Annual/Termination Reports:

[02/27/2011] [05/19/2011] [08/31/2012] [11/18/2013]

Report Information

Participants

Name Affiliation E-mail address
Clyde W. Fraisse University of Florida cfraisse@ufl.edu
Ryan Boyles North Carolina State University ryan_boyles@ncsu.edu
John Holman Kansas State University jholman@ksu.edu
Gerrit Hoogenboom University of Georgia gerrit@uga.edu
Q. S. Hu University of Nebraska qhu2@unl.edu
Perry Miller Montana State University pmiller@montana.edu
Mickey Ransom Kansas State University mdransom@ksu.edu
Mike Schmitt University of Minnesota schmi009@umn.edu
Bob Seem Cornell University res4@cornell.edu
Scott Staggenborg Kansas State University sstaggen@ksu.edu

Brief Summary of Minutes

Accomplishments

Nebraska:<br /> We analyzed the observed and predicted drought variability in the continental U.S. In the analysis we downscaled the present-day control simulations and predictions of future climate in the 21st century from 16 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models included in the IPCC AR4 from the models grid resolutions to a 1/8 degree grid system. This statistically-downscaled dataset covers the continental U.S. for the period from 1950 to 2099. The predictions of future climate were made with low, median and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1b, and A2). Using the downscaled temperature and precipitation data we calculated the PDSI and used it to evaluate the drought variability. Major results suggest that the High Plains will become drier in the future warmer climate. Significant increases in drought intensity and durations are projected for this region. An article on the changes in drought variability in the continental U.S. is currently in preparation.<br /> We modified a hybrid soil temperature model by combining empirical and mechanistic approaches, and evaluated the model in an agroecosystem and also a tallgrass prairie in the Great Plains. This model simulated soil temperatures on a daily basis from meteorological inputs of maximum and minimum air temperatures and soil and plant properties. The agroecosystem consisted of a no-till corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max Merr. (L)) rotation system. In the agroecosystem, the root mean square error of the modified model simulation varied from 1.41 to 2.05 oC for the four depths of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5 m beneath the surface. The mean absolute error varied from 1.06 to 1.53 oC. The root mean square error and mean absolute error of the modified model were about 0.1-0.3 oC less than the original model at the 0.2-0.5m depths. For the tallgrass prairie, the mean absolute errors of the simulated soil temperatures were slightly greater than the agroecosystem varying from 1.48-1.7 oC for all years and from 1.09-1.37 oC during the active growing seasons for all years. <br /> Advantages of this model are its relative simplicity using readily available daily temperature data. The new model can be incorporated into a larger crop model where soil temperatures are required. Given the applied nature of this hybrid model, it would be well suited to simulate soil temperatures in the first 50 cm of soil over a vegetated surface for processes related to soil respiration, soil organic matter decomposition and soil-borne pests.<br /> <br /> Kansas<br /> We have developed analyses of plant disease risk in the context of global change. As part of an international collaboration linking researchers in Latin America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Pacific Asia, we have evaluated key components of climate change analyses that should be considered in planning for climate change adaptation (Garrett et al. 2011). We have demonstrated the effects of temperature on disease resistance genes and their potential contributions to the durability of resistance (Webb et al. 2010). As part of a global analysis of potato late blight risk under climate change, we have developed a framework for applying disease risk models that require high resolution input in a broader range of scenarios (Sparks et al., in review). We have developed integrated analyses of risk that incorporate the range of factors important for small-scale farmers (Perez et al. 2010).<br /> We have evaluated disease ecology in tallgrass prairie and potential spill-over between agricultural and natural systems (Saleh et al. 2010). We have also characterized the distribution of a resistance gene homolog in the dominant grass species of tallgrass prairie (Rouse et al., in review). In a paper that was the Journal of Ecology Editors Choice for March 2010, we presented an analysis of variation in this dominant grass species in response to altered environmental conditions associated with climate change (Travers et al. 2010).<br /> We have interpreted risk factors involved in emerging plant diseases for a general audience (Garrett et al. 2010). We have published the first of a series of analyses of microbial communities using high-throughput sequencing techniques, in a comparison of soil communities and their response to tillage and crop rotation in Kansas (Yin et al. 2010).<br /> As part of our ongoing work in applying the R programming environment in plant disease ecology, we have reviewed a new text on the subject (Garrett 2010).<br /> Our work shows that crop models are useful tools in studying cropping system performance within a region. The results from the simulations will allow producers and policy makers to develop programs aimed at maintaining rural economic viability as ground water supplies decline and as warming and drying occurs. The coupling of a crop model, a soil drainage model, and an economic model resulted in initial evaluations of crop selection and irrigation practices on recharge in the Ogallala Aquifer. The addition of soil moisture sensors to the mesonet has expanded soil moisture monitoring efforts. <br /> <br /> Iowa<br /> The outputs described above resulted in changes in knowledge of stakeholders, agricultural economists, and field extension specialists. At the Iowa State University hosted one-day workshop, Global Climate Change and Its Impact on Food Production and Biofuels, an audience of agricultural thought leaders, including agribusiness representatives, individual producers, and agricultural associations, were informed on the following topics: (1) evidence of global climate change and implications of global climate projections for global crop production, (2) overview of uncertainties in climate model projections arising from poor representation of physical processes like thunderstorms and landscape heterogeneity, (3) overview of emerging developments in climate models and their projection ns, emphasizing the potential for outlooks with 10-year lead time, (4) analysis of the regional climate mechanisms that have prevented a warming trend in the Midwest annual temperature over the past 20 years, interpretation within the context of global change, and implications for crop productivity In May, an audience of ISU Extension Farm Management Field Specialists was provided a webinar presentation on climate change with follow-up discussion on implications for farm management. The presentation included information on the following: (1) In depth analysis of recent trends in maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation in Iowa, and explanation of causes for downward trend in growing season maximum temperature, (2) description of projected climate changes for the next 25 years in Iowa, including growing season length, precipitation, maximum/minimum temperature, humidity, and freeze/thaw cycles. In July through September, a series of eleven public outreach seminars targeted an audience of landowners, community leaders, and local government officials to discuss how Iowa communities and rural landowners can plan for future floods, with emphasis on land use choices and community development that can be made. The total number of attendees exceeded 800. The climate knowledge presented included the following: (1) recent increasing trend of high annual statewide precipitation and increasing trend of days with rainfall > 1.25" at many communities, (2) overview of the causes for rainfall increase: the low drought risk phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, warmer Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature, water holding capacity of Midwest soils, and (3) overview of the outlook of future flood risk: risk remains at recent levels for the next 10-15 years; an increased risk of drought in the subsequent 20-30-yr period with isolated days of rainfall exceeding even the rare events experienced recently. The subsequent discussion period often centered on an important implication for landowners of the continuation of high rainfall years and high number of high rainfall days within a year. The implication is they will have a growing need to manage surface runoff. The increased runoff from high rainfall days not only threatens soil quality for agricultural productivity but also increases flood risk.<br /> <br /> Michigan<br /> During 2010, significant progress was made in the simulation of two representative crops growing in the region, corn, and wheat, under historical and projected future climates. The simulations included areas within the region where agricultural activities historically have been limited by climatological and soil constraints, but which could become more favorable for agriculture in the future given a warmer climate. CERES-Maize and CERES-Wheat crop models, part of the Decision Support for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model software system were used for all simulations. Five locations across the Great Lakes region (1 in WI, 3 in MI, and 1 in NY) were chosen for the study on the basis of climatological series record length and homogeneity, as well as geographical coverage across the region and its major land use zones. The study was divided into two major categories; historical and future. Historical scenarios were based on observed daily weather data at each of the locations. The individual lengths of the data series ranged from 85-109 years and all but 1 of the series began prior to 1915. Daily solar radiation series were derived stochastically at each site with the WGEN synthetic weather generator. Climate model-derived scenarios developed for a previous research project for the period 19902099 were used to develop projected future weather scenarios for locations at or very near to each of the historical climate station sites. An ensemble of scenarios for each location was created by using simulations from four GCMs each driven with A2 and B2 SRES greenhouse gas emission scenarios, four different downscaling methods, and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, resulting in a total of 32 individual projected future scenarios per site, 1990-2099. In general, mean annual temperatures across the region warmed 2-6°C (relative to the 1990-2009 period) in the ensemble of projected future time series by the 2090-2099 decade. Projected annual precipitation totals in the ensembles generally remained in a range between 70-140 percent of the control period totals, with a slight overall average increase by the 2090-2099 decade.<br /> Regionally, low precipitation and moisture stress were chief limitations to simulated crop yields during the historical period. Simulated corn and wheat yield series were found to increase with time since the late 1930's at most of the study sites, largely the result of wetter, less stressful growing season weather conditions. In the projected future simulations, the warmer climate suggested by the GCMs led to some initial early-century increases in simulated non-CO2 enriched crop yields relative to historical yields. By late in the century, however, relative yield declines were found for most of the projected scenarios. With CO2 enrichment included, increases in simulated wheat yield were noted for most scenarios. Largest percentage increases in yield during 2010-2099 were found at northern locations. The ratios of the future scenarios with and without increases in CO2 concentration suggest that the majority of wheat yield increases during this period are due to CO2 enrichment.<br /> <br /> Missouri<br /> Missouri crop producers use the commercial agriculture automated weather station network and horizon point system to:<br /> "Improve fertilizer efficiency<br /> "Reduce applied pesticides<br /> "Make springtime planting decisions<br /> "Reduce spray drift<br /> "Plant crops at strategic times<br /> "Spray crops at strategic times<br /> "Practice prudent water mangement through irrigation scheduling tools<br /> <br /> Specifically, some outcomes derived from a survey given to horizon point participants include the following responses:<br /> <br /> " We do a lot of hay and this is handy in helping us look ahead to harvesting of the hay.<br /> <br /> " I advise farmers using these data for fall N applications. Farmers participating in federal and state incentive programs must follow<br /> <br /> " I used the rainfall information to make better informed decisions on when to irrigate this summer.<br /> <br /> " Make bin fan decisions based on bin drying estimates.<br /> <br /> " Look at all the pest scouting reports to see if I need to scout a little more than normal.<br /> <br /> " I like to check out the wind speed predictions as we do a lot of custom application and it helps me line out our work load.<br /> <br /> New York<br /> Our work has several impacts. In terms of fundamental understanding of the host-pathogen relationship, we have established that even very short periods of cold temperatures can alter the response of a host plant to attack by a host-specific pathogen. In this case we hypothesize that the cold actually causes a generalized stress response that is manifest as implementation of generalized resistance. The molecular mechanisms of this response should provide new insight into stress responses by plants. For growers, this new information can mean better prediction of disease development by incorporation of the effect of acute cold events. Finally, for climate researchers, this work presents a challenge in assessing the impact of climate change on plant disease development. If very short periods of punctuated cold can elicit a defense response from a crop plant, how will climate models and assessments account for this effect when predicted weather conditions are only expressed in very general (average) terms? <br /> North Dakota<br /> Relationships between long term change in growing degree units and yield forecast has been studied. Improved yield forecasts will improve marketability of crops and ultimately lead to better economic decision-making based on better information. The North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network implemented an irrigation scheduler with which farmers can create a field on a GIS based map. Our interface would collect soil data. Farmers can read the amount of water needed once the type of crop is selected. It saves money and water. Better decision-making for irrigation will improve profitability for farmers using irrigation. It will improve the use efficiency of a scarce commodity. We developed herbicide timing and pesticide applications in North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN). This will allow more efficient use of pesticides and herbicides and hopefully limit overuse of chemical application. The NDAWN system records hourly atmospheric moisture conditions. Atmospheric moisture information will provide improved understanding of moisture conditions in spatial and temporal detail, which are necessary for improved disease forecasts and ultimately more precise use of chemicals and improved profitability. The NDAWN system records hourly temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, atmospheric moisture, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure, soil temperature at 4 inch depth for bare soil and turf. Better access to weather and soils data, in combination with crop yield histories for model testing, will result in improved crop model capabilities.

Publications

Impact Statements

1. Determined the potential impacts of climate change on wheat, sorghum, maize and soybean at various locations in the region
2. Have continued to evaluate the impacts of environment on plant and disease responses in the region

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Report Information

Participants

Brief Summary of Minutes

Accomplishments

" Overview of action items<br /> a. Objective 1<br /> i. Not sure if it is the role of this committee to maintain the database<br /> ii. Probably last updated in 2004 or 2005<br /> iii. Discussion about how to update the database (currently it covers only NC states, should be updated to 2010)<br /> iv. Consensus was that regional climate centers should be involved<br /> v. Agreed to work on updating the database<br /> Jeff Andresen, Patrick Guinan, Karen Garrett, Mickey Ransom (soils)<br /> vi. Discussed publishing the database in an ESA publication designed for publishing data sets<br /> vii. Jeff Andresen will do a follow-up e-mail about the current status of the database<br /> viii. Goal  update the dataset this year<br /> ix. Chris Anderson will prepare a short summary of existing and soon to be released climate projections that could be used by project members<br /> b. Objective 2<br /> i. Discussed adding other variables to the database<br /> 1. Leaf wetness duration: Clyde Fraisse, Jeff Andresen, Karen Garrett, and Bob Seem agreed to work on this project<br /> ii. Discussion about the need for adding an economist to the project<br /> 1. Need an economist who knows how to make projections about land use<br /> 2. Jeff Andresen will pursue the possibility of finding an economist at Michigan State University<br /> c. Objective 3<br /> i. Karen Garrett discussed the possibility of using Big Bluestem instead of switchgrass as a bioenergy crop<br /> ii. She is already doing some preliminary simulation work<br /> iii. Jeff Andresen and Clyde Fraisse are probably the most active in working on this objective<br /> iv. Also Ken Boote may be involved<br /> v. Suggestion was to link names with the various objectives<br /> vi. Scott Staggenborg is doing extensive work on Objective 3b<br /> d. Objective 4<br /> i. Requires much thought as to the potential users<br /> ii. Discussed the possible need for an entomologist and weed scientist to work on the project<br /> " Leadership and officer elections <br /> o The establishment of a leadership committee composed by three or four project members was discussed<br /> o Moved, seconded, and passed to form an Executive Committee consisting of a Secretary, Chair Elect, Chair, and Past-Chair<br /> o Karen Garrett has been nominated as incoming Secretary<br /> o Moved and seconded to elect Karen as Secretary<br /> o Motion passed so Karen will start as Secretary at the next annual meeting<br /> o The Executive Committee will consist of Dennis Todey (Past Chair), Adnan Akyuz (Chair), Clyde Fraisse (Current Secretary and In-coming Chair), and Karen Garrett (In-coming Secretary)<br /> o Mike Schmitt stressed the need to document our cooperation with other groups.<br /> o Discussion of Appendix E<br /> o Discussion of the cultivar updates that were assigned at the annual meeting last year<br /> § Wheat  Perry Miller<br /> § Forage sorghum  Scott Staggenborg<br /> § Soybean and corn  Gerrit Hoogenboom<br /> § Agreed that the Executive Committee would follow up and determine if new assignments need to be made<br /> o Thanks to Christopher Anderson for the meeting arrangements<br /> o Executive Committee will send out an email message to schedule time and location for next annual meeting<br /> o Suggested that the Secretary develop a list of Action Items to send out to the committee membership<br /> <br /> <br /> Summary of action Items<br /> <br /> 1. Jeff Andresen will do a follow-up e-mail about the current status of the database<br /> 2. This update will be followed by a conference call to discuss how to proceed on updating the database<br /> 3. Clyde Fraisse, Jeff Andresen, Karen Garrett, and Bob Seem will work on how to incorporate leaf wetness to the database<br /> 4. Chris Anderson will prepare a short summary of existing and soon to be released climate projections that could be used by project members<br /> 5. Jeff Andresen will pursue the possibility of finding an economist at Michigan State University<br /> 6. Doodle schedule for next annual meeting<br /> <br /> <br />

Publications

Publications:<br /> Feng S., F. Salvagiotti, M.R. Schmer, A.B. Wingeyer and A. Weiss, 2010: Evaluating a hybrid soil temperature model in a corn-soybean agroecosystem and a tallgrass prairie in the Great Plains. Great Plains Research 20, 249-260.<br /> <br /> K. A. Garrett, G. A. Forbes, S. Savary, P. Skelsey, A. H. Sparks, C. Valdivia, A. H. C. van Bruggen, L. Willocquet, A. Djurle, E. Duveiller, H. Eckersten, S. Pande, C. Vera Cruz, and J. Yuen. 2011. Complexity in climate change impacts: A framework for analysis of effects mediated by plant disease. Plant Pathology 60:15-30. <br /> <br /> K. A. Garrett. 2010. Review of A Practical Guide to Ecological Modelling. Using R as a Simulation Platform by Soetaert and Herman. Quarterly Review of Biology 85:492. <br /> <br /> K. A. Garrett, A. Jumpponen, and L. Gomez Montano. 2010. Emerging plant diseases: What are our best strategies for management? Pages 152-160 in Controversies in Science and Technology, Vol. 3, From Evolution to Energy. Editors E. L. Kleinman, J. A. Delborne, K. A. Cloud-Hansen, and J. Handelsman. Liebert Publishers, New Rochelle, New York.<br /> <br /> C. Perez, C. Nicklin, O. Dangles, S. Vanek, S. Sherwood, S. Halloy, K. Garrett, and G. Forbes. 2010. Climate change in the High Andes: Implications and adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers. The International Journal of Environmental, Cultural, Economic and Social Sustainability 6:71-88. <br /> <br /> M. N. Rouse, A. A. Saleh, A. Seck, K. H. Keeler, S. E. Travers, S. H. Hulbert, and K. A. Garrett. Genomic and resistance gene homolog diversity of the dominant tallgrass prairie species, Andropogon gerardii, across the Central U.S. precipitation gradient. In review.<br /> <br /> A. A. Saleh, H. U. Ahmed, T. C. Todd, S. E. Travers, K. A. Zeller, J. F. Leslie, and K. A. Garrett. 2010. Relatedness of Macrophomina phaseolina isolates from tallgrass prairie, maize, soybean, and sorghum. Molecular Ecology 19:79-91. <br /> <br /> A. H. Sparks, G. A. Forbes, R. J. Hijmans, and K. A. Garrett. A metamodeling framework to expand the application range of ecological models. In review.<br /> <br /> S. E. Travers, Z. Tang, D. Caragea, K. A. Garrett, S. H. Hulbert, J. E. Leach, J. Bai, A. Saleh, A. K. Knapp, P. A. Fay, J. Nippert, P. S. Schnable, and M. D. Smith. 2010. Variation in gene expression of Andropogon gerardii in response to altered environmental conditions associated with climate change. Journal of Ecology 98:374-383. <br /> <br /> K. M. Webb, I. Oña, J. Bai, K. A. Garrett, T. Mew, C. M. Vera Cruz, and J. E. Leach. 2010. A benefit of high temperature: Increased effectiveness of a rice bacterial blight disease resistance gene. New Phytologist 185:568-576.<br /> <br /> C. Yin, K. L. Jones, D. E. Peterson, K. A. Garrett, S. H. Hulbert, and T. C. Paulitz. 2010. Members of soil bacterial communities sensitive to tillage and crop rotation. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 42:2111-2118.<br /> <br /> Bulatewicz, T., Yang, X., Peterson, J. M., Staggenborg, S., Welch, S. M., and Steward, D. R. 2010. Accessible integration of agriculture, groundwater, and economic models using the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI): methodology and initial results, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 521-534, 2010.<br /> Holman, J., J. Moyer, and S. Maxwell. 2010. Switchgrass establishment, iron chlorosis, and biomass yield in southwest and southeast Kansas. Forage and Grazinglands.<br /> <br /> Holman, J., C. Thompson, R. Hale, and A. Schlegel. 2010. Forage yield and nutritive value of hard red and hard white winter wheat. Agronomy Journal. 102(2):759-773.<br /> <br /> Presley, D.R., P.E. Hartley, and M.D. Ransom. 2010. Mineralogy and morphological properties of buried polygenetic paleosols formed in Late Quaternary sediments on upland landscapes of the Central Plains, USA. Geoderma 154:508-517.<br /> <br /> Propheter, J.L., and S.A. Staggenborg. 2010. Performance of annual and perennial biofuel crops: Nutrient removal during the first two years. Agron. J. 102:798-805.<br /> <br /> Propheter, J.L., S.A. Staggenborg, X Wu, and D. Wang. 2010. Performance of annual and perennial biofuel crops: Yields during the first two years. Agron. J. 102:806-814.<br /> <br /> Takle E. S., 2010: Climate Changes in Iowa, in Climate Change Impacts on Iowa 2010: Report to the Governor and General Assembly. (http://www.water.iastate.edu/Documents/CompleteReport,%20final.pdf)<br /> <br /> Anderson C. J., Beck L., Bolkcom J., Enshayan K., Haliburton J., Harter L., Hempen D., Hubbard S., Josten S. J., Mellick M. B., Micheel B., Morrissey L., Schoon B., Taylor G., and Todd A., 2010: Iowa Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Report. Environmental Protection Agency (available by request from cjames@iastate.edu)<br /> <br /> Kim, K.S., Taylor, S.E., Gleason, M.L., Coop, L.B., Pfender, W.F., Seem, R.C., Sentelhas, P.C., Gillespie, T.J., Dalla Marta, A., and Orlandini, S. 2010. Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration. Ag. For. Meteorol. 150:871-880. <br /> Moyer, M.M., Gadoury, D.M., Cadle-Davidson, L., Dry, I.B., Wilcox, W.F., and Seem, R.C. 2010. Effects of acute low temperature events on development of Erysiphe necator and susceptibility of Vitis vinifera. Phytopathology. 100:1240-1249.<br /> <br /> Badh, A., and F. A. Akyuz, 2010. Studying Climate Change and Precipitation Trends for North Dakota, United States. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses 2(2):97-108. <br /> <br /> Badh, A., and F. A. Akyuz, 2010. Evaluating Trend Changes in Annual Accumulated Growing Degree Days for Corn Grown in the Northern Plains, United States of America. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses 2(2):127-136.<br /> <br /> Badh, A., F. A. Akyuz, G. Vocke, and B. Mullins. 2009. Impact of Climate Change on the Growing Seasons in Select Cities of North Dakota, United States of America. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses. 1(1):105-117.<br /> <br /> Holman, J., C. Thompson, R. Hale, and A. Schlegel. 2010. Forage yield and nutritive value of hard red and hard white winter wheat. Agronomy Journal. 102(2):759-773.<br />

Impact Statements

1. Long term data has been analyzed for trends in temperature and frost free dates.
2. Risk factors for emerging diseases have been developed that can be used for climate change scenarios
3. Future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 SRES) were developed and used as inputs into CERES-Maize and Wheat crop simulation models to evaluate the impact of climate change on crop production

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Report Information

Participants

Brief Summary of Minutes

Please see attached "Copy of Minutes" file for NC1179's full annual report.

Accomplishments

Publications

Impact Statements

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Report Information

Participants

Brief Summary of Minutes

Please see attached "Copy of Minutes" file for NC1179's 2012/2013 annual report.

Accomplishments

Publications

Impact Statements

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