Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

See attached minutes.

Short-term Outcomes: Described below in Outputs and Activities.

Outputs

Project activities have resulted in a variety of outputs, as described in the following bullet points.

• A collaborative, coupled human and natural systems research framework for investigating interactions between invasive species, climate change, and the productivity and sustainability of inland fisheries and aquatic resources.
• An assessment of the ecological and socioeconomic effects of climate change and invasive species on inland fisheries and aquatic resources. This assessment integrated data across disciplines to gain robust insights into climate change and invasive species problems, in order to make specific interdisciplinary management recommendations for mitigating detrimental effects on fisheries productivity.
• An assessment of data sets and syntheses of existing work that identify factors influencing individual and organizational responses to invasive species and climate change.
• An integrated model-building and data analysis framework for linking and merging biological and human dimensions databases.
• A prioritized list of data requirements for interdisciplinary questions that cannot be answered yet due to a lack of data.
• A feature publication (Carlson et al. 2019) in the scientific journal Fisheries, the flagship journal of the American Fisheries Society, describing the perceptions of state fisheries agency administrators and Agricultural Experiment Station directors regarding climate change and invasive species
• Meetings and workshops that conveyed information on how to influence individual behavior and organizational responses to invasive species and climate change in ways that benefit the management of inland fisheries and aquatic resources
• Peer-reviewed publications, research reports, and professional presentations communicating the results of this project (see below).
• Graduate student and postdoctoral fellow positions and undergraduate research internships.

In addition, outputs specific to particular subprojects are described below.

• Subproject 1 – TIPPING THE BALANCE: IDENTIFYING THRESHOLD CONDITIONS FOR OHIO’S FISHERIES: Outputs included undergraduate and graduate student training and educational outreach activities, including stream fish demonstrations to local youth groups and classes. We also created georeferenced fish assemblage and land-use data for all study sites.
• Subproject 5 – GENETIC, ECOLOGICAL, AND BEHAVIORAL DETERMINANTS OF LIFE HISTORY VARIATION IN BROOK TROUT (Salvelinus fontinalis): Outputs included peer-reviewed publications focused on building stream temperature models to predict climate change effects on Brook Trout and their thermal habitats, within implications for Brook Trout management. We also partnered with fisheries professionals in the State of Michigan to produce a decision-support tool that they can use to manage trout streams amid climatic changes.
• Subproject 6 – COMMUNITY CAPACITY FOR ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT IN NEW YORKS GREAT LAKES AND MARINE COASTAL AREAS: Outputs included oral presentations at regional and national fisheries/aquatic conferences, interviews with key staff of environmental agencies, and peer-reviewed publications.
• Subproject 7 - PRODUCTION DYNAMICS, GOVERNANCE, AND SUSTAINABILITY OF FISHERIES RESOURCES: Outputs included multiple linear regression models to predict Lake Whitefish recruitment based on environmental variables (i.e., temperature, wind speed, wave height, ice cover) and integration of fisheries-related datasets throughout the Great Lakes regions (e.g., distributions and abundances of stream fish assemblages, stocking locations for stream fishes, creel survey data).

Activities

Project activities were abundant and diverse across the various NC1189 subprojects, as described below.

Subproject 1 – TIPPING THE BALANCE: IDENTIFYING THRESHOLD CONDITIONS FOR OHIO’S FISHERIES: We worked within the Scioto River basin, a major Ohio tributary of the Ohio River, to investigate the distribution and composition of stream and river fish communities and their role in larger riverine food webs. Graduate and undergraduate students worked closely with the Ohio EPA and the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) to complete this research. Educational outreach activities, including stream fish demonstrations to local youth groups and classes, were also delivered. All of the above research and outreach efforts have direct implications for development of management strategies. Information from these projects has been presented to funding agencies, along with recommendations for potential application of these finding via management plans.

Subproject 5 – GENETIC, ECOLOGICAL, AND BEHAVIORAL DETERMINANTS OF LIFE HISTORY VARIATION IN BROOK TROUT (Salvelinus fontinalis): Our research on Brook Trout provides an effective tool for predicting the future suitability of stream thermal habitat for this species. A methodology for predicting these conditions was previously developed by Kelsey Schlee and her thesis committee members, in conjunction with Michigan State University employees, the United States Geological Survey, and students and faculty at the University of North Carolina. By using this methodology, resource managers will be able to assess the future viability of streams for Brook Trout, enabling them to take steps toward mitigating and preventing habitat loss due to changing air temperatures. This air temperature-based tool allows for stream temperature prediction even when stream-related data are limited. The outputs of this project are: a thesis report “The impact of climate change on Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) thermal habitat in the United States”, a public outreach factsheet, and a presentation of these results to the Michigan Natural Resources Commission.

We also developed regional models of climate change and its effect on growth and survival of ecologically, socioeconomically valuable Michigan stream trout, including Brook Trout, Brown Trout (Salmo trutta) and Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). In particular, we measured the accuracy of stream-specific air-water temperature regression models by backcasting Michigan stream temperatures in 2006 and 2012, years with pre-existing air and stream temperature metrics. Then, we forecasted stream temperatures in 2036 and 2056 and projected impacts on the thermal habitat suitability of aquatic habitats for Brook Trout, Brown Trout, and Rainbow Trout growth and survival. We found that stream-specific models accurately projected temperature and thermal habitat suitability status in streams containing these fishes in Michigan. Under multiple scenarios of projected climate change, stream-specific models predicted thermal habitat status with 93.0% percent overall accuracy. As baseflow index (i.e., relative groundwater input) increased, stream thermal sensitivity (i.e., relative susceptibility to temperature change) decreased. Thus, the magnitude of temperature warming and frequency of thermal habitat degradation were lowest in streams with the highest baseflow indices.

In addition, we compared the accuracy of stream-specific and generalized (region-specific) temperature models in groundwater-dominated to surface runoff-dominated streams in Michigan. Despite their lower accuracy in predicting exact stream temperatures, generalized models correctly projected trout thermal habitat suitability in 82% of groundwater-dominated streams, including those with Brook Trout (80% accuracy), Brown Trout (89%), and Rainbow Trout (75%). In contrast, generalized models predicted thermal habitat suitability in runoff-dominated streams with much lower accuracy (54%). These results suggest that, amid climate change and constraints in resource availability (e.g., limited time, money, personnel), generalized models are useful for forecasting thermal conditions in groundwater-dominated streams and developing appropriate trout management strategies. We recommend fisheries professionals reserve resource-intensive stream-specific models for runoff-dominated systems containing high-priority fisheries resources (e.g. trophy individuals) that will be directly impacted by projected stream warming as opposed to those that will not be significantly affected. Overall, our research provides a methodology for accurate stream temperature and thermal habitat suitability prediction and can thus be used to increase the thermal productivity and resilience of coldwater trout streams within and beyond Michigan. We used conference calls to consistently discuss stream temperature modeling methods, results, and conclusions as an NC1189 group, which allowed for cross-pollination of ideas across states and facilitated management-relevant research across the geographic area encompassed by our NC1189 partners.

Moreover, we also collaborated with Michigan fisheries professionals to produce a decision-support tool that they can use to manage trout streams amid climatic changes. To gather necessary information for the decision-support tool, we designed a 30-question survey instrument to evaluate the opinions and perspectives of Michigan fisheries professionals regarding the ecological, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects of trout production and management. The survey was sent to 40 Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) fisheries professionals (23% of fisheries staff) via SurveyMonkey, with reminder emails sent every three weeks during a 2.5-month time span in which the survey was open. The decision-support tool ranked trout streams based on manager-defined stream criteria (e.g., current and projected 2056 temperature, groundwater contribution, trout abundance, watershed land cover), enabling fisheries professionals to make ecologically, socioeconomically robust management decisions that promote thermally resilient and productive streams and trout populations. Stream ranking indicated that certain recreationally significant fisheries (e.g., Muskegon River) will experience warming that may cause them to become less important for trout management. However, lesser-known fisheries (e.g., Davenport Creek) were projected to become more thermally suitable for trout production and thus important for fisheries management. With this information available, managers can anticipate the future state of thermal, hydrological, and biological conditions in streams and thereby make informed, resilience-based management decisions to sustain trout fisheries in a changing climate.

Finally, to address climate change impacts on fisheries, we developed a novel approach for modeling water temperatures in coldwater trout streams. Building on the work of research on groundwater dynamics in trout streams of the eastern U.S., we adapted previous models to accommodate the unique groundwater conditions of Michigan (e.g., high variability in groundwater to surface runoff-dominance throughout the state). We also added a new mathematical procedure for estimating the effects of precipitation (and climate change-induced precipitation modifications) on stream temperature and trout thermal habitat suitability. This research is published in the journal Hydrobiologia (Carlson et al. 2019) and demonstrates how relatively straightforward adjustments to air-stream temperature models can greatly improve model accuracy and ultimately the effectiveness of trout thermal habitat management programs. Models indicated that trout populations in surface runoff-dominated streams with limited groundwater-driven thermal buffering will be more vulnerable to climate change effects (e.g., reduced growth and survival) than populations in groundwater-dominated streams. Even so, our research suggests that groundwater-dominated streams will not inevitably supply coldwater habitats for thermally sensitive fishes like trout, particularly if groundwater temperatures warm or groundwater inputs decline in a changing climate. Overall, our stream temperature modeling approach provides fisheries managers with a reliable tool for understanding how precipitation and groundwater affect the trout populations they manage, allowing for more informed fisheries management programs in a changing climate.

Subproject 6 – COMMUNITY CAPACITY FOR ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT IN NEW YORKS GREAT LAKES AND MARINE COASTAL AREAS: Results from this project were presented at the annual meeting of the American Fisheries Society, the oikos Young Scholars Organization Academy, the Northeast Fish and Wildlife Conference, and the Managing Our Nations Fisheries 3 conference. Interviews with key staff were completed in New York State agencies charged with implementing an ecosystem-based approach to their activities. These included environment-related agencies such as Department of Environmental Conservation and Agriculture and Markets, and general agencies such as Department of State and Department of Transportation.

Additional activities include work by NC1189 member Dr. Dennis DeVries and colleagues at Auburn University. A journal article was published that examines the impact on small scale shrimp farmers of certification systems for shrimp created in industrialized nations. A Working Paper was prepared for the Norwegian Research Council on genetic modification of key species used in aquaculture with a focus on transgenic salmon developed by AquaBounty Technologies. A separate manuscript was developed out of this Working Paper for submission to a peer-reviewed academic journal. A pre-proposal was submitted to the Louisiana Sea Grant program to compare oyster production in Louisiana and Alabama and likely receptivity to off-bottom production systems using hatchery-raised triploids. A book chapter was written examining the resiliency of coastal communities of Louisiana in the face of eustatic sea level rise. Projects were completed that quantified the movement of fish along the Alabama River as hindered by lock/dam structures, and the quantified the impacts of introduced yellow perch populations in two different reservoirs on the resident aquatic communities. Work was continued in freshwater/coastal areas relative to effects of the 2010 BP oil spill on the fish communities. Studies were conducted on freshwater pond communities via an assessment of the effects of pellet feeding on largemouth bass-bluegill pond communities, as well as the effects of threadfin shad presence on these pellet-feeding effects. Further research was conducted to quantify the respiration of non-game fishes that serve as mussel hosts across various temperatures and dissolved oxygen concentrations to determine the influence of impoundment presence on downstream fishes that serve as mussel hosts.

Subproject 7 - PRODUCTION DYNAMICS, GOVERNANCE, AND SUSTAINABILITY OF FISHERIES RESOURCES: To determine if key climate variables improve modeled recruitment estimates for Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), we examined the following variables for inclusion in multiple linear regressions: temperature, wind speed, wave height, and ice cover. To determine the best-fitting model for each management unit, we compared all possible combinations of models including climate variables to the standard stock-recruitment Ricker model (without the addition of any climate variables) using corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc). To project the relationships described by the best-fitting models of climate and recruitment, we used the Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Research Model (CHARM), a simulation model of climate and water resources in the Great Lakes Region. We projected Lake Whitefish recruitment for each management unit using these CHARM outputs as inputs into the models identified through AICc selection for each management unit to generate projections of Lake Whitefish recruitment for 2050-2070. AICc comparisons indicated that the inclusion of selected climate variables significantly improved model fit in eight of the 13 management units evaluated. Isolating the climate-recruitment relationship and projecting recruitment using the CHARM suggested increased Lake Whitefish recruitment in the majority of the 1836 Treaty Waters management units given projected changes in climate. Projected recruitment changes from the 2007 estimates to the 2050-2070 projections range from over a 250% increase to almost an 80% declines. As discussed above, these improved models may influence total allowable catches and designate harvest regulations for the Lake Whitefish fisheries in the Great Lakes. These results can inform adaptive management strategies to ensure a sustainable and prosperous Lake Whitefish fishery, now and in the future climate conditions.

In support of the NC1189 research themes, we compiled a variety of datasets throughout the Great Lakes region. These efforts also support this subproject’s Objective 1 (Understanding of the causes underlying the changes in habitat, such as climate change, invasive species, and land use, and the associated effects on the production and resilience of fisheries and aquatic communities) and Objective 3 (Improve understanding of the factors underlying public awareness, engagement and public support for fisheries resources, aquatic ecosystems, and fisheries sustainability). We linked these data to a standardized spatial framework to map and conduct spatial analyses that may be broadly used to understand production potential and resilience of stream fisheries currently and into the future. Data sets included distributions and abundances of stream fish assemblages, stocking locations for stream fishes, and creel survey data. We also incorporated current stream habitat factors as well as projected changes in stream flow and thermal characteristics anticipated to occur under multiple future climate scenarios. A third type of data included natural and anthropogenic landscape changes known to influence fish distribution throughout the region (and influencing fisheries potential of waterbodies). These included factors such as geology, natural landscape covers like forest and wetlands, and human land uses such as urbanization, agriculture, and mines. By integrating these datasets into a common spatial framework, we conducted analyses to 1) identify current limits to stream fish and fisheries productivity; and 2) identify changes in habitats that occur with climate change that may influence the potential and/or resilience of waterbodies to support fisheries into the future. Integration of datasets into a common spatial framework aided in decision-making on where and how to prioritize management of stream fishes into the future, can be used to better understand angler preferences, and may be useful in garnering future public support to ensure sustainable fisheries into the future.

Milestones

Milestones that encapsulate all of the project’s short-term outcomes, outputs, and activities were:  

• Foster a collaborative, coupled human and natural systems research framework to assess the ecological and socioeconomic effects of climate change and invasive species on the productivity of inland fisheries and aquatic resources.
• Analyze the ecological, environmental and socioeconomic factors which mitigate or exacerbate the introduction, establishment, or effects of invasive species and climate change effects at multiple spatial and ecological scales.
• Determine the socioeconomic and environmental factors that influence the ways in which individuals and organizations respond to invasive species and climate change and the likely consequences of those responses for effective inland fisheries and aquatic resource management.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, M. T. Kinnison, S. M. P. Sullivan, M. J. Weber, R. T. Melstrom, P. A. Venturelli, M. R. Wuellner, R. M. Newman, K. J. Hartman, G. B. Zydlewski, D. R. DeVries, S. M. Gray, D. M. Infante, M. A. Pegg, R. M. Harrell. 2019. Threats to freshwater fisheries in the United States: perspectives and investments of state fisheries administrators and Agricultural Experiment Station directors. Fisheries 44(6):276-287.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, D. M. Infante. 2019. Developing precipitation- and groundwater-corrected stream temperature models to improve brook charr management amid climate change. Hydrobiologia 840:379-398.

 Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, J. Liu. 2019. Using the telecoupling framework to improve Great Lakes fisheries sustainability. Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management.

Taylor, W. W., M. J. Good, A. K. Carlson, T. Scholze, H. A. Triezenberg, R. Lambe. 2019. The changing face of Great Lakes fisheries. Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, D. M. Infante. In review. Modeling effects of climate change on Michigan stream salmonids: precipitation and groundwater as key predictors.

Taylor, W. W., A. K. Carlson, A. Bennett, A.J. Lynch, C.P. Fereri. Book in preparation. Lessons in Leadership: Integrating Courage, Vision, and Innovation for the Future of Sustainable Fisheries. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, J. Liu. 2019. Metacoupled fisheries: integrating ecosystems and human systems across space and time to enhance fisheries management. American Fisheries Society & The Wildlife Society – 2019 Joint Annual Conference.

Taylor, W. W., A. K. Carlson, A. Bennett, J. Liu, M. J. Good. 2019. Evaluating Great Lakes fisheries ecosystems as coupled human and natural systems (CHANS). American Fisheries Society & The Wildlife Society – 2019 Joint Annual Conference.

Taylor, W. W., A. K. Carlson, A. Bennett, D. M. Infante, N. J. Leonard, S. M. Hughes, J. Liu. 2019. Assessing the importance of riverine fisheries as metacoupled human and natural systems. 6th Biennial Symposium of the International Society for River Science. Vienna, Austria.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, Z. Basher, T. Douglas Beard, Jr., D. M. Infante. 2019. Use of precipitation- and groundwater-corrected water temperature models to predict effects of environmental change on stream salmonids. Advances in the Population Ecology of Stream Salmonids V. Granada, Spain.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, J. Liu, A. Bennett. 2019. Stream salmonid fisheries as coupled human and natural systems. Advances in the Population Ecology of Stream Salmonids V. Granada, Spain.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, T. Douglas Beard, Jr., D. M. Infante. 2019. Using decision-support tools to enhance stream trout management amid climate change. Annual meeting of the Michigan Chapters of The Wildlife Society and the American Fisheries Society. Gaylord, Michigan.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, T. Douglas Beard, Jr., D. M. Infante. 2019. Science to action: decision-support to advance stream trout management in a changing climate. 79th Annual Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference. Cleveland, Ohio.  

Carlson, A. K., T. G. Zorn. 2018. Values, opinions, and behavior of inland trout anglers in Michigan. Michigan Department of Natural Resources. Fisheries Report No. 29. Lansing, Michigan.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, D. M. Infante. 2018. Impact of changes in precipitation and groundwater on brook charr thermal habitat in Michigan streams. 9th Annual International Charr Symposium. Duluth, Minnesota.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, J. Liu. 2018. Using the metacoupling framework to enhance fisheries management and governance. 148th Annual AFS Meeting, Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, J. Liu, I. Orlic. 2018. Peruvian anchoveta as a telecoupled fisheries system. Ecology and Society 23(1):35.

Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, J. Liu, I. Orlic. 2018. Telecoupled fisheries: insights and applications for sustainability. Annual Meeting of the United States Regional Association of the International Association for Landscape Ecology. Chicago, Illinois.

 Carlson, A. K., W. W. Taylor, Z. Basher, T. D, Beard, Jr., and D. M. Infante. 2018. Resilient trout management in a changing climate: integrating stream temperature modeling and decision-support. 78th Annual Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference. Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Nohner, J. K., F. Lupi, and W. W. Taylor. 2018. Lakefront property owners' willingness to accept easements for conservation of water quality and habitat. Water Resources Research 54:1-16.

Nohner, J. K., W. W. Taylor, D. B. Hayes, and B. M. Roth. 2018. Influence of aquatic macrophytes on age-0 Largemouth Bass growth and diets. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society. DOI:10.1002/tafs.10067

Reid, Andrea J., Andrew K. Carlson, Irena F. Creed, Erika J. Eliason, Peter A. Gell, Pieter T. J. Johnson, Karen A. Kidd, Tyson J. MacCormack, Julian D. Olden, Steve J. Ormerod, John P. Smol, William W. Taylor, Klement Tockner, Jesse C. Vermaire, David Dudgeon, and Steven J. Cooke. 2018. Emerging threats and persistent conservation challenges for freshwater biodiversity. Biological Reviews 94(3):849-873.