this work to a crop model to estimate the effects on crop yields which will be incorporated into a computable general equilibrium model to estimate the effects on crop prices.  Second, we will continue our work on water institutions to study how institutions could be redesigned to allow for a better allocation of water in a water constrained world. The University of Vermont is using the forest model LPJ-Guess to project the responses of forests across New England to projected climate change. In particular, we are first constructing a set of downscaled regional climate projections using an ensemble set of global climate model projections.  Then we are driving our forest model using this set of downscaled climate projections in order to examine the influence of climate and the spatial scale of climate projections on forest change and composition. Forest response to climate change will have large implications for ecosystem services and economic valuation of forests across New England. The University of Vermont has completed the first step in our proposed work:  We have statistically downscaled an ensemble of climate data from a series of GCMs that span climate change scenarios.  These data will next be used to drive simulations of the LPJ-Guess forest model. The University of Florida received funding to study the economic importance of the Ocklawaha river in Florida from Marion County Soil and Water Conservation District; Felburn Foundation, Silver Springs Alliance, Florida Defenders of the Environment, Putnam County Environmental Council, Suwannee-St. Johns Chapter Sierra Club, and St. Johns Riverkeeper. Amounts: 32,000. Feb 2016 to Feb 2007. The University of Florida delivered the report titled “Economic Importance and Public Preferences for Water Resource Management of the Ocklawaha River” to the funding organizations in Nov. 2017. The report has been posted online by Silver Springs Alliances for improving the public’s understanding on the challenges for water resources management in the Ocklawaha river region. Specifically, the economic impact provided by the river and the reservoir along the river is about $21 million to the local economy and supports 278 jobs. <a href="http://silverspringsalliance.org/ocklawaha">http://silverspringsalliance.org/ocklawaha</a> The University of Florida improved the public’s understanding on the values of Florida’s natural springs through presentation at the Springs Protection Forum; informed the stakeholders the four springs studied generated 57 million recreation benefits to Florida residents. Oregon State University published a paper that empirically estimated the economic values associated with public investment in coastal dunes. The primary finding is that coastal dunes increases housing values by approximately 3 percent but that public adaptation efforts may have ancillary impacts that may offset policy goals (i.e. storm protection services). Oregon State University and collaborators published a paper that uses econometric methods to estimate non-market recreation costs of a land-use policy to protect coastal biodiversity. Results suggest the economic costs of the policy are relatively modest, ranging from $403,000 to $2.07 million annually and provide general support for the National Park Service’s recently implemented off-road vehicle management plan in Cape Hatteras National Seashore. Iowa State University has advanced several key aspects of environmental valuation methodologies. One project examines how sensitive recreational benefit estimates are to the metric used to measure water quality. These results will help inform policy makers of the implications of using various water quality metrics for cost-benefit analyses. A second project by these researchers tests the stability of welfare estimate from revealed preference methods using a unique panel of recreational visits to lakes within the state of Iowa. This study will provide guidance to policy makers when transferring economic benefit estimates over time. Iowa State University’s work outlines the history and current state of knowledge for integrated assessment models of air and water pollution. This work helps highlight how these models help inform both ex ante and ex post analyses of federal, state, and local regulations. During this project, Iowa State University continued to develop an integrated assessment model of water pollution in the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Tennessee watersheds. This model will help analyze land use and water quality policies that affect a wide range of water uses such as drinking water and water-based recreational use. Mississippi State University research has provided a better understanding of if and how producers will accept contracts for growing bio-energy crops.  Our results indicate that many farmers are suspicious of growing such crops as well as the prospect of there being markets in which to sell them.  (Project members involved:  D.R. Petrolia) Mississippi State University research has provided a better understanding of which flood mitigation strategies communities undertake, and the extent to which these strategies accomplish the purported goals of the FEMA-NFIP Community Rating System: reducing flood risk and increasing NFIP participation.  Mississippi State University research has provided a better understanding of how valuation estimates differ across alternative choice methods (CVM, repeated choice CE, and repeated choice CE with best-worst elicitation), and has contributed to the ongoing debate regarding the stated-preference methods, and how they can be used for policy-relevant analysis.  Mississippi State University research has provided a better understanding of consumer preferences for Gulf-Coast grown oysters relative to competing oyster varieties from the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts.  Michigan State University collected and analyzed survey and spatial data related to the uses and values of coastal sand dune areas in Michigan and provided information to the Office of the Great Lakes on the implications for management of coastal dunes. Michigan State University designed and developed a web-based platform to conduct an online survey of visitors to coastal sand dune areas in Michigan and collect spatial data about the sites and locations of their visits. The online survey included questions about the number of trips to coastal dunes in the past 12 months, recreation activities, trip spending, and social and cultural values associated with protecting coastal dunes. The online survey was conducted from May to October, 2017. Michigan State University organized a Dunes Summit that was held May 8, 2017 in Muskegon, Michigan. The objectives of the Summit were to provide the latest scientific information about coastal dune management, and to unveil the online survey platform used in the project. The University of Rhode Island worked on a project, The Effect of Informational Nudges to Promote Voluntary Behavior to Reduce Nonpoint Source Pollution: A Randomized Controlled Trial in the Field, (sponsored mainly by the NSF EPSCoR [NEWRnet] and partly by the RI Agricultural Experiment Station Hatch Regional – RI0015-W4133) which involved a field experiment related to lawn care management. The goal of this field experiment was to improve our understanding of how people make lawn-care decisions in Southern New England and what impact monetary and non-monetary incentives may have in changing lawn care management. The University of Rhode Island conducted the research in Rhode Island, U.S., and its neighboring counties in southern Massachusetts and western Connecticut. This region is one of the most densely populated in the U.S. and has a high coverage rate of turfgrass (Milesi et al. 2005). As the urbanization process continues, agricultural and forest land is transformed to urban and suburban usage, and lawns are often planted as ground cover on open spaces attached to houses and buildings (Jenkins 2015). The importance of neighborhood appearance and concern for aesthetics are driving residents to water and fertilize lawns frequently and use other practices to maintain the greenness of their lawns (Nielson and Smith 2005). Significant NPS pollution is generated from these types of lawn care practices, and it is recognized as one of the causes of water quality impairments (e.g., RIDEM 2014). In 2015, RIDEM started a program to green-certify lawn care companies who adopt BMPs to reduce their environmental impact when managing residential lawns. The green-certified lawn care companies fulfill a menu of BMPs covering a range of activities focusing on efficient turf management and water conservation. They protect environmental quality by reducing pollution, conserving water and other natural resources such as soil. Green-certified lawn care companies need to adopt additional BMPs to get re-certified every two years. Rhode Island has about 400 lawn care businesses, but only ten lawn care companies (about 2.5%) were green-certified as of January 2017. The green certification program by RIDEM is an example of the state-level effort to reduce NPS pollution by promoting voluntary “green services” from the supply side. Lawn care companies’ behavior varies largely when managing residential lawns (Law et al. 2004). Interviews with lawn care professionals in Rhode Island revealed that owners of companies who pursue this green certification want to fulfill social responsibility and also seek additional customers by receiving the green certification. The premise is that if more consumers adopt professional lawn care services because of the green certification, more lawn care companies will react to the signal and get green-certified. The University of Rhode Island partnered with a state-wide professional landscape association (the Rhode Island Nursery and Landscape Association (RINLA)) and three green-certified landscaping companies to conduct the experiment. The University of Rhode Island tested the effect of two treatments on stated and revealed preferences for green-certified lawn care: informational nudges and financial incentives. The treatments are varied between participants in a two-by-two design (Table 1). The experiment was implemented in a structured survey coded in Qualtrics, an online survey software. Respondents of the survey are all introduced to RIDEM’s green certification program, and two-thirds of them are randomly chosen to receive the informational nudges treatment. The University of Rhode Island introduced a cross-randomized incentive treatment after the first randomization of information. Three-quarters of the respondents were selected randomly to receive financial incentives, and one-quarter receive none. To differentiate the effects of different informational nudges and different level of financial incentives, The University of Rhode Island implemented two types of nudges and two levels of incentives in the experiment (Table 1). More specifically, all respondents are first introduced to RIDEM’s Green Certification program and the green-certified lawn care companies (see Appendix I). The first segment of the introduction presents information on the green certification program and some BMPs implemented by the lawn care companies, followed by an infographic developed for this experiment by a professional designer summarizing the BMPs. The University of Rhode Island also provided information and website links to a few reputable sources about these BMPs from three state universities in the study area (the University of Massachusetts, the University of Connecticut and the University of Rhode Island). Next, two-thirds of the respondents received additional information that makes salient the relationship between lawn care practices and water quality (Nudge 1). An infographic was developed for this purpose (Appendix I). We envision that the salient information would increase homeowners’ moral cost of  “non-green”  practices on their lawns and thus serve as a nudge to change their behavior. Phrases such as “Runoff flows into aquatic habitats, where, just like your lawn, fertilizer makes plants grow. However, too much growth can lead to not enough oxygen in the water, killing fish and other aquatic lives.” is shown in this infographic. Furthermore, half of the respondents who received Nudge 1 were shown another infographic (Nudge 2) aimed to test the effect of social comparison. This infographic displays the information about how many households in Rhode Island, i.e., the respondents’ ‘neighbors,’ have already chosen green-certified lawn care contracts in 2016. The University of Rhode Island hypothesize that social comparison could change homeowners’ behavior as it did in the energy saving literature (e.g., Ferraro and Price 2013). Additionally, one of two levels of financial incentives were given to three-quarters of the subjects. A low financial incentive covers twenty-five percent of the contract fee for one year (or $75 maximum) and a high incentive covers 50% of the contract fee for one year (or $150 maximum). According to RINLA, an average contract fee for a typical green-certified lawn care contract is $300. Of the three-quarters of the respondents, two-thirds received the low financial incentive, and one-third received the high financial incentive. The survey was officially launched at the end of February 2017 and was scheduled to conclude at the end of March 2017. However, due to inclement weather and the subsequent delay of the start of lawn care season, The University of Rhode Island extended the survey closing date until April 15th. The University of Rhode Island used three outcome variables to measure the impact of informational nudges and financial incentives on nudging behavior: stated WTP for green-certified lawn care contracts, stated likelihood to hire green-certified lawn care companies, and whether or not the subject gave personal contact information to the three green-certified lawn care companies. The regression models control for household lawn care characteristics (e.g., the acreage of lawns) and respondents’ characteristics (e.g., age, gender, income, etc.). The analysis of three outcome variables indicates that information nudges can induce stated willingness of behavior change, but have a limited effect on actual behavior. Specifically, the respondents report WTP premiums and a higher likelihood to sign contracts when we present them the informational nudges. However, the information nudges alone do not induce more respondents to take the first step to obtain contracts. When the informational nudges and the financial incentives are given as a bundle, The University of Rhode Island detected that a small financial incentive backfires and crowds out the positive effect of informational nudges on stated likelihood. In contrast, the informational nudges do not have a significant impact on the likelihood to take the first step to sign the contracts unless complemented by the financial incentives. The University of Rhode Island’s findings also suggest financial incentives have a larger effect when people have high NEP Scales. Nevertheless, the combination of informational nudges and a large financial incentive is promising because it has positive effects for both stated and revealed preferences. Financial incentives are complements for informational nudges based on real actions. The discrepancies between the treatment effects on the stated willingness and real behavior suggest that previous studies that only examine the stated preferences may overestimate the effect of outreach campaigns. The results of this study further point out another direction for state and federal agencies as well as advocacy groups when promoting BMPs to control nonpoint source pollution from residential lawns, i.e., adding financial incentives to outreach campaigns. From the green-certified lawn companies’ point of view, advertising the social benefit of green-certification and proper financial incentives increase the number of contracts. The University of Rhode Island project, Impact of offshore wind turbines on number of trips and distribution of recreational activities on Block Island, examined the impact of offshore wind energy production on the number of trips taken and on the choice of recreational activities conducted in Block Island. The offshore wind farm in Block Island, Rhode Island, is the first one to be installed in the United States. Literature hypothesizes that visual disamenity is a possible effect of offshore wind farms since it obstructs the view of the sea from coastal landscapes. Block Island is a popular summer tourist destination where both residents and tourists engage in several recreational activities. The University of Rhode Island proposed to conduct a survey to understand whether the installation of these offshore wind turbines have any effect on the number of trips taken and the distribution of recreational activities in Block Island. This study can enable policy makers to gain more insight on the location and placement of future offshore wind turbine installations. For this research, two focus group sessions were conducted at the URI library in Kingston, Rhode Island. The objective of these sessions was to understand how people engage in recreational activities and their attitudes towards the offshore wind farms constructed in Block Island. The focus groups’ findings will be used to refine our survey. The survey was coded in Qualtrics, an online survey software and is planned to be officially launched in June 2018. We plan on recruiting subjects from Qualtrics panel. Qualtrics recruits their panel members through an extensive review process. The survey is anticipated to take ten minutes or fewer to complete. North Carolina State University along with colleagues at NCSU, RTI International, and the University of Maryland, have continued working on an EPA-funded project designed to measure willingness to pay for improvements in water quality in wadeable streams in urbanizing watersheds. Several focus groups designed to better understand how people perceive and value water quality have been conducted in the past year.  These activities have identified four dimensions of water quality that are most important to the public: 1) clarity; 2) algae; 3) ecosystem health; and 4) human health risks. A summary report on all grant-related activities was sent to EPA in August 2017. North Carolina State University along with colleagues at Michigan State University and the University of Maryland, have been working on a project that aims to assess the natural resource damages associated with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010.  This multi-year project is funded by NOAA and Gulf Coast states and my collaborators and I are trying to publish our research findings in academic journals.  The team has four drafted papers, two of which are revise and resubmits at leading field journals in environmental economics (Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, and American Journal of Agricultural Economics).  This project is also leading to new research using the extraordinary data collected, and most of these projects are joint with graduate students at North Carolina State University. Finally, North Carolina State University has a project centered on the Marine Resource Information Program (MRIP) data set that NOAA collects to measure recreational catch.  The data set is extraordinary in its spatial and temporal scale, and there has been surprisingly little research done with it.  One line of research coming out of this project is an assessment of the off-road vehicle (ORV) restrictions in Cape Hatteras National Seashore, which has led to a publication in Marine Resource Economics and media coverage in several state and local news outlets. A second line of research examines how willingness to pay for recreational fishing trips varies across time (1998-2017) and space (Maine to Louisiana).  A third line of research looks at how weather correlates with coastal recreation fishing with an eye towards assessing how climate change may impact coastal recreation fishing. Colorado State University has partnered with researchers from universities across the Ogallala region to expand our modeling of water resource management to the rest of the region.  This effort includes an interdisciplinary effort to model economic decisions as a function of agronomic and hydrologic conditions that producers face. Colorado State University has also obtained a grant to examine how crop insurance affects land and water management decisions on agricultural land.  As part of this, we have formed a partnership with ERS researcher, Roger Claassen.  Finally, Colorado State University has received notice that we will be funded to work with Kim Rollins and others at UN-Reno on water institutions and climate change adaptation. Colorado State University completed a survey of producers to examine attitudes towards water conservation policy.  This survey aimed to quantify the impact of scientific and economic information about policies on the acceptability of policies. Virginia Tech, in collaboration with Reed College, developed a new Bayesian matching estimator to evaluate the discount on residential properties from being located in a high-risk flood zone in coastal and inland areas of Connecticut. Virginia Tech and collaborators are the first to find that such impacts are by far the strongest along a slim band of 0.25 miles from the coastline. Since all high-risk zoned properties face the same insurance obligations and rates, our findings imply that inland properties de fact subsidize coastal properties, given the large differential in both actual and market-revealed flood risk.  A paper based on this research was submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. Concurrently, Virginia Tech developed a repeated sales model as well as novel matching estimators to estimate the impacts on housing markets of watershed improvement project along the Johnson Creek streambed in the Portland, OR area. We find that impacts vary based on project stage (pre, during, post, mature), distance from the project area, and type of intervention.  Virginia Tech submitted three papers based on this research to peer-reviewed journals. Economists and social scientists from University of Maine, University of Massachusetts, Cornell University, and University Vermont conducted economic analyses to better understand the priorities and decision-making of private forest landowners in the Northeast as they negotiate changing forest product markets, land management policies, regional economies, demographics, and environmental conditions. Initial research focused on owner management of land transitions indicates that landowners make tradeoffs when considering the future ownership and use of their forest lands; while a majority of these landowners have wills, fewer landowners are using formal estate planning tools to designate the future use of their forest lands (Markowski-Lindsay et al. 2017). Collaborating with extension staff from four states and with USDA, USFS staff, these researchers are using their findings to help update communication and outreach tools designed to support forest landowners.  Economists from University of Maine, Clark University, and Bowdoin College advanced a conceptual model linking economic theory to the management of small natural features on private lands (Bauer et al., 2017). Collaborating with ecologists, these researchers also helped advance broader discussions of conservation approaches and strategies for the provision of ecosystem services (Hunter et al. 2017; Calhoun et al. 2017). Economists from University of Maine and Clark University completed an assessment of the search for health and safety information by visitors to Maine and New Hampshire beaches (Kaminski et al., 2017) and the potential allocation of funds by citizens to distinct coastal water quality management options (Evans et al., 2017). Findings suggest beach users are more aware of safety risks associated with surf conditions than risks associated with poor water quality conditions and that differing support for preventative actions versus adaptive measures could help explain heterogeneous support for coastal zone management programs. Working with collaborators from state agencies, researchers are helping improve decision-support tools related to these natural and man-made coastal hazards.  Economists and social scientists from University of Maine and Bowdoin College completed analyses of river restoration efforts to better understand institutional and community responses to changing river systems. Results to date suggest mismatches between actual changes in river conditions and public perceptions of those changes can influence watershed management strategies and amenity infrastructure investments (Johnson, E., Bell, K.P., and Leahy, J. 2017 and 2018). The University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign completed a manuscript to inform management of flood hazards and submitted it for review. The university used a contingent valuation survey to evaluate homeowner willingness to pay for a novel pre-flood agreement such that the homeowner pre-commits to relocating if a flood damages their home by more than 50% of its value, in exchange for which they gain an expedited and streamlined buyout process with payment equal to the full market value of their home. The study finds that nearly all homeowners would gain value from being able to enter into such a contract. The University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign worked with coauthors to complete and publish a paper that sets forth principles for optimal spatial targeting of conservation investment to reduce outcome risk with the smallest possible reduction in the expected level of ecological benefits when the decision maker is interested in multiple distinct environmental targets. The University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign has collaborated with researchers in Missouri to identify key attributes of water quality improvements in the Corn Belt that should be valued. The university is now working with a graduate student to refine a choice-experiment survey to estimate how an individual’s WTP for water quality improvements in a watershed in Illinois is affected by their proximity to the area where landscape changes are implemented to accomplish the change and by their affiliation with farming, the affected economic sector. The University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign collaborated with Reed College to write a review of the literature estimating the values of green infrastructure. A team of researchers from W4133 partner universities UIUC and Oregon State wrote an analytical review of research on the economics of species conservation. The partners analyzed research on the values of species conservation and optimal policy design for species conservation. University of Wyoming is working on a grant, “Investigating Potential Impacts of Non-Attainment Risk on Conservation Exchange Outcomes”, January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2018 Grant requested amount is $74,317.  Research has been completed regarding habitat conservation markets using experimental economics methods.  University of Wyoming conducted experiments and analysis was completed.  Presentation were made at Center for Behavioral, and Experimental Agroenvironmental Research Conference.  Paper was submitted to Environmental and Resource Economics.  Outreach publication sent to stakeholders on habitat conservation markets including Environmental Defense Fund, Wyoming Stockgrowers Association, and others involved in developing habitat exchange in Wyoming. University of Wyoming worked on a grant, “Incentivizing Open Spaces in Wyoming to Promote Pollinator Habitat: Applying Agglomeration Bonuses to Unite Fragmented Habitat.” (2014-2015). Grant amount was $10,192.  Research was completed regarding pollinator habitat policy design using experimental economics methods. Economic Experiments were conducted and analysis completed. Two papers were submitted for publication.  An invited presentation was made at the Department of Plant Sciences Seminar at the University of Wyoming.  Manuscript were accepted and published in Land.  One was submitted to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  It was rejected.  Now in revision for resubmission to American Journal of Agricultural Economics.  Paper also accepted for presentation at the World Congress of Environmental Economics. University of Wyoming worked on a grant, “Overcoming Honeybee Pollination Market Deficiencies in the Intermountain West and Pacific Coast,” 2015-2017. Grant amount was $149,585. Research was completed regarding almond growers’ valuation of honey bee pollination services using a choice experiment.  Abstract were submitted for presentation at the Western Agricultural Economics Annual Meetings. The manuscript is in preparation for submission to an academic journal.   University of Wyoming is working on a project, determining the relationship between development pattern and the costs of public services in the Mountain West as part of Hatch Project. Local fiscal impacts pertaining to exurban development are being examined. These are important in the face of limited local service provision budgets. Pilot studies that should be of use to local county officials and planners have been conducted.  GIS technology and economic models have provided insights as to why dispersed residential development brings greater cost per unit tax revenue when law enforcement resources are used to achieve public safety. These results are being shared with county planning groups.  A manuscript has submitted and additional data is to be analyzed.  An AFRI Grant Proposal has been submitted, “Determining the Relationship between Development Pattern and the Costs of Public Services.”  Amount requested is $466,689.  A manuscript is in review. University of Georgia commenced research project on microeconomics of household food waste (with Travis Smith) food waste has major implications for misallocation of land and water resources (one paper accepted at Journal of Food Products and Marketing; another is in revise and resubmit American Journal of Agricultural Economics)

Publications

Ando, A.W., A. Howlader, and M. Mallory. 2018. “Diversifying to reduce conservation outcome uncertainty in multiple environmental objectives.” Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. Forthcoming.   Ando, A.W. and N. Netusil. 2018. “Valuing the benefits of green stormwater infrastructure.” Oxford Encyclopedia of Water Resources Management and Policy. Forthcoming.   Ando, A.W. and C. Langpap. 2018. “The economics of species conservation.” Annual Review of Resource Economics. Forthcoming.   Bastian, C. T., C. M. Keske, D. M. McLeod, and D. L. Hoag. 2017. “Landowner and Land Trust Agent Preferences for Conservation Easements: Implications for Sustainable Land Uses and Landscapes,” Landscape and Urban Planning. 157:1-13. Lead article.   Bauer, D.M., Bell, K.P., Nelson, E.J. and A.J.K. Calhoun. 2017. “Managing small natural features: a synthesis of emergent economic issues and opportunities.” Biological Conservation 211:Part B:80-87, DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2017.01.001.   Behrer, A. Patrick*, Dale T. Manning, and Andrew Seidl. 2017. “The Impact of Institutional and Land Use Change on Local Incomes in Chilean Patagonia.” Journal of Development Studies. Forthcoming   Calhoun AJK, Mushet DM, Bell KP, Boix D, Fitzsimons JA, Isselin-Nondedeu F.  2017. “Temporary wetlands:  challenges and solutions for protecting a "disappearing" ecosystem.” Biological Conservation 211 (Part B):3-11, DOI:10.1016/j.biocon.2016.11.024.   Calvin, K., K. Fisher-Vanden, 2017. “Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: The role of Integrated Assessment Models.” Environmental Research Letters, 12:115004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa843c.   Davlasheridze, M., K. Fisher-Vanden, A. Klaiber, 2017. “The Effects of Adaptation Measures on Hurricane Induced Property Losses,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 81:93-114.   Dundas, S. J., R. H. von Haefen, and C. Mansfield. 2018. “Recreation Costs of Endangered Species Protection: Evidence from Cape Hatteras National Seashore,” Marine Resource Economics 33:1:1-25.   Dundas, S. J. 2017. “Benefits and Ancillary Costs of Natural Infrastructure: Evidence from the New Jersey Coast.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 85:62-80.   Ehrlich*, O., X. Bi, T. Borisova, S. Larkin. 2017. “A Latent Class Analysis of Public Attitudes toward Water Resources with Implications for Recreational Demand.” Ecosystem Services, 28:A:124-132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.10.019   Evans, K.S., Noblet, C.L., Fox, E., Bell, K.P., and A. Kaminski. 2017. “Public acceptance of coastal zone management efforts: The role of citizen preferences in the allocation of funds,” Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 46:2: 268-295, DOI: 10.1017/age.2017.9   Favero, A., Mendelsohn, R. and Sohngen, B., 2017. “Using forests for climate mitigation: sequester carbon or produce woody biomass?” Climatic Change. 144:2:195-206.   Fortmann, L., Sohngen, B. and Southgate, D., 2017. “Assessing the Role of Group Heterogeneity in Community Forest Concessions in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve.” Land Economics. 93:3:503-526.   Gopalakrishnan, S., Landry, C.E. and Smith, M.D., 2017. “Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Environments: Modeling Challenges for Resource and Environmental Economists.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rex020">https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rex020</a>   Gopalakrishnan, S., McNamara, D., Smith, M.D. and Murray, A.B., 2017. “Decentralized management hinders coastal climate adaptation: the spatial-dynamics of beach nourishment.” Environmental and Resource Economics, 67:4:761-787.   Haab, Timothy, and John Whitehead. 2017. “What do Environmental Economists Think? 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Leahy. 2017. “Changing course: Comparing emerging watershed institutions in river restoration contexts.” Society & Natural Resources. 30:6:765-781, DOI:10.1080/08941920.2016.1239292.   Johnson, E.S., Bell, K.P., and J.E. Leahy. 2018. “Disamenity to amenity: spatial and temporal patterns of social response to river restoration progress.” Landscape and Urban Planning. 169: 208-219, DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.09.008.   Jones Ritten, C., C. T. Bastian, J. F. Shogren, T. Panchalingam, M. Ehmke, and G. Parkhurst.  2017. “Understanding Pollinator Habitat Conservation Under the Current Policy Using Economic Experiments,” Land. 6:57(2017):2-13.  Available online August 24.  doi:10.3390/land6030057.   Kaminski, A., Bell, K.P., Noblet, C.L. and K.S. Evans. 2017. “An Economic Analysis of Coastal Beach Safety Information-Seeking Behavior.” Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. 46:2:365-387, DOI: 10.1017/age.2017.17   Keiser, D.A., and N.Z. Muller. 2017. “Air and Water: Integrated Assessment Models for Multiple Media.” Annual Review of Resource Economics. 9:1:165-184.   Kim, J.B., E. Monier, B. Sohngen, G. Pitts, R. Drapek, J. McFarland, S. Ohrel, and J. Cole, 2017. “Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios.” Environmental Research Letters. 12:4:045001   Klaiber, HA, Abbott, JK and Smith, VK.  2017. “Some Like it (Less) Hot:  Joint Valuation of the Urban Heat Island and Cooling Vegetation in an Arid City.”  Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resoure Economists.  4:1053-1079.   Klaiber, A.H., Gopalakrishnan, S. and Hasan, S. 2017. “Missing the forest for the trees: balancing shale exploration and conservation goals through policy.” Conservation Letters. 10:1:153-159.   Klaiber, HA, Salhofer, K and Thompson, SR. 2017. “Capitalisation of the SPS into Farmland Rental Rates under the 2013 CAP Reform.”  Journal fo Agricultural Economics.  68:710-726.   Landry, C.E. 2017. “Experimental Methods in Economic Valuation” Chapter 10 in A Primer on Non-Market Valuation, 2nd Edition, Champ, P., K. Boyle, and T. Brown (Eds), Springer: New York, NY.   Li, J. and C.E. Landry. 2018. “Flood Risk, Local Hazard Mitigation, and the Community Rating System of NFIP” forthcoming Land Economics.   Landry, C.E., M. Ahmadiani, and G. Colson. 2017. “Structural Empirical Analysis of Decisions under Natural Hazard Risk” in The Future of Risk Management, University of Pennsylvania Press: Philadelphia, PA.   Lauer, Stephen, Matthew Sanderson, Dale Manning, Jordan Suter, Aaron Hrozencik, Bridget Guerrero, Karina Schoengold, and Bill Golden. “Values and Groundwater Management in the Ogallala Aquifer Region.”  Journal of Soil and Water Conservation.  Forthcoming.   Lieske S., R. Coupal and D. McLeod. “Political jurisdiction, reputation and urban form: a more complete specification of public service costs.” Submitted to Papers in Regional Science. In Review September 2017.   Maas, Alexander*, Christopher G. Goemans, Dale T. Manning, Stephan Kroll, Mazdak Arabi and Mariana Rodriguez-McGoffina. 2017. “Evaluating the Effect of Conservation Motivations on Residential Water Demand.” Journal of Environmental Management 196:July:394-401.   Maas, Alexander S.*, Christopher G. Goemans, Dale T. Manning, Stephan Kroll, Thomas C. Brown.  2017. “Dilemmas, Coordination and Defection: How Uncertain Tipping Points Induce Common Pool Resource Destruction.” Games and Economic Behavior. 104:760-774.   Maas, Alexander*, Dale T. Manning, Christopher Goemans, and Andre Dozier*. 2017. “Water Storage in a Changing Environment: The Impact of Allocation Institutions on Value.” Water Resources Research. 53:1:672-687.   Manning, Dale T., Christopher Goemans, and Alexander Maas*. 2017. “Producer Responses to Surface Water Availability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation.” Land Economics. 93:4:631-653.   Manning, Dale T., Salvador Lurbé*, Louise H. Comas, Thomas J. Trout, Nora Flynn, and Steven J. Fonte.  2018. “Economic Viability of Deficit Irrigation in the Western US.” Agricultural Water Management. 196:114-123.   Markowski-Lindsay, M., Catanzaro, P., Bell, K.P., Kittredge, D., Leahy, J., Butler, B., Markowitz, E., Milman, A., Zimmerer, R., Allred, S. and M. Sisock. 2017. “Estate planning as a forest stewardship tool: A study of family land ownerships in the northeastern US.” Forest Policy and Economics. 83:36-44, DOI:10.1016/j.forpol.2017.06.004.   Mei, Y., Hite, D. and Sohngen, B., 2017. “Demand for urban tree cover: A two-stage hedonic price analysis in California.” Forest Policy and Economics. 83:29-35.   Mei, Y., Sohngen, B. and Babb, T., 2018. “Valuing urban wetland quality with hedonic price model.” Ecological Indicators. 84:535-545.   Miteva DA, Kramer RA, Brown ZS, Smith MD. 2017. “Spatial Patterns of Market Participation and Resource Extraction: Fuelwood Collection in Northern Uganda.” American Journal of Agricultrural Economics [Internet]. 2017;0(0):1–19. Available from: <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/ajae/aax027">https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/ajae/aax027</a>   Monger, Randall*, Jordan F. Suter, Dale T. Manning, and Joel P. Schneekloth. 2018. “Retiring Land to Save Water: Participation in Colorado's Republican River Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program.” Land Economics 94:1:36-51.   Mueller, Julie M., Lima, Ryan, E., and Springer Abraham E. 2017. “Can Environmental Attributes Influence Protected Area Designation? A Case Study Valuing Preferences for Springs in Grand Canyon National Park.” Land Use Policy. 60:196-205.   Oakleaf JR, Matsumoto M, Kennedy C, Baumgarten L, Miteva DA, Sochi K, Kiesecker J.  2017.  “LegalGEO: Conservation Tool to Guide the Siting of Legal Reserves under the Brazilian Forest Code.” Applied Geography. 86, 53e65. Available here: <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622816306658"> http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622816306658</a>   Robinson BE, Masuda Y, Kelly A, Holldand M, Bedford C, Childress M, Fletschner D, Game E, Ginsburg C, Hilhorst T, Lawry S, Miteva DA, Musengezi J, Naughton L, Nolte C, Sunderlin W, Veit P.  2017. “Incorporating land tenure security into conservation.” Conservation Letters. (June 2017):1–12. Available here: <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12383/full">http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12383/full</a>   Sills E, Sassi C de, Jagger PA, Lawlor K, Miteva DA, Pattanayak SK, et al.  2017. “Building the evidence base for REDD+: Study design and methods for evaluating the impacts of conservation interventions on local well-being.” Global Environmental Change [Internet]. 2017;43:March:148–60. Available from: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.002">http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.002</a>   Steinman, AD BJ Cardinale, WR.Munns,Jr ME Ogdahl, JD Allan; T Angadie; S Bartlett; KBrauman; M Byappanahallih; M Dossi; D Dupont; A Johnsk; D Kashian; F Lupi; P McIntyre; T Miller; M Moore; RL Muenich; RPoudel; J Pricer; B Provencher A Reat; J Read S Renzetti; B Sohngen; and E Washburn. 2017. “Ecosystem services in the Great Lakes.” Journal of Great Lakes Research. 43:3:161-168. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2017.02.004   Towe, C, Klaiber, HA and Wrenn, D.  2017. “Not My Problem: Growth Spillovers from Uncoordinated Land Use Policy.”  Land Use Policy.  67:679-689.   van Berkel, D.B., Rayfield, B., Martinuzzi, S., Lechowicz, M.J., White, E., Bell, K.P., Colocousis, C.R., Kovacs, K.F., Morzillo, A.T., Munroe, D.K., Parmentier, B., Radeloff, V.C., and B.J. McGill. 2017. “Recognizing the ‘sparsely settled forest’: Multi-decade socioecological change dynamics and community exemplars.” Landscape and Urban Planning. DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.10.009.   Winter, J. M., B. Beckage, G. Bucini, R. M. Horton, and P. J. Clemins. 2016. “Development and evaluation of high-resolution climate simulations over the mountainous northeastern United States.” Journal of Hydrometeorology. 17:3:881-89.   Wrenn, DH, Klaiber, HA and Newburn, DA.  2017. “Confronting Price Endogeneity in a Duration Model of Residential Subdivision Development.”  Journal of Applied Econometrics.  32:661-682.    Wolf*, D and Klaiber, HA.  2017.  “Bloom and Bust: Toxic Algae’s Impact on Nearby Property Values.”  Ecological Economics.  135:209-221.   Wolf*, D, Georgic*, W and Klaiber, HA. 2017.  “Reeling in the Damages: Harmful Algal Blooms’ Impact on Lake Erie's Recreational Fishing Industry. Journal of Environmental Management. 199:148-157.   Yoder, Jonathan, Jennifer Adam, Michael Brady, Joseph Cook, Stephen Katz, Shane Johnston, Keyvan Malek, John McMillan, and Qingqing Yang. 2017. “<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1752-1688.12507/full">Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Water Re-</a> <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1752-1688.12507/full">source Management: Accounting for interdependence in the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan</a>.” Journal of the American Water Resources Association 53:2:456-477. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12507.   Papers, Presentations, and Reports Ahmadiani, M and C.E. Landry. 2017. “Economic Value of Multi-peril Coastal Hazard Insurance” Working Paper University of Georgia: Athens, GA; SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2907033   Arbogast1, Alan F., Brad Garmon2, Jonathan Jarosz3, Alek Kreiger4, Sarah Nicholls1, Clayton Queen1, Robert B. Richardson1, Elaine Sterrett Isely5. 2018. Valuing Michigan’s Coastal Dunes: GIS Information and Economic Data to Support Management Partnerships. Report submitted to the Michigan Coastal Zone Management Program, Office of the Great Lakes, Michigan Department of Environmental Quality.  (1Michigan State University, 2Michigan Environmental Council, 3Heart of the Lakes, 4Ducks Unlimited, 5West Michigan Environmental Action Council)   Borisova, Tatiana, Xiang Bi, Alan Hodges and Stephen Holland. 2017. Is the Tide is Changing? Accessing Costs and Benefits of Dam Removal and River Restoration: a Case Study in Florida. Selected paper, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, Mobile, AL, Feb 4-7, 2017. Available at <a href="http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/252833/2/Borisova-et-al-SAEA-2017.pdf">http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/252833/2/Borisova-et-al-SAEA-2017.pdf</a>   Borisova, Tatiana, Xiang Bi, Alan Hodges, and Stephen Holand. Paper. Economic Importance and Public Preferences for Water Resource Management of the Ocklawaha River. University of Florida Water Institute Symposium, Gainesville, FL. Feb 6-7. 2018.   Griscom B, Adams J, Ellis P, Houghton RA, Lomax G, Miteva DA, Schlesinger WH, Shoch D,  Woodbury P, Zganjar C, Blackman A, Campari J, Conant RT, Delgado C, Elias P, Hamsik M,  Kiesecker J, Landis E, Polasky S, Putz FE, Sanderman J,  Siikamäki J, Silvius M, Wollenberg, L,  Fargione J. 2017. Natural pathways to climate mitigation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114:44:11645-11650. Available here: <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/44/11645.full">http://www.pnas.org/content/114/44/11645.full</a>   Kriesel, W.,  C.E. Landry, and M. Ahmadiani. 2017. “Are Some Natural Amenities as Good as Gold?  Evidence from Coastal Real Estate and Marshlands” Working Paper University of Georgia: Athens, GA, SSRN: <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract_id=2885909">https://ssrn.com/abstract_id=2885909</a>.   Laird, H., C.E. Landry, S. Shonkwiler, and D. Petrolia. 2017. “Riders on the Storm: Hazard Insurance and Mitigation” Working Paper University of Georgia: Athens, GA; SSRN: <a href="http://ssrn.com/abstract=2957192">http://ssrn.com/abstract=2957192</a> Landry, C.E. presentation on risk management, Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography and the Resilience Collaborative, Old Dominion University: Norfolk, VA   Landry, C.E. presentation on risk management, American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting: Chicago, IL   Landry, C.E. presentation on risk management, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kentucky: Lexington, KY   Landry, C.E. presentation on risk management, SEC Academic Conference, The Future of Water: Regional Collaboration on Shared Climate, Coastlines, and Watersheds: Starkville, MS   Landry, C.E. and J.C. Whitehead. 2017. “Estimating Willingness to Pay with Referendum Follow-up Multiple-Bounded Payment Cards” Working Paper University of Georgia: Athens, GA.   Landry, C.E. and T. Allen. 2017. “Hedonic Property Prices and Coastal Beach Width” Working Paper University of Georgia: Athens, GA; SSRN: <a href="http://ssrn.com/abstract=2474276">http://ssrn.com/abstract=2474276</a>   Landry, C.E., J.S. Shonkwiler, and J.C. Whitehead. 2017. “Economic Values of Coastal Erosion Management: Joint Estimation of Use and Passive Use Values with Recreation Demand and Contingent Valuation Data” Working Paper University of Georgia: Athens, GA.   Miao H., Trandafir, S., Uchida, E., Price, M., 2018. "The Effect of Informational Nudges to Promote Voluntary Behavior to Reduce Nonpoint Source Pollution: A Randomized Controlled Trial in the Field",  Paper presented at the 6th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists (WCERE), Gothenburg, Sweden.   Miao H., Trandafir, S., Uchida, E., Price, M., 2017.  "The Effect of Informational Nudges to Promote Voluntary Behavior to Reduce Nonpoint Source Pollution: A Randomized Controlled Trial in the Field", Paper presented at the Conference on Behavioral and Experimental Agri-Environmental Research: Methodological Advancements and Applications to Policy (CBEAR_MAAP), Shepherdstown, West Virginia.   Miao H., Trandafir, S., Uchida, E., Price, M., 2017.  "The Effect of Informational Nudges to Promote Voluntary Behavior to Reduce Nonpoint Source Pollution: A Randomized Controlled Trial in the Field", Paper presented at the 19th BIOECON conference, Tilburg University, the Netherlands.   Padowski, Julie C., Michael P. Brady, Eric Jessup, Qingqing Yang, Jonathan K. Yoder. 2016. Coordinating Mitigation Strategies for Meeting In-Stream Flow Requirements in the Skagit River Basin, WA. American Geophysical Union Conference, Dec 12-16, San Francisco, CA.   Qianyan Wu(g), Xiang Bi, Tatiana Borisova, and Kelly Grogran. Valuing the Recreation Benefits of Springs in North Central Florida. Spring Protection Forum, Gainesville, FL., U.S. Feb 15, 2018.   Richardson, Robert B. 2017. “Characterizing ecosystem services of freshwater coastal dunes.” Presented at the biennial meeting of the U.S. Society for Ecological Economics, Saint Paul, Minnesota, July 27, 2017.   Yoder, Jonathan. 2017. Economic Assessment of Integrated Water Resource Management. The Yakima Basin Integrated Plan. October 18. Invited Lecture, Oregon State University, Corvallis.

Impact Statements

University of Georgia-Research Grant: US Forest Service “Estimating Recreation Access Value to National Forest Wilderness,” Joint Venture with Michael Bowker ($26,000) University of Georgia-Research Grant: National Science Foundation “Climate Change Adaptation in a Coupled Geomorphic-Economic Coastal System,” with Dylan McNamara (PI), Sathya Gopalakrishnan, Eric Hutton, Andrew Keeler, Laura Moore, Brad Murray, Martin Smith ($1,500,000)

Date of Annual Report: 05/08/2019

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 02/20/2019 - 02/22/2019
Period the Report Covers: 03/01/2018 - 02/28/2019

Participants

Participants:
Ando, Amy-University of Illinois
Bayham, Jude-Colorado State University
Bell, Kathleen-University of Maine
Burkhardt, Jesse-Colorado State University
Dundas, Steven-Oregon State University
Englin, Jeffrey-Arizona State University
Gramig, Ben-UIUC, Purdue
Hoehn, John-Michigan State University
Interis, Matthew-Mississippi State University
Jakus, Paul-Utah State
Kelsoe, Caroline-Mississippi State University
Kolstoe, Sonja-Salisbury University
Landry, Craig-University of Georgia
Lang, Corey-University of Rhode Island
Lewis, Lynne-Bates College
Li, Liqing-University of Illinois
Lohr, Luanne-U.S. Forest Service
Lupi, Frank-Michigan State University
Manning, Dale-Colorado State University
McLeod, Donald-University of Wyoming
Mieno, Taro-University of Nebraska
Moeltner, Klaus-Virginia Tech
Nelson, Nanette-University of Montana
Netusil, Noelwah-Reed College
Parthum, Bryan-University of Illinois
Parton, Lee-Boise State University
Penn, Jerrod-Louisiana State University
Rollins, Kim-University of Nevada, Reno
Rouhi Rad, Mani-Colorado State University
Shr, Yau-Huo (Jimmy)-Iowa State University
Singh, Shweta-Purdue University
Sohngen, Brent-Ohio State University
Uz, Dilek-University of Nevada, Reno
VanCeylon, Jarron-University of Rhode Island
Vander Naald, Brian-Drake University
von Haefen, Roger-North Carolina State University
White, Ken-Utah State University
Wilson, Kyle-University of Oregon
Yun, Seong Do-Mississippi State University

Brief Summary of Minutes

Brief summary of minutes of annual meeting:

The business meeting portion of the workshop included Amy Ando, Kathleen Bell, Steven Dundas, Ben Gramig, Matt Interis, Sonja Kolstoe, Craig Landry, Lynne Lewis, Frank Lupi, Dale Manning, Don McLeod, Klaus Moeltner, Jerrod Penn, Kim Rollins, Brent Sohngen, Brian Vander Naald, Roger von Haefen, Ken White, Seong Yun.

First order of business was to determine a new Secretary, whose term begins in 2020, and who follows a three-year cycle continuing on to Vice-President and President in the two subsequent years. Don McLeod nominated Steven Dundas and Amy Ando seconded. Steven agreed to stand. There were no additional nominations and Steven was installed by unanimous vote.

Don noted his appreciation for the new presentation format this year in which there was 15 minutes of general discussion and questions for any presenter at the end of each session. Others generally agreed.

Ken White, the new USDA liaison for the project, will notify the group of any upcoming deadlines.

Current Vice-President Craig Landry proposed Athens, GA as the site of the 2020 meeting and others seemed agreeable to this suggestion.

Amy Ando expressed she’d like the project members & friends to do a better job of communicating with each other throughout the year between meetings. She volunteered to set up a project Slack channel with Bryan Parthum (her student). Slack is a business sharing and collaboration application; the members were generally supportive of this idea on a trial.

At the conclusion of this meeting, Dale Manning concludes his three-year officer rotation (thank you, Dale!), Craig Landry rotates from Vice-President to President, Matt Interis rotates from Secretary to Vice-President, and Steven Dundas begins his term as Secretary.

Accomplishments

Accomplishments: Colorado State: We have begun an evaluation of the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program in Kansas.  This includes working papers on spatial spillovers and the valuation of conserved groundwater.  We have used USDA field level crop insurance data, merged with groundwater use at wells in KS, NE, and CO to examine the impact of crop insurance price on groundwater use.  We are currently finishing a manuscript for this work and examining how GW availability affects insurance demand and how insurance and groundwater restrictions interact. With colleagues at the Univ of Idaho, we have also published work on the complementarity between electricity and water at the household level.  This has important implications for the management of water across sectors in arid regions. We also examined the impact of learning on incentives to temporarily ban fracking in local communities. Finally, with collaborators at UN-R, we have begun to develop and link models of surface water flows under climate change with economic models of water value.  We are using this framework to examine the costs and benefits of alternative water allocation institutions in adapting to these changing flows. Colorado State: We have completed a draft of a manuscript that proposes a stated preference method for linking a valuation function to a model of a natural system in order to examine the impacts of USDA policy on natural capital values. We apply this to the valuation of the CREP program in KS and its impact on market and non-market groundwater values. Colorado State: In collaboration with others at the Univ of NE, we have completed a linked hydro-economic model of Finney County in Kansas.  This model demonstrates novel methods to link agronomic, hydrologic and economic models for policy evaluation. North Carolina State: Received grant: von Haefen, Roger H. (PI) “Estimating the Benefits of Stream Water Quality Improvements in Urbanizing Watersheds: An Ecological Production Function Approach,” US EPA, $800,000, 2015-2020. Oregon State: Dundas and collaborators (incl. w4133 member Roger von Haefen) published a paper that uses econometric methods to estimate non-market recreation costs of a land-use policy to protect coastal biodiversity. Results suggest the economic costs of the policy are relatively modest, ranging from $403,000 to $2.07 million annually and provide general support for the National Park Service's recently implemented off-road vehicle management plan in Cape Hatteras National Seashore. Lewis and a collaborator published a paper that develops an auction mechanism to implement the optimal provision of ecosystem services under climate change. The auction mechanism can be used as a subsidy for conservation (such as a payment-for-ecosystem services), or as a tax on using land. Lewis, Dundas and Kling developed a new choice experiment survey instrument to assess the non-market values of Pacific Northwest residents on restoration of threatened Oregon Coast Coho salmon runs. Kling and Dundas developed a new choice experiment survey instrument to assess the non-market values of Pacific Northwest residents on restoration activities focused on Oregon beaches. Kling published a paper that evaluate a selection of "myths", or popular conceptions about the role of uncertainty in decision models used in environmental and resource economics. Where conventional wisdom falls short, we argue practitioners should incorporate new advances in the economic uncertainty into their analysis. University of Florida: Silver Springs Alliance and Florida Defenders of the Environment,  environmental groups dedicated to protecting the springs and restore the Ocklawaha River, have cited our study on the importance of recreation values provided by the Ocklawaha River. Presented findings on Valuing the Recreation Benefits of Springs in North Central Florida. Santa Fe River Springs Protection Forum in High Springs, Florida (2018 Feb). Produced 4 extension documents summarizing water resource management issues in Florida University of Georgia: In support of a National Science Foundation-Couple Human & Natural Systems project, we conducted a pilot survey of coastal residents in Glynn County, Georgia. We tested an experimental design that permits assessment of risk preferences with salient (i.e. monetary) incentives, within the context of a mail or internet survey. Utilizing historical weather data, we present mail survey respondents with prior information about rainfall and temperature probabilities. We then allow them to “gamble” their $5 incentive payment on one of four possible weather outcomes, each choice is designed to bracket a range or risk preference parameters (via Constant Relative Risk Aversion formulation of Expected Utility). Responses permit inference on risk tolerance in the context of weather, which is relevant for the survey subject matter – flood risk and climate change. Provision of prior information and assessing posterior beliefs (that influenced weather lottery choice), allows for analysis Bayesian updating of weather beliefs in the context of location choice, insurance purchase, and perhaps other aspects of coastal resiliency. The survey also explores additional elements of individual risk perception; we utilize novel survey instruments to assess subjective perceptions of risk (likelihood of hurricane strike) and outcome (conditional damage to structure in hurricane). These data will play a prominent role in current PhD students dissertation on structural models of choice under risk. University of Georgia: Received grant, Georgia Department of Natural Resources & National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration “Economic Analysis of Green Infrastructure to Enhance Resiliency”, application to Liberty County, Georgia, $65,570, 2018-2020 University of Georgia: Received grant, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration “Hidden Infrastructure: Onsite Wastewater Disposal and Sea-level Rise”, application to Bryan County, Georgia, $16,928, 2-10-2019 University of Georgia: Received grant, Bureau of Land Management & United States Geological Survey “Benefit-cost Analysis for the Threatened and Endangered Species Program of the Bureau of Land Management”, $49,998, 2018-2019 University of Illinois-Champaign: Ando completed a manuscript to inform management of flood hazards and submitted it for review. She uses a contingent valuation survey to evaluate homeowner willingness to pay for a novel pre-flood agreement such that the homeowner pre-commits to relocating if a flood damages their home by more than 50% of its value, in exchange for which they gain an expedited and streamlined buyout process with payment equal to the full market value of their home. The study finds that nearly all homeowners would gain value from being able to enter into such a contract. University of Illinois-Champaign: Ando worked with coauthors to complete and publish a paper that sets forth principles for optimal spatial targeting of conservation investment to reduce outcome risk with the smallest possible reduction in the expected level of ecological benefits when the decision maker is interested in multiple distinct environmental targets. University of Illinois-Champaign: Ando worked with coauthors to complete and publish a paper that shows the kinds of conservation problems for which spatial portfolio theory analysis can be most useful. University of Illinois-Champaign: Gramig worked throughout 2017 and 2017 with multi-state (some are members of NC-1190) collaborators in California, Iowa, Indiana, and Maine to review the recent literature on motivations and barriers to adoption of conservation practices on agricultural land in the US since 1980. A high-level initial analysis has been submitted for expedited review and five additional manuscripts are under development examining specific practices, actual adoption versus willingness-to-adopt and undertaking a statistical meta-analysis of the literature. University of Illinois-Champaign: Gramig, along with W-4133 member Seong Do Yun at Mississippi State University began a cooperative agreement with NRCS and ERS economists to use econometric methods to measure the on-farm yield and cost of production effects of adopting NRCS conservation practices using public and private data sources. This work also partners with the Illinois Corn Growers Association’s Precision Conservation Management program led Dr. Laura Gentry that has partial support from the USDA Regional Conservation Partnership Program. University of Illinois-Champaign: Ando has collaborated with researchers in Missouri to identify key attributes of water quality improvements in the Corn Belt that should be valued. She has worked with a graduate student to refine a choice-experiment survey to estimate how an individual’s WTP for water quality improvements in a watershed in Illinois is affected by their proximity to the area where landscape changes are implemented to accomplish the change and by whether they are in rural or urban parts of the watershed. University of Illinois-Champaign: Gramig is conducting a synergistic valuation study to measure the public’s preferences for different mechanisms (point source nutrient abatement versus various approaches to non-point source pollution reduction) to achieve state Nutrient Loss Reduction Strategies in force throughout the Corn Belt region. Ando and Gramig have coordinated their WTP work to maximize insights from the resulting valuation estimates. University of Illinois-Champaign: Gramig completed a study through Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant with a collaborator at Purdue University of the value of recreation fishing in Southern Lake Michigan along the shores in IL and IN. This work partnered with the Illinois Natural History Survey and the Indiana Department of Natural Resources to collect data using an angler intercept survey. University of Illinois-Champaign: Ando collaborated with W4133 affiliate Noelwah Netusil at Reed College to write a review of the literature estimating the values of green infrastructure. University of Illinois-Champaign: A team of researchers from W4133 partner universities UIUC and Oregon State, Amy Ando and Christian Langpap, wrote an analytical review of research on the economics of species conservation. They analyzed research on the values of species conservation and optimal policy design for species conservation. University of Illinois-Champaign: grant received, Gramig (PI), B.M., S.D. Yun, G.S. Schnitkey and L.F. Gentry. “On-farm Benefits and Costs of Conservation Practices and Systems.” USDA-NRCS Cooperative Ecosystems Study Unit, 2018-2020, $462,403. University of Illinois-Champaign: grant received, X Cai (PI), R Cusick, BM Gramig, G McIsaac, V Singh. “INFEWS/T1: Advancing FEW System Resilience in the Corn Belt by Integrated Technology-Environment-Economics Modeling of Nutrient Cycling.” NSF-Innovations at the Nexus of Food-Energy-Water Systems (INFEWS), 2017-2021, $2.43 million University of Maine: Economists and social scientists from University of Maine, University of Massachusetts, Cornell University, and University Vermont conducted economic analyses to better understand the priorities and decision-making of private forest landowners in the Northeast as they negotiate changing forest product markets, land management policies, regional economies, demographics, and environmental conditions. Research focused on legacy planning indicated that the majority of landowners in our empirical sample believe controlling the future use of their land is important and are open to keeping their parcel forested and intact (i.e., not subdivided); varying legacy goals were associated with distinct behaviors and future intentions to designate or restrict the future use of their land (Markowski et al. 2018). Use of formal estate planning and conservation tools and participation in current-use taxation programs by family forest owners varies throughout the Northeast region; significant state and regional fixed effects suggest landscape context factors beyond owner and parcel characteristics influence spatial patterns in tool adoption and program participation (Bell et al. 2018). University of Maine: To improve understanding of land management decisions and conservation opportunities on private lands in these landscapes, economists from University of Maine and Clark University developed a landowner typology that accounts for heterogeneity among landowners and investigated its usefulness in explaining differences in individual private landowners’ stated intentions to implement diverse land management actions. Cluster analysis based on measures of place attachment values, stewardship beliefs, and forest production objectives revealed four distinct landowner classes that, in turn, increased the explanatory power of our models of management intentions. Our findings support consideration of heterogeneity beyond production objectives to advance understanding of landowner decision-making and to improve the design and performance of conservation programs (Balukas, Bell, and Bauer, 2019). University of Rhode Island: We conducted a non-market valuation survey to gauge the public preference and perception of wind power using as a case study the first wind farm established within the United States, near the cost of Block Island, Rhode Island. Our survey consisted of three parts. In the first part, we asked respondents questions about the characteristics of their trip(s) to Block Island. The second part of our survey included questions about knowledge and perceptions of the wind farm off of Block Island shores. This section also included Willingness to Pay questions for fishing, boating, sightseeing, beach, and bird and whale watching sites with and without a view of the turbines or without them. In the third and final section of the survey, we ask respondents to provide some basic demographic details such as age, household income and educational qualification. We also capture respondents' environmental attitudes by incorporating questions from the New Environmental Paradigm (NEP) (Dunlap and Liere 1978; Dunlap et al. 2000). We disseminated our survey in August 2018 through the Qualtrics platform to residents 18 years of age and above who reside in the states of California, Connecticut, Florida, New Jersey, New York, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania or Rhode Island. A total of 263 respondents completed the survey. Data from this survey is currently in the final stages of analysis and a report is expected to be finalized and submitted for publication within the next few months. University of Rhode Island: A survey was designed to understand the impact of positive message framing on Willingness To Pay a premium for organic products among college students. The choice of college students for the sample is motivated by the fact that this is the demographic that will soon have households of their own and can potentially be the chief consumers of organic products. The team that developed the survey consisted of one faculty, one PhD candidate and three undergraduate students at URI. Two focus groups with 15 participants have been conducted and the team is now in the process of analyzing the feedback collected in these two sessions and refining or redesigning the survey. The survey will be administered- using Qualtrics, professional survey platform- to the URI undergraduate body of students. University of Rhode Island: Used housing market data to examine aggregate responses to additional local government provision of open space. I also used housing market data to examine distributional impacts of brownfield remediation. During this reporting period, I wrote survey instruments for a 2018 statewide exit poll and three municipal exit polls. These data will help inform voter decision models and voter valuation of the environment. University of Rhode Island: We conducted two studies related to China’s forest policies. In one study, we examine the role of risk and time preferences in how forest owners respond to forest certification. Using household survey data from Fujian Province, we test hypotheses from a two-period harvest model derived from prospect theory. This study was published in Land Economics. In another study, we evaluate the impact of a large-scale payments for environmental services (PES) program in rural China on forest structure. We couple satellite images detecting forest cover change for four different types of forests with county-level data on program participation. This study was published in Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy. University of Rhode Island: “Aversion to environmental risk in stated preference: Implications for benefit transfer and scope response” (with Ben Blachly). The goal of this study is to learn about the relationship between environmental risk preferences and scale as it applies to stated preference research. This study builds on the limited literature on environmental risk preferences and makes three key contributions. First, we perform an explicit test of whether environmental risk aversion increases with scale. This is a well-known result in the financial domain, and some research suggests that a similar relationship exists in an environmental setting. Second, we compare the ability of different approaches to modelling the risk preference-scale relationship to reduce between-scale transfer errors. Preferences for environmental goods tend to be dependent on the scale at which they are elicited, so errors are likely when transferring values between scales. Finally, we explore how understanding the relationship between environmental risk preferences and scale can refine our interpretation of scope response. Scope response, the idea that willingness to pay should increase with the amount of good on offer, has evolved into a major test of theoretical consistency. Choice experiments, which are constructed to exhibit built-in (internal, or within-sample) scope response, have been subjected to few external (between-sample) tests of scope. We subject a choice experiment to an external scope test and explore risk aversion as a determinant of the degree of scope response. University of Rhode Island: “Decision support modeling for multi-attribute water quality in the Narragansett Bay watershed” (with Robert Griffin). In this study, we develop an integrated assessment model for spatially simulating water quality changes and social welfare effects for recreational use and non-use as a function of common point and non-point source pollution management interventions. This extends prior modeling by incorporating a broader suite of water quality characteristics beyond phosphorus and nitrogen that are known to affect water quality. Beyond demonstrating the feasibility of such a model, we show the implications of omitting water quality factors on model estimates and find that in some cases a smaller set of water quality attributes may not significantly impact estimates of willingness to pay. We derive these lessons in a case study of Narragansett Bay, a coastal estuary that has recently experienced significant changes in nutrient loading due to a combination of point and non-point source changes and find that recent wastewater treatment upgrades are providing millions in annual value to adjacent residents. University of Tennessee: Researchers identified optimal county-level targets for payments for forest carbon sequestrations with a total conservation budget optimally distributed among the counties and their resulting changes in forest carbon and economic benefits. University of Wyoming: Received grant “Investigating Potential Impacts of Non-Attainment Risk on Conservation Exchange Outcomes.” Hansen, K. (PI), Co-PIs: C. Jones-Ritten, C. Bastian, A. Nagler.  Amount Requested: $74,317.  Submitted 9/30/2015.  Duration of Project: January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2018. Research completed regarding habitat conservation markets using experimental economics methods. Economic Experiments conducted and analysis completed.  Presentation made at Center for Behavioral, and Experimental Agroenvironmental Research Conference.  Paper submitted to Environmental and Resource Economics.  This paper has now been accepted and is in press for publication in 2019 University of Wyoming: “Incentivizing Open Spaces in Wyoming to Promote Pollinator Habitat: Applying Agglomeration Bonuses to Unite Fragmented Habitat.” Milestones: Research completed regarding pollinator habitat policy design using experimental economics methods. Utah State University: A major study on the economic effects of landscape-scale National Monuments, specifically the Grand Staircase-Escalante NM (GSENM) of southern Utah, was completed, although research for other national monuments remains ongoing. The National Monuments work is a discrete, non-marginal contribution to our understanding of a major public lands management policy that has heretofore received little attention by economists (despite heated political debate). A review of economic benefit and cost studies of the BLM’s wildhorse and burro (WHB) program was also completed and published. Virginia Tech: Developed a new econometric approach to process meta-data on water quality and wetland conservation, as used by the EPA for decision-making. This mode satisfies important theoretical and practical considerations, such as sensitivity to scope (higher willingness to pay (WTP) for better quality), and adding-up (total WTP for the change is not sensitive to the number of increments for implementation.) I expect this model to see widespread use by the EPA and other agencies in the context of benefit-cost and environmental impact analysis. I applied this model to a meta-dataset of willingness-to-pay for water quality improvements and shared results with agencies, peers, and practitioners at two conferences in 2018. I also applied the model to value wetland benefits. Virginia Tech: Developed a new econometric approach (Bayesian matching estimator) to estimate the loss in home values from being located in a special flood hazard area. This model is less sensitive to misspecification errors, and widely applicable to other real-estate valuation contexts. Using a rich data set on home sales for five counties in Connecticut, controlling for a plethora of potentially confounding effects, and applying state-of-the art doubly-robust matching methods, we show that SFHA-related risk losses can vary dramatically by location relative to the coast line, with near-coastal losses exceeding interior effects by seven-fold. We take this as evidence that homebuyers hold beliefs of elevated flood risks in coastal zones, even though the official Flood Insurance Rate Map designation for those homes is identical to that of interior counterparts. To the extent that these beliefs align with objective risks, our results provide ammunition for calls for a more spatially refined rate setting policy for federal flood insurance. Virginia Tech: Developed the econometric framework to analyze the data to be expected from the large-scale watershed improvement survey in New England. The highlight of the statistical model is that it allows for variable uncertainty and model-averaging. This is important given the large number of candidate explanatory variables that could explain a household's response to the binary (yes/no) willingness-to-pay question collected in the survey. The statistical model was tested with simulated data and found to perform well. I also contributed to the design of the emerging survey instrument via computational simulation of different bid designs to be used in the survey.

Publications

Publications: Ahmadiani, Mona, Susana Ferreira, and Craig E. Landry. 2019. “Flood Insurance and Risk Reduction: Market Penetration, Coverage, and Mitigation in Coastal North Carolina” Southern Journal of Economics. DOI: 10.1002/soej.12332 Ando, A.W., A. Howlader, and M. Mallory. 2018. “Diversifying to reduce conservation outcome uncertainty in multiple environmental objectives.” Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 47(2): 220–238. doi.org/10.1017/age.2018.7. Ando, A.W., J. Fraterrigo, G. Guntenspergen, A. Howlader, M. Mallory, J. Olker, and S. Stickley. 2018. “When portfolio theory can help environmental investment planning to reduce climate risk to future environmental outcomes – and when it cannot.” Conservation Letters. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/conl.12596">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/conl.12596</a>. Ando, A.W. and N. Netusil. 2018. “Valuing the benefits of green stormwater infrastructure.” Oxford Encyclopedia of Environmental Science. doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780199389414.013.605. Ando, A.W. and C. Langpap. 2018. “The economics of species conservation.” Annual Review of Resource Economics 10: 445-467. doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100517-022921. Balukas, J.E., Bell, K.P., and D.M. Bauer. 2019. Classifying private landowners to improve understanding of management decisions and conservation opportunities in urbanizing forested landscapes, Journal of Environmental Management, 232: 751-758, DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.128. Bell, K.P., Markowski-Lindsay, M., Catanzaro, P., and J.E. Leahy. 2018. Family-forest owner decisions, landscape context, and landscape change, Landscape and Urban Planning, DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.08.023 (posted online 2018 October). Bi, Xiang, Tatiana Borisova, and Alan Hodges.  2019. Economic Value of Visitation to Free-Flowing and Impounded Portions of a River: Implications for Management River Flow.  Forthcoming. Review of Regional Studies. Byrd, ES, NJO Widmar, BM Gramig. "Presentation Matters: Number of Attributes Presented Impacts Estimated Preferences." Agribusiness: an International Journal, 34(2):377-389, 2018. Cho, S., S. Moon, B. English, T.E. Yu, C. Boyer. 2019. “Targeting Payments for Forest Carbon Sequestration Given Ecological and Economic Objectives.” Forest Policy and Economics 100:214-226. Doering, OC, BM Gramig and D Jeong. “Economic and Policy Implications of Nitrogen Management.” Soil Nitrogen Uses and Environmental Impacts, Advances in Soil Science: Soil Nitrogen volume, eds. R. Lal and B.A. Stewart. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group: 2018. Dundas, S. J., R. H. von Haefen, and C. Mansfield. 2018. Recreation Costs of Endangered Species Protection: Evidence from Cape Hatteras National Seashore, Marine Resource Economics 33(1): 1-25. English, E., Roger von Haefen, J. Herriges, C. Leggett, Frank Lupi, K. McConnell, M. Welsh, A. Domanski, N. Meade. 2018. Estimating the value of lost recreation days from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. J. Environmental Economics and Management. 91:26-45. Fu, Guanlong, Muna Shah, Emi Uchida, Xiangzheng Deng. (2018) “Impact of the Grain for Green program on forest cover in China.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2018.1552626">https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2018.1552626</a> Gramig, BM and NJO Widmar. "Farmer Preferences for Agricultural Soil Carbon Sequestration Schemes." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 40(3):502-521, 2018. Jakus, Paul M., and Sherzod B. Akhundjanov. 2018. “Neither Boon nor Bane: The Economic Effects of a Landscape-Scale National Monument.” Land Economics, 94(3):323-339. Jakus, Paul M. 2018. “A Review of Economic Studies Related to the Bureau of Land Management’s Wild Horse and Burro Program.” Human-Wildlife Interactions, 12(1):58-74. Johnston, R., K. Moeltner (published online Jan. 2019). Special Flood Hazard Effects on Coastal and Interior Home Values: One Size Does Not Fit All, Environmental and Resource Economics. Lang, C., & Cavanagh, P. (2018). Incomplete Information and Adverse Impacts of Environmental Cleanup. Land Economics, 94(3), 386-404. Lang, C. (2018). Assessing the efficiency of local open space provision. Journal of Public Economics, 158, 12-24. LaRiviere, Jacob, David M. Kling, James N. Sanchirico, Charles Sims, and Michael Springborn. 2018. "The treatment of uncertainty and learning in the economics of natural resource and environmental management." Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 12(1): 92-112. Lewis, D.J., and S. Polasky. 2018. “An Auction Mechanism for the Optimal Provision of Ecosystem Services under Climate Change.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 92: 20-34. Li, Jingyuan, Craig E. Landry. 2018. “Flood Risk, Local Hazard Mitigation, and the Community Rating System of NFIP” Land Economics 94(2): 175-198 doi: <a href="../AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/INetCache/AppData/Local/Packages/microsoft.windowscommunicationsapps_8wekyb3d8bbwe/LocalState/Files/S0/25531/Attachments/10.3368/le/94.2.175">10.3368/le.94.2.175</a> Liu, Tingting, James Opaluch, Emi Uchida. (2017) “The impact of water quality improvement in Narragansett Bay on housing prices.” Water Resources Research 53, doi:10.1002/2016WR019606. Liu, Y, MR Langemeier, IM Small, L Joseph, WE Fry, JB Ristaino, A Saville, BM Gramig, PV Preckel. "A Risk Analysis of Precision Agriculture Technology to Manage Tomato Late Blight." Sustainability 10(9), 3108, 2018. Markowski-Lindsay, M., Catanzaro, P., Bell, K.P., Kittredge, D., Markowitz, E., Leahy, J.E., Butler, B., Milman, A., and S. Allred. 2018. In Forest and Intact: Designating Future Use of Family-Forest-Owned Land, Journal of Forestry, 116(4):357–366, DOI: 10.1093/jofore/fvy015. Moeltner, K., (2019). Bayesian Nonlinear Meta Regression for Benefit Transfer, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 93, 44-62. Mueller, Julie M., Soder, Adrienne B., and Springer, Abraham E. (2019). “Valuing attributes of restoration in a semi-arid watershed.” Landscape and Urban Planning 184: 78-87. Mueller, Julie M., Lima, Ryan E., Springer, Abraham E. and Schiefer, Erik. (2018). “Using matching methods to estimate impacts of wildfire and post-wildfire flooding on house prices.” Water Resources Research 54(9):6189-6201 Nohner, J., Frank Lupi and W. Taylor, 2018. Lakefront property owners' willingness to accept easements for conservation of water quality and habitat. Water Resources Research. 54(3):1533-48. Netusil, N.R., M. Jarrad, K. Moeltner (2019). Research Note: The Effect of Stream Restoration Project Attributes on Property Sale Prices, Landscape and Urban Planning 185, 158-162. Penn J, and W Hu. 2018. Understanding Hypothetical Bias: An Enhanced Meta-Analysis. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 100(4): 1186-1206. Penn JM, Hu W, and LJ Cox. 2019. Forced Choice with Constant Choice Experiment Complexity. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 44(2): 439-455. Penn J, Penn H, and W Hu. 2018. Public knowledge of monarch conservation in Kentucky. Sustainability. 10(3). doi:10.3390/su10030807 Sullivan, Karen, Thomas Sproul, Emi Uchida, and Jintao Xu. (2018) “Prospect theory and tenure reform: Impacts on forest management”. Land Economics 94(3): 405-424. Swallow, S, C Anderson, Emi Uchida. (2018) The Bobolink Project: Selling Public Goods From Ecosystem Services Using Provision Point Mechanisms. Ecological Economics 143: 236-252. Trull N, Penn J, and W Hu. 2018. Public Support for Growth and Funding in Built Environments: Case of an Arboretum. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment. 33(4): 829-841. Uchida, Emi, Stephen Swallow, Arthur Gold, James Opaluch, Achyut Kafle, Nathaniel Merrill, Clayton Michaud, and Carrie Gill. (2018) “Integrating watershed hydrology and economics to establish a local market for water quality improvement: A field experiment.” Ecological Economics 146: 17-25. Wu, Qianyan, Xiang Bi, Kelly Grogan, and Tatiana Borisova.  2018. Valuing Recreation Benefits of Natural Springs in Florida.  Water.  10(10): 1379. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101379">https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101379</a>. Yang, H., Frank Lupi, J. Zhang, X. Chen and J. Liu, 2018, Feedback of telecoupling: The case of a payment for ecosystem services program, Ecology and Society. 23(2):45. Zhong H, Hu W and J Penn. 2018. Farmers’ Willingness and Expected Economic Benefit to Adopt BMPs: An Application of Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equation Method. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 43(1): 78-102. Forthcoming Hess, Joshua, Dale Manning, Terry Iverson, and Harvey Cutler (forthcoming). Uncertainty, Learning, and Local Opposition to Hydraulic Fracturing. Resource and Energy Economics. Lamb, K.*, K. Hansen, C. T. Bastian, C. Jones Ritten, and A. Nagler, “Investigating Potential Impacts of Credit Failure Risk Mitigation on Habitat Exchange Outcomes.”  Environmental and Resource Economics. Conference on Behavioral and Experimental Agri-Environmental Research Special Issue.  (Currently in Press). Maas, Alexander, Chris Goemans, Jesse Burkhardt, and Mazdak Arabe (forthcoming). Complements of the House: Estimating Demand-side Linkages between Residential Water and Electricity, Water Resources and Economics. Manning, Dale, and Jordan Suter (forthcoming). The Role of Well Capacity Constraints in Determining Gains from Groundwater Management. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. Mutyasira, Vine, Dana Hoag, Dustin Pendell, and Dale Manning (forthcoming).  Sustainable Intensification in Ethiopian Smallholder Farming Systems. Sustainability. Mutyasira , Vine, Dana Hoag, Dale Manning, and Dustin Pendell (forthcoming). Assessing the Relative Sustainability of   Smallholder Farming Systems in Ethiopian Highlands, Agricultural Systems. Shepler, Ryan, Jordan Suter, Dale Manning, and Chris Goemans (forthcoming).  Private Actions and Preferences for Coordinated Groundwater Conservation in Colorado’s Republican River Basin, Journal of the American Water Resource Association. Soh, M., S. Cho. 2019. “Spatial Targeting of Payments for Ecosystem Services to Achieve Conservation Goals and Promote Social Equity and Economic Impact.” Natural Resource Modeling, In press. Other Publications Barfield, Ashley and Craig E. Landry. 2018. “Valuation of Beach Quality” in Oxford Encyclopedia of Environmental Economics, Oxford University Press, Earth & Environmental Science. Miao, Haoran. 2017. Three Essays on the Impact of Information on Nonpoint Source polluters’ Behavior. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, University of Rhode Island. Jakus, Paul M., Commentary, “Large National Monuments Don’t Damage Rural Economies--But They Don’t Help Either”, Deseret News (40,000 weekday circulation), August 23, 2018. Jakus, Paul M., Radio Interview, “Large National Monuments Don’t Damage Rural Economies--But They Don’t Help Either”, KNRS 105.9 (Salt Lake City—125,000 drive time listeners), August 23, 2018. Von Haefen. NC State University Press Release, “What’s the Value of Lost Recreation Days from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill?” August 2018. Von Haefen. Extension article (with Steven Dundas), “Conflicts on Public Lands: The Case of Off-Road Vehicle Restrictions on Cape Hatteras National Seashore,” NC State Economist, Summer 2018. Von Haefen. Interview, “Costs and Benefits of Cape Hatteras ORV Restrictions,” WUNC Radio, January 2018. Von Haefen. NC State University Press Release, “Benefits of Off-Road Vehicle Restrictions May Outweigh the Costs,” January 2018. Von Haefen. Extension article (with Steven Dundas), “Conflicts on Public Lands: The Case of Off-Road Vehicle Restrictions on Cape Hatteras National Seashore,” NC State Economist, Summer 2018. Von Haefen. Interview, “Costs and Benefits of Cape Hatteras ORV Restrictions,” WUNC Radio, January 2018. Von Haefen. NC State University Press Release, “Benefits of Off-Road Vehicle Restrictions May Outweigh the Costs,” January 2018. Papers, Presentations, and Reports Ando, A. “Environmental Economic Approaches to Soil Health as a Capital Stock.” Soil Health on Rented Lands in Indiana: A Workshop for Agricultural, Conservation and Landowner Service Professionals to Explore Potential Solutions convened by The Nature Conservancy at the NCAA Hall of Champions, Indianapolis, IN. March 23, 2018. Jakus, Paul M. and Sherzod B. Akhundjanov. 2018. “The Antiquities Act, Large National Monuments, and Regional Income.” Presentations at Colorado State University (September), University of Tennessee (October), and Weber State University (November). Penn J, and W Hu. 2018. Understanding Hypothetical Bias in Willingness to Accept: A Meta-Analysis and Experiment. Accepted presentation, SEA, Nov 18-20, Washington DC. Penn J, and W Hu. 2018. Cheap Talk, Consequentiality, and Certainty Follow-up as Hypothetical Bias Mitigation Techniques: A Cross Country Comparison. Accepted presentation, AAEA, Aug 5-7, Washington DC. Penn J, Hu W, and H Penn. 2019. Support for Native, Solitary Pollinator Conservation Among the Public Versus Hobby Beekeepers. Invited track presentation, ASSA, Atlanta, GA. Sardana, Kavita, John C. Bergstrom, and Oleksiy Tokovenko. “A Latent Class Approach for Modeling Arbitrariness in the Definition of ‘Visitors’ for Individual Trip Behavior”, Selected Paper, 6th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Gothenburg, Sweden, June, 2018. Steele, Amanda Harker and John C. Bergstrom. “Investigating the Effects of Energy Efficient Technology on Household Energy Security: A Stochastic Production Frontier Approach”.  Selected Paper to be presented at the 6th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Gothenberg, Sweden, June, 2018. Steele, Amanda Harker and John C. Bergstrom. “Does Energy Efficiency Affect Energy Security? An Analysis of Energy Efficient Upgrades and Household Energy Security”.  Selected Paper to be presented at the Annual Meetings of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Washington, D.C., August, 2018. Steele, Amanda Harker and John C. Bergstrom. “Tackling Wicked Problems when Teaching Applied Economics: An Application to the Bears Ears National Monument”.  Invited Case Study and Selected Poster to be presented at the Annual Meetings of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Washington, D.C., August, 2018. Steele, Amanda Harker and John C. Bergstrom. ”Tackling Wicked Problems when Teaching Applied Economics: An Application to the Bears Ears National Monument”.  Selected Poster Presentation, University System of Georgia Teaching and Learning Conference, Athens, GA, April, 2018. von Haefen, Roger H. “Weather Effects on the Demand for Coastal Recreational Fishing: Implications for a Changing Climate,” World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Gothenburg, Sweden, July 2018. von Haefen, Roger H. “Weather Effects on the Demand for Coastal Recreational Fishing: Implications for a Changing Climate,” Appalachian State University Experimental and Environmental Policy Workshop, Blowing Rock, NC, April 2018. von Haefen, Roger H. “The Natural Resource Damages from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill,” Duke Kunshan University, July 2018. von Haefen, Roger H. “Weather Effects on the Demand for Coastal Recreational Fishing: Implications for a Changing Climate,” Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, April 2018. von Haefen, Roger H. “The Natural Resource Damages from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill,” University of Alberta, Edmonton Alberta, February 2018. 2019 MEETING ABSTRACTS Title: The Impact of Bison Reintroduction on the Local Economy Authors: Liqing Li and Amy W. Ando (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign) W4133 task: 1-1 Presenter: Amy Ando Presenter email: amyando@illinois.edu Abstract: This paper contributes to W4133 Task 1-1 by estimating the economic impact of changing rural environments by reintroducing bison. Government agencies and non-profit conservation groups are restoring prairies and reintroducing bison to facilitate ecological restoration and reclaim this iconic mammal from the brink of extinction in the wild (Zumbach, 2015). Currently, there are forty-eight bison herds exist in the U.S., including both wild and non-wild bison herds. Bison reintroduction provides chances to help local tourism through wildlife marketing (Vasile, 2018). However, there is an opportunity cost to land dedicated to bison and ranchers have expressed concern about disease spreading from bison to cattle. Thus, the net economic impact of bison reintroduction on rural communities is unclear. This paper conducts a nation-wide assessment of the economic impacts of bison reintroduction so rural communities can take economic well-being into account when considering their future decisions regarding bison restoration. Previous research has studied the effects of protecting nature on local economic activity Early studies raised concern that protected areas can be a threat to local economic well-being (Rasker,1993). Later research shows that it is possible that protected areas can change the structure of local economies in a positive way. For example, increased tourism can provide more employment opportunities (Andam et al. 2008; Andam et al. 2010). However, most of these studies focus on conservation and reintroduction of wildlife in developing countries. A study focuses on the northern forest region in the U.S. shows that conservation land has no significant impact on employment growth. (Lewis et al. 2002) and a small amount of work has studied the impact of bison or wolf populations on the desirability to visit particular recreational sites in the U.S. (Loomis & Caughlan, 2010; Duffield et al. 2008). There has been no nation-wide evaluation of how the reintroduction of bison into grassland areas affect the economic well-being of the residents. This paper fills this gap by providing a descriptive analysis of the presence of U.S. bison herds and estimating the causal relationship between bison reintroduction and local economic health. First, we use a probit model to show correlations between the presence of bison herds in a county and the county’s physical and socioeconomic characteristics. Results indicate that the presence of bison herds is positively correlated with a county’s per capita income and (for non-wild bison herds) negatively correlated with unemployment rates. In this naïve analysis, bison herds are linked to economic prosperity. Because correlation is a poor measure of causality, we carry out other analyses to estimate the impact of bison reintroduction on local employment, population, and per capita income. We use cross-sectional propensity score matching (PSM), matching with difference-in-difference (DD), and the synthetic control method (SCM). We use cross-sectional PSM to evaluate the effects of bison reintroduction by comparing economic prosperity in the counties with bison herds to those of similar counties without bison herds. We match counties based on county characteristics that are fixed over time and unlikely to have been affected by bison reintroduction. Such variables include geographic and climate characteristics like elevation, precipitation, mean temperature, county size, the percentage of grassland in a county, and protected areas under different conservation mechanisms in a county. Then we compare the average outcomes from the treatment and control counties measured after bison reintroduction. We choose the year 2016 for our analysis since it is the year in which we can include the largest number of bison herds in the regression with the latest available county characteristics data. In the cross-sectional matching analyses, fifty-five counties with bison herds are considered as treatment counties. Different matching specifications, including nearest neighbor (NN) matching with caliper and kernel matching, are applied to identify the impact of bison reintroduction on local economic health. One limitation of the PSM comes from matching on observables. If unobserved factors confound both bison reintroduction decisions and outcomes, the estimated impact of bison reintroduction gained by cross-sectional PSM is biased.  Applying PSM with DD can control for unobserved factors that are time-invariant. When we use 1980 as the baseline year and 2016 as the endline year, 24 counties that have bison herds established between 1980 and 2016 are included in the treated group. PSM is first applied to find controls for the treated counties, and DD is applied on the matched sample after matching to generate the causal estimates of bison reintroduction on local employment, population, and per capita income. The SCM introduced by Abadie et al. (2010) extends the traditional DD framework by allowing for the presence of time-varying unobserved variables and constructs a better counterfactual for each of the treated counties. The basic idea behind the SCM is to construct a synthetic control unit as the counterfactual of the treated county by weighting average of several untreated counties (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003; Abadie et al., 2010). The weight of each control county is determined based on how closely the characteristics of the control match those of the treated counties in the pre-treatment period. As a comparative case study approach, this method provides more informative results not only on how bison reintroduction affects the local economy in each treated county, but also the trend of effects on outcome variables during the post-treatment period. We find little evidence of a significant impact of bison reintroduction on local economic activity. Results from the cross-sectional PSM show that the effects of bison reintroduction on income, population, and the total number of jobs are positive in sign but insignificant, while bison reintroduction has a negative and significant impact on the unemployment rate. Results from our DD analysis show that bison reintroduction has a positive but insignificant impact on the total number of jobs, while the impact of reintroduction on the per capita income and the population are negative and insignificant. Results from the SCM are consistent with the findings of the DD analysis; for each county with bison herds, bison reintroduction has an insignificant impact on local economic health. Naïve cross-sectional analysis might imply that bison reintroduction is good for the local economy, but causal inference methods find no significant effect. Title:  The Inefficiencies in Wildfire Suppression Resource Allocation Authors: Jude Bayham W4133 task: Task 1-2: Economic Analysis of Natural Hazards Presenter: Jude Bayham Presenter email: jbayham@colostate.edu Abstract: Federal, state, and local expenditures on wildfire suppression are reaching unprecedented levels.  While the underlying causes include climate change, a growing wildland urban interface, and historical management practices, the way in which wildfire suppression resources are allocated may also contribute to rising cost.  Economists are well aware of the problems that arise with common pool resources.  An analogous problem exists in the allocation of wildfire suppression resources.  Individual fire managers do not directly bear the cost of the resources they use, nor do they realize the opportunity costs imposed on other fire managers when resources are unavailable. We develop a dynamic economic model to demonstrate the divergence between the incentives of individual fire managers and a social planner.  The model generates an important hypothesis: fire managers have an incentive to behave strategically by pre-emptively requesting resources to maintain excess suppression capacity in anticipation of increased fire activity.  We test this hypothesis using data compiled from several sources.  We collect daily data on the quantity and type of wildfire suppression resources ordered and assigned to fires from the federal Resource Ordering Status System (ROSS).  We also collect data on the so called preparedness level, which is a rating on a five point scale to indicate the level of suppression capacity in a region given expected fire behavior.  We integrate this data with fire conditions, weather, and other environmental conditions.  We test the hypothesis that fire managers strategically order resources and declare less suppression capacity when they believe that other managers competing for the same resources are likely to do the same.  We then use the empirical results to simulate the economically efficient allocation of suppression resources to demonstrate the consequences of ignoring opportunity costs. This work addresses Task 1-2: Economic Analysis of Natural Hazards by studying inefficiencies in how federal agencies respond to wildfire. Title: Environmental change and recreation demand: Assessing interactions between beach width and beach recreation demand Authors: Kathleen P. Bell (University of Maine) W4133 task: Task 3-2: Economic Analysis of Recreation Services Presenter: Kathleen P. Bell Presenter email: kpbell@maine.edu Abstract: In coastal areas of the US, where beaches serve as prominent recreation and tourism resources, mounting vulnerabilities to environmental change make the sustainability of recreation services uncertain. As natural resource managers face intensifying disturbances, multifaceted policy challenges, and, in some instances, shrinking budgets, numerous questions arise about the impacts of environmental change on coastal recreation services and the implications of these impacts for management strategies, communities, industries, and individuals. In this paper, we summarize the results of an economic analysis of the impacts of shoreline change on coastal beach recreation services (W4133 Task 3-2) at Popham Beach State Park, Maine. Our empirical analysis includes visual and statistical summaries of survey responses collected from beach visitors and recreation demand modeling of their beach day-trips. Working collaboratively with regional coastal manager, we designed our research to align with identified knowledge gaps about the impacts of shoreline change on visitors’ recreation experiences, awareness of changing shorelines, and attitudes’ about alternative management responses. Our analyses of respondent survey responses provide insights about how visitors conceptualize shoreline change and assess distinct alternative management strategies. The majority of our survey respondents noted recognizing changes to the beach and shoreline at Popham Beach State Park. Notably, respondents acknowledged different types of change and offered diverse explanations for these changes. Further, analysis of open-ended responses revealed varied interpretations of the impacts of beach narrowing on recreation experiences as well as varied levels of support for alternative future management strategies. When asked about potential future management responses at Popham Beach State Park, respondents were split, with forty-nine percent of participants reporting a desire for the state to take management action, forty percent of respondents indicating the state should let nature take its course, and eleven percent of respondents uncertain about the state’s preferred strategy. Our findings have implications for how coastal managers in Maine and beyond engage with visitors about and respond to environmental change, and offer insights for recreation demand modelers interested in simulating visitor responses to different types of change. Our recreation demand modeling of beach day-trips complements the descriptive and exploratory components of our work by simulating and quantifying the impacts of environmental change on coastal recreation services. We estimate a series of single-site, quasi-panel recreation demand models of day-trips to Popham Beach State Park to assess changes in beach recreation that might occur from beach narrowing and shoreline change. We integrate stated and revealed preference data collected onsite from visitors in August 2016, and intentionally follow conventions assessing trip responses to changes in beach width to bolster comparison with prior work. For example, our base model run produced a mean per-trip consumer surplus estimate or access value per trip of approximately $53.30 and predicted a mean loss per trip of $11.25 if the beach width at Popham Beach State Park were to be reduced by one half. Comparing the consistency of modeling and consumer surplus estimates from our Maine site with prior results, we found that our per-trip consumer surplus estimates fell in between estimates from Delaware Bay and North Carolina and that our predicted mean loss per trip exceeded prior estimates. We are investigating the sensitivity of model performance and valuation estimates to different modeling choices and assumptions, including the robustness of findings to different corrections for onsite sampling bias, measures of travel costs, and alternative treatments of heterogeneous recreation preferences. In summary, by sharing insights about how coastal recreationists respond to changing beach width and other forms of environmental change, this work helps support management decisions and guide advances in economic analysis of recreation services. Title: The Effect of Pollution on Aggressive Behavior: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke and Crime Authors: Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily Fischer, Jesse Berman, Jeffery Pierce W4133 task: Task 1-2: Economic Analysis of Natural Hazards (fire, invasive species, climate change) Presenter: Jesse Burkhardt     Presenter email: jesse.burkhardt@colostate.edu Abstract: We estimate the effect of short-term air pollution (PM2.5) exposure on several categories of crime with a particular emphasis on aggressive behavior. To identify this relationship, we combine detailed daily data on crime, PM2.5, and satellite-derived smoke plumes for an eight-year period across the United States.  We develop two methods to correct measurement error in satellite-based wildfire smoke plume data and use the remaining exogenous variation as an instrument for overall changes in PM2.5. Our findings indicate a strong and robust positive effect of increased PM2.5 on violent crimes, and specifically assaults. However, we find no statistical relationship between increases in PM2.5 and property crimes or other non-violent crimes. The results suggest that a 1μg/m3 reduction in daily PM2.5 could save $1 billion in crime costs per year, a previously overlooked cost associated with pollution. Title: TRAVEL COST MODELS USING CONTINUOUS NON-NEGATIVE DISTRIBUTIONS AND MEASURING OUT OF SAMPLE PERFORMANCE Authors: Jeffrey Englin, Thomas Holmes and Octavio Valdez Larfarga Presenter: Jeffrey Englin Presenter email: jenglin@asu.edu Abstract: Big data is becoming more prevalent in the valuation of non-market goods. This is partly due to large environmental events with widespread impacts such as Deepwater Horizon, partly due to the ability to merge large detailed ecological data sets onto behavioral datasets but also due to the realization that administrative data can be used to infer environmental values. This analysis uses both large ecological and administrative data sets. The econometric analysis introduces the excess zero exponential and excess zero log normal distributions to travel cost modeling. Traditional excess zero count models are also employed for comparative purposes. The new distributions allow large national data sets to be applied to specific areas, in this case wilderness areas, and derive nationally valid welfare estimates. In particular, they allow for extremely high usage counts (popular sites) while dealing effectively with an excess number of zeros as well. The data is driven by wilderness back country permits and the Environmental Protection Agency Level III ecosystem map. The wildernesses are located in the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, Rocky Mountains and the High Plains of the Midwest. The ecosystems studied include the Blue Mountain, Cascades Central Cascades and High Plains. The analysis proceeds by using five stratified sampling without replacement from a 70 million observation data set to repeated samples of 700,000 observations. The samples are stratified based on wilderness and year so as to retain a representative subsample. Models using the new continuous distributions and the classic count models are estimated in the conventional way on one subsample. The estimated parameters are then applied to the remaining samples to analyze the potential of over fitting the models to first sample. It also allows the generalizability of the original set of estimates to be assessed. Finally, model averaging is applied since one cannot be sure of the correct distribution. The welfare results for the averaged model are also presented. The performance of each model and method is analyzed and compared. This analysis works to achieve Objective 2 Task 2-1 and Objective 3 Tasks 3-1 and 3-2. Title: Estimating Preferences for Water Quality when Water Quality Data is Scarce Authors: Caroline Kelsoe, Matt Interis, & Seong Yun W4133 task: Task 3-1, Task 3-2, Task 3-3 Presenter: Caroline Kelsoe Presenter email: caroline.kelsoe13@gmail.com Abstract: In its 2012 National Lakes Assessment, the EPA determined that nutrients are the most widespread stressor of US Lakes, with one-third of US lakes containing excess nitrogen and/or phosphorus. In response, states are developing Numeric Nutrient Criteria to regulate the allowable amount of nutrients in surface waterbodies. Our study fits into the larger benefit-cost assessment of this policy in Mississippi as we attempt to estimate the benefits of improved water quality in Mississippi lakes. A major challenge, however, is the lack of water quality data for many Mississippi lakes.  We present estimates of the benefits from improved water quality in Mississippi lakes based on travel cost data from Mississippi residents and introduce possible solutions to potential choice set specification issues caused by a lack of water quality data for Mississippi lakes. Specifically, respondents recorded trip information for over 100 lakes in Mississippi, but only 17 of those lakes have water quality data for the year the respondents reported trip information. In order to understand the extent to which a constrained choice set from inadequate data affects welfare estimates, we introduce a water quality prediction model from water science literature. Using a panel dataset of water quality data from Mississippi lakes both included and excluded from the choice set, we estimate a regression model to predict water quality in the 80+ lakes that lack water quality data. We then compare welfare estimates from a full and constrained choice set to determine evaluate the extent to which inadequate data could affect policy-making decisions. Title: Hold the Line: Modeling Private Coastal Adaptation through Shoreline Armoring Decisions  Authors: W. Jason Beasley, Steven J. Dundas W4133 tasks: Task 1-2: Economic Analysis of Natural Hazards (fire, invasive species, climate change) Task 2-3: Advances in Spatial/Environmental Nexus Task 3-1: Economic Analysis of Ecosystem Services Flows Presenter: Steven J. Dundas Presenter email: <a href="mailto:steven.dundas@oregonstate.edu">steven.dundas@oregonstate.edu</a> Abstract Managing and preparing for risks presented by sea-level rise (SLR) is an emerging issue of primary importance for coastal climate adaptation globally. Recent research suggest the majority of the expenditure on coastal adaptation in the U.S. by 2100 will be through private investments in shoreline armoring. Yet, decisions about public adaptation to coastal risk through beach nourishment has garnered most of the attention in the economic literature to date. This gap is significant because there are key differences between the public adaptation decision of nourishment and private shoreline armoring decisions. This paper explores the economics of private coastal adaptation to climate change by modeling shoreline armoring decisions. We develop an analytical framework that suggests that negative spatial externalities, peer effects and neighbor interactions may lead to the oversupply of coastal protection when these decisions are made by individuals. To test our framework empirically, we assemble a parcel-level panel dataset of oceanfront land in Oregon from 1990 to 2015 where we observe the location and 1 timing of each armoring decision. For each parcel, we construct a detailed set of highresolution variables characterizing the geomorphological risk profile of land, peer effects of adjacent and proximate armoring of neighboring parcels, and indicators for seasonal shocks (El Ni&tilde;no–Southern Oscillation) likely to impact armoring decisions. We use a correlated random-effects approach to estimate our econometric model to overcome endogeneity concerns related to modeling repeated decisions over time and unobserved time-invariant parcel level characteristics, while also allowing credible identification of the impact of neighboring land-use (i.e., peer effects) and land characteristics (i.e., risk conveyance) on the armoring decision over time. Our results show that land characteristics, peer effects and cost-sharing coalition effects increase the probability of observing an installation decision. Importantly, we show peer effects tend to dominate the impacts of risk characteristics of land. We then construct Monte Carlo landscape simulations that capture the dynamic nature of the armoring decision. We first compare total armoring counts and spatial densities between a pure risk model (baseline model) and model that includes peer effects. Results suggest that the inclusion of peer effects leads a 93 percent increases in armoring counts and a five-fold increase in clustering of shoreline armoring. Then, using the peer effects framework as our preferred specification, we simulate a counterfactual policy that relaxes armoring restrictions under Oregon’s Goal 18. We find this policy change could result in an additional 350 parcels choosing to armor over the next 40 years. This suggests the current policy may be an effective tool to preserve the public good (beach access and natural landscapes) but highlights a growing tension between coastal preservation and risk to private property. Lastly, we run a SLR simulation by varying parcel elevation, distance from the parcel structure to the shoreline, and erosion rates based on NOAA projections of SLR. Our results indicate that under a moderate (worst-case) SLR scenario, we would expect a statistically significant 16 (26) percent increase in the count of armored parcels within three decades. Importantly, we find that the relaxation of current land-use policies combined with modest (worst-case) SLR predictions has potential to increase armoring in excess of 200 (230) percent over the same time period – highlighting the critical role policy is likely to have in shaping our future coastlines. Title: “Preliminary Results from a Meta-analysis of US Farmer Adoption of Agricultural Best Management Practices” Authors: B.M. Gramig (UIUC), K. Floress (USFS), L.S. Prokopy (Purdue), A. Singh (CSU-Sacramento), F. Eanes (Bates College), S. Church (Purdue), P Ranjan (Purdue), Y Gao (UC-Berkeley), and J. Arbuckle (Iowa State) W4133 task: Task 1-1: Economic Analysis of Agriculture, Forest, and Rangeland Resources, Open Space, and WUI Zones Presenter: Gramig Presenter email: bgramig@illinois.edu Abstract: We construct a database of 35 years (1982-2017) of agricultural conservation practice adoption studies to perform a quantitative meta-analysis of the determinants of adoption findings published in the academic literature. The database contains all reported model statistics and estimated parameters, including dependent and independent variable descriptions, from 171 separate quantitative studies conducted by economists and non-economists. Preliminary results of a statistical meta-analysis of these data are presented, and ideas for further and more refined analysis will be solicited from meeting participants. We apply conventional statistical methods to analyze study-level determinants of conservation practice adoption behavior under Hatch Multi-State project W-4133 Task 1-1.Co-authors Arbuckle, Floress, Gramig and Prokopy are also members of the NC-1190 multi-state Hatch project. Researchers from California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Maine are engaged in this research, as well as one researcher from the US Forest Service’s Northern Research Station. Title: Has the “Mighty 5” Ad Campaign Boosted National Park Tourism in Utah? Tatiana Drugova, Man-Keun Kim, and Paul M. Jakus Abstract: Utah’s “Mighty 5” ad campaign was designed to attract out-of-state visitors to Southern Utah’s five National Parks (NP). Using the synthetic control method, we find the campaign to have been effective in raising visitation at three of Utah’s five NPs: Arches, Canyonlands, and Capitol Reef. No ad campaign effect was found for Bryce Canyon and Zion NP which implies that recent increased visitation in Bryce Canyon and Zion NPs has been driven by the national trends and not the promotional effects of the Mighty 5 campaign. Arches, Bryce Canyon, and Zion NPs currently suffer from excess demand (congestion), and the US National Park Service (USNPS) is actively engaged in visitor management efforts to mitigate the environmental pressures associated with over-visitation. This study provides evidence that an opportunity exists for state and federal officials to craft a coordinated “demarketing” campaign that relieves congestion at overcrowded sites, allows the USNPS to relieve pressure on sensitive ecological systems, and promote tourism to high quality alternative sites. Title: Low snowpack and Wildfires: A Welfare Double-Edge Sword for Hikers Author: Sonja Kolstoe W4133 task: Objectives 1 (Task 1-1 & 1-2) & 3 (Task 3-2) Presenter: Sonja Kolstoe Presenter email: shkolstoe@salisbury.edu Abstract: The first decade of the 21st century provides us with early examples of the weather anomalies to expect in the future under climate change and thus a unique opportunity to look at the early-onset effects of climate change (Obj. 1, Task 1-2) on outdoor recreation such as hiking (Obj. 3, Task 3-2). Historically large wildfires were infrequent but have in recent times become the new normal in the western part of the United States (Barbero et al., 2015; Flannigan et al., 2013). Earlier studies have looked at how outdoor recreationalists’ value of forests and their attributes change in the presence of wildfires; however, they are looking at time periods with more infrequent wildfires and use a limited amount of spatial data (Englin et al., 1996; Loomis et al., 2001; Hesseln et al., 2003; Englin et al., 2006; Simões et al., 2013). I seek to address this void in the literature using data from the first decade and a half of the 21st century that captures this shift in the frequency and intensity of wildfires. I also incorporate temporally varying spatial data to more accurately capture the state of the site attributes. In addition, I compare how the timing and magnitude of the fire changes hiker welfare, by estimating both monthly and yearly repeated count models. I use U.S. Forest Service wilderness permit data from three wilderness areas, Indian Heaven, Mount Adams and Trapper Creek, located in the Gifford Pinchot National Forest and managed by the Mount Adams Ranger station, to explore how visits and hikers’ willingness to pay (WTP) change for forests and hiking trails as a result of wildfires in the study area (Obj. 1, Tasks 1-1 & 1-2, Obj. 3 Task 3-2). The permit data starts in 2001 when hikers were first required to fill out a wilderness permit to hike within these three wilderness areas. I include spatial data on land cover from the USGS, trail attribute data from the U.S. Forest Service through their FSGeodata Clearinghouse as well as monthly data on burned areas from MCD45A1, a dataset on Google Earth Engine. I look at how WTP changes over time as my analysis includes hiking trips from 2001-2014, a time period which includes three smaller fires (less than 500 acres) and two large-scale wildfires (approximately 8,000 acres and 20,000 acres) which occurred in 2008 and 2012. The 2008 wildfire was one of the largest of 29 major fires in the area since 1970 per the National Interagency Fire Report, Cold Springs Fire Long Term Suppression Strategy and Implementation Plan (2008). The absence of a large wildfire (500+ acres) in any of these areas until July 2008, when the smaller of the two larger wildfires occurred, and then a subsequent larger wildfire affords me the unique opportunity to look at how the scale and intensity difference of wildfires change hikers’ welfare. Their welfare is affected through two different channels: site-closures during the wildfire, as well as long-term alternation of the landscape due to the significant resulting burn scars after each of the large wildfires. Results suggest hikers’ WTP decreased for trails along areas of timber affected by the wildfires while hikers’ WTP does not change for trails through alpine meadows within the area affected by the wildfires. Title: Measuring Risk Preferences and Perceptions in the Field Authors: Craig E. Landry, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia; Dylan Turner, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia We devise an experimental design that should permit assessment of risk preferences within the context of a mail or internet survey, while allowing further exploration of risk perception. Utilizing historical weather data, we present mail survey respondents with information about rainfall and temperature probabilities. We then allow them to “gamble” their $5 incentive payment on one of four possible weather outcomes, each designed to bracket a range or risk preference parameters (via Constant Relative Risk Aversion formulation of Expected Utility). Responses permit inference on risk tolerance in the context of weather, which is relevant for the survey subject matter – flood risk and climate change. We also assess subjective beliefs about historical weather outcomes to produce information that is useful for Bayesian updating of weather beliefs. Lastly, we utilize novel instruments to assess subjective perceptions of risk (likelihood of hurricane strike) and outcome (conditional damage to structure in hurricane). We present empirical results to explore the utility and limitations of these approaches to assessing decision making under natural hazard risk. Title: Biases of using aggregate data to infer individual voting preferences  Authors: Corey Lang and Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz W4133 task: Task 2-1: Advances in Stated/Revealed Preference Methods Presenter: Corey Lang Presenter email: clang@uri.edu Abstract: Voting is one of the main determinants of public good provision (Fischel 2001) and an important source of data for examining revealed preferences for environmental goods. Economists have often used aggregated voting data matched with aggregate census data to estimate demand for various environmental goods (e.g., Deacon and Shapiro 1975, Kahn and Matsusaka 1997, Kotchen and Powers 2006, Banzhaf et al. 2010, Holian and Kahn 2015, Burkhardt and Chan 2017). The purpose of this paper is to assess the extent and causes of bias when using aggregate data to understand individual determinants of voting decisions. This research improves methods of using voting data as a measure of revealed preferences (4133 Task 2.1). Two distinct factors complicate the analysis of aggregate voting data. First, the voting population is fundamentally different than the non-voting population (Leighley and Nagler 2013), and using aggregated population characteristics essentially introduces systematic measurement error due to this mismatch. Second, analysis of aggregate voting data necessarily uses only spatial variation (i.e., between-precinct variation), whereas analysis of individual voting can use both within- and between-precinct variation. In the presence of omitted spatial variables, exclusively using spatial variation can lead to biased coefficient estimates. Monte Carlo analysis identifies conditions when mismatched population data and omitted variables lead to biased inference and the direction of bias. To empirically assess biases of using aggregate data to infer individual voting preferences, we collect two datasets related to voting on a statewide environmental referendum in Rhode Island called the Green Economy Bonds (GEB). The first dataset mirrors prior studies; we match precinct-level, aggregate voting outcomes to demographic information from the American Community Survey. Second, to obtain individual voting data, we completed a statewide exit poll on Election Day. We enlisted 80 undergraduate and graduate student volunteers who surveyed at 37 sample precinct locations and collected over 2,000 surveys. We treat the individual data and the results that stem from them as correct, and compare the aggregate data and results against this baseline to assess bias. From basic summary statistics, we find support for conditions leading to the two sources of bias. First, there are statistically significant and large differences among census and voting population. For example, while 22.4% of Rhode Island’s population has a college degree, 34.6% of our exit poll sample was at that education level. Second, there is a large degree of within-precinct variation among the voting and socioeconomic variables. On average, about 95% of variation is within precinct, meaning that aggregate models are using only 5% of total variation to estimate coefficients. We estimate identical models of voting preferences for GEB using the aggregate data and the individual exit poll data, regressing GEB vote on presidential vote and a large set of socioeconomic characteristics (education, income, race, etc.). We find strong differences between the two models. Coefficients on presidential vote are substantially different: the aggregate model’s coefficient on Voted for Clinton is 28% larger than the individual model, and voting for third party candidates is off by orders of magnitude. The coefficient on college degree is 0.039 for the individual model and 0.073 for the aggregate. The upward bias of the aggregate model is consistent with the simulation finding that groups more likely to vote will have inflated coefficients, though the bias could also be a result of an omitted variable. In additional specifications, we are able to demonstrate the presence of spatial omitted variables and the biasing effect of a mismeasured voting population. However, no adjustment can mitigate the bias of the aggregate model. The conclusion of this paper is that aggregate data cannot infer unbiased individual voting preferences and should be used only with this caveat. Title: Early Exposure to Nature and Willingness-To-Pay for Conservation Authors: Liqing Li (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Amy Ando (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); W4133 task: Task 3-2: Economic Analysis of Recreation Services Task 1-1: Economic Analysis of Agriculture, Forest, and Rangeland Resources, Open Space, and WUI Zones Presenter: Liqing Li Presenter email: lli40@illinois.edu Abstract: [Include reference to w4133 task] Current urban spatial structures reduce the interaction between nature and human beings. However, it is unclear how changes in people’s exposure to nature affect people’s preference for nature. Based on the standard assumption in neoclassical economics that individual preferences are fixed over time, the marginal value of nature increases with its scarcity. However, this pattern may not hold true if the changes in an individual’s interaction with nature affect his/her preference for nature. A negative change in an individual’s preference for nature shifts the demand curve to the left. People’s marginal value for nature may stay the same or even decrease with scarcity of nature. This paper uses a choice experiment (CE) and data on individuals’ childhood experiences with nature to evaluate which pattern holds true.   An individual’s demand for local amenities affects people’s location choice decision. Existing research has examined factors that affect an individual’s demand for different types of local amenities (Bishop et al., 2018; Isen et al., 2017). Nature has been found to be an important amenity, but the drivers of people’s demand for nature amenity has been little examined. Childhood plays an important role in building up an individual’s experience with nature. Current urban spatial structures can affect the next generation’s interaction with nature and thus affect the individual’s willingness to pay (WTP) for nature via experience. This paper quantifies how the current generation’s early-life experience with nature affects their current WTP for nature. A concept of amenity capital (human capital) (Krupk, 2009) may be used to explain the relationship between nature amenity and experience. The first generation’s choice of residential location affects the following generation’s ability to build up amenity capital by experience. Children build up nature related amenity capital through experiencing nature, and this amenity capital helps them enjoy nature more as it generates higher utility when visiting nature. In our hypotheses, we expect that childhood experience with nature affects respondents’ WTP for open space conservation. Respondents’ early-life experiences are measured in different dimensions, including: how often the individual visited nature and engaged in nature-related recreational activities, how often the individual received environmental education, and how easy it was for an individual to interact with nature (measured by the percentage of land that was developed in respondents’ hometowns). To test our hypotheses, we carry out a CE in three states - Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota - to estimate individuals’ WTP for different features and recreational activities of a hypothetical restored grassland. We also gather data on respondents’ early-life experience with nature and test whether those features of individuals affect their current WTP for preserving nature. We conduct this study in the context of hypothetical grassland restoration. Thus, this paper also expands our understanding of the values people place on preservation of grassland ecosystems; only Dissanayake and Ando (2014) have estimated the social value of grassland ecosystems and that work did not estimate values of recreation attributes. To examine the relationship between early-life experience and individual’s WTP, we use a mixed multinomial logit model with interaction term to analyze responses from the choice experiment. We also use a random parameter latent class model as an alternative perspective to study the effects of childhood experiences on value for grassland. The results reveal whether the demand of environmental goods is affected by an individual’s childhood experience and whether the impact of current urbanization on the next generation’s valuation for nature needs to be taken seriously (Task 1-1). Our findings also estimate respondents’ average WTP for the availability of different recreational activities of a hypothetical restored grassland (Task 3-2). That information can guide policymakers by indicating which recreational activities of a restored grassland should be prioritized. Title: Estimating the Impact of Fires on Recreation in the Angeles National Forest Using Combined Revealed and Stated Preference Methods Authors: Sophia Tanner, Frank Lupi*, Cloe Garnache W4133 task: fits any of Obj 1-1, 1-2; 2-1 or 3-2. Presenter: Frank Lupi Presenter email: lupi@msu.edu Abstract: Wildfire frequency and severity are increasingly important issues in the western United States, as fires threaten lives, properties and outdoor amenities. This paper uses a novel combination of revealed preference data from site intercepts and stated preference data from online surveys to estimate the welfare impacts of different fire scenarios at recreation sites within the Angeles National Forest, which is a popular recreation destination on the outskirts of the Los Angeles metropolitan area. In 2016, we collected onsite visitation data at 32 sites in the Angeles National Forest. Site visitation was measured by randomly sampling recreation sites within three strata defined by expected use level (high or low), weekend or weekday, and morning or afternoon. The on-site visitation data includes on-site counts and short intercept interviews of 2,266 visitors. Next, we followed up with an online survey to collect contingent behavior data. Under eight different fire history scenarios which corresponded to the vegetation at the site they visited, respondents were asked contingent behavior questions to ascertain if they would still make the same trip as before. Our empirical strategy exploits both the onsite and contingent behavior data to estimate welfare effects of fires. The sampling design weights and site counts allow us to estimate total visits to each site as well as the number of visits a site receives from each origin zip code. With the zonal visitation data, we estimate a multi-site zonal travel cost model following the approach developed by von Haefen et al. for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The zonal model uses on-site sampling and intercept probabilities to estimate rates of visitation from each origin zip code, allowing us to estimate a multi-site recreation demand system with a full set of alternative specific constants (ASCs). This model provides estimates of visitation to each site under unchanged conditions which are then calibrated via contraction maps to estimates of the percentage of visitors who would have still visited the site at which they were intercepted under alternate fire history scenarios. The contingent behavior responses are thus embedded within the demand system and the implied fire preference parameters are estimated using contraction maps. This novel RP/SP estimation procedure allows us to value both site closures and the impacts of fire history on sites after they reopen. Results contribute to forest management when facing increasing threats of site closures by providing insight into potential impacts during and after closures in a popular urban national forest. Of the fire scenarios presented, recent forest fires are the costliest, causing estimated welfare losses of over $2.2 million per summer season for an average affected site. We find that recent forest fires cause larger trip and welfare losses than less recent forest fires or shrub fires, with forest fires decreasing welfare by roughly $29 per lost trip. Applying this method to a large fire that affected many sites in our study area, we illustrate how losses decrease over time, but can continue well after sites are re-opened due to lasting effects on the landscape. Author: Taro Mieno  Abstract: In this study, we will seek to understand the how crop insurance and groundwater allocation limits with temporal flexibility affect agricultural producers’ groundwater use. Groundwater is a vital resource for high-productivity agriculture in U.S. Due to ever growing demand for water in the competing sectors, agricultural producers are under increasing pressure to conserve water. One of the popular policy tools to limit groundwater use is groundwater use quota: allocation limits. Several Natural Resources Districts (NRD) in Nebraska and LEMA region in Kansas has adopted allocation limits to conserve groundwater. Given the high annual variability in precipitation and evapotranspiration, major determinants of crop water demand, allocation limit policies typically have temporal flexibility. That is, instead of setting a hard groundwater extraction cap each year, farmers have a flexibility to satisfy allocation limits over multiple years. For example, Upper Republican NRD has a total of 65 inches per acre over 5 years. Producers are allowed to use however much water they would like in a year as long as the total groundwater extraction does not exceed 65 inches per acre. The problem producers face under such a policy is a dynamic optimization of groundwater use. Presumably, producers should save some water in early years so that they would have enough water to avoid a catastrophic crop failure in later years when a severe drought hits. While it is straightforward to imagine how producers behave under allocation limits with temporal flexibility, it is hard to imagine how allocation limits interacts with crop insurance to affect groundwater use behavior by agricultural producers. Since producers are safeguarded by catastrophic profit loss by crop insurance even when producers run out of allocation in a dry year in the later years, it seems that producers can behave more similarly to the case when there is no allocation limits. The objectives of this study is two-fold: we will seek to examine (1) how irrigation pattern changes within an allocation period and (2) if total water use within an allocation period is greater under crop insurance compared to the case without crop insurance. To achieve this goal, we will employ a numerical dynamic simulation approach based on crop water production function generated by AquaCrop, a crop simulation model. Our preliminary results indicate that producers use more water in early years, and gradually reduces water use on average over the allocation period under crop insurance. On other hand, producers use less water in early years, and gradually increases water use on average over the allocation period without crop insurance. That is, water use pattern within an allocation period reverses when producers are under crop insurance. The impact of crop insurance on water use is mixed: it could either increase or decrease total water use. This study contributes to the literature of crop insurance and water resource economics. Crop insurance is typically evaluated by itself without its potential interactive impacts with other resource use policies. This study is innovative in that we are the first to explore the interaction of a water resource use policy and crop insurance. Waters of the United States: Upgrading wetland valuation via benefit transfer Klaus Moeltner, Jessica Balukas, Elena Besedin, Ben Holland W4133 Objectives: Objective 2-2: Advances in BT Methods Objective 3-3: Economic Analysis of Water Quality Abstract: With this study we respond to the ongoing debate on the legal protection of wetlands, and the concurrent need to understand the societal benefits created by them. Using updated meta-data on wetland valuation we illustrate how a state-of-the-art meta-regression framework that is consistent with economic theory can be adapted to generate benefit transfer predictions for incremental changes in wetland acreage over space and time. We apply this framework to estimate losses in benefits for realistic changes in wetland acreage for some sub-watersheds, as can be expected under the proposed re-definition of the “Waters of the United States” to be protected under the Clean Water Act. Title: Spatial Leakages from Conservation Policies: An Application to the Kansas Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program Authors: Mani Rouhi Rad, Dale Manning, Jordan Suter, Chris Goemans, and Zaichen Xiang W4133 tasks: Task 1-1: Economic Analysis of Agriculture, Forest, and Rangeland Resources, Open Space, and WUI Zones Task 2-3: Advances in Spatial/Environmental Nexus Presenter: Dale Manning Presenter email: dale.manning@colostate.edu Abstract: Conservation incentive programs provide a vital tool for federal policymakers to encourage the country’s agricultural producers to adopt practices and strategies consistent with local and national objectives.  For example, the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP) partners with local managers and regulators to achieve local conservation goals.  CREP in the Arkansas River Basin (ARB) of Kansas aims to reduce groundwater use by paying producers to retire irrigated land.  While the policy prevents GW pumping at the retired wells, the responses of active neighboring wells determine the final impact of the program. In this paper, we examine the spatial leakages around this program, and how they affect the program’s impact over time.  Theoretically, a retired well leads to fewer competitors and decreased pumping at neighboring wells, conditional on water availability.  Yet, less pumping means that more water becomes available over time, leading to an increase in pumping.  Finally, as neighbors adopt conservation behavior, this may lead to a behavioral leakage as others become more conservation minded.  The relative magnitudes of these effects determine the net impact of the program over time.  Therefore, to resolve the theoretical ambiguity, we use well-level data on pumping in the ARB to econometrically identify the spatial leakages associated with CREP.  We begin with a difference -in-difference specification to estimate the impact of CREP enrollment on pumping at wells that remain active.  Next, a model with well fixed effects and time controls allows us to explore the mechanisms driving the spatial leakages.  Finally, to examine the net impact of CREP on GW use over time, we link a MODFLOW model of the ARB with a water demand function to simulate the impact of well retirement on neighboring wells’ water availability and pumping. We find that CREP enrollment causes neighboring wells to pump less water on average, and this holds conditional on water availability.  Further, we find no evidence of a move towards conservation-mindedness.  This suggests that the CREP impact is driven by changes in pumping resulting from fewer competitors using the common property resource.  Simulations using the linked model suggest that the competition effect dominates for X years, beyond which more water availability leads to more pumping than would have happened without the CREP program. This result relates to the W4133 task 1-1 because it provides an economic analysis of agricultural use of a common property resource that creates substantial value for landowners and well operators.  Spatial spillovers from resource management policies has important implications for users of many public and private natural resources, including forests, rangeland, and residential development.  The spatial nature of aquifer resources means that modeling its uses also requires innovations at the spatial/environmental nexus (task 2-3).  Important policy implications include the potential for positive conservation spillovers from programs that reduce competition for shared resources.  In this case, policy goals may be reached at a cheaper cost than anticipated, as private responses have synergies with the direct impact of management programs. Title:  Assistance Needed?  The Willingness to Pay for Flood Insurance Authors:  Noelwah R. Netusil, Carolyn Kousky, and Howard Kunreuther W4133 tasks: Task 1-2; Task 2-1 Presenter: Noelwah R. Netusil Presenter email: netusil@reed.edu Abstract: Flooding is the natural disaster that causes the most property damage in the United States. Federal disaster aid for victims is currently limited, so to rebuild or replace damaged property without either incurring additional debt, drawing down savings, or diverting current consumption, those at risk need flood insurance.  Yet, nationwide, many people forgo flood coverage.  High premiums are likely a key driver of this decision, but the price elasticity of flood insurance has been difficult to estimate empirically due to a number of challenges. These include the following factors: homeowners in high risk areas are mandated to purchase a flood policy if they have a federally insured mortgage, premiums are correlated with risk, and price is not observed for the uninsured. This study draws on contingent valuation methods to elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP) for flood insurance from a sample of residents in two Portland, Oregon neighborhoods at risk of flooding.  We examine how WTP varies with income, risk perceptions, objective risk, previous experience with flooding, and the length of time residing in one’s current home and neighborhood, which relates to W4133 Task 2-1.  We also investigate how participant uncertainty about their responses influences their overall WTP for flood insurance.  Results from this study can inform the ongoing policy debate about whether and how premium assistance should be provided to help encourage the purchase of flood insurance for residents in hazard-prone areas, which is related to W4133 Task 1-2. Title: The Price of Powder: Evidence on the demand for snow from short term property rentals  Authors: Bryan Parthum, Peter Christensen W4133 tasks: <ul> <li>2-1: Advances in Revealed Preference Methods • 1-2: Economic Analysis of Natural Hazards (climate change) • 3-2: Economic Analysis of Recreation Services</li> </ul> Presenter: Bryan Parthum Presenter email: <a href="mailto:parthum2@illinois.edu">parthum2@illinois.edu</a> Abstract: We estimate structural demand parameters for wintertime recreation in 31 destination markets across the contiguous United States. Our first stage introduces a highfrequency hedonic method to instrument for the endogenous price of a short term property rental. By exploiting short-run shocks in weather and recreation demand, we derive hedonic price schedules for 237 ski resort towns and estimate daily state-specific implicit prices for mountain snowpack. We then estimate utility functions for snow tourists in each state. These resulting demand parameters allow us to project damages under two future climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We incorporate snow tourist information to map estimates of willingness to accept to each U.S. state and show that significant heterogeneity exists across states. Lastly, we estimate a lower-bound on total willingness to accept across the U.S. to be between $5.9 to $8.09 billion per snow season due only to reductions in mountain snowpack. Title: Meta-Analysis to compare Certainty Follow-up and Cheap Talk to Reduce Hypothetical Bias Authors: Jerrod Penn-Louisiana State University and Wuyang Hu-Ohio State University W4133 Task: 2-Economic Valuation Methods Presenter: Jerrod Penn Presenter email: jpenn@agcenter.lsu.edu Abstract: Hypothetical Bias (HB) continues to be a major concern among stated preference practitioners (Task 2). Two of the earliest and most popular methods to reduce HB are certainty follow-up and cheap talk. Certainty follow-up reduces HB by asking respondents how certain they are of their answer to the valuation question. Cheap Talk works by explicitly warning respondents about HB and to answer as if it were a real purchase decision. A number of studies have implemented either technique, a hypothetical control elicitation to establish their efficacy relative to an uncorrected hypothetical welfare estimate, as well as a real elicitation to demonstrate their efficacy to reduce actual HB. We use meta-analysis to investigate and compare the relative ability of both approaches using both sets of measures, the ability of certainty follow-up and cheap talk to alter welfare estimates relative to hypothetical control and real welfare estimates. At present, 19 studies certainty follow-up and 30 cheap talk studies meet the requisites for inclusion. Preliminary analysis shows that certainty follow-up is more effective than cheap talk at reducing the welfare estimate relative to hypothetical controls and correspondingly, the extent of HB when comparing against the real elicitation welfare estimates.   Title: WATER AND CONCRETE: COMPLEMENTARITY (NOT SUBSTITUTION) BETWEEN NATURAL AND PRODUCED CAPITAL Authors: Mani Rouhi Rad, Wiktor (Vic) Adamowicz, Alicia Entem, Eli P. Fenichel, and Patrick Lloyd-Smith W4133 Task: Task 2-1: Advances in Stated/Revealed Preference Methods Presenting author: Mani Rouhi Rad Presenting author email: mani.rouhi_rad@colostate.edu Estimating the substitutability of natural capital is important for the valuation of natural capital and the ecosystem services provided. The existing theoretical and empirical literature in natural capital focuses on the substitutability of natural capital and other forms of capital (Hartwick 1977) or the flows of ecosystem services and materials (Cohen et al. 2018) rather than the stock of natural capital. We contribute to natural capital theory and derive conditions under which produced and natural capital are complements. In short, produced capital investment often occurs following a short-run cost curve, because market forces do not lead to increased production of natural capital in order to reach a new point on the long-run cost curve. Natural capital remains quasi-fixed - a defining feature of nature capital and short-run cost curves. This holds despite produced capital investments being made with a relatively long-term planning horizon. We then provide empirical evidence on complementarities between natural capital (fresh water) and produced capital (a new lock system) in the case of the Panama Canal expansion. The Panama Canal consists of two sets of locks (produced capital) that connect Gatun Lake to the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The depth of Gatun Lake provides clearance for ships’ draft and serves as the natural capital for ships passing through the canal. Passage of ships through the locks requires the release of water from the lake (utilization of natural capital). Under the pressure of increasing cargo ship sizes and investments by competitors such as the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal Authority invested in a new path including six new locks that opened in June 2016 to allow the transit of larger ships and water saving basins which reduce the release of water from the Gatun Lake per transit (investment in conservation). We contribute to the literature on the complementarity or substitution between natural and produced capital in two ways. First, we distinguish between the capital space and the utilization space. The literature mostly considers utilization (or flows) of inputs and does not distinguish capital levels (stocks) from flows. We show that stocks and flows may not have the same relationship. We also show that the substitution or complementarity relationship depends on the type of investment. The nature of the relationship is not clear ex-ante. The observed construction of water saving basins leads the water and locks to be complements. We show that without these water saving basins, the natural and produced capital would have been substitutes in capital space. Second, we provide empirical evidence of the complementarity between natural capital and produced capital. The main focus of the natural capital literature has been on substitutability of natural capital and other forms of capital, and Van den Bergh (1999) suggests that finding complementarity will be “very difficult to impossible”. We show that while the investment in produced capital has resulted in substitution in the utilization space, there is complementarity between produced capital and natural capital. Our study contributes to the valuation of natural capital and ecosystem services provided using revealed production decisions of the firm (Task 2-1). Substitution or complementarity of natural and produced capital are critical for such valuations. Our theoretical analysis derives conditions for complementarity and substitution of these two forms of capital and our empirical analysis provides evidence for existence of complementarity between them. Importantly, our study finds that distinction between capital space and flow space is critical for valuation of natural capital and ecosystem services. Investments in produced capital in the form of infrastructure are often used for resource management. Our study sheds light on their effects on the value of natural capital and ecosystem services. Title: Feeling the Burn: The Optimal Timing of Prescribed Fires for Recreational Benefits Authors: Katherine Zipp, Pennsylvania State University; Yau-Huo (Jimmy) Shr, Iowa State University W4133 task: 1-1: Economic Analysis of Agriculture, Forest, and Rangeland Resources, Open Space, and WUI Zones; 3-2: Economic Analysis of Recreation Services Presenter: Yau-Huo (Jimmy) Shr, Iowa State University Presenter email: yhshr@iastate.edu Abstract: Prescribed fire is getting more widely recognized and used in many parts of the United States. Although prescribed fire is an effective approach for fuel reduction and ecosystem restoration, it also comes with concerns such as (short-term) limited forest access and accidental spread. When making decisions about how often to use prescribed fires, public forest managers balance desired ecological and recreational outcomes. However, little is known about the optimal use of prescribed fires to achieve recreational outcomes. In this paper, we fill this gap and make two contributions to the literature in answering the research question: how often should forest managers use prescribed fires to maximize recreational benefits? Our first contribution is that we use a Faustmann model, a long-standing dynamic optimization model for maximizing timber harvest profits, to estimate the optimal prescribed burn interval for maximizing recreational benefits. Our model builds on previous literature, such as Yoder (2004), that considers prescribed fire being used to maximize timber harvest conditional on the potential damage from wildfire. However, we recognize that the majority of prescribed fires occur on public land that is not managed for timber production but rather managed for recreational benefits. Our second contribution is that we estimate a recreational benefit function over time after a fire by coupling recreational welfare estimates with ecological estimates of forest dynamics after a fire. By using an ecological understanding of how various attributes of a forest change over time after a fire, we are able to improve estimation of the benefits that recreationalists receive from forests after a fire (Boxall, Watson, & Englin, 1996; Englin, Boxall, & Hauer, 2000). With these two contributions we are able to better inform management of forest and wildland urban interface (WUI) areas in terms of improving recreation services. In 2017-2018, we conducted intercept surveys of 302 forest users in Central Pennsylvania and the New Jersey Pine Barrens. These two areas provide similar recreation services but have drastically different wildfire hazard. The survey includes a choice experiment to estimate the willingness-to-pay for different forest attributes including wildfire hazard, visibility in forest, and wildlife habitat quality. Travel time required to forest area is used as the cost attribute. To translate travel time into monetary cost, we adopt the approach proposed in Lloyd-Smith, Abbott, Adamowicz, & Willard (2017) to estimate the individual value of leisure time. Using a panel of ecological experts, we model how the three forest attributes change over time after a fire. The net benefit function in the Faustmann model is constructed using the information of individual benefits and the dynamic of forest attributes. The personal discount rate is estimated following the standard approach (Coller & Williams, 1999). Under different model and parameter specifications, the optimal burn intervals are between 5 – 16 and 19 – 33 years in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, respectively. These estimates are in line with the optimal burn interval when solely considering ecosystems (5 – 10 years for NJ and 20 – 30 years for PA), but are greater than the optimal interval considered by fire managers. The results also shed light on the willingness-to-pay for the selected forest conditions and associated heterogeneity between two regions. In addition, our survey results provide one of the first assessments of the citizen perceptions of prescribed fires in the Mid-Atlantic region. Title: A Physical Input-Output Table (PIOT) model of Illinois for estimating Life Cycle Environmental Impacts of Nitrogen Emissions Authors: Shweta Singh W4133 task: 2-1: Advances in Stated/Revealed Preference Methods Presenter: Shweta Singh Presenter email: singh294@purdue.edu Abstract: Input-Output (IO) models allow to calculate total life cycle economic and environmental impacts of production in an economic region. Current methods of economic evaluation fail to capture the full cost of ecosystem services contribution due to limited models that capture the interdependence of economic sectors in physical units. Developing physical input-output table (PIOT) based models allow to capture this physical interdependence between economic sectors in a region. In this work, a PIOT model for Illinois capturing the interactions between agrobased sectors has been developed. The PIOT model captures the physical interactions between sectors in terms of Nitrogen flows. An environmentally extended PIOT is also developed that connects the production in sectors with nitrogen emissions in the state, thus allowing to calculate the total direct and indirect impact of production in the state of Illinois on nitrogen emissions. This physical model can form a basis of economic valuation of nitrogen related ecosystem services using cost of nitrogen emissions in the region. The reliability of the direct and indirect impact estimation is improved as the physical model is based on mass balances that ensures the accuracy of intersectoral dependence. Hence, PIOTs can provide an advancement to improve the accuracy of economic valuations. Title: Assessing the private and social benefits of forest concessions in the Maya Biosphere Reserve Authors: Corinne Bocci, Brent Sohngen and Daniela Miteva W4133 task: Task 2-3: Advances in Spatial/Environmental Nexus Presenter: Brent Sohngen Presenter email: Sohngen.1@osu.edu Abstract: While forests provide multiple ecosystem services, it is often difficult to measure their amenity and private values. If land markets are efficient and property rights are well-defined, the private benefits of maintaining forest cover, such as harvesting timber and non-timber forest products, will be captured through market transactions.  In many developing regions, however, property rights are not well-defined and there is limited information on private forest values. Additionally, the value of the many ecosystem services that forests provide to the benefit of society is often not quantified and monetized. To promote local conservation of forest stocks, some developing country governments have provided local community groups with property or land-use rights if they agree to manage forest resources sustainably. Community-based common-property resource (CPR) management systems follow the advice of Gordon (1954) and Scott (1955), who recommended privatizing the resource to reduce over-extraction, but rights are vested with groups rather than single individuals or entities. Most efforts to date to assess community-based tropical forest management strategies have focused on whether the projects have physically reduced deforestation.  Few studies have evaluated whether households involved in managing the resource benefit from the arrangement, and whether there are tradeoffs with providing other ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration. To address this issue, this study evaluates whether households benefit from community-based forest concessions in the Maya Biosphere Reserve in Guatemala, and whether the arrangement increases carbon in the foersts. The household-level benefits are measured as the increase in income gained by community members involved in managing the concessions when their efforts to exert property rights and manage the landscape sustainably are successful.  The broader global benefits are the gains in carbon stored due to avoided deforestation. To calculate the household-level benefits, we use a dataset collected from households in the Maya Biosphere Reserve in 2012 and 2017 and a two-stage least squares, instrumental variable approach to estimate the effect of concession membership on household income.  We calculate the gains in carbon sequestration using a matched panel of concession areas and similar non-concession areas within the reserve. The results show that the value of forest concession management in the Maya Biosphere Reserve from 2012 to 2017 is about $17,166,005.  Most of this benefit is obtained privately by households, which suggests that common-property resource management systems can result in significant welfare gains for households that manage forests. This study advances the literature in Task 2-3, Advances in Spatial/Environmental Nexus, in the W4133 project by developing methods to value the private and public benefits of a common-property resource management system. One contribution is that we use rigorous impact evaluation methods to determine whether the concessions are effective at reducing deforestation and increasing household income and compare the value of the additional forest carbon sequestered as a result of deforestation reduction and household income benefits to an estimate of concession implementation costs. Another contribution is that we highlight where trade-offs and complementarities between the ecosystem services exist and whether this effect varies based on the characteristics of the concession communities.  We find that, for households with forest-based histories, concessions increase the amount of forest carbon sequestered and increase concession member income.  However, for concessions managed by households from larger towns and cities, our results show that they are receiving the largest income benefit, but are deforesting areas with higher carbon sequestration values.  Nevertheless, our overall results suggest that the community-based forest management in the Maya Biosphere Reserve is an effective conservation and development strategy. Title: Pursuit of Independence: A study into the households’ willingness to pay for reducing dependence on the local grid for electricity.  Authors: Dilek Uz, Katie Champaigne W4133 task: Task 2-1: Advances in Stated/Revealed Preference Methods Presenter: Dilek Uz Presenter email: dilekuz@unr.edu Abstract Deployment of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) panels have skyrocketed in the recent years in the US. In 2016 alone, PV market grew by 97 %, with more than 370,000 individual installations. Currently more than 40 states have regulatory settings in which a utility customer can get compensated for their exports into the electricity grid (unused portion of their electricity generation sourced by their rooftop solar panels.) Also in many states with renewable portfolio standards (RPS) customers get rebates on solar panel purchases while the local utility gets to count the generated electricity towards RPS compliance. At the federal level, residential solar panels are incentivized by a 30% investment tax credit. The justification for these policies is the public good nature of the environmental services associated with reducing consumption of electricity from the local grid, the majority of which is sourced from fossil fuels. Having rooftop solar panels also provide various private benefits to the owners. They include savings on power bill, warm-glow, signaling environmental preferences (due to the conspicuous nature of owning solar panels), and the feeling of reduced dependence on the grid. In this study, we design an online choice experiment to measure the willingness to pay for each of these attributes. Respondents, who are chosen from certain demographic groups, are offered a set of binary and trinary choices. Options are (i) “Default option” (i.e. fully relying on the local electricity supplier with the conventional fuel mix); (ii)“Green pricing” (i.e. still purchasing all electricity from the grid but paying a premium for an increased share of renewables); and (iii) “Solar panels” (i.e. installing a rooftop solar panel and using the electricity generated by the panel and supplementing from the grid when necessary). There are many studies in the environmental economics literature that study the willingness to pay for renewable energy (e.g. (e.g. Roe et al. (2001), Borchers et al. (2007), Scarpa and Willis (2010)). Recent studies that review the literature include Oerlemans et al. (2016) and Sundt and Rehdanz (2015). A small share of this literature focuses on rooftop solar panels (e.g. Soskin and Squires (2013), Su et al. (2018)) To our knowledge, this is the first study that looks at willingness to pay for reduced dependence on the local electric grid as an attribute. Rooftop solar companies’ sales pitches are known to include the rhetoric that utility companies are monopolies who overcharge for their services and owning solar panels will deliver redemption from them.4 . According to Triandis et al. (1990), being independent is one of the top American values and the solar rooftop sales people seem to be appealing to that. The goal of this study is to quantify this value. Additionally, we look at the heterogeneity of this value with respect to demographic variables as well as political affiliation. The results of this study will inform policy makers on the appropriate incentive levels for rooftop solar panel deployment. High willingness to pay for private benefits would imply that consumers would still purchase with lower incentives which would save tax payer money. Title: Estimating a Demand Curve for Land Conservation Authors: Alex Blanchette, Corey Lang, Michelle Peach, Jarron VanCeylon W4133 task: Task 1-1: Economic analysis of Agriculture, Forest, and Rangeland Resources, Open Space, and WUI Zones Presenter: Jarron VanCeylon Presenter email: jvanceylon@uri.edu Abstract: Long periods of urban expansion have resulted in the significant loss of open space (US Forest Service 2019). Open space provides benefits to individuals and neighborhoods, from recreational and visual amenities to other ecosystem services like air and water quality (Irwin 2002, Anderson and West 2006, US Forest Service).  As a result, permanently protecting open space is a priority for local, state, and federal governments and NGOs. However, conserving land is costly, and in many cases the benefits of conservation are unknown or are imprecise. In this paper we examine the effects of open space on housing values across numerous markets in an effort to construct a demand curve for protected open space. Several studies (e.g., Boyle et al. 1999, Netusil et al. 2010, Mei et al. 2017) have used multiple markets to estimate a demand function for an environmental amenity. However, the geographic scale of our data is considerably larger than prior work. We collect housing and population data and land cover data from 214 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) in the Eastern half of the United States. Housing and population data come from the American Community Survey and are collected at the census block group level, the finest scale publicly available. Land cover data come from the USGS Land Use Land Cover database, USGS elevation rasters, and USGS Protected Areas Database. From these data, we discern protected and unprotected open space, steeply sloped land, and natural inland water features. Our method involves a two stage framework. The first stage estimates marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) of protected open space for each MSA separately using hedonic valuation. Our specification controls for unprotected open space, a large number of housing and demographic variables, and county fixed effects and quadratic functions of latitude and longitude to guard against spatial unobservables that could be correlated with housing prices and open space. In the second stage, we estimate an inverse demand curve for protected open space by comparing MWTP estimates and geographic and population characteristics across all MSAs. Specifically, we regress estimated MWTP on the quantity of protected open space, average income, and geographic determinants of undevelopable land. Our first stage results are consistent with previous literature and indicate positive housing premiums associated with proximity to open space. For example, a 1% increase in protected open space is associated with a 0.18% increase in housing prices in the New York City MSA. However, there is considerable heterogeneity in valuation, the 25th and 75th percentiles for estimated MWTP are about $100 and $1000, respectively. In the second stage, we seek to explain that variation in valuation by estimating an inverse demand curve and including multiple shifters of demand. Consistent with expectations, we find that demand slopes downward: a one standard deviation increase in protected open space decreases MWTP $42. We also find that protected open space is a normal good, a one standard deviation increase in average income increases MWTP by $134. Lastly, we include undevelopable area as an additional demand shifter, with the idea that naturally occurring undevelopable area is a substitute to preserved open space. We split undevelopable area into steeply sloped land and water/wetlands, and find that these geographic features have opposite effects on MWTP – steeply sloped land does act as a substitute, but water and wetlands act as a complement. Title: A Bayesian Model for Small Discrete Choice Samples  Authors: Lendie Follett, Brian Vander Naald W4133 task: 2-1 Presenter: Brian Vander Naald Presenter email: brian.vandernaald@drake.edu Abstract Task 2-1: Bayesian estimation has been used in the environmental economics literature to analyze discrete choice data. Train (2003) popularized the Bayesian technique for choice data. Rigby and Burton (2006) employed a Bayesian bounded logit model with an inverse Wishart prior on the variance to estimate a WTP value for genetically modified food. Balcombe et al. (2009) also use an inverse Wishart prior to investigate attribute non-attendance using choice experiment data examining beef produced from stem cell technology. Recently, Akinc and Vandebroek (2018) developed a Bayesian mixed logit model in which they noted that choice of prior in Bayesian estimation is important. They note that use of the inverse Wishart prior on the variance is inappropriate because it exerts too much influence on the results. They use an uninformative prior (LKJ) developed by Lewandowski et al. (2009), which has desirable properties. While they test this model with a large simulated dataset, they do not test it with actual data. We extend their work here, developing a Bayesian mixed logit model using the LKJ prior on the variance to extract inference from a small dataset from choice experiment data gathered in 2015. We estimate posterior probabilities for willingness to pay for reducing the rate of glacier recession, and examine variation in WTP based on sociodemographic differences. To our knowledge, this is the first Bayesian study in the WTP literature to focus on extracting inference from small discrete choice samples. This model is potentially very useful, as it could reduce the cost of conducting discrete choice studies. We develop a data driven Bayesian framework for the estimation of mixed logit models for small discrete choice samples. In this framework, we build upon past research by incorporating demographics into the mean of the distribution of individuallevel preferences. For the covariance matrix on individual-level preferences, we note issues with the traditionally used inverse Wishart prior. We instead propose a prior on the covariance matrix that allows one to specify independent prior distributions on the correlation matrix and the standard deviations. We propose the use of the LKJ prior for correlation matrices in conjunction with the half Cauchy distribution for standard deviations as a way to be able to accommodate a wide variety of data-generating patterns. We test the model using choice experiment data gathered in 2015 examining preferences for reducing the rate at which glacier ice is disappearing. 166 surveys were administered, 149 were completed, and after quality control measures were taken, 126 usable surveys remained. Of the 126 reliable surveys, 37 saw four choice scenarios and 89 saw two choice scenarios. Respondent characteristics were similar to those of other visitors during that time. To examine WTP differences along sociodemographic margins, the sample was further limited to those who provided answers for political preferences, sex, and environmental organization membership. After this final sample reduction, we are down to 98 respondents. Results indicate that the mean monthly WTP for 0.15km3 rate of glacier loss is substantially higher than the WTP for 0.20km3 rate of glacier loss ($149 versus $24). Further, there is a 90% posterior probability that WTP for 0.15km3 rate of glacier loss exceeds zero, compared to a 63% posterior probability that WTP for 0.20km3 rate of glacier loss exceeds zero. These WTP values differ by political preference, membership in an environmental organization, and sex. Females are WTP more for both rates of glacier loss than their male counterparts, regardless of political preference, environmental organizational membership status. On the other hand, females are substantially less likely than their male counterparts to choose an alternative if it uses an insulated ice blanket to achieve a given level of glacier loss. Title: Spatial and Temporal Dimensions of the Value of Coastal Recreational Fishing in US Waters Authors: Alexandra Naumenko and Roger H. von Haefen, North Carolina State University W4133 Objectives: Obj 2: Economic Valuation Methods, Task 2-2: Advances in Benefit Transfer Methods, Task 2-3: Advances in Spatial/Environmental Nexus; Obj 3: Integrated Ecosystem Services Valuation and Management, Task 3-2: Economic Analysis of Recreation Services Presenter: von Haefen Presenter Email: rhhaefen@ncsu.edu Abstract: The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently estimated that the outdoor recreation economy contributed 2.2% to Gross Domestic Product and was growing slightly faster than the overall U.S. economy.  Similarly, Siikimaki (2007) found that outdoor recreation time use has roughly doubled over the past four decades but has remained relatively flat in the 21st century.  However, how the nonmarket value, or consumer surplus, of outdoor recreation has changed over time as well as across space remains poorly understood.  The current paper aims to fill this gap in the literature by examining trends in the per trip value of coastal recreational fishing over a thirteen-year period from Maine to Louisiana (Task 2-3).  Leveraging data from NOAA’s Marine Recreational Information Program (MRIP) for approximately 300,000 shoreline angling trips to sites along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts from 2004 to 2016 (Task 3-2), we estimate how the value of a coastal recreational trip varies across time and space.  A repeated discrete choice model of recreational participation and site choice is estimated separately by region (New England, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Florida and Gulf Coast) and two-month period, and per trip values of lost trips are calculated.  Our results suggest considerable within-year heterogeneity, but surprising homogeneity across years.  The per trip value of recreational fishing was largely unaffected by the Great Recession, although using an internal meta-regression analysis, we find suggestive evidence that per trip values have increased modestly during the recent expansion.  Further, our results reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity across the United States, with angling trips in the Southeast having the highest economic value.  Collectively, these results deepen our understanding of the temporal and spatial dimensions of recreational angling and may assist government agencies working in sparse data environments when transferring benefit estimates from one region and point in time to another (Task 2-2). Title: The Impact of Drought on Crime in South Africa Authors: Kyle Wilson W4133 task: Task 1-2: Economic Analysis of Natural Hazards (fire, invasive species, climate change) Presenter: Kyle Wilson Presenter email: kylew@uoregon.edu Abstract All societies rely on water as an essential input for life and economic activity. Droughts and other negative shocks to the water supply may contribute to negative societal outcomes such as crime. This paper tests one channel through which drought affects social outcomes: crime. Specifically, I estimate the effect of South Africa’s recent extreme drought (2015–2018) on crime. Using a police-station by year panel, I exploit variation in the timing of droughts and water management policies to explain changes in crime. I find that violent crimes increase by 10%, police-detected crimes fall by 20%, and that there is no discernible impact on sex crimes or property crimes. These findings suggest that in the future, especially as severe droughts become more prevalent due to climate change, crime prevention may be an important component of climate policy. Title: Groundwater Use in Agriculture Accounting for Aquifer Flow Dynamics: An Analytical Model of Mississippi Delta Authors: Kalyn Coatney, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University; Seong Yun, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University W4133 task: Obj 1: Land and Water Resource Management in a Changing Environment, Task 1-1: Economic Analysis of Agriculture, Forest, and Rangeland Resources, Open Space, and WUI Zones Presenter: Seong Yun, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University Presenter email: seong.yun@msstate.edu Abstract: Irrigation is becoming increasingly important to Southeastern crop production. The increased demand and high prices for water-intensive crops (i.e., corn and soybeans) have led more irrigation and higher competition for groundwater. Unlike drylands in the US, the Southeast regions are known for abundant rainfalls. While annual rainfall totals are relatively high in the Southeast, most of the rainfall occurs during the winter months while precipitation during the growing season is often inadequate. Besides, the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer (MRVAA) covering the large portion of the Southeast is shallow and has long been observed that the water level of MRVAA is steadily declining. Some Southeast regions have been experienced depletion of groundwater and the tragedy of commons in groundwater is expected to be worsened under climate change and variability. Due to high concern on efficient groundwater management, economic models of groundwater management including aquifer flow dynamics have been studied well in the regions such as Ogallala Aquifer or aquifers in California. These models are, however, not sufficient enough to explain groundwater issues in MRVAA due to the two significant differences in groundwater flow dynamics. First, the MRVAA is a shallow aquifer with a relatively fast recharge rate. Because of the soils in MRVAA are composed of heavy clay, relatively little recharge can be attributed to percolation. Instead, rivers and streams provide most of the recharge relatively quickly from the side of this shallow aquifer. Second, the MRVAA is not a static aquifer, but appears to have some flow dynamics. From geo-survey, it turns out that the MRVAA generally flows from north to south. Because of the spatial and flow dynamics, producer wells located sequentially along the general flow creates an assignment problem. Producers located at the northern end of the MRVAA’s natural recharge entry point experience higher recharge rates than those to the south and central regions. Reflecting these flow dynamics specific to the MRVAA, this study contributes to the literature by suggesting a bathtub model with spatially varying recharge rate with shallow aquifer structure. The proposed model is a discrete space and time dynamic optimization model to maximize the net benefit of agricultural production with irrigation subject to the flow dynamics of groundwater. The state equation of water level includes the unidirectional spatial dependence (North to South) recharge rate and extraction. This study first derived the analytical solution and economic implication of the given structure. Using the six producers’ simulation, this study numerically demonstrated how the downstream producers are disadvantageous in groundwater use due to their location. Also, this study showed how cheap altruism or falsely targeted regulation reached to faster and more worsened over-extraction.

Impact Statements

Virginia Tech: Klaus Moeltner presented Free-form choice experiment: The project PI (Rob Johnston, Clark U.) includes insights from focus group meetings and model developments at a PI meeting organized by EPA to a mixed audience of peers, agencies, and practitioners.

Date of Annual Report: 01/01/1970

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 02/20/2019 - 02/22/2019
Period the Report Covers: 01/01/1970 - 01/01/1970

Participants

Brief Summary of Minutes

Accomplishments

Publications

Impact Statements

Date of Annual Report: 03/17/2020

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 02/12/2020 - 02/14/2020
Period the Report Covers: 03/01/2019 - 02/29/2020

Participants

Participants:
Nino Abashidze Georgia Tech University
Jude Bayham Colorado State University
John Bergstrom University of Georgia
Xiang Bi University of Florida
Luke Boutwell Mather Economics
Nick Bradley University of Georgia
Jesse Burkhardt Colorado State University
Fayu Chong University of Georgia
Steve Dundas Oregon State University
Susana Ferriera University of Georgia
Tony Good US Geological Survey
Ben Gramig University of Illinois
Yukiko Hashida University of Georgia
Joonghyun Hwang Florida Fish & Wildlife
Matt Interis Mississippi State University
Paul Jakus Utah State University
Chian Jones Ritten University of Wyoming
Sonja Kolstoe Salisbury State University
Elena Krasovskaia University of Georgia
Craig Landry University of Georgia
Corey Lang University of Rhode Island
Young Lee University of Tennessee
Lynne Lewis Bates College
Matt Lindsay Mather Economics
Luanne Lohr US Forest Service
Frank Lupi Michigan State University
Dale Manning Colorado State University
Don McLeod University of Wyoming
Klaus Moeltner Virginia Tech University
Jeff Mullen University of Georgia
Nannette Nelson University of Montana
Kehinde Ojo University of Georgia
Bryan Parthum University of Illinois
Lee Parton Boise St University
Jerrod Penn Louisiana State University
Dan Petrolia Mississippi State University
Rachel Pless University of Georgia
Mani Rouhi Rad Clemson University
Matthew Sloggy Colorado State University
Laura O. Taylor Georgia Tech University
Dylan Turner University of Georgia
Brian vander Naald Drake University
Roger von Haefen NC State University
Mike Weir University of Rhode Island
Ken White Utah State University
John Whithead Appalachian State University
Matt Wibbenmeyer Resources of the Future
Beomseuk Yoon University of Georgia
Seong Yun Mississippi State University
Mohammadreza Zarie University of Georgia

Brief Summary of Minutes

Brief summary of minutes of annual meeting:

Current President Craig Landry called the meeting to order at 5:40 pm.

First order of business was to determine a new Secretary, whose term begins in 2021, and who follows a three-year cycle continuing on to Vice-President and President in the two subsequent years.
- Paul Jakus nominated Xiang Bi; seconded by Matt Interis and Craig Landry.
- Xiang Bi agreed to stand.
- There were no additional nominations and Xiang Bi was installed by unanimous vote.

Paul Jakus notes format in 2019 was preferable - with 15 minutes discussion at end of each session. Klaus Moeltner suggests leaving it to President to decide format. Frank Lupi suggested 15 minute discussion session would need to be moderated well to succeed. Suggestions were noted by the group.

Suggested that next meeting focuses on arranging talks and sessions according to project goals for re-charter year – priority for papers to match to project goals.

Re-charter needs to begin next year.

Current Vice-President Matthew Interis proposed Memphis, TN as the site of the 2021 meeting and others seemed agreeable to this suggestion.

At the conclusion of this meeting, Craig Landry concludes his three-year officer rotation (thank you, Craig!), Matthew Interis rotates from Vice-President to President, Steve Dundas rotates from Secretary to Vice-President, and Xiang Bi begins her term as Secretary.

The meeting was adjourned at 5:55 pm.

Accomplishments

Accomplishments   Objective 1   Colorado State University: In this area, we have completed projects examining the value of groundwater to agricultural producers across the US, the distributional costs of water infrastructure in the arid west and the role of the weather in influencing municipal water use. We have also collaborated with agronomists to create a biophysical-economic model that can describe the conditions in which deficit irrigation can be an optimal response to water scarcity. Finally, we have worked with engineers to examine household willingness to pay for improved water access in developing country settings, with an application in Rwanda. In addition to published papers, we have completed and submitted two journal articles in this area, both to the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. In the first, we examine how crop insurance subsidies have influenced groundwater use and levels in Kansas and Nebraska.  We find that subsidized irrigated insurance increases groundwater use, but that subsidizing non-irrigated production has the opposite effect.  This suggests that insurance pricing can be used to align with water conservation objectives. In the other submitted paper (R&R), we test for the existence of spatial spillovers from a land retirement program in Kansas (the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program in the Upper Arkansas River Basin). We find that retiring nearby wells reduces competition and leads to lower groundwater use in the short-run from wells that continue to pump.   Oregon State University: Dundas and Lewis published a paper estimating non-market benefits for erosion protection and potential for spillover effects in Oregon’s coastal housing market that can help inform better decision-making and policies for communities to adapt to climate change. Lewis and a collaborator published a paper quantifying the effect of climate change and carbon pricing on adaptation behavior of private forest owners in US Pacific coast. The paper simulates land-use changes to the composition of forests and results suggest that climate change induces landowners to adapt away from current species to those more suitable for future climates. Lewis and collaborators have a paper forthcoming for publication that examines how climate adaptation using forest management will affect wildlife habitat for species of conservation concern along the Pacific coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California. The paper examines how adaptation to climate change and a carbon price alter wildlife habitat through the altering of forest harvest rotations and the types of forests that are replanted. Lewis and collaborators published a paper examining how economic loss from an aquatic species invasion of a freshwater lake is allocated between users of the lake itself and users of neighboring lakes in northern Wisconsin. Results suggest that coordinated management across lakes provides its highest economic value in the early years of an invasion, before high-value, high-traffic lakes are invaded, and drops quickly once the invasion claims these lakes.   University of Florida: Supervised one undergraduate student intern on publication of undergraduate research based on research supported by the W4133 project.  <ul> <li>Hollander. 2020. “Understanding Public Attitudes towards Partial Restoration of the Ocklawaha River.” Journal of Undergraduate Research, University of Florida. Faculty mentor: Xiang Bi.</li> </ul> Presented research supported by W4133 project at academic conference: <ul> <li>Pengfei Liu, Xiang Bi, Qi Luo, and John Whitehead. Paper. Impact of Policy Consequentiality and Voluntary Donation on Contingent Valuation: Structural Estimation on Preference Misrepresentation. Southern Economics Association, Fort Lauderdale, FL. Nov 23-25, 2019</li> </ul>   University of Georgia: In a study of the demand for National Park visits in the U.S., we used a first-difference econometric model to estimate an aggregate demand model for assessing the determinants of the quantity of visits to 47 national parks in the continental United States. The estimated model was then used to project visitation to these parks from the 2016 base year to 2026. Studies were conducted on the economic effects of rising sea levels on growing coastal populations at the land-sea interface. To stabilize upland and protect human developments from coastal hazards, landowners commonly emplace hard armoring structures, such as bulkheads and revetments, along estuarine shorelines. The ecological and economic consequences of shoreline armoring have garnered significant attention; however, few studies have examined the extent of hard armoring or identified drivers of hard armoring patterns at the individual landowner level across large geographical areas. This study addresses this knowledge gap by using a fine-scale census of hard armoring along the entire Georgia U.S. estuarine coastline.  We developed a parsimonious statistical model that accurately predicts the probability of armoring emplacement at the parcel level based on a set of environmental and socioeconomic variables.   University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign: Gramig published a national county-level open source data set with Prof. Seong Yun from Mississippi State for researchers and practitioners constructed from multiple publicly available datasets that are difficult for many practitioners and researchers to access unless they have technical computing and data processing skills. Agro-Climatic Data by County (ACDC) is available for download: <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.4231%2FR72F7KK2&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNFaSxyIWqXY2FB4LB3VN0pXrooVyw">dx.doi.org/10.4231/R72F7KK2</a> Ando and social scientists at UIUC worked with scholars at the Northern Research Station of the USDA Forest Service, the Center for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research in the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, and other departments at UIUC on a co-authored paper published in Landscape and Urban Planning. Their work identifies the tradeoffs people are willing to make between elements of a community’s future growth trajectory in parts of Illinois and Iowa. They find that people are willing to accept more unemployment in exchange for protecting agricultural lands and opportunities for recreation, but respondents did not have strong preferences for increased bison populations in the grasslands nearby. Ando and graduate student Liqing Li analyzed the impact of bison restoration on local economies and presented that work several times. Gramig worked with doctoral student Hsin-Chieh Hsieh at UIUC, Prof. Michael Delgado at Purdue University and Prof. Shanxia Sun at Shanghai University to evaluate the impact of USDA conservation program expenditures by EQIP and CSP on ambient water quality in the Wabash (Indiana) and Illinois River basins. A working paper on the Wabash work is being finalized for submission, and different methods and empirical approaches are being explored for the Illinois work. Gramig began new work with graduate student Menglin Liu and Prof. Nick Paulson at UIUC to investigate the relationship between adoption of precision agriculture technologies/practices and conservation practices. Ando received an invitation to revise and resubmit a manuscript to Land Economics that informs management of flood hazards. She uses a contingent valuation survey to evaluate homeowner willingness to pay for a novel pre-flood agreement such that the homeowner pre-commits to relocating if a flood damages their home by more than 50% of its value, in exchange for which they gain an expedited and streamlined buyout process with payment equal to the full market value of their home. The study finds that nearly all homeowners would gain value from being able to enter into such a contract. Ando worked with graduate student Liqing Li to estimate the impact of bison restoration on local economic activity in the U.S. They have drafted a manuscript on this research.   University of Maine: To improve understanding of land management decisions and conservation opportunities on private lands, economists from University of Maine continued to worked collaboratively with ecologists and stakeholders to research landowners’ land management actions, communities’ economic development plans, and the potential for improved vernal pool conservation outcomes. During this reporting period, we published research of these collaborations aimed at supporting future collaborative research efforts. By studying the development of a mechanism for conserving vernal pool ecosystems, we found that four factors helped overcome common challenges to acting upon new information: creating a culture of learning, coproducing policy simulations that acted as boundary objects, integrating research into solution development, and employing an adaptive management approach (Levesque, Calhoun, Bell, 2019). These results suggest economics-based policy simulations of land management decisions and landscape change can offer useful support to interdisciplinary and engaged research and policy initiatives. Working with researchers from The Ohio State University, University of Connecticut, and James Madison University, University of Maine economists also contributed to interdisciplinary research of forest management decisions. This ongoing work examines the potential importance of cross-scale (global, regional, state, local) interactions and regional context as mechanisms for enabling or constraining management decisions on private forest landholdings (Munroe et al., 2019).   University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Published paper “The impact of land cover on groundwater recharge in the High Plains: An application to the Conservation Reserve Program”. The paper analyzes net groundwater recharge from alternative land covers using data from Kansas and Nebraska. Results show that land cover associated with land retirement programs (e.g., grassland) are associated with lower groundwater recharge rates than crop cover in some locations.   Utah State University: Obj. 1, Task 1-1: A major study on the economic effects of landscape-scale national monuments across five western states was completed and published in a major environmental economics journal. The study's overall conclusion is that designation of large National Monuments (totaling 10 monuments in six western states) has resulted in no statistically measurable effect on per capita income in counties where NMs are located. This finding runs counter to the common economic arguments used in lobbying both for and against large NMs. Arguments for or against large NMs should not be based on economic outcomes and should be shifted to other concerns.  Obj. 1, Task 1-2: a study of the effects of wildfire on Utah's five national parks was completed and published in a refereed journal. The study documented that sensitivity of national park visitation differs according to the timing of wildfires and the park itself. In Utah, visitation to Bryce Canyon National Park fell by only a small percentage in response to wildfire. However, BCNP has a large visitor base, so the drop in number of visits due to proximate wildfire was quite large.         University of Wyoming: Project: “Investigating Potential Impacts of Non-Attainment Risk on Conservation Exchange Outcomes.” Hansen, K. (PI), Co-PIs: C. Jones-Ritten, C. Bastian, A. Nagler.  Amount Requested: $74,317.  Submitted 9/30/2015.  Duration of Project: January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2018. (grant completed). Milestones: Research completed for grant regarding habitat conservation markets using experimental economics methods. Activities: <ol> <li>Economic Experiments conducted and analysis completed. Presentation made at Center for Behavioral, and Experimental Agroenvironmental Research Conference.  Paper submitted to Environmental and Resource Economics.  Published in spring 2019.</li> </ol>   Lamb, K.*, K. Hansen, C. T. Bastian, C. Jones Ritten, and A. Nagler, “Investigating Potential Impacts of Credit Failure Risk Mitigation on Habitat Exchange Outcomes.”  Environmental and Resource Economics. 73,3(2019): 815-842. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-019-00332-z">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-019-00332-z</a>  Conference on Behavioral and Experimental Agri-Environmental Research Special Issue.  Abstract:   Voluntary, market-based conservation programs are one tool available to land managers and regulators to maintain and enhance environmental resources. One such program type is a habitat exchange, through which a private landowner sells conservation to developers to offset a disturbance on the landscape. Since landowner participation is voluntary, price and contract terms must be sufficiently appealing to induce participation. Moreover, the post-production risk of credit failure— the risk that conservation credits fail to maintain measurable habitat improvements over their contract life—may be significant for landowners. In the absence of sufficient real-world data for conventional econometric analysis, we implement a laboratory market experiment to assess the impact of market structure, credit failure risk, and a potential reimbursement policy on habitat exchange outcomes (market price, quantity traded, earnings, and efficiency). Findings suggest that failure risk significantly reduces habitat credit production and trade in this market environment, putting the potential success of such emerging markets in question. A private party risk mitigation strategy of buyers reimbursing sellers for production costs on failed units could mitigate these impacts. Specifically, reimbursing sellers for production costs on credits that fail to maintain habitat quality for their contract life can significantly mitigate reductions in conservation production resulting from this risk. <ol start="2"> <li>A second outreach publication for this project has been drafted based on the research reported in the above article and has received reviews, been revised and is currently in press for publication in 2020. </li> </ol> Lamb, Karsyn, Kristiana Hansen, Christopher Bastian, Amy Nagler, and Chian Jones Ritten.  “Credit Failure Risk in Market-Based Conservation Programs: What is it and Can it Be Helped?”  pp. 1-16. Bulletin B-XXX. Cooperative Extension Service, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Wyoming, Laramie. (Currently in Press for 2020).     <ol start="3"> <li>We have conducted an additional set of up experimental sessions investigating the potential for an insurance product to address landowner risk in the habitat exchange market. Those experiments should be finished this spring.  </li> <li>Analysis of the data has been conducted, and a selected paper with these preliminary results was presented at the meetings 019 Western Agricultural Economics Association meetings held June 30-July2. </li> <li>Hansen, C. Jones-Ritten, A. Nagler and C. Bastian, “A Laboratory Comparison of Risk Mitigation Strategies in Conservation Markets.” Selected Paper Presentation. 2019 Western Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting. June 30-July 2, 2019. Coeur d’Alene, ID (Presented by K. Hansen). </li> <li>Further analyses were conducted and the presentation updated and presented at the W4133 meeting held February 12-14. K. Hansen, C. Jones-Ritten, A. Nagler and C. Bastian, “A Laboratory Comparison of Risk Mitigation Strategies in Conservation Markets.”</li> </ol>   Project: “Incentivizing Open Spaces in Wyoming to Promote Pollinator Habitat: Applying Agglomeration Bonuses to Unite Fragmented Habitat” Milestones: Research completed regarding pollinator habitat policy design using experimental economics methods.  Paper published in October of 2019. Activities: <ol> <li>Panchalingam*, T., C. Jones Ritten, J. F. Shogren, M. D. Ehmke, C. T. Bastian, and G. M. Parkhurst. “Adding Realism to the Agglomeration Bonus: How Endogenous Land Returns Affect Habitat Fragmentation,” Ecological Economics. 164(October 2019): doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106371 .</li> </ol>   Virginia Tech: Bayesian Nonlinear Meta-Regression I developed a new econometric approach to process meta-data on water quality and wetland conservation, as used by the EPA for decision-making. This mode satisfies important theoretical and practical considerations, such as sensitivity to scope (higher willingness to pay (WTP) for better quality), and adding-up (total WTP for the change is not sensitive to the number of increments for implementation.)  Over the last reporting year I applied this model to the valuation of wetland, and important component of the Clean Water Act. My modeling framework was subsequently used by the EPA to feed into the current revision of the CWA rule-making with respect to isolated wetlands across the nation's watersheds.   Coastal flood risk: I developed a new econometric approach (Bayesian matching estimator) to estimate the loss in home values from being located in a special flood hazard area. This model is less sensitive to misspecification errors, and widely applicable to other real-estate valuation contexts. I am currently applying this framework to several counties in Massachusetts. Comparing interior to coastal flood risk effects for the same county will allow for the determination of coastal "amenity" effects, which are otherwise difficult to control for.   Free-form choice experiments: I developed the econometric framework to analyze the data to be expected from the large-scale watershed improvement survey in New England. The highlight of the statistical model is that it allows for variable uncertainty and model-averaging. This is important given the large number of candidate explanatory variables that could explain a household's response to the binary (yes/no) willingness-to-pay question collected in the survey. Over this past project year I applied the model to actual watershed quality data, using simulated household locations. The model performed well in these simulations. It is ready to be applied to actual survey data, to be collected in spring 2020.   Objective 2   Colorado State University: We have completed a draft of a manuscript that proposes a stated preference method for linking a valuation function to a model of a natural system in order to examine the impacts of USDA policy on natural capital values. We apply this to the valuation of the CREP program in KS and its impact on market and non-market groundwater values.  The paper, currently resubmitted to the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, proposes a method for using variation in starting-point exposure to an environmental good to estimate a marginal willingness to pay function.   Louisiana State University: In collaboration with Ohio State University, published a meta-analysis examining the efficacy of approaches to mitigate Hypothetical Bias, a common issue in Stated Preference studies. Advanced research examining pollinator conservation and its potential relationship to honey bees.   Mississippi State University: Chen, B., S. D. Yun, and B. M. Gramig, 2020, “endoSwith: Endogenous Switching Regression Models (R-package),” (Version 1.0.0) available from R-Cran <a href="https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/endoSwitch/index.html">https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/endoSwitch/index.html</a>. (project members involved: Yun and Gramig) Two undergraduate students (Jessica Browne and Noel Irwin) at the Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University to collect data, analyze descriptive statistics and perform benefit transfer analysis from the grant of CALS/MAFES 2019 Undergraduate Research Scholar Program, “Measuring Non-Market Values of Agro-Ecosystem Services: A Benefit-Transfer Approach,” $6,000, 9/30/2019-8/31/2020. (project members involved: Yun and Interis) Students trained:  Frederick Nyanzu, M.S., August 2019.  Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University.  Thesis:  Optimal portfolio design to manage oyster resources.  Placement:  Ph.D. program, University of Illinois. Petrolia, D.R., D. Guignet, J.C. Whitehead, C. Kent, and K. Amon.  "Applications, Trends, and Limitations of Nonmarket Valuation Methods for Policymaking."  Working Paper. Caffey, R.H., D.R. Petrolia, I. Georgiou, M. Miner, H. Wang, and B. Kime.  "Economic and Geomorphic Comparison of Nearshore and OCS Sands for Barrier Island and Shoreline Restoration in Coastal Louisiana."  Working Paper.   Presentations: Petrolia, D.  "A Look at the Use of Nonmarket Valuation in Federal Rulemaking."  Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy Seminar, Penn State University, January 29, 2020. Petrolia, D.R., D. Guignet, J. Whitehead, C. Kent, and K. Amon.  "A Look at the Use of Nonmarket Valuation in Federal Rulemaking."  W-4133 Multistate Research Project Meeting, Athens, GA, February 13-14, 2020. Hwang, J. and D.R. Petrolia.  " Revisiting Opt-out Responses in Contingent Valuation."  W-4133 Multistate Research Project Meeting, Athens, GA, February 13-14, 2020. Petrolia, D.R., D. Guignet, J. Whitehead, C. Kent, C. Caulder, and K. Amon.  "Applications, Trends, & Limitations of Non-Market Valuation for Policymaking."  Southern Economic Association 89th Annual Meeting, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Nov. 23-25, 2019. Petrolia, D.R. and J. Hwang.  "Accounting for Attribute Non-Attendance in Three Previously-Published Choice Studies of Coastal and Marine Resources," CNREP 2019:  6th National Forum on Socioeconomic Research in Coastal Systems, New Orleans, May 19-21. Caffey, R., D.R. Petrolia, H. Wang, I. Georgiou, and M. Miner.  "A Geo-economic Framework for Examining the Benefits and Costs of Coastal Dredging Projects."  CNREP 2019:  6th National Forum on Socioeconomic Research in Coastal Systems, New Orleans, May 19-21. Caffey, R. C. Plummer, H. Wang, and D.R. Petrolia.  "Preferences and Values for the Gulf Coast Ocean Observing System."  CNREP 2019:  6th National Forum on Socioeconomic Research in Coastal Systems, New Orleans, May 19-21. Nyanzu, F., D.R. Petrolia, A. Harri, W. Walton, J. Cebrian, and S. Yun.  "Optimal Portfolio Design to Manage Oyster Resources," CNREP 2019:  6th National Forum on Socioeconomic Research in Coastal Systems, New Orleans, May 19-21. Penn, J., D.R. Petrolia, R. Caffey, and M. Fannin.  "Public Opinion of a Gulf-Wide Beach Conditions Reporting System."  CNREP 2019:  6th National Forum on Socioeconomic Research in Coastal Systems, New Orleans, May 19-21. Wang, H., R. Caffey, D.R. Petrolia, I. Georgiou, and M. Miner.  "Economic Comparison of OCS Sand vs. Nearshore Sand for Coastal Restoration Projects."  Poster presented at CNREP 2019:  6th National Forum on Socioeconomic Research in Coastal Systems, New Orleans, May 19-21. Petrolia, D.R., F. Nyanzu, J. Cebrian, W.C. Walton, A. Harri, J. Amato, J. Rider, G. Ramseur.  "Estimating Ecosystem Services for Oysters using Expert Elicitation."  Aquaculture 2019 Triennial Meeting, New Orleans, March 7-11.   North Carolina State University: Academic presentations were made at several conferences (European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Annual Conference, EPA Workshop on the Benefits of Water Quality Improvements, USDA Conference on Measuring Ecosystem Services, W4133 Annual Meetings, ACES Annual Conference, LEEPin2019 Conference) and seminars (Mississippi State University, Cornell University). Two Ph.D. students (Alexandra Naumenko and Jin Qin) graduated from NC State during the reporting period and are now employed at James Madison University and the College of William and Mary. Two NC State press releases were circulated, which led to state-level coverage at WUNC and the Raleigh News and Observer. NC State's Center for Environmental and Resource Economic Policy (CEnREP) also disseminated research findings on its website (<a href="https://cenrep.ncsu.edu/">https://cenrep.ncsu.edu/</a>).   Oregon State University: Dundas and collaborator (w4133 member Roger von Haefen) published a paper that estimates non-market recreation impacts of climate change. Our estimates suggest that extreme heat significantly reduces recreation participation in shoreline fishing and we find evidence of climate-averting behavior as anglers shift their activities to nighttime rather than fish less frequently to mitigate the negative impacts from extreme heat. Lewis, Dundas, Kling and collaborators published a paper quantifying the non-market benefits for conservation investments aimed at threatened Pacific Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) along the Oregon Coast. Results from a choice experiment survey suggest the public benefits from partial gains in species abundance that fall short of official recovery and from achieving gains in species abundance that happen earlier in time. Our results and approach can be used to price natural capital investments that lead to gains in returning salmon, and as inputs to evaluations of the benefits and costs from alternative conservation strategies.   University of Georgia: We conducted an empirical examination of wilderness demand and net economic value of wilderness access. The approach applies revealed preference modeling to wilderness trip demand by ecoregion type.  The analysis examined National Forest (NF) wilderness use (visits) and users (visitors) over a ten-year period from 2005 to 2014, segmented into two discrete periods. NF wilderness accounts for approximately one-third of the acreage, and 445 of 760 separate wilderness areas in the federal National Wilderness Preservation System (NWPS).  NF wilderness is administered across 113 different management units, ranging from the Tongass NF in Alaska containing 19 separate wilderness areas to Minnesota’s Superior NF contains only the Boundary Waters Canoe Wilderness Area. Some NFs, like the Wayne NF in Ohio, contain no designated wilderness.  Data for the analysis were obtained from the National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM) Program administered by the USDA Forest Service.   University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign: Ando worked with W4133 coauthors (UIUC graduate student Bryan Parthum, former UIUC graduate student Catalina Londono Cadavid, and Reed College professor Noelwah Netusil in Portland, Oregon) to publish a paper in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management that estimates the values that people in Chicago, Illinois and Portland, Oregon place on environmental improvements that can result from improved stormwater management. They find that the potential benefits of improved aquatic habitat, pollution reduction, and flood control are large, and that people may be willing to volunteer time to help produce these benefits in their own neighborhoods. Gramig worked with doctoral student Seojeong Oh and interdisciplinary collaborators at UIUC to develop a choice experiment survey to be conducted in 2020 to estimate household willingness to pay to improve water quality (reduce nutrient pollution) in Illinois, Indiana and Iowa. This work is funded by the NSF. Ando has collaborated with other researchers at UIUC and in Missouri on research to estimate the values of water quality improvements in the Corn Belt. She and UIUC graduate student Bryan Parthum completed a manuscript reporting on a choice experiment that finds that both urban and rural residents of the Upper Sangamon River watershed place large value on achieving nutrient reduction targets to stop Gulf hypoxia and reducing local algal blooms. This paper was has been revised and resubmitted to Land Economics.   Ando advised graduate student Liqing Li in research to understand how early life experience influences the values people have for nature when they are adults. The conducted a choice experiment survey eliciting peoples values for grassland restoration in Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa. Preliminary results show that willingness to pay for grasslands is higher for people who grew up near them. Additionally, people have higher value for specific recreational attributed such as trails and fishing ponds if they learned how to do those activities as children. Ando started research with W4133 participant Dale Manning at Colorado State to estimate the benefits of pest control services by bats. This research uses the spread of white-nose syndrome to quantify the impact of bat population reductions on acres of crops planted and the net surplus gained by producers on the acres they do plant.   University of Rhode Island: We conducted a non-market valuation survey to gauge the public preference and perception of wind power using as a case study the first wind farm established within the United States, near the cost of Block Island, Rhode Island.  Our survey consisted of three parts. In the first part, we asked respondents questions about the characteristics of their trip(s) to Block Island. The second part of our survey included questions about knowledge and perceptions of the wind farm off of Block Island shores.  This section also included Willingness to Pay questions for fishing, boating, sightseeing, beach, and bird and whale watching sites with and without a view of the turbines or without them. In the third and final section of the survey, we ask respondents to provide some basic demographic details such as age, household income and educational qualification. We also capture respondents' environmental attitudes by incorporating questions from the New Environmental Paradigm (NEP) (Dunlap and Liere 1978; Dunlap et al. 2000). We disseminated our survey in August 2018 through the Qualtrics platform to residents 18 years of age and above who reside in the states of California, Connecticut, Florida, New Jersey, New York, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania or Rhode Island. The purpose of this investigation was to examine tourist preferences for offshore wind turbines when participating in a suite of recreational activities (sightseeing, fishing, boating, beach visitation, and bird or whale watching). Specifically, we examine whether (i) prior knowledge and (ii) the sight of the turbines affect their preferences. The relationship between tourist activities and offshore turbines has not yet been studied in the context of the establishment of an actual offshore wind farm in the US. We contribute to the literature by exploring the heterogeneity in respondents’ preferences for an offshore wind farm and analyzing its impact on their willingness to pay (WTP) for these recreational activities at locations with a view, and without a view of the wind farm. By examining the impact of having seen the turbines on WTP, we also test whether the tourists at Block Island consider the wind farm to be a visual disamenity, a result which will provide some insight into future offshore wind developments in the US.  To meet these objectives, we design an original survey within the context of the Block Island Wind Farm. The survey asks about recreational activities, trips to Block Island, and a broad range of socioeconomic characteristics. The sample consists of 263 people who have been to Block Island at least once in the years between 2013 – 2018. The main focus of the survey is to analyze the impact of the knowledge and sight of the Block Island wind farm on respondents’ WTP for choice activities and locations. Across recreational activities, we find that 46-56% of the respondents are indifferent to turbine presence; that is, they are unwilling to pay anything for their choice. Though there is heterogeneity in WTP by activity, the average WTP is positive across all activities. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression using an Inverse Hyperbolic Sine (IHS) transformation, we estimate models that seek to understand the determinants of WTP. Our results indicate that respondents with prior knowledge of the turbines are willing to pay between 59% - 97% ($17.68 - $50) more, on average, for locations with a view of the turbines, across all activities. However, prior knowledge has no significant impact on WTP for any activity at locations without a view of the turbines. We find that having seen the turbines in person during the trip has a positive impact on the WTP for fishing, with respondents willing to pay on average, 63% ($19) more for fishing routes with a view of the turbines. This result suggests that the turbines are visually pleasing to people engaged in fishing activities at Block Island, a finding that is contrary to the conclusions of Ladenburg and Dubgaard (2009). Seeing the turbines has no impact on the WTP for any other activities at locations without turbine presence. We also find limited evidence of differences in WTP by partisanship: Democrats have a lower WTP for sightseeing compared to Republicans, but this result does not hold for boating and beach recreation. Independents, however, have a lower WTP for all activities with a view of the turbines. Socio-economic factors have a weak impact on both WTP. Environmental attitudes have no association with the respondents’ WTP for choice activities at locations with a view of the turbines, but a weak association with the WTP for sightseeing and birding activities at locations without their view. A survey was designed to understand the impact of different community benefits agreement schemes on public acceptance of large scale solar farms in the U.S. One focus group with eight participants was conducted and the team is now in the process of refining or redesigning the survey. The survey will be administered using Qualtrics, a professional survey platform, to residents of the New England and New York regions. We have completed analysis of 2016 exit poll data and aggregate precinct election results to assess bias resulting from use of aggregate data. Results demonstrate importance of individual data in this context. We have begun analysis that examines whether voters correctly understand prices they are paying for public good referendums and what effect misperceptions have on vote choice and implied willingness to pay estimates. Lang and a co-author published a paper that uses econometric methods to estimate the non-market valuation of offshore wind by tourists. They examined the short-term vacation rental market and found that tourism increased in Block Island, Rhode Island following the construction of the Block Island Wind Farm. Received grant: Lang, Corey (PI) and Venturini, Kate (Co-PI) “Solar Energy Siting Conflicts with Farm and Forest Lands,” USDA-AFRI, $300,000, 2019-2021. This award will fund original non-market valuation research on solar siting preferences and externalities, and we will conduct outreach before and after research with the goal of influencing ongoing policy development.   Aversion to environmental risk in stated preference: Implications for benefit transfer and scope response (with Ben Blachly) The goal of this study is to learn about the relationship between environmental risk preferences and scale as it applies to stated preference research. This study builds on the limited literature on environmental risk preferences and makes three key contributions. First, we perform an explicit test of whether environmental risk aversion increases with scale. This is a well-known result in the financial domain, and some research suggests that a similar relationship exists in an environmental setting.  Second, we compare the ability of different approaches to modelling the risk preference-scale relationship to reduce between-scale transfer errors. Preferences for environmental goods tend to be dependent on the scale at which they are elicited, so errors are likely when transferring values between scales. Finally, we explore how understanding the relationship between environmental risk preferences and scale can refine our interpretation of scope response. Scope response, the idea that willingness to pay should increase with the amount of good on offer, has evolved into a major test of theoretical consistency. Choice experiments, which are constructed to exhibit built-in (internal, or within-sample) scope response, have been subjected to few external (between-sample) tests of scope. We subject a choice experiment to an external scope test and explore risk aversion as a determinant of the degree of scope response.   Willingness-to-pay for water filters and water quality testing services in Guatemala (with Todd Guilfoos, Sarah Hayden, Vinka Oyanedel-Craver We conduct a contingent valuation study to estimate the willingness to pay for a point-of-use water quality technology and water quality testing services in the highlands of Guatemala. This study is unique in two ways: we measure drinking water quality at the household level through water samples collected at the household and we elicit the willingness to pay for water quality testing services. We find a significant divergence in subjects’ perceptions of water quality and the measured bacteria counts in their household water. This divergence is economically important as perceptions may play a significant role in willingness to pay for water quality improvements.   University of Wyoming: Resource Valuation Using Secondary Sources: A Watershed Case Study <ol> <li>Balint, Kyle, D., Economic Assessment of Nonpoint Source Pollution Management in the Tongue River Basin, WY, MS, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Summer 2019.</li> </ol> Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution remains the largest source of water quality impairment in the United States.  Management of NPS pollution requires incentive based programs for voluntary adoption at local levels.  Best management practices (BMPs) undertaken by private landowners generates private and public benefits.  Determining a payment above project costs to incentivize voluntary adoption is vital for land managers going forward as public funding decreases and climate change stresses our water supplies.  In the Tongue River Basin, WY, excellent water quality provides trout habitat and related ecosystem goods and services.  Tourism and agriculture are two of the largest industries in the area- yet one contributes to NPS pollution while the other relies on clean water for recreational opportunities.  We conducted a meta-analysis to determine willingness to pay for water quality improvements.  We then built a ranch model to determine willingness to accept payment for best management practices.  With these two estimates, we assessed the zone of potential contract agreement for adoption of BMPs in the Tongue River Basin, WY.   <ol start="2"> <li>February 13-14, 2020. “Baseline Values for Erosion Mitigation in Small Watersheds.” K. Balint, R. Coupal, D. McLeod, K. Hansen and G. Paige. W-4133 Meetings: Benefits and Costs of Natural Resources Policies Affecting Ecosystem Services on Public and Private Lands.  Athens, GA.</li> </ol>      Objective 3   Colorado State University: In collaboration with engineers at CSU and others at UN-R, we have begun to build alternative water institutions within a linked water supply and allocation model.  This model will allow us to examine the impact of alternative water allocation mechanisms under climate change.  Our research examines the importance of the change in timing of surface water flows as snowmelt occurs at different times of the year. We have completed a hydro-economic model of Finney County, Kansas that allows groundwater managers to examine the impact of alternative policies on agricultural groundwater use over space and time.  This work is currently under review at Agricultural Water Management. We published two articles on wildfire suppression in the US.  In “Resource Allocation Under Fire”, we estimate the influence of threatened homes on the number of resources sent to a fire and show that growth in the wildland urban interface could increase future wildfire suppression costs.  In “Weather, Risk, and Resource Orders on Large Wildland Fires in the Western US,” we show that incident commanders order resources in anticipation of changing weather conditions rather than merely reacting to current or past fire behavior.   University of Georgia: A study was conducted to examine subjective probabilities of exposure to catastrophic risks posed by natural hazards (e.g., floods, hurricanes, tornadoes).   Sophisticated computer models are often used to estimate “objective” probabilities of exposure to natural hazard risks.  However, previous theoretical and empirical studies suggest ordinary people have limited access to and understanding of objective risk probabilities and instead base choices on their own subjective risk probabilities.  Thus, in this study we focus on classes of economic models that employ subjective assessments of risk probabilities.  We review some of the pitfalls encountered in previous work on natural hazard risks and explore empirical approaches that could be pursued to incorporate structural parameters or estimate structural models of individual choice under risk of natural hazard. In a study of increasing the use of renewable resources (e.g., wind, solar) to generate electricity distributed by the national grid, we combined the economic and engineering literatures to empirically investigate whether increasing the net capacity of electricity supplied by renewable resources negatively impacts power system reliability. We measure disruptions in power system reliability by the frequency or duration of power system disruptions experienced by end-consumers.  We measured power system interruptions using values of the system average interruption duration index (SAIDI), and the system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.  We estimated the statistical relationships between the SAIDI and SAIFI indices and explanatory variables including increasing the capacity of renewable resources used to generate power using a linear random-effects econometric model.  To provide insight into the policy implications of our results, we used our econometric model to forecast disruptions in power system reliability assuming different renewable energy policy scenarios for sixteen different states. We then estimated the economic costs of our forecasted disruptions using an open-source, interruption cost estimate calculator.    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign: Gramig mentored with post-doctoral associate Bowen Chen at UIUC and both worked together with Prof. Seong Yun at Mississippi State University to launch a project for USDA-NRCS to quantify the on-farm benefits of agricultural conservation practices that are subsidized by federal agri-environmental programs (i.e. EQIP). This work also involves USDA-ERS through the use of data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) administered by NASS for ERS. This work will quantify how NRCS conservation practices economically impact farms that adopt them, and will be used to provide economically relevant information about these practices to NRCS customers evaluating alternative conservation strategies. This work is funded by NRCS. Ando and W4133 partner Sahan Dissanayake in Oregon entered into a cooperative agreement with the USDA to do a choice experiment survey of the values of different kinds of grassland restoration that is carefully tailored to inform legislative and agency decisions about the size and administration of the Conservation Reserve Program. Ando teamed up with researchers at places including UIUC, CUNY, and Argonne National Lab, to secure $2.5 million in funding for a project from the NSF-INFEWS program for a project that will integrate ecosystem service valuation and physical/climatological modeling to study “Climate-induced extremes on the food, energy, water nexus (C-FEWS) and the role of engineered and natural infrastructure.”   University of Rhode Island: Decision support modeling for multi-attribute water quality in the Narragansett Bay watershed (with Robert Griffin) In this study, we develop an integrated assessment model for spatially simulating water quality changes and social welfare effects for recreational use and non-use as a function of common point and non-point source pollution management interventions. This extends prior modeling by incorporating a broader suite of water quality characteristics beyond phosphorus and nitrogen that are known to affect water quality. Beyond demonstrating the feasibility of such a model, we show the implications of omitting water quality factors on model estimates and find that in some cases a smaller set of water quality attributes may not significantly impact estimates of willingness to pay. We derive these lessons in a case study of Narragansett Bay, a coastal estuary that has recently experienced significant changes in nutrient loading due to a combination of point and non-point source changes and find that recent wastewater treatment upgrades are providing millions in annual value to adjacent residents. Narragansett Bay Watershed Economy The Narragansett Bay Watershed (NBW) is the land area that drains into the Narragansett Bay, including rivers and streams that eventually flow into it. Its natural capital, comprised of 1,700 square miles of land and 420 miles of coastline, supports the economy and the quality of life of millions of people. But climate change and expanding development are already affecting the natural capital base, in turn making the future of our economy and people’s quality of life vulnerable to future threats. The goal of this project is to quantify the benefits we derive from NBW’s natural capital so, in turn, we can inform and improve decision-making policy regarding the management and protection of the watershed’s environment. Decisions we make in the NBW every day—e.g., land use and management, wastewater management, subsidies for economic development—can have direct and indirect impacts on the watershed, its natural capital, and the economy and quality of life that it supports. We also uncover the history of the NBW through the lens of the long-term changes to our economy and the environment to understand how we got to where we are now and to learn from the past decisions. This project encompasses several major studies involving multiple research teams and complements the Narragansett Bay Estuary Program’s 2017 State of the Bay and Its Watershed, which documented present and potential future threats that may impact its health. It is hoped that these studies will enable more informed decisions by government agencies, the private sector, nonprofit and community organizations, and others.

Publications

Publications   Objective 1   Ahmadiani, Mona, Susana Ferreira, and Craig E. Landry. 2019. “Flood Insurance and Risk Reduction: Market Penetration, Coverage, and Mitigation in Coastal North Carolina” Southern Economics Journal 85(4): 1058-1082, DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12332">https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12332</a>   Bollinger, B., Burkhardt, J., Gillingham, K. Peer Effects in Residential Water Conservation: Evidence from Migration. Forthcoming: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (2020).   Dundas, S.J., and D.J. Lewis. 2020. “Estimating Option Values and Spillover Damages for Coastal Protection: Evidence from Oregon’s Planning Goal 18.” Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (Forthcoming).   Foelske, L, CJ Van Riper, W Stewart, A Ando, P Gobster, L Hunt. 2019. “Assessing preferences for growth on the rural-urban fringe using a stated choice analysis.” Landscape and Urban Planning 189: 396-407.   Hashida, Y., and D.J. Lewis. 2019. “The Intersection between Climate Adaptation, Mitigation, and Natural Resources: An Empirical Analysis of Forest Management.” Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 6(5): 893-926.   Hashida, Y., Withey, J., Lewis, D.J., Newman, T., and J. Kline. 2020. “Anticipating changes in wildlife habitat induced by private forest owners’ adaptation to climate change and carbon policy.” PLOS ONE (In Press).   Hodde, W, JP Sesmero, BM Gramig, TJ Vyn, O Doering. "The effect of projected climate change on the economics of conservation tillage." Agronomy Journal 111(6):1-11, 2019.   Jakus, Paul M. and Sherzod B. Akhundjanov. 2019. “The Antiquities Act, Large National Monuments, and the Regional Economy.” J. Environmental Economics and Management, 95(May):102-117. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.03.004">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.03.004</a>   Kim, Man-Keun, and Paul M. Jakus. 2019. “Wildfire, National Park Visitation, and Changes in Regional Economic Activity.” J. Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 26(June):34-42. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2019.03.007">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2019.03.007</a>   Levesque, V., Calhoun, A. and K.P. Bell. 2019. Actions speak louder than words: Designing transdisciplinary approaches to enact solutions, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 9(2):159-169, DOI: 10.1007/s13412-018-0535-0.   Meunier, Simon, Dale T. Manning., Dan Zimmerle, Loic Queval, Judith Cherni, and Philippe Dessante (2019).  Determinants of the marginal willingness to pay for improved domestic water and irrigation in partially electrified Rwandan villages.  International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology.   Moeltner, K., J.A. Balukas, E. Besedin, and B. Holland (published online Aug. 2019). Waters of the United States: Upgrading Wetland Valuation via Benefit Transfer, Ecological Economics.   Munroe, D.K., Crandall, M.S., Colocousis, C., Bell, K.P., and A.T. Morzillo (2019). Reciprocal relationships between forest management and regional landscape structures: applying concepts from land system science to private forest management, Journal of Land Use Science, DOI: 10.1080/1747423X.2019.1607914.   Netusil, N.R., K. Moeltner, M. Jarrad, K. Moeltner (published online Aug. 2019). Floodplain Designation and Property Sale Prices in an Urban Watershed, Land Use Policy.   Opalinski, Nicole, Aditi Bhaskar and Dale T. Manning (2019). Response of Municipal Water Use to Weather across the Contiguous US, JAWRA.  https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12801.   Peterson, Nicole E., Craig E. Landry, Clark Alexander, Brian Bledsoe, and Kevin Samples. 2019. “Socioeconomic and Environmental Predictors of Estuarine Shoreline Hard Armoring” Nature: Scientific Reports, 9, 16288, DOI: doi:10.1038/s41598-019-52504-y   Petrolia, D.R., J. Penn, R. Quainoo*, R.H. Caffey, and J.M. Fannin.  2019.  "Know Thy Beach: Values of Beach Condition Information."  Marine Resource Economics 34(4): 331-59. Penn J, Hu W, and H Penn. 2019. Support for Native, Solitary Pollinator Conservation among the Public versus Beekeepers. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, ASSA invited paper. 101(5): 1386-1400.   Riley, D., Mieno, T., Schoengold, K., & Brozović, N. (2019). The impact of land cover on groundwater recharge in the High Plains: An application to the Conservation Reserve Program. Science of the Total Environment, 696, 133871.   Scyphers, Stephen B., Michael W. Beck, Kelsi L. Furman, Judy Haner, Lauren I. Josephs, Rebecca Lynskey, Andrew Keeler, Craig E. Landry, Sean P. Powers, Bret M. Webb, and Jonathan H. Grabowski.. 2019. “A Waterfront View of Coastal Hazards: Exploring Relationships among Exposure, Shoreline Type, and Hazard Concerns” Sustainability 11(23), 6687, DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su11236687">https://doi.org/10.3390/su11236687</a>   Suter, Jordan, Mani Rouhi Rad, Dale Manning, Chris Goemans, and Matthew Sanderson (forthcoming). Groundwater Depletion, Climate, and the Incremental Value of Groundwater.  Resource and Energy Economics.   Trout, Thomas J. and Dale T. Manning (2019). An Economic and Biophysical Model of Deficit Irrigation.  Agronomy Journal. doi:10.2134/agronj2019.03.0209   Yun, S. D. and B. M. Gramig, 2019, “Agro-Climatic Data by County (ACDC): A Spatially and Temporally Consistent U.S. Dataset for Agricultural Yields, Weather and Soils,” Data, 4(2): 66. Nyanzu, F.  2019.  Optimal portfolio design to manage oyster resources.  Master's thesis, Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University.   Zhong, Hua, Michael Taylor, Kimberly Rollins, Dale Manning, and Chris Goemans (2019). Who Pays for Water Scarcity? Evaluating the Welfare Implications of Water Infrastructure Investments for Cities.  The Annals of Regional Science.  The Annals of Regional Science, 63(3), 559-600.   Zipp, K.Y., Lewis, D.J., Provencher, B., and J. Vander Zanden. 2019. “The Spatial Dynamics of the Economic Impacts of an Aquatic Invasive Species: An Empirical Analysis.” Land Economics, 95(1): 1-18.   Objective 2   Ando, AW, Cadavid, CL, N Netusil, and B Parthum. 2020. “Willingness-to -volunteer and stability of preferences between cities: Estimating the benefits of stormwater management.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 99: 102274.   Bi, X., T. Borisova, and A. Hodges. 2019. “Economic Value of Visitation to Free-Flowing and Impounded Portions of a River: Implications for Management River Flow.”  Review of Regional Studies (49): 244-267.   Boslett, A., Guilfoos, T., & Lang, C. (2019). Valuation of the external costs of unconventional oil and gas development: The critical importance of mineral rights ownership. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 6(3), 531-561. Prendergast, P., Pearson-Merkowitz, S., & Lang, C. (2019). The individual determinants of support for open space bond referendums. Land use policy, 82, 258-268.   Bowker, J. Michael, Ashley E. Askew, Craig E. Landry, Alexis Hedges, and D.B.K. English. 2019. “Wilderness Use, Users, Preferences, and Values: A Look at the National Forest System from 2005 to 2014” In, A Perpetual Flow of Benefits: State of Knowledge Report on the Economic, Social, and Tribal Values of Wilderness in America, (Ed.: T.P. Holmes, S.  Fox), Southern Research Station General Technical Report, US Forest Service, Asheville, NC.   Carr-Harris, A., & Lang, C. (2019). Sustainability and tourism: the effect of the United States’ first offshore wind farm on the vacation rental market. Resource and Energy Economics, 57, 51-67.   Dahal, R.P., R.K. Grala, J.S. Gordon, I.A. Munn, D.R. Petrolia, and R. Cummings.  2019.  "A hedonic pricing method to estimate value of waterfront in the Gulf of Mexico."  Urban Forestry & Urban Greening 41(May): 185-94.   Dundas, S.J. and R. von Haefen. 2020. “The Effects of Weather on Recreational Fishing Demand and Adaptation: Implications for a Changing Climate,” Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 7(2): 209-242.   English, Eric, Ted McConnell, Joseph Herriges, Frank Lupi and Roger H. von Haefen. "Fixed Costs and Recreation Value," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 101(4): 1082-1097, July 2019.   Klaiber, H. Allen & Roger H. von Haefen. "Do Random Coefficient and Alternative Specific Constants Improve Policy Analysis? An Empirical Investigation of Model Fit and Prediction," Environmental and Resource Economics, 73(1): 75-91, May 2019.   Landry, Craig E., Andrew G. Keeler, and Stephen Scyphers. 2019. “Household Preferences for Post-storm Coastal Adaptation: An Application of Choice Experiments” Southern Economics Association 89th Annual Conference: Fort Lauderdale, FL   Landry, Craig E., Andrew G. Keeler, and Stephen Scyphers. 2019. “Household Preferences for Post-storm Coastal Adaptation: An Application of Choice Experiments” Forum on Challenges in Natural Resource Economics & Policy, Louisiana State University, 6th National Forum on Socioeconomic Research in Coastal Systems: New Orleans, LA   Lewis, D.J., Dundas, S.J., Kling, D.M., Lew, D.K., and S.D. Hacker. 2019. “The non-market benefits of early and partial gains in managing threatened salmon.” PLOS ONE 14(8): e0220260.   Mueller, Julie M., Soder, Adrienne B. and Springer, Abraham E. (2019). “Valuing attributes of restoration in a semi-arid watershed.” Landscape and Urban Planning 184: 78-87.   Mueller, Julie M., Lima, Ryan E., Springer, Abraham E. and Schiefer, Erik. (2018). “Using matching methods to estimate impacts of wildfire and post-wildfire flooding on house prices.” Water Resources Research 54(9):6189-6201.   Mutandwa, E., R.K. Grala, and D.R. Petrolia.  2019.  “Estimates of willingness to accept compensation to manage pine stands for ecosystem services.”  Forest Policy and Economics 102(May): 75-85. Naumenko, Alexandra. "Three Essays on the Nonmarket Valuation of the Air and the Sea," Ph.D. Dissertation under the direction of Roger H. von Haefen, Economics Program, North Carolina State University, September 2019.   Penn J and W Hu. 2019. Cheap Talk Efficacy under Potential and Actual Hypothetical Bias: A meta-analysis. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 96: 22-35. Penn JM, Hu W, and LJ Cox. 2019. Forced Choice with Constant Choice Experiment Complexity. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 44(2): 439-455.   Petrolia, D.R. and J. Hwang.  "Accounting for Attribute Non-Attendance in Three Previously-Published Choice Studies of Coastal Resources."  Forthcoming, Marine Resource Economics.   Qin, Jin. "A Test of the Relationship between Air Pollution and Exports: The Case of China," Ph.D. Dssertation under the direction of Ivan Kandilov and Roger H. von Haefen, Economics Program, North Carolina State University, January 2019.   Trandafir, S., Gaur, V., Behanan, P., Lang, C., Uchida, E., and Miao, H. “Impact of offshore wind turbines on preferences for recreational activities”, submitted on 02/03/2020 to Marine Resource Economics   Yehouenou, L., K. Grogan, X. Bi, and T. Borisova. “Improving BMP Cost-Share Enrollment Rates: Insights from a Survey of Florida Farmers”. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. Accepted.   Objective 3   Bayham, Jude, Erin J. Belval, Matthew P. Thompson, Christopher Dunn, Crystal S. Stonesifer, and David E. Calkin. 2020. “Weather, Risk, and Resource Orders on Large Wildland Fires in the Western US.” Forests 11 (2): 169.   Bayham, Jude and Jonathan K. Yoder.  2020.  “Resource Allocation Under Fire” Land Economics. 96 (1): 92-110.   Guilfoos, Todd, Sarah Hayden, Emi Uchida, Vinka Oyanedel-Craver. (2019) WTP for water filters and water quality testing services in Guatemala. Water Resources and Economics. In Press.   Khanna, M., BM Gramig, EH DeLucia, X Cai, P Kumar. "Harnessing the Potential of Emerging Technologies to Mitigate the Hypoxia Challenge." Nature Sustainability 2:889-891, 2019.   Landry, Craig E., Mona Ahmadiani, and Gregory Colson. 2019. “Structural Empirical Analysis of Decisions under Natural Hazard Risk” in The Future of Risk Management, University of Pennsylvania Press: Philadelphia, PA.   Margenot, A, D Kitt, BM Gramig, T Berkshire, N Chatterjee, A Hertzberger, S Aguiar, A Furneaux, N Sharma, R Cusick. "Toward a regional phosphorus (re)cycle in the U.S. Midwest." Journal of Environmental Quality, 48(5):1397-1413.   Prokopy, LS, K Floress, JG Arbuckle, SP Church, F Eanes, Y Gao, BM Gramig, P Ranjan, AS Singh. "Adoption of Agricultural Conservation Practices in the United States: Evidence from 35 Years of Quantitative Literature." Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 74(5):520-534, 2019.   Roy, Samuel G., Emi Uchida, Simone P. de Souza, Ben Blachly, Emma Fox, Kevin Gardner, Arthur J. Gold, Jessica Jansujwicz, Sharon Klein, Bridie McGreavy, Weiwei Mo, Sean M. C. Smith, Emily Vogler, Karen Wilson, Joseph Zydlewski, David Hart. A multiscale approach to balance trade-offs among dam infrastructure, river restoration, and cost. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2018, 115 (47) 12069-12074; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1807437115   Steele, Amanda Harker, John C. Bergstrom, and J. Wesley Burnett. “Examining the Regional Economic Costs of Electric Power Grid Interruptions Associated with Increased Intermittent Renewable Resource Capacity”, Selected Paper, 2019 North American meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Pittsburgh, PA, November, 2019.   Uchida, E., Mead A., Giroux, A., & Hayden, S. (2019). Narragansett Bay Watershed Economy: The ebb and flow of natural capital. Narragansett, R.I.: Coastal Institute at the University of Rhode Island. Available for download <a href="https://www.nbweconomy.org/">https://www.nbweconomy.org/</a>   Zia, A., Ding, S., Messer, K. D., Miao, H., Suter, J., Fooks, J. R., Guilfoos, T., Tranda.r, S., Uchida, E., Tsai, Y., Merrill, S., Turnbull, S., and Koliba, C. (2020). Characterizing Heterogeneous Behavior of Non-Point Source Polluters in a Spatial Game under Alternate Sensing and Incentive Designs.  Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. Accepted.    2020 Meeting Abstracts   Title: Do ecological-economic tradeoffs change by types of budget distribution options for forest carbon sequestration in the Central and Southern Appalachian region? Authors: Cho, Seong-Hoon; Sharma, Bijay P.; Lee, Young Gwan W4133 task: 1-1 Presenter: Young Lee Presenter email: ylee51@vols.utk.edu Abstract:   Providing direct payments to landowners is a well-known strategy to preserve and restore ecosystem services (ES). A literature gap dealing with payments for ES is manifest in the lack of attention given to spatial and temporal aspects of cost efficiency in the context of the ecological-economic tradeoff relationship. The purpose of this research is to fill the literature gap by evaluating how different optimal spatial and temporal budget distribution options for protecting ES result in different ecological-economic tradeoffs. As a case study, we develop an empirical framework for the optimal distribution of a given budget for direct payments to forestland owners for forest carbon sequestration in the Central and Southern Appalachian Region in 2001 and 2006. We consistently find concave efficient frontiers between carbon storage and total value-added and also differences in ecological-economic tradeoffs for the three distribution options (i.e., spatially-varying and temporally-fixed distribution options in 2001 and 2006, and a spatially-temporally-varying distribution option for which data are pooled for the two years). The former confirms previous findings of a concave tradeoff relationship, while the latter new finding suggests that balancing weights between the two objectives with preferences of decision makers can be effectively done depending on distribution options.   Title: Evidence of Extremeness Aversion in Preferences for Public Park Attributes Authors: Lendie Folletta and Brian Vander Naald W4133 task: 2-1 Presenter: Brian Vander Naald Presenter email: brian.vandernaald@drake.edu Abstract:   Methods for exploring the so-called “compromise effect" in discrete choice experiments was first introduced in the context of brand choice (Simonson 1989). Also termed extremeness aversion in the transportation literature, there does not appear to be much evidence of it in the environmental economics literature, so we explore it here. In November 2012, residents of Polk County, Iowa passed the ten-year, $50 million Polk County Water and Legacy Bond. The goal of the bond was to protect water quality around the two largest watersheds converging in Des Moines. One projected outcome was an improvement in recreational opportunities at watershed dependent public parks in Polk County. Using data from a discrete choice experiment, we estimate willingness to pay for improvements in different public park amenities. Surveys were administered at three different Polk County Parks during the summers of 2017 and 2018 examining preferences for different attributes at public parks. 937 surveys were completed. Three groups of respondents saw three different sets of attribute levels. Preliminary estimates indicate that users are WTP between $100 and $240 per year for a 100% increase in water clarity, and between $106 and $163 per year for a 100% increase in good game fish at Polk County Parks. Smaller, but still positive, WTP estimates were found for increases in park land and bird diversity. We use a Bayesian Error Components Model to explore the presence of extremeness aversion in responses. We find preliminary evidence of extremeness aversion, wherein WTP values for identical attribute levels are different across groups who saw different sets of attribute levels.   Title: WTP for biodiversity protection: Evidence from Waikamoi Preserve Authors: Sonja Kolstoe, Brian Vander Naald, and Alison Cohan W4133 task: 2-1 Presenter: Sonja Kolstoe Presenter email: shkolstoe@salisbury.edu Abstract:   In Hawai'i, the `Ohi'a tree makes up approximately 80% of the native forests, and serves as critical habitat for the state's native forest birds. An immediate potential threat to these forests is Rapid `Ohi'a Death, or ROD, a introduced fungal disease. First found on the Big Island of Hawai'I in 2014, ROD is responsible for killing off large quantities of `Ohi'a trees. ROD has also been found on the island of Kaua'i and, more recently, on Maui and Oahu. The Nature Conservancy manages several land parcels in the state of Hawaii to include Waikmaoi Preserve which is located on the island of Maui. Waikamoi is the single-largest privately held nature preserve in the state and the Nature Conservancy is responsible for protecting the fragile ecosystem per their conservation easement agreement. Waikamoi Preserve's vast `Ohi'a-dominant forest is the last stronghold for 63 species of rare plants and 10 species of birds, five of them endangered. These species are threatened by the introduction of invasive species and climate change. Visitors to Waikamoi Preserve mostly commonly come to see Hawai'i's rare and endemic forest bird species, including the `akohekohe or Crested Honeycreeper (endangered), kiwikiu or Maui Parrotbill (critically endangered), i`iwi or Scarlet Honeycreeper (threatened), and the endemic `alauahio or Maui creeper (not currently listed as threatened). ROD has not yet been found near Waikamoi Preserve, but there is concern that it could be introduced in the future. Due to the heightened concerns of introducing ROD or some other introduced species or disease, access to Waikamoi has been limited since in order to reduce risk of introducing new invasive species such as ROD. In 2016, the American Birding Association added Hawaii to its North American Birding List, which served as a large and positive demand shock for access to Waikamoi Preserve and The Nature Conservancy is seeking a long-term solution about how to provide access. We use a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to collect preference data from Qualtric's national sample in Fall 2019 to investigate the following questions: (1) how much are people willing to pay for expanded access to the Preserve and (2) how much they are willing to pay to mitigate the risks to the Preserve posed by invasive species and climate change. The DCE is designed to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) both for expanded access, as well as for di_erent bird abundances and levels of risk of a new invasive species or disease. We will gather preference responses from over 1000 respondents using Qualtrics. We will explore average WTP and how it varies systematically based on observable characteristics.   Title: Making sense of applying herbicide in forest Authors: Yukiko Hashida and David Kling W4133 task: 1-1 Presenter: Yukiko Hashida Presenter email: yhashida@uga.edu Abstract:   Meeting human needs for natural resources while conserving biodiversity is one of the critical challenges. Addressing the challenge requires understanding trade-offs between the economic value of commodity production and biodiversity; as many resource management worldwide has intensified and accelerating biodiversity loss, it is becoming increasingly essential to understand the trade-offs that landowners face in determining the management decisions. On the other hand, some argue for harnessing the potential of higher-yield production to make space for nature and free up land for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services (Phalan et al., 2016). On private industrial forestland, diverse early-seral ecosystems have continued to decline because of intensive forest management practices that convert hardwoods and shrubby areas to conifers, suppress hardwoods in plantations, and accelerate canopy closures (Phalan et al., 2019). Private industrial forest landowners commonly apply herbicide to reduce competing vegetation, even though the application has been controversial from both human and ecosystem health perspectives (Rolando et al., 2017). Because of the substantial opportunity costs associated with forest management (e.g., it takes a long time to establish forest), landowners base their herbicide application decision on the assumption that the profit gain from an increased volume from herbicide outweighs the costs. Previous ecological study (Newton, 2019; paper is still under review) confirms that without herbicide, we need to spread out forestry operations to get the same amount of lumber, indicating the above trade-off of intensive management and economy of scale. It also states that spraying herbicide does not always generate additional financial values, especially for landowners with higher discount rates (>7%). This finding raises a question of the economic rationale of herbicide application. The fact that private landowners almost exclusively apply herbicide despite the potential financial loss creates an interesting research opportunity to verify it using the empirical herbicide application data and coupling it with the biodiversity species metrics. This study spatially quantifies the biodiversity-yield tradeoffs with empirical herbicide application data in Oregon. We have privately obtained plot-level herbicide application data from the Oregon Department of Forestry that includes about 100,000 records of herbicide application between 1990 and 2014. The data includes a method of application, acreage of herbicide applied, locations up to PLSS quarter-quad level, owner type (federal, state, private, corporate etc.), and owner names etc. Almost 90% of the areas applied with herbicide are private industrial forestlands, and 60% of the application is done by helicopters (average 100 acres each application). The application has sharply increased until 2006 followed by a sharp decline in usage among private industrial owners. The study aims to address: 1) identifying the economic factors that drive herbicide applications based on the past application behaviors and 2) linking the economic values from commodity production and negative impact on biodiversity, with the aim to provide policymakers evidence-based rationales to convince landowners where and when herbicide application might not make economic sense.   Title: Effects of Stated Attribute Non-attendance and Attribute Importance in Nonmarket Valuation Authors: Qianyan Wu, Xiang Bi, and Zhifeng Gao W4133 task: 2-1 Presenter: Xiang Bi Presenter email: xiangbi@ufl.edu Abstract:   Valuation of complex ecosystems through survey is often confounded with attribute non-attendance (ANA) behaviors in which respondents simplify choices by ignoring one or more attributes of the ecosystem to be valued in discrete choice experiments (DCE). The observed ANA behavior is often assumed to be a heuristic thus should not influence willingness to pay. However, if ANA actually reflects genuine preference instead of a heuristic, this might result in misleading welfare estimates and thus suboptimal policy advice (Heidenreich et al. 2018). Choosing the appropriate method to distinguish ANA heuristic vs. true preference and examining the impacts of treating ANA as heuristic or preference can significantly affect welfare estimates.  Specifically, DCEs in environment and natural resources may be prone to the use of this ANA processing strategies. When experiments include a strong attribute, especially familiar one, individual may be more likely to consider this attribute at the expense of others to overcome some cognitive burden and avoid unfamiliar attributes.   One approach to address ANA is to use additional information from the respondents by asking follow-up questions on whether specific attributes are ignored (Cameron and DeShazo, 2010; Alemu et al., 2013; Colombo and Glenk, 2014; Glenk et al., 2015). Then zero impact is assigned to the ignored attributes on the likelihood assuming that self-reported ANA statements is accurate, and the ANA behavior is uniform across choices. However, this might cause measurement errors problems in stated ANA when respondents that state ignoring specific attributes actually do not fully ignore it and put a different importance on it instead. Carlsson et al. (2010) suggest that instead of ignoring attributes completely, respondents may put less weight on attributes they claim to have not pay attention to. For example, they find that the most often ignored attribute is also the attribute that receives the lowest preference ranking. Other empirical studies also find that even though respondents state they ignore specific attributes, this might not be totally true (e.g. Campbell and Lorimer, 2009; Hess and Hensher, 2010). Hence, the conventional method by fixing ignored attribute coefficient to zero is inappropriate. Incorrectly constraining ignored attributes to have a zero coefficient could result in a mis-specified model (Hole et al., 2013). Recently, Scarpa et al. (2012) proposed a tool to validate self-reported stated ANA statements by specifying an indirect utility function with partitioned coefficients for each of the attributes, depending on whether the respondent identified the attribute as considered or ignored when making their decision.   In this paper, we propose an extension of the ANA validation approach proposed by Scapa et al (2012) by using additional information on stated importance for each attribute.  Following Scarpa et al. (2012), we validate the ANA statements in which two coefficients for each attribute are estimated (one for the self-reported considered attributes and one for the self-reported ignored attributes). We then partition the ignored attribute into three additional categories: not important, very important, and neither important nor unimportant.  We compare the willingness to pay estimates and model performance using conventional models, ANA models assuming ignored attributes to have zero impact, Scapa’s model, and our proposed model.   We find that the conventional approach of fixing ignored attributes to zero may not be appropriate since attributes claimed to have been ignored are actually not completely ignored according to the conditional logit model, which confirm the findings of Hess and Hensher (2010) and Carlsson et al. (2010). In mixed logit models, we find that ignore attributes coefficients are insignificant, indicating to some extend of appropriateness of standard ANA approach. Our extension with stated attribute importance has some bearings on the appropriateness of the standard ANA approach. For those respondents who stated they ignored specific attributes and also think this attribute is not important, our model confirm that these respondents actually have zero preference for these ignored attributes. For attributes that are important, our preference parameter estimates are found to be significant different from zero even if the respondents stated that they are ignored.   Title: Estimating Willingness to Pay with Referendum Follow-up Multiple-Bounded Uncertainty Choice Questions Authors: Craig Landry and John C. Whitehead W4133 task: 2-1 Presenter: John C. Whitehead Presenter email: whiteheadjc@appstate.edu Abstract:   The hypothetical referendum is considered to be incentive compatible and has become the preferred question format for contingent valuation studies. Yet, it provides a minimal amount of information with which to estimate willingness-to-pay and its determinants. This tends to lead to wide confidence intervals and at times limited evidence of theoretical validity of referendum responses. Follow-up referendum questions have been used to increase statistical efficiency and conduct internal scope and other validity tests but these have been prone to anchoring and incentive incompatibility. Using data from a survey of North Carolina residents about coastal erosion policies we present respondents with a multiple bounded payment card question that explicitly addresses the uncertainty inherent in any hypothetical scenario and allows for the expression of respondent uncertainty. We find that the resulting willingness to pay estimates are not biased when compared to those from the single bound dichotomous choice and they are more efficient, finding scope effects where the single model data does not.   Title: Revisiting Opt-out Responses in Contingent Valuation Authors: Joonghyun Hwang and Daniel R. Petrolia W4133 task: 2-1 Presenter: Joonghyun Hwang Presenter email: <a href="mailto:Joonghyun.Hwang@MyFWC.com">Joonghyun.Hwang@MyFWC.com</a> Abstract:   This paper revisits the topic of opt-out responses in contingent valuation from a fresh perspective.  We test if opt-out is similar to yes or no based on two criteria: the vector of beta estimates and variances using the nested logit model.  We examine effects of discarding opt-out responses from estimation based on two criteria: the vector of beta estimates and the vector of sample means, given that willingness to pay calculation is based on the two.  This is important because comparing willingness to pay estimates directly may result in a false conclusion if differences in some elements in either beta or sample means vectors between samples are offset by differences in some other elements.  We find evidence that welfare estimates may be affected by discarding opt-out responses.    Title: Price Perception and Willingness to Vote for Public Goods Authors: Corey Lang, Casey Wichman, and Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz W4133 task: 2-1 Presenter: Corey Lang Presenter email: <a href="mailto:clang@uri.edu">clang@uri.edu</a> Abstract: Direct democracy is an important determinant of local public goods; US voters annually authorize billions of dollars in public spending through bond and tax referendums. In theory, referendums set a price and quantity for public goods and allow voters to do a cost-benefit analysis when deciding how to vote. The purpose of this paper is to assess how well voters understand referendum costs and the implications of misperceived costs. We conducted exit polls in three municipalities and directly asked voters how much in additional taxes they would pay if a municipal referendum appearing on their November 2018 ballot passed. The referendums varied in terms of targeted public goods (open space, smart growth, road repairs), funding mechanisms (property taxes, bonds), and total costs. Household specific costs varied based on the specifics of the referendum and the respondent’s housing value. We incentivized accuracy and truthful responses by paying respondents for correct answers. Additionally, the survey was self-administered and anonymous, which mitigates social desirability bias. Basic summary statistics from the survey clearly indicate that voters do not understand the financial consequences of their vote. 59% of respondents did not even guess at the referendum cost. Of those that did register a guess, there is evidence of a common heuristic; distributions are similar across the three municipalities despite one being substantially cheaper than the others. Lastly, there is near-zero correlation with actual cost. We estimate models of willingness to vote (approve) and include stated cost or actual cost as independent variables, similar to the analysis of a binary contingent valuation choice experiment. Results suggest that stated cost has a negative and statistically significant impact on approval, as would be expected for the cost parameter, but actual cost has a statistically insignificant effect and the coefficient is positive. These results suggest that voters are responsive to price, but are responding to incorrectly perceived price. The implications are that 1) demand modeling using voting data may be biased due to voters misunderstanding of prices and 2) improved understanding of prices may have a substantial impact on which voters approve and the aggregate approval.   Title: Status Quo Bias and Public Policy: Evidence in the Context of Carbon Mitigation Authors: Corey Lang, Michael Weir, and Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz W4133 task: 1-4, 2-1 Presenter: Michael Weir Presenter email: <a href="mailto:michaeljweir@uri.edu">michaeljweir@uri.edu</a> Abstract:   Carbon mitigation policy is necessary for managing climate change. Despite broad beliefs in climate change and the need for action (Pew 2019), there have only been two referendums seeking to establish a carbon policy (both in Washington State) and both have failed by large margins. In contrast, New England states and California have created successful carbon mitigation policies through their legislature, and California voters overwhelmingly voted down a measure to scrap their policy when given the option. What can explain this divergent experience? In this paper, we explore the possibility of status quo bias in public policy preferences. That is, do people prefer policies that are already in place to identical policies that are being proposed? The status quo bias/endowment effect literature is rich, but primarily focuses on private goods (Adamowicz et al. 1993), but also some public goods (Banford et al. 1980). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to look specifically at policy and the context of a ballot referendum for policy. We conduct a survey of people’s preferences for carbon mitigation policy in Rhode Island. The context of our research is the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), which was implemented in 2008 by ten states in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. RGGI established a regional cap on CO2 emissions electric generating facilities that use fossil fuels and required all power plants to purchase permits when they produce CO2. Despite this success and prominence, the reality is that few people know about this policy. We use this ignorance to our advantage to be able to ask the same population questions about approval of a hypothetical carbon mitigation policy that under one frame does not exist and under a second frame already does. To avoid deception, we additionally ask a qualifying question to ensure that anyone that actually knows about RGGI only sees the frame that the policy exists. We build on Kotchen et al. (2017), who conduct a referendum-style, contingent valuation survey to measure willingness to pay (WTP) for a carbon tax. Preliminary analysis indicates that 70.1% of those in the existing policy frame want to stay in the program versus only 59.6% of those in the new policy frame want to join the program. Further, results suggest a WTP/WTA discrepancy in carbon mitigation policy. For those given the new policy frame, we calculate average WTP is $170 more each year in electric bills to join the initiative (quite comparable to Kotchen et al.’s estimate of $177). For those given the existing policy frame, we calculate average WTA is $427 to leave the policy. These results extend prior evidence that discrepancies between WTP and WTA should be accounted for in both economic models and policy design. Further, this may provide guidance for states seeking to enact policies that voters would not approve of at the ballot box, but would support once in place.   Title: Projecting Irrigation Water Demand Authors: Jeff Mullen W4133 task: 1-1 Presenter: Jeff Mullen Presenter email: <a href="mailto:jmullen@uga.edu">jmullen@uga.edu</a> Abstract:   Future climatic conditions are anticipated to have profound effects on agricultural productivity and the demand for irrigation water that vary by location depending on resource endowments and economic conditions. Crop growth simulation models such as DSSAT can offer powerful insight into the effects of weather and management practices on agricultural production. One of the fundamental questions that must be addressed during a simulation exercise, however, is “What is the producer’s objective function?” A researcher’s choice of objective function can significantly affect the predictions derived from a modeling exercise as well as the prescriptive policy recommendations based on those predictions. The economic literature has identified numerous possible objective functions for agricultural producers, the two most prominent of which are yield maximization and profit maximization. We have currently modeled four crops– corn, cotton, peanut, and soybean – in Georgia. For each crop, we simulate county-level yield and irrigation water use for 7 irrigation management strategies under 4 future climate scenarios through the year 2100. For each year, 100 county-level weather files are developed using MarkSim for 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) – RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 – to simulate crop production. Coupling the production simulations with projected water prices and crop prices allows us to generate county-level distributions of yields, net returns, and water use for each RCP and irrigation management strategy. With our county-level distributional results for each of the nine crops, we are able to estimate the following for each of the 4 RCPs, over both time and space: 1) the economic (crop price and water price) conditions under which yield maximization and profit maximization lead to the same “optimal” irrigation management strategy; 2) thresholds for the economic parameters above which the optimal strategies for the two objective functions diverge; 3) the water price threshold above which profits under rainfed production exceed those of irrigated production; 4) expected yield impacts of climate change under optimal irrigation management; 5) expected irrigated water demand as a function of water price; and 6) the relative profitability of crops.   Title: Fall in the Sea, Eventually? A Green Paradox in Climate Adaptation for Coastal Housing Markets Authors: Lee C. Parton, Steven J. Dundas W4133 task: 1-2, 3-1 Presenter: Lee Parton Presenter email: leeparton@boisestate.edu Abstract:   Integration of science into policy is a primary challenge for climate change adaptation. Yet, when communication of climate science results in a policy signal without concurrent political action, the economic incentives created by the expectation of policy change may have unintended consequences. We examine the effect on new housing development resulting from a scientific report by a regulatory agency mandating coastal communities in North Carolina (NC) consider sea-level rise when developing new land-use policies. Estimates from our preferred triple-differences model suggest the policy announcement increased building permits by 32% in coastal NC counties. This result is supported by numerous robustness checks, including alternative controls, placebo tests, and a parcel-level model in Dare County, NC. This green paradox in coastal climate adaptation implies that hundreds of millions of dollars in additional unregulated housing was constructed in NC locations vulnerable to sea-level rise likely due incentives generated by the policy signal.   Title: Estimating preservation values for brown bears in Katmai National Park: when the marginal value of an individual matters Authors: Lynne Lewis and Leslie Richardson W4133 task: 2-1, 1-3 Presenter: Lynne Lewis Presenter email: llewis@bates.edu Abstract:   The economic benefits supported by healthy wildlife populations is important in a variety of decision-making contexts on our public lands. This has led to a number of studies examining the direct use values associated with consumptive uses of wildlife, such as fishing and hunting, non-consumptive uses of wildlife, such as wildlife viewing, as well as total economic values derived from the preservation of species, particularly rare and endangered species. The vast majority of this literature has focused on large percentage gains or avoided losses in the population of a particular species or a recreational outcome, such as hunting success. However, there are many contexts in which the estimation of marginal values is more useful for policy. For instance, questions about the benefits of increasing species population numbers above some minimum viable population requires information on incremental values. Further, land management agencies such as the National Park Service often have to determine the value the public places on an individual animal that is poached or accidentally killed. These values are used in the damage assessment and restoration process in an effort to make the public “whole” for such injuries. However, the lack of relevant economic studies on the topic often leads to a reliance on state restitution values or some sort of replacement value, which may not adequately compensate the public for the loss of wildlife resources in national parks and other federal lands. Further, questions often arise as to what sort of value people place on these animals in unique situations where visitors or the general public are able to identify and connect with individual animals through mediums like online webcam viewing, books, or symbolic adoption programs.   This research explores various approaches that can be used to determine the marginal value of an iconic individual animal, focusing on both use and passive use values. A case study utilizing unique survey data from viewers of the popular Katmai National Park & Preserve bear webcams is discussed. Using webcam survey data, we explore the contributions to value of a unique individual of a species. Much has been written about charismatic wildlife influencing conservation motivations, but almost nothing has been written about whether certain individuals within subpopulations of species have more influence on conservation motivations, willingness to pay for conservation and/or willingness to pay for viewing privileges of that individual.    We present the results of an on-line survey of bear cam viewers from the summer of 2019. As part of that survey we ask stated preference willingness-to-pay questions focused on the total economic value held for an individual bear at Katmai. In addition, we examine various factors that could influence this value, such as the ability to view the animals off-site through webcams and the ability to identify and connect with individual animals. This research has significant implications for policy and land management decisions related to wildlife. Results of this survey will also inform the design of an on-site visitor survey we expect to implement in the summer of 2020.   Title: Wildfire Smoke Avoidance Behavior Authors: Jude Bayham, Jesse Burkhardt, Christine Dimke, Kevin Berry W4133 task: 1-1, 1-3, 2-2 Presenter: Jude Bayham Presenter email: jude.bayham@colostate.edu Abstract:   Each year, hundreds of wildfires bellow smoke into the air exposing millions of people to harmful pollutants, especially in the Western US. Nationwide, wildfire smoke is responsible for over 30% of PM2.5 emissions (EPA 2016). Public health recommendations include foregoing outdoor activities and particularly strenuous activities. While there exists evidence from targeted surveys that individuals do comply with some forms of public service announcement (Sugerman et al. 2012), there is little nationwide evidence that people engage in costly avoidance behavior during smoke events (although, there is evidence that people are willing to pay to avoid smoke exposure (Richardson, Loomis and Champ 2013; Kochi et al. 2016; Jones and Berrens 2017; Jones 2018) ). We address this gap in the literature by compiling a novel dataset of daily time-use data, smoke plumes, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) to investigate whether people spend less time on outdoor activities during wildfire smoke events. Our data come from multiple sources. The American Time Use Survey (ATUS) asks a nationally representative sample of people how they spent 24 hours of their day minute by minute (ATUS 2017). The replies are coded into one of over 400 activity codes and one of 25 activity codes, which allows us to create activity categories such as recreation activities occurring outdoors. We merge the activity data with energy expenditure data to quantify the level of vigor for each activity. The ATUS is a subsample of the Current Population Survey and therefore contains detailed socioeconomic and demographic data including weekly earnings. Satellite-derived daily smoke plume data is published by the NOAA Hazard Mapping System (HMS 2018). We integrate these data with daily PM2.5 data krigged across the continental US at 15km resolution (Brey et al. 2018). We link individual ATUS respondents to smoke plume and PM2.5 data based on the county (or core-based statistical area) and the date of their diary. Our dataset spans 2006-2017 and includes 114,602 respondents. Despite the increasing frequency of large wildfires, smoke events are a fairly rare phenomenon for most US residents. Therefore, we use matching methods to estimate the effect of smoke plume exposure. Individuals are matched based on observable demographics. Individuals may avoid fire smoke by reducing the time spent on outdoor activities (intensive margin) or foregoing the activity altogether (extensive margin). We investigate avoidance behavior on the extensive margin. We estimate the model for a broad definition of outdoor activities as well as specific activities to investigate the heterogeneity in response. We use a similar specification to test our hypothesis of avoidance behavior on the intensive margin where the dependent variable is the number of minutes spent doing the activity conditional on spending at least one minute. Preliminary estimates suggest that people are 3% less likely to engage in outdoor activities when smoke plumes are present. We plan to investigate the policy-relevant question of which activities are perceived as substitutes when smoke plumes are present. We will also investigate the extent to which people substitute intertemporally. People may delay outdoor exercise until air quality improves. If smoke plumes are present for extended durations, people may become impatient or acclimate to the poor air quality and continue outdoor activities. We conclude the analysis with a partial analysis of the cost of avoidance behavior. Since the ATUS is a subsample of the CPS, we observe the weekly earnings of employed individuals at the time of the survey. We develop a quasi-travel cost method to estimate the economic damages of wildfire smoke. This paper makes several contributions to the literature on wildfire policy and economics. First, we provide nationwide evidence of smoke avoidance behavior, which implies that exposure to smoke is endogenous and empirical models associating smoke-induced emissions with health outcomes are likely underestimating the true effect (Neidell 2009; Moretti and Neidell 2011). Second, we contribute to the literature on avoidance behavior by studying a visibly salient risk. In contrast to information treatments such as the Air Quality Index used in (Ward and Beatty 2016), fire smoke can be seen, smelled, and felt in the respiratory system. Lastly, we document the challenge of working with satellite-derived smoke plume data as a source of ground-level air pollution. Many smoke plumes travel and ultimately dissipate in the upper atmosphere having little to no impact on ground-level air pollution. This caution is particularly important given the increasing popularity of satellite-derived smoke and air quality products as sources of exogenous variation.   Title: A Laboratory Comparison of Risk Mitigation Strategies in Conservation Markets Authors: Kristi Hansen, Chian Jones Ritten, Amy Nagler, Chris Bastian W4133 task: 1-1, 3-1 Presenter: Chian Jones Ritten Presenter email: chian.jonesritten@uwyo.edu Abstract:   Interest in market-based conservation programs has been growing among public land management agencies and stakeholders (Hansen et al. 2013). One such program type is habitat exchanges, which are designed to provide market-based incentives for landowners to implement science-based conservation without undergoing the relatively onerous process of establishing a conservation bank. Habitat exchanges are under development for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and other species of interest in several western U.S. states. Through a habitat exchange, buyers and sellers trade quantifiable, third-party verified units of conservation, called credits. Landowners generate credits by implementing practices that produce measurable conservation outcomes to maintain or enhance habitat for sage-grouse habitat or other species. Initial credit buyers will likely be energy companies seeking off-site compensatory mitigation for impacts from development activities that cannot be avoided, minimized, or reclaimed. Habitat exchanges are an innovative but largely untested idea. Many issues remain regarding their structure and performance. Trading institution structure coupled with risks faced by conservation providers will affect the quantity of conservation produced and the distribution of benefits between buyers and sellers. To create a successful exchange, it is crucial to establish trading institutions and incentives appropriate to the resource from program inception. Yet many questions regarding efficient market institutions for exchanges remain unaddressed. In particular, we know from agricultural market research that the various risks borne by sellers in the production of conventional agricultural commodities impact market outcomes (Menkhaus et al. 2007; Phillips et al. 2014). How does the post-production risk of credit failure—the risk that conservation credits fail to maintain measurable habitat improvements over their contract life—further impact market outcomes? In cases where this credit failure risk is significant, how should a market-based conservation program be structured to both encourage landowner participation and increase measurable conservation? Lamb et al. (2019) find that credit failure risk significantly reduces habitat credit production and trade in this market environment. They further find that a private party risk mitigation strategy of buyers reimbursing sellers for production costs on failed units could mitigate these impacts. Specifically, reimbursing sellers for production costs on credits that fail to maintain habitat quality for their contract life can significantly mitigate reductions in conservation production resulting from this risk. In this study we build on their findings to explore whether an insurance instrument could further improve market efficiency. We compare the relative market efficiency of two mechanisms for mitigating the risk of post-production credit failure in habitat exchanges: cost reimbursement (buyers automatically reimburse sellers when credits fail post-transaction) and insurance (where participants choose ex ante whether to buy insurance). We also explore whether market efficiency improves more if sellers versus buyers bear the risk of credit failure (and thus choose whether to buy insurance); and how buyers and sellers respond to an actuarially fair versus subsidized insurance premium. We implement a simplified private negotiation laboratory market to assess the relative impact of seller cost reimbursement and an insurance instrument on market outcomes (quantity traded, price, overall earnings, distribution of earnings between buyers and sellers) in the presence of credit failure risk. Our questions and objectives suggest six treatments (all in the presence of credit failure risk) that vary by who bears credit failure risk (buyer versus seller), risk mitigation policy (reimbursement versus insurance) and, for the insurance treatments, whether the premium is actuarially fair or subsidized. Experimental procedures follow standard practices (Davis and Holt 1993) and relate to previous research (Menkhaus et al. 2007; Phillips et al. 2014; and others). Our experimental market consists of a private negotiation setting, where subjects participate as randomly selected buyers or sellers and trade a commodity referred to as a “unit.” Each unit represents a conservation credit traded in a conservation market setting. We conducted 5 experimental sessions for each of the treatments in our design. Participants receive an average of approximately $40 in compensation for a two-hour time commitment, depending on their performance. Preliminary results show that seller earnings are higher with reimbursement than an actuarially fair insurance policy. This is true whether they bear the risk of credit failure or not. Of the reimbursement and actuarially fair insurance treatments, quantity traded, quantity produced, and seller earnings are all highest when buyers reimburse sellers for the production costs of failed units. Earnings are more evenly distributed between buyers and sellers, and prices are lower, when buyers bear the risk of credit failure, regardless of whether a reimbursement or insurance policy is implemented. Ongoing data analysis includes regressions using convergence analysis (see for example Noussair et al. 1995), allowing us to test the significance of market outcome differences across treatments. Without mechanisms in place to mitigate credit failure risk, habitat exchanges and other market-based environmental programs could result in much less conservation than hoped for. In the extreme, habitat exchanges could fail to attract sufficient landowners to supply credits, ultimately dooming them to fail. We will discuss the implications of our results regarding the relative merits of reimbursement insurance in the real-world conditions likely to prevail in habitat exchanges across the western U.S.   Title: Congestion Pricing for Outdoor Recreation: An Application to Shoreline Recreation in the Gulf Coast Authors: Roger H. von Haefen and Frank Lupi W4133 task: 1-3, 3-1 Presenter: Frank Lupi Presenter email: lupi@msu.edu Abstract:   Coastal beaches are generally maintained in public trust around the world.  As such, recreational access is typically free to all, and overuse and congestion often result.  This paper estimates efficient congestion prices for coastal beaches in the U.S. Gulf Coast region.  Following Timmins and Murdock (JEEM, 2007), we model congestion as the outcome of a Nash bargaining game in which individuals make choices given expectations about the decisions that others make.  We employ a novel panel data, instrumental variable estimator that leverages the properties of the equilibrium sorting process and one of the largest and most detailed recreational data sets ever assembled.  After simulating the optimal congestion prices for the Gulf region that are either uniform throughout the year and Gulf Coast or varying by quarter and year, we evaluate their efficiency and distributional properties as well as their revenue-raising potential.    Title: Estimating the value of threatened species abundance dynamics: a structural econometric approach using choice experiment data Authors: David M. Kling, David J. Lewis, Steven J. Dundas, and Daniel K. Lew W4133 task: 2-1, 2-2 Presenter: Steven J. Dundas Presenter email: steven.dundas@oregonstate.edu Abstract:   Natural capital valuation is a rapidly-growing area of economics. For extracted resources, like ground water, recent methodological advances account for the influence of stock dynamics on value (e.g., Fenichel and Abbot 2016). Bringing the same dynamic perspective to value forms of natural capital with primarily non-consumptive benefits remains a significant gap in the literature. Threatened species are one economically-significant example. Most research apply non-market valuation methods, typically based on stated preference data, to value outcomes for threatened species abundance at some future date (Lew 2015). These outcomes are typically either a non-marginal population change , or the attainment of official recovery status (e.g., de-listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act) (Lew et al. 2010). One recent study investigates whether the public values differences in the path taken by threatened species abundance along the way to a final outcome, for example a quick versus slow rebuilding trajectory (Lewis et al. 2019). None of these approaches provide information on the flow of non-consumptive value provided by threatened species at the level of detail needed to be included alongside market values in benefit-cost and capital valuation studies. We introduce a method for estimating parameters of an intertemporal non-consumptive benefit function from choice experiment data. To illustrate our approach, we draw on a recently-completed choice experiment survey of household preferences for recovering Oregon Coast Coho (OCC) salmon, a species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (Lewis et al. 2019). A key feature of the experimental design is that households were shown the time path of expected OCC salmon abundance under different alternative management scenarios in each choice card. These paths were generated using a known functional form. As a result, we observe preferences for management options that vary in salmon abundance over time (i.e., annually) instead of only the end result. Other attributes of the experiment include the official recovery status of OCC salmon, recreational fishing limits, and management program cost. Importantly, Lewis et al. (2019) find that respondents to the general population survey did not value changes in recreational limits, suggesting that non-consumptive values were a primary driver of the social benefits derived from increases in salmon abundance. We fit a non-linear random utility model that includes the present value of utility accumulated at the individual-level from dynamic changes in abundance, along with other OCC salmon outcome attributes. To address household-level discounting, we compare results from estimating the average discount rate jointly with other indirect utility parameters with specifications where we fix the rate at a level elicited separately for each household in the original survey. We then scale up our preferred specification for households to a social non-consumptive benefit function by adjusting for survey non-response and then applying a conservative bound on the extent of the market (the U.S. Pacific Northwest and parts of Northern California). The result is a money-metric social non-consumptive benefit function over OCC salmon abundance, recovery status, and other attributes, which we view as being suitable for inclusion in natural capital valuation and policy analysis. We find evidence that survey respondents have strong time preferences for achieving gains in salmon abundance gains quicker. Our method for integrating non-market valuation and capital theory provides a roadmap for bringing non-consumptive value into the contemporary economics of natural capital (e.g. such as Fenichel et al. 2016). An important feature of our approach is the addition of credible counterfactual paths of expected stock abundance to widely-used choice experiment designs for threatened species valuation. Applications to other ecosystem service flows are possible.   Title: Variable uncertainty in free-form environmental valuation models Authors: Rob Johnston, Klaus Moeltner, Zhenyu Yao W4133 task: 1-1, 2-1, 3-2 Presenter: Klaus Moeltner Presenter email: moeltner@vt.edu Abstract:   In this EPA-funded work on water quality in New England we introduce a novel valuation methodology that allows survey respondent to examine water quality across a large watershed via an interactive map, in addition to receiving summary statistics on cleanup outcomes for a given policy scenario. Respondents then answer a standard referendum-style question if they would be willing to pay a specified bid to achieve the water quality outcomes shown on the map. Concurrently, we developed a Bayesian econometric model search approach that determines which of the many possible choice heuristics (e.g. conditions at a specific location or overall for a variety of quality indicators) is the main driver of respondents' choices. We show the significant improvements in the accuracy and efficiency of predicted WTP the model search algorithm brings over a \kitchen sink" approach that estimates a single model with all possible variables included. We believe that this econometric framework will be useful for many modern, GIS-intensive stated preference applications, where respondents are given considerable freedom and flexibility to apply spatially informed choice heuristics.   Title: The Value of Ecosystems: Bat Population Crashes and Agriculture in the US Authors: Dale T. Manning and Amy Ando W4133 task: 2-1 Presenter: Dale T. Manning Presenter email: dale.manning@colostate.edu Abstract:  Ecosystems, or ecological capital, supply valuable natural inputs to many sectors of production. Despite creating economic value, ecosystems often lack a market price while providing public goods and services. As a result, private decision-makers underinvest in their maintenance. In this paper, we estimate the ow value of an underappreciated service provided by a non-market ecological capital. Specifically, bat populations supply agricultural producers with unpriced pest control. Using the sudden arrival and spread of White-nose Syndrome (WNS), which nearly extinguishes infected bat populations, we quantify the impact of bat population collapse on agricultural land rents in US counties and find that rents after a WNS outbreak fall by nearly 4%. We also find that corn yields fall while agricultural input expenses increase. This suggests that producers can imperfectly substitute for the loss of unpriced capital by investing in costly alternatives. We use the reduced form estimate to calculate a welfare cost as producers lose the unpriced natural input. Allowing total acres to be endogenous, we find that economic surplus falls in WNS-infected counties by nearly $600,000 per county-year. This implies that if WNS arrives to all counties in the analysis (n = 2,328), annual costs to the agricultural sector could reach $1.4 billion. Results are robust across specifications and have important policy and economic implications. First, many bat populations roost on public lands and measures exist to control the spread of WNS. Therefore, public land managers can play a role in preventing or slowing the spread of WNS. More generally, the economically significant value suggests that economists should continue to explore how market economic value depends on unpriced natural inputs. Further, spatially linking ecosystem and economic data provides a fruitful avenue for estimating the importance of ecosystems to the market economy. This work contributes to w4133 Task 2-1 because it provides an example of combining agricultural data with ecosystem data to estimate a non-market value. It also has implications for Task 1-2 (Economic Analysis of Natural Hazards (_re, invasive species, climate change)) because ecosystem management on public lands will become increasingly challenging in the face of climate change.   Title: Wildfire Threatens Outdoor Recreation in the Western US Authors: Jacob Gellman, Margaret Walls, Matthew Wibbenmeyer W4133 task: 1-3, 2-2 Presenter: Matthew Wibbenmeyer Presenter email: wibbenmeyer@rff.org Abstract:   Outdoor recreation provides considerable economic surplus to participants, and contributes substantially to overall US GDP. In the western US, outdoor recreation on public lands has increased in recent years. However, this growth in outdoor recreation has coincided with increasing prevalence of wildfires and wildfire smoke within western states. In many areas, wildfire season overlaps with peak outdoor recreation season, potentially disrupting recreation activity and hurting communities dependent on recreation-related tourism. In this paper, we combine administrative data on outdoor recreation on federal lands in the western US with spatial data on wildfires and wildfire smoke to study how wildfires are affecting outdoor recreation in the region. Our recreation data are daily campground reservation data collected from Recreation.gov, a website through which campers can make reservations to approximately 3,700 federally-managed facilities across the US. The data include nearly 25 million transactions from 3.1 million unique users of 1,000 facilities within the western US from 2008 to 2016. We merged the camping data with daily spatial data from NOAA describing the extent of wildfire smoke, and daily data from NASA describing areas with actively burning wildfires. Wildfires and wildfire smoke negatively affect the welfare of outdoor recreationists in two ways. First, campers may be directly harmed by exposure to smoke. Second, campers may decide to cancel or change their plans in response to fire and smoke, or be forced to cancel due to closures. Our paper provides results that address both channels. First, we document the extent to which wildfires and smoke affected campers on public lands in the western US between 2008-2016. Second, we identify effects of wildfire and wildfire smoke on avoidance behavior. We aggregate daily camping reservation records by facility (i.e., individual campground) and estimate panel fixed effects regressions of measures of campground use as a function of measures of nearby wildfire and smoke conditions. We find that within the western U.S., an average of approximately 400,000 campground visitor-days—approximately 5% of all visitor-days—were affected by moderate to high density smoke over the course of our study period, while 1.5 percent of visitor-days during our study period were within 20 km of an actively burning fire. Both smoke and fire lead to averting behavior. For example, presence of a wildfire burning within 20 km of a campground increased cancellations by 22%, while Smoky conditions increase cancellations by 4.4 percent. Some of the decrease in campground use may be due to campground closures, especially in the case of nearby fires. Regardless, campers displaced by fire—whether through closures or by choice—are likely to incur welfare losses. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of wildfires in the western US. Much attention is being paid to potential property damages from wildfires and problems associated with continued development in the wildland-urban interface. Our results suggest that there may also be negative impacts to outdoor recreation. This research contributes to a growing body of literature using “big data” to examine how climate and climate-related outcomes affect outdoor recreation.

Impact Statements

Impacts Objective 1 Colorado State University: Our work on the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program has led to discussions with groundwater managers in other regions interested in participating in the program. Off-grid electricity providers have used our work on the willingness to pay for water to consider using water pumping as a key use of electricity in rural communities. Our work on the economic and biophysical conditions for deficit irrigation has led the publication of a tool for producers to assess the benefits of deficit irrigation: https://data.nal.usda.gov/dataset/economic-model-deficit-irrigation Mississippi State University: Grant obtained: Yun, S. D.(PI), with K. Coatney, B. Strickland, S. Garrett, “Management of Smart Invasive Species Using Spatial Optimal Control: A Pilot Study of Wild Pigs in the Delta,” Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station (MAFES)-Strategic Research Initiative (SRI) Grant, $21,000, 1/1/2020-12/31/2020. Grant obtained: J. Lehrter (PI), R. Baker, J. Cebrian, B. Dzwonkowski, L. Kalin, L. Lowe, D. Petrolia, S. Powers, D. Tian, S. Yun. “Building Resilience for Oysters, Blue Crabs, and Spotted Seatrout to Environmental Trends and Variability in the Gulf of Mexico.” NOAA RESTORE Science Program. September 1, 2019 – August 31, 2024, $2,887,250. Oregon State University: Dundas participated in a state-level advisory group across six public meetings in 2019 in Oregon to help develop strategies to manage coastal land given threats from erosion and sea-level rise. Findings from Dundas and Lewis (2020) and other on-going research on coastal land use in Oregon were presented to stakeholders and state officials considering changes to current land-use laws. (Objectives 1, 3) Dundas is co-PI of a new 3-year (2019 - 2022) interdisciplinary grant funded by NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) Optimizing the Ecosystem Services of US Pacific Northwest Coastal Beaches and Dunes through Adaptation Planning ($748,536). (Objectives 1, 3) Dundas is co-PI of a new 2-year (2019 - 2021) interdisciplinary grant funded by NOAA Coastal and Climate Applications (COCA) Assessing Climate-Related Risk and Adaptation Options for Water Suppliers along the Oregon ($299,449). (Objectives 1, 3) Dundas is co-PI of a 4-year (2018 - 2022) interdisciplinary grant funded by Oregon Sea Grant Envisioning a Resilient Oregon Coast: Co-developing Alternative Futures for Adaptation Planning and Decision-Making ($873,628). (Objectives 1, 3) Lewis is lead PI (with w4133 member Brent Sohngen) of a 4-year (2017-2021) USDA NIFA Foundational Program grant Adaptation to Climate Change in Forestry – A Plot-Level Econometric Analysis of Forest Management in the Conterminous United States. ($500,000). (Objective 1, 3) Lewis is lead PI of a 3-year (2018 - 2021) USDA Forest Service grant RPA Land-Use Modeling through a joint venture agreement with USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station (Forest Service Agreement No. 18-JV-11330155-023; $277,459). (Objective 1) Kling is co-PI of a 3-year NOAA Ocean Acidification Program award Vulnerability and adaptation to ocean acidification among Pacific Northwest mussel and oyster stakeholders. ($672,965). (Objective 3) Kling is lead-PI of a grant from the High Desert Partnership Bioeconomic analysis of carp control. ($44,901). (Objective 1, 3). Kling is lead PI on an ECAS Federal (NOAA subaward) grant Measuring Alaska saltwater charter sport fishing demand using revealed preference methods. ($45,198) (Objective 1, 2). University of Georgia: The results of the National Park demand and visitation study indicated that total visits to National Parks in the continental U.S. could see an average increase of about 1.2 million visitors per year through 2026. This relatively large increase in visitation suggests that congestion problems already experienced at many parks may get worse. Congestion and overuse strain already limited operation and maintenance budgets and can lead to environmental damage to park sites and reductions in visitor satisfaction. Our projections of future visitation to National Parks can help the National Park Service to better prepare for dealing with increased visitation and congestion issues and problems. The results of the sea-level rise studies suggest that several interacting influences contribute to patterns of shoreline armoring; in particular, shoreline slope and the presence of armoring on a neighboring parcel are strong predictors of armoring. The model also suggests that continued sea level rise and coastal population growth could trigger future increases in armoring, emphasizing the importance of considering dynamic patterns of armoring when evaluating the potential effects of sea level rise. For example, evolving distributions of armoring should be considered in predictions of future salt marsh migration. The modeling approach developed in this study is adaptable to assessing patterns of hard armoring in other regions. With improved understanding of hard armoring distributions, sea level rise response plans can be fully informed to design more efficient scenarios for both urban development and coastal ecosystems. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign: Research by Liqing Li and Amy Ando about the economic impact of bison restoration was presented at the AAEA meeting in summer 2019. “The Impact of Bison Reintroduction on Local Economies.” Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA (poster). Ando secured two new grants with collaborators, including one W4133 member in Portland Oregon. o 2019 – 2023. Vorosmarty, C.J., A.W. Ando, A.K. Jain, J.M. Melillo, and D.J. Wuebbles, co-PIs. “INFEWS/T1: Climate-induced extremes on the food, energy, water nexus (C-FEWS) and the role of engineered and natural infrastructure.” National Science Foundation. $2,499,998. o 2020. Ando, A.W. and S. Dissanayake, co-PIs. “Estimating the values of prairie grassland habitat: A choice experiment study on preferences, charismatic megafauna, and visual information.” U.S. Department of Agriculture. $76,624. University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Results from Riley et al. (2019) show that land cover associated with land retirement programs may have lower net groundwater recharge from precipitation than crop production. Results are important for policymakers, and suggest that enrollment in easement programs (e.g., Conservation Reserve Program) should include these impacts in an assessment of program effectiveness, particularly in areas where aquifer conditions are an important policy issue. Received funding to analyze the relationship between energy use and groundwater extraction using a sample of Nebraska irrigation wells. Results will provide more information about the sources of heterogeneity in energy-use efficiency of groundwater extraction. Utah State University: The target audiences for the project include academics, students, policymakers, journalists, and the general public. The study results have been disseminated to key audiences over the current reporting period. In addition to influencing academic audiences via publication in refereed journals the National Monuments work was featured in the Washington Post (January 2019). An current project addressing congestion in National Parks also generated press interest, and was featured on the front page of the Salt Lake Tribune (May) and on KNRS radio (May). University of Wyoming: Habitat conservation exchange development in Wyoming being impacted by our research, particularly as it relates to credit failure risk and market design for sage grouse habitat. These publications and this research is informing design of Habitat Conservation Markets for Sage Grouse right now in Wyoming, particularly. Current policy for pollinator habitat likely to be ineffective according to our analysis of current policy. Our research indicates that policy designed in the manner our research tests would improve pollinator habitat and pollinator populations. Virginia Tech: Bayesian Nonlinear Meta-Regression:I continued to share results and programming code with colleagues at the U.S. EPA, and helped them derive and interpret watershed-specific results. Free-form choice experiment: I presented the modeling framework and preliminary results at two national conferences to a mixed audience of peers, practitioners, and resource managers. Objective 2 Louisiana State University: Work regarding the value of beach conditions information presented at Center for Natural Resource Economics & Policy (CNREP) triennial meeting. Pollinator conservation work presented at the Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) annual meeting. Mississippi State University: S. Yun (PI), C. Hellwinckel, M. Interis, D. Petrolia, S. Rush, E. Yu. "Sustainable Bioenergy Production and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services." USDA NIFA-AFRI. January 1, 2019 – December 31, 2021, $468,998. North Carolina State University: Research deepened our understanding of the likely economic damages of climate change in the United States. Research findings were disseminated to government agencies, policies makers and the lay public through press releases and press coverage at leading news outlet in North Carolina (WUNC radio, Raleigh’s News and Observer) University of Florida: Increased public knowledge on values of springs in Florida by delivering invited talk on “Protecting Springs to Maximize Social and Environmental Benefits” at the 4th Annual Florida Agricultural Policy Outlook Conference, Florida (2020 Feb). University of Georgia: The recreation demand modeling results in the National Forest (NF) designated wilderness study displayed evidence of price-inelastic demand (Ep= -0.72) suggesting that increasing future access costs (e.g., entrance fees, travel related costs) will have a less than proportional effect on visitation. Despite the large sample sizes, we found income to have no significant effect on group trip demand. This suggests that NF wilderness visitation cannot be considered an inferior or luxury good. The model and results presented showed that the economic value derived from 2005-2014 visitors to NF wilderness is consistent with previous studies at about $70-90 per person per visit. This value is the highest among the general site types provided in the NF recreation inventory. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign: Research by Amy Ando and Bryan Parthum on the values of nutrient reduction in surface waters (Estimating Values of Water Quality: Local and Distant, Rural and Urban.” (B. Parthum and A.W. Ando) was presented twice. o November 2019, Amy Ando gave a presentation at a joint seminar of Duke University, NC State University, and the Research Triangle Institute – the Triangle Resource and Environmental Economics (TREE) seminar series in Durham, NC. o April 2019, Bryan Parthum presented at the “Social Cost of Water Pollution Workshop” at Cornell University. University of Rhode Island: This research contributes to the literature on individual attitude towards offshore wind energy production and specifically to literature on its impact on visitation rate and distribution of recreational activity. Prior research mainly consists of surveys of European communities (e.g. Voltair et al 2017, Ladenberg and Dubgaard 2007, Ladenberg 2010). All prior research about American attitudes toward offshore wind have been purely hypothetical in nature, as no offshore wind turbines have been installed before Block Island (e.g. Laundry et al 2012, Krueger et al 2011). Our research will be among the first to understand the impact on number of trips and choice of recreational activities due to actual installed turbines in the country. We anticipate this research to provide policy makers with valuable information that can aid with the process of siting and development of future wind energy projects. Additionally, our research results will help concerned citizens, tourism councils and other stakeholders better understand how public attitudes towards wind farms could impact recreational choices. This research contributes to the literature on the public acceptance of solar farms establishment in USA while there are different economic benefits schemes available to the community. Prior research mainly consists of surveys of European communities (Walker, Russel, and Kurz, 2017; Walker, Wiersma, and Bailey, 2014). These studies find a higher acceptance of renewable energy farms in the communities where a portion of the revenues generated comes back to the community as a community benefit. So, there exists a gap in the literature on how communities around the U.S. react to different types of benefit schemes while making decisions regarding solar farm establishments in their community. Our research will possibly be among the first ones to understand this phenomenon in the U.S. To support USDA grant, we formed an advisory group comprised of state and local government, NGO, and industry leaders in the arena of utility-scale solar development. The group informs our research efforts and builds outreach channels for our research outputs. The forthcoming impacts involve a manuscript preparation to be submitted to a peer reviewed journal and dissemination of the project outcomes via Cooperative Extension Service in Wyoming and the region. Here the methodology is purposely designed for application to a variety of watersheds such that the likelihood of implementing Best Management Practices for nonpoint pollution mitigation via the NRCS and CES can be determined. Objective 3 Colorado State University: The completion of the Finney County hydroeconomic model has sparked interest in replicating it for regions of Nebraska and Texas. This should inform the design of groundwater management policies across the region. Our institutional model has generated interest in creating a generalizable model that can anticipate areas of water stress as a result of climate change. Our models of wildfire suppression may be used to influence the development of an updated wildfire decision support system. Mississippi State University: Yun, S. D., V. G. Gude (PI), A. Kim, H. Cho, M. Marufuzzaman, and M. L. Tagert, “Resilient Biomass-Combined Heat and Power Systems for Rural Communities,” USDA-National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI), $1,000,000. (selected for funding) University of Georgia: Our review of the probabilities of natural hazard risk indicates that empirical applications have produced notable advances in measuring elements of risky choice, such as subjective probabilities associated with various states, representations of outcomes levels across states, measures of risk and time preference, and other descriptors of the context or framing of choice. However, econometric identification continues to be problematic. The chief problem is that various elements that describe evaluations of prospects are likely to share a common, unobserved component that renders them correlated and endogenous. Applications that have purported to measure critical decision parameter usually invoke multiple methods, such as experiments to measure risk preferences and surveys to measure other parameters. Mixing methods often presumes that parameters are transferable across context, though efforts can be taken to mimic context. In any event, surveys and experiments will continue to be primary methods to collect empirical data on risky choice. Results of the renewable resource power generation study suggest increasing the net capacity in the national grid of electricity supplied by renewable resources, on average, leads to longer power system disruptions (for example, since wind and solar energy flows can fluctuate widely even on a daily basis). However, a significant amount of capacity would need to be supplied by non-hydro renewables before large-scale power system disruptions are realized. For more than half of the states investigated in this study, the cost-forecast model results suggest that if the percentage of net capacity supplied by renewable resources exceed 30%, then the disruptions in power reliability may go from lasting a few minutes to lasting a few days. The economic costs associated with these projected disruptions could far exceed what customers currently pay per kWh of electricity delivered, ranging from $43 -$109 per kWh of electricity not delivered. Thus, as the United States continues to transition to a renewable energy resource economy over time (e.g., relying less and less on exhaustible, nonrenewable fossil fuels to supply electricity) there will be a continual need to assess both the benefits and costs of increased net capacity additions from renewable resources such as wind and solar. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign: Gramig was an invited speaker at the US EPA-USDA Workshop on Enhanced Efficiency Fertilizers (EEF) to launch new Innovation Challenge in October 2019. His talk, “Socio-Economic Considerations for the Adoption of Enhanced Efficiency Fertilizers,” addressed private economic conditions that would support more widespread adoption of EEFs and also the importance to be mindful of the relative cost of achieving agricultural nutrient loss abatement goals using EEFs instead of other available practices or technologies. Gramig was an invited panelist at the Farm Journal Trust in Food Symposium in January 2020. Together with collaborators Prof. Linda Prokopy (Purdue) and Dr. Kristin Floress (USDA-USFS), we spoke with private sector firms along agricultural value chain, food companies and producers about the implications of a recently published meta-review (Prokopy, et al. (2019)) on the factors that influence adoption of agricultural conservation practice and regenerative agricultural systems. University of Rhode Island: Grants awarded related to W4133 activities: Lead social scientist. “Hay Tao (Enhanced Enabling Conditions for Biodiversity Conservation) Program”. USAID. Total award to URI: $2.7 million. This project will design and test a PES program for carbon and non-carbon ecosystem services. Co-PI. “Philippines Fish Right Program.” USAID. Total award to URI: $24.9 million. This project will test how increasing entrepreneurial skills among women will affect resource management and behavior. Co-PI "Integrating Ecosystem Services Functions and Values into Decision Making in the Narragansett Bay Watershed". US EPA. URI portion: $278,036.

Date of Annual Report: 04/15/2021

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 03/03/2021 - 03/05/2021
Period the Report Covers: 03/01/2020 - 02/28/2021

Participants

Participants (72)

Officers

Matthew Interis Mississippi State University
Steven Dundas Oregon State University
Xiang Bi University of Florida
Ken White Utah State University

Presenters

Amy Ando University of Illinois
Greg Boudreax US Army Corps of Engineers
Emma Bravard Iowa State University
Sahan Dissanayake Portland State University
Don English US Forest Service
Tony Good US Geological Survey
Amila Hadziomerspahic Oregon State University
Hsin-Chieh Hsieh University of Illinois
Robert Johnston Clark University
Jake Kennedy Portland State University
Sonja Kolstoe US Forest Service
Corey Lang University of Rhode Island
Frank Lupi Michigan State University
Dale Manning Colorado State University
Klaus Moeltner Virginia Tech University
Julie Mueller Northern Arizona University
Noelwah Netusil Reed College
Frederick Nyanzu University of Illinois
Jerrod Penn Louisiana State University
Brian Vander Naald Drake University
Roger von Haefen North Carolina State University
Seong Yun Mississippi State University

Other Attendees

Jennifer Alix-Garcia Oregon State University
Kelvin Amon Mississippi State University
Jude Bayham Colorado State University
Kathleen Bell University of Maine
John Bergstrom University of Georgia
Dan Bigelow Montana State University
Marley Bonacquist-Curran Cornell University
Jesse Burkhardt Colorado State University
Frank Casey US Geological Survey
Alison Cohan The Nature Conservancy
Shannon Fluharty Virginia Tech University
Vasundhara Gaur University of Rhode Island
Ben Gramig University of Illinois
Wuyang Hu Ohio State University
Paul Jakus Utah State University
Jeff Kline US Forest Service
Marissa Lee Colorado State University
Lynne Lewis Bates College
Pengfei Liu University of Rhode Island
Luanne Lohr US Forest Service
John Loomis Colorado State University
Kerry Lynn
Don McLeod University of Wyoming
Stale Navrud Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Tom Ndebele Clark University
Nanette Nelson University of Montana
Stephen Newbold University of Wyoming
George Parsons University of Delaware
Lee Parton Boise State University
Jayash Paudel Boise State University
Dan Petrolia Mississippi State University
Kelsey Poisal Salisbury State University
Neelam Poudyal University of Kentucky
Lauren Rabe Reed College
Sonia Refulio-Coronado University of Rhode Island
Leslie Richardson US National Park Service
Mani Rouhi Rad Clemson University
Kristen Swedberg Virginia Tech University
Emi Uchida University of Rhode Island
Kelly Wallace Colorado State University
Margaret Walls Resources for the Future
Travis Warziniack US Forest Service
Eric White US Forest Service
Matt Wibbenmeyer Resources for the Future
Matt Winden University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Zhenyu Yao Virginia Tech University

Brief Summary of Minutes

Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

Current President Matthew Interis called the meeting to order at 5:00 pm on 03/04/2021.

First order of business was to elect two new officers, one incoming Secretary and one to replace Xiang Bi as Vice President. Jerrod Penn nominated himself as the Vice President. Jesse Burkhardt nominated himself as the Secretary. There were no other nominations and there was unanimous support for their nominations.

Second order of business was to discuss the upcoming re-charter for the group.

Dale Manning suggested adding specific tasks on the application of nonmarket valuation on the integrated modelling of water.

Amy Ando suggested adding environmental justice and distribution of the cost and benefits, non-valuation to support racial justice.

Julie Mueller suggested adding valuation methods and environmental justice as a new task.

Roger von Haefen suggested including natural hazards topics like wildfires, coastal resilience in the West.

Dale Manning and Xiang Bi suggest a focus on climate change adaptation.

Klaus Moeltner suggested human adaptation and environmental justice and Frank Lupi adds distributional effects and barriers related to this topic.

Jennifer Alix-Garcia suggested benefit-transfer as a method and include adjustments to BCA to accommodate distributional assumptions.

Klaus Moeltner suggests keeping methodology as central theme using example of a next generation of benefits transfer with more emphasis on the distributional impact.

Benefit-cost methodology was discussed by Jerrod Penn, Jennifer Alix-Garcia, Klaus Moeltner and Frank Lupi. It was also noted for the need to align with preferences in terms of the objectives on the west region.

It was suggested broadly that we ask for potential input from reviewers and related agencies (i.e., Patty Champ). Based on the existing objectives, adjust the tasks into the current main objectives based on responses received. Also solicit advice from our Liaison to USDA (Ken White/Utah State)

John Bergstrom suggested looking at current NIFA’s objectives and themes when reformulating our objectives.

Kathleen Bell suggested we acknowledge linkages (coauthors and collaborations) from this multi-state project among universities and various agencies. Also to demonstrate impacts of the project by highlighting the interactions and collaborations with various agencies.

Frank Lupi suggests setting up a meeting with our Liaison and NIFA officer.

John Bergstrom noted that we may want letters of support or to indicate external reviewers from various agencies that use the research generated from the project.

3) Third order of business was to discuss plans for next year’s meeting

In-person is preferred – timeframe February to early March

Can wait a bit to decide (usually need six month ahead of time with hotel)

Matt Interis will share the budgets with Steven Dundas

Steven Dundas proposed Bend, OR as a potential site for 2022 meeting and others seemed agreeable to this suggestion.

At the conclusion of this meeting, Matthew Interis concludes his three-year officer rotation (thank you, Matt!), Steven Dundas rotates from Vice-President to President, Jerrod Penn begins his term as Vice-President, and Jesse Burkhardt begins his term as Secretary.

The meeting was adjourned at 5:35 pm.

Accomplishments

Accomplishments   Objective 1: Resource Management Colorado State University: We concluded work on the Ogallala Coordinated Agricultural Project (CAP) grant.  The concluding meetings were well attended and the project overall elevated awareness and interest in groundwater management opportunities. We began work to value the private benefits and costs of soil organic carbon on working lands. Mississippi State University: Investigator Petrolia and graduate student Shea Gould investigated the impact on housing prices of natural-hazard mitigation actions.  Work focused on hurricane-prone counties in coastal Alabama.  Graduate student completed thesis and graduated. North Carolina State University: Research by von Haefen (NC State) and Dundas (Oregon State) quantified the economic costs to coastal recreational anglers from climate change over the next century.  Two journal articles and one extension publication were generated.  Ongoing research examines the interplay of climate change, air pollution and coastal recreational fishing. Northern Arizona University: Julie Mueller is the Lead Principal Investigator for a, National Science Foundation Build and Broaden grant, “Build and Broaden: Advancing fundamental knowledge of social, behavioral, and economic responses to pandemics in minority communities,” $49,912, awarded August 2020-September 2022. The workshop will engage researchers from a Hispanic Serving Institution to collaborate on projects incorporating environmental justice challenges into non-market valuation. The project also engages tribal communities to develop new theories for the future of sustainable tourism. Oregon State University: Alix-Garcia and collaborators published a paper showing how the availability of free, remotely sensed data can reduce deforestation.   Dundas and Lewis published a paper estimating non-market benefits for erosion protection and potential for spillover effects in Oregon’s coastal housing market that can help inform better decision-making and policies for communities to adapt to climate change. Dundas and a collaborator (former PhD student Jason Beasley) published a paper modeling the private adaptation decisions of shoreline property owners facing a land-use restrictions and sea-level rise. Our results suggest spatial interactions, including peer effects, and potential policy changes are the most significant potential drivers of coastal land use change in Oregon. Dundas and collaborator (w4133 participant Lee Parton) published a paper identifying perverse incentives and unintended consequences of anticipated land use policy changes related to sea-level rise. We show a green paradox effect that more housing was built in high-risk coastal areas quickly after the announcement of a policy change but before any change took place. These results suggest unintended behavioral responses by individuals to economic incentives may undermine land-use policies aimed at protecting collective public interests.      Lewis and collaborators published a paper that examines how climate adaptation using forest management will affect wildlife habitat for species of conservation concern along the Pacific coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California. The paper examines how adaptation to climate change and a carbon price alter wildlife habitat through the altering of forest harvest rotations and the types of forests that are replanted. Pennsylvania State University: Michael Jacobson worked on a project focused on forest plantations in Africa. The provide income, foreign exchange, rural livelihood opportunities. Trees can also provide ecosystem services. Jacobson and Ciolkosz (2020) explores the value-added products from wood pellets as innovative technology to meet energy needs renewably. Chahal et al. (2020) explores the process of commercially debarking wood and using the bark material as a value added product. Jacobson and Ham (2020) examines the problems with agricultural technology adoption. In this case the role of fertilizer trees as soil replenishment technology in Zambia is examined. Karen Fisher-Vanden and Douglas Wrenn conducted research this year that has resulted in an improvement in our understanding of climate change impacts in a number of areas through integrated modeling that captures multisector dynamics and integrated impacts across sectors: (1) how water scarcity in the U.S. West affects the integrated energy-water-land system; (2) how water institutions in the U.S. West affect the efficient allocation of scarce water across uses/sectors; (3) how changes in temperature and precipitation can affect the reliability of power systems. Zaveri, Wrenn, and Fisher-Vanden (2020) examines the impact of weather shocks and irrigation availability on short-term migration made by Indian households. In our empirical model, we use micro-level household data from rural India. In developing countries households often use short-term migration as a means of insurance smoothing out income shocks at the household level. This is especially true for small, farming households who are subject to weather shocks that impact household income. In our research, we specifically look at how different types of irrigation impacts short-term migration decisions where the differences in irrigation were based on how consistently available those sources of water were - i.e., deep, fossil-water aquifers provide a much more reliable and consistent source of water relative to more shallow acquirers and surface-water sources. Our results show that households with access to fossil-water aquifers are much less likely to send out short-term migrants. We also find that following a rainfall shock these households see no change in their migration rates whereas households without this type of access increase their migration rates. From a policy perspective this is an issue given that most fossil-water aquifers are unregulated and thus their long-term viability is uncertain. Daniel Brent has several projects that investigate the role of price and non-price factors in resource management. These projects primarily focus on water resources to estimate drivers of heterogeneity in demand elasticity as well as behavioral, social, and cognitive determinants of consumption. Projects under this goal include: Brent et al. (2020) find that the content of the normative message is a driver of the results, and that nudges can be better optimized to increase water conservation, particularly among lower-use households. Aggregate savings can increase by roughly 40%. Brent (Working Paper) finds that prices increase the probability of adopting drought-resistant landscape and have important long-term consequences for water demand. Brent and Wichman (Working Paper) find little evidence for the interaction of social comparisons and water prices, suggesting the mechanisms are primarily moral costs. Katherine Zipp - Rice et al. (2020) introduces a new framework (the Recreational Ecosystem Services Interpretive Framework) that combines recreational ecosystem services and a benefits approach to leisure to better inform management of protected areas. Miller et al. (2020) investigates public perception of prescribed fires in New Jersey and Pennsylvania and finds that hunters had lower levels of perceived costs and likelihood of negative outcomes from prescribed fire than non-hunters. University of Connecticut: Research is being carried out in the context of three broad topics: (1) management of surface water and groundwater use in agriculture under climate change; (2) development and utilization of dams to manage climate induced changes in river flows; and (3) economic impact of climate change mitigation strategies on agricultural production, food choices, and human nutrition. In the reporting period, it resulted in two conference presentations, two journal articles under review, and completion of one M.S. thesis.  Presentations: Bruno, C. and F. Shah “Economic Analysis of Groundwater Depletion with Possible Import of Supplementary Supply: The Case of Western Kansas (Sheridan County)” Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association Meetings, 2020. Huang, J., C. Bruno, and F. Shah “Climate Change and the Role of Public Policy in Sustaining Agricultural Growth” Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meetings, 2020. Journal Articles Under Review: Niu, Y. and F. Shah “Economics of Optimal Reservoir Capacity Determination, Sediment Management, and Dam Decommissioning.” Tiboldo, G., R. Boehm, F. Shah and E. Castellari “Taxing the Heat Out of the U.S. Food System.” Thesis: Bruno, C. Economics of Inter-Regional Water Compacts with Consideration of Groundwater and Surface Water Interaction: A Case Study from the Republican River Basin. M.S., Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Connecticut, 2020. University of Florida: Published two peer-reviewed journal articles on fund raising for local environmental issues and agricultural producer’s willingness to accept best management practices. University of Illinois: Task 1-1, Outputs Gramig published an article linking local economic competition for corn grain with land-use change under the federal Renewable Fuels Standard with partners in another state (Purdue University in Indiana) and country (ETH Zurich). Ando published a paper in Environment and Resource Economics with former graduate student Aparna Howlader that shows the impact of forest conservation in Nepal on household wood gathering and consumption. Ando worked with a multi-disciplinary team of researchers at many different institutions to write a paper that was published in Science evaluating the costs and possible benefits of ecological approaches to avoiding another pandemic like COVID-19. Task 1-1, Activities Gramig worked with a doctoral student to conduct a survey of Illinois farmers requested by the Illinois state Department of Agriculture to assess the first year of the Fall Covers for Spring Savings Cover Crop Insurance discount Program. Gramig worked with doctoral student Hsin-Chieh Hsieh at UIUC, Prof. Michael Delgado at Purdue University and Prof. Shanxia Sun at Shanghai University to evaluate the impact of USDA conservation program expenditures by EQIP and CSP on ambient water quality in the Wabash (Indiana) and Illinois River basins. A working paper on the Wabash work is being finalized for submission, and different methods and empirical approaches are being explored for the Illinois work. Gramig began new work with graduate student Menglin Liu and Prof. Nick Paulson at UIUC to investigate the relationship between adoption of precision agriculture technologies/practices and conservation practices using USDA-ERS Ag Resource Management Survey data. Ando worked with graduate student Liqing Li to estimate the impact of bison restoration on local economic activity in the U.S. They have refined a manuscript on this research. Task 1-2, Activities Gramig worked with doctoral student to develop an analysis to quantify the impact of wildfires and smoke on National Park visitation in the Western US. Ando completed revising and resubmitting a manuscript to Land Economics that informs management of flood hazards. She uses a contingent valuation survey to evaluate homeowner willingness to pay for a novel pre-flood agreement such that the homeowner pre-commits to relocating if a flood damages their home by more than 50% of its value, in exchange for which they gain an expedited and streamlined buyout process with payment equal to the full market value of their home. The study finds that nearly all homeowners would gain value from being able to enter into such a contract. Task 1-3, Activities Gramig provided public service by working with Current in the city of Chicago to develop an online survey of residents of the greater Chicago area on perceptions of and interactions with the Chicago River as part of Current’s H2Now project that is installing real-time water quality sensors for fecal coliform at multiple locations along the river in the city of Chicago that can be monitored online. The project is part of a broader effort to increase Chicagoans’ engagement with the river.   Task 1-4, Activities Gramig published an article with Purdue co-authors on climate change impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in state of Indiana based on a multi-year, multi-institution interdisciplinary climate assessment completed for the state. University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Published a paper titled “The Importance of Well Yield in Groundwater Demand Specification” in Land Economics. The paper shows that well yield is a key determinant of groundwater use for irrigation and ignoring it can lead to misleading policy conclusions. Published a paper titled “Hydrologic-economic Trade-offs in Groundwater Allocation Policy Design” in Water Resources Research. The paper shows that groundwater allocation designs can have hydrologic and economic trade-off. Published a paper titled “Synthesizing evidence about the opportunities and challenges for satellite-based monitoring of groundwater irrigation abstractions” in Water Resources Research. The paper shows that the use of remote sensing to estimate irrigation and use the estimates to regulate water use may cause significant welfare loss due to significant measurement errors in the estimates. Published a paper titled “Effects of instantaneous groundwater availability on irrigated agriculture and implications for aquifer management” in Resource and Energy Economics. The paper theoretically and numerically shows the critical importance of considering well yield in designing groundwater policies. University of Tennessee: Analyzed how the optimal spatial budget distribution for protecting ecosystem services under two extreme market conditions result in different ecological-economic tradeoffs for balance between conservation and sustainable development. University of Rhode Island: A choice experiment was designed and will be administered online via Qualtrics a professional survey service. This survey aims to 1) determine Rhode Island consumers attitudes, preferences, and definition of local food 2) determine Rhode Island consumers awareness level of the local agricultural label and 3) determine if Rhode Island consumers are willing to pay more for local food marked with the local agricultural label. (Trandafir) (Uchida) Project title: Crowding Effect of Subsidies and Social Nudges on Intrinsic Motivation for Contribution to a Common Pool Resource: Results from a Framed Field Experiment in Tanzania.  Accomplishments: This study investigates the impact of social nudges and incentives in the form of labor subsidy on activities to enhance a common pool resource, and whether this extrinsic motivation crowds out intrinsic motivation. To examine these questions, we develop a new framed field experiment in which the labor subsidies are presented as a treatment in combination with other social nudges: social norm, recognition, and shaming. The results of the random effect regression suggest that people are more cooperative and increase labor contribution when there is a high level of labor subsidy as well as with social nudges. However, when the high level of subsidy is offered with information about social norms, it crowded out intrinsic motivation. On average, subjects contributed 21 percent less to planting activities, compared to the baseline or their original contribution without any intervention. It suggests that subsidies will not always lead to more contribution to common pool resources, especially in contexts in which volunteering in public work has become a social norm. Instead, social nudges could be a more effective and cheaper option compared to subsidies. Utah State University: Task 1-1: Congestion (overuse) is a major issue at many national parks. In Utah, we document the degree to which the state's "Mighty Five" (M5) promotional campaign contributed to congestion at Utah's national parks. We find that the M5 did not add to congestion at Bryce Canyon or Zion--where automobile restrictions were already in place--but it increased visits at Utah's other three NPs. In particular, our model documented the proportion of increased visitation that could be attributed to the M5. The study had clear policy implications: with numerous outdoor recreation alternatives available in Utah, encouraging a share of NP visitors to go to those sites ("demarketing" the NPs) would decrease NP congestion and spread the economic benefits of tourism more broadly through southern Utah. Obj. 1, Task 1-3: Though I did not anticipate participating in this task in the W-4133 proposal, I was involved in a study of recreation along Minnesota's North Shore. Our model estimated how trip numbers, timing, and duration would respond to changes in North Shore climate.   University of Wyoming: Task 1.1 Project: “Determining the Value of Conservation Easements in Colorado.”  Rashford, B (PI), Investigators: D. McLeod, D. Bennett, B. Shaw. Milestones: Completed data collection and initial model estimation to determine risk of agricultural land conversion to residential uses in three CO counties. Activities: 1) Finalizing logit model of development risk and beginning estimation of propensity score matching model to determine the conservation easement value of existing agricultural parcel in three CO counties Project: “Landowner Economics – Red Desert to Hoback Mule Deer Migration Corridor.”  Rashford, B (PI), Investigators: A. Nagler.  Sponsor: Wyoming Wildlife Federation.  Amount: $5,000. Milestones: Completed data collection and report writing to quantify the landowner and community benefits of investments in conservation activities to protect mule deer migration corridors in western WY. Activities: 1) Nagler, A., B. Rashford, and J. Bannon. 2021. RD2H Migration Corridor Landowner Benefits.  UW Extension Bulletin, In Review Project: “Investigating Potential Impacts of Non-Attainment Risk on Conservation Exchange Outcomes.” Hansen, K. (PI), Co-PIs: C. Jones-Ritten, C. Bastian, A. Nagler.  Amount Requested: $74,317.  Submitted 9/30/2015.  Duration of Project: January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2018. Milestones: Research completed regarding habitat conservation markets using experimental economics methods. Activities: 1) A second outreach publication for this project has been drafted based on the research reported in the above article and will be in review for possible publication in 2021. 2) Working Title “Credit Failure Risk in Market-Based Conservation Programs: What Is It and Can It Be Helped?” We have conducted an additional set of up experimental sessions investigating the potential for an insurance product to address landowner risk in the habitat exchange market.  Those experiments have been completed, analysis is completed, and a paper is being drafted. This paper has been slowed by COVID  Task 1.4 Project: “Integrating sustainable socio-economic, ecological and technological innovation for achieving global climate stabilization through negative CO2 emission policies” (Aug. 2016 – Jul. 2020).  PI: S. Ahmed (Montana State University); Rashford (UW-PI).  Sponsor: NSF EPSCoR.  Amount: $6,000,000 Milestones: Completed model estimation to determine probabilities of agricultural land-use conversion between grassland, cropland, rangeland and development in the Upper Missouri River Basin to determine land use response to climate change and climate change mitigation policies, such as incentives for cellulosic bioenergy production. Activities: 1) Estimated land-use conversion model using high-resolution satellite imagery data. 2) Completed farm-level budget models to understand the economics of producing switchgrass for climate change mitigation. Project: “Pelletizing prairie for energy and landscape sustainability” (Sept. 2021 – Aug. 2023).  PI: Meghann Jarchow, University of South Dakota; Rashford (UW-PI).  Sponsor: NIFA, North Central Regional Sun Grant.  Amount: $450,000. Milestones: Grant proposal developed; to be submitted March 30, 2021. Virginia Tech University: Bayesian Meta-Regression: During the 2019/2020 reporting period, I started work on a novel Bayesian Locally-Weighted Meta-Regression (BLWR-MRM) approach to value water quality improvements as a result of USDA conservation efforts on agricultural lands. This analytical framework produces more accurate benefit transfer estimates than typical one-model-fits-all MRM strategies. I applied the model to an existing (and growing) meta-data set on willingness-to-pay (WTP) for water quality improvements from a variety of source studies. Coastal flood risk: I continued work on Bayesian matching estimators for housing markets, with application to flood risk in New England. The main objective for this research is to determine the optimal number of matched control observations for each treated property. This past year I expanded my model diagnostics to also include distance statistics, balance statistics, and regression adjustment effects. Red tide air toxins: I implemented a choice experiment to elicit Southwestern Florida residents' WTP for an improved forecasting systems for respiratory irritation levels related to red tide algal blooms. The survey also collected important baseline information on residents' outdoor activities, and past experiences with red tide outbreaks.    Objective 2: Economic Valuation   Colorado State University: We are using revealed preference methods with novel data (NRI point data) to examine tradeoffs and value the costs of increasing the adoption of agricultural practices that build soil carbon. We are using revealed preference methods to value residential landscape conformity. Mississippi State University: Investigator Petrolia and co-authors analyzed the use of nonmarket valuation methods and estimates in environmental regulatory analysis at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We examine trends in the literature over the last forty-five years and compare those trends to how often nonmarket benefits are monetized and which methods are used in 49 recent EPA Regulatory Impact Analyses. We also review EPA awarded research grants and their focus. Investigator Petrolia and colleagues estimated the value of nonmarket ecosystem services provided by multiple oyster resource types.  Services included nutrient removal, shoreline protection / reduced erosion, and other fish habitat (blue crab and red drum). Petrolia and colleagues conducted a meta-analysis of estimates of the value of nonmarket ecosystem services provided by shellfish and seaweed aquaculture. North Carolina State University: Research by von Haefen (NC State), Lupi (Michigan State) and Phaneuf (Wisconsin) develop best practices for the implementation of recreational demand models for policy analysis.  Results were published in REEP, a leading journal in environmental economics that strives to reach economists and policy analysts working in diverse fields.  Oregon State University: Alix-Garcia and collaborators published a paper showing how survey data can be collected through indirect informants rather than individual households.  This is useful for reducing the costs of many different survey applications. Dundas and collaborator (w4133 member Roger von Haefen) published two papers that estimates non-market recreation impacts of climate change. In one, our estimates suggest that extreme heat significantly reduces recreation participation in shoreline fishing and we find evidence of climate-averting behavior as anglers shift their activities to nighttime rather than fish less frequently to mitigate the negative impacts from extreme heat. In the second, we compare how data structure (panel v. cross-section) and non-linearities in weather impact these nonmarket values and impacts from climate change. Lewis collaborated with a U.S.D.A. Forest Service economist on a forthcoming paper that estimates the effects of climate on the net economic returns to forestland in the conterminous United States. Results indicate that climate change is projected to increase the net returns to forestry in the middle latitudes of the eastern U.S., and that most of estimated gains come from incentives to adapt on the extensive margin. Pennsylvania State University: Several projects also focus on economic valuation. These projects include methodological advances in nonmarket valuation as well as applying improvements in data and valuation methods to policy-relevant settings. Another objective for this goal is to better understand the distribution of public goods and the consequences for nonmarket valuation. Projects under this goal include: 1) Arora, Brent, and Jaenicke (2020) show that there are distinct classes of Indian consumers in terms of how much they are willing to pay for lab-grown and plant-based meat. We categorize the four consumer classes as: veggie lovers, the meat lovers, the plant-based meat enthusiasts, and the clean meat enthusiasts. 2) Brent et al. (Working Paper) find differences in preferences when respondents' financial incentives are linked to their survey responses. The results are consistent with hypothetical bias of roughly 60%. 3) Brent, Cook, and Lassiter (Working Paper) show that eligibility and selection effects are important for evaluating the distributional consequences of green infrastructure policies. Wealthier households are eligible, but less wealthy households participate conditional on eligibility. 4) Choi, Ready, and Shortle (2020) present an algorithm for estimating the water quality benefits from implementing Best Management Practices (BMPs). A key feature of the algorithm is to capture benefits through a stream network downstream of the implementation and in- and off-stream benefits over the affected geography. It is applied to three watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay basin. University of Florida: Supported two PhD students. Published two peer-reviewed journal articles on valuation of fishery resources and endangered species. Presented related research at 2020 AAEA annual meeting and other invited seminars. University of Illinois: Task 2-1, Outputs Ando has collaborated with other researchers at UIUC and in Missouri on research to estimate the values of water quality improvements in the Corn Belt. She and EPA economist Bryan Parthum wrote a paper reporting on a choice experiment that finds that both urban and rural residents of the Upper Sangamon River watershed place large value on achieving nutrient reduction targets to stop Gulf hypoxia and reducing local algal blooms. This paper was published in Land Economics. Task 2-1, Activities Gramig worked with doctoral student Seojeong Oh and interdisciplinary collaborators at UIUC to develop a choice experiment survey to be conducted in 2020 to estimate household willingness to pay to improve water quality (reduce nutrient pollution) in Illinois, Indiana and Iowa. This work is funded by the NSF. Ando advised graduate student Liqing Li in research to understand how early life experience influences the values people have for nature when they are adults. They conducted a choice experiment survey eliciting people’s values for grassland restoration in Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa. Results show that willingness to pay for grasslands is higher for people who grew up near them. Additionally, people have higher value for specific recreational attributed such as trails and fishing ponds if they learned how to do those activities as children. This paper has been presented and is close to being ready for journal submission. Ando wrote a paper with W4133 participant Dale Manning at Colorado State to estimate the benefits of pest control services by bats. This research uses the spread of white-nose syndrome to quantify the impact of bat population reductions on acres of crops planted and the net surplus gained by producers on the acres they do plant. It is under review at the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. Ando worked with graduate student Frederick Nyanzu, EPA economist Bryan Parthum, and W4133 partner Corey Lang at the University of Rhode Island on research funded by the USDA-NIFA to estimate the values people place on peri-urban conservation of natural and farmland areas and expansion of local food supply. That survey has been drafted and is almost ready to field. Ando worked with W4133 partners in Oregon on choice-experiment research to estimate the values people place on different features of green roof installations in urban areas. That survey has been fielded and the data are ready to analyze. Gramig developed a survey instrument and choice experiment with doctoral student to measure public willingness-to-pay for nutrient pollution reduction that includes assessment of “local” versus downstream (Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone) water quality attributes. This survey is being launched in April 2021. University of Rhode Island: Significant advances were made in two non-market valuation studies regarding utility-scale solar siting in New England. This is a contentious issue due to the significant land use requirements needed for solar and the common practice of siting these facilities on farm and forest lands. First, we developed a hedonic property model to estimate disamenities stemming from proximity to utility-scale solar. We find statistically significant negative impacts of about 1.6% on average for properties within 0.6 miles of an installation. Further, we find that impacts are greater for properties within 0.1 miles and properties surrounding farm and forest sites (as opposed to industrial sites). Second, we developed a choice experiment survey and conducted a web-push survey to 3000 Rhode Island residents. The results complement the hedonic results by providing valuation of individual attributes of the siting process. Results indicate that land use is the most important attribute and residents are willing to pay enough money in increased electricity bills to warrant offering large incentives for developers to target industrial and brownfield sites instead of farm and forest sites. Presentations: Lang, Corey. “Property Value Impacts of Commercial-Scale Solar Energy in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.” URI Cooperative Extension Learn at Home webinar, September 29, 2020 Received Grant: Lang, Corey and Pearson-Merkowitz, Shanna “Leveraging Status Quo Bias to Preserve Farm, Forest, and Open Space Lands” USDA NIFA, 3/2021-3/2024, $500,000. This grant will citizen preferences and legislator preferences and actions related to land conservation. Trandafir participated in a large scale solar farms project are commonly met with public opposition due to a perceived inequity in the distributions of benefits and costs for these projects. A choice experiment was designed to understand if community benefits agreements are perceived as a way to achieve distributive justice. Data were collected (357 responses) and we are currently analyzing it. Virginia Tech University: Free-form choice experiments: I developed the econometric framework to analyze the data to be expected from the large-scale watershed improvement survey in New England. The highlight of the statistical model is that it allows for variable uncertainty and model-averaging. This is important given the large number of candidate explanatory variables that could explain a household's response to the binary (yes/no) willingness-to-pay question collected in the survey. Over this past project year I applied the model to actual survey data, using a variety of spatially diverse quality indicators. Objective 3: Integrated Policy and Decision-Making Colorado State University: We are seeking funding to build economic analysis into the COMET-Farm tool (<a href="https://comet-farm.com/">https://comet-farm.com/</a>), developed at CSU. Mississippi State University: Investigators Interis and Yun aggregated and tabulated meta-data from the literature to be used in a meta-regression-based benefits transfer to estimate the value of two ecosystem services across the Mississippi River basin: bird populations and surface water quality. They have worked with one MS student and two undergraduate researchers in collecting the data and developing preliminary models for regression analysis. They have presented or will be presenting this work at several meetings (NAREA 2020, W4133 2021, SAEA 2021, AAEA 2021 and at the Undergraduate Research Symposium Spring, 2021 at Mississippi State University). Investigators Yun and Interis have used various sources to collect land cover and surface water quality data in order to examine the effect of land cover on surface water quality and the effect of how crop diversity is specified on model prediction. Investigator Petrolia designed a decision tool for oyster resource managers to estimate market and non-market ecosystem benefits associated with multiple oyster resource types. North Carolina State University: Research by von Haefen, Eggleston and Cui (NC State) and Sutherland (Duke) examines the economic losses from declines in submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the Albemarle-Pamlico estuary.  Results will help federal, state, and local policy makers as the grapple with proposed changes to gear restrictions that could impact SAV acreage. Northern Arizona University: Julie Mueller of Northern Arizona University is the Lead Project Director for a United States Department of Agriculture, National Institute of Food and Agriculture: Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Foundational Grant, Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, “Valuing Springs Ecosystem Services to Inform Sustainable Forested Rangeland Management,” $499,926, awarded September 2020-September 2023. The proposed work incorporates non-market valuation into management solutions in the Coconino and Kaibab National Forests in the Western US. Oregon State University: Dundas collaborated with 12 other faculty across West Coast institutions on a paper noting the advantages of taking a portfolio approach to climate policy that include both terrestrial and marine solutions in the areas of renewable energy, habitat restoration, carbon storage, and food systems. Lewis collaborated with two other Oregon State faculty on a forthcoming paper that estimates how the federal Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) – a large-scale conservation policy – has affected the economy of nearby communities. Results indicate that the NWFP induced skill sorting, where high skilled workers sorted into communities nearby protected NWFP lands. Kling published the first bioeconomic framework for quantifying the value of timber resource measurement. Although measuring resource abundance is a routine activity, for the most part investment in information has been left out of standard economic models. This work provides a platform for efficiently planning both harvest and measurement of a forest resource. Potential future applications of the model include extension resources for small-scale private forest owners that outline when to measure their forest stand and how to use that information to adjust harvest planning. Pennsylvania State University: Brent and Beland (2020) show that peak traffic increases the response times of first responders by about 20%. Peak traffic also increases the monetary damages from fires by 10%. Shortle et al. (2020) synthesizes research from multiple disciplines to develop a system approach to nutrient pollution management. Royer et al. (2020) shares lessons learned and best practices from initiative to engage scientists, policy makers, and stakeholders in a shared discovery approach to developing solutions to nutrient pollution problems. Colby and Zipp (2020) estimate that there are 8.1% more houses and flood damages that are 13% too high in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania due to flood insurance subsidies. University of Illinois: Task 3-2, Activities Gramig worked with doctoral student to develop analysis of water quality trading system designs that integrate sediment and phosphorous markets to address the problems of sedimentation in Lake Decatur, P pollution from agri-processing industries and non-point source pollution from farms. This work was presented in a seminar setting that included practitioners working in the watershed. Gramig mentored post-doctoral associate Bowen Chen at UIUC and worked with W-4133 member Prof. Seong Do Yun at Mississippi State University on a project for USDA-NRCS to quantify the on-farm benefits of agricultural conservation practices that are subsidized by federal agri-environmental programs (i.e. EQIP). This work also involves USDA-ERS through the use of data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) administered by NASS for ERS. This work will quantify how NRCS conservation practices economically impact farms that adopt them, and will be used to provide economically relevant information about these practices to NRCS customers evaluating alternative conservation strategies. This work is funded by NRCS. Ando and W4133 partner Sahan Dissanayake in Oregon worked with graduate student Kaylee Wells on a cooperative agreement with the USDA to do a choice experiment survey of the values of different kinds of grassland restoration that is carefully tailored to inform legislative and agency decisions about the size and administration of the Conservation Reserve Program. The first survey has been designed and is almost ready to field. Ando worked with researchers at UIUC, CUNY, and Argonne National Lab on their $NSF-INFEWS funded project to integrate ecosystem service valuation and physical/climatological modeling to study “Climate-induced extremes on the food, energy, water nexus (C-FEWS) and the role of engineered and natural infrastructure.” She has worked with graduate student Joseph Chang on an economic valuation model that takes inputs from coupled biophysical models to estimate the values of changes in things like carbon sequestration, crop yields, water pollution, and the cost of electricity production as a result of climate shocks. University of Rhode Island: (Uchida) Project title: Integrating public preferences with biophysical production possibilities: an application to ecosystem services from dam removal. Accomplishments: Increasing the provision of one ecosystem service often comes only at the expense of others. Effective management requires understanding the biophysical relationships governing these tradeoffs, as well as stakeholder preferences for the tradeoffs. In this paper we apply microeconomic principles of production and consumption to empirically identify efficient and socially desirable ecosystem service outcomes. We use a production possibilities model to quantify the tradeoffs among four ecosystem services from dam removal in Maine: hydropower, lake shoreline, herring, and Atlantic salmon. Then we conduct a choice experiment survey to understand public preferences for the services, using latent class analysis to group respondents with common preferences. Finally, we estimate indifference curves and combine them with the production possibilities model to identify preferred ecosystem service outcomes by group. Results indicate that stakeholders with apparently diverging values can sometimes agree on preferred outcomes when we account for the productive capacity of the ecosystem. Additionally, we find that the common practice of reducing multidimensional ecosystem service tradeoff analyses to two dimensions generates inconsistent results and lost welfare. Generally, our empirical application demonstrates the practical usability of this framework for incorporating diverse stakeholder preferences into ecosystem management planning, and identifying restoration projects likely to garner broad support. University of Wyoming: Recent Activity: A paper was written to address the unique economic challenges generated by conservation policy for migratory species. It is currently under review. Conte, Marc, Kristiana Hansen, Kyle Horton, Chian Jones Ritten, Leah H. Palm-Forster, Jason F. Shogren, Frank Wätzold, and Teal Wyckoff. “A Framework to Evaluate Mechanisms to Support Seasonal Migratory Species.” Review of Environmental and Economics Policy. Submitted November 2020. Project: Land Conservation decisions and preferences for placing conservation easements on agricultural lands. Milestones: Research completed.  Recent Activity: A paper was written to address a literature synthesis and broadening economic concepts used to determine “Sense of Place” as a potential motivation for landowners to place easements on agricultural lands. It is currently in press and has not been given an issue and volume but is available online. An additional paper investigates the whether conservation ethic or intergenerational bequest are motivators in the decision for landowners to choose placing an easement on their land. This paper was accepted for publication in late 2020 and became available online in early view in February 2021. Forthcoming: 1) Bastian, C. T., C. M. Keske, D. L. Hoag, and D. M. McLeod. ‘Comment on Eaton et al.’s Reconceptualization of Economic Dependence in “Trouble with Sense of Place in Working Landscapes”, Society and Natural Resources (Currently in Press). Paper has been published in early view and available online but has not yet been assigned a volume and issue. See: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2020.1823542">https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2020.1823542</a>.  2) Keske, C., A. Parker, J. E. Cross, and C. T. Bastian. “Does Conservation Ethic Include Intergenerational Bequest? A Random Utility Model Analysis of Conservation Easements and Agricultural Landowners,” Rural Sociology. (Currently in Press). Paper has been published in early view and available online but has not yet been assigned a volume and issue. See: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12370">https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12370</a> Virginia Tech University: Free-form choice experiments: I developed the econometric framework to analyze the data to be expected from the large-scale watershed improvement survey in New England. The highlight of the statistical model is that it allows for variable uncertainty and model-averaging. This is important given the large number of candidate explanatory variables that could explain a household's response to the binary (yes/no) willingness-to-pay question collected in the survey. Over this past project year I applied the model to actual survey data, using a variety of spatially diverse quality indicators.

Publications

Publications (85 total) Objective 1: Resource Management (43) Ansah, E., M. Kaplowitz, F. Lupi and J. Kerr, 2020. Smallholder participation and compliance with sustainable cocoa certification, Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems. 44(1), 54-87. Bayham, J., & Yoder, J. K. (2020). Resource allocation under fire. Land Economics, 96(1), 92-110.         Bayham, Jude, and Eli P Fenichel. 2020. “Impact of School Closures for COVID-19 on the US Health-Care Workforce and Net Mortality: A Modelling Study.” The Lancet Public Health, April. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30082-7">https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30082-7</a>.        Bayham, Jude and Alexandra Hill.  2020. Ensuring the Continued Functionality of Essential Critical Infrastructure Industries by Estimating the Workforce Impacts of COVID-19. Colorado State University, Agricultural and Resource Economics. Beasley, W. J. and S. J. Dundas. 2021. Hold the Line:  Modeling Private Coastal Adaptation through Shoreline Armoring Decisions.  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 105: 102397. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102397">10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102397</a> Bocci, C., B. Sohngen, F. Lupi and B. Milian, 2020. Timber or Carbon? Evaluating forest conservation strategies through a discrete choice experiment, Ecological Economics. 171, 106601.             Bowling LC, K Cherkauer, C Lee, J Beckerman, S Brouder, J Buzan, O Doering, J Dukes, P Ebner, J Frankenberger, BM Gramig, E Kladivko, J Volenec. "Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change in Indiana and Potential Adaptations." Climatic Change 163(4): 2005-2027, 2020. Brent, Daniel A., Corey Lott, Michael Taylor, Joseph Cook, Kimberly Rollins, Shawn Stoddard, D. A. Brent, C. Lott, M. Taylor, and J. Cook. "What causes heterogeneous responses to social comparison messages for water conservation?" Environmental and Resource Economics, forthcoming.       Brown, Jason, Peter Maniloff, and Dale Manning (2020). Spatially variable taxation and resource extraction: The impact of state oil taxes on drilling in the US. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. Chahal, A., Ciolkosz, D., Puri, V., Liu, J. & Jacobson, M. (2020) Factors affecting wood-bark adhesion for debarking of shrub willow. Biosystems Engineering, 196: 202-209. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2020.05.019">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2020.05.019</a> Cho, S. Y. Lee, B.P. Sharma, and D.J. Hayes. 2021. “Do ecological-economic tradeoffs triggered by budget allocations for forest carbon sequestration change under different market conditions?” Sustainability Science, 16: 69-84.       Dobson, A.P., S. Pimm, L. Hannah, L. Kaufman, J.A. Ahumada, A.W. Ando, A Bernstein, J. Busch, P. Daszak, J. Engelmann, M. Kinnaird, B. Li, T. Loch-Temzelides, T. Lovejoy, K. Nowak, P. Roehrdanz, M.M. Vale. 2020. “Ecology and economics for pandemic prevention.” Science 369(6502): 397-381. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc3189">https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc3189</a>.             Drugova, Tatiana, Man-Keun Kim, and Paul M. Jakus. 2020. “Marketing, Congestion, and Demarketing in Utah’s National Parks.” Tourism Economics. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1354816620939722">https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620939722</a> Dundas, S. J. and D. J. Lewis. 2020. Estimating Option Values and Spillover Damages for Coastal Protection: Evidence from Oregon’s Planning Goal 18.  Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 7(3): 519-554. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/708092">10.1086/708092</a> Foster, T., Mieno, T., & Brozović, N. “Synthesizing evidence about the opportunities and chal- lenges for satellite-based monitoring of groundwater irrigation abstractions” Water Resources Research, 56(11) Frimpong, E., D.R. Petrolia, A. Harri, and J.H. Cartwright.  2020. “Flood Insurance and Claims:  The Impact of the Community Rating System.”  Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy 42(2): 245-62.             Hestetune, Adam, Paul M. Jakus, Chris Monz, and Jordan W. Smith. 2020. “Climate Change and Angling Behavior on the North Shore of Lake Superior (USA)” Fisheries Research, 231(105717). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105717">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105717</a>             Howlader A. and A. Ando. 2020. “Consequences of Protected Areas for Household Forest Extraction, Time Use, and Consumption: Evidence from Nepal.” Environmental and Resource Economics 75:769–808. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00407-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00407-2</a>       Hrozencik, Aaron, Dale T. Manning, Jordan F. Suter, Christopher Goemans (conditionally accepted). Impacts of Block-Rate Energy Pricing on Groundwater Demand in Irrigated Agriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Jacobson, M., Ciolkosz, D. 2020. Plantation Forestry and Pellet Production in Kenya. Biomass and Bioenergy. Vol 135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2020.105519 Jones, J. A., and X. Bi. 2020. "Environmental Giving to Complex Regional Issues: Public Perceptions of Funding for an Initiative in Florida." International Journal of Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Marketing e1699. Laird, H., C. Landry, S. Shonkwiler, and D.R. Petrolia.  "Riders on the Storm: Hurricane Risk and Coastal Insurance and Mitigation Decisions."  Forthcoming, Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics.       Manning, Dale T., Mani Rouhi Rad, Jordan Suter, Chris Goemans, Zaichen Xiang, and Ryan Baily (2020).  Non-Market Valuation in Integrated Assessment Modeling: The Benefits of Water Right Retirement. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. Mieno, T., Rouhi Rad, M., Suter, J., & Hrozensick, A. “The Importance of Well Yield in Groundwater Demand Specification” Land Economics, forthcoming Miller, Z. D., H. Wu, K. Zipp, C. L. Dems, E. Smithwick, M. Kaye, P. Newman, A. Zhao, and A. Taylor. (2020) "Hunter and Non-Hunter Perceptions of Costs, Benefits, and Likelihood of Outcomes of Prescribed Fire in the Mid-Atlantic Region." Society & Natural Resources <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2020.1780359">https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2020.1780359</a>. Minegishi, K. & Mieno, T. 2020 “Gold in Them Tha-R Hills: A Review of R Packages for Exploratory Data Analysis” Applied Economics Teaching Resources, 2(3):303913 Moffette, Fanny, Jennifer Alix-Garcia, Katherine Shea, and Amy Hudson Pickens. “The Impact of Near Real-Time Deforestation Alerts Across the Tropics.” Nature Climate Change (2021) <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00956-w">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00956-w</a>. Parton, L C. and S. J. Dundas. 2020. Fall in the Sea, Eventually? A Green Paradox in Climate Adaptation for Coastal Housing Markets. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 104: 102381. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102381">10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102381</a> Rice, W. L., Taff, B. D., Miller, Z. D., Newman, P., Zipp, K. Y., Pan, B., Newton, J. N., & D’Antonio, A. (2020) "Connecting motivations to outcomes: A study of park visitors’ outcome attainment." Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism 29: xxxx <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2019.100272">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2019.100272</a> Rice, W.L, P.B. Newman, B.D. Taff, Z.D. Miller, and K.Y. Zipp. (2020) "Beyond benefits: Toward a recreational ecosystem services management framework." Landscape Research 1-13. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01426397.2020.1777956">https://doi.org/10.1080/01426397.2020.1777956</a> Rimsaite, R., K. Fisher-Vanden, S. Olmstead, D. Grogan, 2020, “How well do U.S. western water markets convey economic information?" Forthcoming, Land Economics. Rimsaite, R., K.A. Fisher-Vanden, S. Olmstead, 2020, “Learning from Historical Water Transfer in the United States: Are Gains from Trade Higher or Lower Under Water Stress?” Submitted, Environmental and Resource Economics       Rouhi Rad, Mani, Dale T. Manning, Jordan F. Suter, Christopher Goemans (forthcoming).  Policy Leakage or Policy Benefit? Spatial Spillovers from Conservation Policies in Common Property Resources.  Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. Rouhi-Rad, M., Foster, T., Brozović, N., & Mieno, T. 2020 “Effects of instantaneous groundwater availability on irrigated agriculture and implications for aquifer management” Resource and Energy Economics, 59, 101129 Srivastava, L., et al., 2020. How will climate change affect provision and value of water from public lands in Southern California through the 21st century? Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. 19, 117-149. Suter, Jordan, Mani Rouhi Rad, Dale Manning, Chris Goemans, and Matthew Sanderson (forthcoming). Groundwater Depletion, Climate, and the Incremental Value of Groundwater.  Resource and Energy Economics.         Thompson, Matthew P., Jude Bayham, and Erin Belval. 2020. “Potential COVID-19 Outbreak in Fire Camp: Modeling Scenarios and Interventions.” Fire 3 (3): 38. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3030038">https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3030038</a>. von Haefen, Roger H. “New Study Explores Climate Change Impacts on North Carolina Coastal Angling,” NC State Economist, Winter 2020.             Wang Y, MS Delgado, JP Sesmero, BM Gramig. "Market Structure and the Effect of Ethanol Expansion on Land Allocation: A Spatially Explicit Analysis." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102(5): 1598-1622, 2020.       Yang, H., F. Lupi, J. Zhang and J. Liu, 2020. Hidden cost of conservation: A demonstration using losses from human-wildlife conflicts under a payment for ecosystem services program. Ecological Economics. 169, 106462. Yehouenou, L., K. Grogan, X. Bi, and T. Borisova. 2020. "Improving BMP Cost-Share Enrollment Rates: Insights from a Survey of Florida Farmers". Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 1-33. Young, R., Foster, T., Mieno, T., Valocchi, A., & Brozović, N. “Hydrologic-economic Trade-offs in Groundwater Allocation Policy Design” Water Resources Research, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027941">https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027941</a>  Zaveri, E., D.H. Wrenn, and K.A. Fisher-Vanden, 2020, “The Impact of Water Access on Short-Term Migration in Rural India.” Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 64(2):505-532. doi: 10.1111/1467-8489.12364   Objective 2: Economic Valuation (16) Alix-Garcia, Jennifer, Katharine R.E. Sims, and Laura Costica. “Better to be direct? Testing the accuracy and cost-savings of community leader surveys for poverty targeting,” World Development (2021). Burkhardt, J., Chan, N., Bollinger, B., Gillingham, K. (2021). Conformity and Conservation: Evidence from home landscaping and water conservation. Accepted: American Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. Dundas, S. J., and R. H. von Haefen. 2021. The Importance of Data Structure and Non- linearities in Estimating Climate Impacts on Outdoor Recreation. Natural Hazards. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04484-w">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04484-w</a> Dundas, S. J. and R. H. von Haefen. 2020. The Effects of Weather on Recreational Fishing Demand and Adaptation:  Implications for a Changing Climate.  Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 7(2): 209-242. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/706343">10.1086/706343</a> Goeb, J., A. Dillon, F. Lupi and D. Tschirley. 2020. Pesticides: What you don’t know can hurt you. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. 7(5), 801-836. Gong, Y., X. Bi, and Wu, J. 2020. "Willingness to Pay for the Conservation of the Endangered Red-Crowned Crane in China: Roles of Conservation Attitudes and Income." Forest Policy and Economics (120) 102296. Howard, G., B. Roe, M. Interis, and J. Martin. 2020. “Addressing Attribute Value Substitution in Discrete Choice Experiments to Avoid Unintended Consequences.” Environmental and Resource Economics, 77(4): 813-838. Hwang, J. , X. Bi, N. Morales, and E. Camp. 2020. "The Economic Value of Freshwater Fisheries in Florida: An Application of the Travel Cost Method for Black Crappie Fishing Trips." Fisheries Research (223) 105752. Lupi, F., D. Phanuef and R. von Haefen. 2020. Best practice in recreation demand analysis, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 14(2): 282-301. Mihiar, C., and D.J. Lewis. 2021. "Climate, adaptation, and the value of forestland: A national Ricardian analysis of the United States." Land Economics (Forthcoming).       Parthum, B. and A.W. Ando. 2020. “Overlooked benefits of nutrient reductions in the Mississippi River Basin.” Land Economics. Penn J and W Hu. 2021. The Extent of Hypothetical Bias in Willingness to Accept. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 103(1):126-141. Penn J and W Hu. 2020. Mitigating hypothetical bias by defaulting to opt-out in an online choice experiment. Applied Economics. 53(3):315-328. Petrolia, D.R., D. Guignet, J.C. Whitehead, C. Kent, K. Amon, and C. Caulder.  "Nonmarket Valuation in the Environmental Protection Agency's Regulatory Process."  Forthcoming, Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13106">https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13106</a>. Petrolia, D.R. and J. Hwang.  2020.  "Accounting for Attribute Non-Attendance in Three Previously Published Choice Studies of Coastal Resources."  Marine Resource Economics 35(3, July): 219-40. Reeling, C., V. Verdier and F. Lupi. 2020. Valuing Goods Allocated via Dynamic Lottery. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. 7(4), 721-749.   Objective 3: Integrated Policy and Decision-Making (26)   Amin, M.M., Veith, T.L., Shortle, J.S., Karsten, H.D. and Kleinman, P.J., 2020. Addressing the spatial disconnect between national‐scale total maximum daily loads and localized land management decisions. Journal of Environmental Quality, 49(3), pp.613-627. Bauchet, Jonathan, Nigel Asquith, Zhao Ma, Claudia Radel, Ricardo Godoy, Laura Zanotti, Diana Steele, Benjamin M. Gramig, and Andrea Estrella Chong. "The practice of Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) in the Tropical Andes: Evidence from program administrators." Ecosystem Services 45 (2020): 101175. Bayham, J., Belval, E. J., Thompson, M. P., Dunn, C., Stonesifer, C. S., & Calkin, D. E. (2020). Weather, risk, and resource orders on large wildland fires in the western us. Forests, 11(2), 169. Berman, J. D., Bayham, J., & Burkhardt, J. (2020). Hot under the collar: A 14-year association between temperature and violent behavior across 436 US counties. Environmental Research, 191, 110181. Brent, Daniel, and Louis-Philippe Beland. "Traffic congestion, transportation policies, and the performance of first responders." Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2020): 102339 Burkhardt, J., Bayham, J., Wilson, A., Berman, J. D., O'Dell, K., Ford, B., ... & Pierce, J. R. (2020). The relationship between monthly air pollution and violent crime across the United States. Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 9(2), 188-205. Chen, Y., Lewis, D.J., and B. Weber. 2021. “Amenities and skill sorting: A case study of land conservation policy.” The Annals of Regional Science (Forthcoming). Colby, S. and K.Y. Zipp. (2020) "Excess Vulnerability from Subsidized Flood Insurance: Housing Market Adaptation When Premiums Equal Expected Flood Damage" Climate Change Economics <a href="https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007820500128">https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007820500128</a>. Cook, A. and Shortle, J., 2021. Pollution Trading with Transport Time Lags.  R&R for publication in Environment and Resource Economics. Dundas, S. J., A. S. Levine, R .L. Lewison, A. N. Doerr , C. White , A. W. E. Galloway, C. Garza, E. L. Hazen, J. Padilla-Gamino, J. F. Samhouri, A. Spalding, A. Stier and J. W. White. 2020. Integrating Oceans into Climate Policy: Any Green New Deal Needs a Splash of Blue.  Conservation Letters 13(5): e12716. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12716">10.1111/conl.12716</a> Fisher-Vanden, K., J. Weyant, 2020, “The Evolution of Integrated Assessment: developing the next generation of use-inspired IA tools.” Annual Review of Resource Economics, 12:20.1-20.17, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-110119-030314">https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-110119-030314</a> Griffin, Robert, Adrian Vogl, Stacie Wolny, Stefanie Covino, Eivy Monroy, Heidi Ricci, Richard Sharp, Courtney Schmidt, Emi Uchida. (2020) When to include additional pollutants into an integrated assessment model for estimating non-market benefits from water quality? Land Economics 96(4): 457-477 Hashida, Y., Withey, J., Lewis, D.J., Newman, T., and J. Kline. 2020. “Anticipating changes in wildlife habitat induced by private forest owners’ adaptation to climate change and carbon policy.” PLOS ONE, 15(4): e0230525. Horan, R., and Shortle, J., 2021. The Song Remains Not the Same: Correlated Intercept and Slope Uncertainties Matter to Prices vs Quantities. Forthcoming (July). Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Li, S. X Cai, SA Emaminejad, A Juneja, S Niroula, SJ Oh, K Wallington, RD Cusick, BM Gramig, S John, G McIsaac, V Singh. “Developing an Integrated Technology-Environment-Economics Model to Simulate Food-Energy-Water Systems in Corn Belt Watersheds.” Manuscript under review. Lupi, F., B. Basso, C. Garnache, J. Herriges, D. Hyndman, and R. Stevenson. 2020 Linking agricultural nutrient pollution to the value of freshwater ecosystem services, Land Economics. 96(4): 493–509. Petrolia, D.R., F. Nyanzu, J. Cebrian, A. Harri, J. Amato, and W.C. Walton.  2020.  "Eliciting Expert Judgment to Inform Management of Diverse Oyster Resources for Multiple Ecosystem Services."  Journal of Environmental Management 268 (August):  110676. Preisendanz, H.E., Veith, T.L., Zhang, Q. and Shortle, J., 2020. Temporal inequality of nutrient and sediment transport: a decision-making framework for temporal targeting of load reduction goals. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1), p.014005. Reeling, C., Horan, R., Shortle, J., 2021. Permit markets benefit from cost-based trade ratios when emission targets are exogenous. R&R for publication in Environment and Resource Economics. Royer, M.B., Brooks, R.P., Shortle, J.S. and Yetter, S., 2020. Shared discovery: A process to coproduce knowledge among scientists, policy makers, and stakeholders for solving nutrient pollution problems. Journal of Environmental Quality. 49(3), pp. 603-612. Sanchirico, James N., Julie C. Blackwood, Ben Fitzpatrick, David M. Kling, Suzanne Lenhart, Michael G. Neubert, Katriona Shea, Charles B. Sims, and Michael R. Springborn. 2020. "Political economy of renewable resource federalism." Ecological Applications: e2276. Shortle, J.S., Mihelcic, J.R., Zhang, Q. and Arabi, M., 2020. Nutrient control in water bodies: A systems approach. Journal of Environmental Quality, 49(3), pp.517-533. Shortle, J., Ollikainen, M., Iho, A., 2021. Water Quality and Agriculture: Economics and Policy for Nonpoint Source Water Pollution. Palgrave. Forthcoming Sloggy, M. R., Kling, D. M., Plantinga, A. J. (2020). Measure twice, cut once: Optimal inventory and harvest under volume uncertainty and stochastic price dynamics. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 103: 102357. Stephenson, K., Easton, Z., Shabman, L., Shortle, J., 2020. Ag payments to control nutrients should be based on results. Bay Journal.  <a href="https://www.bayjournal.com/opinion/forum/ag-payments-to-control-nutrients-should-be-based-on-results/article_28e9075a-3556-11eb-97e5-539334c28802.html">https://www.bayjournal.com/opinion/forum/ag-payments-to-control-nutrients-should-be-based-on-results/article_28e9075a-3556-11eb-97e5-539334c28802.html</a> Sutherland, Sara, von Haefen, Roger H. Eggleston, David, and Jie Cao. “Economic Valuation of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation within the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary,” Final Report submitted to the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality and the Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Partnership, Raleigh, NC, February, 2021, 61 pages.   2021 Meeting Abstracts   SESSION 1: HABs, Tsunamis, & Invasive Species   Title:               Harmful algal blooms and toxic air: The economic value of improved forecasts Authors:         Klaus Moeltner, Tracy Fanara, Hosein Foroutan, Regina Hanlon, Vince Lovko,                             Shane Ross, David Schmale III W4133 obj.:   1, 2 Presenter:      Klaus Moeltner Email:             <a href="mailto:moeltner@vt.edu">moeltner@vt.edu</a>   Abstract:        The adverse economic impacts of harmful algal blooms can be mitigated via                                  tailored forecasting methods. Adequate provision of these services requires                                    knowledge of the losses avoided, or, in other words, the economic benefits they                             generate. The latter can be difficult to measure for broader population segments,                          especially if forecasting services or features do not yet exist. We illustrate how                              Stated Preference tools and Choice Experiments, commonly used for the                                        economic valuation of health and ecosystem services, are well-suited for this case.                        Using as example forecasts of respiratory irritation levels associated with airborne                        toxins caused by Florida red tide, we show that short-term predictions of spatially                         and temporally refined air quality conditions are valued highly by the underlying                                 population. This reflects the numerous channels and magnitude of red tide                                            impacts on locals' life and activities, which are also highlighted by our study. Our                               value estimates constitute an important input to determine the societal net benefits                   of implementing an improved forecasting system along the lines suggested in our                                 experiment. Our approach is broadly applicable to any type of air quality                                                 impediment with risk of human exposure.   Title:               Estimating economic damages of HAB and bacterial warnings in the Great Lakes Authors:         Greg Boudreaux, Frank Lupi, Brent Sohngen W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-2), 2 (Task 2-1), 3 (Tasks 3-2, 3-3) Presenter:      Greg Boudreaux Email:             <a href="mailto:Gregory.l.boudreaux@usace.army.mil">Gregory.l.boudreaux@usace.army.mil</a>   Abstract:        This paper estimates economic damages caused by harmful algal blooms (HABs) and bacteria warnings at all public sandy beaches spanning 300 miles of shoreline along Lake Erie and Lake St Clair using a combination of revealed preference data from site intercepts and stated preference data from online surveys. Following an on-site sampling schedule that randomized times and locations, interview teams went to all 28 sandy beaches from the Ohio-Pennsylvania border to Northern Lake St Clair. At each site, teams counted visitors and interviewed a random subset of them. The short intercept interviews provided data such as demographic information and travel distances for economic demand models for over 4,200 visitors. In a follow up survey, we collected stated preference data that indicates people’s reactions to the threat of HAB and bacterial warnings.  Combining the sampling design weights and site counts allows us to estimate the number of visits a site receives from each origin zip code. With the visitation data, we estimate a multi-site demand model for beaches. This model provides estimates of visitation to each site under unchanged conditions, which are then calibrated via contraction mapping to estimates of the percentage of visitors who would have still visited their intercept site under alternate HAB and bacteria scenarios. Our estimation procedure combines the survey data with visitor’s actual trip data to allow us to value both site closures and the impacts of HAB and bacterial threats. Results contribute to beach management when facing impacts on beaches, both through the values for preventing site closures by providing insight into potential impacts of HAB and bacterial threats.   Title:               Tsunami risk and information shocks: Evidence from the Oregon housing market Author:          Amila Hadziomerspahic W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-2) Presenter:      Amila Hadziomerspahic Email:             <a href="mailto:amila.hadziomerspahic@oregonstate.edu">amila.hadziomerspahic@oregonstate.edu</a>   Abstract:        Estimating risk perceptions related to natural disasters is critical to understanding behavioral responses of individuals and adaptive capacity of communities. Developed coastlines experience hazard risk from sources with different frequency and intensity, such as flooding, storm surges, and sea-level rise. In the Pacific Northwest, there is an additional high severity but very low frequency risk: the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake and tsunami. This paper investigates the impact of tsunami risk information on coastal residents’ risk perceptions, as capitalized into coastal property prices, using difference-in-differences and triple differences hedonic frameworks. I study the coastal Oregon housing market response to three sets of risk signals: two exogenous events - the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami and the July 20, 2015 New Yorker article “The Really Big One”; a hazard planning change – the 2013 release of new official tsunami evacuation maps; and visual cues of tsunami risk – blue lines indicating the spatial extent of the hazard zone installed by Oregon’s Tsunami Blue Line project. For the first analysis, I find preliminary evidence that the Tohoku earthquake was capitalized into house prices. Results suggest that a property inside the primary tsunami inundation zone sells for 6-8% less than a property outside of the zone after the Tohoku event. Thus, exogenous tsunami risk signals may shift homebuyers’ subjective risk perceptions to better match the objective risks of the Cascadia event. This suggests a salient risk signal may be able to successfully communicate the risk of a Cascadia event and induce individuals to take preparedness actions. Given Oregon’s current and chronic under-preparedness for a Cascadia event, additional policies are needed to mitigate hazard risk. This motivates my second and third analyses of state policies designed to convey risk signals. Here I will describe my identification strategies as the analyses are still in process.   Title:               A Sentiment Analysis Approach to Identifying Biased Responses to a Single-Shot                           Contingent Valuation Question Author:          Brian Vander Naald, Sonja Kolstoe W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2-1) Presenter:      Brian Vander Naald Email:             <a href="mailto:brian.vandernaald@drake.edu">brian.vandernaald@drake.edu</a>   Abstract:        The protection of at-risk species (listed and non-listed), prevention and mitigation of invasive species and climate change, are all topics that have the potential to trigger strong responses from respondents in stated choice surveys. Some strong responses may actually be biased (e.g. protest or warm glow) or suggest scenario rejection, traditionally all reasons for excluding responses from analysis. The current standard is to use purposeful questions to identify these responses. However, this strategy may be overlooking information from open-ended responses. We use a form of text analysis called sentiment analysis to identify and categorize the open-ended responses to our comments question at the end of our stated preference as positive, negative or neutral. The contingent valuation (CV) question is a single-shot donation. In it, respondents are asked whether they would donate a fixed amount to the help The Nature Conservancy develop an Invasive Species Rapid Response Fund to protect The Nature Conservancy's Waikamoi Preserve, which is the single-largest privately held nature preserve in the state of Hawai'i. Waikamoi Preserve's vast `Ōhi'a-dominant forest is the last stronghold for 63 species of rare plants and 10 species of birds, five of them endangered. These species are threatened by the introduction of invasive species and climate change. Respondents were told that the fund would be used to detect and quickly mitigate incipient invasive species, including Rapid `Ōhi'a Death, a potential threat to threat the conservation easement managed by The Nature Conservancy. ROD is already an immediate threat to Hawaiian forests and has already killed large quantities of Ōhi'a trees since it was first found on the Big Island of Hawai’i in 2014. We compare the WTP results based on using standard debriefing questions vs. sentiment analysis as well as the combination of the two to identify and exclude biased responses.   SESSION 2: Birds & Fish   Title:               Valuing the Service of Birds with Meta-Analysis Authors:         Matthew G. Interis, Seong Yun, Jessica Browne W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (task 2-3) Presenter:      Matthew G. Interis Email:             <a href="mailto:m.interis@msstate.edu">m.interis@msstate.edu</a>   Abstract:        Since the Renewable Fuel Standard was initiated in 2007, increased bioenergy crop production has become one of the main drivers of land-use changes (LUC) in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). Despite relatively abundant literature on LUC and ecosystem services changes, less attention has been given to how ecosystem service values are affected by bioenergy crop production, i.e., by changes in the crop mix in working agricultural land. In this study we partially fill this gap by estimating the value of changes in bird populations, one of the critical ecosystem services directly affected by LUC resulting from bioenergy crop production. We use meta-regression to estimate a benefits transfer function. The literature on valuation of bird services is relatively small, however, and the variety of measures of the relevant ecosystem change within this small literature creates a challenge in creating a data set for meta-regression. After summarizing these measures in the literature, we ultimately tabulate a data set of 91 observations from five different studies in which the value of a change in the number of birds is estimated. Explanatory variables include the guild of the bird under consideration and whether the species is endangered or threatened. With the estimated benefits transfer function, we use ecologist-generated estimates of bird population changes from biofuels-related LUC to estimate the value of changes in bird populations resulting from historical and predicted future LUC in the MRB. This work is part of a larger project on future LUC resulting from climate change and biofuels policy might affect the value of ecosystem services in the MRB.   Title:               Position-dependent attribute order effects in the presence of charismatic and non-                         charismatic birds Authors:         Sonja Kolstoe, Brian Vander Naald, Alison Cohan W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2-1), 3 (task 3-1) Presenter:      Sonja Kolstoe Email:             <a href="mailto:sonja.kolstoe@usda.gov">sonja.kolstoe@usda.gov</a>           Abstract:        Position-dependent attribute order effects are a concern to stated preference researchers because if they are present, they may result it in systematic differences in willingness to pay (WTP) for attributes. We test for the presence of position-dependent attribute ordering effects of endangered and threatened bird species embedded in a discrete choice experiment looking to value a birding-focused hike option into a conservation easement managed by The Nature Conservancy (TNC). The four main bird species in the conservation easement that attract visitors to the site were included as attributes in the birding hike choice task and were randomized. We include two forms of randomizations of the four featured bird species in the choice task: (1) we randomize the order of two yellow endemic bird species of different endangered status to be first or last, the kiwikiu or Maui Parrotbill (critically endangered) and the endemic `alauahio or Maui creeper (not currently listed as threatened) and (2) we randomize the order of the two most charismatic bird species in the second and third position the `ākohekohe or Crested Honeycreeper (endangered) and i`iwi or Scarlet Honeycreeper (threatened). In addition, we randomize the position of the attribute the chance of introducing invasive species, to include Rapid `Ōhi'a Death (ROD), to be either above or below the attributes with images. We only find evidence of attribute order effects for the Scarlet Honeycreeper and find lower WTP values for when it is featured in the third position relative to the second. Of the four species presented in the choice card, the Scarlet Honeycreeper is likely the most widely known due to: (1) being selected by the American Bird Association to be its “Bird of the Year” in 2018 and (2) being listed as “Threatened” under the federal Endangered Species Act as of 2017. Title:               Real Choice Experiments Generate Consistent Results Regardless of the Number                          of Choice Sets Authors:         Jerrod Penn, Wuyang Hu W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2-1) Presenter:      Jerrod Penn Email:             <a href="mailto:JPenn@agcenter.lsu.edu">JPenn@agcenter.lsu.edu</a>   Abstract:        Real Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) have been touted as a way of eliminating Hypothetical Bias (HB), asserting that by allowing one of the randomly determined choice sets binding or with real payment consequences, the choices made throughout the choice sets all represent real preferences. While a binding choice set exists over the entire DCE is certain, the probability per DCE choice set being binding is 1/n, where n is the total number of choice sets. The assertion that the existence of one binding choice set induces choices in all n choice sets to be real suggests preferences are equivalent regardless of the probability of a choice set being real. In reality, the chance of selection for a choice set being real in a 4-set DCE is four times greater than a 16-set DCE. One may question whether the number of choice sets may potentially affect responses. The question stems from observed behavior in payment consequentiality studies, with willingness to pay (WTP) decreasing as the probability of payment (e.g. payment consequentiality) increases. This study investigates whether there is a behavioral response to the number of choice sets in a real DCE. We show that the number of choice sets presented in the real DCE does not affect outcomes, meaning that the probability of any choice set being binding does not alter preferences.    SESSION 3: Where We Live   Title:               Valuation of Urban Greenspace and Incorporating Question Time  to Improve                               Choice Experiment Analysis Authors:         Jake Kennedy, Sahan Dissanayake, Randall Bluffstone, Jeff Kline W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (task 2-1) Presenter:      Jake Kennedy and Sahan Dissanayake Email:             <a href="mailto:jakekennedy@pdx.edu">jakekennedy@pdx.edu</a> ; <a href="mailto:sdissan2@gmail.com">sdissan2@gmail.com</a>      Abstract:      Accounting for attention and attribute non-attendance in choice experiment studies becomes more important with the increased use of online surveys to conduct stated preference research. In this presentation we share results from a choice experiment that uses a novel but easily implementable approach of tracking time spent on each choice question to improve the results. We use an application on understanding the values and preferences for urban forests and greenspaces to highlight the value of incorporating questioning timing into the analysis. Urban forests and green spaces are known to offer a variety of important use and non-use ecosystem service benefits for residents and each dollar spent on enhancing urban tree cover generates $1.37 - $3.09 per year in benefits. At the same time there are growing concerns about environmental justice issues surrounding how benefits from urban green space are distributed across socio-economic groups. Our application explores the use, barriers to use, and preferences and values for urban green space and how they vary across socio-demographic factors. We conduct the study in Portland, Oregon, an ideal location to explore these issues given the over 17,000 acres of park and urban natural areas that exist within the city boundaries. The data collection was conducted July through September 2020. Initial results highlight that while residents in the greater Portland area value and access urban green space, there are significant barriers and that these barriers vary across demographic groups. In analyzing the detailed timing information, we find evidence of learning, with the first choice question answered by the respondents taking more than twice as long as the last (7th) choice question. We also find that across all the choice questions, the estimation results are insignificant for the fastest 25% of the respondents and then excluding these respondents improves the efficiency of the overall estimates.             Title:               Text v. Images: Why Survey Design Matters for Choice Experiments Authors:         Noelwah R. Netusil, Sahan Dissanayake, Lauren Rabe, Amy Ando W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2-1) Presenter:      Noelwah R. Netusil Email:             <a href="mailto:netusil@reed.edu">netusil@reed.edu</a>   Abstract:        The use of images in choice experiments has grown: our recent survey of studies published in top-tier journals found that about 66% of studies used images in their choice cards in 2020, up from only 15% in 2011. While several best practices articles have focused on the importance of how a survey is worded, structured, and implemented, the literature on how attribute information is presented to respondents is quite limited. Shr et al. (2019) investigated the use of images or text in choice cards, while other studies have explored the effect of images and verbal explanations (Eppink et al. 2019), images and videos (Rid et al. 2018) and text and virtual reality displays (Patterson et al. 2017; Bateman et al. 2009). Results are mixed with some studies finding that results improve with visual information (Bateman et al. 2009; Shr et al. 2019) while others find that more complex displays of information result in decreased choice consistency (Eppink et al. 2019; Rid et al. 2018). We contribute to this literature by investigating the effect of using high-quality images or text in a choice experiment to estimate values and preferences for green roof attributes in Portland, Oregon. Preliminary results using conditional logit and mixed multinomial logit models show statistically significant differences for some attributes based on whether respondents saw images or only text. We also find evidence of heterogeneity for certain attributes when respondents saw an image, while for other attributes we find heterogeneity when respondents saw only text. Overall, we find that survey design (images versus text) has an effect on the significance, magnitude and dispersion of some estimated coefficients, which highlights the importance of integrating how attributes are represented into the survey design process.              Title:               Valuing Impacts of Proximity to Saguaro National Park on House Prices Authors:         Julie Mueller, John Loomis, Leslie Richardson, Ryan A. Fitch W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 3 (task 3-2) Presenter:      Julie Mueller Email:             <a href="mailto:Julie.Mueller@nau.edu">Julie.Mueller@nau.edu</a>             Abstract:        Saguaro National Park is adjacent to the Tucson Metropolitan Area, with a population of around one million. Previous research elsewhere has found positive house price premiums for homeowners living proximate to open space and federal public lands such as National Wildlife Refuges. However, this effect has not been studied for homeowners living proximate to National Parks. To the authors’ knowledge, we present the first estimate of the impact of National Parks on nearby property values. We compare the standard constant house price premium with two models that introduce nonlinearity in the implicit price of proximity to Saguaro National Park and demonstrate the varying effect of distance on the implicit price.                           We use a hedonic property model to estimate the value of proximity to Saguaro National Park on housing prices in Tucson, Arizona. Our dataset contains single family home sales from 2015 to 2019 (n=20,877). Preliminary results show a statistically significant and positive influence of proximity to Saguaro National Park. In addition to a rich set of structural, neighborhood and demographic attributes, we also include distance measures to other public lands without National Park designation. We investigate three ways of modeling proximity of a house to Saguaro National Park: (1) standard distance the home is to the Park; (2) distance and distance squared; (3) grouping houses by distance bands. Results using the standard distance indicate a 2.9% drop in house price per 1 km increase in distance to Saguaro. The model incorporating distance squared demonstrates a price premium of 4.3% for houses closest to the Park and diminishes to zero at approximately 11 km from the Park. The distance band model price premium ranges from 12.74% for the nearest houses to 2% for houses 2-3km away. Our results provide insight for policymakers regarding community benefits of National Parks and National Park designation.    SESSION 4: Measurement and Data   Title:               Multi-state financial data for use with the Agricultural Conservation Planning                              Framework (ACPF) Authors:         Emma Bravard, Dave James, Emily Zimmerman, John Tyndall W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 3 (task 3-1) Presenter:      Emma Bravard Email:             <a href="mailto:ebravard@iastate.edu">ebravard@iastate.edu</a>   Abstract:        The Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework (ACPF) is a GIS-based conservation planning tool that uses high-resolution elevation and water flow data to spatially identify critical source areas for nitrogen loss within agricultural watersheds. The ACPF allows users to explore different Best Management Practice opportunities and analyze potential nutrient loss reduction outcomes. We’ve developed 1) a multi-state financial data set; and 2) a field-scale nitrogen reduction tool for use when analyzing different conservation scenarios. This financial and expected field scale nitrogen loss data is used to calculate total long term cost and cost effectiveness of various conservation plans.  To create financial data we calculated direct long-term annualized costs for BMP installation and management in the following states - Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Financial assessments were done with enterprise budgets and discounted cash flow techniques. The tool quantifies the nitrogen requirements for each field, based on 6-year land-use data, and evaluates the proportion of that nitrogen that is likely to be lost from the field via leaching as N load. Practices accounted for are drainage management, grassed waterways, cover crops, contour buffer strips/ prairie strips, water and sediment control basins, bioreactors, saturated buffers, nutrient removal wetlands, and multi-species and grassed riparian buffers. Land use opportunity costs of BMPs that require removing cropped/pastured land from production (e.g., grassed waterways, vegetative filter strips, buffer strips, wetlands), are spatially determined according to state-relevant weighted-average crop productivity indices and land rent relationships. The combination of this data will assist water quality stakeholders and technical service providers determine where conservation practices should be placed on the landscape to yield the most effective and lowest cost Nitrate-N reduction at a watershed scale.  We illustrate how these financial analyses can be accomplished with the ACPF using case study watersheds in Iowa and Illinois.   Title:               Monitoring Recreation Visitation in the National Forest System Authors:         Don English, Eric White, Luanne Lohr W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-3) Presenter:      Don English Email:             <a href="mailto:Donald.English@usda.gov">Donald.English@usda.gov</a>       Abstract:        The USDA Forest Service (FS) measures the volume and character of recreation visitation through its national visitor monitoring program.  That same program provides data needed to estimate the market effects and nonmarket benefits of recreational use of NFS lands.  The comprehensive sampling approach it employs allows expansion from the onsite sample to the entire population of forest visitation.  By October 2019, three national iterations of data had been collected.  The Covid-19 pandemic imposed several limitations to the data collection process starting in March 2020.  Concerns about safety of visitors and field personnel, stay-at-home orders, and site closures all played a role.  Many of the same limits are in play for 2021.  As social media data becomes more ubiquitous, ongoing research is examining how those data might be used to augment and improve the estimates of visitation that this program generates.                         This presentation reviews the sampling process that underlies the FS data and highlights the benefit measures for which it has been used thus far.  We also discuss the adjustments made in response the pandemic and give indications of how visitation changed during the summer of 2020.  Finally, we discuss likely future development of and additions to the program and applications that can be made of the data.    Title:               An Analysis of Agricultural Intensification and Crop Diversity: Contemporary                              Crop Diversity and Predicted Changes by Bioenergy Consumption Scenarios Authors:         Seong Yun, Matthew Interis W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1) Presenter:      Seong Yun Email:             <a href="mailto:seong.yun@msstate.edu">seong.yun@msstate.edu</a>           Abstract:        It is a well-studied fact that changing landscape affects ecosystem services. Particularly, agricultural expansion and intensification are considered major drivers of biodiversity loss, soil and freshwater degradation, and greenhouse gas emission. In the literature, agricultural lands are generally categorized into one landscape (e.g., “agriculture”) and supposed to provide homogenous (dis)ecosystem services. Recent studies, however, demonstrate that crop mixture or crop diversity could provide heterogeneous ecosystem benefits and reduce monocultural pressure on the ecosystem. Besides, precision agriculture is designed and targeted to maximize these ecosystem benefits from crop diversity. Cover crops and conservation agriculture are representative examples of increased heterogeneity in agricultural fields and enhanced ecosystem services. To study the impact of crop diversity on ecosystem services, measuring how diverse crop plantations in agricultural lands are, is crucial. The areal size or percentage of each crop is a reasonable initial approach. However, while these measures measure the scale of each crop, they do not present the diversity or the level of heterogeneity. This study suggests modifying the biodiversity index (e.g., Shannon index, Renyi entropy index, or Gini-Simpson index) to apply it to crop acreage. To measure the changes of crop diversity in contemporary periods, we build land-use acreage data (20 for agricultural categories and 7 for others) using the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), calculate the various diversity indices, and discuss the results. We also analyze the changes of these indices with the POLYSYS simulation models (a partial equilibrium model of crop production responses to consumption scenarios) under various renewable fuel crop production and energy consumption scenarios.   Title:               Public access, ecological integrity, and the value of grassland restoration Authors:         Amy Ando, Sarah Cline, Sahan Dissanayake, Rich Iovanna, Kaylee Wells W4133 obj.:   1 (tasks 1-1, 1-3) Presenter:      Amy Ando Email:             <a href="mailto:amyando@illinois.edu">amyando@illinois.edu</a>   Abstract:        Grassland, or prairie, ecosystems provide many benefits to society including species habitat, carbon sequestration, soil erosion control, and recreational opportunities. At the same time, grassland ecosystems in North America are disappearing, with grassland loss in most areas exceeding 80% since the mid-1800’s; in Illinois the loss is 99.9%.  The USDA protects and restores grasslands through the Conservation Reserve Program. However, it is more costly for farmers to plant high quality grassland habitat on CRP acres, and much remains unknown about public willingness to pay (WTP) for grassland restoration projects and how that varies with grassland quality and public access to restored grasslands. This study quantifies the relationship between the value of grassland restoration and its ecological quality and public access. We use a choice experiment survey of residents in the Tallgrass Prairie region that includes area restored, ecological quality, public access with and without hunting, and annual cost to households as attributes. This study will directly inform the enrollment and payment practices of USDA conservation programs by identifying how much more value people place on diverse, ecologically functional grasslands compared to grassy monocultures. The study also provides information on how important it could be to provide public access and permits for recreation activities like hunting on privately-owned CRP grasslands. Full data analysis will not be complete for this presentation. However, we will present the choice experiment survey and preliminary results from pilot data.   SESSION 5: Water Quality   Title:               Getting off the Ladder: Disentangling Water Quality Indices to Enhance the                                  Valuation of Divergent Ecosystem Services Authors:         Frank Lupi, Joseph Herriges, R. Jan Stevenson, Hyunjung Kim W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (task 2-1), 3 (task 3-2) Presenter:      Frank Lupi Email:             <a href="mailto:lupi@msu.edu">lupi@msu.edu</a>     Abstract:        The capacity to estimate total value benefits from water quality improvements has important consequences for US federal regulatory analyses. While there have been advances in total value benefit estimation over the past four decades, knowledge gaps remain that prevent total value benefits (both use and non-use) from being included in many benefit-cost analyses. In 2015, US EPA issued request for proposals for projects that “advance knowledge of how changes in water quality […] can be valued at appropriate spatial scales using advanced non-use valuation methods for the Nation’s inland fresh water small streams, lakes and rivers, estuaries, coastal waters, and the Great Lakes.” The resulting interdisciplinary projects are directly relevant to the W4133’s core objectives, highlight important collaborations across multiple institutions, and demonstrate new ways to estimate water quality benefits. This session presents preliminary results from these groundbreaking studies, focusing on methodological advances, empirical findings and policy relevance.   Title:               Measuring the Benefits of Water Quality Improvements in Urban Streams: An                               Ecological Production Function Approach Authors:         Roger von Haefen, George Van Houtven, Sasha Naumenko W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (tasks 2-1, 2-2), 3 (tasks 3-1 3-2) Presenter:      Roger von Haefen Email:             <a href="mailto:roger_von_haefen@ncsu.edu">roger_von_haefen@ncsu.edu</a>   Abstract:        The capacity to estimate total value benefits from water quality improvements has important consequences for US federal regulatory analyses. While there have been advances in total value benefit estimation over the past four decades, knowledge gaps remain that prevent total value benefits (both use and non-use) from being included in many benefit-cost analyses. In 2015, US EPA issued request for proposals for projects that “advance knowledge of how changes in water quality […] can be valued at appropriate spatial scales using advanced non-use valuation methods for the Nation’s inland fresh water small streams, lakes and rivers, estuaries, coastal waters, and the Great Lakes.” The resulting interdisciplinary projects are directly relevant to the W4133’s core objectives, highlight important collaborations across multiple institutions, and demonstrate new ways to estimate water quality benefits. This session presents preliminary results from these groundbreaking studies, focusing on methodological advances, empirical findings and policy relevance.   Title:               Modeling Spatial Dimensions of Water Quality Value in New England River                                  Networks Authors:         Robert Johnston, Elena Besedin, Stefano Crema, Klaus Moeltner, Tom Ndebele,                           Seth Peery, Robert Stewart, Wilfred M. Wollheim, Zhenyu Yao W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (task 2-2), 3 (task 3-2) Presenter:      Robert Johnston Email:             <a href="mailto:rjohnston@clarku.edu">rjohnston@clarku.edu</a>   Abstract:        The capacity to estimate total value benefits from water quality improvements has important consequences for US federal regulatory analyses. While there have been advances in total value benefit estimation over the past four decades, knowledge gaps remain that prevent total value benefits (both use and non-use) from being included in many benefit-cost analyses. In 2015, US EPA issued request for proposals for projects that “advance knowledge of how changes in water quality […] can be valued at appropriate spatial scales using advanced non-use valuation methods for the Nation’s inland fresh water small streams, lakes and rivers, estuaries, coastal waters, and the Great Lakes.” The resulting interdisciplinary projects are directly relevant to the W4133’s core objectives, highlight important collaborations across multiple institutions, and demonstrate new ways to estimate water quality benefits. This session presents preliminary results from these groundbreaking studies, focusing on methodological advances, empirical findings and policy relevance.   Title:               The Effect of the Conservation Stewardship Program on Nitrogen Concentrations                                     in the Illinois River Basin Authors:         Hsin-Chieh Hsieh, Ben Gramig W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 3 (task 3-1) Presenter:      Hsin-Chieh Hsieh Email:             <a href="mailto:hhsieh11@illinois.edu">hhsieh11@illinois.edu</a>   Abstract:        The hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico is largely the result of intensive agriculture in the Midwest. Excess nutrients from farming activities are the primary source of water quality degradation. The impact of agricultural conservation practices on ambient water quality has been studied using hydrological simulation models and the empirical literature has explored the slippage and additionality effects of conservation-driven land retirement through the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Empirical evidence of the effect of working-land conservation programs on observed ambient water quality remains scant. This study quantifies the impact of the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP) on riverine nitrogen concentrations. We exploit the National Hydrography Dataset to account for streamflow direction, and aggregate contiguous HUC 12 watersheds to form monitoring basins between upstream and downstream monitoring stations that are the unit of analysis. We control for active conservation contracts, land use land cover, and weather over space and time. The spatial connectivity of monitoring basins allows us to control for upstream pollutant measurements at downstream locations. Using a panel two-way fixed effects (TWFE) approach, we find that a 10% increase in the percentage of land enrolled in CSP reduces ambient nitrogen concentration by 0.5-1 mg/l in basins with and without inflow from upstream. Because the CSP is deployed everywhere starting in the same year there are very few observed counterfactuals with no treatment after CSP began. Machine learning (ML) is well-suited to constructing unobserved counterfactuals because the goal is to generate a good overall prediction not isolate the effect of any particular variable. We use ML to predict the unobserved counterfactual and estimate the average treatment effect as a robustness check on TWFE. We find that a 10% increase in CSP treatment results in a 0.5 mg/l reduction in ambient N concentration equivalent to about 15% of the average level.    SESSION 6: Land   Title:               Who benefits from local food, nature conservation, and farmland preservation? Authors:         Frederick Nyanzu, Amy Ando, Bryan Parthum W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2-1) Presenter:      Frederick Nyanzu Email:             <a href="mailto:fnyanzu2@illinois.edu">fnyanzu2@illinois.edu</a>   Abstract:        Land conservation can provide ecosystem services to society, especially in developing peri-urban areas, and a growing movement is pushing to expand urban local food supplies. However, little is known about what groups of people benefit most from such conservation and local food. Evidence shows inequity in who has access to open space in the U.S., but much more is known about inequity in exposure to environmental bads than in benefits from environmental goods. Historic structures have excluded many groups of marginalized people from protected nature and from farm ownership, so such conservation may well be valued most highly by white residents of metropolitan areas. Food insecurity is also borne unequally by different racial groups, so food available for foraging might be appreciated more by marginalized groups. The research will conduct a choice experiment survey of residents of four metropolitan areas in New England and the Midwest to explore how race and food security are related to an individual’s willingness to pay for protecting nature and farmland and for increasing local food supply. We answer the following questions: (1) Does willingness to pay (WTP) for protecting nature and protecting farmland vary among racial and ethnic groups? (2) Do race and food insecurity affect WTP for food available for local foraging, and is marketed local food valued most highly by white residents? (3) Valuation research finds WTP for conservation often declines with distance from a respondent’s home; does the choice experiment method more accurately capture such distance decay in a community with diverse access to individual car transport if distance in the survey is measured in travel time for the respondent rather than miles? (We will present the survey and experimental design and preliminary results from pilot data; the full set of responses may not yet be ready for analysis.)    Title:               The recreational value of grassland restoration in the time of COVID-19 Authors:         Kaylee Wells W4133 obj.:   1 (tasks 1-1, 1-3), 2 (tasks 2-1, 2-2) Presenter:      Kaylee Wells Email:             <a href="mailto:kkwells2@illinois.edu">kkwells2@illinois.edu</a>     Abstract:        Grassland, or prairie, ecosystems provide many benefits to society including species habitat, carbon sequestration, soil erosion control, and recreational opportunities. Previous research estimated willingness to pay (WTP) for grassland restoration (Dissanayake and Ando 2014; Li and Ando 2020) but that work was based on choice experiment data. Although Li and Ando (2020) investigate some parts of the relationship between the value of grassland restoration, recreational opportunities at the restored grassland, and ecological quality, much remains unknown. This study explores the relationship between the recreational value of grasslands and their ecological quality using a travel cost survey of Tallgrass Prairie region residents. I contribute to travel cost methodology with a novel approach to defining the consumer choice set; using a machine learning model and geolocated images from Flickr to identify grasslands near survey respondents’ home zip codes. I build upon this initial machine learning model and photo dataset to pioneer a method for classifying the quality of grasslands. Finally, I use spatial variance in the severity of COVID-19 prevalence and formal lockdown regulations to advance understanding of the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on the values people place on nature conservation and outdoor recreation. Full data analysis will not be complete for this presentation. However, I will provide the results of a ground truth test of the machine learning model for grassland identification and discuss plans for building the grassland quality identification and travel cost models.   Title:               Preferences for Utility-scale Solar Energy Siting: The Importance of Prior Land                           Use Authors:         Corey Lang, Vasundhara Gaur, Greg Howard, Ruth Quainoo W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (task 2-1) Presenter:      Corey Lang Email:             <a href="mailto:clang@uri.edu">clang@uri.edu</a>                 Abstract:        Despite growth in the production of solar energy, one factor that has the potential of curtailing this rapid progress is citizen opposition to the siting utility-scale projects. Large-scale solar PV electricity production requires a large amount of land relative to other fuel types. In southern New England, solar developers often target farmland and forest land because these are the cheapest places to build. However, many citizens decry these outcomes due to the loss of ecosystem services, scarce farmland, and rural character. Alternative sites include covered landfills and brownfields, which are better environmentally, but are more expensive and would increase the cost of electricity. The purpose of this research is to estimate preferences for the siting of utility-scale solar installations so that non-market values for various siting attributes can be incorporated into decision making. We develop a choice experiment survey where respondents are presented with hypothetical development plans of solar energy installations. Among other attributes, these development plans highlighted the current land use for the development site in question (forest, farmland, commercial land, or brownfield) as well as the financial impact on households of the plan, measured as changes to their monthly electric bill. We distributed the survey to a random sample of Rhode Island residents and the survey used a mixed-mode approach of both mail and online responses. Our results suggest that preferences for solar development varies greatly based on current land use, with respondents having strong preference in favor of development on commercial and brownfield land and moderate to strong opposition to development on farmland and forest land.   Title:               Valuing Soil Organic Carbon on US Agricultural Land Authors:         Dale Manning, Mani Rouhi Rad, Stephen Ogle W4133 obj.:   1 (tasks 1-1, 1-4) Presenter:      Dale Manning Email:             <a href="mailto:dale.manning@colostate.edu">dale.manning@colostate.edu</a>   Abstract:        As carbon accumulates in the atmosphere, interest in storing carbon in agricultural soils has surged. Despite increased efforts to incentivize adoption of practices and technologies that build soil organic carbon (SOC), little is known about the private value of SOC stocks. We use a Ricardian approach to examine the on-farm value of SOC. We leverage novel data produced for the EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory that provide annual estimates of the average SOC stock level for all Major Land Resource Areas in the US. SOC stocks in agricultural soils have increased due to the use of modern agricultural practices and inputs. While producer production practices affected SOC stocks, farmers did not historically target SOC stocks explicitly. Further, SOC stocks change at a slow rate and are exogenous at the time of most on-farm decisions. This slow evolution of SOC allows identification of the impact of SOC on land values. We compare the private value to the external value and draw lessons for carbon policy moving forward. We find that one additional metric tonne of SOC per acre (4.8% of 2015 average stock per acre) is worth $91 per acre or 3 percent of average land values in 2015. Exploration of heterogeneous impacts suggest that the benefits of increased SOC cover most US regions. Our results imply that the additional SOC in US agricultural soils since 1950 produces a social stock value of $168.6 billion, with 31% coming from the external benefits valued at a carbon price of $40 per tonne. Our results suggest that increased SOC stocks produced economically significant value during the last half-century and that the external value is a significant share of the total. Future work should examine the drivers of historic SOC increases to reveal policy mechanisms that can align private and socially optimal investment in soils.

Impact Statements

Impacts Objective 1: Resource Management Colorado State University: The Ogallala CAP brought together researchers, groundwater managers, and state and federal policymakers to examine the options for sustainably using the Ogallala aquifer. This effort should lead to the implementation of management strategies that are effective and appropriate for the wide range of contexts across the 8 Ogallala states. Analysis of spatially varying taxation of natural resources (oil) informed debate on appropriate taxation structure in Alaska (2020 ballot measure 1). The COVID-19 pandemic is a natural hazard that affected almost every facet of life in 2020. We redirected research effort to aid in the response to the pandemic. We published several papers and reports that applied economic principals to understand the consequences of pandemic policy. We published a paper in Lancet Public Health on the impact of school closures on childcare obligations of health care workers. We extended this dataset and built a dashboard to communicate this information more broadly (https://covid.yale.edu/innovation/mapping/childcare/). This dashboard was cited in a letter from several senators to Shannon Christian Director, Office of Child Care Administration for Children and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. We built a related tool to illustrate the potential health risk to US county workforces (https://foodsystems.colostate.edu/covid19/county-labor-force-risk/). We modeled the potential for COVID-19 to spread during wildfire suppression operations. In addition, we built a decision support tool to help incident commanders assess and manage COVID-19 related risk (https://covid-camp-sim.shinyapps.io/covid_fire_dashboard/?_ga=2.144575666.620479738.1617680996-1946506161.1610571199). In addition to publications, Jude Bayham served on COVID-19 task forces for the state of Colorado and Colorado State University. The task force develops weekly briefings for the CO Governor on the state of the pandemic and potential scenarios. The CSU task force conducted analysis to inform the design of a test and isolate protocol during the Fall 2020 and Spring 2021 semesters. Mississippi State University: The work of investigator Petrolia supported MS thesis research of MS student Shea Gould. Oregon State University: Findings from Dundas and Lewis (2020) and Beasley and Dundas (2021) on coastal land use in Oregon and Washington were presented to stakeholders and state officials considering changes to current land-use laws. Dundas was a panelist for a virtual public lecture (~200 attendees) on managing coastal land use for the Oregon Coastal Management Program and the Oregon King Tide Photo Project. Dundas is co-PI of a 4-year (2018 - 2022) interdisciplinary grant funded by Oregon Sea Grant Envisioning a Resilient Oregon Coast: Co-developing Alternative Futures for Adaptation Planning and Decision-Making ($873,628). Lewis is co-PI (with w4133 member Dan Bigelow) of a new 3-year (2021-2024) USDA NIFA Foundational Program grant How do urbanization and other large-scale drivers affect timber and farmland markets? A parcel-level national econometric analysis. ($500,000). (Objective 1,3) Lewis is lead PI (with w4133 member Brent Sohngen) of a 4-year (2017-2021) USDA NIFA Foundational Program grant Adaptation to Climate Change in Forestry – A Plot-Level Econometric Analysis of Forest Management in the Conterminous United States. ($500,000). (Objective 1, 3) Lewis is lead PI of a 3-year (2018 - 2024) USDA Forest Service grant RPA Land-Use Modeling through a joint venture agreement with USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station (Forest Service Agreement No. 18-JV-11330155-023; $457,459). Kling co-lead a National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) tutorial on quantitative methods for adaptive management of natural resources. The tutorial drew an international group of early-career and graduate student trainees who received small-group instruction and original lectures. (Objectives 1, 3) University of Illinois: Ando gave a virtual keynote talk in March 2020 at the “Economics of Biodiversity Conservation under Climate Change: Programme Video Conference” in Berlin, Germany. The talk was titled “Biodiversity Conservation under Climate Change: Shifting Landscapes and Preferences.” Gramig worked with a doctoral student to complete a preliminary analysis to quantify the effect of the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP) on ambient nutrient concentrations in the Illinois River Basin. In related work using similar data, Gramig work with collaborators at Purdue University and Shanghai University to estimate the empirical effect of CSP and Environmental Quality Incentives Program conservation contracts on water quality in the Wabash River Basin of Indiana and Illinois. In 2020-2021 Gramig served as lead author of the agriculture chapter of a state climate change impacts assessment for the state of Illinois. This was done in collaboration with other scientists at UIUC, University of Illinois-Chicago, Northwestern University and The Nature Conservancy in Illinois. The report will be released to the public in April 2021. University of Nebraska-Lincoln: All publications are around groundwater management policies. New insights into the importance of well yield, economic welfare loss in using imperfect measures of water uses, and the implications of the temporal dimension of groundwater allocations can inform policy makers to design more effective groundwater management policies. University of Tennessee: Created an empirically-informed knowledge base for conservation agencies to allocate a payment budget for forest carbon sequestration across counties at a given point in time during an upturn or downturn. University of Rhode Island: Over the past few decades the local food movement has been a growing niche market in the agriculture industry. In the United States from 2002 to 2012 farm operations with direct-to-consumer sales increased from 116,733 to 144,530 (Low et al., 2015). Farmers markets have increased by 180% from 2006 to 2014, totaling 8,268 farmers markets in 2014. The rise in the local food movement is important as local food systems can play a key role in strengthening the local economy and benefiting the community. Considerable research has been done on consumers preferences, attitudes, and willingness to pay for local food both domestically and internationally. However, to the best of our knowledge, to date there has been no economic assessment on Rhode Island’s “Get Fresh. Buy Local” agriculture label nor in general on Rhode Islander attitudes, preferences, and definition of local food. Also, there is a lack of studies that analyze multiple products, such as plant vs animal and fresh vs processed in the United States. Utah State University: Results have been disseminated to all of these audiences over the life of the project. In addition to publication in refereed journals, I met with policymakers from the Governor’s Public Lands Policy Coordination Office, the Office of Tourism, and the Office of Outdoor Recreation, as well as consulting with the regional US National Park Service office on congestion issues at Utah's national parks. In outreach efforts to the general public, I was interviewed by reporters from KVNU radio (Salt Lake city) and from the Wall Street Journal, and the Salt Lake Tribune. University of Wyoming: Estimates of conservation easement values and development risk are informing state-level tax policies related to easements, and are being used by NGO to target conservation easements. Estimates of landowner benefits form migration corridor conservation are being used to inform landowners and policymakers. Objective 2: Economic Valuation Colorado State University: Our paper informs utilities on the potential effectiveness of xeriscaping subsidies in the presence of conformity motives. Subsidies are less effective when homeowners are concerned with their neighbor’s opinions. Mississippi State University: The work of investigator Petrolia supported MS thesis research of MS student Kelvin Amon. Oregon State University: Dundas is lead PI of a 6-year (2015 - 2021) interdisciplinary grant funded by NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) Assessing the Benefits of Natural Infrastructure for Shoreline Stabilization: Ecosystem Service Valuation for Decision-making in Coastal Communities. ($1,399,960). (Objectives 2, 3) Kling is lead PI on a Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (NOAA subaward) grant Marginal economic values of Pacific halibut and Pacific salmon ($33,465) (Objectives 1, 2) University of Illinois: Research by Amy Ando and Liqing Li on the influence of early childhood experience on grassland valuation (“Early Exposure to Nature and WTP for Conservation”) was presented by Ando in October 2020 at Michigan State University and December 2020 at Penn State University. University of Rhode Island: This research contributes to the literature on the public acceptance of solar farms establishment in USA while there are different economic benefits schemes available to the community. Prior research mainly consists of surveys of European communities (Walker, Russel, & Kurz, 2017) (Walker, Wiersma, & Bailey, 2014). These studies find a higher acceptance of renewable energy farms in the communities where a portion of the revenues generated comes back to the community as a community benefit. So, there exists a gap in the literature on how communities around the U.S. react to different types of benefit schemes while making decisions regarding solar farm establishments in their community. Our research will possibly be among the first ones to understand this phenomenon in the U.S. Additionally, the results of our research may be used by local stakeholders in the approval process of solar farms. Virginia Tech University: Free-form choice experiment: I presented the modeling framework and preliminary results at the annual EPA meeting for PI's of this grant-funded research. Co-author Johnston also presented results at the 2021 W4133 annual (virtual) meetings. Red tide air toxins: I presented results from this project at the 2021 W4133 annual (virtual) meetings. I also shared my findings with various agencies involved in Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) research. Objective 3: Integrated Policy and Decision-Making Mississippi State University: The work of investigators Yun and Interis has supported undergraduate research efforts of two undergraduate students and the MS thesis research of one MS student. North Carolina State University: Results will help federal, state, and local policy makers as the grapple with proposed changes to gear restrictions that could impact SAV acreage. Oregon State University: Dundas co-authored an op-ed in Capitol Weekly (California) discussing the need for climate policy to integrate both terrestrial and marine solutions. Published as: Levine, A. S., Lewison, R. L., and S. J. Dundas. Op-ed, Capitol Weekly. Teal Deal: Add Blue to the Green New Deal. May 26th, 2020. Link Dundas is co-PI of a 3-year (2019 - 2022) interdisciplinary grant funded by NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) Optimizing the Ecosystem Services of US Pacific Northwest Coastal Beaches and Dunes through Adaptation Planning ($748,536). (Objectives 1, 2, 3) Dundas is co-PI of a 3-year (2019 - 2022) interdisciplinary grant funded by NOAA Coastal and Climate Applications (COCA) Assessing Climate-Related Risk and Adaptation Options for Water Suppliers along the Oregon Coast ($299,449). (Objectives 1, 3) Dundas is co-PI of a 2-year (2020-2022) interdisciplinary grant funded by the Oregon Department of Transportation US Highway 101 Coastal Hazard Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Mitigation Prioritization. Oregon Department of Transportation. ($289,500). Kling is co-PI of a 4-year NOAA Ocean Acidification Program award Vulnerability and adaptation to ocean acidification among Pacific Northwest mussel and oyster stakeholders. ($672,965). Kling is lead PI on a NOAA NCCOS grant Evaluation of mitigation strategies for harmful algal blooms in the west coast Dungeness crab fishery ($1,173,193) (Objectives 1, 3) Pennsylvania State University: Jacobson, PI 2020-2023. Theory of Change Observatory on Disaster Resilience. Belmont Forum (NSF funded) $300,000 Jacobson, Co-PI. 2020-2024. Food Resilience in the Face of Catastrophic Global Events. Open Philanthropy Foundation. $3,064,660 University of Illinois: Gramig mentored one doctoral student on how to work as part of an interdisciplinary project team, to deliver economic components as inputs to other elements of the project and to use hydrological and engineering modeling results as inputs to economic analysis. This work is conducting integrated engineering, hydrological and economic modeling to address water quality problems originating from both point and non-point sources in the Upper Sangamon River of Illinois. Gramig participated in two different organized sessions as part of the (virtual) annual meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. Both sessions focused on research to address public policy objectives surrounding nutrient loss reduction from agricultural land and industries in the Corn Belt region. Gramig presented research about phosphorus pollution integrating economics with engineering models of treatment technologies and hydrology, and using ambient water quality measurements to assess the impact of USDA conservation programs on nutrient pollution measurements in Indiana and Illinois rivers. University of Wyoming: Habitat conservation exchange development in Wyoming being impacted by our research, particularly as it relates to credit failure risk and market design for sage grouse habitat. Project: Land Conservation decisions and preferences for placing conservation easements on agricultural lands. Impact: The first paper encourages researchers to consider a broader set of economic incentives when measuring “Sense of Place”. The second paper finds that landowners are less likely to reject a CE agreement when there is a desire to bequest agricultural land to the next generation or a perceived threat to sense of place; however, conservation ethic mitigates intergenerational bequest effects. This indicates that conservation ethic encompasses a desire to pass land to the next generation.

Date of Annual Report: 06/25/2022

Report Information

Annual Meeting Dates: 04/25/2022 - 04/27/2022
Period the Report Covers: 03/01/2021 - 02/28/2022

Participants

Participants (58)
Bold indicates presenters

Officers
Steve Dundas Oregon State University
Jerrod Penn Louisiana State University
Jesse Burkhardt Colorado State University
Ken White Utah State University
In-Person Attendees
Jennifer Alix-Garcia Oregon State University
Amy Ando University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Jude Bayham Colorado State University
Dan Bigelow Montana State University
Sophie Croome Boise State University
Chris Davies Utah State University
Sahan Dissanayake Portland State University
Amila Hadziomerspahic Oregon State University
Rob Johnston Clark University
Jake Kennedy Portland State University
Sonja Kolstoe US Forest Service
Craig Landry University of Georgia
Corey Lang University of Rhode Island
Lynne Lewis Bates College
Andrew Lewis Northern Arizona University
Liqing Li CSU Fullerton
Dede Long CSU Long Beach
Frank Lupi Michigan State University
Jamal Mamkhezri New Mexico St. University
Dale Manning Colorado State University
Klaus Moeltner Virginia Tech
Nanette Nelson University of Montana
Noelwah Netusil Reed College
Bryan Parthum EPA
Lee Parton Boise State University
Anna Perry University of Georgia
Max Pohlman Penn State University
Mani Rouhi Rad Clemson University
Jose Sanchez US Forest Service
Matt Sloggy US Forest Service
Brent Sohngen Ohio State University
Laura Taylor Georgia Tech
Dilek Uz University of Nevada-Reno
George Van Houtven RTI International
Brian vanderNald Drake University
Roger von Haefen North Carolina State University
Kaylee Wells University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Virtual Attendees
Shadi Attalah University of IUC
Kathleen Bell University of Maine
Xiang Bi GAO
Trudy Cameron University of Oregon
Frank Casey USGS
Kate Fuller Montana State
Chris Huber USGS
James Meldrum USGS
Chris Moore EPA
Thaneswhar Paneru University of New Mexico
Sonia Refulio Coronado University of Rhode Island
Charlie Rhodes USGS
Chales Towe Uconn
Tara Wade University of Florida
Will Wheeler EPA
Hannah Wing Montana State University
Katie Zipp Penn State University

Brief Summary of Minutes

Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

Current President Steve Dundas called the meeting to order at 5:00 pm on 04/26/2022. There were four major elements discussed.

The first order of business was to discuss the successful re-charter of the group, W5133 "Economic Valuation and Management of Natural Resources on Public and Private Lands" from October 2022 to September 2027. Steve discussed the difficulty putting together the annual report because of the format of universities' individual reports. Each state's annual report should be succinct and follow a template matching the NIMSS format

The second order of business was discussion to respond to the request for additional outreach in the group. Several points included:

Better showcasing our outreach (presenting work to agencies, resource managers, non-economists, etc.) and the impact (changed policy, behavior, etc.)

A potential website to showcase past meetings and links to members' webpages.

The third order of business was to elect a new officer, an incoming Secretary. Corey Lang (Univ. Rhode Island) nominated himself. There were no other nominations and there was unanimous support for his nomination.

The fourth order of business was discussion of next year’s meeting. Several points of feedback were provided:

Overall enthusiasm to be back in person and towards staying in-person even if it meant changing dates.

If possible, a desire to return to meeting in February/early March on Wednesday-Friday schedule

Steven Dundas will share the budgets with Jerrod Penn

Jerrod Penn proposed San Antonio, TX or New Orleans, LA as potential sites for the 2023 annual meeting. Meeting participants were supportive of both locations.

Steven Dundas ends his three-year officer rotation. The group is especially thankful for his work on the recharter of W5133. Jerrod Penn begins his term as President, Jesse Burkhardt transitions from Secretary to Vice-President, and Corey Lang begins his officer rotation as Secretary.

The meeting was adjourned at 5:45 pm.

The Accomplishments, Outreach, and Publications of W4133 in 2021 is based on reports from the following 15 institutions:

Colorado State University

Kansas State University

Louisiana State University

Michigan State University

Mississippi State University

Montana State University

Northern Arizona University

Oregon State University

University of Georgia

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

University of Maine

University of Rhode Island

University of Tennessee

University of Wyoming

Virginia Tech

Accomplishments

<h1>Accomplishments</h1>   <h2>Objective 1: Resource Management</h2> Colorado State University: <ul> <li>Manning and co-authors demonstrated that while natural disasters can affect beliefs about climate change and support for policies, impacts are small and inconsistent across disasters.</li> <li>Manning and co-authors completed research illustrating variation in the value of groundwater in the Midwest as well as how irrigators respond to electricity prices and nearby irrigated land retirement.</li> </ul>   Kansas State University: <ul> <li>(Task 1-1 and 2-1): We examined farmers' willingness to grow oilseeds under contract for use in biojet fuel production, which can help to mitigate climate change and improve conservation on the land scape through more advantageous crop rotations. We examined different oilseed crop (harvest windows, pesticide resistance, shatter resistance, and winter hardiness) and contract attributes (returns to production, contract length, crop insurance, cost-share, and risk) that farmers would desire. In addition, we estimated farmers' willingness-to-pay for these attributes and the likelihood that farmers would grow oilseeds under different contract scenarios. We find that net returns from oilseed production plays a very significant, impacting the likelihood of farmers growing and estimated supply of oilseed production that may occur for biojet fuel in the western U.S. Farmers prefer shorter more flexible contracts with cost share and crop insurance options. In addition, they are willing-to-pay for desirable crop attributes, such as pesticide resistance. Oilseed production for biojet fuel will compete with other oilseed production, as well. This research helps to meet project objectives by helping farmers, policymakers and agribusiness better understand the needs for establishing  a supply chain for biojet fuel at the farm level, the level of supply that may initially be provided for such an industry, how farmers can benefit in such a supply chain, conservation and land-use impacts from adoption, and how such operations can help farmers diversity income and lower risk from adoption of such enterprises in the face of a changing climate. Research was disseminated during extension presentation; research, findings and methodologies were presented to students in both graduate and undergraduate classes; and research findings were published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at professional research conferences. Students (undergraduate and graduate) received training on statistical methods, interdisciplinary research, and bioenergy production.</li> <li>(Task 1-1) We analyzed data about adoption of conservation practices, specifically no tillage, cover crops, and use of manure, by farmers in Kansas. Using statistical techniques to analyze the data, we found geography and soil characteristics and management influence adoption of conservation practices. In addition, farm characteristics, such as farm size and integration of livestock influence conservation practice adoption, particularly for use of manure. There does exist some complementarity, or association, between adoption of the practices examined. That is, the likelihood of adopting a second conservation practice is higher, if you have already adopted of other practices examined. The research helped to meet the goal of better understanding factors that influence conservation of agricultural land and the potential to increase conservation across the agricultural landscape. In addition, it helped to better understand how we can better tailor outreach efforts to agricultural producers to help increase conservation efforts on-farm. Research was disseminated during extension presentation; research, findings and methodologies were presented to students in both graduate and undergraduate classes; and research findings were published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at professional research conferences. Students (undergraduate and graduate) received training on statistical methods, interdisciplinary research, and conservation on agricultural lands.</li> </ul>   Louisiana State University: <ul> <li>Penn finished advising an MS student (Ana Gutierrez Castillo) on research related to forest easement landowners’ willingness to accept for conservation thinning to improve forest health in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley in late 2020, with the publication occurring in early 2022.</li> <li>Penn advised data collection for a stated preference survey to understand forest landowner willingness to consult with forest consultants in order to pursue sustainable forest management practices (e.g., stream management, certification) in Spring 2021, which led to the completion of an MS student (Erika Largacha) in Fall 2021.</li> </ul>   Michigan State University: <ul> <li>Completed a stated preference study on the effects of fire on recreation visitation within a National Forest and completed another stated preference study of the effects of beach hazards on beach use on the Great Lakes.</li> </ul>   Mississippi State University: <ul> <li>Investigator Yun with Dr. Ayoung Kim has co-supervised an MS student (Jessica Browne) working on beach closure caused by Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) and E. Coli impacts on the local economy. Investigator Petrolia is on the thesis committee, and Browne will defend her thesis proposal on June 15th.</li> <li>Investigator Yun led the project building historical ecosystem services of water quality, habitat quality, carbon balance, crop yields, and bird diversity from various data sources as an output of USDA AFRI grant of the project “Sustainable Bioenergy Production and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services. The data will be released through a website built in a subdomain of Mississippi State University. With investigator Interis, the paper studying crop diversity impact on water quality is under process. Investigators Yun and Petrolia have begun discussions and paperwork about the conceptually consistent use of the modern portfolio analysis on conservation.</li> <li>Investigator Petrolia supervised an MS student (Kelvin Amon) who completed thesis work focused on the impacts of FEMA’s Community Rating System. Investigator Yun served on the thesis committee, and student defended his thesis on June 10, 2021.</li> <li>Investigators Petrolia and Yun completed a project focused on the (hedonic) valuation of wind mitigation techniques for coastal properties, funded by the Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium.</li> <li>Investigator Petrolia completed a project focused on an economic comparison of offshore versus nearshore sediment resources for coastal restoration, funded by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, in collaboration with researchers at Louisiana State University, the University of New Orleans, and the Water Institute of the Gulf. The project analyzed how sediment quality (grain size) impacts project performance and the economic tradeoffs between quality/performance and dredging/transport costs.</li> </ul>   Montana State University: <ul> <li>Academic publication: Bigelow, D.P., D.J. Lewis, and C. Mihiar. 2022. "A major shift in U.S. land development avoids significant losses in forest and agricultural land." Environmental Research Letters, 17 (2).</li> <li>Contribution to stakeholder report: USDA-NRCS, Montana Association of Land Trusts, and Heart of the Rockies Initiative. 2022. Working for Montana Agriculture: Economic Benefits of Conservation Easements for Montana’s Farms, Ranches, and Communities. Web link: <a href="https://montanalandtrusts.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Working-for-Montana-Agriculture-508.pdf">Working for Montana Agriculture (montanalandtrusts.org)</a>. <ul> <li>I wrote the two subsections appearing on page 13 of the report, as well as a more detailed technical summary appearing on the Montana Association of Land Trust website.</li> <li>The report was prepared in advance of Montana’s next state legislative session in order to inform policy discussions surrounding the tax treatment of land with conservation easements.</li> </ul> </li> <li>Co-advised M.S. thesis committee for Hannah Wing, who wrote a thesis on the linkages between Conservation Reserve program contract expiration and organic practice adoption. Hannah had her work accepted for a presentation at the 2022 Western Agricultural Economics Association Summer Conference in Santa Fe. We are currently in the process of formatting her thesis for a journal submission.</li> <li>Advised M.S. thesis committee for Conner McCollum, who wrote a thesis on the relationship between conservation easement adoption and on-farm investment.</li> <li>Completed working paper on farmland tax policy and submitted to academic journal. <ul> <li>Bigelow, D.P. and T. Kuethe. 2022. "The impact of preferential farmland taxation on local public finances." (revise and resubmit at Regional Science and Urban Economics).</li> </ul> </li> </ul>   Oregon State University: <ul> <li>Alix-Garcia and collaborators published a literature review about alleviating poverty in forests and a summary of published article prepared in advance of the COP26 meeting about how deforestation alerts can reduce emissions from land use change.</li> </ul>   University of Georgia: <ul> <li>Designed survey instrument to assess WTA coastal buyouts and WTP for “rent-backs” along the coast (Dare County, North Carolina and Worcester County, Maryland): Perry and Landry. “Willingness to Accept Buyout and Willingness to Pay for Rentbacks in the Context of Coastal Adaptation”</li> <li>Conducted analysis to assess the impact of hurricanes on NFIP market penetration in Georgia (which is generally considered a coastal “safe haven”): Grist, Landry, and “Flood Insurance Market Penetration in Georgia Before and After Hurricane Irma: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis”</li> <li>Directed research into identification of price gouging in the wake of hurricanes: Mensah, Landry, and Smith. “Efficient and Inefficient Pricing in the Wake of a Catastrophe”</li> <li>Directed research into barriers to trading in carbon markets: Yoon, Filipski, Landry, and Yoo. “Endowment Effects, Expectations, and Trading Behavior in Carbon Cap-and-Trade”</li> <li>Analyzed novel choice experiment data to assess WTP for rebuilding and WTA buyout post-storm: Landry, Keeler, and Scyphers. “Household Preferences for Post-storm Coastal Adaptation: An Application of Choice Experiments”</li> <li>Directed research into measurement of risk perceptions and assessing their role in structural models of decision making under risk:</li> <li>Turner and Landry. “The Nature of Coastal Hazard Risk Perceptions” Working Paper University of Georgia: Athens, GA</li> <li>Turner and Landry. “Accounting for Uncertainty in Decision Weights for Experimental Elicitation of Risk Preferences” SSRN: <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=3882694">https://ssrn.com/abstract=3882694</a></li> <li>Turner and Landry. “Structural Estimation of Decision Making under Natural Hazard Risk” SSRN: <a href="http://ssrn.com/abstract=3574835">com/abstract=3574835</a></li> </ul>   University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign: <ul> <li>Ando worked with Corey Lang to draft a paper using data on conservation and house values in Massachusetts to estimate how the capitalization benefits of land conservation accrue across racial groups.</li> <li>Ando worked with a team of coauthors from a wide range of states on a paper submitted to the Review of Environmental Economics and Policy about how management and valuation research can improve outcomes for endangered migratory species in the face of climate change</li> <li>Ando finalized a paper with Liqing Li on the impacts of bison restoration on local economies and submitted it to Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. It has been invited for revision and resubmission.</li> <li>Ando wrote and published a paper in Science Advances with a team of ecologists and economists to show the benefits that investments in nature could have through reducing the likelihood of future pandemics.</li> </ul>   University of Maine: <ul> <li>Over the reporting period, Maine researchers achieved progress on multiple active studies, and shared findings and updates with key stakeholders. We continued to study resource management behaviors and intentions of landowners, examining, among other factors, their participation in estate planning programs. We compared patterns in the use of wills and trusts using data collected in regions of Maine, Massachusetts, New York, and Vermont to learn more about differences in estate planning across the Northern Forest Region. Observations and findings from our work offer guidance to stakeholders and researchers engaging with landowners to achieve long-term resource management goals and to plan for and implement ownership transitions in the face of climate change and other shocks. We continue to improve empirical models designed to forecast landscape outcomes and simulate policy impacts. During the reporting period, Maine researchers published research on improving the designation of urban-rural gradients and land-scape scale policy simulations. Our findings suggest that commonly used urban-rural metrics are not capturing differences over time and space that matter for conservation and natural resource management. We initiated discussions with regional stakeholders to better understand the implications of these findings for future extension activities and policy analyses, including the sensitivity of policy simulations to assumptions about land-use gradients. We also contributed to ongoing projects studying the resource management decisions of Maine’s maple and honey producers and assessing the potential for small producers to scale up their enterprises.</li> </ul>   University of Rhode Island: <ul> <li>Analyzed survey data regarding resident preferences for belonging in a multi-state greenhouse gas mitigation program. We hypothesized that status quo bias would impact policy preferences and results confirmed that. Article was published in Environmental Research Letters. </li> </ul>   Virginia Tech University: <ul> <li>Coastal flood risk: Moeltner continued work on Bayesian matching estimators for housing markets, with application to flood risk in New England. The main objective for this research is to determine the optimal number of matched control observations for each treated property, along with other matching parameters. This past year Moeltner expanded my model diagnostics to also include distance statistics, balance statistics, and regression adjustment effects. Moeltner continued to run and compare a variety of different specifications.</li> </ul>   University of Wyoming: <ul> <li>Project: 2019 “The Comprehensive Survey of Snowmobile and Off-Road Recreational Vehicle (ORV) Use Trends and Economic Impacts of the Wyoming State Trails System.” Wyoming Dept. of Commerce, Division of State Parks and Historic Sites, Cheyenne Wyoming, $114,000 PI: C. T. Bastian, Co-PIs: R.H. Coupal, A.M. Nagler, and D.T. Taylor) (Project Awarded Funding Nov. 2019). Duration Jan. 2020- Dec. 2022. <ul> <li>Milestones: Survey research completed regarding 2020-2021 snowmobile season recreational use, and survey research completed regarding 2021 ORV recreational use.</li> <li>Activities: Task 1.1 Preliminary analysis of snowmobile survey has been completed for the state trails report. A report regarding descriptive statistics of survey responses, trails usage, and economic impacts of snowmobiling in Wyoming was drafted. The snowmobile survey data will be used in an MS thesis project to be completed in 2023. </li> </ul> </li> </ul> <h2>Objective 2: Economic Valuation</h2>   Colorado State University: <ul> <li>Jesse Burkhardt is working with the Colorado Department of Parks and Wildlife (CPW) to estimate Colorado residents’ willingness to pay for wolf reintroduction. We are also evaluating preferences for wolf management practices. The results will be used by the CPW to design a wolf management plan and to inform a cost-benefit analysis.</li> <li>Jesse Burkhardt estimated the value of conformity in landscape choices using a hedonic model.</li> <li>Manning completed a project with w4133 member, Amy Ando, to value the loss of bats to agricultural producers in the US.</li> </ul>   Louisiana State University <ul> <li>Penn worked with Petrolia on comparing convenience and probability samples for the value of beach condition information among Gulf of Mexico beachgoers. Penn also published methodological work on increasing comprehension of discrete choice experiment instructions and hypothetical bias mitigation.</li> </ul>   Michigan State University <ul> <li>Developed a statewide water quality valuation model with spatially-explicit water quality models developed at multiple water shed scales from hydrologic unit codes of HUC 10 to HUC 4.</li> <li>Made progress on developing an integrated assessment model for non-point pollution control in Michigan linking on-farm economic decision making and behaviors to on and off-farm impacts to assess benefits and costs of policies to address agricultural non-point source pollution in freshwaters including inland lakes and streams and the Great Lakes.</li> </ul>   Mississippi State University: <ul> <li>Investigators Interis and Yun have explored methods of combining observations of both discrete and marginal willingness to pay values in benefits transfer analysis in order to increase benefit transfer validity. This work will be presented at the 2022 annual meeting of the Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association.</li> </ul>   Oregon State University: <ul> <li>Alix-Garcia and collaborators published a paper testing the validity of indirect surveying as a method to collect household data. They compare household and informant reports of assets, develop poverty indices from both, test their performance as regression covariates, and examine errors in reporting and targeting resulting from using indirectly reported variables. Informant-based targeting indices are highly correlated with household measures and can be reasonable substitutes for self-reported indices in simple regressions. They can also be used to assign a simulated anti-poverty program with similar error rates to related methods. In their setting, eliminating direct household surveys would have reduced survey costs by 50%.</li> <li>Kling, Dundas and interdisciplinary collaborators published a paper using a choice experiment to examine public preferences for coastal dune ecosystem restoration in the US Pacific Northwest, a public good whose natural state is now rare. Respondents are asked to choose among hypothetical projects that vary by project size, restoration quality, recreation access, flooding risk, and cost. Restoration quality is defined as closeness to the natural ecosystem. We find that increasing restoration quality results in significantly higher welfare gains than increasing the size of restoration area. Maintaining recreation access is preferred, and programs with recreation restrictions yield positive willingness-to-pay only if accompanied by the highest restoration quality.</li> <li>Kling and Daniel K. Lew (NOAA Fisheries) co-supervised Russel Dame's (OSU Ph.D. student) research on Alaskan recreational angler behavior. They develop a model of angler site choice that allows for the prediction of days spent on site in addition to site choice. This model allows for more comprehensive welfare measures associated with harvest rates. The model can also predict recreational harvest mortality, which is a key metric for fisheries management for halibut and salmon species. Dame will present this research at the upcoming International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET) meeting in Spain.</li> </ul>   University of Georgia: <ul> <li>Launched survey to assess novel application of “consequentialism” in valuing private goods: Landry, Schaffer, Roy, and Campbell. “Willingness to Pay for Local Herbs: Combatting Hypothetical Bias with a New Variant of Consequentiality”</li> <li>Directed research into the effects of dam removal on riverine property values: Krasovskaia, Landry, Lewis, and Filipski. “Hedonic Analysis of Dam Removal: Evidence from Matching Methods in Maine, USA”</li> </ul>   University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign: <ul> <li>Ando finalized and submitted a paper with Liqing Li on the influence of early childhood experience on the values people place on grassland restoration.</li> <li>Ando worked with graduate student Fred Nyanzu and University of Rhode Island colleague Corey Lang to write and focus group the survey for a paper that estimates the values people place on local food and peri-urban conservation of natural and farmland areas.</li> <li>Ando submitted, revised, and resubmitted a paper to Landscape and Urban Planning with Oregon co-authors including Sahan Dissanayake and Noelwah Netusil on the values people place on different features of green roof installations in urban areas.</li> <li>Ando did the data analysis with Kaylee Wells, Sahan Dissanayake, and partners at the USDA for a paper on the values of grassland restoration projects in the tallgrass prairie region. They have also drafted a survey to estimate the benefits of landscape level changes in grassland prevalence across the entire U.S.</li> <li>Ando revised and resubmitted a paper with Dale Manning to the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists estimating the losses to the agricultural sector from reduced bat populations caused by White-Nose Syndrome.</li> <li>Ando worked with a team of coauthors including W4133 partners from Colorado and Mississippi on a paper submitted to the Review of Environmental Economics and Policy showing how methods commonly used in environmental economics – including non-market valuation techniques – can support policies and management actions that perpetuate racial inequity in access to environmental quality.</li> <li>Ando gave several presentations about research related to this objective: <ul> <li>August 2021. “Critical variation in preferences for environmental goods.” Invited keynote talk, 27th Ulvön Conference on Environmental Economics (virtual), Sweden.</li> <li>July 2021. “Distributional issues in environmental valuation findings and practice.” LEEPout seminar series; Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute; University of Exeter (virtual), UK.</li> <li>April 2021. “Early Exposure to Nature and WTP for Conservation.” L. Li and A. Ando. Dept. of Agricultural Resource and Economics, University of California Berkeley.</li> </ul> </li> </ul>   University of Maine: <ul> <li>Changing recreation behaviors during COVID-19 have sparked considerable interest in improving documentation and analysis of recreation visits and economic valuation of changing recreation opportunities. Working with regional stakeholders, we made progress on two research projects during the reporting period. In collaboration with the Land Trust Alliance, Maine researchers prepared a review of recent literature that used cell-phone and/or social media data to assess recreation visitation and, in some instances, model recreation demand. We shared the results with the Land Trust Alliance and worked together to summarize the pros and cons of using such data resources for different types of land trusts and valuation work. In addition, Maine researchers are collaborating with state and regional trail organizations to pilot the use of satellite/cell-phone based data streams to document trail use in different recreational settings. We are comparing and contrasting counts based on survey and in-place counters with results based on satellite/cell phone data streams. As we continue to make progress on this research, we will support the development of improved recreation demand valuation methods, and also call attention to the use of and services provided by diverse trail systems and park lands in Maine and beyond.</li> </ul>   University of Rhode Island: <ul> <li>Analyzed exit poll and aggregate voting data to assess bias stemming from use of aggregate data. Due to voter selection and omitted spatial variables, using aggregate data to estimate preferences leads to biased results. Article was published in Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. </li> <li>Analyzed how implicit value of open space varies across cities. We used the hedonic price method and data from over 200 MSAs in the Eastern United States and estimate MSA-specific valuation. We then examine variation in MWTP and city-level determinants. Valuation is largely local – relatively large changes in income or existing conservation lead to modest changes in MWTP – suggesting validity of benefit transfer across regions. However, geographic features that naturally limit development do correlate with MWTP. As a result, we examine geographic features as instrumental variables, and find that on average steep slope and water/wetlands yield valuation coefficients of opposite sign, consistent with a LATE interpretation. Article was published in Land Economics. </li> </ul>   Virginia Tech University: <ul> <li>Bayesian Meta-Regression: During the 2020/2021 reporting period, I continued work on a novel Bayesian Locally-Weighted Meta-Regression (BLWRMRM) approach to value water quality improvements as a result of USDA conservation efforts on agricultural lands. This analytical framework produces more accurate benefit transfer estimates than typical one-model-fits-all MRM strategies. I applied the model to an existing (and growing) meta-data set on willingness-to-pay (WTP) for water quality improvements from a variety of source studies. I developed programming code to test model performance and generate locally-weighted benefit transfer (BT) predictions for the monetary value of water quality improvements. I found that the new framework performs better in all statistical aspects considered than conventional meta-regression and BT based on a single model.</li> <li>Free-form choice experiments: Building on results from the preceding research year, I developed models that also include water quality information based on survey respondents' browsing through the interactive maps offered in our online questionnaire. This led to important discoveries, most notably that not only water quality near a respondent's home matters, but also quality in potentially distant areas that matter to the household for various reasons. If this factor is ignored, resulting willingness-to-pay estimates will be biased downwards.</li> </ul>     <h2>Objective 3: Integrated Policy and Decision-Making</h2>   Colorado State University: <ul> <li>Jesse Burkhardt is working with Lynker Technologies to estimate the causes and consequences of water shortages in Colorado.</li> </ul>   Mississippi State University: <ul> <li>Investigator Yun as a co-PI awarded the USDA-NIFA AFRI grant for the project, “Dynamic Portfolio of Spatial and Temporal Forest-Based Biodiversity Conservation.” The lead PI of the grant is a W4133 investigator, Dr. Sunghoon Cho at University of Tennessee, Knoxville.</li> <li>Investigator Petrolia supervised an MS student (Freedom Enyetornye) working on valuation of oyster reef restoration across the Gulf Coast. Investigator Yun is on the thesis committee, and student will present his thesis proposal on June 30, 2022.</li> <li>Investigator Petrolia supervised an MS student (Barbara Okai) working on an application of benefits transfer to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of coastal restoration projects in Alabama and Mississippi. Investigators Interis and Yun are on the thesis committee, and student will present her thesis proposal on June 10, 2022.</li> <li>Investigator Petrolia completed a project quantifying and monetizing ecosystem services provided by four oyster habitats: bottom oyster beds, off-bottom oyster farms, non-harvested bottom reefs, and living shorelines.  A spreadsheet-based tool was constructed for resource managers to calculate estimates.</li> <li>Investigators Petrolia and Yun continued work on a project focused on valuation of oyster reef restoration in the Gulf Coast, funded by NOAA Restore Science.</li> </ul>   Montana State University: <ul> <li>Completed working paper on Ricardian climate impact estimation and submitted to academic journal. <ul> <li>Bigelow, D.P. and M. Jodlowski. 2022. "Self-reporting and aggregation bias in Ricardian climate impacts: Evidence from observed farmland sales." (under review at American Journal of Agricultural Economics).</li> </ul> </li> </ul>   Oregon State University: <ul> <li>Lewis, Kling, Dundas and a collaborator at NOAA Fisheries (D. K. Lew) published a paper developed a new empirical approach combining a choice experiment and a structural model to estimate two key parameters in a dynamic willingness-to-pay function for threated species abundance. The method enables estimation of the current marginal benefit of increases in threatened species abundance and the rate implicitly used to discount future marginal benefits and is demonstrated with an application to a threatened Coho salmon along the Oregon coast.</li> </ul>   University of Maine <ul> <li>Maine researchers contributed to multiple interdisciplinary research projects focused on improving land, forest, and water resource management as well as community economic development through integrated policy and decision-making. Working with colleagues from Ohio, Connecticut, and Virginia, Maine researchers drafted multiple manuscripts summarizing our research on the vulnerability and resilience of US rural forested communities and the roles of ecosystem services in these changing communities. Maine researchers also made progress in our interdisciplinary research of municipal capacity to respond to natural hazards and other crises. During the reporting period, Maine researchers published one manuscript assessing the response of 100 Maine municipalities to the COVID-19 pandemic. Working collaboratively with external partners, including state agency, regional planning and economic development, and non-profit organizations, Maine researchers hope to learn from the experiences of municipalities during the pandemic to improve future municipal programs and decision-support tools aimed at helping communities adapt to climate change and other shocks. Lastly, Maine researchers linked project research to ongoing integrated policy and decision-making coursework and research at the University of Maine by participating in two NSF-funded interdisciplinary and convergent graduate student training programs (One Health and System Approaches for Understanding and Navigating the New Arctic) and two University of Maine System funded interdisciplinary and engaged undergraduate research projects.</li> </ul>   University of Tennessee <ul> <li>The objective of the research is to identify optimal conservation investment allocations for target regions and species within those regions under uncertain conditions. We develop a two-step approach using modern portfolio theory (MPT) to estimate percentages of conservation investment (referred to as ‘portfolio weights’) for counties and taxonomic groups in the central and southern Appalachian region under climate and market uncertainties.</li> </ul>   University of Wyoming: <ul> <li>Task 3.2 Economic Assessment of Nonpoint Source Pollution Management in the Tongue River Basin, WY. Local BMPs matched with WTP levels derived from meta-analysis. Balint, K., R. Coupal, K. Hansen, G. Paige and D. McLeod. Ongoing. <ul> <li>Milestones: Task 3.2 Completion of Balint’s MS Thesis (2019) “Economic Assessment of Nonpoint Source Pollution Management in the Tongue River Basin, WY.” Presentation at W4133 February 2020 Athens, GA Manuscript in process at present.</li> </ul> </li> </ul>

Publications

<h1>Publications (60 total)</h1> <h2>Objective 1: Resource Management (35)</h2> <ol> <li>Adhikari, R.K., R.K. Grala, D.R. Petrolia, S.C. Grado, D.L. Grebner.   "Landowner concerns related to availability of ecosystem services and environmental issues in the southern United States."  Ecosystem Services 49(June): 101283.</li> <li>Adhikari, R., R. Grala, S. Grado, D. Grebner, D.R. Petrolia. “Landowner Satisfaction with Conservation Programs in the Southern United States.”  Sustainability 14(9): 5513.</li> <li>Adhikari, R., R. Grala, D.R. Petrolia, S. Grado, D. Grebner, and A. Shrestha.   "Landowner Willingness to Accept Monetary Compensation for Managing Forests for Ecosystem Services in the Southern United States."  Forest Science 68(2): 128-44.</li> <li>Ando, A.S. and C. Reeser. 2021. “Homeowner willingness to pay for a pre-flood buyout agreement.” Land Economics <a href="http://le.uwpress.org/content/early/2022/01/20/le.98.4.052721-0056.full.pdf">uwpress.org/content/early/2022/01/20/le.98.4.052721-0056.full.pdf</a></li> <li>Bernstein, A., T. Loch-Temzelides, A. Ando, P. Daszak, M. Vale, B. Li, C. Chapman, M. Kinnaird, K. Nowak, H. Li, J. Busch, M. Castro, C. Zambrana-Torrelio, L. Xiao, L. Kaufman, S. Pimm, L. Hannah, A. P. Dobson. “The scale of justified investments in primary pandemic prevention.” Science Advances.</li> <li>Bigelow, D.P., D.J. Lewis, and C. Mihiar. 2022. "A major shift in U.S. land development avoids significant losses in forest and agricultural land." Environmental Research Letters, 17 (2).</li> <li>Caffey, R.H., D.R. Petrolia, I. Georgiou, M. Miner, H. Wang, and B. Kime. "The economics of sediment quality on barrier shoreline restoration."  Revise & resubmit.</li> <li>Canales E., J.S. Bergtold and A. Featherstone. 2021. Farm efficiency and productivity growth: The effect of commodity prices. Journal of Applied Farm Economics 4(1): DOI: 10.7771/2331-9151.1053</li> <li>Chen, Y., Lewis, D.J., and B. Weber. 2021. “Amenities and skill sorting: A case study of land conservation policy.” The Annals of Regional Science, 67: 649-669. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-021-01060-3">org/10.1007/s00168-021-01060-3</a>.</li> <li>Goeb, J., and F. Lupi, 2021, Showing pesticides’ true colors: The effects of a farmer-to-farmer training on pesticide knowledge, Journal of Environmental Management. 279: 111821.</li> <li>Gutierrez A, Penn J, Tanger S, and M Blazier. 2022. “Conservation Easement Landowners’ Willingness to Accept for Forest Thinning.” Forest Policy & Economics. 135: 102627.</li> <li>Hanson, E., A. Nagler, J. Ritten, B.S. Rashford.   Farm-level Economics of Bioenergy in the Upper Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers 2022: 16-30.</li> <li>Hashida, Y., and D.J. Lewis. 2022. “Estimating welfare impacts of climate change using discrete-choice models of land management: An application to western U.S. forestry.” Resource and Energy Economics, 68: 101295. org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101295</li> <li>Hrozencik, Aaron, Dale T. Manning, Jordan F. Suter, Christopher Goemans (2021). Impacts of Block-Rate Energy Pricing on Groundwater Demand in Irrigated Agriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.</li> <li>Jensen, A. J., S. J. Dundas, and J. T. Peterson. 2022. Phenomenological and Mechanistic Modeling of Recreational Angling Behavior Using Creel Data. Fisheries Research 249: 106235. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2022.106235">1016/j.fishres.2022.106235</a></li> <li>Jones Ritten, C., A. Nagler, K.M. Hansen, D.E. Bennett, and B.S. Rashford.   Incorporating Landowner Preferences into Successful Migratory Species Conservation Policy.  Western Economics Forum 21(1): 83-94.</li> <li>Kaminski, A., Bauer, D.M., Bell, K.P. et al. Using landscape metrics to characterize towns along an urban-rural gradient. Landscape Ecology 36, 2937–2956 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01287-7</li> <li>Laird, H., C. Landry, S. Shonkwiler, and D.R. Petrolia.   "Riders on the Storm: Hurricane Risk and Coastal Insurance and Mitigation Decisions."  Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics 8(1): Article 3.</li> <li>Landry, C.E., D. Turner, and D.R. Petrolia.   "Flood Insurance Market Penetration and Expectations of Disaster Assistance."  Environmental & Resource Economics 79: 357-86.</li> <li>LandryE., S. Anderson, E. Krasovskaia, and D. Turner. 2021. “Willingness to Pay for Multi-Peril Hazard Insurance” Land Economics (Nov) 97(4). <a href="doi:10.3368/le.97.4.072820-0115R1">doi:10.3368/le.97.4.072820-0115R1</a></li> <li>Logan, L.H., R.S. Gupta, A.W. Ando, C. Suski, A.S. Stillwell. 2021. “Quantifying tradeoffs between electricity generation and fish populations via population habitat duration curves.” Ecological Modelling 440: 109373. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109373">org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109373</a></li> <li>Lupi, F., R. von Haefen and L. Cheng. 2021. “Distributional effects of entry fees and taxation for financing public beaches in Michigan.” Land Economics.</li> <li>Mihiar, C., and D.J. Lewis. 2021. "Climate, adaptation, and the value of forestland: A national Ricardian analysis of the United States." Land Economics, 91(4): 911-932. org/10.3368/le.97.4.011620-0004R1.</li> <li>Moffette, F, J. Alix-Garcia, K. Shea, A.H. Pickens. 2021. Freely available deforestation alerts can reduce emissions from land-use change. Nature Climate Change 11(11): 913-14.</li> <li>McCollum, C.J., S.M. Ramsey, J.S. Bergtold and G. Andrango. 2021. Estimating the supply of oilseed acreage for sustainable aviation fuel production: taking account of farmers' willingness to adopt. Energy, Sustainability and Society 11:33.</li> <li>Nagler, A., J. Bannon, and B.S. Rashford.   Landowner and Economic Benefits from Migration Corridor Designation in Wyoming.  UW Extension Bulletin, B-1374.2, August 2021.</li> <li>Petrolia, D. R., S. G. Ishee, S. D. Yun, J. R. Cummings, and J. Maples, 2022, “Do Wind Hazard Mitigation Programs Affect Home Sales Values?” Journal of Real Estate Research, forthcoming.</li> <li>Reem H., P. Newton, M. Ihalainen, A. Agrawal, J. Alix-Garcia, S. E. Castle, J. T. Erbaugh, M. Gabay, K. Hughes, S. Mawutor, P. Pacheco, G. Schoneveld, J.A. Timko. 2021. Levers for alleviating poverty in forest. Forest Policy and Economics 132: 102589</li> <li>Rouhi Rad, M., D.T. Manning, J.F. Suter, C. Goemans (2021). Policy Leakage or Policy Benefit? Spatial Spillovers from Conservation Policies in Common Property Resources.  Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.</li> <li>Sheng, G., J.S. Bergtold and E. Yeager. 2021. Assessing the joint adoption and complementarity between in-field conservation practices of Kansas farmers. Agricultural and Food Economics 9: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-021-00201-8">org/10.1186/s40100-021-00201-8</a> .</li> <li>Sampson G.S., A. Al-Sudani and J.S. Bergtold. 2021. Local irrigation response to ethanol expansion in the High Plains Aquifer. Resource and Energy Economics 66: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101249">org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101249</a>.</li> <li>Sloggy, M., J. Suter, M. Rouhi Rad, D.T. Manning, and C. Goemans (2021). Changing climate, changing minds? The effects of natural disasters on public perceptions of climate change.  Climatic Change.</li> <li>Smith D., Caffey R., S. Midway, and J. Penn. 2022. “Economic values of potential regulation changes for the declining Southern Flounder fishery in Louisiana.” Marine and Coastal Fisheries. 14(2): e10195.</li> <li>Suter, J., M. Rouhi Rad, D. Manning, C. Goemans, and M. Sanderson (2021). Groundwater Depletion, Climate, and the Incremental Value of Groundwater. Resource and Energy Economics.</li> <li>von Haefen, R., and F. Lupi, 2021, How does congestion affect the evaluation of recreational gate fees? An application to Gulf Coast Beaches. Land Economics.</li> </ol>   <h2>Objective 2: Economic Valuation (15)</h2> <ol> <li>Alix-Garcia, K. RE Sims, and L. Costica. 2021. Better to be indirect? Testing the accuracy and cost-savings of indirect surveys. World Development 142: 105419</li> <li>Barrett, L.T., S.J. Theuerkauf, J.M. Rose, H.K. Alleway, S.B. Bricker, M. Parker, D.R. Petrolia, and R.C. Jones.   "Sustainable growth of non-fed aquaculture will generate valuable ecosystem benefits."  Ecosystem Services 53(February):  101396.</li> <li>Blanchette, A., Lang, C., & VanCeylon, J. (2021). Variation in Valuation: Open Space and Geography. Land Economics, 011720-0005R.</li> <li>Burkhardt, J., N. W. Chan, B. Bollinger, and K. Gillingham. "What is the value of conformity? Evidence from home landscaping and water conservation."  J. Agric. Econ(2021).</li> <li>Landry C.E., Turner, D., and T. Allen. 2021. “Hedonic Property Prices and Coastal Beach Width” Applied Economic Policy & Perspectives. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13197">org/10.1002/aepp.13197</a></li> <li>Lang, C., & Pearson-Merkowitz, S. (2022). Aggregate data yield biased estimates of voter preferences. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 111, 102604.</li> <li>Lang, C., Weir, M., & Pearson-Merkowitz, S. (2021). Status quo bias and public policy: evidence in the context of carbon mitigation. Environmental Research Letters, 16(5), 054076.</li> <li>Manning, D. and A. Ando. Ecosystem Services and Agricultural Land Rental Markets: The Producer Cost of Bat Population Crashes. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (forthcoming).</li> <li>Nguyen, T., D. M. Kling, S. J. Dundas, D. Hacker, D. K. Lew, P. Ruggiero, and K. Roy. Forthcoming. Quality over Quantity: Non-market Values of Restoring Coastal Dunes in the US Pacific Northwest. Land Economics. doi: <a href="http://le.uwpress.org/content/early/2022/05/17/le.040721-0036R.abstract">10.3368/le.040721-0036R</a></li> <li>Penn J. and W Hu. 2021. “Videos Improve Attention and Cheap Talk in Online Surveys.” Frontiers in Economics in China. 16(2): 347-376.</li> <li>Penn, J., D.R. Petrolia, J.M. Fannin. "Comparing Representative and Convenience Samples for Values of Beach Condition Information."  Working paper.</li> <li>Petrolia, D.R., D. Guignet, J.C. Whitehead, C. Kent, K. Amon, and C. Caulder.   "Nonmarket Valuation in the Environmental Protection Agency's Regulatory Process."  Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy 43(3): 952-69.</li> <li>Dahal, R.P., R.K. Grala, S. Gordon, I.A. Munn, and D.R. Petrolia. 2021.  "Geospatial Heterogeneity in Monetary Value of Proximity to Waterfront Ecosystem Services in the Gulf of Mexico."  Water 13(17): 2401.</li> <li>Yun, S. D. and B. M. Gramig, 2022, “Spatial Panel Models of Crop Yield Response to Weather: Econometric Specification Strategies and Prediction Performance,” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 54(1): 53-71.</li> <li>Yun, S. D. and A. Kim, 2021, “Economic Impact of Natural Disasters: A Myth or Mismeasurement?” Applied Economics Letters, 29(10): 861-866.</li> </ol>   <h2>Objective 3: Integrated Policy and Decision-Making (10)</h2> <ol> <li>Blachly B, Ferreira S, Herman B, Grace Ingham A, Landry C.E. and A.J. Perry. 2021. Developing an Inventory of US Army Corps of Engineers’ Nature-based Infrastructure Projects. DOER Technical Notes Collection (DOER-EWN-XX), U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS. <a href="http://www.doer.el.erdc.dren.mil/">doer.el.erdc.dren.mil</a>.</li> <li>Berenter, J., Morrison, I., and Mueller, J.M. (2021). “Valuing user preferences for geospatial fire monitoring in Guatemala.” 13:12077.</li> <li>Jennings, K.S., A.N. Wlostowski, R.E. Bash, J. Burkhardt, C.W. Wobus, and G. Aggett. "Data availability and sector‐specific frameworks restrict drought impact quantification in the Intermountain West." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water(2022): e1586.</li> <li>Kang, N., C. Sims, and S. Cho. 2022. “Spatial and taxonomic diversification for conservation investment under uncertainty.” Environmental Conservation, 1-8. doi:10.1017/S0376892922000194.</li> <li>Levesque, V.R., Johnson, E.S., and K.P. Bell. 2021. Municipal Capacity to Respond to COVID-19: Implications for Improving Community Resilience in Maine. Maine Policy Review2 (2021): 62 -71, <a href="https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mpr/vol30/iss2/8">digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mpr/vol30/iss2/8</a>.</li> <li>Lewis, D. J., D. M. Kling, S. J. Dundas, and D. K. Lew. 2022. Estimating the Value of Threatened Species Abundance Dynamics. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 113: 102639. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102639">1016/j.jeem.2022.102639</a></li> <li>Mueller, J.M., Loomis, J.B., Richardson, L., and Fitch, R.A. (2021) “Valuing impacts of proximity to Saguaro National Park on house prices.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13196">org/10.1002/aepp.13196</a></li> <li>Petrolia, D.R., W.C. Walton, and J. Cebrian.   "Oyster Economics:  Simulated Costs, Market Returns, and Nonmarket Ecosystem Benefits of Harvested and Non-Harvested Reefs, Off-Bottom Aquaculture, and Living Shorelines." Marine Resource Economics 37(3).</li> <li>Shaw, G. R., and S. J. Dundas. 2021. Socio-Economic Impacts of the Southern Flow Corridor Restoration Project: Tillamook Bay, Oregon. Garibaldi, OR: Tillamook Estuaries Partnership. 47 pp. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.25923/w8c8-v180">25923/w8c8-v180</a></li> <li>Wlostowski, A.N., Jennings, K.S., Bash, R.E., Burkhardt, J., Wobus, C.W. and Aggett, G., (2021). Dry landscapes and parched economies: A review of how drought impacts nonagricultural socioeconomic sectors in the US Intermountain West. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews (WIRES): Water, p.e1571.</li> </ol>   <h1>2022 Meeting Abstracts</h1>   <h2>SESSION 1: Stated Preference Methods</h2>   Title:               Controlling for attribute non-attendance using self-reported attribute non-attendance and response time information Authors:         Jake Kennedy, Sahan Dissanayake, Randy Bluffstone W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2.1) Presenter:      Jake Kennedy Email:             <a href="mailto:jakekennedy@pdx.edu">jakekennedy@pdx.edu</a> Abstract:        The use of choice experiment surveys to elicit preferences and values for non-market goods and policies has increased significantly in the last decade. At the same time there is growing concern of the presence of attribute non-attendance (ANA), the occurrence where a respondent ignores one or more attributes. Previous studies have cast doubt on the trustworthiness of self-reported attendance information and shown improved model fit using inferred attribute non-attendance methodologies. However, existing literature has also shown a correlation between response time and cognitive effort as well as response time and self-reported attendance. We further contribute to this literature first by looking at the connection between response time and self-reported attendance information and second by exploring how that information can be jointly used to improve estimation in choice experiments. Our application is from an online survey conducted in the summer of 2020 concerning park management strategies for Forest Park, a public park located in Portland, Oregon. The data set consists of 822 responses from a choice experiment consisting of six attributes including the cost attribute and thirty-six unique choice tasks that were divided into six unique surveys. From our exploration of the literature, this study also contributes the first evidence of the impact of attribute non-attendance from the context of recreational preferences for urban greenspace. Initial exploration of the data shows pervasive ANA ranging from 35.9-50.7% of responses ‘at least sometimes’ not attending to an attribute with a particularly concerning 32.2% of responses ignoring the cost attribute. Finally, preliminary results show statistically significant but mixed directional effects on response time from self-reported attendance information per attribute prompting further exploration.   Title:               Assessing Hypothetical Bias in Nudging: Willingness to Pay for Consultation towards Improved Forest Management Authors:         Sapana Bastola, Jerrod Penn, Michael Blazier W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (Task 2-1) Presenter:      Jerrod Penn Email:             <a href="mailto:jpenn@agcenter.lsu.edu">jpenn@agcenter.lsu.edu</a> Abstract:            Researchers have applied the principles from behavioral economics and psychology to nudge people towards a desired outcome. Stated Preference studies have also begun to adopt nudges, commonly framed as informational treatments, significantly altering willingness to pay in a wide array of settings. However, the observed effect of information treatments in SP studies may be subject to hypothetical bias such that the real impact is potentially smaller. To explore this issue, we examine to what extent the effect of nudge information treatments in Stated Preference studies is overstated due to hypothetical bias by eliciting both hypothetical and real WTP. We examine the presence of HB for “Social Norm” and “Financial Incentives” information. These represent two different, but commonly implemented information nudges. This occurs in the context of understanding family forest landowners’ maximum WTP to receive a consultation with a private forest consultant, an important step towards obtaining a forest management plan and forest certification. While family forest landowners own more than 275 million acres of forestland in the US, adoption of among these de facto forest managers of sustainable forest management practices remains extremely low. Each participant was randomly assigned to one of three treatments: 1) Social Norm 2) Financial Incentive, and 3) Control. In Social Norm, landowners received information about the number of certified farms and certified acres of forestland specific to their county as well as the same information in the three leading counties in their state. In Financial Incentive, landowners are told about three financial incentives of working with a private industry forester. Landowners in Control did not receive either of the information nudges. We used a payment card approach to elicit landowners’ WTP to receive consultation in both elicitation settings and utilized a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) auction mechanism in the real setting. The survey was distributed via mail in Spring 2021 to 4507 family forest landowners with property in four Louisiana parishes and four Arkansas counties with 10-600 acres of land. We received 578 responses from landowners, yielding a response rate of 14.1% and roughly equal participation in the three treatments. Our preliminary results show that hypothetical WTP is higher than real WTP indicating the presence of hypothetical bias. Compared to control, Social Norm significantly increases WTP for consultation. However, the effect of Social Norm information is significantly higher in real elicitation than in hypothetical elicitation. Financial Incentive has no significant effect on WTP and there is no significant difference in the effect of Financial Incentive on hypothetical and real WTP.   Title:   Comparing Water Quality Valuation Across Probability and Non-Probability Samples      Authors: Frank Lupi  W4133 obj.:   Task 1-1 & Task 2-1 Presenter: Frank Lupi                       Email: <a href="mailto:lupi@msu.edu">lupi@msu.edu</a>              Abstract: Choosing a sample is a critical step in valuation survey design. While probability-based sampling is traditionally preferred for representing the general population, non-probability online samples offer faster implementation and lower costs. Non-probability online samples are criticized for potential biases that may not be mitigated by balancing samples to “represent” population demographics (Baker et al. 2013). For stated preference (SP) valuation, a superb review of best practices recommends probability-based sampling but also notes several SP studies with mixed findings (Johnston et al. 2017). More recently, some popular non-probability sample sources have undergone a “crisis” in response quality (Chmielewski and Kucker 2020). This paper compares SP results between an addressed-based probability sample and two non-probability samples (Qualtrics and MTurk). Our SP survey was developed according to suggestions by Johnston et al. (2017). The probability sample is an address-based sample (ABS) of the general population from the USPS postal delivery file that was implemented in a push-to-web mail-invitation design. The survey received a 23% response rate yielding ~2,200 observations. The two non-probability online opt-in samples include 1,237 respondents from MTurk and 3,095 from Qualtrics. Amazon’s. Topically, the research compares values for freshwater ecosystem services in Michigan using referendum choice questions. We find that while the samples differ in some demographics, such as the relative youth of the MTurk respondents, across 95% of attitudinal variables the samples were substantively very similar. Most importantly though, the samples consistently differed in terms of key economic outcomes like total and marginal WTP for attribute changes.   Title: Text Analysis as a complementary approach to identifying protest responses Authors: Brian Vander Naald, S. Kolstoe     W4133 obj.: Task 2-1 Presenter: Brian Vander Naald         Email: brian.vandernaald@drake.edu           Abstract: The protection of at-risk species, prevention and mitigation of invasive species, and climate change are all topics that have the potential to trigger strong responses from respondents in stated choice surveys. Some strong responses may actually be biased (e.g., protest or warm glow) or suggest scenario rejection, traditionally all reasons for excluding responses from analysis. The current standard is to use purposeful questions to identify these responses. However, this strategy may be overlooking information from open-ended responses. Open-ended responses have traditionally been examined on a case-by-case basis, and it is unclear whether subjective researcher classification of such responses can be replicated consistently. We contribute to the conversation around classifying open-ended responses by using a machine learning algorithm and exploring how it performs.   Our data consists of 1030 observations from a 2020 binary choice DCE that elicits preferences for attributes of a hike (including cost, hike availability, invasive species risk, and types of birds encountered) in a unique intact tropical ecosystem. Under assumptions of the RUM, respondents from this representative sample choose the hike with attributes that maximize their utility. From these data, we calculate WTP estimates for the probabilities of encountering different birds, getting on the hike, and introducing an invasive species. We use a form of text analysis called sentiment analysis to identify and categorize the open-ended responses to the open-ended comments question at the end of the survey as positive, negative or neutral. Using latent class analysis, we explore whether classifying sentiments mechanically using sentiment analysis may be used as a complementary approach to identifying protest votes in a discrete choice experiment. To the extent it helps refine WTP estimates, this approach has the potential to be useful to policymakers.   <h2>SESSION 2: Water Quality</h2>   Title:   Spatial dimensions of water quality value in New England River networks  Authors: Robert J. Johnston, K. Moeltner, S. Peery, T. Ndebele, Z. Yao, S. Crema, W. M. Wollheim, E. Besedin W4133 obj.: Task 2-2            Presenter: Robert J. Johnston            Email: rjohnston@clarku.edu            Abstract: To provide insight into how spatial dimensions of water quality changes influence WTP, we integrated a water quality model with a novel map-based, interactive choice experiment architecture to estimate households’ WTP for water quality improvements over a river system. Among our hypotheses is that allowing people to interact with dynamic GIS maps in a choice experiment can provide detailed spatial information that improves the accuracy of WTP prediction, by identifying individualized areas where improvements might have high value to each respondent. We developed the approach to estimate values linked to realistic, predicted scenarios of water quality change flowing from a set of policy actions throughout a large river system. We estimated values for changes over a study domain covering approximately 95,800 miles of rivers and streams in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Each choice-experiment question paired a possible environmental policy scenario with a hypothetically binding household cost, compared to a “business as usual” (BAU) status-quo with no change in household cost. Scenarios illustrated both current conditions and prospective changes in three different water quality measures, representing: (a) safety for human use, (b) support for aquatic life and (c) a multi-metric indicator of overall water pollution. To represent these measures under (1) contemporary conditions, (2) the BAU, and (3) the policy scenario, the survey included nine individual water-quality maps. All maps had dynamic GIS zoom capability, enabling respondents to click a URL to voluntarily view conditions at any desired magnification and area. We developed a novel survey architecture to capture data on how respondents maneuvered through each of these maps prior to answering choice questions. The resulting map-interaction database provided information on all map extents viewed by each respondent, for each water quality map, and the length of time that each frame was viewed. We applied the map-interaction tracking data to infer locations where water quality might be salient to each respondent, based on the time spent viewing each map extent. The survey was implemented in May 2021 using a mixed-mode, address-based, push-to-web sample. The analysis draws from 1,292 respondents who engaged with maps. A discrete-choice, random-utility model was estimated in WTP-space using Bayesian model search and averaging. Results provide robust evidence that map interactions convey information related to choices and WTP estimates. WTP estimates are influenced by regionwide quality improvements and improvements surrounding each respondent’s home, as anticipated, but also in additional, individualized locations identifiable solely via each respondent’s dynamic map interactions. These spatial effects are pertinent solely for improvements to rivers at low baseline quality and vary over different water quality measures. These results show that the presented architecture for choice experiments—which captures data on how people interact with maps of water quality change—can reveal individualized areas wherein some types of change have high value, beyond effects related to distance-decay. The model allows these areas, and associated welfare effects, to be identified even if the reasons why these areas are highly valued by each household are not suspected in advance by researchers. Results suggest that spatial dimensions of WTP are more complex than is typically acknowledged in the literature and include components that cannot be identified via standard methods.             Title:   Empirical evaluation of non-point source pollution abatement – Is an improvement detectable?    Authors: Max Pohlman, K. Zipp       W4133 obj.:   Task 1-1 & Task 3-2 Presenter: Max Pohlman       Email: maxpohlman@psu.edu           Abstract: Nonpoint source pollution in waterbodies has been a longstanding issue in the United States. These pollutants are defined as detectable, but unable to be traced back to their source. One of the biggest causes of nonpoint source pollution is runoff from agriculture; rainwater flows over the land, picking up excess nutrients as it flows, before winding up in an adjacent body of water. While each source of pollution is likely small, the pollution flows through water networks and coalesces in larger bodies of water. In recent years, the most common policies to address nonpoint source water pollution subsidize the use of best management practices (BMPS): actions farmers can take to reduce nutrient runoff from their land. However, the evaluation of these policies has relied on predictive modeling, with no empirical studies, to our knowledge, estimating the effectiveness of BMPs on reducing nutrient runoff. This paper seeks to evaluate whether we can empirically detect the impact of BMPs on water quality. If we can, this could be a tremendous boon towards future policy. If there is no empirical relationship, we must wonder if investing into these kinds of policies is worth it. Can policies be classified as a success even if there’s no detectable change in water quality? If so, how does one define success? To our knowledge, we are the first to use spatially explicit riparian buffer location data to empirically estimate the impact of a BMP on water pollution at a large scale. We use geospatial techniques to calculate relative watersheds for each monitoring station, defined as the land area that feeds into each station. Over 25 years, we observe the installation of 7,106 buffers in Pennsylvania and connect them with 32,725 nitrogen readings from 1,685 water quality monitoring stations from the USGS and EPA. We construct a two-way fixed-effects (TWFE) model evaluating the changes in percent feasible buffer area on nitrogen levels. We use month x year and watershed as our temporal and spatial fixed effects, along with various climate, land use, and biological covariates. Recent research has shown that TWFE estimates often cannot be interpreted as causal due to treatment effect dynamics (de Chaisemartin and D’Haultfoeuille 2020, Goodman-Bacon 2021, Callaway and Sant’Anna 2021). Thus, we also used group-time average treatment effects (GTATE) (Callaway and Sant’Anna 2021) to overcome the shortcomings of the TWFE model. Our primary result from the TWFE model shows that Pennsylvania’s goal of having 95,000 acres of buffers planted by 2025 (a 50% increase in buffer acreage) would be associated with a 2% further decrease in detected nitrogen. Additionally, our GTATE estimator finds that the addition of buffers caused watersheds that received them to have 11% less nitrogen than watersheds that did not receive buffers. We discuss two major issues with interpreting these results – (1) the potential endogeneity of buffer location and (2) the correlation between buffers and other unobserved conservation practices.     Title: Locally-weighted meta-regression and benefit transfer Authors: Klaus Moeltner, R. Puri, R. J. Johnston, E. Besedin, J. A. Balukas, A. Le, I. Morin        W4133 obj.: Task 1-1, Task 2-3 & Task 3-1 Presenter: Klaus Moeltner    Email: moeltner@vt.edu        Abstract: We propose a locally-weighted regression approach to analyze meta-data and generate benefit transfer predictions in an environmental valuation context. We introduce the concept of locally-weighted meta-regression, provide econometric underpinnings, and discuss the construction of weight functions. We illustrate the use of cross-validation to decide between weight functions and show how this framework can be applied in a benefit transfer setting. For our application on willingness-to-pay for water quality improvements we find that the proposed approach brings substantial gains in predictive accuracy in a leave-one-out setting, and vast improvements in predictive efficiency for benefit transfer. These gains are relatively robust to the choice of weight function, suggesting strong potential of this method to generalize to other meta-regression contexts.           Title: Climate benefits of nutrient management                    Authors: Bryan Parthum, C. Moore, E. Kopits, J. Beaulieu W4133 obj.: Task 1-1 & Task 1-4 Presenter: Bryan Parthum     Email: Parthum.Bryan@epa.gov                                           Abstract:  N/A        <h2>SESSION 3: Valuation of Grasslands & Wilderness</h2>   Title: The use value of grasslands in the Tallgrass Prairie Region of the United States                  Authors: Kaylee Wells          W4133 obj.: Task 1-1, Task 1-3 & Task 2-1 Presenter: Kaylee Wells        Email: kkwells2@illinois.edu            Abstract: Much is known about how grasslands (i.e., prairies) provide benefits to society through ecosystem services like carbon sequestration, erosion control, and recreational opportunities (Zhao, Liu and Wu 2020; Chang et al. 2021). Much less is known about the value of these benefits to society because they are largely non-market in nature (Gascoigne et al. 2011). This research is the first to apply the travel cost method to the problem of estimating the value of and demand for grassland recreation. Using data on year-round trips made by Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota residents to grasslands in the Tallgrass Prairie Region of the United States I estimate trip count models and the use (or recreational) value of these sites. I estimate zero-inflated negative binomial and Poisson hurdle models, which also provide insight into the demographics most likely to visit a grassland for recreation. Grasslands in Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota are of particular interest because it is estimated that nearly all the native tallgrass prairie in these three states has been converted by agriculture or development (Samson and Knopf 1994). As such, this research could inform the administration of many national public and private programs concerned with preserving, protecting, and restoring grasslands like the USDA’s Conservation Reserve Program and the work of the Nature Conservancy. It could also provide useful information for state-run programs like Minnesota’s Walk-In Access hunting program, which offers additional monetary incentives to landowners with land enrolled in conservation programs who allow public hunting on that land.       Title: Long run evolution of wilderness value: A combined cross-section time series analysis of backcountry hiking              Authors: Jeffrey Englin, T. Holmes  W4133 obj.: Task 1-3            Presenter: Jeffrey Englin       Email: jeffrey.englin@asu.edu          Abstract: N/A – presentation canceled          Title: Public access, ecological integrity, and people’s heterogeneous values of grassland restoration                 Authors: Amy Ando, S. Dissanayake, R. Iovanna, K. Wells            W4133 obj.: Task 1-1, Task 1-3 & Task 2-1             Presenter: Amy Ando           Email: amyando@illinois.edu            Abstract: Grassland, or prairie, ecosystems provide many benefits to society including species habitat, carbon sequestration, soil erosion control, and recreational opportunities. At the same time, grassland ecosystems in North America are disappearing, with grassland loss in most areas exceeding 80% since the mid-1800’s; in Illinois the loss is 99.9%.  The USDA protects and restores grasslands through the Conservation Reserve Program. However, it is more costly for farmers to plant high quality grassland habitat on CRP acres, and much remains unknown about public willingness to pay (WTP) for grassland restoration projects and how that varies with grassland quality and public access to restored grasslands. This study quantifies the relationship between the value of grassland restoration and its ecological quality and public access. We use a choice experiment survey of residents in the Tallgrass Prairie region that includes area restored, ecological quality, public access with and without hunting, and annual cost to households as attributes. There were two experimental treatments in survey administration: with and without video (to see if video of the thing being valued changes respondents’ expressed preferences) and with the cost attribute expressed in terms of sales tax or income tax (to see if this affected responses from low-income people who do not pay income tax.) We find that people have large MWTP for acres of grassland restored, and that the premium people are willing to pay for diverse grassland habitat is high. We also find that people have large MWTP to have walking and biking, while the average MWTP to have hunting also available is negative. Findings yield interesting insights into how preferences for open space and recreation vary among different groups of people.                   <h2>SESSION 4: Land Conservation</h2>   Title: Does temporary land retirement promote organic adoption? Evidence from expiring Conservation Reserve Program contracts                 Authors: Daniel Bigelow, H. Wing, K. Fuller           W4133 obj.: Task 1-1            Presenter: Daniel Bigelow    Email: daniel.bigelow@montana.edu            Abstract: The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) was established in 1985 in an effort to reduce agricultural production on highly erodible and otherwise environmentally-sensitive farmland. Through the CRP, producers can voluntarily retire land from production for a contract period of 10-15 years in exchange for a yearly rental payment. At its 2007 peak, CRP enrollment exceeded 35 million acres but has since been steadily declining. Over the same period, organic agriculture has seen tremendous revenue growth and is increasingly promoted as a potential solution to various environmental problems associated with conventional agricultural production. Despite its appeal, there remain important barriers that may dissuade conventional producers from adopting organic practices. Chief among these is the three-year transition period that prospective organic producers must get through before their products can be marketed under the USDA organic certification label. During this three-year transition period, producers incur the lower yields associated with organic production without receiving the price premium typically associated with organic products. The CRP provides a unique opportunity for producers to forgo this transition process. CRP land is, by definition, not being used for production and therefore incidentally complies with organic transition standards, allowing it to be certified in the year that it exits the program. In this paper, we study the extent to which CRP enrollment promotes uptake of organic production practices. Primary econometric results come from a set of finite distributed-lag models, which identify the effect of the number of expiring CRP contracts on the number of new certified organic operations, conditional on county fixed effects, time fixed effects, state-specific linear trends, and various county controls. Our analysis is based on a unique county-level panel dataset of organic certifications from USDA’s Organic Integrity database combined with contract-level CRP information from the USDA’s Conservation Contract Maintenance System. We exploit the 10-15-year gap between CRP enrollment and contract expiration as part of our identification strategy, which rests on the assumption that producers did not enroll in the CRP with the specific intention of converting their land to organic production upon expiration of the contract. By examining the connection between the CRP and organic agriculture, our paper provides new evidence on the fate of land in expiring CRP contracts and furthers our understanding of the importance of the transition process in organic conversion decisions. Preliminary results indicate that CRP contract expiration leads to increases in organic adoption, an effect that is most prominent in the southern region of the US. These results suggest that easing the transition period constraints faced by landowners can promote greater uptake of organic production practices, highlighting an important potential co-benefit of the CRP.     Title: The distributional impacts of land conservation          Authors: Corey Lang, J. VanCeylon, A. Ando         W4133 obj.: Task 2.1 Presenter: Corey Lang          Email: clang@uri.edu            Abstract: Wealth inequality and environmental justice issues have become more prevalent in recent years and are important policy considerations. Evidence for inequitable environmental outcomes is well-documented in research where poorer and more diverse communities are more likely to be exposed to environmental hazards like poor air quality or superfund sites compared to wealthier and whiter neighborhoods (Kahn 2002, Currie et al. 2011, Lang and Cavanagh 2018, Banzhaf et al. 2019). While environmental justice priorities are currently more present in government decision-making processes, these policies and efforts do not always lead to socially equitable outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to understand how the benefits accrued from land conservation are distributed among households. When land is conserved, this creates a place-based amenity that is capitalized into the housing market. Nearby homeowners benefit from this creation or transfer of wealth with little or no expense. Because neither home purchase location nor land conservation decisions are random, the wealth generated is unlikely to be benefit socioeconomic groups equally.     Title: Observed and unobserved heterogeneity in conservation decisions: Implications for the voluntary supply of agricultural greenhouse gas abatement                  Authors: Dale Manning, M. Rouhi Rad, D. Mansfield, S. Ogle       W4133 obj.: Task 1-1, Task 2-1 & Task 3-1 Presenter: Dale Manning      Email: Dale.Manning@colostate.edu            Abstract: Agriculture has the physical potential to contribute to global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts.  Current policy initiatives focus on voluntary efforts to influence agriculture’s impact on the climate.  Despite this, little is known about the economic viability of agricultural greenhouse gas abatement at a large scale.  Therefore, we leverage novel panel data on crop and practice choice, soil carbon, and emissions over time on more than 15,000 fields across the Cornbelt Region of the United States to estimate the quantity of agricultural greenhouse gas abatement as a function of the price paid for changes in net carbon emissions.  To do this, we develop a discrete choice modeling framework in which producers choose a crop (e.g., corn, soy, etc.) and practice (full-till, no-till, cover crop, etc.) from the set of available crops and practices observed in the region.  Importantly, we observe a rich set of farm and field characteristics that drive the relative profitability of alternative crops and practices.  After estimating the parameters of the choice model under alternative assumptions about producer heterogeneity in response to net profit, we use DayCent model simulations to estimate field-level changes in soil carbon and net emissions over a 15-year period under all feasible crop and practice choices.  Finally, we sample from predicted probabilities to estimate baseline crop and practice choices and compare those to choices under a range of carbon prices up to $100 per tonne. Through this work, we make two contributions to the agricultural and resource economics literature.  First, given existing evidence on heterogeneity in producer conservation attitudes, we explore the importance of modeling assumptions regarding the heterogeneity in response to conservation incentives.  Specifically, we estimate choice models using conditional logit, mixed logit with random parameters describing the response to net revenue, latent class models, and a combination of latent class and random parameters.  Using a subset of the data, we estimate how modeling assumptions affect the estimated abatement supply curve.  After identifying the model specification that allows for sufficient heterogeneity while minimizing computational time, we apply the model to our study area.  This leads to our second contribution: we provide an empirically relevant estimate of the cost of incentivizing agricultural greenhouse gas abatement at scale.  This can inform current and future policy efforts to encourage greenhouse gas abatement on agricultural land in the US. This work will benefit greatly from input from W4133 members.  We hope to learn from the group’s experience with choice models commonly used in valuation exercises.          <h2>SESSION 5: Stated Preference Applications</h2>   Title: Households’ Willingness to Pay for Different Attributes of Alternative Sources of Residential Electricity: Evidence from a Large Discrete Choice Experiment      Authors: Dilek Uz, J. Mamkhezri      W4133 obj.: Task 1-4            Presenter: Dilek Uz   Email: dilekuz@unr.edu        Abstract: Consistent with the dramatic decreases in costs, economic incentives offered at various governmental levels, and rising social awareness of the environmental issues, the US residential rooftop solar capacity grew rapidly in the past decade. As of December 2011, total installed residential solar capacity was about 0.8 GW spread over 159 thousand customers while this number reached 16.5 GW with more than 2.5 million customers in December 2020. There are multiple avenues through which residential solar is supported within the US energy and environment policy such as tax credits and rebates both at the federal and state level. Perhaps the most important and debated mechanism is net energy metering (NEM) which is an arrangement between a power utility company and its customers where the customer buys or rents the equipment to generate electricity onsite for own consumption   and sell any unused portion to the grid. Generating electricity in such decentralized manner with relatively small-scale equipment is referred to as distributed generation (DG). First net metering law in US was enacted in Minnesota in 1983 (Wan and Green [1998]). More than two decades of relatively slow uptake is followed by a rapid growth in net metering both in terms of customers and capacity as a response to decreasing costs and financially attractive net metering terms. However, as the capacity skyrocketed, economic feasibility and fairness concerns (more details below) grew proportionately, leading to a reversal in the state policies regarding the lucrativeness of the net metering agreements. This reversal is the main source of ongoing controversy around rooftop solar in the US. The support mechanisms for residential solar are promoted on the grounds that they provide public benefits such as avoided generation from fossil fuels and reduction in transmission losses via bringing together the point of generation and consumption. The proponents assert that these supports are needed to incentivize private investments in renewable energy and diversify the energy sources while helping the local economy and the environment.3 On the other hand, economists raise concerns that NEM causes unfair cost shifting unto non-solar households who, on average, tend to be on the lower end of the income distribution compared to solar households (Inzunza and Knittel [2020]). Furthermore, studies showed that public benefits of residential solar are highly location specific and overall, not necessarily high enough to justify the costs of supporting the NEM programs (Brown and Bunyan [2014]; Cohen and Callaway [2016]). Consistent with this, compensation scheme - how much the NEM customer should be compensated for their exports to the grid, has been the subject of ongoing policy debates in many states. As of October 2016, 44 states (plus the District of Columbia) implemented mandatory NEM policies with varying rules whereas this number has retracted to 37 states (plus District of Columbia) as of August 2021. In the third quarter of 2021 alone, 27 states took a total of 55 actions related to DG compensation rules (Proudlove et al. [2021]). In December 2021, the public utilities commission of California– the state with the largest installed residential solar capacity in the US, has issued a proposed decision to cut back the compensation that the net metering customers receive for their exports into the grid. The usual scenario for a rooftop solar panel sale involves a customer soliciting information from one or more vendors. Afterwards, a member of the sales team meets with individual customers during which they deliver their sales pitch. It usually includes some information about financial advantages of owning solar panels which are derived using some strong underlying assumptions about future energy prices. Additionally, the sales representative often makes remarks about the importance of being independent from the utility company as well as the environmental benefits associated with this investment. As mentioned above, in addition to the public benefits, rooftop solar panels offer a variety of private benefits to their owners. These include financial benefits such as potential reduction in energy bills and appreciation for home value as well as subjective or psychological benefits like “warm glow”7, the ability to signal environmental values, and the feeling of being more self-dependent. Understanding how much US households value these private benefits is vital for rooftop solar producers who need to be able to develop effective marketing strategies to expand their customer base beyond the early adopters in a policy environment where support for NEM has the potential to gradually weaken. The findings could also inform the policy makers, who are tasked with formulating compensation schemes while balancing fairness and meeting the demands of highly vocal residential solar proponents. In an ideal setting to investigate how much consumers value different attributes of various home energy options, the researchers would observe the households making actual investment decisions while facing different alternatives with varying attributes. However, unfortunately, such a dataset does not exist. Furthermore, the existing records on past household meetings with solar customer representative and the choices of potential customers are proprietary to the rooftop solar vendors. The next best alternative is to simulate the choice settings with consumers. With this in mind, we develop and implement a large stated-preference discrete choice experiment (N = 1033) in order to disentangle the willingness to pay (WTP) for distinct private benefit sources of owning rooftop solar panels. Participants, who are selected from the demographic groups that are more likely to purchase solar panels based on existing demographic data on rooftop solar owners, are asked to choose from different energy options with varying payment schedules and other attributes (explained in more detail below). The study also features a randomized control trial (RCT) component where a randomly selected subset of the participants (treatment group) are presented with the net present value (NPV) of each of the options together with the payment schedule which is composed of the down-payment and net monthly out-of-pocket costs. The control group, on the other hand, is only presented with the payment schedule without the NPV information. This study contributes to the current body of knowledge on WTP for renewable energy and household investment decisions in various ways. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that i) differentiates the WTP for distinct attributes of a renewable energy source, ii) investigates the importance of information provision in investment decisions within the renewable energy setting, and iii) incorporates decision makers’ political affiliations as a control variable. Furthermore, we expand the current WTP methodology by presenting individual-level WTPs coupled with their confidence intervals. In order to do this, we first estimate a random coefficients (mixed) logit model using the Hierarchical Bayes (HB) method. We then construct and provide visualisations for the 95% confidence intervals of the WTP for various attributes by taking the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the set of estimates created using the parameter draws that the HB method yields. For this exercise, we implement the “individual parameters” approach explained in Revelt and Train [1998] in order to conduct an individualized refining to the coefficient draws obtained from the parameter draws. Our study leads to a number of important findings. First, we show that there is a considerable amount of heterogeneity in consumer WTPs for different attributes where fixed coefficients logit fails to capture. This is evident not only in the significant standard deviation estimates inherent in the mixed logit estimations but also in the individual level confidence intervals for the WTP estimates we construct. Second, when presented with the NPV information for the options they are facing, the WTPs that the consumers demonstrate for the attribute we are studying are up to an order of magnitude less than the case where this information is suppressed. This finding has important implications for the future of rooftop solar in the US where the current policy environment around supporting NEM is highly controversial. In other words, without the financial advantages of NEM policies, rooftop solar industry may face serious challenges expanding their customer base especially if their marketing pitch solely depends on selling “energy independence” to households. Another important insight to be gained here is that our results raise potential concerns regarding the reliability of WTP figures estimated in investment related discrete choice settings where the NPV information is not provided.   Title: Willingness to Pay for Green Energy, Green Jobs and Green Views: A Choice Experiment on Offshore Wind Energy               Authors: Lee Parton, S. Lutzeyer, D. J. Phaneuf, L. O. Taylor         W4133 obj.: Task 2-1            Presenter: Lee Parton            Email: leeparton@boisestate.edu        Abstract:   We conduct a choice-experiment estimating the changes in electricity prices which North Carolina residents would be willing to face to have wind energy augment the grid, and how willingness to pay for green energy varies depending on the visual, social and environmental impacts associated with offshore wind development. Respondents were presented with offshore wind farm scenarios at different distances from the coast and information regarding the emissions reductions and job creation that accompany different development scenarios. We explore the extent to which job creation and carbon reductions can offset visual disamenities and differences in prefences across coastal and inland residents. We find preference heterogeneity dependent on the siting location, i.e., whether the wind farm is visible from a hypothetical resort town or along the Cape Hatteras National Seashore. Using a latent class model, we find a class of respondents indicating positive willingness to pay (WTP) for wind farm development visible from a tourist town and negative WTP for wind farms visible from the Cape Hatteras National Seashore. Conversely, we find a class of respondents who prefer a hypothetical wind farm be constructed along the National Seashore as opposed to being visible from a hypothetical tourist town.   Title: Comparing Money vs Labor Payments in Individual and Group Settings for Choice Experiments in Developing Country Settings              Authors: Sahan Dissanayake, S. Vidanage   W4133 obj.: Task 1-1 & Task 2-1     Presenter: Sahan Dissanayake           Email: sdissan2@gmail.com  Abstract: The use of stated preference methods in developing countries is growing with the increasing concern about the environment as economies develop. At the same time using monetary payment vehicles and estimating a Willingess to Pay (WTP) can be problematic in rural or low incomes areas in developing countries. Many respondents in these areas regularly engage in barter and paying with labor and do not use monetary paymetns for all transactions. This distinction from urban areas with a monetary economy and with most settings in developed countries can impact results from valuation studies as the WTP elicited from rural and low-income areas is likely to be low even though respondents may have a high value and be willing to pay through other means. In response to these concerns, a growing number of stated preference studies explore using both monetary and non-monetary payment options. We contribute to this literature by exploring how the use of monetary vs labor payment options can impact values eclitied from choice experiment studies coundcuted in rural developing country settings. Our application is a choice experiment survey to value restoring an ancient irrigation system known as cascading tank systems in Sri Lankan. The cascading tank systems are designed to complement the surrounding landscape and has parallels to the Japanese land use system of Satoyama. In Sri Lanka, these irrigations systems were created over 1500-2000 years ago but are still functioning today and provide irrigation for nearly 40% of the total irrigable area of the country. At the same time these ancient systems are degrading and there a large number of efforts to restore these systems which the FAO recently identified as a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS). We conduct a choice experiment to understand the WTP/willingesss-to-contribute of rural households to restore these irrigiation systems. We also contribute to the literature on the applications of choice experiments in developing country settings by comparing data gathering methods, specifically individual surveys vs group information session. We find that in the individual survey settings respondents are more willing to contribute labor (compared to an equivalent monetary payment). Based on the early results we find that there is no difference between the group and individual survey settings when the survey is presented as a monetary payment but for the labor payment treatment, the group setting results in a positive payment coefficient for the labor payment attribute (i.e., respondents are willing to contribute labor when the survey is conducted in a group setting). We are currently exploring the heterogeneity of these results across respondents and plan to include these new results in the presentation as well.   Title: Household Preference for Impure Public Goods - an Application of Community Gardens   Authors: Liqing Li, D. Long W4133 obj.: Task 2-1 Presenter: Liqing Li  Email: liqing@Fullerton.edu Abstract: Urban agriculture (UA) has grown as a planning priority in many cities in the U.S. As an essential form of UA, community gardens create a space for residents to grow plants. While they share similarities with other types of urban greenspace by providing ecosystem services as public goods. individuals who are often motivated to participate in garden management in hope of obtaining the private consumption benefits (i.e., harvested vegetables and fruits), which in turn contributes to the provision of the public goods such as biodiversity. Community gardens are thus impure public goods. While many studies have examined the benefits of urban agriculture and other types of urban greenspace like parks, few have focused on community gardens. Even though community gardens are seen as a tool addressing social equity issues like food insecurity among low-income communities and unbalanced distributions of urban green spaces (Siegner et al., 2018), preferences for local and healthy food are typically associated with highly educated and wealthy communities (Bellemare and Dusoruth, 2020). It is therefore unclear whether there is a demand for such food among low-income households whom the gardens intend to benefit. More importantly, it is critical to evaluate whether public goods co-benefits encourage individual’s willingness to contribute to community gardens. We fill the gap in the literature by estimating individuals' preferences for community gardens with both private and public characteristics. Specifically, we explore the heterogeneity in their monetary willingness to pay (WTP) and non-monetary willingness to volunteer (WTV). We will conduct a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to estimate households’ WTP and WTV for community garden in Los Angeles, California. The status quo scenario is a piece of vacant land with no community garden. The respondents are presented with a total of six discrete-choice questions. Each choice question includes five varying attributes with the corresponding attribute levels: monetary cost, time cost, ecosystem services, food allocation, and garden scale. To quantify the individual level valuation for community gardens while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity, we estimate a mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model. To explore heterogeneity in households’ preferences, we include interaction terms of factors such as neighborhood diversity with choice-specific attributes in the MMNL. Second, to illustrate how preferences vary across different neighborhoods, we recover the conditional individual-specific means of marginal WTP and WTV for every respondent and then calculate the zip code level valuation for each attribute. Taken together, our analysis examines benefits offered by community gardens and factors affecting the provision of impure public goods with both public and private goods component. Our study contributes to several strands of literature. First, we offer insights on whether and how public co-benefits affect people’s valuation of impure environmental public goods (MacKerron, 2009). Second, we contribute to the urban agriculture and greenspace literature by investigating the heterogeneity in households’ preferences such as how diversity or social cohesion affects their evaluation (Printezis & Grebitus, 2020). Lastly, our study complements a recent yet rapidly developing literature on measuring valuations of environmental assets using non-pecuniary payment modes like time (Ando et al., 2020).               <h2>SESSION 6: Valuation of Coastal Resources</h2>   Title: The Effect of Managed Retreat on Coastal Property Markets: Evidence from the NY Rising Buyout and Acquisition Program  Authors: Steven Dundas, Y. Hashida            W4133 obj.: Task 1-2 & Task 1-4     Presenter: Steven Dundas     Email: steven.dundas@oregonstate.edu       Abstract:   Understanding the economic impacts to a community of removing housing and infrastructure from hazard-prone locations is an open empirical question. Using data from a buyout and acquisition program in the U.S. state of New York and residential property transactions between 1995 and 2020, we recover hedonic estimates of the property value impacts of government-acquired properties in a coastal hazard area. Our identification strategy exploits the spatial proximities between sales and bought-out houses and the timing of different stages of the buyout process - closing, demolition (to be converted to open space), auction, and redevelopment. Our results suggest that buyouts have a large negative effect on housing prices for adjacent houses, with that effect becoming smaller at the block and neighborhood scale and then dissipating completely beyond 800 m. These findings are consistent between different difference-in-differences specifications, including two-way fixed effects, an event study, an event study that addresses concerns of treatment effect heterogeneity and variation in treatment timing, and a triple difference model. The event study specifications suggest housing market impacts likely dissipate after four to seven years. We also find heterogeneity in impacts across space and at different stages of the buyout process. Our findings are relevant for policy by demonstrating the housing market implications of different buyout methods, the role of information in the buyout process, and by highlighting potential avenues to minimize negative impacts of managed retreat.    Title: Preferences for Buyouts and Rentbacks on the East Coast                 Authors: Anna Perry, C. Landry       W4133 obj.: Task 1-2 Task 1-4 & Task 3-2  Presenter: Anna Perry           Email: anna.perry1@uga.edu Abstract: We use survey data to assess coastal residents’ willingness to accept (WTA) a property buyout and willingness to pay (WTP) to rentback their property from the state government after a buyout (obviating financial risk of property loss). Placing risk of property loss in the expected utility framework, we implicitly define WTA and WTP as a function of flood experience, risk perception, risk preference, affect (worry), income, wealth, and other factors. We utilize univariate and bivariate Tobit and Cragg models to analyze the data. We find WTA/sqft is increasing in income and a wealth proxy (likely reflecting housing quality), while risk perceptions have no significant effect (potentially due to endogeneity). WTP/sqft is increasing in expected hurricane damages and worry, but not influenced by income or wealth. We present a foundation for structural estimation and explore policy implications.          Title: The Impact of Air Pollution on Outdoor Recreation: An Application to Shoreline Fishing Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast          Authors: Roger von Haefen, Y. Liu  W4133 obj.: Task 1-1, Task 1-3 & Task 2-1 Presenter: Roger von Haefen            Email: rhhaefen@ncsu.edu    Abstract:             A large travel cost literature investigates how improvements in water quality impact recreation demand, but relatively few studies investigate how improvements in air quality impact recreation demand. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploiting remotely sensed PM2.5 data for the entire East and Gulf Coast regions and 15 years of shoreline fishing data from the Marine Recreational Information Program (MRIP). Using a two-stage linked modeling framework (Parsons and Kealy, 1995), we first estimate random utility maximization (RUM) models of site choice separately by year and two-month wave, and then estimate a Poisson participation model with fixed effects by year, wave, and origin zip code. Our preliminary results suggest that air pollution has a negative and statistically significant impact on recreation demand, and in addition to refining our air pollution data, our next steps include constructing welfare measures for several policy scenarios.                                <h2>SESSION 7: Recreation</h2>   Title: Using cell phone data in discrete choice recreation demand models: A case study of Rocky Mountain National Park             Authors: Jude Bayham, R. Schmidt  W4133 obj.: Task 2-1 Presenter: Jude Bayham        Email: Jude.Bayham@colostate.edu Abstract: Nonmarket valuation has been a cornerstone of environmental economics for decades. Data collection generally requires the development and administration of surveys that cost both time and money. Over the past five years, technology has enabled the passive collection of high-resolution mobile device geolocation data. Many studies have used mobile device location data in research related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and some have used data to document trends in recreation activity. However, none (to our knowledge) have used individual-level device data to estimate discrete-choice recreation demand models. We construct a dataset to estimate the welfare impacts of closing Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado for several months during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Spring of 2020. Specifically, we construct visitation diaries of over 2000 devices believed to reside in three counties near RMNP to 41 recreation sites in Northern Colorado. We use google maps to estimate travel time and distance from the devices common evening location (home) to all recreation sites. We estimate a Random Utility Model using data in the summer months following RMNP’s reopening. We use the model to simulate a closure of RMNP and quantify the redistribution of visits to substitute recreation sites and measure the welfare impacts of the closure. We compare the results of the RUM to a single site travel cost model to highlight the importance of capturing substitute sites in measuring the impacts of a site closure. We find that people did substitute other recreation sites during RMNP closure. The results of the RUM support the intuition that accounting for substitution reduces the welfare cost of a site closure. While the results are interesting and have policy implications for large national park closures, the contribution of the research is to demonstrate how this emerging data source can be used to estimate welfare impacts for almost any recreation site in the US. The presentation will also cover the limitation of the data including the substantial data processing costs.           Title: COVID-19 mandates and recreation in Idaho             Authors: Sophie Croome       W4133 obj.: Task 1-3            Presenter: Sophie Croome    Email: sophiecroome@boisestate.edu           Abstract: Significant survey data exists for national and state park visitation and several studies have measured consumer preferences and visitation patterns (Kupfer, 2021; Volenec, 2021; Wood, 2013; Yan, 2021). However, municipal park visitation remains largely understudied due to the difficulty and costliness associated with data collection and analysis. This study utilizes high frequency mobile device location data to measure changes in municipal and state park visitation caused by COVID-19 response policies. We exploit spatial and temporal variation in COVID-19 mandates at the county level in the U.S. state of Idaho and at the state level in the United States to identify the causal effect of mandates on park visitation. The research finds that people were more likely to recreate in, and come from, areas with less restrictions. Visitation rates were about seven percent lower in areas with a mask mandate than would be expected if no policies were in place. Estimates of visitation patterns based on visitors’ origin states indicate that of the people who recreate in Idaho, a state with limited COVID-19 response, the visitation rate was about 21 percent less for states with mask mandates than that of a state without a mask mandate. This research brings insight on behavioral response to restrictions and on recreational choice behavior.             Title: Estimating changes in value flows for recreational resources: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic                        Authors: Matt Sloggy, D. Long, J. S nchez W4133 obj.: Task 1-3 Presenter: Matt Sloggy         Email: matthew.sloggy@usda.gov    Abstract: Several studies examining recreation patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic have found substantial drops in visitation to parks (e.g., Landry et al. 2021) but booms in visitation to forests (Derks et al., 2020). However, few have examined other kinds of recreational activities, namely visiting public wilderness areas where social distancing is much easier. Increases in visitation to public lands may raise costs for agencies, and insufficient funding can degrade ecosystem services due to overuse and deferred maintenance. It is thus important to examine if current trends will continue following the pandemic, which provides critical information needed to coordinate the proper amount of investment. Additionally, recreation is an important economic activity, stimulating purchases in a variety of industries. This study fills the gap in the literature by analyzing how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed visitation, group size, and time spent recreating in two wilderness areas, Desolation Wilderness (DW) and the Inyo National Forest (INF), located in California. We create a unique dataset by combining visitation permit data with data on smoke conditions and weather. The final dataset contains a total of 49,843 permits across both wilderness areas. The average group size remains constant across the two years (2.9 persons per permit). The total visitation in our sample is 61,865 in 2019 and 81,621 in 2020. We also obtain weather precipitation and temperature data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model dataset, income and population data from the American Community Survey, and smoke cover data from NOAA. We estimate a travel cost model in which the slope of the demand curve is a function of the pandemic. The estimation results show that pandemic has increased visitation on average, and this increase is primarily driven by increases in visitation to the INF. Furthermore, we find that the slope of the demand curve for recreation is a function of whether the pandemic is occurring or not (whether it is later than March 13th, 2020). This indicates that the pandemic limited the choice set of recreators, leading to an increase in the value of sites that are accessible. We also find the demand curve of visitation to the wilderness areas became less elastic. This further implies that the value of visitation increased during the pandemic. Though past research has examined visitor permit data, this is the first that analyzes the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on recreation in wilderness areas. We make several contributions to the literature. We extend work that finds increases in visitation to forests by estimating the extent to which the pandemic changed the value of the resource. We nuance similar research demonstrating decreases in recreation by highlighting the importance of the variety of recreation. Additionally, we contribute to the recreation literature by further demonstrating how the use and value of recreational resources change during times of crisis, that is, a pandemic. Taken together, these results provide useful information that helps forest managers implement efficient strategies to maintain access to the public during unexpected events.         Title: Seasonal variation in recreational value by activity in a state and national scenic river corridor – The case of the Little Miami                      Authors: Brent Sohngen, A. Longstreth, C. Barnett, H. Taft, B. Schiemann           W4133 obj.: Task 1-3 Presenter: Brent Sohngen     Email: sohngen.1@osu.edu   Abstract: This study develops estimates of the value of recreational activities in the Little Miami River corridor, a state and national scenic river, in Southwestern Ohio.  The corridor includes a multi-use pathway that forms part of the Ohio river to Lake Erie recreational trail, as well as many local and state parks that provide access to the river and its largely intact riparian corridor. The river corridor flows to the east of the Cincinnati-Dayton Metropolitan area, a heavily populated and industrialized region in the state of Ohio. State parks and state nature preserves provide unique outdoor recreational activities, as do locally managed parks. Despite long-held policy interest in protecting the river and the corridor, little is known about the number of people who recreate there annually or the value they provide.  Working with a set of over 20 volunteers, we designed a stratified random sampling procedure to determine the number of visitors to 51 locations along a 50 mile stretch of the corridor. Sampling at the sites occurred form April 1, 2021 to October 31, 2021, and involved counting cars and leaving a flyer on each car requesting individuals to respond to a short survey.  The data suggest that there were over 750,000 visitors to the 51 locations over the 7-month survey period.  Using a zonal travel cost model, we estimate average consumer surplus of $12.03 per trip.  We explore variation in consumer surplus across the seasons and across various activities, including biking, hiking, paddling, and fishing.                <h2>SESSION 8: Measurement Error and Environmental Exposure</h2>   Title: Remotely Incorrect? Accounting for Nonclassical Measurement Error in Satellite Data on Deforestation               Authors: Jennifer Alix-Garcia, D. Millimet  W4133 obj.: Task 1-1 Presenter: Jennifer Alix-Garcia         Email: jennifer.alix-garcia@oregonstate.edu.            Abstract: Historically, data on land use have been obtained from ground surveys. However, this has changed over time. There are now over 2,000 satellites orbiting Earth. In combination with the growth in computer processing power, this has driven an explosion in the availability of data - on land use as well as other environmental attributes - derived from remote sensing methods. Remotely sensed data offers numerous advantages. First, satellite data can provide global coverage. Second, whereas survey data suffers from many sources of error (enumeration errors, response biases), these are necessarily eliminated through satellite collection. However, absence of familiar types of data error does not imply the absence of all error. Systematic mismeasurement in remotely sensed measurements is likely present. This paper details the nature of these errors, discusses the econometric implications, and identifies an estimator that could help ameliorate the problem. To begin, we describe the process by which satellite data moves from sensors to usable data and review the econometric implications of misclassification of the dependent variable on several binary choice estimators common in the land use literature. We then discuss alternative estimators, representing extensions of the misclassification binary choice model proposed in Hausman et al. (1998). In particular, we consider two extensions. First, we allow for the misclassification rates to depend on covariates (Lewbel 2000). Here, the covariates capture environmental attributes affecting the accuracy of satellite classifications. Second, we use the scobit family of binary choice models, which nests the logit model as a special case (Nagler 1994). The scobit introduces an additional shape parameter into the link function. This additional flexibility has proven useful when the outcome is of the rare-events type (Golet, 2014), which is the case for deforestation. We provide evidence of nonclassical measurement error in both binary and continuous measures of forest cover using two satellite-based measures of forest cover for Mexico near the same time period and based upon imagery from the same type of sensor. Correlations between the differences in two measures and environmental (slope, elevation, biome) and sensor attributes are statistically and economically significant, consistent with the data suffering from nonclassical measurement error. To investigate the practical performance of the estimators considered we examine the impact of a program of payments for ecosystem services on deforestation in Mexico over the period 2003-2015. Prior to analyzing the data, we undertake a Monte Carlo study designed to mimic the panel data. The simulations lead to three primary conclusions. First, ignoring misclassification introduces significant bias. Second, current approaches in the literature designed to deal with misclassification do not eliminate bias. Third, our extensions of the Hausman et al. (1998) estimator perform quite well. In our application, we also obtain three main findings. First, the satellite-based measure that we use under-reports the true extent of deforestation. Topography and the availability of images are important determinants of misclassification. Second, ignoring misclassification results in bias of the average marginal effects, although the bias need not always be toward zero. In our application the estimated treatment effect is reasonably estimated, but the average marginal effects are significantly attenuated for the other covariates in the model, especially those that are determinants of misclassification.            Title: In Utero Environmental Exposures and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Large-Scale Animal Feeding Operations                  Authors: Laura O. Taylor, N. Abashidze, J. Hochard           W4133 obj.: Task 1-1 Presenter: Laura O. Taylor    Email: laura.taylor@gatech.edu        Abstract: We estimate the causal effects of hog farm facilities on birth outcomes in surrounding communities using rich, spatially explicit, individual-level data that links infant births to detailed geographic information on hog farm operations.  The contribution that in utero exposure to pollution has on birth outcomes is important for policy makers, medical professionals, and families to understand as they work to reduce the incidence of preterm births and other negative birth outcomes. A small number of recent papers have used observational data and credible research designs to find negative effects of in-utero exposure to pollution generated by industrial activities on birth outcomes.  Our research extends this work to an important source of community exposure in rural areas: large-scale animal feeding operations (AFOs).  With more than 450,000 AFOs in the U.S., the potential impact of AFOs on birth outcomes could be significant and more heavily borne by low-income or minority populations that can be correlated spatially with AFOs.  Our research focuses on birth outcomes from mothers living near pork producing AFOs. Hog farming is a $22.5 billion industry in the U.S. with more than 60,000 farms raising over 72 million hogs in 2017.  Most hogs in the country are raised in AFOs, where large numbers of animals, their waste, and other byproducts are concentrated over a small land area.  AFOs have generated public concerns regarding odor and potential health effects due to airborne particulate matter and toxic gases present in hog waste storage lagoons (e.g., ammonia, methane, hydrogen sulfide, and carbon monoxide), especially when their contents are sprayed seasonally on neighboring fields as part of waste management plans.  The causal effects of hog AFOs on public health outcomes are not well understood despite the scale of the industry and conflict between AFO operators and neighboring communities. We exploit exogenous variation in daily wind direction during a woman’s pregnancy relative to prevailing winds to identify the effects of hog farm exposure on birth outcomes. Evidence suggests that in-utero exposures to hog farm facilities reduce birth weight, shorten gestation periods and increase the likelihood of preterm birth. These airborne exposures are concentrated within three miles of these facilities and are driven by the season with greatest sprayfield activity. Taken together, these findings shape a landscape of birth outcomes that reveal “hotspots” of vulnerable populations where the social costs of environmental exposures are highest.                 Title: Addressing measurement error from movers in a travel cost analysis with revealed and stated preference data           Authors: Sonja Kolstoe, K. Poisal     W4133 obj.: Task 1-3 & Task 2-1 Presenter: Sonja Kolstoe       Email: sonja.kolstoe@usda.gov         Abstract: To conduct a travel cost study, information is needed on the respondent’s origin and recreation destination. Travel cost models rely on travel cost being measured with minimal measurement error to avoid issues of internal validity of estimates of this parameter. To date, to the best of our knowledge, little attention has been paid to measurement error in the respondent’s origin if they moved during the study period. Moving potentially changes the overall distance to the recreation site, introducing the possibility of measurement error in the absence of data about when and where the respondent moved. To address this problem in count models, we propose using a weighted travel cost measure that accounts for when respondents moved, i.e., movers, as well as when they took trips. We incorporate this correction into a travel cost model combining revealed and stated preference data on coastal recreation use in Delaware and use it to value changes in sea-level rise accounting for respondents moving in our sample. We use responses from an online survey on zonal trip behavior for 2019 and 2020 as well as contingent behavior data on the hypothetical reduction in the size of coastal public lands because associated with sea-level rise. We use a zonal approach to model trip frequency using actual and stated data from 2019 and 2020 under three different area reduction scenarios of 25%, 50% and 75% due increasing sea-level rise. We estimate per-trip welfare estimates and well as calculate changes in welfare due to differences in behavior based on the contingent behavior scenarios. On average movers in our sample move closer to Delaware coastal public lands; non-Delaware residents moved about 64 miles closer on average and Delaware residents moved about 28 miles closer on average. We find evidence of a statistical difference in consumer surplus between the unweighted and weighted travel cost estimates for non-Delaware residents, but not for Delaware residents. These results suggest that it may be important to gather information on if and when respondents move within the study time and study area in order to have the data available to minimize measurement error in travel cost. Future studies may want to consider asking questions about moving and seasonal visitation behavior when asking for past year’s trips to adjust the travel cost for this change in origin.

Impact Statements

Impacts Objective 1: Resource Management Colorado State University: • Climate beliefs work was cited in a CNN article (https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/16/opinions/orange-county-fire-climate-change-action-sutter) Kansas State University: • (Task 1-1 and 2-1): Policymakers and industry (agriculture and bioenergy) benefit through the availability of information on potential land use implications from oilseeds grown for biojet fuel, potential supply of oilseed for biojet fuel production, and market mechanisms (e.g., contracts) needed to help establish a supply chain for biojet fuel production from oilseeds. Farmers benefit from project activities by better understanding the potential for this enterprise, conservation and land use considerations, and potential management implications for their farming operations. Students benefited from involvement in the research, being educated about bioenergy production, and being exposed to interdisciplinary research projects. The broader public benefits from the research through a better understanding of how oilseeds can be used for biojet fuel production and how the U.S. can increase renewable energy and bioenergy production using more sustainable pathways of production. • (Task 1-1) The research helped to meet the goal of better understanding factors that influence conservation of agricultural land and the potential to increase conservation across the agricultural landscape. The information can help policymakers shape conservation policy and management to meet farmers' needs at local, state and national levels. In addition, the research helped to better understand how we can better tailor outreach efforts to agricultural producers to help increase conservation efforts on-farm. The broader public benefits from the project activities by understanding how farmers are actively engaging in conservation of our land resources and the benefits attributed to that conservation. Louisiana State University: • Penn conducted a webinar and guest blog post for the Xerces society related to benefits and costs of pollinator conservation. beecityusa.org/the-economics-support-bee-campus-usa-certification/ • Work on recreational value of Southern Flounder presented to several non-economics audiences including annual meetings for the Texas Chapter American Fisheries Society, the Southern Division American Fisheries Society. The results of the survey, specifically angler preferences towards potential protections for Southern Flounder were also a consideration by the Louisiana Dept. of Wildlife and Fisheries in their decision to modify the season length. Mississippi State University: • Grants obtained: o Lehrter, J. (PI), S. Yun (Co-PI), D.R. Petrolia (Co-PI), R. Baker (Co-PI), J. Cebrian (Co-PI), B. Dzwonkowski (Co-PI), L. Kalin (Co-PI), L. Lowe (Co-PI), S. Powers (Co-PI), D. Tian (Co-PI). “Building Resilience for Oysters, Blue Crabs, and Spotted Seatrout to Environmental Trends and Variability in the Gulf of Mexico.” NOAA RESTORE Science Program. September 1, 2019 – August 31, 2024, $2,887,250. o Yun, S. (PI), D.R. Petrolia (Co-PI), M. Interis (Co-PI), E. Yu (Co-PI), S. Rush, C. Hellwinckel. "Sustainable Bioenergy Production and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services." USDA NIFA-AFRI. January 1, 2019 – December 31, 2021, $468,998. o Petrolia, D.R. (PI). “Return on Investment from Wind Hazard Mitigation.” Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium. February 1, 2018 – January 31, 2021, $194,976. Montana State University: • Presentation to 2021 Montana Agricultural Economics Outlook Conference. o Title: “Recent Trends in Agricultural and Forest Land Conversion” o Audience: Approximately 100 Montana agricultural stakeholders, including producers, industry and government representatives, extension personnel, and academic researchers. o Web link: Economics Conference - MSU Extension - Ag Marketing Policy | Montana State University Oregon State University: • Alix-Garcia served as a mentor to policymakers in 7 Latin American countries under The Restoration Accelerator program organized by the World Resources Institute. • Dundas presented findings from previous work with w4133 collaborators (Dundas and Lewis 2020; Parton and Dundas 2020; Beasley and Dundas 2021) on nonmarket values and incentives in coastal land use policy to managers and policy makers at the Puget Sound Nearshore Restoration Summit in April 2021 to help inform new legislative initiatives along the Washington Coast. University of Georgia: • Contributed to design and assessment of Green Infrastructure Investments for flood control and ecosystem services for Tybee Island, GA (Chatham County) – funded by the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign: • Ando’s research (published in Land Economics) is shaping better policy for home buyouts in the face of increasingly common and severe flood and storm events. Ando’s research about the benefits of pandemic prevention helped inform international conversations about how much to invest in nature conservation. University of Maine • Improved understanding of landowners’ decision-making in the Northern Forest Region will help resource managers better anticipate and manage landscape change and disturbance. University of Wyoming: • Task-1.1 This report provides input to the Wyoming State Trails Program and is used for snowmobile trails management decisions at the state level. • The first paper encourages researchers to consider a broader set of economic incentives when measuring “Sense of Place”. The second paper finds that landowners are less likely to reject a CE agreement when there is a desire to bequest agricultural land to the next generation or a perceived threat to sense of place; however, conservation ethic mitigates intergenerational bequest effects. This indicates that conservation ethic encompasses a desire to pass land to the next generation. • Our research on wildlife corridor conservation and conservation easements is supporting state-level policy in WY and CO, and providing technical support for regional NGOs that improves their ability to more efficiently use limited conservation funds to protect ecosystem service provision form private lands. Objective 2: Economic Valuation Colorado State University: • The work related to bats’ value has received media attention (e.g., https://agsci.source.colostate.edu/csu-researcher-finds-fighting-white-nose-syndrome-in-bats-benefits-agriculture/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=topStory&utm_campaign=f0513-22) and Manning and Ando have presented results to government officials in USGS and US Fish and Wildlife Service. They are scheduled to present at the 2022 White-nose Syndrome National Meeting in June of 2022. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign: • Ando’s project activity is helping policy makers and land managers to make good choices to increase the benefits people get from grassland restoration. University of Maine: • Improved understanding of data streams and methods to assess use of recreation areas over space and time in Maine will support the development of improved recreation demand valuation methods and enhance decision-support systems for natural resource and recreation resource managers in Maine and beyond. Virginia Tech University: • Bayesian Meta-Regression: The target audience for this project is primarily the EPA, which uses these models categorically for water-related rulemaking. Other target audiences include peers and practitioners that work on meta-analyses related to environmental quality change. A third audience is USDA, who applies these methods to better understand the benefits from land conservation programs, Overall, this audience is regional, national, and international. This past year, the EPA continued to use methods developed through this project to assess lost benefits from wetland services due to a revision of the "Waters of the United States" portion of the Clean Water Act. • Free-form choice experiment: The primary target audience includes government agencies that are concerned with comprehensive watershed management, such as EPA, NOAA, USDA, USFS, and USGS. Other target audiences include peers and practitioners that work on watershed improvements, and/or valuation modeling, and/or online labor market use for environmental valuation. The latter audience is regional, national, and international. A mix of these target audiences was reached via seminar presentations at the annual meetings of this project (virtual, Mar. 4-5, 2021), the annual meetings of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA, Austin, TX, Aug. 1-3), and the annual meetings of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (AERE, virtual, June 2-4, 2021). Objective 3: Integrated Policy and Decision-Making Colorado State University: • Jesse Burkhardt and coauthors made presentations on water shortages and drought impacts in Colorado to funding agency, NOAA and NIDIS. Mississippi State University: • Grants Obtained: o Petrolia, D.R. (PI), J. Haner (Co-PI), and T. Mohrman (Co-PI). "What is the Value of Ecosystem Services Provided by Recent Restoration Efforts on the Northern Gulf Coast?" Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium. February 1, 2022 – January 31, 2024, $224,945. o Petrolia, D.R. (PI), A. Harri, W.C. Walton, J. Cebrian, J. Rider, and G. Ramseur. “SPAT: Shellfish Portfolio Assessment Tool.” NOAA RESTORE Science Program. June 1, 2017 – May 31, 2021, $590,143. Oregon State University: • Dundas and a graduate student (Graham Shaw) published a technical report for the NOAA Office of Restoration and the Tillamook Estuaries Partnership valuing the economic impacts of a completed wetlands restoration in Oregon. The report reviewed data gaps to better understand the potential contribution of the restoration to economic benefits to the local community. The report produced a collection and assessment of the data available about the socioeconomic impacts of the restoration for service flows related to water quality, flood mitigation, salmon habitat creation, carbon storage, and benefits to the community. It also reports results from a new housing market analysis to determine if and how the restoration affected local housing values. The goal of this report was to better inform stakeholder engagement, policy development, and implementation plans for future ecosystem restoration efforts through an economic lens. University of Tennessee: • The portfolio weights across the counties and taxonomic groups from the two steps entail both spatial and taxonomic diversification strategies. Conservation decisions that allow for selecting sites for risk diversification fit the purpose of the first step. Likewise, conservation investments that benefit biodiversity of particular taxonomic groups for the selected sites are made based on the relative importance in diversifying risk among species in a given area, fitting the purpose of the second-step. The two-step MPT approach as a whole allows the greatest flexibility on where and what to protect for conservation investment under uncertainty, and thus would be applicable for the distribution of general conservation funds without predisposition toward protecting either specific sites or species. University of Wyoming: • Task-3.2 Intended development of incentive programs to encourage ranch/landowner employment of BMPs in a small rural watershed.