Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

Current President Matthew Interis called the meeting to order at 5:00 pm on 03/04/2021.

• First order of business was to elect two new officers, one incoming Secretary and one to replace Xiang Bi as Vice President. Jerrod Penn nominated himself as the Vice President. Jesse Burkhardt nominated himself as the Secretary. There were no other nominations and there was unanimous support for their nominations.

• Second order of business was to discuss the upcoming re-charter for the group.
• Dale Manning suggested adding specific tasks on the application of nonmarket valuation on the integrated modelling of water.
• Amy Ando suggested adding environmental justice and distribution of the cost and benefits, non-valuation to support racial justice.
• Julie Mueller suggested adding valuation methods and environmental justice as a new task.
• Roger von Haefen suggested including natural hazards topics like wildfires, coastal resilience in the West.
• Dale Manning and Xiang Bi suggest a focus on climate change adaptation.
• Klaus Moeltner suggested human adaptation and environmental justice and Frank Lupi adds distributional effects and barriers related to this topic.
• Jennifer Alix-Garcia suggested benefit-transfer as a method and include adjustments to BCA to accommodate distributional assumptions.
• Klaus Moeltner suggests keeping methodology as central theme using example of a next generation of benefits transfer with more emphasis on the distributional impact.
• Benefit-cost methodology was discussed by Jerrod Penn, Jennifer Alix-Garcia, Klaus Moeltner and Frank Lupi. It was also noted for the need to align with preferences in terms of the objectives on the west region.
• It was suggested broadly that we ask for potential input from reviewers and related agencies (i.e., Patty Champ). Based on the existing objectives, adjust the tasks into the current main objectives based on responses received. Also solicit advice from our Liaison to USDA (Ken White/Utah State)
• John Bergstrom suggested looking at current NIFA’s objectives and themes when reformulating our objectives.
• Kathleen Bell suggested we acknowledge linkages (coauthors and collaborations) from this multi-state project among universities and various agencies. Also to demonstrate impacts of the project by highlighting the interactions and collaborations with various agencies.
• Frank Lupi suggests setting up a meeting with our Liaison and NIFA officer.
• John Bergstrom noted that we may want letters of support or to indicate external reviewers from various agencies that use the research generated from the project.

3) Third order of business was to discuss plans for next year’s meeting

• In-person is preferred – timeframe February to early March
• Can wait a bit to decide (usually need six month ahead of time with hotel)
• Matt Interis will share the budgets with Steven Dundas
• Steven Dundas proposed Bend, OR as a potential site for 2022 meeting and others seemed agreeable to this suggestion.

At the conclusion of this meeting, Matthew Interis concludes his three-year officer rotation (thank you, Matt!), Steven Dundas rotates from Vice-President to President, Jerrod Penn begins his term as Vice-President, and Jesse Burkhardt begins his term as Secretary.

The meeting was adjourned at 5:35 pm.

Accomplishments

Objective 1: Resource Management

Colorado State University:

We concluded work on the Ogallala Coordinated Agricultural Project (CAP) grant.  The concluding meetings were well attended and the project overall elevated awareness and interest in groundwater management opportunities. We began work to value the private benefits and costs of soil organic carbon on working lands.

Mississippi State University:

Investigator Petrolia and graduate student Shea Gould investigated the impact on housing prices of natural-hazard mitigation actions.  Work focused on hurricane-prone counties in coastal Alabama.  Graduate student completed thesis and graduated.

North Carolina State University:

Research by von Haefen (NC State) and Dundas (Oregon State) quantified the economic costs to coastal recreational anglers from climate change over the next century.  Two journal articles and one extension publication were generated.  Ongoing research examines the interplay of climate change, air pollution and coastal recreational fishing.

Northern Arizona University:

Julie Mueller is the Lead Principal Investigator for a, National Science Foundation Build and Broaden grant, “Build and Broaden: Advancing fundamental knowledge of social, behavioral, and economic responses to pandemics in minority communities,” $49,912, awarded August 2020-September 2022. The workshop will engage researchers from a Hispanic Serving Institution to collaborate on projects incorporating environmental justice challenges into non-market valuation. The project also engages tribal communities to develop new theories for the future of sustainable tourism.

Oregon State University:

Alix-Garcia and collaborators published a paper showing how the availability of free, remotely sensed data can reduce deforestation.  

Dundas and Lewis published a paper estimating non-market benefits for erosion protection and potential for spillover effects in Oregon’s coastal housing market that can help inform better decision-making and policies for communities to adapt to climate change.

Dundas and a collaborator (former PhD student Jason Beasley) published a paper modeling the private adaptation decisions of shoreline property owners facing a land-use restrictions and sea-level rise. Our results suggest spatial interactions, including peer effects, and potential policy changes are the most significant potential drivers of coastal land use change in Oregon.

Dundas and collaborator (w4133 participant Lee Parton) published a paper identifying perverse incentives and unintended consequences of anticipated land use policy changes related to sea-level rise. We show a green paradox effect that more housing was built in high-risk coastal areas quickly after the announcement of a policy change but before any change took place. These results suggest unintended behavioral responses by individuals to economic incentives may undermine land-use policies aimed at protecting collective public interests.     

Lewis and collaborators published a paper that examines how climate adaptation using forest management will affect wildlife habitat for species of conservation concern along the Pacific coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California. The paper examines how adaptation to climate change and a carbon price alter wildlife habitat through the altering of forest harvest rotations and the types of forests that are replanted.

Pennsylvania State University:

Michael Jacobson worked on a project focused on forest plantations in Africa. The provide income, foreign exchange, rural livelihood opportunities. Trees can also provide ecosystem services. Jacobson and Ciolkosz (2020) explores the value-added products from wood pellets as innovative technology to meet energy needs renewably. Chahal et al. (2020) explores the process of commercially debarking wood and using the bark material as a value added product. Jacobson and Ham (2020) examines the problems with agricultural technology adoption. In this case the role of fertilizer trees as soil replenishment technology in Zambia is examined.

Karen Fisher-Vanden and Douglas Wrenn conducted research this year that has resulted in an improvement in our understanding of climate change impacts in a number of areas through integrated modeling that captures multisector dynamics and integrated impacts across sectors: (1) how water scarcity in the U.S. West affects the integrated energy-water-land system; (2) how water institutions in the U.S. West affect the efficient allocation of scarce water across uses/sectors; (3) how changes in temperature and precipitation can affect the reliability of power systems. Zaveri, Wrenn, and Fisher-Vanden (2020) examines the impact of weather shocks and irrigation availability on short-term migration made by Indian households. In our empirical model, we use micro-level household data from rural India. In developing countries households often use short-term migration as a means of insurance smoothing out income shocks at the household level. This is especially true for small, farming households who are subject to weather shocks that impact household income. In our research, we specifically look at how different types of irrigation impacts short-term migration decisions where the differences in irrigation were based on how consistently available those sources of water were - i.e., deep, fossil-water aquifers provide a much more reliable and consistent source of water relative to more shallow acquirers and surface-water sources. Our results show that households with access to fossil-water aquifers are much less likely to send out short-term migrants. We also find that following a rainfall shock these households see no change in their migration rates whereas households without this type of access increase their migration rates. From a policy perspective this is an issue given that most fossil-water aquifers are unregulated and thus their long-term viability is uncertain.

Daniel Brent has several projects that investigate the role of price and non-price factors in resource management. These projects primarily focus on water resources to estimate drivers of heterogeneity in demand elasticity as well as behavioral, social, and cognitive determinants of consumption. Projects under this goal include: Brent et al. (2020) find that the content of the normative message is a driver of the results, and that nudges can be better optimized to increase water conservation, particularly among lower-use households. Aggregate savings can increase by roughly 40%. Brent (Working Paper) finds that prices increase the probability of adopting drought-resistant landscape and have important long-term consequences for water demand. Brent and Wichman (Working Paper) find little evidence for the interaction of social comparisons and water prices, suggesting the mechanisms are primarily moral costs.

Katherine Zipp - Rice et al. (2020) introduces a new framework (the Recreational Ecosystem Services Interpretive Framework) that combines recreational ecosystem services and a benefits approach to leisure to better inform management of protected areas. Miller et al. (2020) investigates public perception of prescribed fires in New Jersey and Pennsylvania and finds that hunters had lower levels of perceived costs and likelihood of negative outcomes from prescribed fire than non-hunters.

University of Connecticut:

Research is being carried out in the context of three broad topics: (1) management of surface water and groundwater use in agriculture under climate change; (2) development and utilization of dams to manage climate induced changes in river flows; and (3) economic impact of climate change mitigation strategies on agricultural production, food choices, and human nutrition. In the reporting period, it resulted in two conference presentations, two journal articles under review, and completion of one M.S. thesis. 

Presentations: Bruno, C. and F. Shah “Economic Analysis of Groundwater Depletion with Possible Import of Supplementary Supply: The Case of Western Kansas (Sheridan County)” Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association Meetings, 2020.

Huang, J., C. Bruno, and F. Shah “Climate Change and the Role of Public Policy in Sustaining Agricultural Growth” Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meetings, 2020.

Journal Articles Under Review: Niu, Y. and F. Shah “Economics of Optimal Reservoir Capacity Determination, Sediment Management, and Dam Decommissioning.”

Tiboldo, G., R. Boehm, F. Shah and E. Castellari “Taxing the Heat Out of the U.S. Food System.”

Thesis: Bruno, C. Economics of Inter-Regional Water Compacts with Consideration of Groundwater and Surface Water Interaction: A Case Study from the Republican River Basin. M.S., Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Connecticut, 2020.

University of Florida:

Published two peer-reviewed journal articles on fund raising for local environmental issues and agricultural producer’s willingness to accept best management practices.

University of Illinois:

Task 1-1, Outputs

Gramig published an article linking local economic competition for corn grain with land-use change under the federal Renewable Fuels Standard with partners in another state (Purdue University in Indiana) and country (ETH Zurich).

Ando published a paper in Environment and Resource Economics with former graduate student Aparna Howlader that shows the impact of forest conservation in Nepal on household wood gathering and consumption.

Ando worked with a multi-disciplinary team of researchers at many different institutions to write a paper that was published in Science evaluating the costs and possible benefits of ecological approaches to avoiding another pandemic like COVID-19.

Task 1-1, Activities

Gramig worked with a doctoral student to conduct a survey of Illinois farmers requested by the Illinois state Department of Agriculture to assess the first year of the Fall Covers for Spring Savings Cover Crop Insurance discount Program.

Gramig worked with doctoral student Hsin-Chieh Hsieh at UIUC, Prof. Michael Delgado at Purdue University and Prof. Shanxia Sun at Shanghai University to evaluate the impact of USDA conservation program expenditures by EQIP and CSP on ambient water quality in the Wabash (Indiana) and Illinois River basins. A working paper on the Wabash work is being finalized for submission, and different methods and empirical approaches are being explored for the Illinois work.

Gramig began new work with graduate student Menglin Liu and Prof. Nick Paulson at UIUC to investigate the relationship between adoption of precision agriculture technologies/practices and conservation practices using USDA-ERS Ag Resource Management Survey data.

Ando worked with graduate student Liqing Li to estimate the impact of bison restoration on local economic activity in the U.S. They have refined a manuscript on this research.

Task 1-2, Activities

Gramig worked with doctoral student to develop an analysis to quantify the impact of wildfires and smoke on National Park visitation in the Western US.

Ando completed revising and resubmitting a manuscript to Land Economics that informs management of flood hazards. She uses a contingent valuation survey to evaluate homeowner willingness to pay for a novel pre-flood agreement such that the homeowner pre-commits to relocating if a flood damages their home by more than 50% of its value, in exchange for which they gain an expedited and streamlined buyout process with payment equal to the full market value of their home. The study finds that nearly all homeowners would gain value from being able to enter into such a contract.

Task 1-3, Activities

Gramig provided public service by working with Current in the city of Chicago to develop an online survey of residents of the greater Chicago area on perceptions of and interactions with the Chicago River as part of Current’s H2Now project that is installing real-time water quality sensors for fecal coliform at multiple locations along the river in the city of Chicago that can be monitored online. The project is part of a broader effort to increase Chicagoans’ engagement with the river.

Task 1-4, Activities

Gramig published an article with Purdue co-authors on climate change impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in state of Indiana based on a multi-year, multi-institution interdisciplinary climate assessment completed for the state.

University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Published a paper titled “The Importance of Well Yield in Groundwater Demand Specification” in Land Economics. The paper shows that well yield is a key determinant of groundwater use for irrigation and ignoring it can lead to misleading policy conclusions.

Published a paper titled “Hydrologic-economic Trade-offs in Groundwater Allocation Policy Design” in Water Resources Research. The paper shows that groundwater allocation designs can have hydrologic and economic trade-off.

Published a paper titled “Synthesizing evidence about the opportunities and challenges for satellite-based monitoring of groundwater irrigation abstractions” in Water Resources Research. The paper shows that the use of remote sensing to estimate irrigation and use the estimates to regulate water use may cause significant welfare loss due to significant measurement errors in the estimates.

Published a paper titled “Effects of instantaneous groundwater availability on irrigated agriculture and implications for aquifer management” in Resource and Energy Economics. The paper theoretically and numerically shows the critical importance of considering well yield in designing groundwater policies.

University of Tennessee:

Analyzed how the optimal spatial budget distribution for protecting ecosystem services under two extreme market conditions result in different ecological-economic tradeoffs for balance between conservation and sustainable development.

University of Rhode Island:

A choice experiment was designed and will be administered online via Qualtrics a professional survey service. This survey aims to 1) determine Rhode Island consumers attitudes, preferences, and definition of local food 2) determine Rhode Island consumers awareness level of the local agricultural label and 3) determine if Rhode Island consumers are willing to pay more for local food marked with the local agricultural label. (Trandafir)

(Uchida) Project title: Crowding Effect of Subsidies and Social Nudges on Intrinsic Motivation for Contribution to a Common Pool Resource: Results from a Framed Field Experiment in Tanzania.  Accomplishments: This study investigates the impact of social nudges and incentives in the form of labor subsidy on activities to enhance a common pool resource, and whether this extrinsic motivation crowds out intrinsic motivation. To examine these questions, we develop a new framed field experiment in which the labor subsidies are presented as a treatment in combination with other social nudges: social norm, recognition, and shaming. The results of the random effect regression suggest that people are more cooperative and increase labor contribution when there is a high level of labor subsidy as well as with social nudges. However, when the high level of subsidy is offered with information about social norms, it crowded out intrinsic motivation. On average, subjects contributed 21 percent less to planting activities, compared to the baseline or their original contribution without any intervention. It suggests that subsidies will not always lead to more contribution to common pool resources, especially in contexts in which volunteering in public work has become a social norm. Instead, social nudges could be a more effective and cheaper option compared to subsidies.

Utah State University:

Task 1-1: Congestion (overuse) is a major issue at many national parks. In Utah, we document the degree to which the state's "Mighty Five" (M5) promotional campaign contributed to congestion at Utah's national parks. We find that the M5 did not add to congestion at Bryce Canyon or Zion--where automobile restrictions were already in place--but it increased visits at Utah's other three NPs. In particular, our model documented the proportion of increased visitation that could be attributed to the M5. The study had clear policy implications: with numerous outdoor recreation alternatives available in Utah, encouraging a share of NP visitors to go to those sites ("demarketing" the NPs) would decrease NP congestion and spread the economic benefits of tourism more broadly through southern Utah.

Obj. 1, Task 1-3: Though I did not anticipate participating in this task in the W-4133 proposal, I was involved in a study of recreation along Minnesota's North Shore. Our model estimated how trip numbers, timing, and duration would respond to changes in North Shore climate.

University of Wyoming:

Task 1.1

Project: “Determining the Value of Conservation Easements in Colorado.”  Rashford, B (PI), Investigators: D. McLeod, D. Bennett, B. Shaw. Milestones: Completed data collection and initial model estimation to determine risk of agricultural land conversion to residential uses in three CO counties. Activities: 1) Finalizing logit model of development risk and beginning estimation of propensity score matching model to determine the conservation easement value of existing agricultural parcel in three CO counties

Project: “Landowner Economics – Red Desert to Hoback Mule Deer Migration Corridor.”  Rashford, B (PI), Investigators: A. Nagler.  Sponsor: Wyoming Wildlife Federation.  Amount: $5,000. Milestones: Completed data collection and report writing to quantify the landowner and community benefits of investments in conservation activities to protect mule deer migration corridors in western WY. Activities: 1) Nagler, A., B. Rashford, and J. Bannon. 2021. RD2H Migration Corridor Landowner Benefits.  UW Extension Bulletin, In Review

Project: “Investigating Potential Impacts of Non-Attainment Risk on Conservation Exchange Outcomes.” Hansen, K. (PI), Co-PIs: C. Jones-Ritten, C. Bastian, A. Nagler.  Amount Requested: $74,317.  Submitted 9/30/2015.  Duration of Project: January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2018. Milestones: Research completed regarding habitat conservation markets using experimental economics methods. Activities: 1) A second outreach publication for this project has been drafted based on the research reported in the above article and will be in review for possible publication in 2021. 2) Working Title “Credit Failure Risk in Market-Based Conservation Programs: What Is It and Can It Be Helped?”

We have conducted an additional set of up experimental sessions investigating the potential for an insurance product to address landowner risk in the habitat exchange market.  Those experiments have been completed, analysis is completed, and a paper is being drafted. This paper has been slowed by COVID 

Task 1.4

Project: “Integrating sustainable socio-economic, ecological and technological innovation for achieving global climate stabilization through negative CO₂ emission policies” (Aug. 2016 – Jul. 2020).  PI: S. Ahmed (Montana State University); Rashford (UW-PI).  Sponsor: NSF EPSCoR.  Amount: $6,000,000 Milestones: Completed model estimation to determine probabilities of agricultural land-use conversion between grassland, cropland, rangeland and development in the Upper Missouri River Basin to determine land use response to climate change and climate change mitigation policies, such as incentives for cellulosic bioenergy production. Activities: 1) Estimated land-use conversion model using high-resolution satellite imagery data. 2) Completed farm-level budget models to understand the economics of producing switchgrass for climate change mitigation.

Project: “Pelletizing prairie for energy and landscape sustainability” (Sept. 2021 – Aug. 2023).  PI: Meghann Jarchow, University of South Dakota; Rashford (UW-PI).  Sponsor: NIFA, North Central Regional Sun Grant.  Amount: $450,000. Milestones: Grant proposal developed; to be submitted March 30, 2021.

Virginia Tech University:

Bayesian Meta-Regression: During the 2019/2020 reporting period, I started work on a novel Bayesian Locally-Weighted Meta-Regression (BLWR-MRM) approach to value water quality improvements as a result of USDA conservation efforts on agricultural lands. This analytical framework produces more accurate benefit transfer estimates than typical one-model-fits-all MRM strategies. I applied the model to an existing (and growing) meta-data set on willingness-to-pay (WTP) for water quality improvements from a variety of source studies.

Coastal flood risk: I continued work on Bayesian matching estimators for housing markets, with application to flood risk in New England. The main objective for this research is to determine the optimal number of matched control observations for each treated property. This past year I expanded my model diagnostics to also include distance statistics, balance statistics, and regression adjustment effects.

Red tide air toxins: I implemented a choice experiment to elicit Southwestern Florida residents' WTP for an improved forecasting systems for respiratory irritation levels related to red tide algal blooms. The survey also collected important baseline information on residents' outdoor activities, and past experiences with red tide outbreaks.

 Objective 2: Economic Valuation

Colorado State University:

We are using revealed preference methods with novel data (NRI point data) to examine tradeoffs and value the costs of increasing the adoption of agricultural practices that build soil carbon. We are using revealed preference methods to value residential landscape conformity.

Mississippi State University:

Investigator Petrolia and co-authors analyzed the use of nonmarket valuation methods and estimates in environmental regulatory analysis at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We examine trends in the literature over the last forty-five years and compare those trends to how often nonmarket benefits are monetized and which methods are used in 49 recent EPA Regulatory Impact Analyses. We also review EPA awarded research grants and their focus.

Investigator Petrolia and colleagues estimated the value of nonmarket ecosystem services provided by multiple oyster resource types.  Services included nutrient removal, shoreline protection / reduced erosion, and other fish habitat (blue crab and red drum).

Petrolia and colleagues conducted a meta-analysis of estimates of the value of nonmarket ecosystem services provided by shellfish and seaweed aquaculture.

North Carolina State University:

Research by von Haefen (NC State), Lupi (Michigan State) and Phaneuf (Wisconsin) develop best practices for the implementation of recreational demand models for policy analysis.  Results were published in REEP, a leading journal in environmental economics that strives to reach economists and policy analysts working in diverse fields. 

Oregon State University:

Alix-Garcia and collaborators published a paper showing how survey data can be collected through indirect informants rather than individual households.  This is useful for reducing the costs of many different survey applications.

Dundas and collaborator (w4133 member Roger von Haefen) published two papers that estimates non-market recreation impacts of climate change. In one, our estimates suggest that extreme heat significantly reduces recreation participation in shoreline fishing and we find evidence of climate-averting behavior as anglers shift their activities to nighttime rather than fish less frequently to mitigate the negative impacts from extreme heat. In the second, we compare how data structure (panel v. cross-section) and non-linearities in weather impact these nonmarket values and impacts from climate change.

Lewis collaborated with a U.S.D.A. Forest Service economist on a forthcoming paper that estimates the effects of climate on the net economic returns to forestland in the conterminous United States. Results indicate that climate change is projected to increase the net returns to forestry in the middle latitudes of the eastern U.S., and that most of estimated gains come from incentives to adapt on the extensive margin.

Pennsylvania State University:

Several projects also focus on economic valuation. These projects include methodological advances in nonmarket valuation as well as applying improvements in data and valuation methods to policy-relevant settings. Another objective for this goal is to better understand the distribution of public goods and the consequences for nonmarket valuation.

Projects under this goal include: 1) Arora, Brent, and Jaenicke (2020) show that there are distinct classes of Indian consumers in terms of how much they are willing to pay for lab-grown and plant-based meat. We categorize the four consumer classes as: veggie lovers, the meat lovers, the plant-based meat enthusiasts, and the clean meat enthusiasts. 2) Brent et al. (Working Paper) find differences in preferences when respondents' financial incentives are linked to their survey responses. The results are consistent with hypothetical bias of roughly 60%. 3) Brent, Cook, and Lassiter (Working Paper) show that eligibility and selection effects are important for evaluating the distributional consequences of green infrastructure policies. Wealthier households are eligible, but less wealthy households participate conditional on eligibility. 4) Choi, Ready, and Shortle (2020) present an algorithm for estimating the water quality benefits from implementing Best Management Practices (BMPs). A key feature of the algorithm is to capture benefits through a stream network downstream of the implementation and in- and off-stream benefits over the affected geography. It is applied to three watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay basin.

University of Florida:

Supported two PhD students. Published two peer-reviewed journal articles on valuation of fishery resources and endangered species. Presented related research at 2020 AAEA annual meeting and other invited seminars.

University of Illinois:

Task 2-1, Outputs

Ando has collaborated with other researchers at UIUC and in Missouri on research to estimate the values of water quality improvements in the Corn Belt. She and EPA economist Bryan Parthum wrote a paper reporting on a choice experiment that finds that both urban and rural residents of the Upper Sangamon River watershed place large value on achieving nutrient reduction targets to stop Gulf hypoxia and reducing local algal blooms. This paper was published in Land Economics.

Task 2-1, Activities

Gramig worked with doctoral student Seojeong Oh and interdisciplinary collaborators at UIUC to develop a choice experiment survey to be conducted in 2020 to estimate household willingness to pay to improve water quality (reduce nutrient pollution) in Illinois, Indiana and Iowa. This work is funded by the NSF.

Ando advised graduate student Liqing Li in research to understand how early life experience influences the values people have for nature when they are adults. They conducted a choice experiment survey eliciting people’s values for grassland restoration in Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa. Results show that willingness to pay for grasslands is higher for people who grew up near them. Additionally, people have higher value for specific recreational attributed such as trails and fishing ponds if they learned how to do those activities as children. This paper has been presented and is close to being ready for journal submission.

Ando wrote a paper with W4133 participant Dale Manning at Colorado State to estimate the benefits of pest control services by bats. This research uses the spread of white-nose syndrome to quantify the impact of bat population reductions on acres of crops planted and the net surplus gained by producers on the acres they do plant. It is under review at the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

Ando worked with graduate student Frederick Nyanzu, EPA economist Bryan Parthum, and W4133 partner Corey Lang at the University of Rhode Island on research funded by the USDA-NIFA to estimate the values people place on peri-urban conservation of natural and farmland areas and expansion of local food supply. That survey has been drafted and is almost ready to field.

Ando worked with W4133 partners in Oregon on choice-experiment research to estimate the values people place on different features of green roof installations in urban areas. That survey has been fielded and the data are ready to analyze.

Gramig developed a survey instrument and choice experiment with doctoral student to measure public willingness-to-pay for nutrient pollution reduction that includes assessment of “local” versus downstream (Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone) water quality attributes. This survey is being launched in April 2021.

University of Rhode Island:

Significant advances were made in two non-market valuation studies regarding utility-scale solar siting in New England. This is a contentious issue due to the significant land use requirements needed for solar and the common practice of siting these facilities on farm and forest lands. First, we developed a hedonic property model to estimate disamenities stemming from proximity to utility-scale solar. We find statistically significant negative impacts of about 1.6% on average for properties within 0.6 miles of an installation. Further, we find that impacts are greater for properties within 0.1 miles and properties surrounding farm and forest sites (as opposed to industrial sites). Second, we developed a choice experiment survey and conducted a web-push survey to 3000 Rhode Island residents. The results complement the hedonic results by providing valuation of individual attributes of the siting process. Results indicate that land use is the most important attribute and residents are willing to pay enough money in increased electricity bills to warrant offering large incentives for developers to target industrial and brownfield sites instead of farm and forest sites.

Presentations: Lang, Corey. “Property Value Impacts of Commercial-Scale Solar Energy in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.” URI Cooperative Extension Learn at Home webinar, September 29, 2020

Received Grant: Lang, Corey and Pearson-Merkowitz, Shanna “Leveraging Status Quo Bias to Preserve Farm, Forest, and Open Space Lands” USDA NIFA, 3/2021-3/2024, $500,000. This grant will citizen preferences and legislator preferences and actions related to land conservation.

Trandafir participated in a large scale solar farms project are commonly met with public opposition due to a perceived inequity in the distributions of benefits and costs for these projects. A choice experiment was designed to understand if community benefits agreements are perceived as a way to achieve distributive justice. Data were collected (357 responses) and we are currently analyzing it.

Virginia Tech University:

Free-form choice experiments: I developed the econometric framework to analyze the data to be expected from the large-scale watershed improvement survey in New England. The highlight of the statistical model is that it allows for variable uncertainty and model-averaging. This is important given the large number of candidate explanatory variables that could explain a household's response to the binary (yes/no) willingness-to-pay question collected in the survey. Over this past project year I applied the model to actual survey data, using a variety of spatially diverse quality indicators.

Objective 3: Integrated Policy and Decision-Making

Colorado State University:

We are seeking funding to build economic analysis into the COMET-Farm tool (https://comet-farm.com/), developed at CSU.

Mississippi State University:

Investigators Interis and Yun aggregated and tabulated meta-data from the literature to be used in a meta-regression-based benefits transfer to estimate the value of two ecosystem services across the Mississippi River basin: bird populations and surface water quality. They have worked with one MS student and two undergraduate researchers in collecting the data and developing preliminary models for regression analysis. They have presented or will be presenting this work at several meetings (NAREA 2020, W4133 2021, SAEA 2021, AAEA 2021 and at the Undergraduate Research Symposium Spring, 2021 at Mississippi State University).

Investigators Yun and Interis have used various sources to collect land cover and surface water quality data in order to examine the effect of land cover on surface water quality and the effect of how crop diversity is specified on model prediction.

Investigator Petrolia designed a decision tool for oyster resource managers to estimate market and non-market ecosystem benefits associated with multiple oyster resource types.

North Carolina State University:

Research by von Haefen, Eggleston and Cui (NC State) and Sutherland (Duke) examines the economic losses from declines in submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the Albemarle-Pamlico estuary.  Results will help federal, state, and local policy makers as the grapple with proposed changes to gear restrictions that could impact SAV acreage.

Northern Arizona University:

Julie Mueller of Northern Arizona University is the Lead Project Director for a United States Department of Agriculture, National Institute of Food and Agriculture: Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Foundational Grant, Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, “Valuing Springs Ecosystem Services to Inform Sustainable Forested Rangeland Management,” $499,926, awarded September 2020-September 2023. The proposed work incorporates non-market valuation into management solutions in the Coconino and Kaibab National Forests in the Western US.

Oregon State University:

Dundas collaborated with 12 other faculty across West Coast institutions on a paper noting the advantages of taking a portfolio approach to climate policy that include both terrestrial and marine solutions in the areas of renewable energy, habitat restoration, carbon storage, and food systems.

Lewis collaborated with two other Oregon State faculty on a forthcoming paper that estimates how the federal Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) – a large-scale conservation policy – has affected the economy of nearby communities. Results indicate that the NWFP induced skill sorting, where high skilled workers sorted into communities nearby protected NWFP lands.

Kling published the first bioeconomic framework for quantifying the value of timber resource measurement. Although measuring resource abundance is a routine activity, for the most part investment in information has been left out of standard economic models. This work provides a platform for efficiently planning both harvest and measurement of a forest resource. Potential future applications of the model include extension resources for small-scale private forest owners that outline when to measure their forest stand and how to use that information to adjust harvest planning.

Pennsylvania State University:

Brent and Beland (2020) show that peak traffic increases the response times of first responders by about 20%. Peak traffic also increases the monetary damages from fires by 10%.

Shortle et al. (2020) synthesizes research from multiple disciplines to develop a system approach to nutrient pollution management.

Royer et al. (2020) shares lessons learned and best practices from initiative to engage scientists, policy makers, and stakeholders in a shared discovery approach to developing solutions to nutrient pollution problems.

Colby and Zipp (2020) estimate that there are 8.1% more houses and flood damages that are 13% too high in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania due to flood insurance subsidies.

University of Illinois:

Task 3-2, Activities

Gramig worked with doctoral student to develop analysis of water quality trading system designs that integrate sediment and phosphorous markets to address the problems of sedimentation in Lake Decatur, P pollution from agri-processing industries and non-point source pollution from farms. This work was presented in a seminar setting that included practitioners working in the watershed.

Gramig mentored post-doctoral associate Bowen Chen at UIUC and worked with W-4133 member Prof. Seong Do Yun at Mississippi State University on a project for USDA-NRCS to quantify the on-farm benefits of agricultural conservation practices that are subsidized by federal agri-environmental programs (i.e. EQIP). This work also involves USDA-ERS through the use of data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) administered by NASS for ERS. This work will quantify how NRCS conservation practices economically impact farms that adopt them, and will be used to provide economically relevant information about these practices to NRCS customers evaluating alternative conservation strategies. This work is funded by NRCS.

Ando and W4133 partner Sahan Dissanayake in Oregon worked with graduate student Kaylee Wells on a cooperative agreement with the USDA to do a choice experiment survey of the values of different kinds of grassland restoration that is carefully tailored to inform legislative and agency decisions about the size and administration of the Conservation Reserve Program. The first survey has been designed and is almost ready to field.

Ando worked with researchers at UIUC, CUNY, and Argonne National Lab on their $NSF-INFEWS funded project to integrate ecosystem service valuation and physical/climatological modeling to study “Climate-induced extremes on the food, energy, water nexus (C-FEWS) and the role of engineered and natural infrastructure.” She has worked with graduate student Joseph Chang on an economic valuation model that takes inputs from coupled biophysical models to estimate the values of changes in things like carbon sequestration, crop yields, water pollution, and the cost of electricity production as a result of climate shocks.

University of Rhode Island:

(Uchida) Project title: Integrating public preferences with biophysical production possibilities: an application to ecosystem services from dam removal. Accomplishments: Increasing the provision of one ecosystem service often comes only at the expense of others. Effective management requires understanding the biophysical relationships governing these tradeoffs, as well as stakeholder preferences for the tradeoffs. In this paper we apply microeconomic principles of production and consumption to empirically identify efficient and socially desirable ecosystem service outcomes. We use a production possibilities model to quantify the tradeoffs among four ecosystem services from dam removal in Maine: hydropower, lake shoreline, herring, and Atlantic salmon. Then we conduct a choice experiment survey to understand public preferences for the services, using latent class analysis to group respondents with common preferences. Finally, we estimate indifference curves and combine them with the production possibilities model to identify preferred ecosystem service outcomes by group. Results indicate that stakeholders with apparently diverging values can sometimes agree on preferred outcomes when we account for the productive capacity of the ecosystem. Additionally, we find that the common practice of reducing multidimensional ecosystem service tradeoff analyses to two dimensions generates inconsistent results and lost welfare. Generally, our empirical application demonstrates the practical usability of this framework for incorporating diverse stakeholder preferences into ecosystem management planning, and identifying restoration projects likely to garner broad support.

University of Wyoming:

Recent Activity: A paper was written to address the unique economic challenges generated by conservation policy for migratory species. It is currently under review. Conte, Marc, Kristiana Hansen, Kyle Horton, Chian Jones Ritten, Leah H. Palm-Forster, Jason F. Shogren, Frank Wätzold, and Teal Wyckoff. “A Framework to Evaluate Mechanisms to Support Seasonal Migratory Species.” Review of Environmental and Economics Policy. Submitted November 2020.

Project: Land Conservation decisions and preferences for placing conservation easements on agricultural lands. Milestones: Research completed.  Recent Activity: A paper was written to address a literature synthesis and broadening economic concepts used to determine “Sense of Place” as a potential motivation for landowners to place easements on agricultural lands. It is currently in press and has not been given an issue and volume but is available online. An additional paper investigates the whether conservation ethic or intergenerational bequest are motivators in the decision for landowners to choose placing an easement on their land. This paper was accepted for publication in late 2020 and became available online in early view in February 2021. Forthcoming: 1) Bastian, C. T., C. M. Keske, D. L. Hoag, and D. M. McLeod. ‘Comment on Eaton et al.’s Reconceptualization of Economic Dependence in “Trouble with Sense of Place in Working Landscapes”, Society and Natural Resources (Currently in Press). Paper has been published in early view and available online but has not yet been assigned a volume and issue. See: https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2020.1823542.  2) Keske, C., A. Parker, J. E. Cross, and C. T. Bastian. “Does Conservation Ethic Include Intergenerational Bequest? A Random Utility Model Analysis of Conservation Easements and Agricultural Landowners,” Rural Sociology. (Currently in Press). Paper has been published in early view and available online but has not yet been assigned a volume and issue. See: https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12370

Virginia Tech University:

Free-form choice experiments: I developed the econometric framework to analyze the data to be expected from the large-scale watershed improvement survey in New England. The highlight of the statistical model is that it allows for variable uncertainty and model-averaging. This is important given the large number of candidate explanatory variables that could explain a household's response to the binary (yes/no) willingness-to-pay question collected in the survey. Over this past project year I applied the model to actual survey data, using a variety of spatially diverse quality indicators.

Publications (85 total)

Objective 1: Resource Management (43)

Ansah, E., M. Kaplowitz, F. Lupi and J. Kerr, 2020. Smallholder participation and compliance with sustainable cocoa certification, Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems. 44(1), 54-87.

Bayham, J., & Yoder, J. K. (2020). Resource allocation under fire. Land Economics, 96(1), 92-110.

        Bayham, Jude, and Eli P Fenichel. 2020. “Impact of School Closures for COVID-19 on the US Health-Care Workforce and Net Mortality: A Modelling Study.” The Lancet Public Health, April. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30082-7.

       Bayham, Jude and Alexandra Hill.  2020. Ensuring the Continued Functionality of Essential Critical Infrastructure Industries by Estimating the Workforce Impacts of COVID-19. Colorado State University, Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Beasley, W. J. and S. J. Dundas. 2021. Hold the Line:  Modeling Private Coastal Adaptation through Shoreline Armoring Decisions.  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 105: 102397. doi: 10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102397

Bocci, C., B. Sohngen, F. Lupi and B. Milian, 2020. Timber or Carbon? Evaluating forest conservation strategies through a discrete choice experiment, Ecological Economics. 171, 106601.

            Bowling LC, K Cherkauer, C Lee, J Beckerman, S Brouder, J Buzan, O Doering, J Dukes, P Ebner, J Frankenberger, BM Gramig, E Kladivko, J Volenec. "Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change in Indiana and Potential Adaptations." Climatic Change 163(4): 2005-2027, 2020.

Brent, Daniel A., Corey Lott, Michael Taylor, Joseph Cook, Kimberly Rollins, Shawn Stoddard, D. A. Brent, C. Lott, M. Taylor, and J. Cook. "What causes heterogeneous responses to social comparison messages for water conservation?" Environmental and Resource Economics, forthcoming.

      Brown, Jason, Peter Maniloff, and Dale Manning (2020). Spatially variable taxation and resource extraction: The impact of state oil taxes on drilling in the US. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.

Chahal, A., Ciolkosz, D., Puri, V., Liu, J. & Jacobson, M. (2020) Factors affecting wood-bark adhesion for debarking of shrub willow. Biosystems Engineering, 196: 202-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2020.05.019

Cho, S. Y. Lee, B.P. Sharma, and D.J. Hayes. 2021. “Do ecological-economic tradeoffs triggered by budget allocations for forest carbon sequestration change under different market conditions?” Sustainability Science, 16: 69-84.

      Dobson, A.P., S. Pimm, L. Hannah, L. Kaufman, J.A. Ahumada, A.W. Ando, A Bernstein, J. Busch, P. Daszak, J. Engelmann, M. Kinnaird, B. Li, T. Loch-Temzelides, T. Lovejoy, K. Nowak, P. Roehrdanz, M.M. Vale. 2020. “Ecology and economics for pandemic prevention.” Science 369(6502): 397-381. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc3189.

            Drugova, Tatiana, Man-Keun Kim, and Paul M. Jakus. 2020. “Marketing, Congestion, and Demarketing in Utah’s National Parks.” Tourism Economics. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620939722

Dundas, S. J. and D. J. Lewis. 2020. Estimating Option Values and Spillover Damages for

Coastal Protection: Evidence from Oregon’s Planning Goal 18.  Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 7(3): 519-554. doi: 10.1086/708092

Foster, T., Mieno, T., & Brozović, N. “Synthesizing evidence about the opportunities and chal- lenges for satellite-based monitoring of groundwater irrigation abstractions” Water Resources Research, 56(11)

Frimpong, E., D.R. Petrolia, A. Harri, and J.H. Cartwright.  2020. “Flood Insurance and Claims:  The Impact of the Community Rating System.”  Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy 42(2): 245-62.

            Hestetune, Adam, Paul M. Jakus, Chris Monz, and Jordan W. Smith. 2020. “Climate Change and Angling Behavior on the North Shore of Lake Superior (USA)” Fisheries Research, 231(105717). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105717

            Howlader A. and A. Ando. 2020. “Consequences of Protected Areas for Household Forest Extraction, Time Use, and Consumption: Evidence from Nepal.” Environmental and Resource Economics 75:769–808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00407-2

      Hrozencik, Aaron, Dale T. Manning, Jordan F. Suter, Christopher Goemans (conditionally accepted). Impacts of Block-Rate Energy Pricing on Groundwater Demand in Irrigated Agriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Jacobson, M., Ciolkosz, D. 2020. Plantation Forestry and Pellet Production in Kenya. Biomass and Bioenergy. Vol 135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2020.105519

Jones, J. A., and X. Bi. 2020. "Environmental Giving to Complex Regional Issues: Public Perceptions of Funding for an Initiative in Florida." International Journal of Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Marketing e1699.

Laird, H., C. Landry, S. Shonkwiler, and D.R. Petrolia.  "Riders on the Storm: Hurricane Risk and Coastal Insurance and Mitigation Decisions."  Forthcoming, Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics.

      Manning, Dale T., Mani Rouhi Rad, Jordan Suter, Chris Goemans, Zaichen Xiang, and Ryan Baily (2020).  Non-Market Valuation in Integrated Assessment Modeling: The Benefits of Water Right Retirement. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.

Mieno, T., Rouhi Rad, M., Suter, J., & Hrozensick, A. “The Importance of Well Yield in Groundwater Demand Specification” Land Economics, forthcoming

Miller, Z. D., H. Wu, K. Zipp, C. L. Dems, E. Smithwick, M. Kaye, P. Newman, A. Zhao, and A. Taylor. (2020) "Hunter and Non-Hunter Perceptions of Costs, Benefits, and Likelihood of Outcomes of Prescribed Fire in the Mid-Atlantic Region." Society & Natural Resources https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2020.1780359.

Minegishi, K. & Mieno, T. 2020 “Gold in Them Tha-R Hills: A Review of R Packages for Exploratory Data Analysis” Applied Economics Teaching Resources, 2(3):303913

Moffette, Fanny, Jennifer Alix-Garcia, Katherine Shea, and Amy Hudson Pickens. “The Impact of Near Real-Time Deforestation Alerts Across the Tropics.” Nature Climate Change (2021) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00956-w.

Parton, L C. and S. J. Dundas. 2020. Fall in the Sea, Eventually? A Green Paradox in Climate Adaptation for Coastal Housing Markets. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 104: 102381. doi: 10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102381

Rice, W. L., Taff, B. D., Miller, Z. D., Newman, P., Zipp, K. Y., Pan, B., Newton, J. N., & D’Antonio, A. (2020) "Connecting motivations to outcomes: A study of park visitors’ outcome attainment." Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism 29: xxxx https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2019.100272

Rice, W.L, P.B. Newman, B.D. Taff, Z.D. Miller, and K.Y. Zipp. (2020) "Beyond benefits: Toward a recreational ecosystem services management framework." Landscape Research 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1080/01426397.2020.1777956

Rimsaite, R., K. Fisher-Vanden, S. Olmstead, D. Grogan, 2020, “How well do U.S. western water markets convey economic information?" Forthcoming, Land Economics.

Rimsaite, R., K.A. Fisher-Vanden, S. Olmstead, 2020, “Learning from Historical Water Transfer in the United States: Are Gains from Trade Higher or Lower Under Water Stress?” Submitted, Environmental and Resource Economics

      Rouhi Rad, Mani, Dale T. Manning, Jordan F. Suter, Christopher Goemans (forthcoming).  Policy Leakage or Policy Benefit? Spatial Spillovers from Conservation Policies in Common Property Resources.  Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

Rouhi-Rad, M., Foster, T., Brozović, N., & Mieno, T. 2020 “Effects of instantaneous groundwater availability on irrigated agriculture and implications for aquifer management” Resource and Energy Economics, 59, 101129

Srivastava, L., et al., 2020. How will climate change affect provision and value of water from public lands in Southern California through the 21^st century? Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. 19, 117-149.

Suter, Jordan, Mani Rouhi Rad, Dale Manning, Chris Goemans, and Matthew Sanderson (forthcoming). Groundwater Depletion, Climate, and the Incremental Value of Groundwater.  Resource and Energy Economics.

        Thompson, Matthew P., Jude Bayham, and Erin Belval. 2020. “Potential COVID-19 Outbreak in Fire Camp: Modeling Scenarios and Interventions.” Fire 3 (3): 38. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3030038.

von Haefen, Roger H. “New Study Explores Climate Change Impacts on North Carolina Coastal Angling,” NC State Economist, Winter 2020.

            Wang Y, MS Delgado, JP Sesmero, BM Gramig. "Market Structure and the Effect of Ethanol Expansion on Land Allocation: A Spatially Explicit Analysis." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102(5): 1598-1622, 2020.

      Yang, H., F. Lupi, J. Zhang and J. Liu, 2020. Hidden cost of conservation: A demonstration using losses from human-wildlife conflicts under a payment for ecosystem services program. Ecological Economics. 169, 106462.

Yehouenou, L., K. Grogan, X. Bi, and T. Borisova. 2020. "Improving BMP Cost-Share Enrollment Rates: Insights from a Survey of Florida Farmers". Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 1-33.

Young, R., Foster, T., Mieno, T., Valocchi, A., & Brozović, N. “Hydrologic-economic Trade-offs in Groundwater Allocation Policy Design” Water Resources Research, doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027941 

Zaveri, E., D.H. Wrenn, and K.A. Fisher-Vanden, 2020, “The Impact of Water Access on Short-Term Migration in Rural India.” Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 64(2):505-532. doi: 10.1111/1467-8489.12364

Objective 2: Economic Valuation (16)

Alix-Garcia, Jennifer, Katharine R.E. Sims, and Laura Costica. “Better to be direct? Testing the accuracy and cost-savings of community leader surveys for poverty targeting,” World Development (2021).

Burkhardt, J., Chan, N., Bollinger, B., Gillingham, K. (2021). Conformity and Conservation: Evidence from home landscaping and water conservation. Accepted: American Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Dundas, S. J., and R. H. von Haefen. 2021. The Importance of Data Structure and Non-

linearities in Estimating Climate Impacts on Outdoor Recreation. Natural Hazards. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04484-w

Dundas, S. J. and R. H. von Haefen. 2020. The Effects of Weather on Recreational Fishing

Demand and Adaptation:  Implications for a Changing Climate.  Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 7(2): 209-242. doi: 10.1086/706343

Goeb, J., A. Dillon, F. Lupi and D. Tschirley. 2020. Pesticides: What you don’t know can hurt you. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. 7(5), 801-836.

Gong, Y., X. Bi, and Wu, J. 2020. "Willingness to Pay for the Conservation of the Endangered Red-Crowned Crane in China: Roles of Conservation Attitudes and Income." Forest Policy and Economics (120) 102296.

Howard, G., B. Roe, M. Interis, and J. Martin. 2020. “Addressing Attribute Value Substitution in Discrete Choice Experiments to Avoid Unintended Consequences.” Environmental and Resource Economics, 77(4): 813-838.

Hwang, J. , X. Bi, N. Morales, and E. Camp. 2020. "The Economic Value of Freshwater Fisheries in Florida: An Application of the Travel Cost Method for Black Crappie Fishing Trips." Fisheries Research (223) 105752.

Lupi, F., D. Phanuef and R. von Haefen. 2020. Best practice in recreation demand analysis, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 14(2): 282-301.

Mihiar, C., and D.J. Lewis. 2021. "Climate, adaptation, and the value of forestland: A national Ricardian analysis of the United States." Land Economics (Forthcoming).

      Parthum, B. and A.W. Ando. 2020. “Overlooked benefits of nutrient reductions in the Mississippi River Basin.” Land Economics.

Penn J and W Hu. 2021. The Extent of Hypothetical Bias in Willingness to Accept. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 103(1):126-141.

Penn J and W Hu. 2020. Mitigating hypothetical bias by defaulting to opt-out in an online choice experiment. Applied Economics. 53(3):315-328.

Petrolia, D.R., D. Guignet, J.C. Whitehead, C. Kent, K. Amon, and C. Caulder.  "Nonmarket Valuation in the Environmental Protection Agency's Regulatory Process."  Forthcoming, Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy, https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13106.

Petrolia, D.R. and J. Hwang.  2020.  "Accounting for Attribute Non-Attendance in Three Previously Published Choice Studies of Coastal Resources."  Marine Resource Economics 35(3, July): 219-40.

Reeling, C., V. Verdier and F. Lupi. 2020. Valuing Goods Allocated via Dynamic Lottery. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. 7(4), 721-749.

Objective 3: Integrated Policy and Decision-Making (26)

Amin, M.M., Veith, T.L., Shortle, J.S., Karsten, H.D. and Kleinman, P.J., 2020. Addressing the spatial disconnect between national‐scale total maximum daily loads and localized land management decisions. Journal of Environmental Quality, 49(3), pp.613-627.

Bauchet, Jonathan, Nigel Asquith, Zhao Ma, Claudia Radel, Ricardo Godoy, Laura Zanotti, Diana Steele, Benjamin M. Gramig, and Andrea Estrella Chong. "The practice of Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) in the Tropical Andes: Evidence from program administrators." Ecosystem Services 45 (2020): 101175.

Bayham, J., Belval, E. J., Thompson, M. P., Dunn, C., Stonesifer, C. S., & Calkin, D. E. (2020). Weather, risk, and resource orders on large wildland fires in the western us. Forests, 11(2), 169.

Berman, J. D., Bayham, J., & Burkhardt, J. (2020). Hot under the collar: A 14-year association between temperature and violent behavior across 436 US counties. Environmental Research, 191, 110181.

Brent, Daniel, and Louis-Philippe Beland. "Traffic congestion, transportation policies, and the performance of first responders." Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2020): 102339

Burkhardt, J., Bayham, J., Wilson, A., Berman, J. D., O'Dell, K., Ford, B., ... & Pierce, J. R. (2020). The relationship between monthly air pollution and violent crime across the United States. Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 9(2), 188-205.

Chen, Y., Lewis, D.J., and B. Weber. 2021. “Amenities and skill sorting: A case study of land conservation policy.” The Annals of Regional Science (Forthcoming).

Colby, S. and K.Y. Zipp. (2020) "Excess Vulnerability from Subsidized Flood Insurance: Housing Market Adaptation When Premiums Equal Expected Flood Damage" Climate Change Economics https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007820500128.

Cook, A. and Shortle, J., 2021. Pollution Trading with Transport Time Lags.  R&R for publication in Environment and Resource Economics.

Dundas, S. J., A. S. Levine, R .L. Lewison, A. N. Doerr , C. White , A. W. E. Galloway, C.

Garza, E. L. Hazen, J. Padilla-Gamino, J. F. Samhouri, A. Spalding, A. Stier and J. W. White. 2020. Integrating Oceans into Climate Policy: Any Green New Deal Needs a Splash of Blue.  Conservation Letters 13(5): e12716. doi: 10.1111/conl.12716

Fisher-Vanden, K., J. Weyant, 2020, “The Evolution of Integrated Assessment: developing the next generation of use-inspired IA tools.” Annual Review of Resource Economics, 12:20.1-20.17, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-110119-030314

Griffin, Robert, Adrian Vogl, Stacie Wolny, Stefanie Covino, Eivy Monroy, Heidi Ricci, Richard Sharp, Courtney Schmidt, Emi Uchida. (2020) When to include additional pollutants into an integrated assessment model for estimating non-market benefits from water quality? Land Economics 96(4): 457-477

Hashida, Y., Withey, J., Lewis, D.J., Newman, T., and J. Kline. 2020. “Anticipating changes in wildlife habitat induced by private forest owners’ adaptation to climate change and carbon policy.” PLOS ONE, 15(4): e0230525.

Horan, R., and Shortle, J., 2021. The Song Remains Not the Same: Correlated Intercept and Slope Uncertainties Matter to Prices vs Quantities. Forthcoming (July). Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists

Li, S. X Cai, SA Emaminejad, A Juneja, S Niroula, SJ Oh, K Wallington, RD Cusick, BM Gramig, S John, G McIsaac, V Singh. “Developing an Integrated Technology-Environment-Economics Model to Simulate Food-Energy-Water Systems in Corn Belt Watersheds.” Manuscript under review.

Lupi, F., B. Basso, C. Garnache, J. Herriges, D. Hyndman, and R. Stevenson. 2020 Linking agricultural nutrient pollution to the value of freshwater ecosystem services, Land Economics. 96(4): 493–509.

Petrolia, D.R., F. Nyanzu, J. Cebrian, A. Harri, J. Amato, and W.C. Walton.  2020.  "Eliciting Expert Judgment to Inform Management of Diverse Oyster Resources for Multiple Ecosystem Services."  Journal of Environmental Management 268 (August):  110676.

Preisendanz, H.E., Veith, T.L., Zhang, Q. and Shortle, J., 2020. Temporal inequality of nutrient and sediment transport: a decision-making framework for temporal targeting of load reduction goals. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1), p.014005.

Reeling, C., Horan, R., Shortle, J., 2021. Permit markets benefit from cost-based trade ratios when emission targets are exogenous. R&R for publication in Environment and Resource Economics.

Royer, M.B., Brooks, R.P., Shortle, J.S. and Yetter, S., 2020. Shared discovery: A process to coproduce knowledge among scientists, policy makers, and stakeholders for solving nutrient pollution problems. Journal of Environmental Quality. 49(3), pp. 603-612.

Sanchirico, James N., Julie C. Blackwood, Ben Fitzpatrick, David M. Kling, Suzanne Lenhart, Michael G. Neubert, Katriona Shea, Charles B. Sims, and Michael R. Springborn. 2020. "Political economy of renewable resource federalism." Ecological Applications: e2276.

Shortle, J.S., Mihelcic, J.R., Zhang, Q. and Arabi, M., 2020. Nutrient control in water bodies: A systems approach. Journal of Environmental Quality, 49(3), pp.517-533.

Shortle, J., Ollikainen, M., Iho, A., 2021. Water Quality and Agriculture: Economics and Policy for Nonpoint Source Water Pollution. Palgrave. Forthcoming

Sloggy, M. R., Kling, D. M., Plantinga, A. J. (2020). Measure twice, cut once: Optimal inventory and harvest under volume uncertainty and stochastic price dynamics. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 103: 102357.

Stephenson, K., Easton, Z., Shabman, L., Shortle, J., 2020. Ag payments to control nutrients should be based on results. Bay Journal.  https://www.bayjournal.com/opinion/forum/ag-payments-to-control-nutrients-should-be-based-on-results/article_28e9075a-3556-11eb-97e5-539334c28802.html

Sutherland, Sara, von Haefen, Roger H. Eggleston, David, and Jie Cao. “Economic Valuation of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation within the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary,” Final Report submitted to the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality and the Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Partnership, Raleigh, NC, February, 2021, 61 pages.

2021 Meeting Abstracts

SESSION 1: HABs, Tsunamis, & Invasive Species

Title:               Harmful algal blooms and toxic air: The economic value of improved forecasts

Authors:         Klaus Moeltner, Tracy Fanara, Hosein Foroutan, Regina Hanlon, Vince Lovko,                             Shane Ross, David Schmale III

W4133 obj.:   1, 2

Presenter:      Klaus Moeltner

Email:             moeltner@vt.edu

Abstract:        The adverse economic impacts of harmful algal blooms can be mitigated via                                  tailored forecasting methods. Adequate provision of these services requires                                    knowledge of the losses avoided, or, in other words, the economic benefits they                             generate. The latter can be difficult to measure for broader population segments,                          especially if forecasting services or features do not yet exist. We illustrate how                              Stated Preference tools and Choice Experiments, commonly used for the                                        economic valuation of health and ecosystem services, are well-suited for this case.                        Using as example forecasts of respiratory irritation levels associated with airborne                        toxins caused by Florida red tide, we show that short-term predictions of spatially                         and temporally refined air quality conditions are valued highly by the underlying                                 population. This reflects the numerous channels and magnitude of red tide                                            impacts on locals' life and activities, which are also highlighted by our study. Our                               value estimates constitute an important input to determine the societal net benefits                   of implementing an improved forecasting system along the lines suggested in our                                 experiment. Our approach is broadly applicable to any type of air quality                                                 impediment with risk of human exposure.

Title:               Estimating economic damages of HAB and bacterial warnings in the Great Lakes

Authors:         Greg Boudreaux, Frank Lupi, Brent Sohngen

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-2), 2 (Task 2-1), 3 (Tasks 3-2, 3-3)

Presenter:      Greg Boudreaux

Email:             Gregory.l.boudreaux@usace.army.mil

Abstract:        This paper estimates economic damages caused by harmful algal blooms (HABs) and bacteria warnings at all public sandy beaches spanning 300 miles of shoreline along Lake Erie and Lake St Clair using a combination of revealed preference data from site intercepts and stated preference data from online surveys. Following an on-site sampling schedule that randomized times and locations, interview teams went to all 28 sandy beaches from the Ohio-Pennsylvania border to Northern Lake St Clair. At each site, teams counted visitors and interviewed a random subset of them. The short intercept interviews provided data such as demographic information and travel distances for economic demand models for over 4,200 visitors. In a follow up survey, we collected stated preference data that indicates people’s reactions to the threat of HAB and bacterial warnings.  Combining the sampling design weights and site counts allows us to estimate the number of visits a site receives from each origin zip code. With the visitation data, we estimate a multi-site demand model for beaches. This model provides estimates of visitation to each site under unchanged conditions, which are then calibrated via contraction mapping to estimates of the percentage of visitors who would have still visited their intercept site under alternate HAB and bacteria scenarios. Our estimation procedure combines the survey data with visitor’s actual trip data to allow us to value both site closures and the impacts of HAB and bacterial threats. Results contribute to beach management when facing impacts on beaches, both through the values for preventing site closures by providing insight into potential impacts of HAB and bacterial threats.

Title:               Tsunami risk and information shocks: Evidence from the Oregon housing market

Author:          Amila Hadziomerspahic

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-2)

Presenter:      Amila Hadziomerspahic

Email:             amila.hadziomerspahic@oregonstate.edu

Abstract:        Estimating risk perceptions related to natural disasters is critical to understanding behavioral responses of individuals and adaptive capacity of communities. Developed coastlines experience hazard risk from sources with different frequency and intensity, such as flooding, storm surges, and sea-level rise. In the Pacific Northwest, there is an additional high severity but very low frequency risk: the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake and tsunami. This paper investigates the impact of tsunami risk information on coastal residents’ risk perceptions, as capitalized into coastal property prices, using difference-in-differences and triple differences hedonic frameworks. I study the coastal Oregon housing market response to three sets of risk signals: two exogenous events - the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami and the July 20, 2015 New Yorker article “The Really Big One”; a hazard planning change – the 2013 release of new official tsunami evacuation maps; and visual cues of tsunami risk – blue lines indicating the spatial extent of the hazard zone installed by Oregon’s Tsunami Blue Line project. For the first analysis, I find preliminary evidence that the Tohoku earthquake was capitalized into house prices. Results suggest that a property inside the primary tsunami inundation zone sells for 6-8% less than a property outside of the zone after the Tohoku event. Thus, exogenous tsunami risk signals may shift homebuyers’ subjective risk perceptions to better match the objective risks of the Cascadia event. This suggests a salient risk signal may be able to successfully communicate the risk of a Cascadia event and induce individuals to take preparedness actions. Given Oregon’s current and chronic under-preparedness for a Cascadia event, additional policies are needed to mitigate hazard risk. This motivates my second and third analyses of state policies designed to convey risk signals. Here I will describe my identification strategies as the analyses are still in process.

Title:               A Sentiment Analysis Approach to Identifying Biased Responses to a Single-Shot                           Contingent Valuation Question

Author:          Brian Vander Naald, Sonja Kolstoe

W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2-1)

Presenter:      Brian Vander Naald

Email:             brian.vandernaald@drake.edu

Abstract:        The protection of at-risk species (listed and non-listed), prevention and mitigation of invasive species and climate change, are all topics that have the potential to trigger strong responses from respondents in stated choice surveys. Some strong responses may actually be biased (e.g. protest or warm glow) or suggest scenario rejection, traditionally all reasons for excluding responses from analysis. The current standard is to use purposeful questions to identify these responses. However, this strategy may be overlooking information from open-ended responses. We use a form of text analysis called sentiment analysis to identify and categorize the open-ended responses to our comments question at the end of our stated preference as positive, negative or neutral. The contingent valuation (CV) question is a single-shot donation. In it, respondents are asked whether they would donate a fixed amount to the help The Nature Conservancy develop an Invasive Species Rapid Response Fund to protect The Nature Conservancy's Waikamoi Preserve, which is the single-largest privately held nature preserve in the state of Hawai'i. Waikamoi Preserve's vast `Ōhi'a-dominant forest is the last stronghold for 63 species of rare plants and 10 species of birds, five of them endangered. These species are threatened by the introduction of invasive species and climate change. Respondents were told that the fund would be used to detect and quickly mitigate incipient invasive species, including Rapid `Ōhi'a Death, a potential threat to threat the conservation easement managed by The Nature Conservancy. ROD is already an immediate threat to Hawaiian forests and has already killed large quantities of Ōhi'a trees since it was first found on the Big Island of Hawai’i in 2014. We compare the WTP results based on using standard debriefing questions vs. sentiment analysis as well as the combination of the two to identify and exclude biased responses.

SESSION 2: Birds & Fish

Title:               Valuing the Service of Birds with Meta-Analysis

Authors:         Matthew G. Interis, Seong Yun, Jessica Browne

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (task 2-3)

Presenter:      Matthew G. Interis

Email:             m.interis@msstate.edu

Abstract:        Since the Renewable Fuel Standard was initiated in 2007, increased bioenergy crop production has become one of the main drivers of land-use changes (LUC) in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). Despite relatively abundant literature on LUC and ecosystem services changes, less attention has been given to how ecosystem service values are affected by bioenergy crop production, i.e., by changes in the crop mix in working agricultural land. In this study we partially fill this gap by estimating the value of changes in bird populations, one of the critical ecosystem services directly affected by LUC resulting from bioenergy crop production. We use meta-regression to estimate a benefits transfer function. The literature on valuation of bird services is relatively small, however, and the variety of measures of the relevant ecosystem change within this small literature creates a challenge in creating a data set for meta-regression. After summarizing these measures in the literature, we ultimately tabulate a data set of 91 observations from five different studies in which the value of a change in the number of birds is estimated. Explanatory variables include the guild of the bird under consideration and whether the species is endangered or threatened. With the estimated benefits transfer function, we use ecologist-generated estimates of bird population changes from biofuels-related LUC to estimate the value of changes in bird populations resulting from historical and predicted future LUC in the MRB. This work is part of a larger project on future LUC resulting from climate change and biofuels policy might affect the value of ecosystem services in the MRB.

Title:               Position-dependent attribute order effects in the presence of charismatic and non-                         charismatic birds

Authors:         Sonja Kolstoe, Brian Vander Naald, Alison Cohan

W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2-1), 3 (task 3-1)

Presenter:      Sonja Kolstoe

Email:             sonja.kolstoe@usda.gov        

Abstract:        Position-dependent attribute order effects are a concern to stated preference researchers because if they are present, they may result it in systematic differences in willingness to pay (WTP) for attributes. We test for the presence of position-dependent attribute ordering effects of endangered and threatened bird species embedded in a discrete choice experiment looking to value a birding-focused hike option into a conservation easement managed by The Nature Conservancy (TNC). The four main bird species in the conservation easement that attract visitors to the site were included as attributes in the birding hike choice task and were randomized. We include two forms of randomizations of the four featured bird species in the choice task: (1) we randomize the order of two yellow endemic bird species of different endangered status to be first or last, the kiwikiu or Maui Parrotbill (critically endangered) and the endemic `alauahio or Maui creeper (not currently listed as threatened) and (2) we randomize the order of the two most charismatic bird species in the second and third position the `ākohekohe or Crested Honeycreeper (endangered) and i`iwi or Scarlet Honeycreeper (threatened). In addition, we randomize the position of the attribute the chance of introducing invasive species, to include Rapid `Ōhi'a Death (ROD), to be either above or below the attributes with images. We only find evidence of attribute order effects for the Scarlet Honeycreeper and find lower WTP values for when it is featured in the third position relative to the second. Of the four species presented in the choice card, the Scarlet Honeycreeper is likely the most widely known due to: (1) being selected by the American Bird Association to be its “Bird of the Year” in 2018 and (2) being listed as “Threatened” under the federal Endangered Species Act as of 2017.

Title:               Real Choice Experiments Generate Consistent Results Regardless of the Number                          of Choice Sets

Authors:         Jerrod Penn, Wuyang Hu

W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2-1)

Presenter:      Jerrod Penn

Email:             JPenn@agcenter.lsu.edu

Abstract:        Real Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) have been touted as a way of eliminating Hypothetical Bias (HB), asserting that by allowing one of the randomly determined choice sets binding or with real payment consequences, the choices made throughout the choice sets all represent real preferences. While a binding choice set exists over the entire DCE is certain, the probability per DCE choice set being binding is 1/n, where n is the total number of choice sets. The assertion that the existence of one binding choice set induces choices in all n choice sets to be real suggests preferences are equivalent regardless of the probability of a choice set being real. In reality, the chance of selection for a choice set being real in a 4-set DCE is four times greater than a 16-set DCE. One may question whether the number of choice sets may potentially affect responses. The question stems from observed behavior in payment consequentiality studies, with willingness to pay (WTP) decreasing as the probability of payment (e.g. payment consequentiality) increases. This study investigates whether there is a behavioral response to the number of choice sets in a real DCE. We show that the number of choice sets presented in the real DCE does not affect outcomes, meaning that the probability of any choice set being binding does not alter preferences.

 SESSION 3: Where We Live

Title:               Valuation of Urban Greenspace and Incorporating Question Time  to Improve                               Choice Experiment Analysis

Authors:         Jake Kennedy, Sahan Dissanayake, Randall Bluffstone, Jeff Kline

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (task 2-1)

Presenter:      Jake Kennedy and Sahan Dissanayake

Email:             jakekennedy@pdx.edu ; sdissan2@gmail.com   

Abstract:      Accounting for attention and attribute non-attendance in choice experiment studies becomes more important with the increased use of online surveys to conduct stated preference research. In this presentation we share results from a choice experiment that uses a novel but easily implementable approach of tracking time spent on each choice question to improve the results. We use an application on understanding the values and preferences for urban forests and greenspaces to highlight the value of incorporating questioning timing into the analysis. Urban forests and green spaces are known to offer a variety of important use and non-use ecosystem service benefits for residents and each dollar spent on enhancing urban tree cover generates $1.37 - $3.09 per year in benefits. At the same time there are growing concerns about environmental justice issues surrounding how benefits from urban green space are distributed across socio-economic groups. Our application explores the use, barriers to use, and preferences and values for urban green space and how they vary across socio-demographic factors. We conduct the study in Portland, Oregon, an ideal location to explore these issues given the over 17,000 acres of park and urban natural areas that exist within the city boundaries. The data collection was conducted July through September 2020. Initial results highlight that while residents in the greater Portland area value and access urban green space, there are significant barriers and that these barriers vary across demographic groups. In analyzing the detailed timing information, we find evidence of learning, with the first choice question answered by the respondents taking more than twice as long as the last (7th) choice question. We also find that across all the choice questions, the estimation results are insignificant for the fastest 25% of the respondents and then excluding these respondents improves the efficiency of the overall estimates.

Title:               Text v. Images: Why Survey Design Matters for Choice Experiments

Authors:         Noelwah R. Netusil, Sahan Dissanayake, Lauren Rabe, Amy Ando

W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2-1)

Presenter:      Noelwah R. Netusil

Email:             netusil@reed.edu

Abstract:        The use of images in choice experiments has grown: our recent survey of studies published in top-tier journals found that about 66% of studies used images in their choice cards in 2020, up from only 15% in 2011. While several best practices articles have focused on the importance of how a survey is worded, structured, and implemented, the literature on how attribute information is presented to respondents is quite limited. Shr et al. (2019) investigated the use of images or text in choice cards, while other studies have explored the effect of images and verbal explanations (Eppink et al. 2019), images and videos (Rid et al. 2018) and text and virtual reality displays (Patterson et al. 2017; Bateman et al. 2009). Results are mixed with some studies finding that results improve with visual information (Bateman et al. 2009; Shr et al. 2019) while others find that more complex displays of information result in decreased choice consistency (Eppink et al. 2019; Rid et al. 2018). We contribute to this literature by investigating the effect of using high-quality images or text in a choice experiment to estimate values and preferences for green roof attributes in Portland, Oregon. Preliminary results using conditional logit and mixed multinomial logit models show statistically significant differences for some attributes based on whether respondents saw images or only text. We also find evidence of heterogeneity for certain attributes when respondents saw an image, while for other attributes we find heterogeneity when respondents saw only text. Overall, we find that survey design (images versus text) has an effect on the significance, magnitude and dispersion of some estimated coefficients, which highlights the importance of integrating how attributes are represented into the survey design process.           

Title:               Valuing Impacts of Proximity to Saguaro National Park on House Prices

Authors:         Julie Mueller, John Loomis, Leslie Richardson, Ryan A. Fitch

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 3 (task 3-2)

Presenter:      Julie Mueller

Email:             Julie.Mueller@nau.edu          

Abstract:        Saguaro National Park is adjacent to the Tucson Metropolitan Area, with a population of around one million. Previous research elsewhere has found positive house price premiums for homeowners living proximate to open space and federal public lands such as National Wildlife Refuges. However, this effect has not been studied for homeowners living proximate to National Parks. To the authors’ knowledge, we present the first estimate of the impact of National Parks on nearby property values. We compare the standard constant house price premium with two models that introduce nonlinearity in the implicit price of proximity to Saguaro National Park and demonstrate the varying effect of distance on the implicit price.  

                        We use a hedonic property model to estimate the value of proximity to Saguaro National Park on housing prices in Tucson, Arizona. Our dataset contains single family home sales from 2015 to 2019 (n=20,877). Preliminary results show a statistically significant and positive influence of proximity to Saguaro National Park. In addition to a rich set of structural, neighborhood and demographic attributes, we also include distance measures to other public lands without National Park designation. We investigate three ways of modeling proximity of a house to Saguaro National Park: (1) standard distance the home is to the Park; (2) distance and distance squared; (3) grouping houses by distance bands. Results using the standard distance indicate a 2.9% drop in house price per 1 km increase in distance to Saguaro. The model incorporating distance squared demonstrates a price premium of 4.3% for houses closest to the Park and diminishes to zero at approximately 11 km from the Park. The distance band model price premium ranges from 12.74% for the nearest houses to 2% for houses 2-3km away. Our results provide insight for policymakers regarding community benefits of National Parks and National Park designation.

 SESSION 4: Measurement and Data

Title:               Multi-state financial data for use with the Agricultural Conservation Planning                              Framework (ACPF)

Authors:         Emma Bravard, Dave James, Emily Zimmerman, John Tyndall

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 3 (task 3-1)

Presenter:      Emma Bravard

Email:             ebravard@iastate.edu

Abstract:        The Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework (ACPF) is a GIS-based conservation planning tool that uses high-resolution elevation and water flow data to spatially identify critical source areas for nitrogen loss within agricultural watersheds. The ACPF allows users to explore different Best Management Practice opportunities and analyze potential nutrient loss reduction outcomes. We’ve developed 1) a multi-state financial data set; and 2) a field-scale nitrogen reduction tool for use when analyzing different conservation scenarios. This financial and expected field scale nitrogen loss data is used to calculate total long term cost and cost effectiveness of various conservation plans.  To create financial data we calculated direct long-term annualized costs for BMP installation and management in the following states - Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Financial assessments were done with enterprise budgets and discounted cash flow techniques. The tool quantifies the nitrogen requirements for each field, based on 6-year land-use data, and evaluates the proportion of that nitrogen that is likely to be lost from the field via leaching as N load. Practices accounted for are drainage management, grassed waterways, cover crops, contour buffer strips/ prairie strips, water and sediment control basins, bioreactors, saturated buffers, nutrient removal wetlands, and multi-species and grassed riparian buffers. Land use opportunity costs of BMPs that require removing cropped/pastured land from production (e.g., grassed waterways, vegetative filter strips, buffer strips, wetlands), are spatially determined according to state-relevant weighted-average crop productivity indices and land rent relationships. The combination of this data will assist water quality stakeholders and technical service providers determine where conservation practices should be placed on the landscape to yield the most effective and lowest cost Nitrate-N reduction at a watershed scale.  We illustrate how these financial analyses can be accomplished with the ACPF using case study watersheds in Iowa and Illinois.

Title:               Monitoring Recreation Visitation in the National Forest System

Authors:         Don English, Eric White, Luanne Lohr

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-3)

Presenter:      Don English

Email:             Donald.English@usda.gov    

Abstract:        The USDA Forest Service (FS) measures the volume and character of recreation visitation through its national visitor monitoring program.  That same program provides data needed to estimate the market effects and nonmarket benefits of recreational use of NFS lands.  The comprehensive sampling approach it employs allows expansion from the onsite sample to the entire population of forest visitation.  By October 2019, three national iterations of data had been collected.  The Covid-19 pandemic imposed several limitations to the data collection process starting in March 2020.  Concerns about safety of visitors and field personnel, stay-at-home orders, and site closures all played a role.  Many of the same limits are in play for 2021.  As social media data becomes more ubiquitous, ongoing research is examining how those data might be used to augment and improve the estimates of visitation that this program generates.

                        This presentation reviews the sampling process that underlies the FS data and highlights the benefit measures for which it has been used thus far.  We also discuss the adjustments made in response the pandemic and give indications of how visitation changed during the summer of 2020.  Finally, we discuss likely future development of and additions to the program and applications that can be made of the data. 

Title:               An Analysis of Agricultural Intensification and Crop Diversity: Contemporary                              Crop Diversity and Predicted Changes by Bioenergy Consumption Scenarios

Authors:         Seong Yun, Matthew Interis

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1)

Presenter:      Seong Yun

Email:             seong.yun@msstate.edu        

Abstract:        It is a well-studied fact that changing landscape affects ecosystem services. Particularly, agricultural expansion and intensification are considered major drivers of biodiversity loss, soil and freshwater degradation, and greenhouse gas emission. In the literature, agricultural lands are generally categorized into one landscape (e.g., “agriculture”) and supposed to provide homogenous (dis)ecosystem services. Recent studies, however, demonstrate that crop mixture or crop diversity could provide heterogeneous ecosystem benefits and reduce monocultural pressure on the ecosystem. Besides, precision agriculture is designed and targeted to maximize these ecosystem benefits from crop diversity. Cover crops and conservation agriculture are representative examples of increased heterogeneity in agricultural fields and enhanced ecosystem services. To study the impact of crop diversity on ecosystem services, measuring how diverse crop plantations in agricultural lands are, is crucial. The areal size or percentage of each crop is a reasonable initial approach. However, while these measures measure the scale of each crop, they do not present the diversity or the level of heterogeneity. This study suggests modifying the biodiversity index (e.g., Shannon index, Renyi entropy index, or Gini-Simpson index) to apply it to crop acreage. To measure the changes of crop diversity in contemporary periods, we build land-use acreage data (20 for agricultural categories and 7 for others) using the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), calculate the various diversity indices, and discuss the results. We also analyze the changes of these indices with the POLYSYS simulation models (a partial equilibrium model of crop production responses to consumption scenarios) under various renewable fuel crop production and energy consumption scenarios.

Title:               Public access, ecological integrity, and the value of grassland restoration

Authors:         Amy Ando, Sarah Cline, Sahan Dissanayake, Rich Iovanna, Kaylee Wells

W4133 obj.:   1 (tasks 1-1, 1-3)

Presenter:      Amy Ando

Email:             amyando@illinois.edu

Abstract:        Grassland, or prairie, ecosystems provide many benefits to society including species habitat, carbon sequestration, soil erosion control, and recreational opportunities. At the same time, grassland ecosystems in North America are disappearing, with grassland loss in most areas exceeding 80% since the mid-1800’s; in Illinois the loss is 99.9%.  The USDA protects and restores grasslands through the Conservation Reserve Program. However, it is more costly for farmers to plant high quality grassland habitat on CRP acres, and much remains unknown about public willingness to pay (WTP) for grassland restoration projects and how that varies with grassland quality and public access to restored grasslands. This study quantifies the relationship between the value of grassland restoration and its ecological quality and public access. We use a choice experiment survey of residents in the Tallgrass Prairie region that includes area restored, ecological quality, public access with and without hunting, and annual cost to households as attributes. This study will directly inform the enrollment and payment practices of USDA conservation programs by identifying how much more value people place on diverse, ecologically functional grasslands compared to grassy monocultures. The study also provides information on how important it could be to provide public access and permits for recreation activities like hunting on privately-owned CRP grasslands. Full data analysis will not be complete for this presentation. However, we will present the choice experiment survey and preliminary results from pilot data.

SESSION 5: Water Quality

Title:               Getting off the Ladder: Disentangling Water Quality Indices to Enhance the                                  Valuation of Divergent Ecosystem Services

Authors:         Frank Lupi, Joseph Herriges, R. Jan Stevenson, Hyunjung Kim

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (task 2-1), 3 (task 3-2)

Presenter:      Frank Lupi

Email:             lupi@msu.edu  

Abstract:        The capacity to estimate total value benefits from water quality improvements has important consequences for US federal regulatory analyses. While there have been advances in total value benefit estimation over the past four decades, knowledge gaps remain that prevent total value benefits (both use and non-use) from being included in many benefit-cost analyses. In 2015, US EPA issued request for proposals for projects that “advance knowledge of how changes in water quality […] can be valued at appropriate spatial scales using advanced non-use valuation methods for the Nation’s inland fresh water small streams, lakes and rivers, estuaries, coastal waters, and the Great Lakes.” The resulting interdisciplinary projects are directly relevant to the W4133’s core objectives, highlight important collaborations across multiple institutions, and demonstrate new ways to estimate water quality benefits. This session presents preliminary results from these groundbreaking studies, focusing on methodological advances, empirical findings and policy relevance.

Title:               Measuring the Benefits of Water Quality Improvements in Urban Streams: An                               Ecological Production Function Approach

Authors:         Roger von Haefen, George Van Houtven, Sasha Naumenko

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (tasks 2-1, 2-2), 3 (tasks 3-1 3-2)

Presenter:      Roger von Haefen

Email:             roger_von_haefen@ncsu.edu

Abstract:        The capacity to estimate total value benefits from water quality improvements has important consequences for US federal regulatory analyses. While there have been advances in total value benefit estimation over the past four decades, knowledge gaps remain that prevent total value benefits (both use and non-use) from being included in many benefit-cost analyses. In 2015, US EPA issued request for proposals for projects that “advance knowledge of how changes in water quality […] can be valued at appropriate spatial scales using advanced non-use valuation methods for the Nation’s inland fresh water small streams, lakes and rivers, estuaries, coastal waters, and the Great Lakes.” The resulting interdisciplinary projects are directly relevant to the W4133’s core objectives, highlight important collaborations across multiple institutions, and demonstrate new ways to estimate water quality benefits. This session presents preliminary results from these groundbreaking studies, focusing on methodological advances, empirical findings and policy relevance.

Title:               Modeling Spatial Dimensions of Water Quality Value in New England River                                  Networks

Authors:         Robert Johnston, Elena Besedin, Stefano Crema, Klaus Moeltner, Tom Ndebele,                           Seth Peery, Robert Stewart, Wilfred M. Wollheim, Zhenyu Yao

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (task 2-2), 3 (task 3-2)

Presenter:      Robert Johnston

Email:             rjohnston@clarku.edu

Abstract:        The capacity to estimate total value benefits from water quality improvements has important consequences for US federal regulatory analyses. While there have been advances in total value benefit estimation over the past four decades, knowledge gaps remain that prevent total value benefits (both use and non-use) from being included in many benefit-cost analyses. In 2015, US EPA issued request for proposals for projects that “advance knowledge of how changes in water quality […] can be valued at appropriate spatial scales using advanced non-use valuation methods for the Nation’s inland fresh water small streams, lakes and rivers, estuaries, coastal waters, and the Great Lakes.” The resulting interdisciplinary projects are directly relevant to the W4133’s core objectives, highlight important collaborations across multiple institutions, and demonstrate new ways to estimate water quality benefits. This session presents preliminary results from these groundbreaking studies, focusing on methodological advances, empirical findings and policy relevance.

Title:               The Effect of the Conservation Stewardship Program on Nitrogen Concentrations                                     in the Illinois River Basin

Authors:         Hsin-Chieh Hsieh, Ben Gramig

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 3 (task 3-1)

Presenter:      Hsin-Chieh Hsieh

Email:             hhsieh11@illinois.edu

Abstract:        The hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico is largely the result of intensive agriculture in the Midwest. Excess nutrients from farming activities are the primary source of water quality degradation. The impact of agricultural conservation practices on ambient water quality has been studied using hydrological simulation models and the empirical literature has explored the slippage and additionality effects of conservation-driven land retirement through the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Empirical evidence of the effect of working-land conservation programs on observed ambient water quality remains scant. This study quantifies the impact of the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP) on riverine nitrogen concentrations. We exploit the National Hydrography Dataset to account for streamflow direction, and aggregate contiguous HUC 12 watersheds to form monitoring basins between upstream and downstream monitoring stations that are the unit of analysis. We control for active conservation contracts, land use land cover, and weather over space and time. The spatial connectivity of monitoring basins allows us to control for upstream pollutant measurements at downstream locations. Using a panel two-way fixed effects (TWFE) approach, we find that a 10% increase in the percentage of land enrolled in CSP reduces ambient nitrogen concentration by 0.5-1 mg/l in basins with and without inflow from upstream. Because the CSP is deployed everywhere starting in the same year there are very few observed counterfactuals with no treatment after CSP began. Machine learning (ML) is well-suited to constructing unobserved counterfactuals because the goal is to generate a good overall prediction not isolate the effect of any particular variable. We use ML to predict the unobserved counterfactual and estimate the average treatment effect as a robustness check on TWFE. We find that a 10% increase in CSP treatment results in a 0.5 mg/l reduction in ambient N concentration equivalent to about 15% of the average level.

 SESSION 6: Land

Title:               Who benefits from local food, nature conservation, and farmland preservation?

Authors:         Frederick Nyanzu, Amy Ando, Bryan Parthum

W4133 obj.:   2 (task 2-1)

Presenter:      Frederick Nyanzu

Email:             fnyanzu2@illinois.edu

Abstract:        Land conservation can provide ecosystem services to society, especially in developing peri-urban areas, and a growing movement is pushing to expand urban local food supplies. However, little is known about what groups of people benefit most from such conservation and local food. Evidence shows inequity in who has access to open space in the U.S., but much more is known about inequity in exposure to environmental bads than in benefits from environmental goods. Historic structures have excluded many groups of marginalized people from protected nature and from farm ownership, so such conservation may well be valued most highly by white residents of metropolitan areas. Food insecurity is also borne unequally by different racial groups, so food available for foraging might be appreciated more by marginalized groups. The research will conduct a choice experiment survey of residents of four metropolitan areas in New England and the Midwest to explore how race and food security are related to an individual’s willingness to pay for protecting nature and farmland and for increasing local food supply. We answer the following questions: (1) Does willingness to pay (WTP) for protecting nature and protecting farmland vary among racial and ethnic groups? (2) Do race and food insecurity affect WTP for food available for local foraging, and is marketed local food valued most highly by white residents? (3) Valuation research finds WTP for conservation often declines with distance from a respondent’s home; does the choice experiment method more accurately capture such distance decay in a community with diverse access to individual car transport if distance in the survey is measured in travel time for the respondent rather than miles? (We will present the survey and experimental design and preliminary results from pilot data; the full set of responses may not yet be ready for analysis.)

Title:               The recreational value of grassland restoration in the time of COVID-19

Authors:         Kaylee Wells

W4133 obj.:   1 (tasks 1-1, 1-3), 2 (tasks 2-1, 2-2)

Presenter:      Kaylee Wells

Email:             kkwells2@illinois.edu  

Abstract:        Grassland, or prairie, ecosystems provide many benefits to society including species habitat, carbon sequestration, soil erosion control, and recreational opportunities. Previous research estimated willingness to pay (WTP) for grassland restoration (Dissanayake and Ando 2014; Li and Ando 2020) but that work was based on choice experiment data. Although Li and Ando (2020) investigate some parts of the relationship between the value of grassland restoration, recreational opportunities at the restored grassland, and ecological quality, much remains unknown. This study explores the relationship between the recreational value of grasslands and their ecological quality using a travel cost survey of Tallgrass Prairie region residents. I contribute to travel cost methodology with a novel approach to defining the consumer choice set; using a machine learning model and geolocated images from Flickr to identify grasslands near survey respondents’ home zip codes. I build upon this initial machine learning model and photo dataset to pioneer a method for classifying the quality of grasslands. Finally, I use spatial variance in the severity of COVID-19 prevalence and formal lockdown regulations to advance understanding of the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on the values people place on nature conservation and outdoor recreation. Full data analysis will not be complete for this presentation. However, I will provide the results of a ground truth test of the machine learning model for grassland identification and discuss plans for building the grassland quality identification and travel cost models.

Title:               Preferences for Utility-scale Solar Energy Siting: The Importance of Prior Land                           Use

Authors:         Corey Lang, Vasundhara Gaur, Greg Howard, Ruth Quainoo

W4133 obj.:   1 (task 1-1), 2 (task 2-1)

Presenter:      Corey Lang

Email:             clang@uri.edu              

Abstract:        Despite growth in the production of solar energy, one factor that has the potential of curtailing this rapid progress is citizen opposition to the siting utility-scale projects. Large-scale solar PV electricity production requires a large amount of land relative to other fuel types. In southern New England, solar developers often target farmland and forest land because these are the cheapest places to build. However, many citizens decry these outcomes due to the loss of ecosystem services, scarce farmland, and rural character. Alternative sites include covered landfills and brownfields, which are better environmentally, but are more expensive and would increase the cost of electricity. The purpose of this research is to estimate preferences for the siting of utility-scale solar installations so that non-market values for various siting attributes can be incorporated into decision making. We develop a choice experiment survey where respondents are presented with hypothetical development plans of solar energy installations. Among other attributes, these development plans highlighted the current land use for the development site in question (forest, farmland, commercial land, or brownfield) as well as the financial impact on households of the plan, measured as changes to their monthly electric bill. We distributed the survey to a random sample of Rhode Island residents and the survey used a mixed-mode approach of both mail and online responses. Our results suggest that preferences for solar development varies greatly based on current land use, with respondents having strong preference in favor of development on commercial and brownfield land and moderate to strong opposition to development on farmland and forest land.

Title:               Valuing Soil Organic Carbon on US Agricultural Land

Authors:         Dale Manning, Mani Rouhi Rad, Stephen Ogle

W4133 obj.:   1 (tasks 1-1, 1-4)

Presenter:      Dale Manning

Email:             dale.manning@colostate.edu

Abstract:        As carbon accumulates in the atmosphere, interest in storing carbon in agricultural soils has surged. Despite increased efforts to incentivize adoption of practices and technologies that build soil organic carbon (SOC), little is known about the private value of SOC stocks. We use a Ricardian approach to examine the on-farm value of SOC. We leverage novel data produced for the EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory that provide annual estimates of the average SOC stock level for all Major Land Resource Areas in the US. SOC stocks in agricultural soils have increased due to the use of modern agricultural practices and inputs. While producer production practices affected SOC stocks, farmers did not historically target SOC stocks explicitly. Further, SOC stocks change at a slow rate and are exogenous at the time of most on-farm decisions. This slow evolution of SOC allows identification of the impact of SOC on land values. We compare the private value to the external value and draw lessons for carbon policy moving forward. We find that one additional metric tonne of SOC per acre (4.8% of 2015 average stock per acre) is worth $91 per acre or 3 percent of average land values in 2015. Exploration of heterogeneous impacts suggest that the benefits of increased SOC cover most US regions. Our results imply that the additional SOC in US agricultural soils since 1950 produces a social stock value of $168.6 billion, with 31% coming from the external benefits valued at a carbon price of $40 per tonne. Our results suggest that increased SOC stocks produced economically significant value during the last half-century and that the external value is a significant share of the total. Future work should examine the drivers of historic SOC increases to reveal policy mechanisms that can align private and socially optimal investment in soils.