Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

President's Room, Radisson Hotel, Minneapolis, MN February 27-28th, 2006 Meeting was called to order by Dennis Todey at 8:30 a.m., February 27. Daryl then volunteered to act as secretary for the duration of the meeting. Dennis discussed the formation of a nominating committee to pick next year's officers. Stuart and Rich agreed to be on this committee and present their nominations during the business meeting Tuesday morning. Dennis discussed the formation of a location committee to pick the location of our next meeting. Gerrit, Scott, and Stuart agreed to look into it. It was agreed to discuss this more during the business meeting on Tuesday. Dennis mentioned the conference call scheduled for Tuesday morning. Forrest Chumley, Jeff Andreson, and Bart Freeland were mentioned as being in on this call. Dennis would follow up further with the new CEREES adviser to see if he could join the call as well. Dennis brought up discussion on changing the terms of the executive positions. It was discussed to extend the appointment to a 2 year term with the secretary continuing to roll into the chair position after the 2nd year. It was noted that this would involve a 4 year commitment of the secretary and perhaps this was too long. It was discussed that perhaps the secretary position would not roll into the chair position. The chair entertained a motion to move to 2 year terms for the chair, an annual term for the secretary and to discontinue the ascension of secretary into chair. Stuart moved and Scott seconded. No discussion and the motion passed by voice vote. New members where then discussed. Questions were asked about the exact procedure to get new members in. This would be asked of Forrest during the conference call on Tuesday. It was noted to make sure the new members were listed on the appendix. Dong noted that University of Minnesota would be picking up the cost of the conference room and perhaps the conference call on Tuesday. With that, introductory talks were given by committee members. Stuart, Scott, Rich, Gerrit, Ken, David, Bob, Dong, Pat, Daryl, and Dennis presented. It was discussed to perhaps send the power point presentations to Daryl for inclusion on a website? Some of the members handed out copies of their research reports. Dennis brought up the importance of including all of the presented material in the mid term reports that will be due soon. It is important to include grant monies that may not directly relate with 1018, but include the use of NC1018 derived datasets. We should ask Forrest about this more in the morning. Mickey proposed that we have some sort of standard format for our reports. Discussion was had about the geographic coverage of our group. Should we look to expand west? It was pointed out that confining ourselves to a particular region is probably not required. It is natural for an active group to look to bring more energetic folks in. Groups tend to be more topically organized than geographical. Stuart then presented information on the atlas. The atlas is a contiguous dataset for the 1055 counties in the north central region. It is an important dataset to support modeling over the area. The need to place this information on a website is becoming apparent. There also needs to be clear meta data and scientific interpretation available on the site as well. A copy of the atlas was given to a few external folks for review and their comments are appreciated. The question of financial support for placing the atlas on the website was discussed. Clearly this is something that can't just be done without money to support someone to spend quality time on the effort. Someone would also need to write the descriptions for the website. The issue of our research funding model was discussed. This was something that would need further discussion with Forrest. Discussion was made on shepherding the NC1018 dataset. Clearly we need to work together and make sure everyone has a copy of the latest and greatest data. Having a website would probably help with this process. Stuart mentioned talking with Steve Hollinger about getting some meta data for how some of the datasets were created. It was mentioned if NCDC or the climate centers would be interested in storing this dataset. Perhaps they could provide the small amounts of funding to expand the domain. Steve Hollinger's phenology database was discussed. Some states don't have a copy of it. It was discussed to talk with Steve about it. A question was asked if a dataset of reported events was maintained on the county level. Previous efforts to accomplish this were noted with little success also noted. The dataset doesn't appear to exist. The agenda for the conference call was discussed. Topics to be addressed:  Tell Forrest about what we have been doing as a committee.  Inform Forrest that we have switched to a 2 year appointment for the chair.  Raise concerns over the funding model.  Ask about the process to include new members or states. Further discussion was had about other research ideas. Irrigation decision support was mentioned along with Carlson's aridity index. The need for real time versus historical tools was also discussed. The need for an economist to join our group was mentioned. Dennis mentioned a lady at SDSU that could be interested. Meeting was adjourned for the day at 5:10 PM. The meeting reconvened at 8:15 a.m., February 28. Meeting started with a discussion of the conference call and other items relating to the business meeting. The nominating committee approached Mickey to serve as secretary and Bob as chair. Both members agreed and their nomination was accepted by the group with no decent. Meeting location and time was discussed. It was noted that having a meeting in between semesters is probably not a good idea, since that is usually a busy time at the University. It was noted that a Monday meeting may be a bad idea, since some folks don't like to travel on the weekends. Everyone agreed that no time/place will accommodate everyone. It was mentioned to have Daryl send out an email to the list detailing how the email list works. Daryl would also make sure that everyone is on it, including Carl Bernaki (sp) from Illinois. The topic of new members was discussed. New members should just talk with the AES director to get approval. Nothing more should be necessary. More discussion was had on where to have the meeting next year. Conference call.  Forrest Chumley, Bart Freeland, Brian Slater, Dev Nygan (sp) joined the discussion. Some trouble was encountered getting the conference call set up, but technical issues were resolved.  Forrest presented his report. He commended the committee on its progress and working together. He reminded members to review Appendix I on the regional website. Members are encouraged to show linkages in their reports. Mentioning individual grants in these reports are relevant. Members should also mention any technology or data transfer. Be sure to mention impacts and how they address research objectives. We need to submit the SAES 422 form. He recommended the 2 year term for the executive positions. He said the midterm report could be turned in shortly after a midterm meeting in October.  Forrest was asked about new members. Approval of Experiment station director and approval of the committee is all that is needed.  Forrest was asked about geographical expansion of our committee. He noted that any successful committee will naturally grow and include others. It is a positive thing. He noted how well the special session at the ASA meeting was attended.  Forrest was asked about the status of multi-state research. He mentioned that the current thought was to make the process competitive with a similar amount of dollars available. The time line of this was uncertain with issues remaining in congress. At this time, there is no concern about the elimination of the funding.  Forrest was asked if there is money floating around for work to be done with the atlas. Dennis mentioned sending a proposal to the E-extension effort. Forrest mentioned the importance of having the atlas on line with a number of query features available to the user. He would like to see it as a tool for research and policy directors. He mentioned Bob talking with the AES directors and that the directors have a small pool of funds to do something. Forrest said this amount may be 2,500 dollars, but later discussion seemed to think this was 25,000 dollars.  Stuart asked about opportunities to do carbon research. It was generally agreed that our committee should look into such matters.  Bart Freeland talked about making sure states that have soil temperature data to please send him a copy for publication in the weekly crop bulletin.  Dennis mentioned repacking a submission to the E-extension RFP. Others agreed to help out.  It was stressed that all members should have their reports ready before the October meeting. Mickey emailed out a format that others could follow.  Could the atlas be on a website by October? Perhaps, but funding was needed for this effort. After the call, a number of issues were discussed. Bob will look into accessing this small pot of money that apparently exists with the AES directors. A plethora of issues were discussed. Including soil databases. The SCAN network and its data. The need for PAN evaporation data. Risk management and yield research. A discussion on where to have the next meeting was had. The two locations most prominently mentioned were Lincoln, NE and Kansas City, MO. Nothing definite was decided. It was mentioned that a subset of committee members could meet to discuss smaller issues and that there are funds for that. Meeting adjourned by Dennis at approximately 10:30 a.m. Minutes submitted by Daryl Herzmann.

Georgia Investigators: Gerrit Hoogenboom and David Stooksbury Project Report: It is common practice to use crop simulation models and long-term weather data to study the impact of climate variability on yield. Thus, the simulated yield mainly reflects the weather variability but not the adoption of new technologies. Therefore, long-term observed yield data, if available, cannot be readily used for evaluation of crop models. The objectives of this study were to analyze the impact of climate variability on long-term simulated peanut yields and to assess the applicability of using long-term average county yield determined from statistical estimates for evaluation of the simulated yield. Observed yields obtained from State variety trials and yield estimates obtained from the USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) for three counties in the Georgia peanut belt from 1934 to 2003 were used for evaluating the simulated yield series. Simulated yields based on the CSM-CROPGRO-Peanut model were categorized into three technological periods (TP). A weighted average based on the acreage of the soil type, the peanut type, and the irrigated land in each county was calculated to obtain a unique simulated yield. Then yields and weather data of the 70-year period were grouped with respect to El Niño Southern Oscillation phases, and TPs. The Pearson's coefficient of correlation, the LSD, and the t test were used to evaluate the results. The simulated yields clearly reflected the seasonal variability in weather. The NASS yield estimates were adequate to assess simulated yields for the 70-year, but failed to reflect the weather variability at the beginning of the period. The results from this study showed that crop models can be a useful tool to help understand the inter-annual variation of yield due to climate variability if appropriate adjustments are made to account for changes and improvements in agrotechnology. Indiana Investigator: Richard H. Grant Project Report: Two derived variables were worked on during 2005: solar ultraviolet-A (UV-A) and canopy wetness. The estimation of ultraviolet-A radiation across the earths surface is needed to model plant productivity and future impacts of ultraviolet-B radiation to plant productivity. We have evaluated the quality of broadband UV-A irradiance measurements within a UV climate monitoring network in the USA and developed a model to estimate the UV-A irradiance from measurements of the global spectral irradiance at 368-nm. The model was developed from ½ hour interval measurements made during 2000 at three locations across the United States and evaluated from ½ hour measurements made during 2000 through 2002 at seven locations. The stability of the UV-A irradiance sensors across the two year period was evaluated by comparison of changes in UV-A sensor response to changes in 368 nm AOD across years on the same (+/-3) day referenced to the change in UV-A response to changes in 368 nm AOD on sequential days during 2000. Most of the seven UV-A sensors installed during 1999 and 2000 appear to have remained stable (within detectable bounds) through 2004. UV-A irradiance was modeled using measured global 368-nm irradiance and empirical functions defining UV-A and 368-nm irradiance relationships derived from a radiative transfer model. The theoretical pseudo two stream discrete ordinates radiative transfer model provided baseline irradiance relationships between UV-A irradiance and 368-nm spectral irradiance. The model estimated the UV-A irradiance at seven locations across the USA with a mean bias error of 0.5 W m-2 and a root mean squared error of 1.5 W m-2. The model error was comparable to the combined effect of previously-estimated UV-A and 368-nm irradiance measurement errors but greater than that of the UV-A sensor alone. Kansas Investigators: Staggenborg, S. and M. Ransom Project Report: This project uses crop simulation models to examine the impacts of cropping systems within the 10 states of the North Central Region. Since a systems approach is the desired variable to examine, DSSAT 4.0 is used to simulate the appropriate cropping systems throughout the region. Previous work was completed using only corn and soybean simulations on three soils in three selected counties in each state. This approach is limited because the corn-soybean rotation, which dominates much of the eastern two-thirds of the region, does not represent the western portion of the region where irrigated agriculture and diverse dryland cropping systems occur. As a result, a different approach will be taken during the next phase of our project. The USDA has subdivided the US into Major Land Resource Areas (MLRAs). Approximately, 50 MLRAs of variable size are encompassed within the 10 states of the North Central Region. Simulations will be conducted on three cropping systems, where applicable, on the three predominant soil series for each MLRA. Soils will be identified using the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) database for each state. Soil physical properties to be used for simulations will then be selected from the NRCS Soil Survey Laboratory Database. Historic weather data will be selected from a location within each MLRA in order to maintain uniform coverage of the region. Michigan Investigators: Stuart Gage, Gene Safir, Jeff Andresen Project Report: Agricultural production is a highly dynamic process intimately linked to management strategy, and climate. Agricultural systems managed using the principles of ecology, have a better chance of sustaining the productivity of the land and sustaining the ecological services derived from harvesting the crops. We have examined the regional characteristics of the agricultural production system in Michigan and the North Central Region. We have continued to develop the Modeling Applications Integrative Framework (MASIF) to process the large amounts of spatial-temporal outputs from regional scale simulation experiments. We have pursued two levels of utilization of MASIF for supporting regional analyses. One level was to incorporate models that project carbon outputs directly into MASIF, and to utilize it as a primary geospatial data I/O and data analysis platform. The second level is the development of procedures to couple model output streams from geospatial simulation models to the MASIF system. This system enables comparison of model outputs with observed data (e.g. remotely sensed information, agricultural yield statistics), cross-model comparisons and evaluations and to utilize the powerful suite of data analysis and visualization capabilities incorporated in MASIF. Another aspect of our research has been to develop a socio-ecological and geographical analysis of agriculture conducted aimed toward development of a tool for policy and planning for sustainable agriculture. This research links geographical and ecological systems to the social domains of production agriculture. This will contribute to the conceptual and practical aspects of sustainable agriculture including contributions to multi-disciplinary studies, and mission-based policy-making at local, state and regional levels. We have applied the principles of geographic information science as a basis for developing a holistic framework for an integrated socio-ecological analysis of agricultural sustainability. We have constructed a spatial database by acquiring, processing, and maintaining selected sets of ecological, agricultural, socio-economic, and demographic information. Research Activities: " Simulation of carbon sequestration in the North Central Region " Analysis of climate characteristics of the North Central Regional Climate Database " Further development of a Modeling Applications Integrative Framework " Incorporation of the SOCRATES carbon simulation model into MASIF Minnesota Investigator: Wang, D. Project Report: The watershed modeling project has finished the second year of data collection for model validation purposes. One of the main focuses of the modeling project was to evaluate changing precipitation regimes (i.e. rainfall frequency, intensity, and annual mean) as a result of global climate change on terrestrial and aquatic N and P balances. Flow and water quality samples were measured at the lower Tamarack river watershed. Significant progress was also made in modeling. The SWAT model was calibrated with 18 years of USGS data and validated with the last 2 years data from the field measurements. Based on the lower Tamarack data, a paper was presented at the fall AGU meeting in San Francisco, CA. Missouri Investigators: Patrick Guinan and J. Travlos Project Report: Support from the University of Missouris Integrated Pest Management program and technological advancements in wireless communication have provided the opportunity to bring real-time weather conditions via the Internet to 10 more weather stations in the Commercial Agriculture Automated Weather Station network. With real-time weather the level of application increases significantly. For example, real-time weather provides the latest wind conditions for spray applicators. Drift is an issue in Missouri with the Missouri Department of Agricultures Pesticide Bureau receiving about a dozen reported drift complaints annually. Additionally, agricultural producers access the latest soil temperature data to aid in spring time planting decisions or autumn application of anhydrous ammonia. Health hazard information is also provided for farmers with livestock. Other benefits derived from real-time weather include the ability to monitor the latest temperature trends during periods when vegetation becomes vulnerable to extreme or sub-freezing temperatures and using real-time relative humidity information for baling decisions. Research Activities: " Paper birch decline in the Niobrara Valley: Interactions of weather, microclimate and genetics New York Investigator: Robert Seem Project Report: Disease forecasts are usually generated from irregularly dispersed weather stations. We developed a system to simulate local-scale, high-resolution weather and plant disease which incorporates a simplified mesoscale boundary layer model for the estimation of local air temperature and RH. The system also integrates models for surface wetness duration and special disease forecast, can incorporate current upper air conditions for true weather forecasts, or it can recreate weather forecasts utilizing a 55-yr database. Maximum horizontal resolution of 150m was achieved by running 5-step nested child grids inside coarse mother grids. The system simulated several growing seasons to drive the DMCast model, and thereby estimate the risk of grape downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) with 333m resolution in two regions of NY. Outputs were represented as maps or as graphs for specific locations. While resolution is greatest over North America, the system is functional globally and may be useful for site selection and reanalysis of historical epidemics. Investigator: Dennis Todey Project Report: Dr. Todey and S. Hosamane (graduate student) completed an irrigation forecast study where operational National Weather Service forecast information was used to forecast potential evapotranspiration (PET) out to three days in advance for three locations in South Dakota. These forecasts were compared to PET values based on observed data at these locations. The forecasts were able to correctly predict potential evapotranspiration for corn, soybean, and alfalfa with correlations ranging from 0.3 to 0.8 up to two days in advance across the state. Several members of the NC-1018 committee (including J. Andresen, G. Hoogenboom) and a collaborator at ISU (D. Herzmann) wrote a proposal to an eXtension call for engagement to leverage previous committee work and database development. The goal of the proposal was to use existing committee-collected data and committee expertise to directly aid producers in decision-making through eXtension. The proposal was not funded. Dr. Todey wrote a proposal ($25,000) to be submitted to the NCR committee for assistance in publishing a regional county-level ag climate atlas. This paper copy will be printed and distributed throughout the region. The proposal was accepted. Review of the atlas is under way for final publishing to be completed in 2006. Additional database work was done to update county-level information and correct errors in the database. These data will be developed into an interactive web site for any user to view pictures or collect raw county level data. For a paper presented at the American Association of Applied Climatology conference, presented results confirming the relationship between corn and soybean production and yield. Correlations between growing season precipitation and yield on a county basis were 0.5 to 0.8 for the western corn belt of eastern South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. In contrast additional precipitation in the eastern corn belt was found to hinder yield where correlations were negative reaching as much as -0.5 in some counties. As part of the effort to develop new climatologies for agriculture, Dr. Todey completed a collaborative project to develop an evaporation climatology and maps across the South Dakota. These activities are proposed to be expanded over the Upper Midwest.

Abrahamson, D.A., D.E. Radcliffe, J.L. Steiner, M.L. Cabrera, J.D. Hanson, K.W. Rojas, H.H. Schomberg, D.S. Fisher, L. Schwartz, and G. Hoogenboom. 2005. Calibration of the Root Zone Water Quality Model for simulating tile drainage and leached nitrate in the Georgia Piedmont. Agronomy Journal 96(6):1584-1602. Colunga-Garcia M., P.R. Grace, S.H. Gage, G.P. Robertson, G.R. Safir. 2005. Urbanization and its Impact on the Carbon Sequestration Potential of Agroecosystems in the North Central Region. Third USDA Symposium on Greenhouse Gases & Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Forestry, March 21 - 24, 2005, Baltimore, MD. Gage, S.H., M. Colunga-Garcia, P.R. Grace, H. Yang, G.R. Safir, G.P. Robertson, A. Shortridge, A Prasla, A. Ali, S. Del Grosso, P. Wilkins, S. Rowshan. 2005. A Modeling Application Integrative Framework for Regional Simulation of Crop Productivity, Carbon Sequestration and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Third USDA Symposium on Greenhouse Gases & Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Forestry, March 21 - 24, 2005, Baltimore, MD. Garcia y Garcia, A., and G. Hoogenboom. 2005. Evaluation of an improved daily solar radiation generator for the southeastern USA. Climate Research 29:91-102. Grace, P.R., S.H. Gage, M. Colunga-Garcia, G.P. Robertson, G.R. Safir. 2005. Maximizing Net Carbon Sequestration in Agroecosystems of the North Central Region. Third USDA Symposium on Greenhouse Gases & Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Forestry, March 21 - 24, 2005, Baltimore, MD. Grant, R.H. and J.R. Slusser. 2005. Estimation of ultraviolet-A irradiance from measurements of 368-nm spectral irradiance. J. Atmos. & Ocean. Technology 22: 2853-2863. Grant, R.H. and J.R. Slusser. 2005. The measurement and modeling of broadband UV-A irradiance. In: G. Bernhard, J.R. Slusser, J.R. Herman and W. Gao, Eds., Symposium on UV Ground- and Space-based Measurements, Model, and Effects V, Proceedings of SPIE Vol. 5886. Green, M., Wang, D., Murphy, M., and J. Almendinger. 2005. Sensitivity of simulated stream water N and P concentrations and N:P ratios to precipitation regimes in a central Minnesota watershed. Eos Trans. AGU, 86(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H31B-1302, 2005 AGU winter meeting, San Francisco, CA. Guerra, L.C., G. Hoogenboom, J.E. Hook, D.L. Thomas, V.K. Boken, and K.A. Harrison. 2005. Evaluation of the model EPIC for simulating on-farm irrigation applications. Irrigation Science 23:171-181. Gunal, H., and M.D. Ransom. In press. Genesis and micromorphology of loess-derived soils from central Kansas. Catena. Gunal, H., and M.D. Ransom. 2005. Clay mineralogy, specific surface area and micromorphology of polygenetic soils from eastern Kansas. Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science 51:459-468. Hoogenboom, G. 2005. 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Archival precipitation data set for the Mississippi river basin: evaluation. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L19403,doi:10.1029/2005GL023334. Olson, K.R., T.E. Fenton, N.E. Smeck, R.D. Hammer, M.D. Ransom, C.W. Zanner, R. McLeese, and M.T. Sucik. 2005. Identification, mapping, classification, and interpretation of eroded Mollisols in the U.S. Midwest. Soil Survey Horizons 46:23-35. Olson, K.R., T.E. Fenton, N.E. Smeck, R.D. Hammer, M.D. Ransom, C.W. Zanner, R. McLeese, and M.T. Sucik. 2005. Proposed modifications of mollic epipedon thickness criteria for eroded conditions and potential impacts on existing soil classifications. Soil Survey Horizons 46:39-47. Seem, R.C. 2004. Forecasting Plant Disease in a Changing Climate: A Question of Scale. Can. J. Plant Pathol. 26:274-283. Staggenborg, S.A., and R.L. Vanderlip. 2005. Crop Simulation Models Can be Used as Dryland Cropping Systems Research Tools. Agron. J. In Press. Todey, D.P. and C. Shukla, 2005. 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