Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting

2014 W3133 Business Meeting

February 20, 2014

MINUTES

1) Project Updates

Members discussed work that has been done on the project, and agreed there is value in preparing for the rechartering of the project in advance. To that end, the following efforts will be made:

1. a) Circulate a pdf of the original rechartering document, and have each person report on what they have done towards the project goals.
2. b) Make sure that the tradition of having the agenda organized by objective is continued, and that agendas are saved.
3. c) Add information to agendas about additional collaborators on papers who aren’t necessarily coauthors.
4. d) Highlight cross-institution collaboration on agendas.

2) W3133 Officers

1. a) President

Daniel Petrolia (Mississippi State University, petrolia@agecon.msstate.edu), acting Vice President of W3133, will assume Presidential Duties at the close of the Business Meeting, B.

1. b) Vice-President and Secretary

Amy Ando (University of Illinois, amyando@illinois.edu), current Secretary of W3133, was nominated to assume Vice-Presidential Duties at the close of said meeting. Julie Mueller (Northern Arizona University, julie.mueller@nau.edu) was nominated to serve Secretary of W3133. W3133 members unanimously expressed their support of these nominations.

3) Location and Date of 2015 Meeting

Recommendations for locations of next year’s meeting were made and discussed. Possibilities include New Orleans, Dustin FL, Chattanooga TN, and Point Clear AL. A straw poll was taken to inform the president in the process of making a final decision.

4) Miscellaneous Topics

No other topics were raised.

5) Adjourn

The meeting was adjourned.

Papers and Selected Abstracts presented at annual meeting (presenter indicated with *)

1) Impact of Asian Carp on Recreational Fishing Participation

Truong Chau and Richard Ready* (Penn State Univ.)

W3133 Objective 1

Abstract:

Asian Carp were introduced to the United States in the 1970s to control algae growth in aquaculture ponds. They escaped and have gradually spread up the Mississippi River System. They are notable because of their high biomass in some river systems, and for the habit of one species (the Silver Carp) to jump in the air when disturbed by passing boats, occasionally causing injury to boat occupants. We provide an empirical study on the potential impact of Asian Carp on recreational fishing participation, as measured by fishing license sales. Using a Difference-in-Difference approach, we find that the presence of Asian Carp decreases fishing license sales by up to nine percent. This effect is statistically significant when using the standard D-in-D modeling approach, but is not statistically significant when a circular double bootstrap method is used to simulate distributions for parameters.

2) The Effect of Public Land Ownership and Management on County-Level Economic Vitality in the Intermountain West

Paul M. Jakus* (Utah State Univ.), Therese C. Grijalva (Weber State Univ.), and Lassina Coulibaly (Utah State Univ.)

W3133 Objective 1

3) Regionalization of grain production in the Mid-Atlantic region: Geospatial analysis of potential impacts on ecosystem services

Steven Hodges*, Ioannis Kokkinidis, and Pat Donovan (Virginia Tech University)

W3133 Objective 2

4) Controlling the Risk of Cyanobacteria Blooms

Nathaniel H. Merrill*, James Opaluch (Univ. of Rhode Island)

W3133 Objective 1

Abstract: This paper examines the problem of protecting receiving waters from cyanobacteria blooms stimulated by excess nutrients. Cyanobacteria populations can rapidly proliferate when conditions are favorable, creating extensive blooms dominated by a single (or a few) species. Some varieties of cyanobacteria release toxins harmful to ecosystems and humans. Cyanobacteria blooms are challenging to address because they are episodic in nature, highly patchy and difficult to predict, as they depend upon the confluence of a set of factors (e.g., US EPA 2012). Phosphorus is the primary limiting nutrient for cyanobacteria, in part because many are capable of fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere. Phosphorus loads to water bodies are primarily mediated by eroded soil moving in surface runoff (e.g., Morgan, 2001). As a consequence, extreme precipitation events are highly influential in determining transport of phosphorus to water bodies, and hence contributing to conditions favorable to cyanobacteria blooms. This means control efforts focused on mean phosphorus concentrations alone may be ineffective in controlling risk, and indeed measures of mean loads can potentially be misleading indicators of risk, especially give the highly episodic nature of blooms (e.g., Lathrop et al, 1998). Rather, policy within this uncertain context must be effective in controlling phosphorus transport in extreme precipitation events that lie in the tails of the probability distribution. This could be of increasing concern in coming decades, as there are expectations that climate change will result in an increase in high intensity precipitation events (IPCC, 2007, Section 10.3.6.1; Meehl et al, 2005; IPCC 2012; Kunkel et al, 2013).

We examine cost-effective strategies for achieving risk-based safety goals that are based on the probability mass in the upper tail of the distribution of phosphorus loads, which is disproportionately influential in supporting cyanobacteria blooms. We hypothesize that management based on controlling the upper tail of the probability distribution of phosphorus loading implies different efficient management actions, as compared to controlling mean loading. We use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to estimate phosphorus loads and concentrations in the receiving water bodies. SWAT is used to construct a response surface for phosphorus concentrations under different combinations of Best Management Practices. Then we use Matlab’s Global Optimization Toolbox’s Genetic Algorithm (GA) integer optimization routine to find least cost BMPs for achieving probabilistic constraints on phosphorus. Our results confirm the hypothesis that probabilistic constraints lead to different cost-efficient BMPs than do constraints on mean phosphorus concentrations. We apply SWAT with simulated rainfall, which allows us to modify the probability distribution on rainfall (hence phosphorus loads) to simulate scenarios that are representative of expectations for future precipitation patterns in the region under climate change. Climate forecasts for the Northeast region are for somewhat more rainfall overall, but with a larger fraction of rain falling in extreme precipitation events and with longer dry spells in between (e.g., IPCC 2007; IPCC 2012). This could make control of cyanobacteria blooms even more challenging, as it implies a larger probability mass in the tails of the distribution where cyanobacteria blooms are likely to be supported.

References

Davison, P, M. G. Hutchins, S. G. Anthony, M Betson, C. Johnson and E. I . Lord, 2005. “The Relationship between Potentially Erosive Storm Energy and Daily Rainfall Quantity in England and Wales” Science of the Total Environment Vol. 344, pp 15– 25.

Geng S, W.T Frits, P. de Vries, I. Supit, 1986. “A Simple Method for Generating Daily Rainfall Data”, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Vol. 36 pp 363– 76.

Forbes, Catherine, Merran Evans, Nicholas Hastings, and Brian Peacock, 2010. Statistical Distributions, Wiley Press.

Hudnell, H. Kenneth, 2008. Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms: State of the Science and Research Needs, Springer.

IPCC, 2007. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by S.D. Solomon, Q.M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M Tigor and H,L. Miller, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.

IPCC, 2012. “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 582 pp. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by C.B. Field, V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach,

G-K Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tigor, and P. M. Midgley. 582 pp. Cambrindge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York NY, USA.

Karl, Thomas R., Jerry M. Melillo and Thomas C. Peterson, 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Cambridge University Press 188 pp.

Kunkel, Kenneth E., Thomas R. Karl, David R. Easterling, Kelly Redmond, John Young, Xungang Yin, and Paula Hennon, 2013. “Probably Maximum Precipitation and Climate Change”, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40 No. 7, pp 1402 – 1408. DOI: 10.102/grl.50334.

Lathrop, Richard C. Stephen R. Carpenter, Craig A. Stow, Patricia A. Soranno and John C. Panuska, 1998. “Phosphorus Loading Reductions Needed to Control Blue-Green Algal Blooms in Lake Mendota” Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science, Vol. 55 pp 1169- 1178.

Meehl, Gerald A., Julie M. Arblaster, and Claudia Tebaldi, 2005. “Understanding Future Patterns of Increased Precipitation Intensity in Climate Model Simulations” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, L18719.

Morgan RPC., 2001. “A Simple Approach to Soil Loss Prediction: A Revised Morgan–Morgan– Finney Model”. Catena . Vol. 44 pp 305–22.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2012. Cyanobacteria and Cyanotoxins: Information for Drinking Water Systems U.S. EPA Office of Water 4304T EPA-810F11001 July, 2012

5) Characterizing Multi-Scale Spatial Pattern in Nonuse Willingness to Pay: Applicatios to Threatened and Endangered Marine Species

Robert J. Johnston* (Clark Univ.), Daniel Jarvis, Kristy WAllmo, and Daniel K. Lew

W3133 Objective 2

6) Investigating Spatial Effects in Willingness to Pay for Forested Watershed Restoration

Julie M. Mueller* (Northern Arizona University)

W3133 Objective 2

Abstract: While the relationship between ecological restoration and forested watershed health is well established in the literature, funding for restoration remains a significant constraint. Thus, estimates of the benefits of restoration are essential for efficient decision-making. While much research exists estimating the non-market value of wildfire, less research exists estimating the value of forested watershed restoration, and no studies explicitly model Willingness to Pay (WTP) for forested watershed restoration using a spatial probit. We estimate WTP for forested municipal watershed restoration in Flagstaff, AZ, located in an arid region of the southwestern United States. We find policy-relevant differences in estimated WTP when taking into account spatial spillovers. Our results indicate that careful consideration of the spatial dimension of WTP data may be necessary to ensure accurate WTP estimates from dichotomous choice CV models.

7) Single, Repeated, and Simultaneous Best-Worst Elicitation Formats:  Do They Yield the Same Results?

Daniel R. Petrolia, Joonghyun Hwang*, Matthew G. Interis (Mississippi State Univ.)

W-3133 Objective 2

Abstract: We conducted a split-sample choice experiment in Summer 2013, via GfK Custom Research, on a sample of households in five Gulf Coast states. The objective of focus here was to test for differences in responses among single, repeated, and “simultaneous” best-worst elicitation formats. The single choice format presented respondents with a single three-alternative choice set and elicited their most preferred alternative. The repeated choice format presented respondents with four three-alternative choice sets and elicited their most preferred alternative in each choice set. The simultaneous best-worst elicitation format presented respondents with a single three-alternative choice set and elicited, simultaneously, their most and least preferred alternatives. The literature tends to favor the repeated choice format because it yields more information (i.e., responses) per respondent, thus representing a potentially large cost savings.

However, the literature has shown the repeated choice format to suffer from a variety of problems, such as status-quo bias and strategic bias, which can result in biases in welfare estimates. The best-worst elicitation method has recently been introduced into the literature as a format that collects additional information but in a way that is easy for respondents to follow. The main difference between the best-worst elicitation format found in the literature and the one used here is that the one in the literature generally maintains the repeated choice format, presenting respondents with a sequence of choice sets that decrease in the number of alternatives until a full ranking of all alternatives is achieved. In this survey, we use a single question that elicits the best and worst choice simultaneously. We do so to mimic as closely as possible the single choice format and so avoid the potential biases associated with repeated choice. Because our choice sets contain just three alternatives, a full ranking can be obtained in a single question. Responses to each best-worst elicitation question are then re-formatted into two independent choice sets using rank-order explosion. Thus, the single choice format should yield the least information, but avoid the potential biases associated with repeated choice; the repeated choice format should yield the most information but suffer from potential biases; and the best-worst elicitation format should yield an amount of information in between the others, but potentially avoid the biases of repeated choice. The best-worst format may, however, suffer from its own unique biases, which we attempt to uncover here. We test for differences in attribute parameter estimates, WTP, status-quo/action bias, attribute attendance, adherence to the IIA property, and scale.

8) Analyzing Choice Experiment Data in Preference Space vs Willingness-to-Pay Space: Examples from three studies 

T. M. Dissanayake* (Colby College and Portland State Univ.)

W-3133 objective: 2

Abstract: Recent work on estimating the willingness to pay (WTP) from choice experiments surveys have highlighted that estimating the model in preference space (standard linear random utility model) and calculating the WTP by dividing the coefficient estimate of an attribute by the coefficient estimate from the cost term can result in WTP distributions that are structurally incorrect. Specifically Train and Weeks (2005), Scarpa, Thiene and Train (2008), Daly, Hess and Train (2012) and Hole and Kolstad (2012) show that ratios of coefficients can have infinite variances and therefore an estimator compromising of a ratio of coefficients may not have finite moments. An alternative approach is to reformulate the estimation equations from preference space to WTP space which allow the direct estimation WTP. In this paper I compare the estimation of WTP in both preference space and WTP space using data from three different choice experiment studies. The studies come from a variety of applications and geographical locations; specifically preferences for riparian ecosystem services in Oregon, preferences for grasslands in Illinois, and preferences for REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation) contracts in Ethiopia and in Nepal. Preliminary results show that the differences in WTP between estimates arrived at using preference space compared to estimates arrived at using WTP space are a function of the specific distributions used for the random coefficients and also the sample size. Preliminary results from these studies do not show an advantage for estimating the WTP in WTP space results.

References:

Daly, A., Hess, S., and Train, K. (2012). Assuring finite moments for willingness to pay in random coefficient models. Transportation, 39(1), 19-31.

Hole, A. R., & Kolstad, J. R. (2012). Mixed logit estimation of willingness to pay distributions: a comparison of models in preference and WTP space using data from a health-related choice experiment. Empirical Economics, 42(2), 445-469.

Scarpa, R., Thiene, M. and Train, K. (2008). Utility in willingness to pay space: A tool to address confounding random scale effects in destination choice to the Alps. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90, 94-1010.

Train, K., and Weeks, M. (2005). Discrete choice models in preference space and willingness-to-pay space (pp. 1-16). Springer Netherlands.

9) Ecosystem Services Valuation: Does it Matter Which Ecosystem Provides the Services?

Matt Interis* and Dan Petrolia (Mississippi State Univ.)

W3133 Objective: 3

Abstract: We estimate the value of four ecosystem services – water quality improvement, fisheries support, flood protection, and bird habitat – provided by three distinct habitat types found along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico: oyster reefs, mangroves, and salt marsh. Values are estimated based on survey respondents’ stated hypothetical willingness to pay a one-time state tax to fund a program to construct additional acres of these habitats in either of two different geographical regions: Barataria-Terrebonne Estuary, Louisiana, and Mobile Bay, Alabama. Each program proposes to construct 1500 acres of a particular habitat. By comparing value estimates across these two locations we can examine the extent to which service values differ across proposed programs of identical size and types of services delivered but which differ only in terms of geographical location and population sampled. While other studies have compared ecosystem service value estimates across locations, ours is the first that we know of to be conducted in the Gulf of Mexico Region. In addition, we examine whether value estimates for ecosystem services differ depending upon the habitat providing the services. Each habitat we examine provides, to varying degrees, each ecosystem service we examine. As far as we know, ours is the first study to examine whether ecosystem service value estimates differ by providing habitat. We find that ecosystem service values do differ across both location and habitat. We find that ecosystem service value estimates for the same habitat types (both for oyster reef and salt marsh) differ substantially between these two locations, up to three times greater in one than the other, depending on the specific service. Additionally, we find that ecosystem service value estimates can differ dramatically when presented to respondents as being provided by one type of habitat compared to another, even when the geographic location of the proposed project is held constant. These findings highlight the importance of context – population, location, and habitat type – in ecosystem service valuation, and makes clear the need for care to be taken when transferring value estimates from one location – even over the same habitat type – to another, or from one habitat type – even in the same location – to another, such as is done with benefits transfer methods.

10) Distinguishing Preferences from Expectations when Valuing Salient Ecosystem Services

David J. Lewis* (Oregon State Univ.), Bill Provencher (Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, and Ben Beardmore (Univ. of Wisconsin –Madison)

W-3133 objectives: 1, 2 and 3

Abstract: Natural ecosystems provide many services that are valued by people, though these ecosystem services vary in their saliency to those who benefit from their provision. For example, biological diversity promotes the resiliency of natural ecosystems (Tillman 1996), though the stability of natural systems is not a salient concept to non-scientists. In contrast, aquatic systems provide fish to populations whose magnitude and age structure are extremely salient to recreational anglers. When valuing changes to salient ecosystem services, stated preference analysts face the challenge that respondents may have both expectations and preference over the services they are asked to value. While many surveys simply tell respondents the level of the ecosystem service both with and without some environmental program, this approach will not be appropriate for respondents whose baseline expectations of the service differ from what the researcher states. A respondent’s low willingness-to-pay to prevent an environmental shock could arise from preferences or from an expectation that the shock is unlikely to occur. Evidence of well-formed and heterogeneous baseline expectations have been found in stated preference analyses of aquatic species invasions (Provencher et al. 2012), land development (Papenfus 2011), and climate change mitigation (Lee and Cameron 2008; Cai et al. 2010). Failure to distinguish baseline expectations of ecosystem services from preferences greatly limits the applicability of the analysis because the researcher can only value the program developed in the stated preference scenario, and not the underlying service that is the focus of the program. This paper makes multiple contributions to the problem of distinguishing expectations from preferences when valuing salient ecosystem services. We incorporate expectations by using surveys that explicitly query respondent expectations of baseline ecosystem service changes. First, we develop several extensions that generalize Provencher et al.’s (2012) structural method of valuing binary shocks to ecosystem services when respondents have heterogeneous baseline expectations. We apply the extensions to new survey data and estimate the loss to a set of Wisconsin recreational boaters from Eurasian milfoil invasions of freshwater lakes– a binary ecosystem shock. Since boaters generally do not expect their favorite lakes to be invaded with certainty in the absence of any Milfoil prevention program, their willingness-to-pay for the Milfoil prevention program itself is almost forty percent lower than our estimated $97 welfare loss from a certain species invasion. Second, we consider the considerable challenge of disentangling expectations from preferences in analyses of continuous ecosystem shocks. Using an application that estimates Wisconsin lakeshore property owners’ willingness-to-pay for a fish restoration program – a continuous ecosystem shock – we find that welfare estimates strongly depend on respondents’ stated expectations of future fish populations and range from $99 to $229 per year. Our results show that separately estimating willingness-to-pay across groups of respondent expectations generates substantially different estimates than the more parametric approach of simply including reduced-form expectation measures as right-hand side variables.

References

Cai, B., Cameron, T.A., and G.R. Gerdes. 2010. “Distributional preferences and the incidence of costs and benefits in climate change policy.” Environmental and Resource Economics, 46(4):429-458.

Lee, J.J., and T.A. Cameron. 2008. “Popular support for climate change mitigation: Evidence from a general population mail survey.” Environmental and Resource Economics, 41(2): 223- 248.

Papenfus, M.M. 2009. “Environmental zoning, development moratoriums, and natural amenities: Using nonmarket valuation to improve management of Wisconsin’s north temperate lakes.” Unpublished PhD Dissertation, Environmental Studies-Land Resources, University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Provencher, B., Lewis, D.J., and K. Anderson. 2012. “Disentangling preferences and expectations in stated preference analysis with respondent uncertainty: The case of invasive species prevention.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 64: 169-182.

Tilman, D. 1996. “Biodiversity: Population versus ecosystem stability.” Ecology, 77(2): 350- 363.

11) Principles to Guide Assessments of Ecosystem Service Values: Technical Challenges

Ervin (Portland State Univ.), S. Vickerman (Defenders of Wildlife), F. Casey (USGS)*, S. Dissanayake (Colby College), John Loomis (Colorado State Univ)

W-3133 objectives: 2 and 3

Abstract: Myriad assessments of the value(s) of ecosystem services (ES) are being conducted by public and private organizations. However, the analyses vary in their coverage of effects and the rigor of assessing values. Inconsistent and uneven quality can jeopardize the long-term credibility of ES valuations and diminish their influence in policy circles. The development of common principles based in science to guide ES values assessments could minimize this risk. This is especially important to the federal agencies tasked with implementing the recommendations of the PCAST report. This paper presents findings from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to develop such a set of principles. Thirty scientists and practitioners participated in a facilitated process that produced remarkable alignment on a set of draft principles, which were then subjected to a broader national review. The principles are included at the end of this abstract. The principles have been vetted at multiple briefings in Washington DC and received favorable feedback at high policy levels. The national review included comments from the Office of Science and Technology Policy’s Sub-committee on Ecological Systems, the federal agency assigned to implementing the recommendations of the PCAST report. However, several technical challenges await economists and other scientists in implementing the principles. The primary purpose of this session would be to solicit input and advice from W3133 economists working in nonmarket valuation to help refine the principles, generate ideas, and set up a process on how to best address the following technical challenges: (1) Construct productive collaborations of economists with ecologists and other scientists to assure all relevant values are incorporated. (2) Develop analytical frameworks that allow the consideration of non-monetary (quantitative and qualitative) impacts, such as biodiversity metrics and equity effects. (3) Create methods for analyzing scientific and policy uncertainty confounding ES valuation, including relevant discount rates for long time horizons. (4) Determine the appropriate geographic and time scales at which to cast the ES values assessment. (5) Develop methods for stakeholder involvement that will generate all salient monetary, quantitative nonmonetary, and social ideological values in play. (6) Define a minimum set of “best practices” for public and private agencies employing benefit-transfer methods for valuing ecosystem services and biodiversity.

1. The principles include:
2. Articulate a clear purpose for the assessment and a rationale for the methods used.
3. Reflect a fair and honest effort to represent ecosystems and all of the benefits they provide without intent to produce a predetermined outcome.
4. Identify and engage all interested and affected stakeholders in a transparent, inclusive manner.
5. Use interdisciplinary approaches to address the landscape attributes, ecological functions, and stakeholder perspectives at scales that allow decision makers to understand the full range of benefits, costs, and potential solutions.
6. Assess the full suite of ecological, social, and economic costs and benefits in quantitative and qualitative terms using credible methods, while avoiding the double counting of monetized values.
7. Consider resilience and the ability to maintain biodiversity and sustain ecosystems for current and future generations.
8. Be based on the best scientific information available while disclosing uncertainties that bear on the decision, and provide analysis on the potential effects of those uncertainties.
9. Apply robust methodologies and approaches that strive to be consistent, repeatable, and transparent, while encouraging the improvement of ecosystem services assessment methodologies and tools.
10. Provide a rationale for the exclusion of any social, ecological, or economic attributes
11. relevant to the management decision that were not included in the assessment, and make the full assessment available for technical review.
12. Use language that is relevant to the intended audience and sparing in its use of acronyms and abbreviations to make valuation results accessible for non-technical stakeholders.

12) Estimating Farmers' Willingness to Change Tillage Practices to Supply Carbon Emissions Offsets

B.M. Gramig,* N.J.O. Widmar (Purdue Univ.)

W3133 Objective: Objective 2

Abstract: Wide‐reaching international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol have thus far failed to achieve the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions agreed to by the international community. No successor to Kyoto with binding emissions limits has emerged and a more decentralized approach with individual states, countries or regions enacting GHG emission limits or imposing a carbon tax to incentivize less use of fossil fuels and development of renewable energy technologies. One common element present in voluntary and regulatory carbon markets has been the inclusion of emission offsets that can be sold by entities outside emission caps or not subject to a carbon tax. One particularly low cost means of sequestering atmospheric carbon involves reducing or eliminating tillage of agricultural soils. This research conducts a choice experiment with corn and soybean farmers in Indiana, USA to measure farmers' willingness to change tillage practices to supply carbon offsets by estimating their willingness to pay or willingness to accept payment related to different attributes of active and proposed carbon markets around the world. Understanding farmers' preferences is vital to ensuring that farmers will participate in such schemes so that carbon abatement efforts around the globe can be achieved in the most cost‐effective ways possible.

13) Resident and Tourist Preferences for Stormwater Management Strategies in Oahu

Jerrod Penn*, Wuyang Hu, Linda Cox, Lara Kozloff  (Univ. of Kentucky)

W3133 Objective: Objective 3

Abstract: Hawaii’s economy relies on its global reputation of its coastal marine environments. This paper studies residents’ and tourists’ preferences for stormwater quality management strategies related to recreational beaches in Oahu, Hawaii. Using a Choice Experiment approach, we consider Willingness to pay for Non-Structural and Structural Best Management Practices, Warning and Advisory systems, Testing methods, and educational efforts. Our results show that Rapid testing and educational efforts are most favored by both residents and tourists. There are no differences in Willingness to Pay for the strategies among residents and tourists, such that meeting both groups’ preferences is possible. Further, based on experts’ information on the strategies’ proposed costs, all strategies should be pursued by the Hawaii policymakers.

14) Benefits of Stormwater Management: WTP and Willingness to Help

Catalina Londoño Cadavid (2Escuela de Ingenierıa de Antioquia, Colombia), Amy Ando* (Univ. of Illinois) and Noelwah Netusil (Reed College)

W3133 Objectives: 1, 2

Abstract: Choice experiment (CE) survey methodology [Louviere and Hensher, 1982] has been used widely for decades in marketing and economics to estimate consumers’ WTP for goods or services. This methodology commonly includes the cost of a good as a variable attribute; that permits monetary estimates of value, yielding WTP estimates that are necessarily budget constrained. This research suggests an addition to CE methodology: the inclusion of hours of volunteer time as an attribute alongside monetary cost. This paper tests whether including willingness to help (WTH) yields broader estimates of value where people have differential abilities to pay or volunteer depending on whether their biggest constraint is on money or on time. To explore the characteristics of a valuation method that includes an additional or alternative measure of willingness to pay, we use valuation of stormwater control measures as a case study. Conventional stormwater management has focused primarily on reducing floods with centralized physical infrastructure, but a new generation of decentralized stormwater solutions produces additional benefits [National Research Council, 2009]. Some of these solutions might require widespread landowner willingness to install stormwater controls (e.g. cisterns, rain gardens, green roofs), which then require ongoing decentralized maintenance.

     This research carries out an online CE survey of households in Chicago, Illinois and Portland, Oregon to estimate the values of multiple attributes of stormwater management outcomes (previous research has estimated the values people have for flood reduction and some environmental benefits of stormwater management [Londoño and Ando, 2013].) Each survey asks respondents to choose between stormwater programs with varied levels of flood control, water pollution reduction, and aquatic habitat integrity improvement. One treatment includes monetary cost as an attribute; a second treatment includes variable numbers of hours the respondent would spend helping to maintain stormwater control infrastructure; and a third treatment includes both time and money costs. We find that people place a positive value on improving elements of environmental quality, both water quality and aquatic health. However, flooding reduction is not significant in the treatment in which people are presented with both time and money payments, even after controlling for individual flooding experience. Only 33% of the respondents recall at least one flooding event in the past year and, out of those who did, fewer than 6% experienced more than four flood events.

     We calculated people’s average marginal willingness to pay (monthly $) and willingness to help (monthly hours) to obtain various attributes (flood reduction, environmental improvement). Results suggest that people do not value their time at their wage rate. If time were truly valued according to hourly wages, people reveal themselves willing to pay much more through in-kind contributions of time than through direct payments of money. In addition, current results reveal the surprising result that high income people are willing to pay less money for stormwater improvements; this finding could have multiple explanations. Overall, the findings imply that programs that allow residents to pay both through fees and through helping may be better able to capture a full range of value from residents of diverse financial means.

15) Accuracy of forest damage assessment and geo-coding of residences: Impact on hedonic estimation

Christine Blinn (Virginia Tech. Univ.), Jed Cohen (Virginia Tech. Univ.), Tom Holmes (USDA), and Klaus Moeltner* (Virginia Tech. Univ.)

W3133 Objectives: 1, 2

Abstract: The availability of rich property sales data via commercial vendors and the increasing repertoire of detailed GIS layers for environmental amenities has fostered the use of hedonic approaches for the valuation of environmental quality changes. In applications with large variations in the spatial relationship between homes and environmental impacts the accuracy of both geo-coding property locations and the assessment of property-relevant damages becomes important to avoid measurement errors and biased results on marginal prices and welfare measures. To date, nobody has examined the dual role of geo-coding and accuracy of impact assessment in a hedonic context. We examine the implications of using different damage assessment methods (y-over, satellite, aerial photography) and geo-coding packages (software vendor versus visual coding by expert) on estimation results using as an example the widespread tree damage due to the Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) outbreak in recent years in the Colorado Front Range.

16) Economic Value of Sustainable Brownfield Redevelopment

Olesya Savchenko* and John B. Braden (Univ. of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign)

W‐3133 objective 2

Abstract: Though the economic benefits of conventional modes of brownfield redevelopment have been studied extensively, little is known about sustainable forms. This study examines the values of nearby properties to determine whether sustainable and conventional modes of redevelopment differ in their neighborhood effects. The main hypothesis tested in this paper is whether sustainable redevelopment of brownfield sites increases nearby property values more than does traditional redevelopment. Sustainable redevelopment incorporates low‐impact features such as efficient building design, recycled materials, water conservation and use of renewable energy that differentiate it from more conventional initiatives, which have no such elements. A sample of fifty‐five redeveloped brownfield sites located in New York, NY is classified according to redevelopment type. House‐level panel data for sale transactions and characteristics for 1989‐2011 allows for analysis at a fine geographic scale and high level of precision, controlling for time‐varying and timeinvariant unobserved heterogeneity. The results indicate that sustainable and conventional forms of brownfield redevelopment both have positive impacts on nearby property values resulting, respectively, in a 2.6% and 1.2% appreciation in property values located within 1 mile of a brownfield site.

17) Urban Watershed Restoration Projects and Property Values: A Repeat-Sale/Hedonic Approach

Maya Jarrad and Noelwah R. Netusil* (Reed College)

W3133 Objective 1, 2, 3

Abstract: The Environmental Protection Agency’s (2013) survey of 1,924 rivers and streams in the United States found that more than half of the sampled sites exhibited poor biological conditions.  Stressors identified in the EPA report include runoff from urban areas, agricultural practices, and wastewater. Stressors associated with urbanization include nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, bacteria from leaking septic systems, polluted stormwater runoff, and sedimentation due to riparian corridor disturbance. The importance of riparian vegetative cover in achieving water quality goals and reducing flooding (Chang 2007; Levell and Chang 2008; Pratt and Chang 2012; Yeakley 2014) has lead federal, state and local government agencies to prioritize riparian restoration projects. This is especially true in our study area--the Johnson Creek Watershed, Oregon--which has seen over 150 sites restored since the late 1990s. Stated goals of these projects include improving water quality, reducing flooding, enhancing fish and wildlife habitat and providing recreation opportunities. This project combines a database of single-family residential property sales from 1988-2011 in the Johnson Creek Watershed, Oregon with the date and location of the 150 restoration sites included in the City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Service’s database. We use a hybrid repeat sales/hedonic approach to explore the effect of restoration projects on nearby property sale prices and investigate if that effect changes over time and with a property’s distance from a restoration site. A priori expectations include an initial negative effect on sale price due to the noise, disruption, and upturned appearance associated with these sites followed by a positive effect once the project is finished and vegetation matures. We anticipate the initial negative effect to be largest for properties located closest to these sites.

References:

Chang, Heejun. “Comparative Streamflow Characteristics in Urbanizing Basins in the Portland Metropolitan Area Oregon, USA.” Hydrological Processes 21 (2007): 211–222.

Levell, AP, and H. Chang. “Monitoring the Channel Process of a Stream Restoration Project in an Urbanizing Watershed: A Case Study of Kelley Creek, Oregon, USA.” River Research and Applications 24 (2008): 169–182.

Pratt, Bethany, and Heejun Chang. “Effects of Land Cover, Topography, and Built Structure on Seasonal Water Quality at Multiple Spatial Scales.” Journal of Hazardous Materials 209–210 (2012): 48–58.

US Environmental Protection Agency (2013) National rivers and streams assessment 2008–2009: a collaborative survey. EPA/841/D-13-001. US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

Yeakley, J. Alan. “Water Quality in Pacific Northwest Urban and Urbanizing Aquatic Ecosystems.” In Wild Salmonids in the Urbanizing Pacific Northwest, edited by J. Alan Yeakley, Kathleen G. Maas-Hebner, and Robert M. Hughes, 101–121. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2014. http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-1-4614-8818-7_8.

18) The value of public versus private provision for reducing expected loss from wildfire risk: How much can they differ?

Laine Christman, Michael Taylor, Kim Rollins* (Univ. of Nevada Reno)

W3133 Objective 1, 2

Abstract: The escalating costs of wildfire suppression experienced in arid regions of the western U.S. can be partially mitigated through creation and maintenance of defensible space – that is, by clearing landscapes within 30-100 feet of homes of flammable vegetation and materials, and use of fire-retarding landscaping, including irrigated lawns and deciduous trees and shrubs.  The costs of wildfire suppression tend to be remarkably higher in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) than on public lands in more remote areas.  Defensible space reduces the likelihood that wildfires on public lands will spread to private property.   Defensible space on private land benefits individual property owners while generating spatial spill-over effects that reduce wildfire suppression costs.  Public policies and programs offer financial incentives for at-risk communities to apply for cost-sharing grants to create defensible space strategically on private property and public lands to protect the community as a whole, as well as educational programs for homeowners to encourage private investment on their own properties.

We measure the value of wildfire risk reduction to individual homeowners.  We use an experimental design over a stated preference framework in which the expected value of a risk reduction is given explicitly as a decrease in the probability of loss and loss amount.   We create two alternative means to accomplish the same level of risk reduction per individual:  one through individual investment in defensible space on their own property, and the other through a community-wide program to create and maintain defensible space on strategically targeted private properties and public lands.  Each individual is provided with a single initial probability of loss, amount of loss, and lower probability of loss that is attainable through creation of defensible space at a given dollar amount, with loss amounts, initial and lower probabilities, and dollar valued costs of programs varied systematically.  Our results show that individual mean WTP for the public and private provision of defensible space generally increases with increasing unit probability change and with loss amounts; however, the difference between private and public provision differs by more than ten-fold.  Other than probability change and loss amounts, the most important indicators of WTP for the private provision were the individual’s desire to achieve the peace of mind that in the case of fire, they have done what they can do.  For the public provision, skepticism about public provision, desire to have actions performed on one’s own property/loss of control, concern about conflict in the community, and confidence that insurance would handle losses negatively affected WTP; while desire to reduce risk to the community increased WTP. Our results suggest that efforts to strategically target types and locations of defensible space activities in a given area in the WUI might consider first focusing on individual private incentives to invest, and if necessary, design programs that incrementally increase these incentives beyond what is privately optimal for homeowners in targeted areas, to achieve overall desired levels of community defensible space that provide spatial spill-over effects.  The dramatically lower values for community-level granting programs indicate that the costs of being able to achieve target-levels of defensible space through these programs may be much higher, than for programs that target private homeowners.

19) Exploring the Shelf Life of Travel Cost Methods of Valuing Recreation for Benefits Transfer

Elizabeth Spink (Harvard/Cornell) and Nancy Connelly, Shanjun Li, and Greg Poe* (Cornell)

W3133 Objective 1

Abstract: Non-market valuation methods have matured, and candidate studies for benefits transfers of recreational activities now have various vintages. For example, a recent literature review found that travel cost and contingent valuation estimates of the net value of recreational fishing in the Great Lakes extend as far back as 1967. At issue is the “shelf life” of benefits estimates for intertemporal benefits transfers: are benefit estimates stable across lengthy time periods? The issue of shelf life is of particular concern for recreational activities such as fishing in which the level of activity, and hence the underlying demand, has changed substantially over generations and over time. That fundamental change has occurred over time in recreational fishing is evidenced by the 2006 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Related Recreation, which estimated that Great Lakes recreational fishing declined by 30 percent from 1996 to 2006 (USFWS, 2008, p. 18). Several short-term (two months to two years) contingent valuation “test-retest” type studies have been reported in the literature and we have been able to locate a couple of contingent valuation comparisons estimates for specific recreational activities over longer periods of time (six to 20 years). To our knowledge, however, a parallel body of research has not arisen in the travel cost literature. The objective of this study is to explore the shelf life of travel cost model estimates. This research uses expenditure and effort data collected in the 1988, 1996 and 2007 New York State Angler Surveys (NYSAS) to estimate travel cost demand and associated net benefits of recreational fishing in NYS. These three data collection efforts used the same methods, allowing a consistent model of travel cost demand to be estimated across all three surveys. This will permit tests of the stability of recreational demand and value estimates across an extended period of time ranging from eight (1988 to 1996), to 11 (1996 to 2007), to 19 (1998 to 2007) years. This presentation briefly reports the results of the first survey that has been analyzed thus far, the 2007 NYSAS. A repeated choice, mulitsite travel cost model was estimated using a nested logit framework with decision nodes for participation and site type (Great Lakes or Inland Waters). The estimates from this model are consistent with expectations and utility theory. For individual anglers, net value per day is estimated to be $29 with corresponding seasonal values of $503. Average annual lost per angler for a county closure is about $32. The above results are informative as a demonstration that this data can be used to estimate individual and state-level net values of recreational angling in NY. Of greater importance to the authors is to get feedback ideas of how to best model and compare results across the three survey periods.

20) Benefit Transfer Without Apology: A Decision Theoretic Approach

Olvar Bergland* (Norwegian University of Life Sciences)

W3133 Objective 2

Abstract: Benefit transfer is a collection of methods widely used in cost-benefit analysis and policy analysis to assess environmental values in contexts where original valuation work is deemed too expensive and/or too time-consuming. The essence of benefit transfer is conditional or unconditional prediction of environmental values in a new context. This paper develops a statistical decision theoretic model of project evaluation under informational uncertainty. The model makes explicit the trade-off between either acquiring additional information through costly original valuation work or relying on past studies through some form for benefit transfer analysis. A hierarchical Bayesian model specifies one prior for the parameters governing the distribution of values in a given context and a hyperprior capturing the distribution of these parameters across different, but exchangeable, contexts. The marginal posterior distribution for the hyperparameters can be utilized to construct a posterior predictive distribution of environmental values across new contexts. The estimation of this hierarchical Bayesian model utilizes data from past studies and as such represents the benefit transfer model. Using the posterior predictive distribution, the expected value of a new valuation study can be calculated as the expected value of sample information. The decision criteria is that only when the expected value of sample information exceeds the study costs will original valuation work be justified. If the expected value of sample information is less than the cost of conducting a new valuation study the expected predicted valuation obtained from the posterior distribution is the proper benefit transfer value to use in a cost benefit setting. The method is illustrated with an application to water quality in Norway. A number of past contingent valuation studies, employing different value elicitation methods, are used to obtain the predictive posterior distribution using MCMC simulation with data augmentation. The expected value of information is calculated resulting in recommendation about when a new valuation study is justified or not.

Keywords: Benefit transfer, statistical decision theory, Bayesian models, exchangability.

JEL Classification: Q51, C44, C11, D61.

21) The Distribution of Maximum Utility in the Multinomial Probit Random Utility Model

Scott Shonkwiler* (Univ. of Georgia)

W3133 Objective 2

Abstract: The multinomial probit random utility model has a number of attractive properties and advances in computational power and use of probability simulators like the GHK make application to large multi‐site models feasible. However the multinomial probit RUM has no closed form expression for expected maximum utility. This paper proposes two statistical approaches for calculating expected maximum utility in the multinomial RUM and compares them to the simulation approaches used by Chen & Cosslett (1998). In terms of calculating the distribution of the mean benefit from an amenity change, an approach based on the applying the delta method to the moment generating function of the expected maximum utility is found to be computationally less demanding than simulation approaches.

22) Is status quo bias design-induced?  Rethinking the role of design selection in choice experiments

Katherine Silz Carson* (U.S. Air Force Academy Harvard Univ.), Susan M. Chilton (Newcastle University), W. George Hutchinson (Queen’s University, Belfast), Riccardo Scarpa (Queen’s University, Belfast)

W-3133 objective: 2

Abstract: Practitioners of environmental economics sometimes use repeated trinary choice experiment surveys to estimate the value of environmental policies and programs for use in policy evaluation. These surveys, originally designed to estimate demand for new goods in marketing and transportation, have several advantages over simpler forms of non‐market valuation: (1) they enable researchers to estimate the marginal value of attributes of the good or service in question, making the results useful for benefits transfer; and (2) because respondents make several choices and choose from choice sets containing three options, efficiency of the willingness to pay estimate are improved over one‐shot, binary choice formats. Despite these benefits, such surveys may have incentive properties which cause the resulting value estimates to be biased. This paper presents a theoretical demonstration that subjects often have an incentive to choose the second‐best option in a repeated trinary choice survey. The model shows that due to the nature of factorial choice set design, the second‐best option in the choice set will often be the status quo option. The paper reports a set of experiments designed to test these theoretical predictions in an induced‐value setting. The experimental results are consistent with the theoretical predictions, demonstrating that repeated trinary choice experiment surveys can generate biased value estimates.

23) Discounting the Distant Future: An Experimental Investigation

Therese C. Grijalva (Weber State Univ.), Jayson L. Lusk (OK State Univ.), and W. Douglass Shaw* (Texas A&M Univ.)

W3133 Objective 2

24) The Value of Great Lakes Beaches in Michigan

Frank Lupi*and Michael Kaplowitz (Michigan State Univ.)

W3133 Objective 2

Under Objective 1 (Land and Water Resource Management in a Changing Environment), the following activities, outputs, and accomplishments can be reported.

Researchers at Illinois, Wyoming, Michigan, and UC Santa Barbara completed a paper that estimates the value to agriculture of improved biocontrol of pests in row crop agriculture and applies that model to generate dollar values for two crops (cucumbers and squash); that paper has been submitted to a journal.

Economists at Illinois worked with ecologists in Australia to publish a paper that studies the results of conservation policy; the paper couples household decisions regarding how much time to spend foraging in local forests with a model of optimal spatial foraging patterns and biodiversity conservation to simulates how much leakage occurs in response to protected areas placed in different parts of a hypothetical forest landscape and how leakage affects biodiversity and human welfare

A collaboration between Illinois and Minnesota has completed new spatial conservation-outcome forecasts for the Prairie Pothole Region and construct spatial data sets suitable for spatial portfolio analysis for two other previously studied conservation problems (Eastern birds, Appalachian salamanders). Those researchers are now using those data sets in work to improve portfolio analysis tools for environmental management under climate change uncertainty. They have also published a paper that demonstrates the dangers of taking shortcuts in using portfolio analysis for spatial conservation planning under climate change uncertainty.

Colorado State University (CSU) in cooperation with the USDA Forest Service’s Pacific Southwest and Southern Research Stations have two coordinated efforts underway. One is a comparative data and analysis of California and Florida household’s willingness to pay for private homeowner (e.g., FIREWISE) versus community fire risk reduction activities. The paper has been accepted for presentation at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists meeting this summer. The second project is to estimate the costs of fuel reduction treatments (mechanical thinning and prescribed burning) in California. The data collection was performed by the USDA Forest Service and CSU is performing the analysis and development of a field fire specialists cost estimating user interface. The USDA Forest Service will test this and then offer training in the tool developed at CSU.

CSU and Northern Arizona University (NAU) completed and published (see Mueller and Loomis, 2014) an analysis of how house prices are affected by wildfires. This research applied quantile regression to determine if there were differential effects of wildfire on house prices depending on the price of the home and hence, the income levels of homeowners. We found such a differential impact, and this information has been provided to the USDA Forest Service.

CSU began collaboration with UN-R to model the economy-wide impacts of rural to urban water transfers under different population growth scenarios in the west.

CSU has constructed a dynamic programming model to measure the value of stored water under different institutional settings, including the existence of trading, lease markets, and restricted trade.  The model is calibrated to the Colorado-Big Thompson project.

A collaboration between researchers at Mississippi State University (Miss. State) and the University of Georgia (UGA) completed an analysis of factors that determine households’ decision to purchase wind hazard insurance when the primary homeowner’s policy excludes it in coastal areas, and the extent of wind-hazard mitigation. A paper summarizing this work is forthcoming in Land Economics.

A collaboration between researchers at Miss. State and Louisiana State University (LSU) completed an analysis of alternative land-reclamation methods for coastal restoration in Louisiana.  This analysis focused on cost and benefit trajectories over time, accounting for both time (discounting) and risk.  A paper reporting the results of this work has been published in Ecological Economics.

Researchers at University of Wyoming have investigated the feasibility of trans-basin water transfers to meet growth in the southwest U.S. Under certain energy costs and distance of conveyance under-allocated sources may be sold to areas where demand is exceeding local supply. This pilot effort has implications for trans-basin deliveries in the arid intermountain west as well.

Researchers at Wyoming and CSU have used survey instruments to determine landowner preferences for potential land conservation arrangements. Sub samples of landowners hold preferences for conservation that are more likely to outweigh financial inducements. This work has implications for a broad array of public and private conservation programs on private lands.

Economists at Oregon State, Minnesota, UC Santa Barbara, and Bowdoin published a paper that shows how to optimally implement the provision of ecosystem services using an incentive-based mechanism under the common problems of spatial dependent environmental benefits and asymmetric information regarding landowner opportunity costs. The auction mechanism derived in this paper can be used with payments-for-ecosystem services programs, or with programs where the government owns the property rights to land, such as forest concessions.

Researchers at Oregon State, Washington, Minnesota, Florida International, Wisconsin, Bowdoin, and UC Santa Barbara published a paper that projects land-use change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem services for the lower 48 states. The paper examines food and timber production, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat responses to land-use change as a function of various policy and commodity price scenarios.

A team at Oregon State, Wisconsin, and UC Santa Barbara combined an economic land use model with ecological models to examine threats to aquatic systems derived from land-use change across the lower 48 states.

Researchers at Oregon State, Idaho, and Wisconsin examined the effects of decentralized governance on timber extraction in European Russia using multiple periods of satellite imagery and econometric methods.

Researchers at Virginia Tech estimated econometric models on the effect of length of residency on urban residential water demand. Our results indicate that water use increases with residency due to a shift in landscaping preferences. We shared these findings with the local water agency in Reno/Sparks, Nevada, and with peers and practitioners at an urban water workshop at Arizona State University.

Researchers at Iowa State University have made progress on several working papers this past year, focused on advancing stated and revealed preference methods used to value environmental amenities. A first working paper draws on unique data from the Iowa Lakes Project and the Iowa Rivers Project, also funded jointly by the USEPA and Iowa Department of Natural Resources. The paper proposes a modeling technique that incorporates omitted sites in a recreational demand model even when one only has partial information about these sites. The paper demonstrates that the aggregation model with partial trip information can recover underlying preferences consistently in a variety of settings, which is an improvement upon conventional models that may lead to biased estimates.

A second working paper by researchers at Iowa State investigates the consistency of consumer preferences over time and revealed versus stated preference data. The study draws on data from the Iowa Lakes Project, which provides information on recreational usage patterns over several years and for approximately 130 lakes, along with detailed information on the water quality for each lake. This study investigates the consistency of consumer preferences over time and between actual versus anticipated visitation patterns from the unique panel data.

Researchers at the University of Delaware worked with people at various institutions to complete eight papers related land and water resource management in a changing environment that were either published in 2014 or are forthcoming.  Several of these papers looked at improving the cost-effectiveness in agri-environmental programs either through the use of reverse auctions, using optimal conservation targeting, or combining the reverse auctions and optimal targeting. Other papers used experimental economics techniques to improve the sustainability of groundwater use.

Researchers at the University of Rhode Island (URI) conducted a field experiment with 97 residents in the Scituate Reservoir Watershed in which the "suppliers" of improved water quality and its beneficiaries of those services make decisions through a market-like process on both sides of the market. In this market process, consumers reveal their marginal willingness to contribute payment for improvements in water quality, which is then used to construct an average revenue curve to serve as a demand curve. They also conducted a reverse auction on the supply side, in which livestock owners bid for payments to adopt best management practices for manure management. They used the spatially-explicit Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to quantify the effect of on-farm management practices to the resultant changes in water quality. The information from the bids and the resulting changes in water quality from SWAT allow construction of the supply curve for water quality improvements. The average revenue and supply curves combine to determine a market clearing price.

Under Objective 2 (Economic Valuation Methods), the following activities, outputs, and accomplishments can be reported.

A methodological investigation of strategies to overcome hypothetical bias in stated preference contingent valuation surveys was undertaken and published in 2014 (See Loomis, 2014).

A contingent behavior analysis was used to quantify the consumer surplus and predicted electricity bills for rural villages in Rwanda (paper under review).

A joint estimation framework was developed to estimate contingent behavior and valuation questions answered by the same individuals. The technique was applied to survey data from rural Rwanda.

A collaboration between researchers at Miss. State and LSU is focused on ecosystem service valuation in two Gulf Coastal locations, focused on three habitat types and four ecosystem services provided by those habitats. This work also focuses on differences in elicitation methods.  One paper has been submitted to a journal and another is in prep for submission.

Researchers at Miss. State examined whether people reveal their unconditionally most-preferred alternative in choice experiments. Results were presented at a departmental seminar at the University of Alabama, Department of Economics, Finance and Legal Studies and the manuscript based on this research is forthcoming in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy.

Researchers at Virginia Tech estimated econometric models to assess the importance of accuracy in geo-coding and tree damage assessment on accurately relating home values to MPB damage. Our finding that both matter in a substantial fashion was shared with the U.S. Forest Service, and presented at Clark University (MA).

Under Objective 3 (Integrated Ecosystem Services Valuation and Management), the following activities, outputs, and accomplishments can be reported.

Researchers at Illinois and Oregon have refined the statistical analyses of the results of choice experiment surveys conducted to estimate the values people place on reduced flooding, improved water quality, and improved aquatic habitat in and in the Chicago and Portland OR metropolitan areas. They are developing a theoretical model of optimal stormwater management policy.

Researchers in North Dakota finalized the assessment of the benefits and costs of a system of wastewater recycling in the Bakken oil production region and revised a paper for publication.

Working with CSU Extension Service, members of W3133 collected and analyzed data on agrotourism in Colorado (see publication by Hill, et al, 2015). This analysis provided information to farmers and ranchers about the types of activities sought by agrotourists, how far they would travel, number of trips, and their spending.

CSU conducted an analysis of recreational whitewater boating in Colorado. This information estimated not only the economic value of this activity but how the value of that activity changed with instream flows. The paper was presented at the Western Agricultural Economics Association in summer of 2014.

CSU, Utah State University (USU), and University of Wyoming undertook a study of the economic value of improving water quality in Utah’s lakes and streams. This analysis collected data on household values as well as recreation visitors’ values for improving water quality. A manuscript has been prepared that received a revise and resubmit from Ecological Economics.

Researchers at Iowa State have initiated a new effort to add another year to the Iowa Lakes Project. This continues a panel data set of recreational lake visits for approximately 130 primary lakes in the state of Iowa for the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, and now 2014. The new data set will reinforce the advantages of panel data in recreational demand modeling and trace Iowan behavior over time along with water quality changes. The data also provides an opportunity to examine how social media data may be leveraged as a new source of recreational visitation data in environmental valuation models.

Researchers at the University of Delaware evaluated consumer’s willing to pay for ecosystem services, such as pollination provided by honey bees and water filtration provided by oyster aquaculture.

In addition to the real-money field experiment which only measured values for water quality improvement, researchers at URI also conducted a hypothetical choice experiment with the same subjects to understand the tradeoffs and values associated with water quality, restoration or preservation, and risk in the delivery of the ecosystem services. To analyze the spatial relationship of the demand for ecosystem services, the choice experiment data were georeferenced with the location of the subjects' residence. A number of spatial statistics were employed to test the extent of spatial correlation. They found that there was a very weak spatial pattern in the preferences for ecosystem services.

To measure the supply of ecosystem services, researchers at URI calibrated the InVEST model for the Scituate Reservoir Watershed. InVEST is a decision support tool for ecosystem services developed by The Nature Conservancy, Stanford University, and other institutions. A few scenarios for future land use change were constructed and the predicted changes in ecosystem services were simulated in InVEST for the watershed. The results were shared with NRICD, NRCS, and Providence Water.

Bastian, C. T., K. T. Coatney, R. Mealor, D. T. Taylor, and P. Meiman. “Priority Weighting of Nature Versus Finances in Land Management Attitudes of Rural Exurban Landowners.” Landscape and Urban Planning: 127(July 2014): 65-74.

Bode, M., Tulloch, A. I. T., Mills, M., Venter, O. and W. Ando, A. 2014. “A Conservation Planning Approach to Mitigate the Impacts of Leakage from Protected Area Networks.” Conservation Biology. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12434.

Caffey, R.H., H. Wang, and D.R. Petrolia. 2014. “Trajectory Economics:  Assessing the Flow of Ecosystem Services from Coastal Restoration.” Ecological Economics 100: 74-84.

Castledine, A., K. Moeltner, M.K. Price, and S. Stoddard. 2014. "Free to Choose: Promoting Conservation by Relaxing Outdoor Watering Restrictions." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 107(A): 324-343.

Dissanayake, S.T.M. and A.W. Ando. 2014. “Valuing Grassland Restoration: Proximity to Substitutes and Tradeoffs Among Conservation Attributes.” Land Economics 90: 237-259.

Duke J.D., S.J. Dundas, R.J. Johnston, and K.D. Messer. 2014. “Prioritizing Payment for Environmental Services: Using Nonmarket Benefits for Optimal Selection.” Ecological Economics. 105: 319-329.

Fooks, J., N. Higgins, K.D. Messer, J. Duke, D. Hellerstein, and L. Lynch. Forthcoming. “Conserving Spatially Explicit Benefits in Ecosystem Service Markets: Experimental Tests of Network Bonuses and Spatial Targeting” American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Fooks, J., K.D. Messer, and J. Duke. 2015. “Dynamic Entry, Reverse Auctions, and the Purchase of Environmental Services.” Land Economics. 91(1): 57-75.

Hearne, R., S. Shakya and Q. Yin. 2014. “The Value of Fracking Wastewater Treatment and Recycling Technologies in North Dakota. Journal of Water Reuse and Desalination.” In Press, Uncorrected Proof, Available online 5 November, 2014. doi:10.2166/wrd.2014.153.

Hill, R., J. Loomis. D. Thilmany, M. Sullins. 2015. Economic Values of Agritourism to Visitors: A Multi-destination Hurdle Travel Cost Model of Demand. Tourism Economics 20(5): 1047- 1065.

Hodges, A., K. Hansen and D. McLeod. 2014. “The Economics of Bulk Water Transport in Southern California.” Resources 3(4): 703-720. http://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/3/4/703 Hwang, J., D.R. Petrolia, and M.G. Interis. 2014. “Valuation, Consequentiality, and Opt-Out Responses to Stated Preference Surveys.” Agricultural & Resource Economics Review 43(3): 471-88.

Interis, M.G., C., Xu, D. Petrolia, and K. Coatney. “Examining Unconditional Preference Revelation in Choice Experiments: A Voting Game Approach.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy (forthcoming).

Interis, M.G. and D.R. Petrolia. 2014. “Consequentiality Effects in Binary- and Multinomial- Choice Settings.” Journal of Agricultural & Resource Economics 39(2): 1-16.

Jeon, Hocheol. 2014. “Three Essays on Environmental Economics.” PhD dissertation, Iowa State University.

Johnston, R. and K. Moeltner. 2014. "Meta-Modeling and Benefit Transfer: The Empirical Relevance of Source-Consistency in Welfare Measures." Environmental and Resource Economics 59: 337-361.

Lawler, J., Lewis, D.J., Nelson, E., Plantinga, A.J., Polasky, S., Withey, J., Helmers, D., Martinuzzi, S., and V. Radeloff. 2014.  “Projected Land-Use Change Impacts on U.S. Ecosystem Services.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111(20): 7492-7497.

Li, J., J. Michael, J. Duke, K.D. Messer, and J. Suter. 2014. “Behavioral Response to Contamination Risk Information in a Spatially Explicit Groundwater Environment: Experimental Evidence.” Water Resources Research. 50: 6390-6405.

Liu, Z., J. Suter, K.D. Messer, J. Duke, and H. Michael. 2014. “Strategic Entry and Externalities in Groundwater Resources: Evidence from the Lab.” Resource and Energy Economics. 38: 181- 197.

Loomis, J. 2014. “Strategies for Overcoming Hypothetical Bias in Stated Preference Surveys.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 39(1): 34-46.

Loomis, J. and J. McTernan. 2014. “Economic Value of Instream Flow for Non-Commercial Whitewater Boating Using Recreation Demand and Contingent Valuation Methods.” Environmental Management 53(3): 510-519.

Mallory, M.L. and A.W. Ando. 2014. “Implementing Efficient Conservation Portfolio Design.” Resource and Energy Economics 38: 1-18.

Martinuzzi, S., Januchowski-Hartley, S.R., Pracheil, B.M., McIntyre, P.R., Plantinga, A.J., Lewis, D.J., and V.C. Radeloff. 2014. “Threats and Opportunities for Freshwater Conservation under Future Land Use Change Scenarios in the United States.” Global Change Biology 20: 113- 124.

Messer, K.D., M. Kecinski, R. Hirsch, and X. Tang. Forthcoming. “Applying Multiple Knapsack Optimization to Improve the Cost Effectiveness of Land Conservation” Land Economics.

Messer, K.D., J. Duke, and L. Lynch. 2014. “Applying Experimental Economics to Land Economics: Public Information and Auction Efficiency in Land Preservation Markets.” in the Oxford Handbook of Land Economics. J. Duke and J. Wu editors. Oxford Press.

Moeltner, K and R.S. Rosenberger. 2014. "Cross-Context Benefit Transfer: A Bayesian Search for Information Pools." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 96: 469-488.

Mueller, J. and J. Loomis. 2014. “Does the Estimated Impacts of Wildfires Vary with Housing Price Distribution?  A Quantile Regression Approach.” Land Use Policy 41: 121-127.

Petrolia, D.R. J. Hwang, C.E. Landry, and K.H. Coble. 2015. “Wind Insurance and Mitigation in the Coastal Zone.” Land Economics 91(2): 272-95.

Petrolia, D.R., M.G. Interis, J. Hwang. 2014. “America’s Wetland?  A National Survey of Willingness to Pay for Restoration of Louisiana’s Coastal Wetlands.” Marine Resource Economics 29(1): 17-37.

Polasky, S., Lewis, D.J., Plantinga, A.J., and E. Nelson. 2014. “Implementing the Optimal Provision of Ecosystem Services.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(17): 6248-6253.

Wendland, K., Lewis, D.J., and J. Alix-Garcia. 2014. “The Effect of Decentralized Governance on Timber Extraction in European Russia.” Environmental and Resource Economics 57: 19-40.

Wu, S., J. Fooks, K.D. Messer, and D. Delaney. Forthcoming. “Consumer Demand for Local Honey” Applied Economics.

Yi, Donggyu. 2014. “Three Studies on Environmental Valuation.” PhD dissertation, Iowa State University.

PRESENTATIONS

Ando, A.W. “Linking Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: From Expert Opinion to Prediction & Application.” Energy and Environment Forum at Howard H. Baker Jr Center for Public Policy, University of Tennessee. November 2014.

Ando, A.W. “How Should We Make Environmental Investments When the Future Climate is Uncertain?” 1960 Scholars Lecture. Williams College. October 2014.

Ando, A.W. “A Conservation Planning Approach to Mitigating the Impacts of Leakage from Protected Area Networks.” UC Santa Barbara Land Use Workshop. May 2014.

Economic Value of Instream Flow for Non-Commercial Whitewater Boating Using Travel Cost and Contingent Valuation Methods. Western Agricultural Economics Association, Colorado Springs, Colorado. June 2014.

Interis, M.G. and D.R. Petrolia. “Coastal Ecosystem Services of the Gulf of Mexico: Does their Value Depend on the Providing Habitat?” Selected paper, 2015 SAEA Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, January 31 - February 13 2014.

Gill, CA and E Uchida. A Spatial Model of Willingness to Pay for Manure Management in the Scituate Reservoir System. Presented at the 2014 Annual Meeting of the Northeast Agricultural and Resource Economics Association. Morganstown, WV. 2014.

Interis, M.G., C., Xu, D. Petrolia, and K. Coatney. “Examining Unconditional Preference Revelation in Choice Experiments: A Voting Game Approach.” Departmental seminar, Department of Economics, Finance and Legal Studies, University of Alabama, October 2014.

Kwabena K., D.R. Petrolia, K.H. Coble, A. Harri, and A. Williams.  “Producer Preferences for Contracts on a Risky Bioenergy Crop.”  Selected paper, 2015 SAEA Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, January 31 - February 13.

Lewis, D.J. “Does the Conservation of Land Provide a Net Habitat Gain in the Presence of Land Market Feedbacks?” Land Use and Ecosystem Services Workshop, UC Santa Barbara. May 2014.

Lewis, D.J. “Projected Land-Use Change Impacts on U.S. Ecosystem Services” Oregon State University Department of Integrated Biology Seminar Series. March, 2014.

Merrill, N and J Opaluch. Controlling Risks of Cyanobacteria Blooms. Presented at the 2013 Heartland Environmental and Natural Resource Economics Conference; 2014 Annual Meeting of the New England Water and Environment Association. 2014.

Messer, K.D. and P. Ferraro. “Vision for the Center for Behavioral and Experimental Agri- Environmental Policy Research.” Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, October 2014.

Messer, K.D. “Preserving More with Less.” American Farmland Trust Conference, Hersey, Pennsylvania, May 2014.

Moeltner, K. "Length of Residency and Urban Water Use," 3rd Urban Water Roundtable, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University. February 2015.

Moeltner, K. "Accuracy of Forest Damage Assessment and Geo-coding of Residences: Impact on Hedonic Estimation", Clark University, Worcester, MA. October 2014.

Petrolia, D.R., J. Hwang, and M.G. Interis. “Single-Choice, Repeated-Choice, and Best-Worst Elicitation Formats:  Do Results Differ and by How Much?” Selected paper, AERE-Session Selected paper, 2014 SEA Annual Conference, Atlanta, November 22-24.

Suter, J., S. Collie, J. Duke, K. Messer, and H. Michael. “Experiments on Groundwater Policy at the Extensive and Intensive Margins.” University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, October 2014.

Yan, J., Zarghamee, H., K.D. Messer, H.M. Kaiser and W.D. Schulze. “Can The Voluntary Contribution Mechanism be Efficient? The Role of Social Norms and Automatic Donation in Charitable Giving” Economic Science Association, Fort Lauderdale, FL, October 2014.