Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

Minutes of W3190 Meeting October 23-24, 2014 Gainesville, FL; submitted by Jordan Suter This is the first annual meeting of W3190 summarizing the final year of W2190 Officers for the past year: Chair; Karina Schoengold, Nebraska; Vice-Chair Aaron Benson, Texas; Secretary; Jordan Suter, Colorado. October 23, 2014, Morning session 8:45 AM – Meeting begins with initial introduction by Ray Huffaker and Karina Schoengold. 8:45 AM – Ray introduces Dorota Hamon, Chair of the Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering. 8:46 AM – Dorota Hamon provides an overview of the department, highlighting faculty work related to water resources. Undergraduate and graduate degree programs were also described. Ari Michelsen asks several questions related to departmental funding. 9:00 AM – Attendee introductions are made. 9:05 AM – Wendy Graham, Director of the University of Florida Water Institute provides a discussion of her institute. The primary mission of the institute is to bring together talent from UF to address complex, multi-disciplinary research, education and outreach. Faculty affiliated with the Institute (currently over 200) seek to understand interactions between humans and aquatic systems for improved water management and policy. Approximately 2/3 of this research is focused on Florida with the remaining 1/3 either non-place specific or outside of Florida. The institute sponsors a symposium, seminar series, expert assistance and peer review services, grad fellows program, faculty fellows program, public awareness and education related to water, and interdisciplinary research programs. 9:30 AM – Wendy Graham continues her presentation by highlighting specific research projects facilitated by the UF Water Institute. She provides a rich set of details on research in the Santa Fe basin of Florida that seeks a better understanding of the geophysical mechanisms through which storm events impact water quality in the watershed. This includes modeling of the age of water and nutrients at various points in the watershed. 10:15 AM – Ray Huffaker introduces Rafael “Rafa” Muñoz-Carpena, a hydrologist faculty member of ABE whose research focuses on integrated environmental systems engineering with applications in Amazonia and other parts of the world. 10:25 AM – Ray Huffaker provides presentation intended to motivate the importance of non-linear dynamic modelling. Some of the motivation for improving the predictive power of dynamic models comes from the failure of macroeconomic dynamic equilibrium models to predict the 2007 financial crisis. Congress has demanded more accountability and governments in other parts of the world (Europe) are implementing audits of predictive models. Ray quotes recent academic articles reiterating that all models are wrong, but some models are useful. The question then becomes how a researcher can be confident that their model does indeed usefully predict future outcomes. The integrative, non-linear dynamic models that Ray advocates start with the observed outcome and then attempt to reconstruct the underlying dynamics of the system (akin to reverse engineering). Ray outlines a specific application of his modeling approach to the modeling of total phosphorous in the Everglades agricultural area. 11:10: Dannele Peck provides handouts for the recently approved W3190 proposal but discussion of the proposal is tabled until Friday morning out of interest of time. October 23, 2014, Afternoon Group travels by van for a catered lunch at the UF Plant Science Research and Education Unit. Lunch is followed by an extensive tour of the research fields and facilities. Group travels to the Prairie Creek Preserve, which is operated by the Florida State Park System. The preserve features unique hydrogeology in that it is a closed basin that funnels water into the aquifer that lies beneath. Alligator sightings were also a primary feature of the tour. October 23, 2014, Morning 8:40 AM The minutes from 2013 meeting are introduced. Dannele Peck made a motion to accept minutes. The motion was seconded by Glenn Schaible and unanimously approved by the group. 8:45 AM Dannele Peck introduced the outline for the approved W3190 proposal. She handed out a hard copy of the presentation that she formulated in Presi. The group collectively thanks Dannele and Kristi Hansen for their roles in writing and finalizing the proposal. Dannele mentions that in future proposals, it will be essential to demonstrate evidence of interconnected research amongst W3190 members. 8:50 AM Karina Schoengold mentioned the possibility of putting together a conference session with W3190 research. Glenn Schaible mentioned that in the past, the group has put together a session at the Western Agricultural Economics Association meetings. Dannele Peck said that it would be ideal if this type of session could occur at a meeting that also includes policy makers, not just academics. 8:55 AM Ari Michelsen asked if it is still possible to make changes to the approved W3190 proposal, as he wanted to add additional projects that W3190 members are working on. Bonnie Colby suggested that one way of encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration would be to host a conference session at an engineering or crop and soil science conference. 9:00 AM Karina Schoengold says that in the interest of showing the impact that our research has on stakeholders, it is a good idea to include popular media articles in the annual reports. She also reminded members that the special issue of the Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research highlighting research from W2190 members and edited by Dannele Peck and Jeff Peterson was recently published (October 2014) in book form. 9:05 AM Karina Schoengold informed members that a grant proposal for a combined meeting with WERA 1020 in Salt Lake City, UT has been submitted through the hard work of Karina and Kristi Hansen. The goal of the proposal is to fund a joint workshop to bring in stakeholders that reflect different topics important to water management. If this is proposal is funded then W3190 meeting plans are taken care of for 2015. If this proposal is not funded, then possible venues for next year’s meeting include Denver, CO; Fort Collins, Co; Imperial, NE; and Lincoln, NE. The ideal date for the meeting would be the weekend of October 22-23. Glenn Schaible proposed having the meeting in year four or five of the proposal in DC, hosted by ERS, to better connect the researchers with government stakeholders. 9:15 AM Karina Schoengold brought up the topic of next year’s W3190 leadership. Vice-chair Aaron Benson has recently left Texas Tech, meaning that two leadership positions need to be filled. The group approved Todd Guilfoos (Rhode Island) as the incoming secretary and Jordan Suter (CSU) as the incoming chair. Mark Eisworth (U. Northern Colorado) is nominated as the incoming vice-chair, but discussion of the position is tabled while Mark and the committee determine whether he is able to serve in a leadership position given that he is not a part of a land grant institution. 9:30 AM Karina Schoengold informed members that Chennet Gopalakrishan has agreed to produce a special issue of the Natural Resources Policy Research if proposal for next year’s conference is funded. Even if the proposal is not funded then the journal would still be interested in hosting a special issue from general research by W3190. Garth Taylor asked the group for ideas about a theme for this issue. Karina Schoengold proposed the idea of groundwater management and Garth suggested that an issue on conjunctive groundwater-surface water management would work well. Ideas were also put forward for distributing policy briefs associated with research articles. Garth Taylor’s water blog (list-serve) is mentioned as one possible venue for these policy briefs. The International Water Resource Economics Consortium was mentioned as a possible venue for such briefs as was the Water for Food Institute at the University of Nebraska. 10:00 AM State reporting Bonnie Colby – has been working on research related to water and ecosystem services in Northwest Mexico through funding from the Walton and Hewlett Foundations. She also receives regular research funding from the Bureau of Reclamation and NOAA. The Colorado River in the US gets most of the attention, while less attention is paid to CO river delta in Mexico. She is working with grad students on farm budgets, payments for ecosystem services based on differential flows of freshwater into delta. Separate research looks at commercial fisheries (shrimp) in the delta. The research has discovered that fish bladder extraction for Asian medicinal markets and narcotics running by fishing boats often dwarf the economic incentives associated with traditional fisheries. Bonnie is also working on research that aims to determine the value of improved freshwater flows. She is working with Brian Hurd on water banking in the Pecos and other river basins to understand how water banks reduce transaction costs. Another set of research looks at rotational fallowing for water management. The research stresses the importance of identifying consumptive water use in order to provide appropriate payments for conservation. Ray Huffaker – briefly discussed his continuing research related to non-linear dynamic modeling of water resource dynamics. He had discussed this research in more depth the previous morning. Ari Michelsen – described his interdisciplinary research projects related to the effects of soil and water salinity on agricultural production, bioenergy, and hydraulic fracturing and water use. The fracking research is in the Barnett basin and was the first area to have fracking. The research found that approximately 1 percent of water used in the area goes for fracking. On average, a fracking well uses approximately eight acre feet of water and most rights are purchased from surface water rights holders. Fracking typically represents a fully consumptive use of water as water is it is very expensive to reuse. Ari along with other researchers in Texas are continuing work on developing the Texas water plan. Ariel Dinar – is currently working on two big initiatives that involve researchers from multiple universities to deal with water issues on the lower Colorado. The team has a proposal submitted to NIFA’s water challenge RFA. One research project evaluates the impact of climate change on agriculture in California’s desert regions. A literature review of climate change economics has been completed as part of this research. The researchers are now surveying extension professionals to understand how they think that farmers should adapt to different levels of water scarcity. The second stage of the project will utilize a contingent valuation approach in each county asking farmers questions about how they might respond to levels of water scarcity. Ariel is also working with ecologists on issues in the Sea of Cortez that will use lab experiments and modeling of the upper, lower, and Mexico units of the Colorado basin. The research seeks to identify ways of generating incentives so that each part of the basin is willing to cooperate. The experimental design is complete and the ecological response functions are being constructed. A final project that Ariel is working on involves water markets in CA. Specifically, he is evaluating how impediments at the county level influence the efficacy of water markets using county level transaction data across 74 years. The theoretical model is constructed and needs to be applied to data. Garth Taylor – urged the group to utilize Bryce Contor’s water demand calculator that provides detailed output for a field, crop, or region. He urged fellow group members to do more work on conjunctive water use and stressed the importance of Bureau of Reclamation canals in sustaining aquifers throughout the region. Kristi Hansen– described a recent publication in the Natural Resources Journal that looks at water trading across 12 states to understand how institutions influence the type of trading activity (leases or sales). She also discussed a publication that evaluates water markets in California and how dry year options may increase efficiency. Her ongoing research involves work on payments for water-based ecosystem service programs in the North Platte River. She is also working on research in the Green River Basin through NSF EPSCOR. In particular she is looking at the economic effects of upstream curtailment. Glenn Schaible – indicated that the 2013 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey will be made available to the public on November 16th and is now integrated with USDA’s horticulture survey (making direct comparisons of 2008 to 2013 data more difficult). He also described a second data project under the water science initiative for water, energy, and food nexus with goals of increasing understanding of water and food systems; water and energy efficiency in food sectors; reducing pollution; and mitigating depletion of freshwater aquifers. Glenn also mentioned current research using the 2007 ag census and 2008 FRIS, specifically on irrigated farms on Native American land. He has also been involved with research at ERS focusing on the California drought of 2014, looking at farm and food impacts. Finally, he discussed the development of groundwater data farm sector analysis. The initiative will be led by Jeffery Savage to integrate USGS aquifer data and state-level well data with USDA conservation and farm survey data. The data will be useful in developing a dynamic hydro-economic model of the Ogallala aquifer for water management policy instruments that accounts for aquifer characteristics. Todd Guilfoos – is working with Jeff Petersen on research in the Kansas Ogallala Aquifer that attempts to simplify the economic policy space and understand the behavior of the LEMAs and cooperation amongst farmers. Todd’s research utilizes agent-based models as well as experiments to understand what drives decision-making in common pool resources. He also has a research project that it is in the early stages looking at how historical water uses impacted regional development in the US. In late June he will be leading the organization of a workshop sponsored by the Northeast Agricultural and Resource Economics Association on water quality in Newport, RI. Mark Eisworth – has recently finished up research projects on wildfire, drought, water, and invasives. He is also working on understanding why some lakes in the Midwest, which were once heavily used for recreation, have seen large declines in recreational use. Jordan Suter – has recently published two articles related to experimental analyses of groundwater use. The first article evaluated behavior when catastrophic contamination of a groundwater resource is possible. Treatments vary the type of information that subjects have related to the contamination to better understand the benefits of information provision on improving sustainability. The second article investigates how dynamic groundwater features related to the speed of lateral flow influence both resource entry and the quantity of resource use. Jordan is currently working on a set of experiments that implement policies that seek to limit groundwater use at both the intensive (pumping) and extensive (entry) margins. He, along with Chris Goemans and Dale Manning at CSU are also set to initiate research related to the economic effects of groundwater conservation policies in the Republican River Basin of Colorado. Dannele Peck – has not done research specifically on water resources in the past year, but encourages research that incorporates whole farm decision-making related to water scarcity that includes flexible rotations. Jeff Peterson – has research underway measuring transaction costs in payment for ecosystem service contracts. Given the high transaction costs that the researchers have found, the attributes of contracts would have to be very effective in influencing compliance for them to be efficient. Jeff is also evaluating the magnitude of common pool externalities related to longer-term trends in technology and climate change. He is also investigating the emerging LEMAs in Kansas and the extent to with they allow for new rules to be imposed on themselves. Research is also underway in collaboration with Nick Brozovic at Nebraska evaluating how declining well yield influence the decisions of groundwater users. Karina Schoengold – Nebraska is using large buyouts of irrigated land that are then used to pipe water to meet surface water agreements. She has research underway on groundwater markets in Nebraska where trading activity has been observed. Karina has new publications related to tech adoption and input price uncertainty that finds that stochastic prices can lead to less adoption but this is not a general result. She has also published research on the impact of drought on conservation practices and government programs like crop insurance and disaster payments. Research underway currently looks at how climate risk influences drought management choices. She is also working with Jeff Petersen and Nick Brozovic to do comparative analysis of different groundwater management districts in the high plains aquifer and also putting together a database of groundwater features and behavior in the high plains. Karina is also working on research related to the influence of subsidies in Mexico on the efficiency of groundwater use. 12:15 – The meeting is closed after brief comments by Ray Huffaker.

W2190 Objective 1. Develop farm-level irrigation strategies to address water quantity and quality problems. In California, researchers are studying the adoption of technologies and management practices by California Avocado growers in response to water scarcity and quality problems. J. Suter in collaboration with researchers at the U. of Delaware implemented lab experiments to understand the behavior of groundwater users subject to water quality contamination. G. Schaible completed a draft report that assesses the impacts and potential adaptations on U.S. agriculture due to shifting regional water balances associated with alternative climate change projections. K. Schoengold and coauthors (Sun, Sesmero) measured the impact of alternative groundwater cost sharing rules on irrigation use and production efficiency. A. Michelsen and coauthors continued research on determining the spatial distribution of field salinity using Electromagnetic Induction (EMI) technique, which efficiently provides accurate field scale soil salinity data. Research also continued on salt tolerance and performance of selected cultivars of bioenergy crops under elevated salinity conditions under greenhouse and field conditions. Objective 2: Examine regional water-related impacts associated with energy, environmental policy, and climate change. B. Colby estimated economic tradeoffs in providing increased freshwater flows to Upper Gulf of California's marine ecosystems through fallowing of irrigated cropland. She also improved methods for predicting and adapting to climate impacts in the water and electricity urban supply sectors, and for providing water for critical habitat needs. In addition she developed econometric models to investigate climate influences on the market price of water, and on water trading activity for urban and for habitat purposes as well as developing a framework for analyzing economics of advanced remote sensing techniques to measure and monitor water "savings" in irrigation forbearance agreements. In California, researchers are examining the impact of and adaptation to Climate Change Induced Water Scarcity in Southern California/Desert Agricultural Production Regions. They have also learned that shallow groundwater tables may supply as much as half of the crop water demand and recycled water use may cause some salinization of the root zone, but rainfall leaching may be adequate when in excess of about 15 in/yr. M. Eiswerth initiated a new research project (examining linkages between drought, wildfire, in situ water levels, and water-based recreation) that was engendered directly by linkages internal to W2190 project. He also made contacts with numerous external stakeholders (government agency representatives and private industry firms) as a direct result of new collaborative linkages internal to W2190. G. Shaible developed initial comparative static analysis of irrigation/water-mgmt practices across Native Am. Indian (NAI) and other Non-NAI irrigated farms using Ag. Census (07) and FRIS (08) data sets. He, along with an ERS team, helped to develop the ERS webpage titled "California Drought 2014: Farm & Food Impacts". It identifies California's resource & economic exposure to the current drought and an ERS capacity-building project to integrate key USGS hydrologic data with USDA irrigation survey data to improve GW mgmt. modeling analyses. G. Taylor found that non-market valuation of water is required when the market fails. The research into the non-market valuation of water ecosystem services using travel cost models. Taylor also studied agricultural water demand with agriculture diverting 90% of the water in the West, quantifying agricultural water demand is critical to almost every water research endeavor. J. Peterson and D. Peck edited a special issue of the JNRPR on "Climate Variability and Water-Dependent Sectors: Impact and Potential Adaptations" and the volume was published as a book. Peterson also developed a stochastic dynamic model to characterize common pool groundwater use under climate change and the gains from optimal management. L. McCann and J. Jones have conducted a survey of homeowners in an urbanizing watershed. Data is being used to examine the factors affecting adoption of drought tolerant plants. They have quantified carbon sequestration and seasonal carbon dioxide flux in the sediments of agricultural reservoirs in Missouri. The research has also quantified historic variation in nutrients and algal biomass in Missouri reservoirs as determined by normal, dry and wet years over the past 3 decades. K. Schoengold supervised C. Shaneyfelt, who completed an MS thesis on "Irrigation Demand in a Changing Climate: Using disaggregate data to predict future groundwater use". K. Schoengold and coauthors published a paper that measured the effect of climate and ag policy programs on the use of conservation practices that reduce production risk from drought. K. Schoengold and D. Sunding published a paper estimating the impacts of stochastic versus fixed water prices on the adoption of precision irrigation technology using data from California. K. Schoengold led a team to implement a producer-level survey to determine how producers have and will respond to increased climate risk (changing water use is one possible response). T. Guilfoos developed a model that incorporates uncertainty and persistence of drought conditions and also adds spatial stock externalities. A. Michelsen and coauthors studied the value of water used in hydraulic fracturing in the Barnett and Eagle Ford Shale Plays. Water used in hydraulic fracturing was found to be much higher compared to water values in both agriculture and urban uses. Relative to agriculture and municipal users, the water used for hydraulic fracturing is minimal, accounting for less than two percent for the Barnett Shale. K. Hansen is incorporating water management data and economic information into a hydro-economic model of the Colorado River Upper Basin States (part of an NSF EPSCoR grant). Objective 3: Investigate Alternative Water Policy and Management Institutions. K. Kovacs has two funded grants, two publications, and four presentations related to sustainable water management in the Mississippi Delta. B. Colby, in collaboration with Reclamation, are developing and evaluating pilot water leasing programs to accomplish specific federal objectives. She is also evaluating irrigation district and grower costs and benefits associated with fallowing land to produce "saved" water for urban and environmental needs. In addition, Colby is examining new water banking initiatives and innovations worldwide and summarizing features most applicable for the southwestern U.S and summarizing experience worldwide with online water trading and highlighting features most applicable for the southwestern U.S. In California, researchers are developing experiments to test sustainability of GW management under uncertainty and with provision of public good alternatives and studying impediments to water trade in California. J. Suter conducted lab experiments at Colorado State University that evaluated the behavioral effects of policies that influence incentives at the intensive and extensive margins of groundwater use. G. Schaible worked with the Office of Science & Tech. Policy (OSTP) to develop a budgetary data initiative to improve water/irrigation data across Irrigation Districts to improve climate change analyses. He completed review/assessment (with USDA's NASS) of draft 2013 FRIS data summary reports (for integrated crop and horticulture sectors) and is organizing research on factors affecting farmers decisions to deficit irrigate and how institutional constraints on water use may impact these decisions. Schaible also completed the ERS Agricultural Normalized Price Estimates for 2014. A congressionally mandated ERS obligation used by Fed. agencies to evaluate benefits of agriculture-related projects. G. Taylor conducted basin wide water allocation modeling. The biggest failing in ecosystem services valuation is providing a context or framework in which to rank social welfare. His research also found that reservoir management has been crippled by decades old rule curves and studied E. Coli irrigation water regulations. Idaho’s water issues have largely been limited to quantity problems. In 2013, irrigation water quality became a problem. N. Brozovic continued analyses of the economic and resource impacts of policies to manage agricultural groundwater use in the High Plains region. J. Bartholic reviewed groundwater case studies of other states (AZ and NE) for good practices in managing water resources, especially policies dealing with sustainable use of groundwater resources. In addition, he conducted the first survey focusing on large water users and their conservation behaviors, and a second survey focusing on understanding local stakeholders and their networks in project area and continued developing a watershed model to be used by local stakeholders for predicting climate change impact scenarios by gathering data, calibrating and verifying three hydrologic models. L. McCann is working with a Ph.D. student, Yubing Fan, to examine existing water institutions in the Midwest and potential alternatives to adapt to increasing drought. R. Hearne established cooperation with Anthony Prato (formerly University of Missouri) to assess institutional evolution in the Missouri River basin. K. Schoengold and D. Zilberman published a paper that evaluates the feasibility of using tiered pricing for water to achieve joint goals of economic efficiency and equity. T. Guilfoos developed computational methods to look at competition of local water management institutions in Kansas and measure the benefits to cooperation vs. competing of these institutions. A. Michelsen evaluated agricultural water demand for 50 years in the Regional State Water Plans with the finding that urbanization of agricultural land was underestimated. K. Hansen, with collaborators, is establishing a conservation exchange for the provision of ecosystem services (to preserve water resources and wildlife/riparian habitat) in southwestern WY. She is also working with a graduate student examining alternative policies to help irrigation districts store water in federal projects on the North Platte River in eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. D. Peck, as an Associate Editor for the Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, organized the review process and provided technical editing for 2 eventually published water-related manuscripts.

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Azzam, A., Nene, G. and Schoengold, K. (2014), "Hog Industry Structure and the Stringency of Environmental Regulation" Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics. doi: 10.1111/cjag.12053 Baerenklau, K., K. Schwabe, and A. Dinar, Residential Water Demand Effect of Increasing Block Rate Water Budgets, Land Economics, (Accepted for Publication, February 5, 2014). Bartholic, J. 2013. Spatial Decision Support Systems - Partnerships: Managing Land Use for Sustainability. Honored Invited Presenter at the 2013 International Conference on Water Sustainability in Arid Regions held at Lanzhou University in Lanzhou, Peoples Republic of China. 12-14 August, 36 pp, in Proceedings. Bartholic, J. 2013. Managing Water Resources to Protect Ecologic Services with Increased Uncertainty. Invited: Presented at 2013 UCOWR/NIWR Annual Conference on Sustaining Water Resources and Ecological Functions in Changing Environments. Lake Tahoe, CA, 11-13 June. 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Bhagyam Chandrasekharan and Bonnie Colby, “Electricity Load Forecasting Improvements as a Climate Change Adaptation”, Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 2013. Blankespoor, B., Alan Basist, A. Dinar, S. Dinar, H. Houba, and N. Thomas, Assessing the Economic and Political Impacts of Climate Change on International River Basins Using Surface Wetness in the Zambezi and Mekong Basins, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Pa-per 14-005/II, January 2014 (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2375157). Botelho, A., A. Dinar, L. Pinto, and A. Rapoport, Time and Uncertainty in Resource Dilemmas: Equilibrium Solutions and Experimental Results, Experimental Economics, (Accepted for Publication, December 23, 2013), January, 2014, DOI 10.1007/s10683-013-9388-2. Brozovi?, N., and Young, R., 2014, Design and implementation of markets for groundwater pumping rights, in Water Markets for the 21st Century: What Have We Learned? (eds. K. Easter and Q. Huang). Bulatewicz, T., D. 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Why Improving Irrigation Efficiency Increases Total Volume of Consumptive Use. Irrigation and Drainage, 62(3) 273–280. July 2013 doi: 10.1002/ird.1717 Demissie, Y., Valocchi, A., Cai, X., Brozovi?, N., Senay, G., and Gebremichael, M., 2014, Parameter estimation for groundwater models under uncertain forcing data, Groundwater, DOI: 10.1111/gwat.12235. Dinar, A., Water and Economy-Wide Policy Interventions, Foundations and Trends in Microeconomics, (Accepted for publication, May 12, 2014), 10(2):85–164, 2014. ERS, California Drought 2014: Farm and Food Impacts.An ERS webpage assessing exposure to drought across California, at: http://ers.usda.gov/topics/in-the-news/california-drought-2014-farm-and-food-impacts.aspx#.VEQi0fnF98E . Fortin, Connie and N. Mulhern. 2013. Michigan’s Winter Maintenance Manual: Promoting Safe Roads and Clean Water. 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