SAES-422 Multistate Research Activity Accomplishments Report

Status: Approved

Basic Information

Participants

Alecia Evans, University of Wyoming Amila Hadziomerspahic, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Ashley Lowe Mackenzie, Oregon State University Ben Gramig, U.S. Department of Agriculture Cade White, Oregon State University Chen-Ti Chen, The Ohio State University Corey Lang, University of Rhode Island Craig Landry, University of Georgia Dale Manning, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville David Roberts, North Dakota State University Frank Lupi, Michigan State University George Parsons, University of Delaware Hosung Nam, University of Georgia Jacob Gellman, Oregon State University Jarron Vanceylon, Bowdoin College Jayna Mallon, Colorado State University Jerrod Penn, Louisiana State University Jesse Burkhardt, Colorado State University Jose Sanchez, U.S. Forest Service Jude Bayham, Colorado State University Kaylee Wells, University of Delaware Kirsten Oleson, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Lusi Xie, University of Georgia Lynne Lewis, Colorado State University Matthew Sloggy, U.S. Forest Service Meredith Fowlie, University of California, Berkeley Nicole Karwowski, Montana State University Paul Johnson, Utah State University Robert Johnston, Clark University Roger von Haefen, North Carolina State University Ruivaldo Viana, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Sonja Kolstoe, U.S. Forest Service Steven J. Dundas, Oregon State University Yining Wu, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Zac Pond, University of California, Berkeley Lee Parton, Boise State University Devon Casper, Boise State University

Accomplishments

Accomplishments

During the 2025-2026 reporting year, W5133 participants advanced research, outreach, and decision-support activities under all three project objectives: evaluating natural resource management decisions and climate-related welfare impacts; advancing economic valuation methods; and integrating valuation into policy and management. The committee produced journal articles, working papers, reports, datasets, survey instruments, field and laboratory experiments, extension materials, stakeholder presentations, and decision-support tools. Work during the year generated measurable short-term outcomes for land, water, agriculture, forest, wildlife, recreation, and hazard-management stakeholders, including welfare estimates, cost estimates, grant-funded tools, agency briefings, and applied datasets that are already being used by public agencies and conservation organizations.

Objective 1: Evaluate natural resource management decisions and the effects of climate change to understand associated welfare impacts

Committee members made substantial progress in quantifying how management decisions, climate change, and natural hazards affect welfare across agricultural land, forests, water resources, recreation, and rural communities. Activities under this objective included assembling new linked administrative and environmental datasets, estimating revealed and stated preference models, conducting laboratory and field experiments, developing conservation targeting models, and translating results for agency and stakeholder audiences.

Several projects measured the economic consequences of climate-related hazards. Oregon State University research used millions of campground reservation records linked to wildfire, smoke, air pollution, and temperature data to estimate the recreation welfare effects of wildfire smoke and extreme temperature. The wildfire smoke study estimated losses of $107 per person per trip, with approximately 21.5 million western U.S. outdoor recreation visits affected by smoke annually and annual welfare losses of about $2.3 billion. Related work on extreme temperature found seasonal and regional heterogeneity in recreation welfare effects, with projected net welfare gains in some western settings but losses depending on site, season, and recreationists' ability to anticipate climate conditions. Oregon State work also examined homeowners' insurance markets and wildfire risk pricing, documenting how information differences across insurers can raise prices or limit service in high-risk areas. Additional research estimated the welfare costs of hurricane evacuation using hurricane, flooding, evacuation-order, and mobile-device movement data, showing that evacuation costs are an important and previously undermeasured component of hurricane policy analysis.

Colorado State University and University of Tennessee researchers, working with NOAA and other collaborators, advanced research on inland flooding. Activities included constructing a county-quarter panel linking Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages outcomes with NOAA Storm Events data for 1996-2023, estimating sub-annual labor-market effects of flash and slower-onset floods, and assembling data on cell-phone mobility, credit-card purchases, satellite-based flood measures, and model-based flood measures. The collaboration produced a published review article on inland flooding, risk management, economic behavior, and data resources, as well as manuscript drafts and empirical estimates for NOAA, the National Weather Service, FEMA, and state and local emergency managers concerned with preparedness, warning, response, and recovery resources.

Agricultural, land-use, and conservation research generated outputs relevant to farm, ranch, and rural stakeholders. University of Illinois research produced new estimates of cropland allocation responses to local weather regimes and published a Nature article on climate change impacts to agriculture accounting for adaptation; the article was a cover story and was disseminated through FarmDoc and media coverage relevant to Midwestern farm audiences. University of Georgia research, in collaboration with the University of Tennessee, Albany State University, Texas A&M University, the University of Delaware, USDA, and other partners, designed stated-preference surveys, randomized trials, and laboratory experiments related to agricultural water conservation, Conservation Reserve Program management, prescribed burning incentives, and groundwater pumping under saltwater intrusion risk. These outputs inform Georgia Department of Natural Resources programs, USDA conservation assistance, and broader agricultural water-conservation program design.

Multiple projects addressed conservation targeting, land conservation, public goods, and rural development. Wyoming work developed and refined parcel-level statistical models of residential development risk for agricultural parcels and began pairing those estimates with propensity-score methods for estimating conservation easement costs. The Nature Conservancy of Wyoming and other NGO partners are using these risk estimates to guide conservation delivery on the ground, and researchers are working with the Wyoming state FSA office and statewide NGOs to propose Grassland CRP rental rates using residential-risk measures in response to USDA's request for state-level justification. Related Wyoming research examined exurban sprawl, rural parcelization, landscape fragmentation, public goods, and public service costs, with audiences including policy analysts, citizens, ranchers, land trusts, NRCS personnel, cooperative extension, and state agencies. Montana State University's work on urban growth boundaries used causal research designs to estimate how land-use regulation affects development density, open-space preservation, housing supply, and agricultural land conversion; the research was presented to approximately 200 Montana stakeholders, including farmers, ranchers, and state legislators.

Forest, carbon, wetland, and water-quality work produced important outputs for conservation program design. Oregon State and Ohio State researchers, with USDA ERS, completed an analysis using USDA Forest Service plot-level data to separate the effects of CO2, temperature, precipitation, management, age composition, and area on forest carbon storage in 14 forest groups across the conterminous United States. Using 2005-2022 data, they estimated that passive drivers accounted for 45 percent of the 148 Tg C per year increase associated with these drivers, improving the precision of carbon accounting and reporting of anthropogenic removals. Ohio State researchers also linked soil carbon measurements to USDA Cropland Data Layer data to support soil carbon incentive design in the Midwest and developed methods for assessing leakage in forest carbon offset protocols, including work informing Verra's improved forest management protocol. Montana State University's wetland research published evidence on the role of wetland reserve easements in restoring water quality, disseminated results through extension and media outlets, and produced a Farm Bill-oriented report with the Max McGraw Wildlife Foundation.

Water-quality, fisheries, and recreation studies provided new estimates of management benefits. Ohio State, Michigan State, and Penn State collaborations used travel-cost and survey methods to estimate values for Ohio and Lake Erie fisheries, including average values of $12.63 per fish in Ohio, values ranging from $36 per trout to $4 per bass, a $35 per trip recreation value for Lake Erie Basin water-quality improvements, and an estimated $364,000 recreational value loss from harmful algal bloom activity in 2015. Louisiana State University contributed to a collaborative project using Michigan cell-phone mobility data to estimate how fish consumption advisories affect recreation site choice and welfare, finding a willingness to pay of about $72 per visit to avoid advisory sites and approximately $3.45 million in annual welfare benefits from advisory disclosure. North Carolina State University completed a 2004-2024 panel of coastal recreational fishing site choice and participation for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts from NOAA MRIP, Census, transportation, AAA, and other data sources. Texas A&M research estimated the value of Gulf of Mexico offshore structures to recreational anglers and examined climate adaptation in food-at-home purchasing.

Outdoor recreation and public-land research advanced understanding of how management, information, and congestion affect welfare. Oregon State and University of Hawaii researchers examined social media and visitation to U.S. National Parks, finding that Instagram itself did not appear to drive increased visitation but that user popularity and engagement were associated with modest visitation increases. North Dakota State University research used a national dataset of large reservoir recreation visitation to estimate how management by the National Park Service and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers affects participation, finding that NPS-managed reservoirs attract significantly higher visitation per acre after controlling for site and regional characteristics. Additional work estimated homeowner willingness to accept managed retreat along Lake Michigan, with median payments of $38,000 to $77,000, excluding relocation costs. Lewis and collaborators developed work on dam removal welfare effects in Maine and congestion pricing on public lands, and produced a Brooks Camp Visitor Survey report for Katmai National Park addressing bear viewing, congestion, safety, and the value of congestion reduction. The Brooks Camp work was presented to National Park Service Katmai staff, the Brooks Camp Management Plan retreat, Katmai Conservancy, and the general public.

Wildlife, range, and agricultural hazard work produced new databases and stakeholder-facing outputs. University of Wyoming research obtained funding to estimate damages from annual invasive grasses on Wyoming rangeland through effects on mule deer populations and created databases of Wyoming ranchers leasing public lands, deer populations, hunting records, and invasive grass cover. The work supports a Wyoming landowner survey on soil carbon management and carbon-market participation planned for summer 2026. South Dakota State University research and extension advanced bison health and climate resilience, including a $7.4 million USGS grant with the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, 12 Decoding Bison workshops reaching 559 participants, and 21 media items reaching 217,949 contacts. Kansas State University research used 2008-2024 data to estimate Southern Great Plains wildfire crop and grazing losses, with combined crop and grazing losses ranging from approximately $150 million to $501 million, baseline grazing losses of $195 million, and crop losses of approximately $111 million. These estimates provide producers, communities, and policymakers with information for grassland wildfire preparedness.

Objective 2: Advance economic valuation methods and uses to enhance natural resource management, policy, and decision-making

Committee members advanced stated-preference, revealed-preference, benefit-transfer, mobile-data, and distributional valuation methods. Activities included developing econometric approaches for sequential recreation decisions, comparing survey and passive mobility data, correcting protest responses in stated-preference surveys, evaluating nonprobability panels, applying machine-learning methods to benefit transfer, and using administrative, spatial, and mobile-device data to estimate welfare in settings where conventional data are costly or unavailable.

Mobile-device and large-scale administrative data were a major methodological focus. Colorado State University research compared survey-based and mobile-data-based travel-cost estimates across 23 National Park Service sites; the manuscript was accepted for publication in Land Economics in February 2026 and provides a framework for evaluating when mobile-device location data can complement, but not fully replace, traditional travel-cost surveys. Related work developed methods for urban trail-system recreation-demand estimation, including representativeness diagnostics, treatment of multipurpose trips, and tract-based demographic imputation. Texas A&M research developed methods to identify marine recreational fishing effort using smartphone mobility data, while North Carolina State University's work compiled an unprecedented coastal recreational fishing panel. Louisiana State University work integrated cell-phone mobility data with a discrete-choice recreation demand framework, addressing endogeneity in advisory issuance and zero market shares. These outputs expand the practical toolkit for scalable recreation valuation and pollution-avoidance analysis.

Members also developed new methods for revealed-preference recreation and hazard valuation. Oregon State's research on wildfire smoke and extreme temperature required methods for modeling sequential reservation and cancellation decisions made under evolving information. The work used a control-function approach to link preferences across choices and address sample-selection bias. Hurricane evacuation research applied travel-cost methods in an evacuation context and used discrete-choice market-share techniques from industrial organization to estimate movement flows across geographic areas. These methods are useful for future valuation of recreation, avoidance behavior, and emergency-management decisions where choices unfold over time and information changes.

Stated-preference and survey research methods advanced under several projects. Oregon State and federal coauthors developed a layered, sequential approach for assessing whether opt-in nonprobability online panels can produce welfare distributions comparable to probability samples. In an ocean-beach safe recreation-hour application, the approach reduced variance in marginal willingness to pay for the nonprobability sample and produced distributions overlapping with the probability sample for a key attribute. Virginia Tech research developed a causal random forest framework to identify and correct protest YES and protest NO responses in dichotomous-choice contingent valuation. In an application with 1,433 observations, including 21 percent protest NO and 47 percent protest YES responses under inclusive criteria, the method estimated de-biased voting probabilities and individual-level willingness to pay without dropping protest observations or treating them as valid preferences. University of Georgia and University of Delaware/University of Alberta collaborators designed and implemented framed field experiments to test strategic behavior and social desirability bias in stated-preference willingness-to-pay for goods with public-good characteristics.

Benefit transfer and machine-learning methods generated outputs for agencies that need benefit estimates for policy analysis. Virginia Tech research extended a Local Linear Forest benefit-transfer framework for water-quality valuation, including a panel-data version recognizing clustering within studies and a mathematical limit rule for the water-quality meta-regression equation. The work showed that the forest-based approach improved predictive accuracy and efficiency relative to traditional methods, while also identifying challenges associated with sparse and uneven metadata. The methods were presented at the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists meetings, prompting an international collaboration with the University of Padua, and led to an invitation to write a synthesis paper on benefit transfer for water-quality valuation.

Distributional and equity-oriented valuation work continued to expand. Oregon State evacuation research examined heterogeneous responses to hurricane warnings by race, education, and income, finding that higher-income and more highly educated areas were more responsive to evacuation orders. A wildfire-smoke review considered unequal distribution of smoke impacts, including greater vulnerability for outdoor workers and lower-income populations. Oregon State work on water-quality monitoring examined how monitor placement and demographic characteristics relate to distributional implications for regulation and enforcement. University of Rhode Island research linked housing, land use, and voter registration data in three housing markets to estimate whether political partisans value neighborhood environmental amenities differently, with average annual household marginal willingness to pay for proximity to open space ranging from $426 to $1,061 across markets.

Objective 3: Develop solutions for integration of economic valuation with policy and decision-making

Objective 3 accomplishments focused on translating valuation and management research into decision-support tools, agency workflows, stakeholder guidance, and policy-relevant metrics. Activities included developing models for producers and agencies, preparing technical guidance, presenting findings to policymakers and management staff, and designing tools that combine economic valuation with ecological, spatial, and biophysical information.

University of Hawaii researchers developed tools to translate recreation valuation results for Hawaii's Na Ala Hele trail system into management guidance. The project used stated- and revealed-preference approaches to estimate willingness to pay for trail condition, habitat quality, crowding, and trip costs for residents and tourists. The team developed technical guidance documents and contributed to a broader multi-criteria decision-making framework combining economic valuation, spatial vulnerability, expert-elicited cost parameters, and trail investment priorities. The work is being communicated through frequent interactions with Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources Division of Forestry and Wildlife staff, giving managers a framework for comparing trail investments by preserved recreation value.

Decision-support work for agricultural and rangeland systems also advanced. University of Wyoming research obtained a $100,000 Wyoming Department of Agriculture Weed and Pest Program award and initiated data assembly for a decision-support tool that will help ranchers determine when it is economically optimal to apply rodenticides to manage prairie dog populations. Related 2025-2027 funding from the Wyoming Weed and Pest Council provided $59,999 to support invasive grasses and wildlife economics. University of Tennessee and W5133 collaborators are developing integrated biogeochemistry and economic optimization models, including a producer tool for evaluating higher-frequency rotations and a policy tool embedding machine-learning representations of biogeochemical processes within dynamic economic optimization.

Conservation market and land-conservation decision tools were a prominent area of progress. Chian Jones Ritten and colleagues conducted laboratory market experiments to test whether insurance instruments improve habitat exchange efficiency by offsetting conservation failure risk. The work found that buyer reimbursement of sellers' production costs for failed conservation actions generated the most conservation, while insurance reimbursing failed production costs was a second-best option. A 2025 Extension Bulletin was produced, and the results provide policymakers with evidence for designing habitat exchanges that generate more conservation. Wyoming conservation targeting work is already being used by The Nature Conservancy of Wyoming and NGO partners to screen conservation easement opportunities, and by Wyoming FSA and statewide NGOs to support Grassland CRP rental-rate proposals.

Policy integration was also evident in wildfire, water, and conservation program research. UC Berkeley research integrated public data on wildfire risk exposure, ignitions, reliability impacts, and utility costs to evaluate wildfire prevention efforts, compare mitigation benefits with capital and operating costs, and propose cost-efficiency metrics for comparing alternatives. Results were communicated through legislative presentations, media interviews, blog posts, and policy engagement, and new legislation now emphasizes wildfire mitigation cost efficiency and requires utilities to calibrate metrics similar to those developed in the research. University of Maryland research on CREP and related conservation subsidy programs evaluated contract design, landowner willingness to participate, water-quality trading, carbon offsets, and interactions between trading programs and federal conservation subsidies in the Chesapeake Bay region. The work is relevant to EPA, Maryland Department of Agriculture, USDA CREP, and other entities designing programs for agricultural nonpoint nutrient reductions. Oregon State research on nonprofit environmental organizations is estimating effects of nonprofit and government spending on threatened Pacific salmon and steelhead recovery, providing evidence for public and private organizations working toward species recovery and water-quality improvements.

Public-land and recreation decision support also progressed. Lewis and collaborators presented Brooks Camp visitor survey results to National Park Service Katmai staff, Katmai National Park Brooks Camp Management Plan participants, Katmai Conservancy, and wildlife-oriented public audiences. Colorado State and collaborator work on National Park Service mobile-data valuation provides workflows for repeated welfare estimation where survey resources are limited. Wildfire-smoke avoidance research is translating behavioral responses into welfare-relevant spending losses and health-cost comparisons that can be incorporated into smoke planning and cost-benefit analysis. North Dakota State reservoir work provides federal agencies with evidence that management structures and site attributes influence visitation, public access, congestion, and regional distribution of recreation benefits.

Linkages, collaborations, and stakeholder engagement

The reporting year showed strong internal W5133 linkages and external stakeholder engagement. Internal and multistate collaborations included Colorado State-University of Tennessee-NOAA flooding research; Oregon State-Ohio State-USDA ERS forest carbon accounting; Oregon State-University of Hawaii recreation and social-media research; University of Georgia-University of Tennessee-Albany State agricultural water-conservation research; University of Georgia-Texas A&M-University of Delaware-USDA conservation incentive research; Ohio State-Michigan State-Penn State fishery and conservation-practice work; University of Tennessee-Frank Lupi ecosystem-service payment and integrated modeling work; and Virginia Tech-University of Padua benefit-transfer collaboration. Additional collaborations linked W5133 members with NPS, USFS, USACE, NOAA, USDA, EPA, state departments of agriculture and natural resources, conservation NGOs, land trusts, ranchers, producers, and extension audiences.

Stakeholders received outputs in forms directly relevant to decision-making: journal articles, reports, working papers, extension bulletins, datasets, valuation estimates, cost metrics, conservation targeting models, survey instruments, decision-support tools, webinars, media interviews, and conference presentations. Documented short-term outcomes include agency and NGO use of Wyoming development-risk estimates for conservation easement delivery and CRP rental-rate proposals; NPS and Katmai stakeholder use of Brooks Camp congestion and visitor survey results; bison workshops reaching 559 participants and media products reaching 217,949 contacts; and Lake Erie and Ohio fishery values used to support fishery management. Quantitative outputs available for stakeholder use include wildfire smoke welfare estimates of $107 per person per trip and $2.3 billion annually, fish-consumption advisory welfare benefits of $3.45 million per year in Michigan, and grants supporting invasive grass, prairie dog, bison, flood, wetland, oyster restoration, and restoration return-on-investment research. Peer-group linkages included AERE, AAEA, WEAI-AERE, EAERE, NAAFE, Southern Economic Association, W5133 nonmarket valuation meetings, and university seminars and workshops.

Plans for the coming year

In the coming year, W5133 members will continue converting current datasets, surveys, experiments, and working papers into peer-reviewed outputs, agency reports, extension products, and stakeholder guidance. Planned work includes completing flood, smoke, evacuation, recreation, conservation targeting, fishery, forest carbon, wetland, and land-use manuscripts; administering the Wyoming landowner carbon-market survey in summer 2026; analyzing invasive grass and mule deer data in summer 2026; continuing prairie dog and forage data analysis for the rangeland decision-support tool; refining mobile-data valuation guidance; and expanding benefit-transfer, stated-preference, and distributional valuation methods.

The committee will also continue strengthening internal collaborations and external linkages with federal, state, tribal, NGO, producer, and public-land management audiences. Priority activities include translating valuation outputs into management decisions, improving decision-support tools for land and water conservation, integrating climate and natural-hazard welfare measures into planning, and communicating results through extension, agency briefings, policy engagement, and peer-reviewed publications.

Impacts

  1. W5133 research under Objective 1 is improving how agencies, communities, and producers understand the economic, social, and environmental consequences of climate change, natural hazards, land-use change, water management, conservation programs, and recreation management. The committee's work gives public agencies and stakeholders quantified evidence about who is affected, how large the welfare effects are, and which management choices can reduce losses or increase public benefits. Research on climate-related hazards is helping decision makers move beyond physical damage estimates alone. Wildfire smoke research estimated recreation welfare losses of $107 per person per trip and annual western U.S. recreation losses of about $2.3 billion, information relevant to the U.S. Forest Service, Department of the Interior, Cal Fire, Oregon Department of Forestry, and other agencies weighing fuel management, prescribed fire, smoke communication, and recreation planning. Related work on homeowners insurance and wildfire risk has been communicated to policy audiences, including the Federal Housing Finance Agency Economics Summit on Climate Risk and the Washington Office of the Insurance Commission's wildfire mitigation and resiliency standards work group. Flood research by Colorado State University, University of Tennessee, NOAA, and collaborators provides information for NOAA, the National Weather Service, FEMA, and emergency managers on short-run labor market disruptions and areas most vulnerable to flash and non-flash floods. Hurricane evacuation research provides county emergency managers with evidence about an undermeasured cost of protective action. Objective 1 research is also improving conservation and resource-management decisions. Wyoming development-risk estimates are already being used by The Nature Conservancy of Wyoming and other NGO partners to guide conservation easement delivery, and researchers are working with the Wyoming state FSA office and statewide NGOs to propose Grassland CRP rental rates using residential-risk measures. Maryland CREP and conservation-contract research gives EPA, Maryland Department of Agriculture, USDA CREP, and other Chesapeake Bay decision makers evidence for designing riparian buffer contracts, water-quality trading programs, and carbon offset interactions that can improve water quality at lower public cost. Wetland research informed policymakers and producers about the cost-effectiveness of wetland restoration, contributed to a Farm Bill-oriented report on USDA wetlands, and disseminated results through extension and media outreach. Forest, carbon, agriculture, and rangeland research is creating public value by improving climate and conservation accounting. Oregon State, Ohio State, and USDA ERS work showed that passive drivers were responsible for 45 percent of the 148 Tg C per year increase in forest carbon storage associated with six active and passive drivers from 2005 to 2022, helping nations with forest inventories distinguish anthropogenic removals from passive uptake when evaluating net-zero strategies. Ohio State work on conservation practice adoption and forest carbon leakage helps target conservation payments where they are more likely to be additional and informs carbon offset integrity, including data-driven protocol development for Verra's improved forest management protocol. University of Illinois work on agricultural adaptation to climate change was published in Nature, disseminated through FarmDoc, and covered by farm-relevant media, giving producers and extension specialists accessible evidence on agricultural climate impacts. Kansas State research quantified Southern Great Plains wildfire crop and grazing losses at approximately $150 million to $501 million from 2008 to 2024, giving producers, communities, and policymakers evidence for grassland wildfire preparedness. Recreation, water-quality, and fishery research under Objective 1 is helping managers evaluate the benefits of environmental information, public access, and site management. Hawaii trail research quantified annual recreation value in the millions of dollars and provided weekly information to state agency partners, strengthening budget justifications for trail maintenance, ecological restoration, hazard mitigation, and permit-system design. Reservoir management research showed that National Park Service-managed reservoirs attract significantly higher visitation per acre than comparable U.S. Army Corps of Engineers sites, giving federal agencies evidence on how management structures and site characteristics affect public access, congestion, tourism spending, and recreation welfare. Louisiana State University research found that Michigan fish consumption advisories produce approximately $3.45 million in annual welfare benefits from advisory disclosure and that visitors are willing to pay about $72 per trip to avoid advisory sites, evidence that helps agencies incorporate recreation impacts into water-quality communication and advisory design. Public-land and recreation work was also conveyed to National Park Service Katmai staff, the Brooks Camp Management Plan retreat, Katmai Conservancy, and the public to inform decisions about bear viewing, congestion, safety, and the value of congestion reduction.
  2. W5133 research under Objective 2 is increasing the credibility, scalability, and policy usefulness of nonmarket valuation. These impacts matter because agencies frequently need benefit estimates for recreation, water quality, fisheries, conservation, and hazard policy in settings where direct market prices are unavailable and conventional data collection is expensive. Mobile-device and large-scale administrative data research gives agencies a lower-cost way to supplement traditional surveys while clarifying where passive data are not enough. Colorado State University research comparing mobile-device and survey-based travel-cost estimates across 23 National Park Service sites provides the National Park Service, U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior, and other land-management agencies with guidance on when mobile data can support repeated recreation welfare estimation across sites and seasons. Texas A&M research provides the foundation for new methods to identify marine recreational fishing effort using smartphone mobility data. Louisiana State University work shows how high-frequency mobility data can be integrated with discrete-choice models to estimate pollution avoidance, recreation demand, and welfare responses. Together, these methods can reduce the cost of repeated valuation and expand benefit estimation to places and times where on-site survey data are unavailable. Stated-preference and benefit-transfer methods developed by W5133 members improve the quality of benefit-cost analysis. Virginia Tech research on Local Linear Forest benefit transfer gives agencies and policymakers more accurate and efficient ways to use existing water-quality valuation studies to estimate benefits for new policy contexts, reducing the risk of misallocating public resources. The work was presented to an international audience at the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists meetings, prompted collaboration with University of Padua researchers, and led to an invited synthesis paper on benefit transfer for water-quality valuation. Related Virginia Tech research developed a causal random forest approach to correct protest responses in stated-preference surveys, improving the credibility of willingness-to-pay estimates when survey respondents object to payment vehicles, agencies, or hypothetical scenarios. Oregon State and federal coauthors developed procedures for comparing opt-in nonprobability online panels with probability samples, helping agencies assess whether lower-cost survey panels can produce reliable welfare estimates. Objective 2 research also improves equity and distributional analysis. Work on hurricane evacuation responses shows that higher-income and more highly educated areas are more responsive to evacuation orders, providing emergency managers with evidence about uneven behavioral responses to risk communication. Water-quality monitoring research benefits EPA, state environmental agencies, and public and private water-quality organizations by showing how monitor placement relates to community demographic characteristics and what that implies for regulatory enforcement across populations. University of Rhode Island research estimated annual household willingness to pay for proximity to open space across three housing markets, helping explain how environmental amenities are capitalized into housing decisions and how these values vary across households. Fishery, restoration, and water-quality valuation methods are already supporting management and funding decisions. Ohio valuation work is used to help establish the benefits of fishery management: 2025 estimates placed average Ohio fishing value at $12.63 per fish, with values ranging from $36 per trout to $4 per bass, and estimated Lake Erie Basin water-quality recreation value at $35 per trip. These values help fishery managers evaluate stocking, catch-limit regulations, nutrient reductions, and harmful algal bloom impacts.
  3. W5133 research under Objective 3 is converting valuation evidence into decision tools, policy metrics, and management guidance. These impacts are important because stakeholders need not only estimates of environmental and recreation benefits, but practical ways to incorporate those estimates into budgets, regulations, conservation programs, and management choices. Decision-support tools are helping managers compare alternatives and target resources. Hawaii trail research is being incorporated into a broader multi-criteria decision-making framework for the Division of Forestry and Wildlife, combining recreation welfare estimates, spatial vulnerability, cost information, and expert input to identify trail investments with high returns in preserved recreation value. Wyoming conservation targeting models are already used by The Nature Conservancy of Wyoming and other NGO partners to decide whether proposed conservation easements should be accepted, combining development risk, ecosystem values, and expected conservation costs. Wyoming FSA and statewide NGOs are using related evidence to propose Grassland CRP rental rates in response to USDA's request for state justification. University of Tennessee and collaborators are developing integrated biogeochemical-economic tools to help producers evaluate higher-frequency rotations and help policymakers evaluate ecosystem-service payment programs. W5133 work is also affecting policy design in wildfire mitigation, habitat exchanges, and conservation markets. UC Berkeley wildfire mitigation research produced cost-efficiency metrics that were communicated through legislative presentations, media interviews, blog posts, and other policy engagement. The work generated substantive policymaker interest, and new legislation emphasized cost-efficiency of wildfire mitigation and requires utilities to calibrate metrics similar to those developed in the research for comparing mitigation alternatives. Chian Jones Ritten's laboratory market experiments and 2025 Extension Bulletin provide policymakers with evidence that buyer reimbursement of failed conservation production costs generated the most conservation in habitat exchanges, while insurance for failed production costs was a second-best option. This evidence helps improve habitat exchange design so conservation markets can generate more ecological benefits for targeted species and surrounding ecosystems. Public-land, water-quality, and species-recovery decision support is improving the ability of agencies and organizations to justify investments and compare tradeoffs. National Park Service and Katmai stakeholders received Brooks Camp visitor survey evidence on bear viewing, congestion, safety, and willingness to pay for congestion reduction, supporting management planning for a high-demand public-land setting. Colorado State mobile-data valuation work creates a practical pathway for integrating nonmarket valuation into public-land monitoring, visitor-use management, and regulatory analysis when survey resources are limited. Wildfire-smoke research provides welfare measures that can be incorporated into air-quality planning and cost-benefit analysis. Oregon State research on nonprofit environmental organizations and government spending helps EPA, state environmental agencies, nonprofit organizations, and conservation partners understand which public and private expenditures contribute to threatened salmon and steelhead recovery goals.

Grants, Contracts & Other Resources Obtained

Grants, Contracts, and Other Resources Obtained

The following grants, contracts, fellowships, and other resources were reported by W5133 participants for the 2025-2026 reporting period. 

Grants and Funded Awards with Amounts Reported

Recipient(s)Project or ResourceFunding SourceAmountTerm
Jude Bayham and collaborators, Colorado State University Inland Flooding and Evacuation: Individual Decisions and Economic Impacts NOAA / National Weather Service $500,000 September 2023-August 2026
Daniel Petrolia, Mississippi State University Getting the Most Bang for Your Oyster Enhancement Buck Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium $295,297 February 1, 2026-January 31, 2028
Daniel Petrolia, Mississippi State University Evaluating Restoration's Return on Investment Gulf of America Alliance $192,666 February 1, 2026-November 30, 2027
Kelly Grogan, University of Wyoming Decision Support Tool for Determining Cost-Effective Action Thresholds for the Management of Prairie Dogs on Wyoming's Rangelands Wyoming Department of Agriculture, Weed and Pest Program $100,000 2026-2030
Nicole Karwowski, Montana State University Support for agricultural conservation and water quality research National Great Rivers Research and Education Center $70,000 August 2024-August 2025
Kelly Grogan, University of Wyoming Invasive Grasses and Wildlife Economics Wyoming Weed and Pest Council $59,999 2025-2027
Jeff Martin and partners, South Dakota State University Grant to integrate bison into national climate adaptation strategies USGS, through partnership with the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center $7.4 million  

Other Reported Resources or Support with Partial Details

Recipient(s)Resource or SupportSource
Lusi Xie, University of Georgia Lone Mountain Fellowship supporting work on agricultural water conservation and voluntary irrigation suspension Property and Environment Research Center (PERC)
Lusi Xie and collaborators, University of Georgia Cooperative agreement supporting research on financial and technical assistance for Conservation Reserve Program participants USDA
Rachel Short, South Dakota State University Building Research Capacity of New Faculty in Biology grant supporting research on faunal communities and environmental change National Science Foundation
Rachel Short, South Dakota State University Postdoctoral researcher support for modified wildlife and environmental-change work Indigenous LED
Rachel Short, South Dakota State University Funding for field work on agricultural practices, wildlife, and vegetation USDA NRCS
Benjamin Rashford and Wyoming conservation partners Use of development-risk estimates to support conservation easement targeting and proposed Grassland CRP rental rates The Nature Conservancy of Wyoming, Wyoming state FSA office, statewide NGOs, and USDA-related Grassland CRP process
Nicole Karwowski and collaborators, Montana State University Report development to inform future Farm Bill policy on preserving, restoring, and enhancing wetlands Max McGraw Wildlife Foundation
Justin Gallagher, Montana State University Collaboration to secure federal grant funding for urban growth boundary research Montana State University Director of Economic Development and Impact; prospective federal funding

Publications

 

Articles, Accepted Papers, Forthcoming Papers, Book Chapters, Reports, and Working Papers

  1. Ahmadiani, M., & Woodward, R. T. (forthcoming). Valuing offshore habitat to recreational anglers using cellphone location data. Land Economics.
  2. Ahmadiani, M., & Woodward, R. T. (forthcoming). Fishing for anglers in a sea of data: Using mobility data to identify and track marine recreational fishing. Fish and Fisheries. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70033
  3. Akhundjanov, S. B. (2026). Revisiting the impact of the Indian Ocean Tsunami on Aceh's long-term economic growth. Economics Letters, 263, 112938.
  4. Akhundjanov, S. B., & Jakus, P. M. (2026). Public lands and urban quality of life. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, in press.
  5. Alix-Garcia, J., Assuncao, J., Garg, T., Mishra, P., & Moffette, F. (2025). Tradeoffs and synergies for agriculture and environmental outcomes in the tropics. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, accepted paper.
  6. Austin, K. G., Favero, A., Forsell, N., Sohngen, B. L., Wade, C. M., Ohrel, S. B., & Ragnauth, S. (2025). Targeting climate finance for global forests. Nature Communications, 16(1), 6443.
  7. Bartlett, A., Alix-Garcia, J., Abarca, A., Walker, S., Van Den Hoek, J., Murillo-Sandoval, P., & Friedrich, H. K. (2024). The unintended consequences of production bans: The case of the 2018 Kenya logging moratorium. Environmental Research Letters, 19, 094007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad661c
  8. Bayham, J., Enriquez, A. J., & Richardson, L. (accepted February 2026). Are mobile device location data a substitute for travel cost surveys? Land Economics.
  9. Beasley, W. J., & Dundas, S. J. (2026). Navigating the shift: Homeowner perspectives on managed retreat along Lake Michigan. Land Economics, 102(1), 76-97. https://doi.org/10.3368/le.102.1.100124-0086R
  10. Boateng, M. M., Hearne, R., & Roberts, D. C. (2025). The impact of reservoir management agency on recreation participation. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 10(2), 103-122. https://doi.org/10.5325/naturesopolirese.10.2.0103
  11. Boomhower, J., Fowlie, M., Gellman, J., & Plantinga, A. (2025). How are insurance markets adapting to climate change? Risk classification and pricing in the market for homeowners insurance. NBER Working Paper No. 32625.
  12. Chen, C. T., Lade, G. E., Crespi, J. M., & Keiser, D. A. (2025). Size-based regulation and water quality: Evidence from the Iowa hog industry. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
  13. Chen, W., Klaiber, H. A., & Miteva, D. A. (forthcoming). Compensating differentials of rents, wages and agricultural returns: The quality-of-life among Indonesian regencies and cities. Environment and Development Economics. https://resolve.cambridge.org/core/journals/environment-and-development-economics/article/abs/compensating-differentials-in-rents-wages-and-agricultural-returns-the-qualityoflife-among-indonesian-regencies-and-cities/27130EBC6CA6E2F05D14A3A86D7CE195
  14. Daigneault, A., Sohngen, B., Belair, E., & Ellis, P. (2025). A globally relevant data-driven assessment of carbon leakage from forestry. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae0ce2
  15. Davis, E. C., Ivanic, M., & Sohngen, B. (2025). Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: The implications for global markets. Carbon Balance and Management, 20(1), 5.
  16. Davis, E. C., Sohngen, B., & Lewis, D. J. (2026). How much of the forest sink is passive? Case of the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 123(4), e2513588123. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2513588123
  17. Earle, A., Tompson, C., Lupi, F., & von Haefen, R. H. Two's company, three's a crowd: Nonlinear preferences for crowding at public beaches. Revisions requested at Marine Resource Economics.
  18. Faccioli, M., & Moeltner, K. (2026). Random forests for dichotomous choice contingent valuation. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 137, 103303.
  19. Favero, A., Baker, J., Sohngen, B., Daigneault, A., Wade, C., Ohrel, S., & Ragnauth, S. (2025). Investing in U.S. forests to mitigate climate change. Carbon Balance and Management, 20(1), 4.
  20. Frankenberger, J., McMillan, S. K. W., Williams, M. R., Mazer, K., Ross, J., & Sohngen, B. (2025). Drainage water management: A review of nutrient load reductions and cost effectiveness. Journal of the ASABE, 67(4), 1077-1092.
  21. Fuller, M., Baker, J., Daigneault, A., Guo, J., Lauri, P., Favero, A., Forsell, N., Johnston, C., & Sohngen, B. (2025). Global carbon storage in harvested wood products: A forest sector model inter-comparison. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae0ce0
  22. Gellman, J., Hennighausen, H., Watson, B., & Berry, K. (2024). The cost of hurricane evacuations. Working paper, Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University.
  23. Gellman, J., Pond, Z., & Wibbenmeyer, M. Valuation of climate amenities using campground reservations and cancellations. Working paper, Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University.
  24. Gellman, J., Walls, M., & Wibbenmeyer, M. (2025). Welfare losses from wildfire smoke: Evidence from daily outdoor recreation data. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 132, 103166.
  25. Gopalakrishnan, S., Malik, K., & Zhu, K. (2025). Climate change and coupled human and natural systems. In Routledge Handbook of Climate Change and Society (2nd ed., pp. 77-97).
  26. Grant, L., & Langpap, C. (2025). Jurisdictional failures and the role of nonprofits in externality regulation. Under review.
  27. Grant, L., & Langpap, C. (2025). Social efficiency in the tax deductibility of charitable donations. Under review.
  28. Grant, L., Hernandez-Cortes, D., & Langpap, C. (2025). Picking where to measure: Distribution and equity of water quality monitoring. Working paper.
  29. Hadziomerspahic, A., Kolstoe, S. H., & Dundas, S. J. (2025). Cleaning matters! Lessons learned from comparing response behaviors and willingness to pay in address-based and online panel samples. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Center for Environmental Economics Working Paper Series 2025-05. https://www.epa.gov/environmental-economics/cleaning-matters-lessons-learned-comparing-response-behaviors-and
  30. Hua, J., Wrenn, D. H., & Klaiber, H. A. (2025). Urbanizing agriculture, additionality, and the adoption of agricultural conservation practices. Land Economics, 101, 141-161.
  31. Hultgren et al. (2025). Article on climate change impacts to agriculture accounting for adaptation. Nature.
  32. Hurtado-Materon, M. A., Siciliano-Martina, L., Short, R. A., McGuire, J. L., & Lawing, A. M. (2025). commecometrics: An R package for trait-environment modeling at the community level. Biodiversity Data Journal, 13, e168221. https://doi.org/10.3897/BDJ.13.e168221
  33. Karwowski, N., & Skidmore, M. (2025). Nature's kidneys: The role of wetland reserve easements in restoring water quality. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
  34. Kim, Y., Lichtenberg, E., & Newburn, D. A. (2024). Payments and penalties in payments for ecosystem services programs. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 126.
  35. Lang, C., & VanCeylon, J. (2025). Voting with their left and right feet: Are homebuyers' values of neighborhood environmental amenities consistent with their politics? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 131, 103157.
  36. Lowe Mackenzie, A. C., & Dundas, S. J. (2026). Is a photo worth a thousand likes? Influencers and viral content at National Parks. Working paper.
  37. Manning, D. T., & Barbier, E. (2025). Natural capital and aggregate income growth. Environment and Development Economics.
  38. Miteva, D. A., Cheng, Y., Miller, A., & Gopalakrishnan, S. (2025). The value of forests in reducing malaria mortality in India. Environment and Development Economics, 30, 263-281. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X25000075
  39. Miteva, D. A., Ellis, E. A., Ellis, P. W., Sills, E. O., Naples, C., Uematsu, C., Rodriguez-Ward, D., & Griscom, B. W. (2025). Community sawmills can save forests: Forest regrowth and avoided deforestation due to vertical integration of wood production in Mexican community forests. Ecological Economics, 236, 108658.
  40. Moffette, F., & Alix-Garcia, J. (2024). Agricultural subsidies: Cutting into forest conservation. Environment and Development Economics, 29, 179-205. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X23000189
  41. Morawetz, U. B., & Klaiber, H. A. (2025). Regression analysis with independent variables in shares: A guide and an empirical example. Empirica, 52, 63-98.
  42. Mulungu, K., Manning, D. T., Kumwenda, C., Mwelwa, L., & Mudenda, L. (2025). Farm production, marketing, and children's nutritional outcomes in rural Zambia. Agricultural Economics.
  43. Muriqi, D., Bayham, J., Goemans, C., Manning, D., & Suter, J. (2025). Inland flooding in the United States: A review of research related to risk management, economic behavior, and data resources. Environmental Research Letters, 20, 063003.
  44. Oh, N., Davis, E. C., & Sohngen, B. (2025). Sustainability in boreal forests: Does elevated CO2 increase wood volume? Sustainability, 17(15), 7017.
  45. Osman, E., & Bergtold, J. S. (2025). Variation in intensity of adoption of alternative tillage practices by farmers: Influence of crop rotation, site-specific and risk factors. Journal of Environmental Management, 385, 125546. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125546
  46. Petrolia, D. R., & Haner, J. (2024). What is the value of ecosystem services provided by recent restoration efforts on the northern Gulf Coast? Final report, MASGC Project R/HCE-20, MASGC Publication MASGP-24-035.
  47. Petrolia, D. R., & Hwang, J. (forthcoming). Attribute non-attendance in stated preference methods. In T. Haab, L. Ma, & J. Whitehead (Eds.), Handbook of Environmental Valuation. Edward Elgar Publishing.
  48. Ramsey, A. F., Yu, J., & Moeltner, K. (2026). Bayesian econometrics in agricultural and resource economics. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 53(1), 127-168.
  49. Rouhi Rad, M., Suter, J., Manning, D., & Goemans, C. (2025). Abatement subsidies for groundwater conservation. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
  50. Shupinski, A. B., Martin, J. M., Brock, B. L., Otalora-Castillo, E., Hill, M. E., Jr., Widga, C., Rudnik, J. L., & Short, R. A. (2026). Significant northwest shift in suitable climate expected for North American bison by the year 2100. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 13, 1695457. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2025.1695457
  51. Sims, K., & Alix-Garcia, J. (2025). Emerging design principles for environmental, economic, and equity successes in land conservation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, accepted paper.
  52. Sloggy, M., Manning, D. T., Goemans, C., & Claassen, R. (2025). Insurance and extraction incentives in a common pool resource: Evidence from groundwater use in the High Plains. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.
  53. Sohngen, B., Baker, J. S., Favero, A., & Daigneault, A. (2025). Carbon implications of wood harvesting and forest management. Nature, 646(8087), E18-E19.
  54. Sorice, M. G., Clifton, K., Moeltner, K., Carr, W., & Adimey, N. (forthcoming). Habitat quality across stages of a conservation program. Conservation Letters.
  55. Tibebu, T. B., Li, S., Torres Arroyo, M., Lessard, K., Bozeman, J. F., III, Cai, Y., Gephart, J. A., Konar, M., Lee, Y.-J., & Romeiko, X. (2025). Interactions and tradeoffs for sustainability, equity, and resilience in wasted food models. Environmental Research Communications, 7(4), 045013. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adc22f
  56. Toto, R., Alix-Garcia, J., Sims, K., Coutinho, B., Munoz Brenes, C., Pugliese, L., & Mendes, A. (2025). Scaling up forest conservation on private land: Causal evidence from Brazil. Nature Communications, 16, 4715. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-59194-3
  57. von Haefen, R. H., & Liu, Y. Zonal travel cost models: Recreation demand with administrative and social mobility data. Forthcoming in T. Haab, L. Ma, & J. Whitehead (Eds.), Handbook in Environmental Valuation. Edward Elgar.
  58. Walker, S., Alix-Garcia, J., Bartlett, A., & Calder, A. (2025). Land tenure security and deforestation: Experimental evidence from Uganda. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103137
  59. Wan, X., Ren, Y., Zhang, R., Zheng, J., & Zhang, W. (accepted during reporting year). Quantifying recreational benefits from fish consumption advisories: Insights from cell phone mobility data. Land Economics.
  60. Wang, Y., Dundas, S. J., Hadziomerspahic, A., Haley, B. M., & Kolstoe, S. H. (2026). Wildfire impacts on the value of safe drinking water: Evidence from housing in Oregon's Willamette Basin. Working paper.
  61. Wardle, A. R., & Akhundjanov, S. B. (2025). Industry compliance costs under the Renewable Fuel Standard: Evidence from compliance credits. Review of Industrial Organization, 67(1), 1-34.
  62. Wu, Y., Davis, E. C., & Sohngen, B. L. (2025). Crop rotation and the impact on soil carbon in the U.S. Corn Belt. Carbon Balance and Management, 20(1), 6.
  63. Zhao, Z., Lewis, D. J., & Langpap, C. (2025). Examining the effectiveness of nonprofit groups' expenditures on species recovery: The case of Pacific salmon and steelhead. Under review.

Technical Notes, Extension Outputs, and Presentations Reported as Publications

  1. Chian Jones Ritten. (2025). Extension bulletin on habitat exchange insurance and conservation failure risk.
  2. Conservation Planning with Bison Producers. USDA NRCS Technical Note. https://directives.nrcs.usda.gov/sites/default/files2/1732536012/TN-190-BIO-94%20Conservation%20Planning%20with%20Bison%20Producers.pdf
  3. Decoding bison dietary selection: More than just grass. South Dakota State University Extension. https://extension.sdstate.edu/decoding-bison-dietary-selection-more-just-grass
  4. Climate Toolbox How-To: Preparing Your Ranch for Future Climate Scenarios. South Dakota State University Extension. https://extension.sdstate.edu/climate-toolbox-how-preparing-your-ranch-future-climate-scenarios
  5. Lewis, D., Landry, C., & Nam, H. Difference-in-difference estimates to assess welfare effects of dam removal in Maine, USA. Presented at the W5133 nonmarket valuation meetings, February 2026.
  6. Lewis, D., Mallon, J., & Richardson, L. Congestion pricing: The case of public lands. Presented at the W5133 nonmarket valuation meetings, February 2026.
  7. Fitz, M., Lewis, D., Richardson, L., Mallon, J., & Taylor, L. Brooks Camp Visitor Survey 2025: Perceptions on bear viewing, congestion, safety, and the value of congestion reduction. Report presented to National Park Service Katmai National Park staff, the Katmai National Park Brooks Camp Management Plan retreat, Katmai Conservancy, and the general public.
  8. Potential fence density in central and Western North America and implications for bison restoration. Biological Conservation. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111194
  9. Multistakeholder advances on a definition of North American bison health. Journal of Wildlife Diseases. https://doi.org/10.7589/JWD-D-24-00209
  10. Consumption and effectiveness of anthelmintic-medicated block supplements for the treatment of Trichostrongyle nematodes in a northern Great Plains bison herd. Veterinary Parasitology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vetpar.2025.110521
  11. Lieske, S., McLeod, D., & Coupal, R. Political jurisdiction, reputation and urban form: A more complete specification of public service costs. In revision for submission to a peer-reviewed journal.
  12. Coupal, R., McLeod, D., & Hansen, K. Economic assessment of nonpoint source pollution management in the Tongue River Basin, WY. In development for a peer-reviewed journal.
  13. Mallon, J., Lewis, D., Richardson, L., Fitz, M., & Taylor, L. Worth the wait? Willingness to pay for a bears-eye view. In preparation for publication.
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