Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

Short-term Outcomes Most outcomes are pending. Some examples of key activities and progress are highlighted below. Sub-project 6 findings have been used by the Ohio Department of Natural resources to conserve and reintroduce rare fishes to their native habitats. Project findings have also been used to inform restoration activities associated with dam removal. An outcome of sub-project 7 is improved recruitment estimates for Lake Whitefish stock assessment models under a climate change scenario. If incorporated by managers, these improved models will be used to establish total allowable catches and designate harvest regulations for 13 of the 15 Lake Whitefish management units in the 1836 Treaty Waters, a culturally and commercially important region for the Lake Whitefish fishery in the Great Lakes. These results can inform adaptive management strategies to ensure a sustainable and prosperous Lake Whitefish fishery, now and in the future climate conditions. Outputs Project research activities have resulted in the production of graduate student and postdoctoral fellow positions, undergraduate research internships, scientific presentations, and publications in peer reviewed journals and books. (1) TIPPING THE BALANCE: IDENTIFYING THRESHOLD CONDITIONS FOR OHIO’S FISHERIES We have continued to work within the Scioto River basin, a major Ohio tributary of the Ohio River to investigate the distribution and composition of stream and river fish communities and their role in larger riverine food webs. Over the course of the year, this work has involved 3 graduate students and multiple undergraduate students. Ongoing linkages with multiple stakeholders, including Ohio EPA and Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), continue to strengthen the project. Educational outreach activities including stream fish demonstrations to local youth groups and classes link the project to the community. In June, we held a day in the field with a group of urban STEM students in the Olentangy River, Columbus, OH. Short-term outcomes include (1) use of project findings in ODNR conservation and reintroduction efforts of rare fishes and (2) linking project findings with restoration activities associated with dam removal. Outputs include publications (listed below) and presentations including at annual meetings of the Society for Freshwater Science and the Ohio Biodiversity Conservation Partnership. Indicators of progress include georeferenced assemblage and land-use data for all study sites as well as completed fish surveys. All of the above research efforts have direct implications for development of management strategies. Information from these projects has been presented to the funding agencies, along with recommendations for potential application of these finding via management plans. (5) GENETIC, ECOLOGICAL, AND BEHAVIORAL DETERMINANTS OF LIFE HISTORY VARIATION IN BROOK TROUT (Salvelinus fontinalis) Our research on Brook Trout provides an effective tool for predicting the future suitability of stream thermal habitat for Brook Trout. A methodology for predicting these conditions was developed by Kelsey Schlee and her thesis committee members, in conjunction with Michigan State University employees, the United States Geological Survey, and students and faculty at the University of North Carolina. By using this methodology, resource managers will be able to assess the future viability of streams for Brook Trout, enabling them to take steps toward mitigating and preventing habitat loss due to changing air temperatures. This air temperature-based tool allows for stream temperature prediction even when stream-related data are limited. The outputs of this project are: a thesis report “The impact of climate change on Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) thermal habitat in the United States”, a manuscript of the same title due for submission in May 2015, a public outreach factsheet, and a presentation of these results to the Michigan Natural Resources Commission. (7) PRODUCTION DYNAMICS, GOVERNANCE, AND SUSTAINABILITY OF FISHERIES RESOURCES Lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) is an ecologically, culturally, and economically important species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Lake Whitefish have been a staple food source for thousands of years and, since 1980, have supported the most economically valuable (annual catch value of approximately US$16.6 million) and productive (annual harvest of approximately 15 million lbs.) commercial fishery in the upper Great Lakes (Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior). Climate change, specifically change in temperature, wind, and ice cover, is expected to impact the ecology, production dynamics, and value of this fishery, because the success of recruitment to the fishery has been linked with these climatic factors. To determine if key climate variables improve the modeled recruitment estimates, we examined the following variables for inclusion in multiple linear regressions: Temperature, wind speed and wave height, ice cover. To determine the best fitting model for each management unit, we compared all possible combinations of models including climate variables to the standard stock-recruitment Ricker model (without the addition of any climate variables) using corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICC). To project the relationships described by the best fitting models of climate and recruitment, we used the Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Research Model (CHARM), a simulation model of climate and water resources in the Great Lakes Region. We projected Lake Whitefish recruitment for each management unit using these CHARM outputs as inputs into the models identified through AICC selection for each management unit to generate projections of Lake Whitefish recruitment for 2050-2070. Corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion comparisons indicated that the inclusion of selected climate variables significantly improved model fit in eight of the 13 management units evaluated. Isolating the climate-recruitment relationship and projecting recruitment using the Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Research Model (CHARM) suggested increased Lake Whitefish recruitment in the majority of the 1836 Treaty Waters management units given projected changes in climate. Projected recruitment changes from the 2007 estimates to the 2050-2070 projections range from over a 250% increase to almost an 80% declines. As discussed above, these improved models may influence total allowable catches and designate harvest regulations for the Lake Whitefish fisheries in the Great Lakes. These results can inform adaptive management strategies to ensure a sustainable and prosperous Lake Whitefish fishery, now and in the future climate conditions. In support of the research theme agreed upon by the team for the next synthetic multistate project discussed in the Activities below, we have begun compiling a variety of datasets from throughout the Great Lakes region. These efforts are also in support of addressing Objective 1 (Understanding of the causes underlying the changes in habitat, such as climate change, invasive species, and land use, and the associated effects on the production and resilience of fisheries and aquatic communities) and Objective 3 (Improve understanding of the factors underlying public awareness, engagement and public support for fisheries resources, aquatic ecosystems, and fisheries sustainability) in this sub-project. We are linking these data to a standardized spatial framework to map and conduct spatial analyses that may be broadly used to understand production potential and resilience of stream fisheries currently and into the future. Data sets include distributions and abundances of stream fish assemblages, stocking locations for stream fishes, and creel survey data. We have also incorporated current stream habitat factors as well as projected changes in stream flow and thermal characteristics anticipated to occur under multiple future climate scenarios. A third type of data include natural and anthropogenic landscape factors known to influence distributions of fishes throughout the region (and influencing fisheries potential of waterbodies). These include factors such as geology, natural landscape covers like forest and wetlands, and human land uses such as urbanization, agriculture, and mines. By integrating these datasets into a common spatial framework, we have the potential for conducting analyses that 1) identify current limits to stream fish and fisheries and 2) identify changes in habitats to occur with climate that may influence the potential and/or resilience of waterbodies to support fisheries into the future. A next step that will build on this work is to link additional large-scale, socioeconomic datasets to the spatial framework that may yield new insights into other ecosystem services provided by waterbodies and/or that may characterize angler preferences related to fishing. Integration of such datasets into a common spatial framework will aid in decision making on where and how to prioritize management of stream fishes into the future, can be used to better understand angler preferences, and may be useful in garnering future public support to ensure sustainable fisheries into the future. Activities Organized and specific functions or duties carried out by individuals or teams using scientific methods to reveal new knowledge and develop new understanding. A major focus for this multistate project has been the formulation of a synthetic research program for the next multistate cycle, with the intent to submit future research proposals to external funding sources. The team has agreed upon a refined research program focusing on a spatial, socioeconomic analysis of fisheries production across multiple states. Our multistate team is ideal for this research, as members have contacts across the nation in state, tribal, and federal fisheries management agencies as well as with academic and government researchers. The team will leverage this unique network to accomplish the research goals in multiple states and regions. Next year, we will conduct a pilot-level spatial assessment of interactions between socioeconomic factors and fisheries. The results of this pilot assessment, including feasibility for scaling-up to regional and national levels, will be discussed at the next research team annual meeting. The next multistate meeting will be a “stand-alone” meeting to focus our efforts on the development and implementation of our next more synthetic proposal related to inland fisheries sustainability. One objective will be to identify a set of standards for angler surveys that facilitate interstate analyses of the socioeconomic factors that drive or are influenced by fisheries production. An analysis of angler surveys across states could lead to better fisheries management, outreach, and participation in recreational fisheries. This spatial, socioeconomic analysis of fisheries production could connect to land cover or climate change to determine the socioeconomic impacts of these ecosystem changes. These results will provide for better fisheries management as the ecosystems in which fish live are affected by anglers, land use, and climate change. Milestones (1) TIPPING THE BALANCE: IDENTIFYING THRESHOLD CONDITIONS FOR OHIO’S FISHERIES: (2013): Collect field data related to fish-dominated food webs and aquatic habitat in representative Ohio drainages. Milestone Status: Partial Completion; Ongoing Milestones include the graduation of the first PhD student linked to this project by December, 2014. (3) FACTORS INFLUENCING RECRUITMENT OF SPORT FISH POPULATIONS IN ILLINOIS: (2013-17): Collect data on factors influencing recruitment in sportfish populations. Milestone Status: Partial Completion; Ongoing (4) INTRINSIC AND EXTRINSIC INFLUENCES ON FISH GROWTH RATES: A CASE EXAMPLE USING YELLOW PERCH: (2013): Collect extant data on yellow perch populations and categorize populations as exhibiting stunted body size or not. Milestone Status: Partial Completion; Ongoing (5) GENETIC, ECOLOGICAL, AND BEHAVIORAL DETERMINANTS OF LIFE HISTORY VARIATION IN BROOK TROUT (Salvelinus fontinalis): (2011-2013): Identification and study of populations of interest in the U.S. and Canada. Milestone Status: Partial Completion (6) COMMUNITY CAPACITY FOR ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT IN NEW YORK’S GREAT LAKES AND MARINE COASTAL AREAS: (2012-2013): Implementation of surveys, data collection. Milestone Status: Complete (2013): Data analysis, draft report and manuscript preparation. Milestone Status: Partial Completion; Ongoing (2013): Sharing of draft reports with stakeholders in case study communities, and with key Council members. Milestone status: Complete (7) PRODUCTION DYNAMICS, GOVERNANCE, AND SUSTAINABILITY OF FISHERIES RESOURCES: (2011-2014): Collect field data evaluating environmental and social resilience in the face of changing demands on fish and fish habitats and analyze related fish population dynamics. Milestone Status: Complete (2012-2015): Develop and evaluate feasibility of a decision support tool for fishery harvest management in a changing climate. Milestone Status: Complete (2015-2016): Preparation of final project reports and manuscripts. Milestone Status: Partial Completion; Ongoing

Bailey, C. Aquaculture, Ecology, and International Public Health. Invited Guest Lecture. Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. January 29, 2014. Bailey, C., and N. V. Tran. 2014. Deltaic Systems, Sea Level Rise, and Disruption of Coastal Aquaculture in the Tropics. 2014. Paper presented at the 2014 meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, New Orleans, July 31 – August 3, 2014. Biedron, I. S. 2014. Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management: Perspectives of fishery management councils and stakeholders in the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions. (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Cornell University, Ithaca, NY. Biedron, I. S. and Knuth, B. A. 2014. Stakeholder perspectives and social factors: Driving factors in the Mid-Atlantic and New England fishery management council transition to Ecosystem-Based Fisheries management. Poster at the Regional Association for Research on the Gulf of Maine (RARGOM) Annual Science meeting, Boston, MA, September 30. Biedron, I. S. and Knuth, B. A. 2014. Stakeholder perspectives and social factors: the Mid-Atlantic and New England Fishery Management Council transition to Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management. Presentation at the American Fisheries Society (AFS) Meeting, Quebec City, QC, August 19. Biedron, I. S. and Knuth, B. A. 2014. Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management: Perspectives of fishery management councils and stakeholders in New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Presentation at New England Fishery Management Council (NEFMC) EBFM Oversight Committee meeting, Danvers, MA, July 31. Biedron, I. S. 2014. Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management: Perspectives of fishery management councils and stakeholders in New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Doctoral Presentation for the Natural Resources Departmental Seminar, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, June 10. Biedron, I. S. and Knuth, B. A. 2014. Stakeholder communication and the transition to Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management for the Mid-Atlantic and New England fishery management councils. Presentation for the Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) Conference, Portland, ME, April 15. Biedron, I. S. and Knuth, B. A. 2013. A survey of stakeholder perspectives about Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management and the Mid-Atlantic and New England Fishery Management Councils. Presentation at the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council MAFMC Meeting, Annapolis, MD. December 12, 2013. Bailey, C., B. Gramling, and S. Laska. 2014. Complexities of Resilience: Adaptation and Change within Human Communities of Coastal Louisiana. Pages 125-140 in The Once and Future Delta. Editors, J. Day, P. Kemp, A. Freeman, and David Muth. New York: Springer. Infante, D. M., W. M. Daniel, K. Herreman, J. Nohner, and W. W. Taylor. Invited. 2014. Enhancing assessments of river condition for improved conservation and management of fluvial fish habitat. 144th Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society, August 17-21, 2014, Quebec City, Quebec. Lima, J. S.G. and C. Bailey. 2014. Shrimp Farming as a Coastal Zone Challenge in Sergipe State, Brazil: Balancing Goals of Conservation and Social Justice. Forthcoming in C.W. Finkl and C. Makowski (eds.), Environmental Management and Governance: Advances in Coastal and Marine Resources. Coastal Research Library 8. London: Springer International Publishing. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-06305-8_9. Lynch, A. J., W. W. Taylor, T. D. Beard, and B. M. Lofgren. Revision submitted to Journal of Great Lakes Research. Projected changes in Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) recruitment with climate change in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior. Lynch, A. J., W. W. Taylor, A. M. McCright. In prep. Perceptions of management and willingness to use decision support: Integrating the potential impacts of climate change on the Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) fishery into harvest management in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior. Lynch, A. J. 2013. One Fish, Two Fish, Where Fish for Whitefish? Fisheries 38(8):356. Lynch, A.J. 2013. Designing a Climate Change Decision-Support Tool for Great Lakes Whitefish. Online decision support tool available at: http://www.miseagrant.umich.edu/explore/fisheries/climate-change-whitefish. Simon, C. 2014. Understanding ecosystem based management: A content analysis of publications in select environmental and natural resource journals 1993-2013. The Department of Natural Resources Graduate Student Symposium, Cornell University, January 2014. Stewart, J. S., and D. M. Infante. Invited. 2014. Enhancing decision making for managing fluvial habitats: Current status and future opportunities with FishVis. Great Lakes Fishery Trust Aquatic Connectivity Workshop, September 4-5, 2014, Lansing, Michigan. Youn, S. J., W. W. Taylor, A. J. Lynch, I. G. Cowx, T. D. Beard Jr., D. Bartley, F. Wu. In press. Inland capture fishery contributions to global food security and threats to their future. Global Food Security.