Expected Outcomes:

The goal of this project is to provide information on integrating weather's role in crop growth and development in crop production management systems. Key end
users will include producers, crop consultants, agribusinesses, and policy makers involved with production of corn soybean, sorghum, wheat, and other crops. This
information is needed to better manage for risk' reduction and increased profitability in the face of economic uncertainty and climatic variability.

As part of the technological transfer, software to illustrate the trade-offs associated with crop selection, planting date, irrigation, cropping rotation, and harvesting
schedules will be supported on the internet so that producers can assess their management goals. Realistic scenarios could be run by federal agencies to evaluate
potential policies.

The committee expects to complete the proposed research by leveraging funds from other sources. Applications for outside funding for portions of the research will
be submitted to grant programs of the Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, Department of Energy United Soybean Board, State Commodity
Commissions, etc. It is expected that proposals to ' study crop variability and climate/soils/crop simulation can be advanced to address agency funding priorities. The
ratio of leveraged external funds to the regional research funds provided by AES will be documented.

NC-94 Members plan their annual meeting in Washington, D.C. in October of 1999. The agenda will include opportunities to host discussions with agency
personnel interested in climate and agricultural production.

Any significant relationships that identify natural cycles or ENSO impacts on crop production will reduce risks to producers in direct proportion to the recent
improvements in federal forecasting of El Nino/La Nina episodes. An understanding of the synoptic weather patterns associated with ENSO conditions offers the
potential to better understand the linkage between this phenomena and the large scale weather and crop production. This information will help producers reduce risk.

NC-94 members feel that the USDA will need to define it's requirements for weather data in the near future. The rapid demise of the NWS Agricultural Weather
program is indicative of how fast major change can take place. It is imperative that defensible information on the monitoring needs be brought to light when such
decisions are made. Decisions on the appropriate size of the Coop Network loom ahead. The NAS report recommends that a determination be made of the
minimum number of stations that would meet all anticipated needs of major long term users including agriculture. Obviously, USDA can benefit as this project
produces reliable and quantitative information on the weather variables needed and the density of sites required to meet agricultural needs.

Results from the study will include which crop(s) and cropping practice(s) optimize the use of natural resources. A series of maps will feature the areas of optimum
climate and soil conditions for the major crops grown under different management and economic scenarios in the North Central Region. The maps will provide a
basis for producers to evaluate the crops best suited for their area. Any results indicating that a switch in crops during El Nino/La Nina or drought episodes will be
highlighted. This will provide agricultural producers with new risk avoidance information.

A GIS application (maps and graphs) will display average crop development progress weekly across the entire North Central Region for any growing season in the
record as well as provide the probabilities of reaching those levels by specific dates for each crop. These graphs and displays will allow scientists and producers to
observe typical as well as unusual rates of crop and pest development across the region. This will provide background information for use in planning and developing
IPM strategies. This will in turn reduce production risks. For example, knowledge of whether the current season or crop is early or late is valuable from several
perspectives. If producers know before hand whether a season will accelerate or slow crop development, they can adjust harvest dates by planting earlier or later
maturing varieties, or they can opt to plant another crop. In other cases the producer may time the planting so the crop reaches insect or disease susceptible stages
either before or after the associated pest has emerged or peaked. This is essential for sunflower, wheat, and barley insects and diseases. As a result producers can
reduce pesticide use, production costs, and economic risk. Likewise, the exposure of people and animals to pesticides will decrease. For these scenarios to work,
we must engage agribusinesses and producers to raise their awareness in regard to the use of new research results in decision making.

Coupling phenological data with GDD data will result in more timely projections for the current year since automated weather stations across the region can provide
current GDD data. For example, the ability to predict or project critical growth stages would allow producers to identify at risk fields and concentrate their scouting
and control efforts.

The agricultural production system can be better (more profitably) managed if our knowledge of the weather and its influence on the system is taken into
consideration.